Wearwolf XC Killer kittens part something Game over! - Page 7

EagleFan · 03-31-2009, 10:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

does it actualy say anywhere in the rules there are 3 wolves?

It doesn't. I am guessing 3 wolves, maybe incorrectly, but that would seem more likely than 2 with a stray role in play.

EagleFan · 03-31-2009, 10:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schmidty

I think it's interesting that EF is pushing toward Lathum, who I know at least did nothing last night, and also apparantly knows who every wolf is, but won't tell us (post 295).

I don't know, I think I know. I am not going to tip my hand too early. I want to give everyone a chance to talk it out so I can either change my opinion or solidify it.

EagleFan · 03-31-2009, 10:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I'm aware of that but it is such a transparent play. As a wolf I would be trying to cast suspiscoun on a villager if I am caught.

Oddly enough one of the last few games in which I played you were a wolf and making this exact argument. "It's too obvious to be a wolf play" You then proceeded to turn up as a wolf.

Lathum · 03-31-2009, 11:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Then why even bother asking for input from Schmidty and Jackal in the previous thread? You ask for them to present their case and then vote without even giving time for their response?

you know how fast these things can snowball. I wanted to get a vote in early, I can always change if need be.

I also think it is interesting how quick Jackal voted, means he wins in a tie.

Passacaglia · 04-01-2009, 06:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

you know how fast these things can snowball. I wanted to get a vote in early, I can always change if need be.

I also think it is interesting how quick Jackal voted, means he wins in a tie.

What's interesting about that?

DaddyTorgo · 04-01-2009, 07:34 AM

@ post #250 - catching up. seems like i should have checked the thread last night...holy fucko.

was trying something new thanks to the 2pm deadline and giving the thread a break at night

Passacaglia · 04-01-2009, 08:09 AM

Here's what I've got:

Quote:

Schmidty -- The Jackal (209), Abe Sargent (211), Poli (274)
The Jackal -- Schmidty (218), Lathum (223)

Passacaglia · 04-01-2009, 08:09 AM

So that leaves me, EagleFan, DaddyTorgo, and USFLTecmo still to vote.

DaddyTorgo · 04-01-2009, 08:31 AM

Let me lay out some thoughts:

Jackel:
IIRC his post came like 5 minutes after deadline? So in 5 minutes he got his PM and read it and had an entire self-discussion about coming out or not and managed to type up that post and post it? That seems really really quick. Makes me think that that scenario someone posted (forget who) about why it would make sense numerically as a fake reveal may be true. Came out early without any pressure. Only viewed Schmidty so has no corroberation.

Schmidty:
Was the second reveal. Said Lathum was good (corroberated by him). What else am I missing as a negative on Schmidty?

DaddyTorgo · 04-01-2009, 08:39 AM

I feel like I'm missing something in the case against Schmidty and that's causing me to hold back on laying a vote yet - any thoughts EF?

EagleFan · 04-01-2009, 08:42 AM

DT, just wanted to point out what was pointed out to me as I was saying the same thing. Schmidty didn't say Lathum was good, just that he didn't do anything night one. He followed him and saw nothing.

You bring up a point I didn't even look at which is the timing of Jackal's post. I'll have to look at that a little farther. Granted, since it looks like he was online when everything was going down it could be possible as it depends on when he received the PM and not when the post of the results happened.

EagleFan · 04-01-2009, 08:44 AM

The only case against Schmidty is from the Jackal reveal so it depends on who you believe.

If Jackal is a wolf there is also the approximate 1 in 6 shot that he happens to reveal and pick the person who actually has the role in which he is revealing to "out".

DaddyTorgo · 04-01-2009, 08:48 AM

good point semantically there EF about what Schmidty said about Lathum

The speed at which Jackel came out with it and the level of thought he put into the process of coming out just seem "off" a bit. Like I've done reveals right after deadline based on info I just got and they're typically very rushed. Jackel's seemed very well put-together.

EagleFan · 04-01-2009, 08:55 AM

Thinking about this a little more. If Jackal is a wolf and fake reveals there are a few options that could happen:

1) There is no actual stray role in the game. In this case it's almost a slam dunk for the wolves as there would be no counter reveal and it could come down to his word aganst Schmidty's who would not have anything to come back with other than "I'm not a wolf".

2) There is a stray and it's not the person he outs. In this case he could have just built a CoT as the real stray may come out and reveal who they followed which could give us two people to eliminate from suspicion (the outed person and the real stray).

3) There is a stray and it's the person outed. It's now claim versus counter claim.

Usually a wolf would only fake reveal quickly if he were caught doing something at night. Jackal was not caught doing something as far as we know since Schmidty came out saying he followed Lathum and saw nothing.

EagleFan · 04-01-2009, 08:59 AM

It still keeps coming back to the numbers game which I threw out as a possibility. With the wolves up two people already it would not make sense to fake reveal until they see where today starts to go. UNLESS there was already another wolf under the gun day one, in that case they could make the number game move to try to "win" the game with that move. Time to look back at yesterday a bit closer.

EagleFan · 04-01-2009, 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Since I was following PF, I saw what happened to him. That's usually how I've seen spy roles work.

This statement bothers me. Why would the real stray need to say that last sentence?

I am probably overthinking things.

EagleFan · 04-01-2009, 09:16 AM

For the record though it is true. In one game a spy saw me attack someone who was converted and then outed me and the convert pretty much stacking the odds too far against the wolves that game.

That actually gives the wolves a little incentive to try to bring out the real spy if that is the case, hoping if Schmidty is not the spy that the real spy would reveal.

EagleFan · 04-01-2009, 09:31 AM

vote Schmidty

If he is good we stay away from Jackal tomorrow as he is the brutal and needs to be the last one to go so we can win with a sole survivor if we get the other(s).

DaddyTorgo · 04-01-2009, 09:34 AM

hmmm - you are a crafty thinkerizer mr EagleFan

EagleFan · 04-01-2009, 09:34 AM

Other suspects:
Pass - something doesn't sit well with his day one flopping
Abe - was he being saved?

If Schmidty is good these two go right to the top of my list.

Other:
Lathum - always good to look his way where wolves are concerned

DaddyTorgo · 04-01-2009, 09:35 AM

why assume Jackal is brutal?

EagleFan · 04-01-2009, 09:37 AM

I'm back and forth on a remote desktop to work so I will be around to discuss but may not immediately respond even though it says I am here.

Passacaglia · 04-01-2009, 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Other suspects:
Pass - something doesn't sit well with his day one flopping
Abe - was he being saved?

If Schmidty is good these two go right to the top of my list.

Other:
Lathum - always good to look his way where wolves are concerned

What does Schmidty being good have to do with me?

EagleFan · 04-01-2009, 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

why assume Jackal is brutal?

If he is a wolf fake revealing it would only make sense for him to do so as the brutal, especially since he was not in danger. If they are playing the numbers game they want the brutal used early to get that win condition.

Passacaglia · 04-01-2009, 09:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

why assume Jackal is brutal?

The idea is that if Schmidty is good, then we'd go after The Jackal next, and the wolves know it -- so if we go after him, they'd make us lose another one.

EagleFan · 04-01-2009, 09:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

What does Schmidty being good have to do with me?

You saved Abe. If the reveal was due to worry that a wolf was in danger and to try to avert our attention it could very easily be because not only was Abe in the running but your vote to save him would be looked into.

Passacaglia · 04-01-2009, 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

You saved Abe. If the reveal was due to worry that a wolf was in danger and to try to avert our attention it could very easily be because not only was Abe in the running but your vote to save him would be looked into.

I saved Lathum -- Abe didn't have any votes on him at the end of Day 1.

DaddyTorgo · 04-01-2009, 09:44 AM

Vote Count

Schmidty -- The Jackal (209), Abe Sargent (211), Poli (274), EagleFan (318)
The Jackal -- Schmidty (218), Lathum (223)

To vote: Pass, DaddyTorgo, USFL

DaddyTorgo · 04-01-2009, 09:54 AM

I guess I'm convinced...somewhat. For now.

VOTE SCHMIDTY

DaddyTorgo · 04-01-2009, 09:55 AM

Vote Count
Schmidty -- The Jackal (209), Abe Sargent (211), Poli (274), EagleFan (318), DT (329)
The Jackal -- Schmidty (218), Lathum (223)

To vote: Pass, USFL

EagleFan · 04-01-2009, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I saved Lathum -- Abe didn't have any votes on him at the end of Day 1.

That's right. Wow, what was I thinking. This makes things much different. I need to rethink things even more. I had remembered there being Abe votes and thought he was a target (probably confusing this with last game).

Passacaglia · 04-01-2009, 10:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

That's right. Wow, what was I thinking. This makes things much different. I need to rethink things even more. I had remembered there being Abe votes and thought he was a target (probably confusing this with last game).

Abe had a couple votes for a while, from both me and Lathum. Then I unvoted Abe to vote Lathum, and Lathum unvoted Abe to vote me. But all that was well before deadline.

EagleFan · 04-01-2009, 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Abe had a couple votes for a while, from both me and Lathum. Then I unvoted Abe to vote Lathum, and Lathum unvoted Abe to vote me. But all that was well before deadline.

I've been back and forth between this and getting flooded with work emails. Hopefully I haven't answered any of them with WW references.

I just remember the Abe thing standing out for some reason, have to see why.

Passacaglia · 04-01-2009, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I've been back and forth between this and getting flooded with work emails. Hopefully I haven't answered any of them with WW references.

I just remember the Abe thing standing out for some reason, have to see why.

No problem -- it's obviously not something we need to hash out now.

DaddyTorgo · 04-01-2009, 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I've been back and forth between this and getting flooded with work emails. Hopefully I haven't answered any of them with WW references.

lol i always worry about that kind of thing too!

EagleFan · 04-01-2009, 10:25 AM

That changes my opinion on the vote a little now. It would make more sense that Schmidty would follow Lathum than Jackal would follow PF with Lathum being in trouble day one and PF being silent. I can't speak for Jackal but my list of who to follow for day one would have been Lathum, Pass, Abe with PF not cracking the top 3.

I really need to stop overthinking things.

Abe Sargent · 04-01-2009, 10:31 AM

Occam's Razor

EagleFan · 04-01-2009, 10:44 AM

Schrodinger's cat

Poli · 04-01-2009, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Normally I prolly would have voted Poli, cause I don;t like people voting due to previous game issues.

I should have voted for you, I guess. I don't like people that don't like cats.

DaddyTorgo · 04-01-2009, 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Schrodinger's cat

The Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle?

DaddyTorgo · 04-01-2009, 11:11 AM

that's another good point EF

*pulls hair out*

DaddyTorgo · 04-01-2009, 11:23 AM

leaning towards switching my vote...

The Jackal · 04-01-2009, 11:25 AM

Why's that, DT? I'm happy to answer anything.

The Jackal · 04-01-2009, 11:29 AM

I followed PF on a gut feeling that he was either a wolf or that he'd be targeted .. I knew the people in the vote wouldn't be targeted and I figured the seer would scan at least one of them.

DaddyTorgo · 04-01-2009, 11:33 AM

some of the stuff i said earlier, EF's points in 336, the liklehood of their being a wolf under the gun on d1 in that 3-way...

The Jackal · 04-01-2009, 11:35 AM

Right, I just answered EF's points from 336. I assumed that none of Lathum, Abe, and Pass would be targeted for the kill, and I wasn't convinced at the time that any of them were wolves. PF on the other hand, playing it silent, could've been the seer/bodyguard or a wolf, and boy did I predict their attack well.

The Jackal · 04-01-2009, 11:36 AM

I'm curious to know who EF thinks the wolves are, as it might influence my orders, but I know who I'm following as of now (assuming I don't get brutal killed).

The Jackal · 04-01-2009, 11:37 AM

Futhermore, if I was a wolf trying for delay tactics, why would the wolves nominate someone who didn't even have a vote on them the first day to fake a reveal? I wasn't under any heat, if I was a wolf, it would've been dumb.

Passacaglia · 04-01-2009, 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I'm curious to know who EF thinks the wolves are, as it might influence my orders, but I know who I'm following as of now (assuming I don't get brutal killed).

Are you following someone you think will be a wolf or a victim?

The Jackal · 04-01-2009, 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

good point semantically there EF about what Schmidty said about Lathum

The speed at which Jackel came out with it and the level of thought he put into the process of coming out just seem "off" a bit. Like I've done reveals right after deadline based on info I just got and they're typically very rushed. Jackel's seemed very well put-together.

I'm a writer, that's the only reason I can come up with that my reveal was "well put-together." Another reason I went for it so early is because I didn't want to wait until close to the deadline or give the wolves a chance to successfully deflect the attention if I tried to go after Schmidty and no one else followed.

04-01-2009, 07:34 AM	#306
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	@ post #250 - catching up. seems like i should have checked the thread last night...holy fucko. was trying something new thanks to the 2pm deadline and giving the thread a break at night __________________ If I've ever helped you and you'd like to buy me a coffee, or just to say thanks, I have my Bitcoin and Ethereum addressed listed below :) BTC: bc1qykhsfyn9vw4ntqfgr0svj4n9tjdgufryh2pxn5 ETH: 0x2AcdC5cd88EA537063553F5b240073bE067BaCa9

04-01-2009, 08:31 AM	#309
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	Let me lay out some thoughts: Jackel: IIRC his post came like 5 minutes after deadline? So in 5 minutes he got his PM and read it and had an entire self-discussion about coming out or not and managed to type up that post and post it? That seems really really quick. Makes me think that that scenario someone posted (forget who) about why it would make sense numerically as a fake reveal may be true. Came out early without any pressure. Only viewed Schmidty so has no corroberation. Schmidty: Was the second reveal. Said Lathum was good (corroberated by him). What else am I missing as a negative on Schmidty? __________________ If I've ever helped you and you'd like to buy me a coffee, or just to say thanks, I have my Bitcoin and Ethereum addressed listed below :) BTC: bc1qykhsfyn9vw4ntqfgr0svj4n9tjdgufryh2pxn5 ETH: 0x2AcdC5cd88EA537063553F5b240073bE067BaCa9

04-01-2009, 10:31 AM	#337
Abe Sargent Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Catonsville, MD	Occam's Razor __________________ Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent

04-01-2009, 08:09 AM	#308
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	So that leaves me, EagleFan, DaddyTorgo, and USFLTecmo still to vote.

04-01-2009, 08:39 AM	#310
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	I feel like I'm missing something in the case against Schmidty and that's causing me to hold back on laying a vote yet - any thoughts EF?

04-01-2009, 08:42 AM	#311
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	DT, just wanted to point out what was pointed out to me as I was saying the same thing. Schmidty didn't say Lathum was good, just that he didn't do anything night one. He followed him and saw nothing. You bring up a point I didn't even look at which is the timing of Jackal's post. I'll have to look at that a little farther. Granted, since it looks like he was online when everything was going down it could be possible as it depends on when he received the PM and not when the post of the results happened.

04-01-2009, 08:44 AM	#312
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	The only case against Schmidty is from the Jackal reveal so it depends on who you believe. If Jackal is a wolf there is also the approximate 1 in 6 shot that he happens to reveal and pick the person who actually has the role in which he is revealing to "out".

04-01-2009, 08:48 AM	#313
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	good point semantically there EF about what Schmidty said about Lathum The speed at which Jackel came out with it and the level of thought he put into the process of coming out just seem "off" a bit. Like I've done reveals right after deadline based on info I just got and they're typically very rushed. Jackel's seemed very well put-together.

04-01-2009, 08:55 AM	#314
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	Thinking about this a little more. If Jackal is a wolf and fake reveals there are a few options that could happen: 1) There is no actual stray role in the game. In this case it's almost a slam dunk for the wolves as there would be no counter reveal and it could come down to his word aganst Schmidty's who would not have anything to come back with other than "I'm not a wolf". 2) There is a stray and it's not the person he outs. In this case he could have just built a CoT as the real stray may come out and reveal who they followed which could give us two people to eliminate from suspicion (the outed person and the real stray). 3) There is a stray and it's the person outed. It's now claim versus counter claim. Usually a wolf would only fake reveal quickly if he were caught doing something at night. Jackal was not caught doing something as far as we know since Schmidty came out saying he followed Lathum and saw nothing.

04-01-2009, 08:59 AM	#315
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	It still keeps coming back to the numbers game which I threw out as a possibility. With the wolves up two people already it would not make sense to fake reveal until they see where today starts to go. UNLESS there was already another wolf under the gun day one, in that case they could make the number game move to try to "win" the game with that move. Time to look back at yesterday a bit closer.

04-01-2009, 09:16 AM	#317
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	For the record though it is true. In one game a spy saw me attack someone who was converted and then outed me and the convert pretty much stacking the odds too far against the wolves that game. That actually gives the wolves a little incentive to try to bring out the real spy if that is the case, hoping if Schmidty is not the spy that the real spy would reveal.

04-01-2009, 09:31 AM	#318
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	vote Schmidty If he is good we stay away from Jackal tomorrow as he is the brutal and needs to be the last one to go so we can win with a sole survivor if we get the other(s).

04-01-2009, 09:34 AM	#319
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	hmmm - you are a crafty thinkerizer mr EagleFan

04-01-2009, 09:34 AM	#320
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	Other suspects: Pass - something doesn't sit well with his day one flopping Abe - was he being saved? If Schmidty is good these two go right to the top of my list. Other: Lathum - always good to look his way where wolves are concerned

04-01-2009, 09:35 AM	#321
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	why assume Jackal is brutal?

04-01-2009, 09:37 AM	#322
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	I'm back and forth on a remote desktop to work so I will be around to discuss but may not immediately respond even though it says I am here.

04-01-2009, 09:44 AM	#328
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	Vote Count Schmidty -- The Jackal (209), Abe Sargent (211), Poli (274), EagleFan (318) The Jackal -- Schmidty (218), Lathum (223) To vote: Pass, DaddyTorgo, USFL

04-01-2009, 09:54 AM	#329
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	I guess I'm convinced...somewhat. For now. VOTE SCHMIDTY

04-01-2009, 09:55 AM	#330
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	Vote Count Schmidty -- The Jackal (209), Abe Sargent (211), Poli (274), EagleFan (318), DT (329) The Jackal -- Schmidty (218), Lathum (223) To vote: Pass, USFL

04-01-2009, 10:25 AM	#336
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	That changes my opinion on the vote a little now. It would make more sense that Schmidty would follow Lathum than Jackal would follow PF with Lathum being in trouble day one and PF being silent. I can't speak for Jackal but my list of who to follow for day one would have been Lathum, Pass, Abe with PF not cracking the top 3. I really need to stop overthinking things.

04-01-2009, 10:44 AM	#338
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	Schrodinger's cat

04-01-2009, 11:11 AM	#341
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	that's another good point EF pulls hair out

04-01-2009, 11:23 AM	#342
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	leaning towards switching my vote...

04-01-2009, 11:25 AM	#343
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Why's that, DT? I'm happy to answer anything.

04-01-2009, 11:29 AM	#344
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	I followed PF on a gut feeling that he was either a wolf or that he'd be targeted .. I knew the people in the vote wouldn't be targeted and I figured the seer would scan at least one of them.

04-01-2009, 11:33 AM	#345
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	some of the stuff i said earlier, EF's points in 336, the liklehood of their being a wolf under the gun on d1 in that 3-way...

04-01-2009, 11:35 AM	#346
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Right, I just answered EF's points from 336. I assumed that none of Lathum, Abe, and Pass would be targeted for the kill, and I wasn't convinced at the time that any of them were wolves. PF on the other hand, playing it silent, could've been the seer/bodyguard or a wolf, and boy did I predict their attack well.

04-01-2009, 11:36 AM	#347
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	I'm curious to know who EF thinks the wolves are, as it might influence my orders, but I know who I'm following as of now (assuming I don't get brutal killed).

04-01-2009, 11:37 AM	#348
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Futhermore, if I was a wolf trying for delay tactics, why would the wolves nominate someone who didn't even have a vote on them the first day to fake a reveal? I wasn't under any heat, if I was a wolf, it would've been dumb.

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