COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I agree. The red states are going to get overrun. The population down there likely didn't take it serious enough until it was too late. Some probably still don't take it seriously. They are statistically poorer, fatter, and dumber. Bad combination for something like this.

Your arrogance is out of control.

Please mention one more time in this thread how your wife is Sr VP at Duracell.

[thesloppy]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...-in-the-union/

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Whatever dude. Not really worth the argument. If you want to think people in Miss, Alabama, KY, and Louisiana are geniuses so be it.

Fine with me because I would then have delved into how IQ, SAT, ACT, schooling are not fair to poor and colored, and brought up how your statement was discriminatory, bigoted, and (almost) non-ADL racist.

[Brian Swartz]

I'd like to point out that the entire range of the IQ list from top to bottom is less than 10 points. That's just over half of a standard deviation. It still makes a difference, but we aren't talking about the difference between brilliance and idiocy here. It's a fairly small overall gap.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...-in-the-union/

See above on non-ADL racist.

[Edward64]

Okay, can we take this to another thread. Although non-political, I think we can all agree this discussion does not belong here.

Sorry for my participation.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Your arrogance is out of control.

Please mention one more time in this thread how your wife is Sr VP at Duracell.

How's LR doing? I remember McCain Mall and Slick Willy's family pool hall from a while ago.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Arles

March 9th is when they expanded past Lombardy to cover Northern Italy. At that point, they had 463 deaths and over 9K recorded cases. On March 20, NY announced its shelter in place with 43 deaths and around 5,500 cases. On the day it began (3/22), they had 99 deaths. Heck, there were less than 450 recorded deaths in the entire US when most of the big cities started their shelter in place in the US (3/22). Factor in the reasons above about a more spread out country with less mass transit, fewer older and young living together, etc and there is reason to think the US won't be nearly as bad as Italy.

It's going to get worse in the US, but hospitals weren't being flooded in mass like in Spain/Italy when we started our measures. We also had the benefit of Italy as a warning (something Italy didn't have on their end).

1) I was referring to daily deaths, should have clarified. An yeah, it was a day later than i thought .
2) i believe Italys death numbers in the early phase a lot more than New York or the US in general (Italy did not test a ton, but consistently a while earlier). Due to only just having started seriously testing i expect there to have been a lot of "Pneumonia" deaths that were really Covid19, as some in here pointed out based on County data.

And again, i don't think it will get close to those numbers. But it is equally unlikely to stay close to the numbers right now. Would gladly be wrong.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by Edward64

How's LR doing? I remember McCain Mall and Slick Willy's family pool hall from a while ago.

I actually live in MS now just outside of Memphis. Haven’t updated my profile in awhile and still have my Xbox 360 gamer tag as my signature.

Things here are going ok. In Memphis, they are being proactive and opening up some temp hospitals. It’s about to get hot and humid which I hope slows down the spread. But I haven’t seen any hard evidence of that yet.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Your arrogance is out of control.

Please mention one more time in this thread how your wife is Sr VP at Duracell.

I truly apologize for being overly blunt. It completely did come off as arrogant.

As for my wife just trying to share info from a trusted and reliable source. I have also referenced several times a good friend who is a firefighter. I guess I just like to share peoples credentials prior to sharing their information.

Again, forgive me for my bluntness.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

I actually live in MS now just outside of Memphis. Haven’t updated my profile in awhile and still have my Xbox 360 gamer tag as my signature.

Things here are going ok. In Memphis, they are being proactive and opening up some temp hospitals. It’s about to get hot and humid which I hope slows down the spread. But I haven’t seen any hard evidence of that yet.

I've been to Memphis. Never went to Graceland (yuck) but liked downtown area (Rendezvous BBQ!), the duck hotel, and the Pyramid (Bass Pro Shop).

[RainMaker]

1169 deaths in the last 24 hours. Ooofff

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

1169 deaths in the last 24 hours. Ooofff

I honestly think we could hit 10,000 a day or more before too long.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by AlexB

It is tough. He clearly did the right thing. He also clearly broke the chain of command.

If the facts are as it is being reported then yes he broke the chain of command. The problem for me is the details that are being reported read like someone getting a speeding ticket for driving 57 in 55 mph zone

I am skeptical.

[PilotMan]

This is disturbing.


On March 8 air travel was down 15% year over year.


On March 31 air travel was down 93% year over year.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by panerd

IA coworker's mom was given a year max to live due to stage 4 cancer back around Christmas. She got COVID-19 a week or so ago and will likely pass any time now. So the COVID certainly made her death that much worse but is her death cancer or COVID? I don't have an answer, don't know the answer. Certainly don't think every death is this situation but it sure seems like a lot of the deaths in older people were very unhealthy people.

Top headline in St. Louis news. Not that her death isn't tragic to her family or that she never touched a lot of lives but sorry it's just so fucking disingenuous of the news. They wouldnt have even covered her death had she died of cancer back in March. Exploitation at its worst.

Eureka High School guidance counselor dies from COVID-19 | ksdk.com
Coronavirus St. Louis County: Eureka HS guidance counselor dies | ksdk.com

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

I was out shopping yesterday for my extended “family”. I went to Costco first and got there right before the senior citizens hour was up. There was that line outside. We waited probably ten minutes before they let us in. Within 100 feet of of the door, there were two employees standing in front of 8 pallets of toilet paper. Each package contained 30 rolls and you could get one. Just about everything I was looking for was available and most things had options to choose from. Only posted limit I saw was for poultry. Of course there was no hand sanitizer, Clorox wipes etc. To everyone’s credit, most people were not being ridiculous when it came to quantities of most items. Most people had what I would consider normal amount of those items that have been critically short. I went to Winn Dixie next and it was about the same.

From what I hear about the local Publix, they are struggling to keep up. It is not surprising given it is the only food store within ten minutes of about 8-10 subdivisions.

Side note about toilet paper (not related to your post above, just using it as a jumping off point): https://marker.medium.com/what-every...e-c812e1358fe0

While it's kindof fun (albeit mean spirited) to do the whole "point and laugh at TP hoarders" thing that's pretty popular right now, it's not necessarily what's going on. Because people are at home, they're using a lot more consumer toilet paper and not commercial toilet paper so the supply chains are all out of whack.

SI

[sterlingice]

(warning: totally off topic)

Originally Posted by Edward64

I've been to Memphis. Never went to Graceland (yuck) but liked downtown area (Rendezvous BBQ!), the duck hotel, and the Pyramid (Bass Pro Shop).

Memphis is a sneaky good tourist city. We went to Graceland - but it's more a museum to us than a pilgrimage for the older folks who lived it. Tons of other interesting music stuff and I'm not a big music person: Sun, Stax, Beale Street, Rock and Soul Museum (tho it covers a lot of what you get at Sun and Stax), and Gibson Guitar factory tour to name a few things we did. The National Civil Rights Museum is great.The ducks were fun, the Pink Palace was good local goofy fun, and the Mud Island River Park was good (since the weather was good).



Legit BBQ scene, too, and that's coming from a native Texan who went to school near Kansas City. I love anywhere that can do good dry ribs and Central was really legit.


SI

[Edward64]

Japan is probably hosed too.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/busin...ntl/index.html

While Tokyo's governor Yuriko Koike has urged the city's 13.5 million residents to telework where possible until April 12, and major Japanese companies such as Honda, Toyota and Nissan have asked staff to work from home, many employees are still commuting into the capital, where subway trains are busy during rush hour.

It's a similar story all across Japan, where about 80% of companies do not have the ability to let their employees telework, according to 2019 government data.
And with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe this week declining to declare a state of emergency, which would put pressure on businesses to enforce social distancing, companies can still legally operate from their offices.
:
:
Many employees don't have laptops they can take home, Kopp said, and companies do not have VPNs or remote access to their servers, meaning things can only be accessed in person at the office.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

That's the other thing. Two of our most populated states (Texas and Florida) only now just put a shelter-in-place. Most of the South has been loose. And some of those areas have really bad healthcare systems as it is (at least in comparison to Italy).

Hope I'm wrong but I have a bad feeling we are in store for some horrific times.

Most of the South?
VA, NC, SC, AL, TN, MS have been on lock down for two weeks.
GA and FL have been open...not most of the south.

[Edward64]

I know the stats say individual gun ownership is going down and the increased gun sales are because of people buying multiple weapons. I do wonder how many actual new gun owners will come out of this pandemic.

Don't need to buy anymore but still check guns and ammo sites here and there. There is no doubt there is a run on them.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/us/fb...rus/index.html

The new figures indicate 3.7 million gun purchase background checks were conducted in the month of March alone, marking the greatest number of background checks conducted in a single month since the FBI's National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) was launched in 1998.

By far, the state leading in federal firearm background checks numbers for the month of March was Illinois -- with over half a million background checks conducted -- followed by Texas, Kentucky, Florida, and California.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

Most of the South?
VA, NC, SC, AL, TN, MS have been on lock down for two weeks.
GA and FL have been open...not most of the south.

AL has not been on lock-down. Schools are closed but no stay-at-home or like order.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

Most of the South?
VA, NC, SC, AL, TN, MS have been on lock down for two weeks.
GA and FL have been open...not most of the south.

Bullshit. You either knew this list was not true and lied or you have no idea what the fuck you're talking about and listed a bunch of random states without spending 5 minutes to verify if you were right.

[larrymcg421]

AL has not gone on lockdown.
MS goes on lockdown 4/3.
TN order took effect 4/2.
NC went on lockdown on 3/30
SC is still not on lockdown.
VA went on lockdown 3/30

I'll help you with the math. 2 weeks ago would be 3/19.

[NobodyHere]

FWIW

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

(warning: totally off topic)






Memphis is a sneaky good tourist city. We went to Graceland - but it's more a museum to us than a pilgrimage for the older folks who lived it. Tons of other interesting music stuff and I'm not a big music person: Sun, Stax, Beale Street, Rock and Soul Museum (tho it covers a lot of what you get at Sun and Stax), and Gibson Guitar factory tour to name a few things we did. The National Civil Rights Museum is great.The ducks were fun, the Pink Palace was good local goofy fun, and the Mud Island River Park was good (since the weather was good).



Legit BBQ scene, too, and that's coming from a native Texan who went to school near Kansas City. I love anywhere that can do good dry ribs and Central was really legit.


SI

I love Memphis, but it’s my home so I am probably biased.

Central is legit but we have better options.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

This is disturbing.

On March 8 air travel was down 15% year over year.

On March 31 air travel was down 93% year over year.

Sorry to hear this. I know it's stressing you out. Travel & hospitality are probably the hardest hit right now.

What's the pilots' union telling you guys?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

1169 deaths in the last 24 hours. Ooofff

MSNBC has been running short bios on some of the people who died. One show had 3 of them at the last part of the hour.

I thought it was done well and it would help bring some closure for the families.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Sorry to hear this. I know it's stressing you out. Travel & hospitality are probably the hardest hit right now.

What's the pilots' union telling you guys?

A little early to call, but furloughs starting in October. The company only needs 5000 guys for the April schedule. We have close to 13000. Im about 9500. I'd be on the street if that reality happens.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

A little early to call, but furloughs starting in October. The company only needs 5000 guys for the April schedule. We have close to 13000. Im about 9500. I'd be on the street if that reality happens.

When you get furloughed, does that mean the airline will give you first dibs (in order of seniority) when they start to re-hire or no gaurantees?

[PilotMan]

They have to call everyone back and offer a class before they can hire 1 person off the street in that case. All seniority is maintained.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

1169 deaths in the last 24 hours. Ooofff

Worldometer says 969. Still a lot .

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

They have to call everyone back and offer a class before they can hire 1 person off the street in that case. All seniority is maintained.

That is something at least. Best wishes to you.

[Radii]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...istancing.html

Hopefully no paywall, there isn't for me.

The South needs to get its shit together. Though I guess that's a constant theme of the last 300 years really, so why would this be any different. I'm very pleasantly surprised by my area in Trumptown, Indiana.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Radii

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...istancing.html

Hopefully no paywall, there isn't for me.

The South needs to get its shit together. Though I guess that's a constant theme of the last 300 years really, so why would this be any different. I'm very pleasantly surprised by my area in Trumptown, Indiana.

Times has excluded Corona News from their paywall i think and they have a very informative newsletter on it (think theres a link below most articles)

And yes, that article and its graphics are pretty good to illustrate some of the effects

[whomario]

The Bergamo 'province' within Lomdardy registered 5400 deaths in March, of which 2060 were diagnosed and listed as Covid. Normally only around 900 die in March. That still leaves a gap of over 2400 after official Covid19 deaths are accounted for.

https://www.ecodibergamo.it/stories/...se_1347415_11/

[whomario]

If anybody is interested, the german Institute tasked with coordinating testing etc seems to have started to publish their daily report in english as well:

Menupage: RKI - Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 - Aktueller Situationsbericht des Robert Koch-Instituts zu COVID-19

Todays report: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/...ublicationFile

They basically have a standard of stuff that is always published but also choose different peripheral data each day to add, which is often extremely interesting.

F.e. today they show how the measurements also pretty much stopped the Influenza wave dead in it's track as a sideeffect and that a little less than 9 % of targeted tests for Covid 19 come back positive and almost no tests from the "sentinel network" (essentially a longstanding rotating spread of doctors offices that take swaps from patients with respiratory symptoms, even light ones, that get tested for every known virus causing them) show positive for SarsCov2.

[whomario]

A similar study as to mobility in March for Germany but concentrating more on frequented places (Retail, Parks, Public transit etc) rather than travelled distance:

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobi..._Report_en.pdf


Fascinating that even grocery stores were 50% less frequented. Parks only 50% as well, but less surprising since they use January/February as a baseline where naturally already very few people frequented parks (especially since the weather here sucked)

[Ben E Lou]

Guilford County, NC is #4 on the list that Radii posted, and it's where I live. Schools and non-essential businesses here have been closed for 2+ weeks, and based on everything I've seen and heard since then, things have been very good here. I have an alternate explanation, though, for 3 miles being the average here: the weather. It has been GORGEOUS (highs upper 60s/low 70s with low humidity,) and the walking/running/biking trails are full, but--at least when I've been there--properly socially distanced. I know I've driven farther than that (more like 7 miles one-way) probably 2/3 of the days since school closed on 3/14, simply to ride bikes with my daughter in one of the parks. I'm fairly certain I haven't come within even 12 feet of anyone other than her on any of those rides. (The roads within the park are two cars wide, but cars aren't allowed in the park now, so walkers and riders can have room.) The number of walkers/riders wearing masks of some sort has increased *dramatically* this week as well, fwiw, from maybe 2% last week, to more than 30% today.


It's also worth nothing that there have been ZERO kids playing on the playgrounds at the park we are frequenting. (All public playgrounds are officially closed, but there's no physical barrier preventing parents from taking their kids there.)



We've also driven over 50 miles to go hiking three times to a popular hiking spot for Guilford County folks before it had to close because it got too popular. (There are a BUNCH of trails there, but they are much more narrow--maybe just 3 feet wide.) We went early in the morning on what would turn out to be the last day it was open. It was like 55 degrees at 7:30am when we arrived, and was in the upper 60s when we left at around 10:30. It was quite empty when we were there, but as we were leaving, there was a LONG line of cars waiting to get in. We're the closest metro area to there, so it's pretty certain that a bunch of those cars were coming from Guilford.


I can't speak for other places, but everything I've seen indicates that Guilford County is taking it quite seriously, but that we are also very much enjoying the outdoors.


Gotta run. We're about to drive 2 1/2 hours for a hike and picnic on the Blue Ridge Parkway for my older daughter's birthday. (Seriously, with every other plan being cancelled, that's what she asked to do. She did the research herself to find something open and--hopefully--not heavily used. It wasn't easy. What she doesn't know is that we're having a social distance parade for her and her sister tomorrow on their actual birthday. OH NOEZ!!! MOR CARS DRIVING AROUND GUILFORD COUNTY!!!1")

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Arles

When people say we are going to be like Italy - is that in terms of cases? No one really knows there. I contend we have over 2 million cases in the US right now (maybe 1+ mil for Italy??).

In terms of deaths, that's just irresponsible to say that. We are much closer to Germany than Italy or Spain. It looks like Italy and Spain will be in the 1.0-1.5% rate once the real numbers come out. I'd be shocked if the US was over 0.7% (prob closer to 0.5%). There's just no reason to expect the rate to massively increase after the measures that have been put in place in most areas. But, time will tell. I still content Italy and Spain got a much nastier strain of the virus than the one that has made it to most of the US.

The (simple) model I've been using would have had us around 4M today. However, it also assumed no social distancing or other mitigations. Clearly, we've made some societal changes so we're to the point where I'm not comfortable with how accurate my numbers are anymore.

Fortunately, someone is doing that job for me:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-36b886af37e9

Number of cases by state (graph)
https://miro.medium.com/max/2000/0*19GxUL6emgR1EqUx

According to this, more than a million people are already infected in the US, and most states would have thousands of cases. Because I used two doublings instead of three, this is likely still an underestimate.

I think his economic conclusions are flawed, but that's because he's treating this like recent pandemics, which were not nearly this large in scale, and didn't build in that we were due for a recession and the assorted bubbles that get generated from 10 years of expansion.


SI

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

It's also worth nothing that there have been ZERO kids playing on the playgrounds at the park we are frequenting. (All public playgrounds are officially closed, but there's no physical barrier preventing parents from taking their kids there.)

Subdivision FB page was complaining about how neighborhood kids were congregating playing basketball. My daughter is staying inside and taking it seriously, I wish other kids would too.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Subdivision FB page was complaining about how neighborhood kids were congregating playing basketball. My daughter is staying inside and taking it seriously, I wish other kids would too.

I assume there are teenager issues everywhere. I mean, the ones here are posting pics of themselves driving up to parking lots and properly socially distancing, sitting on the hoods of their cars, but who knows what’s happening off camera? There’s zero chance that dating couples in high school/college aren’t hooking up everywhere.

[sterlingice]

Our neighborhood gaggle of 7-12 year old kids are all still hanging out together

SI

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

I assume there are teenager issues everywhere. I mean, the ones here are posting pics of themselves driving up to parking lots and properly socially distancing, sitting on the hoods of their cars, but who knows what’s happening off camera? There’s zero chance that dating couples in high school/college aren’t hooking up everywhere.

This has been a concern of my wife and I. My son does click list at Kroger and has picked up hours during this. He has been moodier than normal so I figure that he hasn't been, but the thought has crossed our minds.

[Lathum]

My first grader had a zoom girl scout meeting yesterday and her troop leader went through each kid and asked them what they are doing with their days. One of the girls said playing with all the kids in the neighborhood and you could immediately feel the blackballing and judging beginning.

[Edward64]

The below is a long article. The gist is there seems to be legit concerns about the modelling/models used. However you have to start somewhere.

If it comes a lot lower or higher, I won't blame them. However they should be updating and presenting their best guess periodically (which I'm sure they'll do in the daily briefings) and the models will be continually refined.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...aths-estimate/

At a news briefing Sunday, Birx explained the process this way: Her task force initially reviewed the work of 12 models. “Then we went back to the drawing board over the last week or two, and worked from the ground up, utilizing actual reporting of cases,” Birx said. “It’s the way we built the HIV model, the TB model, the malaria model. And when we finished, the other group that was working in parallel — which we didn’t know about,” referring to the IHME group.

The IHME model initially estimated deaths through this summer would total 38,000 to 162,000 — a lower projection than many others and beneath the White House’s own estimate. But because of its lower figure and Birx’s comments, experts believe it to be a main source for the White House’s best-case scenario of 100,000 to 240,000 deaths.

Meanwhile, the White House appeared to rely on Imperial College for its worst-case scenario. That study estimated as many as 2.2 million U.S. deaths if no action was taken, 1.1 million deaths if moderate mitigation strategies were adopted, and an unspecified number if drastic measures were taken.

[whomario]

UK with 684 new deaths in hospitals only ... 4-7 days ago they were still hovering around 200

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by whomario

UK with 684 new deaths in hospitals only ... 4-7 days ago they were still hovering around 200

It is ramping up significantly

Ministers are talking about maybe reaching the peak in "a few weeks" - it does look like we might be getting towards higher daily numbers than anywhere else if that is the case

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by AlexB

It is ramping up significantly

Ministers are talking about maybe reaching the peak in "a few weeks" - it does look like we might be getting towards higher daily numbers than anywhere else if that is the case

What's the take on the failed (I assume) herd mentality approach? As in it was stupid to begin with or Boris tried to do the right thing etc.

[whomario]

Trying an approach based on a fringe theory not at all taking into account stuff like hospital capacity ?
Herd Immunity is not the issue, it is what every country ultimately must achieve (naturally and via vaccination) but it is utterly insane to say "well, better get those 60-70% infected out of the way fast".

That extra week of delay will cost the UKs elderly population tremendously and will require the restrictions to stay in place a lot longer and more strictly than it might have beem achieved otherwise. Because you need to be at a low level first before you can think about opening up and using intense testing and individual quarantine instead.