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Old 02-12-2013, 12:18 PM   #201
path12
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One more thing. I was wondering about DT a lot yesterday and mentioned that's how I would have gone if I'd switched at deadline, but reading it again afterwards he came off way better to me.
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Old 02-12-2013, 12:20 PM   #202
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Originally Posted by EagleFan View Post
I see a saldana tie in yesterday what could be worth exploring:

If saldana is a wolf...
- font looks good
- CR looks good
- mau and DT look not so good (obviously just one of them would be in question here)

If saldana is good...
- font and CR look not so good with their vote (not wolfish but not as good of votes as they would be if saldana was a wolf)
- a known villager would have been the first to lead the charge off saldana, that actually makes font look a little better as I can't see a night kill of JAG if font was a wolf in this case (saldana is still in question and it would appear that JAG and font tried to save him, they would have already eliminated one of the suspects leaving us one left to look at)

I really didn't like the non-vote from saldana yesterday. Best way for a wolf to hide in a small game is to "check in" a day late.

Normally that would automatically get a vote from me. But I'm off on this other tangent......
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Old 02-12-2013, 12:22 PM   #203
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Originally Posted by mauchow View Post
If you think my vote sucks then you must think paths sucks too.

I think path's vote sucked too.
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Old 02-12-2013, 12:26 PM   #204
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Originally Posted by path12 View Post
My reason for going back to Autumn rather than fontisian is more along the lines of:
1) Was fontisian trying to save Autumn with her vote/"switch"?
2) Does her sequence of vote/switch vote/try to switch but mess it up seem more wolflike or cultist-like? Leaning the latter right now. She doesn't strike me as a novice.

It looks like I'm pushing way harder here than I really feel, but there hasn't been a ton of conversation, so I'm just throwing darts blindfolded and hoping to hit something.

Let's explore a bit.

font's unvote was either:

A) mistake
B) wolfish ploy to act like an unvote that wouldn't count. Here is the problem with this assumption. For one it would be a really bad move to bring that much suspicion on yourself if there was only two wolves in the game. Why risk exposing both of you when a vote switch to lynch the other wolf would at least secure potential trust? For another, what if Z said, okay the vote counts. Also, it was not known what would happen with a tie. Leaving too much up to chance and exposing oneself way too much.
C) cultist move. The cultist doesn't know who the wolves are, that would mean absolutely nothing about Autumn.


I have to say Ocam's Razor on this one...
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Old 02-12-2013, 01:27 PM   #205
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I can see myself switching to font also as that makes sense what ef said.

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Old 02-12-2013, 01:36 PM   #206
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I can see myself switching to font also as that makes sense what ef said.


Actually, I think EF is saying it was a mistake, unless I am misreading him. I think he is saying we shouldn't read too much into font's unvote.
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Old 02-12-2013, 01:53 PM   #207
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2 Autumn - mauchow(184), path12(188)
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Old 02-12-2013, 01:53 PM   #208
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LEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRROOOOOOOOOOOOYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!

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Old 02-12-2013, 01:53 PM   #209
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Afternoon, all.
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Old 02-12-2013, 01:54 PM   #210
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S'pose I'll reread Day 1 now.
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Old 02-12-2013, 01:57 PM   #211
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Okay. My original point stands one way or another. We need to decipher whether or not it was a collassal mistake or not.
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Old 02-12-2013, 02:22 PM   #212
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Originally Posted by EagleFan View Post
Let's explore a bit.

font's unvote was either:

A) mistake
B) wolfish ploy to act like an unvote that wouldn't count. Here is the problem with this assumption. For one it would be a really bad move to bring that much suspicion on yourself if there was only two wolves in the game. Why risk exposing both of you when a vote switch to lynch the other wolf would at least secure potential trust? For another, what if Z said, okay the vote counts. Also, it was not known what would happen with a tie. Leaving too much up to chance and exposing oneself way too much.
C) cultist move. The cultist doesn't know who the wolves are, that would mean absolutely nothing about Autumn.


I have to say Ocam's Razor on this one...

This is my thinking. Vote me if you want, for happening to be on the firing line. But thinking Font is a wolf saving a wolf strains credulity. It's MUCH MUCH more likely, if I'm a wolf, that the other wolf is on DT and doesn't do anything hoping for a lucky result. A wolf on a wolf me would switch with a perfect excuse. A wolf with a vote somewhere else either votes DT and saves me, or votes me and rides that trust to endgame. I see no possibility that a wolf on DT fake-unvotes to lynch me.
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Old 02-12-2013, 02:23 PM   #213
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But just as likely (and more to my mind obviously) is that DT could be a wolf, and a wolf is stuck on me, not moving and hoping for a tie.
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Old 02-12-2013, 02:24 PM   #214
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I will return to DT. Because of the tie I do agree that we can learn something by going back to him and me. Also, he was almost lynched and had no reveal, so I feel better about voting him and not worrying he has a role.

vote daddytorgo
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Old 02-12-2013, 02:26 PM   #215
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unvote dt
vote autumn
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Old 02-12-2013, 02:30 PM   #216
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Checking in real briefly between my 3PM and 4PM mtg at the hotel. Will have to come back after the meeting and see what's going on...no time really now.
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Old 02-12-2013, 02:31 PM   #217
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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
I will return to DT. Because of the tie I do agree that we can learn something by going back to him and me. Also, he was almost lynched and had no reveal, so I feel better about voting him and not worrying he has a role.

vote daddytorgo

Don't vote for me. From reading this it looks like it's back to you and me, and I'm not voting for myself.

VOTE AUTUMN
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Old 02-12-2013, 02:35 PM   #218
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Ive seen enough from Autumn to warrant checking into him.
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Old 02-12-2013, 02:35 PM   #219
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We do have a seer, and a night deadline, so that makes me less keen to vote for DT and me, as we might have been scanned. But generally I don't think we can gather much from yesterday without knowing our allegiances. I'm interested why people left it a tie, which is rather rare.
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Old 02-12-2013, 02:35 PM   #220
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Not sure I want a run away though, so I will flip this way for now

unvote autumn
vote font
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Old 02-12-2013, 02:36 PM   #221
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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
We do have a seer, and a night deadline, so that makes me less keen to vote for DT and me, as we might have been scanned. But generally I don't think we can gather much from yesterday without knowing our allegiances. I'm interested why people left it a tie, which is rather rare.

I think it was a case of no one being here to break the tie. It didnt look like anyone made a conscious decision not to break the tie.
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Old 02-12-2013, 02:46 PM   #222
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Originally Posted by Zinto View Post
Official Vote Count:
1-Saldana: Chief Rum(53)
4-Autumn: Brit(43), Mauchow(60), DaddyTorgo(66), RA(77)
4-DaddyTorgo: Autumn(48), Jag(67), Danny(106), Font(110)
1-Mauchow: Path(50)
1-Jag: EF(51)

Yet To Vote:Sal

Moving this up for thinking out loud.

If one of me or DT is a wolf, and Path, EF or Chief were around and wolves, I would think they would have saved us, with a perfect excuse.

If I am a wolf, I expect Brit, Mau or RA to move if they are also a wolf, as they have a pretty good excuse. It's possible they'd shoot for the tie and hope to get lucky and not draw attention to themselves. If JAG, Danny or Font was my fellow wolf, they would either hold still and hope for luck, or make the switch and take the credit. Danny or JAG I could see switching, but wouldn't expect that of a new wolf. Though I suppose if I was a wolf I would have possibly suggested it to Font.

If DT is a wolf, same in reverse, I doubt that JAG, Danny or Font are the fellow wolf, as they would have had clearance to move (unless they weren't around). So likely targets are Brit, Mauchow and RA.

But again, until we know at least one of us, that doesn't narrow it down much.
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Old 02-12-2013, 02:46 PM   #223
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I think it was a case of no one being here to break the tie. It didnt look like anyone made a conscious decision not to break the tie.

I remember someone saying they chose not to break the tie. In fact there were several eople in thread talking at the time, so I'm not sure that's the case.
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Old 02-12-2013, 02:47 PM   #224
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Looking back Path, RA, Font and JAG were all in thread in the last few minutes.
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Old 02-12-2013, 02:48 PM   #225
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If Path is a wolf then it was likely villager-villager, as I can't see why he wouldn't save his fellow wolf. Font we've discussed. RA and JAG were on opposite sides, so if one of us turns out to be a wolf we've got a possible suspect there.
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Old 02-12-2013, 02:56 PM   #226
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Many good points you raise, Autumn.
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Old 02-12-2013, 02:56 PM   #227
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3 Autumn - mauchow(184), path12(188), DaddyTorgo(217)
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Old 02-12-2013, 02:56 PM   #228
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Back to being productive at work. Sigh...
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Old 02-12-2013, 02:58 PM   #229
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I know that dude ...

'sup hoops!
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Old 02-12-2013, 03:04 PM   #230
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I think it was a case of no one being here to break the tie. It didnt look like anyone made a conscious decision not to break the tie.

I did in the end. Had a switch ready to post but just kept waiting to see if anyone would jump -- plus I didn't really want to be the deciding last second switch to lynch a villager on day 1 in my first game in two years, y'know?

I deserve scrutiny nonetheless though no matter which way I went. Would have been easier to just not show up 10 minutes before deadline. But I'm having fun being back even if just for a game so I hurried to get online....
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Old 02-12-2013, 04:29 PM   #231
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While EF's logic on fontisian makes some sense, she still made a really odd decision/mistake there. By itself it's not enough, but it's either put up a second candidate or watch Autumn run away with it. I always think we get more information when we have close votes.

VOTE FONTISIAN
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Old 02-12-2013, 04:35 PM   #232
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What can I say? I wasn't paying close enough attention to the game and made a really stupid mistake. It will not happen again.

I think it would be best to lynch Autumn or DaddyTogo today, since so many people had opinions and voted or conspicuously decided not to vote on them. I'm going to vote for DaddyTogo for now, because I really don't like the way he overreacted to people voting for him. Is that how he normally behaves?

Vote DaddyTogo

If no momentum builds on him, I'll switch to Autumn.
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Old 02-12-2013, 04:51 PM   #233
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Actually, looking back, Daddy doesn't look that bad and an Autumn lynch would give more info.
Unvote DaddyTogo
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Old 02-12-2013, 05:01 PM   #234
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Chief Rum was in the thread at the end, which is why I asked him or path or unvote. Their votes were meaningless.

VOTE CHIEF RUM
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Old 02-12-2013, 05:04 PM   #235
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Moving this up for thinking out loud.

If one of me or DT is a wolf, and Path, EF or Chief were around and wolves, I would think they would have saved us, with a perfect excuse.

If I am a wolf, I expect Brit, Mau or RA to move if they are also a wolf, as they have a pretty good excuse. It's possible they'd shoot for the tie and hope to get lucky and not draw attention to themselves. If JAG, Danny or Font was my fellow wolf, they would either hold still and hope for luck, or make the switch and take the credit. Danny or JAG I could see switching, but wouldn't expect that of a new wolf. Though I suppose if I was a wolf I would have possibly suggested it to Font.

If DT is a wolf, same in reverse, I doubt that JAG, Danny or Font are the fellow wolf, as they would have had clearance to move (unless they weren't around). So likely targets are Brit, Mauchow and RA.

But again, until we know at least one of us, that doesn't narrow it down much.

Yeah, I agree that JAG is probably not a wolf.

I know what you're really trying to say.
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Old 02-12-2013, 05:06 PM   #236
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Originally Posted by saldana View Post
not knowing what the mechanic would be for a tie, i think trying to be helpful and failing due to technical difficulties looks better than sitting and doing nothing
I'm going to go against what I just said and
Vote Saldana
Because this was seriously his only post so far.
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Old 02-12-2013, 05:09 PM   #237
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Okay...have some time to catch up before I go out and get dinner...going to be asleep before it gets too late though...4:15 wakeup call tomorrow
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Old 02-12-2013, 05:18 PM   #238
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I kind of like autumn more based on his analysis he's done today. In the spirit of encouraging that, before I head out to grab dinner, I'm going to

UNVOTE AUTUMN

I'll be back before deadline...probably in like an hour...certainly less than 2 I have to believe.
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Old 02-12-2013, 05:33 PM   #239
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Chief Rum was in the thread at the end, which is why I asked him or path or unvote. Their votes were meaningless.

VOTE CHIEF RUM

I checked the forum on my phone before walking into work at 5:30, but I was not on at deadline.
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Old 02-12-2013, 05:35 PM   #240
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We learn much more from a font lynch or sal lynch than from an autumn lynch.

Hell, i think we could learn more from a mau lynch at this point. I think it will show us a lot to be honest. On my phone at the moment but i will try to get to my laptop soon enough so i can elaborate on that statement.

Hopefully the time away cleared my head well as i feel like i have a pretty good grasp on two potential directions to head and either a mau or sal lynch could point to wolf number 2, or narrow it down enough that end game would be close.
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Old 02-12-2013, 05:35 PM   #241
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So am I reading the vote count right?

Autumn 2 -- mauchow, path
fontisian 2 -- Danny, CR
mauchow 1 -- EF
DT 1 -- Autumn
CR 1 -- RA
sal 1 -- fontisian

I'm here for about 30 minutes and then out for sure until later tonight.
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Old 02-12-2013, 05:37 PM   #242
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Right now I could see voting for Autumn, fontisian or saldana but am interested to hear EF's ideas on mauchow.
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Old 02-12-2013, 05:47 PM   #243
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unvote autumn

I feel a lot better not going autumn now. Perhaps we did have villager/villager last night. Its so tough to say on the new first day.
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Old 02-12-2013, 06:01 PM   #244
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Official Vote Count
1 Autumn-path(188)
1 Mau-EF(193)
1 DaddyTorgo- Autumn(214)
2 Font-Danny(220), Chief(231)
1 Chief- Raiders(235)
1 Sal- Font(236)
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Old 02-12-2013, 06:02 PM   #245
path12
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OK, have to run. Looks like I'm alone on Autumn now so lets make a move and see what happens.

UNVOTE AUTUMN
VOTE FONTISIAN


Let's get a wolf today. See y'all later tonight.
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Old 02-12-2013, 06:02 PM   #246
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Sorry Zinto. Your list was instantly out of date.
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Old 02-12-2013, 06:09 PM   #247
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Headed out again to the other job and won't be available at deadline. If I make good time, I might peek in again before walking into the job, but I start a half hour earlier today (5).
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Old 02-12-2013, 06:22 PM   #248
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I'm around now. At least until I crash.
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Old 02-12-2013, 06:48 PM   #249
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Wow, quite a spread this late. I can't see voting Fontisian. I think it's clear she only is getting pressure because she made a mistake in her post. If she had unvoted Daddy to break the tie and lynched a villager Autumn, I wouldn't be voting her either (well, you get what I mean). I think we too often take the easy route of focusing on whoever did something, anything!, we can latch onto. But it's usually not a wolf.

I'm interested in hearing EF's thoughts because I have no idea what he's talking about.
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Old 02-12-2013, 06:51 PM   #250
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Outside of just voting DT for being in the vote yesterday, my thoughts are more on Path, for hesitating to make a deciding vote and break the tie--something a villager might do, but a wolf would be wary of doing and drawing attention as well. The fact that he then started the day by trying to paint Font bad for doing basically the opposite is not in his favor, I don't think.

I can't see a strong reason to vote Chief, Mau or Saldana. At least I haven't heard one yet.
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