2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I'd love to hear what makes Tulsi a Republican. Have you actually seen where she stands on the issues?

She's popular with some of the Fox News crowd because she's an anti-war isolationist that trashes the media. Her foreign policy is basically what most Democrats were before Obama took office.

Does anyone really know what she stands for? She ran as a Dem because it's the only way to get elected in Hawaii, but she has a history of touching on GOP talking points and hangs out on Fox News more than any other Dem in Congress.

For a guy that claims Biden is a Republican and Warren is a moderate I have a hard time understanding how you'd be bothered by someone claiming a person that continually hangs out in GOP circles and avoided putting a vote down on impeachment is actually a republican.

She gets praised by Bannon, Richard Spencer, Ron Paul and Franklin Graham. Sounds like a Democrat.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Does anyone really know what she stands for? She ran as a Dem because it's the only way to get elected in Hawaii, but she has a history of touching on GOP talking points and hangs out on Fox News more than any other Dem in Congress.

For a guy that claims Biden is a Republican and Warren is a moderate I have a hard time understanding how you'd be bothered by someone claiming a person that continually hangs out in GOP circles and avoided putting a vote down on impeachment is actually a republican.

She gets praised by Bannon, Richard Spencer, Ron Paul and Franklin Graham. Sounds like a Democrat.

You can find out what she stands for in 5 minutes with a Google search. She lists it all on her website. Here is her positions. If you read that and come away with Republican, I don't know what to say.

https://www.politico.com/2020-electi...tulsi-gabbard/

I'm not a big fan of her or anything, but she was one of the candidates furthest to the left in the entire race.

Like I said, she gets attention on the right because she's an isolationist. It wouldn't get noticed if the Democrats didn't flip to neoconservatives when it came to foreign policy. But since both parties have shifted so dramatically, it leads to weird situations like this. She also became persona non grata in the party for daring to criticize what Obama was doing in Iraq and Afghanistan.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

re: rural voters showing up in November

There were almost as many ballots cast in the virtually uncontested GOP primary in MS today as there were in the (hypothetically) competitive (D) primary.

Trump wins Republican presidential primary in Mississippi

Turnout is going to be high across the board I believe. I don't think people realize how fucking good the Republican ground game is and how well the microtarget voters (especially online). They've been spending a ton of money while the Democratic Primary has been going.

The issue is going to be where Biden increases turnout from 2016. Can he do it in swing states that matter or is it just going to be running up the score in blue states? I could foresee Biden winning by 5-6 million votes and losing the electoral college.

What areas can Biden improve on from Hillary. Youth vote? Fat chance. Suburbs? Probably his best bet. He's crushing in the primary in that area and likely needs to crush Trump there in the general.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

What areas can Biden improve on from Hillary. Youth vote? Fat chance. Suburbs? Probably his best bet. He's crushing in the primary in that area and likely needs to crush Trump there in the general.

I would agree with you, but with an additional caveat: he has to improve on HRC in the suburbs while not losing ground with women elsewhere

from Pew after 2016

Women supported Clinton over Trump by 54% to 42%. This is about the same as the Democratic advantage among women in 2012 (55% Obama vs. 44% Romney) and 2008 (56% Obama vs. 43% McCain).

That's three straight cycles where women slipped every so slightly with the (D). I think Biden has to at least get to 55% while improving in the 'burbs (the two easily could go hand in hand obviously, might even be HOW he improves in the 'burbs). If that number slips another point however improving the 'burbs might be impossible to attain / the reason behind another lost point.

That thinking seems to fit nicely with the increased emphasis I'm seeing from the other side with women voters (a key focal point of the ground game right now)

[RainMaker]

He's done well with women in the primaries. Especially suburban women. That's where he will improve on what Hillary did.

But I also think the youth vote could be an issue for him. Hillary was hurt by it and Biden is in a worse position than her. So if he loses more ground there, it's gotta be made up somewhere else.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

He's done well with women in the primaries. Especially suburban women. That's where he will improve on what Hillary did.

But I also think the youth vote could be an issue for him. Hillary was hurt by it and Biden is in a worse position than her. So if he loses more ground there, it's gotta be made up somewhere else.

Women is big. He is doing well in suburbs that flipped blue in 2018 largely by women. I think his AA turn-out numbers are going to be better (maybe not Obama's, but much closer to that than Hillary's). There is also that number of people that didn't vote last time because they either thought Hillary was going to win and didn't bother, or they didn't like Hillary but couldn't vote Trump. Better turn-out overall from 2016 will benefit Biden.
As for the youth vote, we will see. Betting on winning by the youth vote is almost always a foolish bet. They may not be excited by Biden, but they weren't excited enough by Bernie to help him win the nomination.

[Edward64]

I do want Sander's to drop out but in retrospect, I also want to watch this debate also. Good test (and practice) for Biden, he's gotten better with each debate but this time it'll be one-on-one and there won't be any hiding/avoiding by not participating.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/polit...ays/index.html

The Sanders campaign has rejected any suggestion that he might consider dropping out any time soon -- and certainly not before Sunday night's debate -- but those hopes could soon be replaced by a colder calculus.

"He'll debate," a Sanders aide said of his upcoming showdown with Biden in Arizona on Sunday night. The aide wouldn't go any further.

Re: rumors of his cognitive decline. There is no doubt there is a decline in remembering things as you age, it's normal. And no doubt Trump will attack this. Biden needs to get examined quietly, if the results turn out well, publicize it. If it truly does not turn out well (e.g. out of norm), kill the doctor (just joking, get another doctor to say what you want), don't publicize it, select a good younger VP.

As a layman, I personally don't see much cognitive decline. His earlier debate performances were not good but his more recent ones have been good. His recent speeches have also been good.

Bottom line - get checked quietly and unless Biden has a degenerative disease that will really show through Nov, keep on trucking.

Make sure you have good, rehearsed answers on Hunter, and also get Bloomberg ramped up to play dirty (start with wife & kids, keep it personal) while you be the nice and dignified Uncle Joe.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I do want Sander's to drop out but in retrospect, I also want to watch this debate also. Good test (and practice) for Biden, he's gotten better with each debate but this time it'll be one-on-one and there won't be any hiding/avoiding by not participating.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/polit...ays/index.html


Re: rumors of his cognitive decline. There is no doubt there is a decline in remembering things as you age, it's normal. And no doubt Trump will attack this. Biden needs to get examined quietly, if the results turn out well, publicize it. If it truly does not turn out well (e.g. out of norm), kill the doctor (just joking, get another doctor to say what you want), don't publicize it, select a good younger VP.

As a layman, I personally don't see much cognitive decline. His earlier debate performances were not good but his more recent ones have been good. His recent speeches have also been good.

Bottom line - get checked quietly and unless Biden has a degenerative disease that will really show through Nov, keep on trucking.

Make sure you have good, rehearsed answers on Hunter, and also get Bloomberg ramped up to play dirty (start with wife & kids, kevep it personal) while you be the nice and dignified Uncle Joe.

I agree with this. People talking about Joe’s memory are forgetting what Trump is like. I mean the guy can’t together a coherent throughout except a twitter insult. Biden has been a politician a longtime he can roll up his sleeves and play dirty. His tough guy persona is perfect to combat Trump.

[ISiddiqui]

What areas can Biden improve on from Hillary. Youth vote? Fat chance. Suburbs? Probably his best bet. He's crushing in the primary in that area and likely needs to crush Trump there in the general.

He's much better with white working class than Hillary was 4 years ago. Especially rural white working class. Look at how well he did in Michigan and Missouri compared to Clinton in the primaries 4 years ago. That may be key in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

[PilotMan]

Biden said dumbass shit 12 years ago. He's always been an idiot. Having said that, the current man in office, and the party really can't take any high roads against him.



You say his cognitive abilities are in decline? Hey; "we're ordering a lot of different elements of medical;" so yeah. That's your guy.



His got got a job because of connections to the WH? How about; "My Son-in-law is the perfect person to negotiate Middle East peace!"; Or "My daughter is going to come with me everywhere I gol to every major negotiation, and event with world leaders, even though there's no real reason for her to be there!" The hitlist just goes on and on. I saw a good one yesterday about Sanders; "He drafted Vietnam as a Conscientious Objector in Canada, and now he wants to lead the military?!?!?!?" So how about them heel spurs? trump has already been there and done that with pretty much everything and he got a pass for years. Why care now?

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

That may be key in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Those might be the only states in play this year, as crazy as that sounds. And if someone takes all of them, it's over.



I can't say how the midwest will turn out for trump. I assume it won't change, as they really haven't voted any other way except for the occasional Obama flip, but they've been red as long as I can remember. Both my Mom and Uncle were midwestern farmers from North Dakota and neither of them will vote for trump. Their votes won't matter in places where they live, I'm sure he'll carry KY and SD easily, but there are so many others out there who can't stand the man, but were less sure about that 4 years ago. I think that play could become significant when numbers start to come out.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

re: rural voters showing up in November

There were almost as many ballots cast in the virtually uncontested GOP primary in MS today as there were in the (hypothetically) competitive (D) primary.

Trump wins Republican presidential primary in Mississippi

I have been impressed with the GOP's ability to keep base voters engaged and not complacent. Normally, being in power tends to depress turnout, but we really haven't seen that from the GOP.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Normally, being in power tends to depress turnout, but we really haven't seen that from the GOP.

In Soviet Russia, KGB depress you if you don't turnout. {in best Yakov Smirnov voice}

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Those might be the only states in play this year, as crazy as that sounds. And if someone takes all of them, it's over.



I can't say how the midwest will turn out for trump. I assume it won't change, as they really haven't voted any other way except for the occasional Obama flip, but they've been red as long as I can remember. Both my Mom and Uncle were midwestern farmers from North Dakota and neither of them will vote for trump. Their votes won't matter in places where they live, I'm sure he'll carry KY and SD easily, but there are so many others out there who can't stand the man, but were less sure about that 4 years ago. I think that play could become significant when numbers start to come out.

I think there are a bunch of Stetson play this year NC, Virginia, Texas, Florida, Ohio, and the three you mention.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

re: rural voters showing up in November

There were almost as many ballots cast in the virtually uncontested GOP primary in MS today as there were in the (hypothetically) competitive (D) primary.

Trump wins Republican presidential primary in Mississippi

Not that MS is going to be competitive in any way, but while Donald almost equaled the Dems, the GOP turnout was much lower than in 2016 and the Dem turnout was a little higher.

I still think the fundamentals favor Trump, but there are warning signs all over for his campaign, and that's without factoring in the virus and resulting economic issues.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Galaril

I think there are a bunch of Stetson play this year NC, Virginia, Texas, Florida, Ohio, and the three you mention.

You really think Texas will come into play? I think OH is dead. They've slipped further red each year since the 90's. FL might play with Biden, maybe...I think VA will continue it's push to blue, and he should have a good chance there. I know nothing about NC and where it falls.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

You really think Texas will come into play? I think OH is dead. They've slipped further red each year since the 90's. FL might play with Biden, maybe...I think VA will continue it's push to blue, and he should have a good chance there. I know nothing about NC and where it falls.

NC is one of those states that is like Wisconsin--purple, but without a lot of moderate voters. Just a pretty close to 50-50 mix of dark red and dark blue.

Durham is one of the most liberal cities in the country, but it is a decent bike ride away from Pittsboro, where there have been consistent Confederate-rights marches for the last 6 months or so.

My sense is that NC could go blue, but if it does, it would be in an election where the Dems are winning big. It went for Obama in 2008 and Romney in 2012.

I think that a lot would have to break weird for it to be the tipping-point state.

[ISiddiqui]

NC though is different than places like Michigan and Pennsylvania, where it seems some folks are tired of Trump promising but not coming through. There is still a lot of Trump support.

Though, NC did elect a Democratic Governor and they are far far more likely to go blue with Biden than Sanders (same with Florida for that matter).

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

NC though is different than places like Michigan and Pennsylvania, where it seems some folks are tired of Trump promising but not coming through. There is still a lot of Trump support.

Though, NC did elect a Democratic Governor and they are far far more likely to go blue with Biden than Sanders (same with Florida for that matter).

Which is why I think that the Dems are making the right call with Biden. Picking Bernie and losing the election so that you end up losing states like NC by slightly less is a bad strategy.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

You really think Texas will come into play? I think OH is dead. They've slipped further red each year since the 90's. FL might play with Biden, maybe...I think VA will continue it's push to blue, and he should have a good chance there. I know nothing about NC and where it falls.

Yes on all those.

[Ben E Lou]

Bernie making an announcement at 1pm.

[BYU 14]

So with Biden looking like he now has a solid path, VP choices?

Obviously he needs to go young, but who have those I have heard mentioned walks that line of getting progressives/young people out to vote and not turning off the old guard?

Yang - Right now I am leaning towards him, he has good ideas and would bring some energy and can connect to young voters.

Buttigeig - I think this choice may hurt Biden in the southern states he has been strong in and with black voters.

Booker - I like Cory, but he just doesn't seem to click with the majority of voters, especially minorities which is concerning

Harris - Smart and a bulldog, but those traits also rub a lot of people the wrong way and I don't see her helping anywhere but in states that Biden is not already assured a win in.

Klobucher - Probably my second choice, it should cement Minnesota which looks like it may be tightly contested in the general election and she checks the youth box, woman box and has solid ideas as well.

Stacy Adams - She is a rising star and would be an asset in getting black voters out in the south. Biden has hinted at her as well.

Thoughts or others you think stand a chance of getting the nod?

[albionmoonlight]

Klob seems like the best fit, though I wonder if Biden will feel the need to go more liberal.

Stacey Abrams is on most people's short list.

I would be shocked if it is not a woman or person of color.

[Atocep]

I think it's almost a given that it's going to be Harris or Abrams.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Bernie making an announcement at 1pm.

Sources with knowledge of @BernieSanders’ plans tell @ABC that he is *not* expected to end his presidential campaign today.

— Adam Kelsey (@adamkelsey) March 11, 2020

[Radii]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

That would not be a good play. The ground game, especially in those rural areas, this time around is so far ahead of last cycle it's not even comparable.

I remember presidents back to Nixon pretty clearly and I don't know that I've seen anyone with a more fervent base in the rural areas I know so well.

At this risk of offering good advice to the enemy, I'd say another tactic would be advisable cause the one you mentioned absolutely will not fly.

Yep. And this is the main reason that I don't buy the fact that Bernie being the nominee would allow the right to use scare tactics to increase turnout on their side. The right is already so good at that, no matter who the nominee is they'll have something in place to inspire fear and to get the votes in. I have never been convinced that any dem nominee would change that at all.

Which dem nominee can get the highest democrat turnout is of course a different story and a really important one.

[Ben E Lou]

So sources are saying this Bernie presser is to announce that he's staying. Calling a presser just to announce that he isn't quitting seems to make him look like even more of a tool. But you do you, Bernie!

[albionmoonlight]

I imagine the play for Biden and the DNC is to keep talking nice about Bernie and his supporters and pretty much just ignore his attacks. Don't engage him.

He wants a fight--don't give it to him.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Galaril

Yes on all those.

Texas will just keep closing polling places in certain areas if it ever got close. Gutting the VRA likely gave them control of the state for another decade.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

He's much better with white working class than Hillary was 4 years ago. Especially rural white working class. Look at how well he did in Michigan and Missouri compared to Clinton in the primaries 4 years ago. That may be key in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

People in those states still care a lot about NAFTA. And the rural vote is just gone for the Democrats. It'll come down to the suburbs.

I do wonder if there is a chance Florida comes into play.

[Thomkal]

Biden's VP has to be a woman and younger if he really wants their vote in Nov. I likely would have voted for Harris if she had stayed in long enough for the SC primary. Abrams like Mayor Pete doesn't have the federal experience I think a potential President should have.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

People in those states still care a lot about NAFTA.

Not that much in these Democratic primaries apparently.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Not that much in these Democratic primaries apparently.

It's a primary where a tiny percent of the electorate votes.

He's down in those states in the polls and Trump has already started hammering him on NAFTA. Ask Hillary how that plays out in those states.

#Wisconsin:
Trump 45% (+2)
Biden 43%#Pennsylvania:
Trump 45% (+1)
Biden 44%#Michigan:
Trump 46% (+2)
Biden 44%@Be0ptimus/@FirehouseStrat 3/5-7

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) March 9, 2020

[molson]

We have data now to back up Biden's electability and comparisons to Clinton.

With Sanders, we have speculation that ignores the data, and emotional assurances that sure, his supporters have been massively wrong so far, but they'll be right next time!

He massively under-performed the polls on Super Tuesday. His base doesn't vote in strong enough numbers. AOC even had a subtle jab against the Sanders movement at the Michigan rally, about it being too closed off and cynical, and that they're limiting their own growth by being divisive. Sanders just isn't going to be the guy to lead this part of the party.

[RainMaker]

What does any of what we've been talking about have to do with Sanders? We're talking about where Biden is going to pick up votes that Hillary couldn't get.

[RainMaker]

Also none of this matters if 500k people die from coronavirus. In that case, my dog could probably win the Midwest over Trump.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It's a primary where a tiny percent of the electorate votes.

Who voted substantially for the guy for trade agreements over the guy against them.

Trump's numbers vis-a-vis Biden in those states could be for any number of reasons, not the least that Biden is in a contested primary at the moment so those numbers may be lower for those purposes. Not to mention USMCA is basically NAFTA 2.0 anyways.

[sabotai]

Calling it NFTA 2.0 is being far too kind. It's more like NAFTA 1.01a. It had fewer changes than a typical new release of Madden.

[RainMaker]

I know that, but do voters? USMCA polls much better than NAFTA. Trump is going to campaign on how he fixed Biden's shitty NAFTA deal. Here he is at the townhall the other day.

THE PRESIDENT: He looks like he’s going to be a candidate and I just say, “How did that happen?”
So — but, no, Joe Biden — in all fairness, Joe Biden made a deal: NAFTA. He approved it. He was pushing it. It’s the worst trade deal ever made. We’re terminating NAFTA. We have the USMCA. China — if you look at what happened between China and Mexico and Canada, what they were doing to this country, how they were taking advantage of us. They were — Canada was charging us 300 percent tariffs. Now, we have it really in good shape. (Applause.)

[ISiddiqui]

Yeah, I just don't think it really matters all that much electorally in those states. Democrats, who tended to be the lesser free trade voters in the upper Midwest voted for the NAFTA guy over the anti-NAFTA guy.

This almost seems like talking out of both sides of the mouth, to be honest. In 2016 people were saying upper Midwest states were close in the Democratic primary because Sanders was anti-NAFTA and now you are saying oh the Democratic primary is only a tiny percentage of the vote so pro-NAFTA Biden winning dominantly doesn't matter.

[larrymcg421]

Last night's results made it abundantly clear that Biden is much stronger in Michigan than Hillary was. She narrowly lost that state. Dems dominated it in 2018.

[larrymcg421]

Also, I think people are missing the boat a little bit discussing how Biden needs to surpass Hillary in the suburban vote. I think he just needs to maintain the gains she already made there. That's one area where she did better than Obama. The question is can Biden win back the Obama-Trump voters, especially in the midwestern states. All the data we've seen so far suggests he at the very least has a chance to do that.

[ISiddiqui]

Looks like the next debate will not be in Arizona, but in DC.

Joe Biden is sounding far more Presidential on Coronavirus than Trump did last night.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Looks like the next debate will not be in Arizona, but in DC.

Joe Biden is sounding far more Presidential on Coronavirus than Trump did last night.

Holy shit no kidding.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Looks like the next debate will not be in Arizona, but in DC.

Joe Biden is sounding far more Presidential on Coronavirus than Trump did last night.

Originally Posted by Galaril

Holy shit no kidding.

To be fair, Pee Wee Herman could sound more Presidential...

[ISiddiqui]

Well that much is true .

But this is a really good speech regardless of the comparison to Trump.

[tarcone]

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Galaril

Holy shit no kidding.

Didn't get to watch it but saw snippets and he looked good in those.

See any cognitive slip ups?

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Edward64

See any cognitive slip ups?

No. He paused over some words a few times, but was solid.

[spleen1015]

I'm not going to lie, he looks old AF.

But I don't care. We need to be saved.