The Trump Presidency – 2016

[Izulde]

Kyler Murray, a Black Man, Was the Number One NFL Draft Pick. Trump Congratulated the Number Two Pick Instead

Trump gonna Trump.

[NobodyHere]

Eh, Trump congratulated a vocal fan of his.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Eh, Trump congratulated a vocal fan of his.

Yup, that was exactly my thinking when I read about this.

Not that Trump ain't racist AF, but he is ALL about people who speak highly of him.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Yup, that was exactly my thinking when I read about this.

Not that Trump ain't racist AF, but he is ALL about people who speak highly of him.

Yeah. This wasn’t really a huge deal. Any normal human would realize how it would be perceived but we all know Trump couldn’t care less about that.

[QuikSand]

Right... but critics manufacturing an outrage-worthy issue out of literally everything is part of the fabric he uses to spin the whole "fake news" defense. It's counterproductive.

Thing is... what this preys on is our collective time/attention limits. Even a right-minded person who vaguely cares about our political dialogue will get caught like this. We can't afford the time to be experts on everything, we need to depend on reliable sources for help in doing that. But when information sources are so hard to sort out between the credible and non, it eludes us. So, we mostly end up gravitating to stuff we want to believe in, amplifying the already-strong confirmation bias we show up with in the first place. It's a vicious cycle.

I don't claim that it was ever a strategy, but Team Trump has certainly figured out how to use "outrage fatigue" it to their advantage.

[digamma]

I've said this before but he is an absolute first ballot Hall of Fame internet troll.

[QuikSand]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/29/u...fed-women.html

Good idea, look into stuff he has written and said publicly and on the record. Doing this after the nomination has been announced, very good. Very strong, very stable.

[ISiddiqui]

Biden is getting quite the bounce in the polls. A few have found him with a commanding lead. I like this Quinniapiac poll because of easy to look at breakdowns:

National (US) Poll - April 30, 2019 - Biden Surging Among Democrats | Quinnipiac University Connecticut

Biden leads substantially among the moderate/conservative Dem leaners (44% of them), but among the Very Liberal Dems & Dem Leaners, Warren leads with 26% (Sanders in 2nd at 19%). The Somewhat Liberals are for Buttigieg with 15% (Warren in 2nd at 12%). Biden is also winning big among non-White Dems & Dem Leaners (42% - Warren is #2 at 11%, Harris is at 9%!). Biden also leads among Dems 40% by a greater margin than Dem Leaners (31%). Dem Leaners like Buttigieg (21%) far more than Dems (6%). The $100k+ set likes Buttigieg (17%) far more than the other economic groups. Apparently they also like Sanders (12%) more than the $50k-$100k (11%) and the <$50k (9%) groups.

[Izulde]

I wouldn't read too much into that bounce. It's just your typical post-announcement bump that will decline over the next few weeks.

[ISiddiqui]

Perhaps, but the bounce is also only slightly up from where he was pre-announcement. The interesting bits are the other folks and who gained and lost from his bounce - seems like Sanders is the one who lost people in the bounce and Warren gained (relatively).

[thesloppy]

Biden's numbers feel like some sort of bubble to me. It's only anecdotal of course (and mostly wishful thinking), but I swear I know/have heard of exactly one person in my entire extended world who is excited by the prospect of Biden running for president.

[ISiddiqui]

My Facebook page (and I am mostly friends with very left people) surprisingly have a number of people who are pro-Biden. It's mostly, I believe, because he is the highest profile moderate Democrat and there are a lot of Democrats who don't want to go too far left.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

My Facebook page (and I am mostly friends with very left people) surprisingly have a number of people who are pro-Biden. It's mostly, I believe, because he is the highest profile moderate Democrat and there are a lot of Democrats who don't want to go too far left.

That seems likely.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

My Facebook page (and I am mostly friends with very left people) surprisingly have a number of people who are pro-Biden. It's mostly, I believe, because he is the highest profile moderate Democrat and there are a lot of Democrats who don't want to go too far left.

I am hearing similar stuff from a sizable number of Democratic politicians I know. Of course, MD was a heavy-establishment Clinton state previously, so maybe that's their/our bent. Maybe proximity to DC affect?

[panerd]

Isn't it kind of like the Game of Thrones thread though? Meaning a lot of the hardcore GoT fans were upset and hated the last episode where the passive fans or fans who have never read the books loved it. Seems like the hardcore Democratic politcos don't like Biden and are more into Buttigieg or Harris or Castro while most voters are probably more like I liked Obama and Biden was his vice president so I would vote for him?

[ISiddiqui]

Buttigieg, IMO, is going for a similar moderate Democratic voter as Biden is. Buttigieg is just aiming for the $100k+ set, while Biden is aiming for the <$50k set. At least that is what it seems like to me.

[thesloppy]

I also live on the west coast which probably adds a lot of invisible bias to what I see.

I wonder how much of Biden's draw is also simply related to age. Baby Boomers seem like they can still kinda choose to be the biggest drivers in terms of raw numbers, and Biden probably appeals to the older set for all of the reasons mentioned.

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Buttigieg, IMO, is going for a similar moderate Democratic voter as Biden is. Buttigieg is just aiming for the $100k+ set, while Biden is aiming for the <$50k set. At least that is what it seems like to me.

This. And mentioning Castro is a weird flex - he's not even able to make much of inroads in what would be a seemingly natural Latino constituency. Harris' support levels have been dropping btw. Bad CNN Town Hall where she kept deflecting questions.

[ISiddiqui]

O'Rouke is also falling a bit in these polls. Warren has gained a lot.

Though all of this is really early stuff.

[Atocep]

The polls are interesting but I don't think we'll know much of anything until after the first 2 debates in June and July at the earliest.

If I were to pick Biden or Sanders vs the field I'm still taking the field at this point.

[larrymcg421]

I think the demographic edge Biden has is the best part of those numbers. Gonna be hard for anyone to crack that. I could see, once the field narrows down, a replay of 2016, where no matter how much progress Bernie made amongst the electorate, he had no hope of winning because he couldn't penetrate Hillary's advantage with minority voters.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I think the demographic edge Biden has is the best part of those numbers. Gonna be hard for anyone to crack that. I could see, once the field narrows down, a replay of 2016, where no matter how much progress Bernie made amongst the electorate, he had no hope of winning because he couldn't penetrate Hillary's advantage with minority voters.

Everyone else is probably looking at the minority voter numbers and are scared shitless. Biden, of course, gets the Obama carryover. Harris and Booker have to be going - WTF, esp since they seem to be behind Warren in non-white voters? Of course the debates could even that up a bit.

But, looking forward, if Biden wins South Carolina, Harris and Booker basically have to seriously think about dropping out.

[JPhillips]

Based on a Dave Weigel tweet, I wonder how many Dems are already thinking that a woman or minority can't win and are looking for the most electable white male.

[PilotMan]

I was completely wrong about the D's in 2016. So anything I say will be completely wrong. Having said that if Biden is the D choice, I don't see success in the future. We need younger candidates who aren't Boomers.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I was completely wrong about the D's in 2016. So anything I say will be completely wrong. Having said that if Biden is the D choice, I don't see success in the future. We need younger candidates who aren't Boomers.

Yeah, throwing up old white dudes seems like a desperate bid to win. The wants of the people be damned.

Shoot, the GOP went off track and got Trump elected. Surely the left can come up with something better then Biden or Sanders.

[digamma]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/30/u...gtype=Homepage

[Thomkal]

Well that should make Barr's testifying before Congress tomorrow a little more interesting

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Well that should make Barr's testifying before Congress tomorrow a little more interesting

Lets not act like any of that will matter. Barr did what he was brought on to do. He got the narrative they wanted out before anyone else could come to a conclusion, thus protecting his boss. Nothing that happens from that point on matters, no one is changing their mind.

Trump has people convinced women are actually giving birth to healthy babies and then deciding if they should murder it with the doctor who delivered. Do you honestly think these people will be convinced he did collude/ obstruct after he claimed the report says otherwise?

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Lets not act like any of that will matter. Barr did what he was brought on to do. He got the narrative they wanted out before anyone else could come to a conclusion, thus protecting his boss. Nothing that happens from that point on matters, no one is changing their mind.

Trump has people convinced women are actually giving birth to healthy babies and then deciding if they should murder it with the doctor who delivered. Do you honestly think these people will be convinced he did collude/ obstruct after he claimed the report says otherwise?

I'm not concerned with the pro-Trump people here. The rest of us deserve to see the Mueller Report in full (minus redactions) and hear directly from the person whose name is on the report. Then we can make up on our minds on the report and just not swallow the kool-aid like Trump supporters have.

[Ben E Lou]

Someone please tell me that an aid has his phone, and that the President Of The United States has something more productive to do than spend the last 20+ minutes (and counting) retweeting 40+ (and counting) random people who claim they're firefighters saying they'll vote for him.

[Edward64]

I'm disappointed that Maduro isn't out yet and it doesn't seem as if the US is doing much to help out. I hope they finally get rid of him and the Venezuelans get a more stable government.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/201...p-news-videos/

Video shows military vehicle running over protesters

https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/30/polit...sia/index.html

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo claimed Tuesday that embattled Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro was preparing to leave the country for Cuba, but was talked out of it by Russia.

"We've watched throughout the day, it's been a long time since anyone's seen Maduro," Pompeo said in an interview with CNN's Wolf Blitzer on "The Situation Room."

"He had an airplane on the tarmac, he was ready to leave this morning as we understand it and the Russians indicated he should stay."

"He was headed for Havana," Pompeo said.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Someone please tell me that an aid has his phone, and that the President Of The United States has something more productive to do than spend the last 20+ minutes (and counting) retweeting 40+ (and counting) random people who claim they're firefighters saying they'll vote for him.

Nope. The Firefighters Union spoke highly about Biden, if not outright endorsed him. Therefore, Trump has to find MAGAs who claim to be firefighters who think Biden sucks. If he wasn't doing that, he'd be watching Fox and Friends so you know exactly what else he had to do.

Biden terrifies him that he'll snatch the Midwest and the Electoral College out from him.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by bronconick

Nope. The Firefighters Union spoke highly about Biden, if not outright endorsed him. Therefore, Trump has to find MAGAs who claim to be firefighters who think Biden sucks. If he wasn't doing that, he'd be watching Fox and Friends so you know exactly what else he had to do.

Biden terrifies him that he'll snatch the Midwest and the Electoral College out from him.

The character assassination that Trump is going to unleash on Biden is going to be something to behold.

[larrymcg421]

I'm not buying all of this "Dems need ____ to win" or "If Dems don't nominate ______, they'll lose". Trump is unpopular right now. Even worse, Trump is unpopular with a booming economy. He won an election by getting narrow victories in specific states. He is less popular in all of those states. Pretty much any of the Dems can win. They have the advantage. That doesn't mean they will win. But the better question is what does Trump need to do to win again.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Someone please tell me that an aid has his phone, and that the President Of The United States has something more productive to do than spend the last 20+ minutes (and counting) retweeting 40+ (and counting) random people who claim they're firefighters saying they'll vote for him.

Executive time

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I'm disappointed that Maduro isn't out yet and it doesn't seem as if the US is doing much to help out.

I wouldn't intervene. When you start fucking with other nations' sovereignty, it ends badly for everyone.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I'm not buying all of this "Dems need ____ to win" or "If Dems don't nominate ______, they'll lose". Trump is unpopular right now. Even worse, Trump is unpopular with a booming economy. He won an election by getting narrow victories in specific states. He is less popular in all of those states. Pretty much any of the Dems can win. They have the advantage. That doesn't mean they will win. But the better question is what does Trump need to do to win again.

I remain somewhat convinced that the turnout for Trump is going to be fairly static. He's got his base and the number of people that are just going to vote because Fox News does a great job of convincing people that if a democrat wins they're going to have to hand in their guns and be prepared for Russian style bread lines and full on communism. So if that turnout is fairly static, its really just about making sure the left turns the anger about the current situation into actual votes on a large scale.

[albionmoonlight]

To me, the big 2020 question is

Was H. Clinton a historically unlikable candidate because she was H. Clinton, or is the GOP/Fox machine well-oiled enough such that any Dem candidate will be as unlikable as Clinton by the time the election rolls around?

And I really have no idea.

[digamma]

The election is going to really square the popular vote versus electoral college issues. The Democratic nominee is going to run up massive, massive vote disparities in New York and California.

Turnout is going to matter in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, Georgia, Virginia and maybe a couple of others.

I don't think it's crazy to think we could have an electoral college battle down to the wire while the popular vote is 4-6 points different.

[Atocep]

Barr's testimony today makes us look even more like a banana republic.

Apparently it's perfectly fine for Trump to try to fire Mueller simply because he didn't like the investigation.

Barr admitted neither he nor Rosenstein actually looked at the underlying evidence of obstruction in the report before making a final determination.

Trump instructing white house staff to lie to Mueller's investigators is not obstruction.

Quite a bit more, but those are probably the key takeaways.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

To me, the big 2020 question is

Was H. Clinton a historically unlikable candidate because she was H. Clinton, or is the GOP/Fox machine well-oiled enough such that any Dem candidate will be as unlikable as Clinton by the time the election rolls around?

And I really have no idea.

To me, HRC was the most unlikable candidate ever. She lied constantly. SHe was overly arrogant. She was entitled.

I like some of the dem candidates this election. I dont watch Fox and I dont like the GOP much either.

I really disliked HRC

[JPhillips]

Barr is refusing to come to the House tomorrow because the plan is to have him questioned by lawyers and committee members. Nadler has threatened a subpoena, which could start a crisis.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by tarcone

She lied constantly. SHe was overly arrogant. She was entitled.

People who thought that then voted for Trump.

Just give us the real reasons.

[RainMaker]

I know a lot on the left don't like Biden but he's the biggest threat to Trump. He'll win Pennsylvania and has a pretty good chance of flipping Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Just feels like the electoral map is much harder with Biden as opposed to someone like Harris or Warren.

[molson]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I know a lot on the left don't like Biden but he's the biggest threat to Trump. He'll win Pennsylvania and has a pretty good chance of flipping Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Just feels like the electoral map is much harder with Biden as opposed to someone like Harris or Warren.

And Biden was polling evenly with Clinton and Sanders for a while even though he wasn't in the race.

He's not exactly likeable, but he's not unlikeable, and that's more important.

[Butter]

I would've been 100% Team Biden if he had run in 2016. I believe he would've won, probably easily.

Now I'm not so sure. I'm about 90% that he's got some problematic interactions with women in his past. Plus, he is almost 80. This is before the election.

Unfortunately, I feel like his time has passed.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Izulde

I wouldn't intervene. When you start fucking with other nations' sovereignty, it ends badly for everyone.

From one of my prior posts.

I do not believe the US should be the world's policeman but this is in our sphere of influence, they have a lot of oil, they have a legit humanitarian crisis, and its a good opportunity/relatively low risk to flex our muscle. If we are able to successfully lead the charge to replace Maduro with a friendly alternative, its the smart thing to do and will pay dividends for years in the future.

With Russia seemingly taking a more direct interest in preserving Maduro, the risk has gone up some but still a good bet to help.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Butter

I would've been 100% Team Biden if he had run in 2016. I believe he would've won, probably easily.

Now I'm not so sure. I'm about 90% that he's got some problematic interactions with women in his past. Plus, he is almost 80. This is before the election.

Unfortunately, I feel like his time has passed.

I do think his age will be a factor but he does seem "spry" enough right now. I would seriously consider him depending on his VP selection.

I lean away from free-money-dems and to a lesser extent, the couple of too-young-under-40. However, healthcare will be a primary platform for me.

The order of 3-4-5 may change but the top 5 so far are:

Economy, Countering China, Energy Independence, Healthcare & Immigration

What are yours?

[RainMaker]

How would you want us to intervene? Seems like we are putting pressure on them politically.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

How would you want us to intervene? Seems like we are putting pressure on them politically.

As far as I can tell, its just words of support for opposition and vague threats to Maduro.

I don't want boots on the ground but would be supportive of funneling money, providing some sort of guarantees to military defectors etc. All this may be happening behind the scenes. I do think we could up the rhetoric some and continuously.