COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

I almost think that Biden should have thanked the Coronavirus for the endorsement. I think the Trump administration incompetence and dismissal of the threat played a part in his defeat.

While driving with the missus yesterday, she indicated the biggest ding to Trump for her was his coronavirus response.

[Edward64]

Not that I'm complaining but the Pfizer announcement, for some, could be suspiciously close to after the elections.

I really hope its "real" and vaccines in 1Q.

[Edward64]

Question for the group here.

My wife is thinking about driving from GA to TX to see parents for Christmas. School is out Fri 12/18 so she we discussed maybe she get a test on Tue 12/22. If she caught anything, this will give it 4 days or so to "incubate". She'll then leave on Wed 12/23 for TX, spend the night somewhere and get there Thu 12/24.

1) Is the 4 days sufficient? Or are tests good enough where she could take it earlier?

2) How accurate are CVS-and-like tests? Does she need to take 2 tests to really be sure?

[Thomkal]

I can't really answer your questions, maybe Joe Biden can when his virus task force meets, but there's nothing wrong with getting multiple tests if anyone is travelling for the holidays in my opinion.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Question for the group here.

My wife is thinking about driving from GA to TX to see parents for Christmas. School is out Fri 12/18 so she we discussed maybe she get a test on Tue 12/22. If she caught anything, this will give it 4 days or so to "incubate". She'll then leave on Wed 12/23 for TX, spend the night somewhere and get there Thu 12/24.

1) Is the 4 days sufficient? Or are tests good enough where she could take it earlier?

2) How accurate are CVS-and-like tests? Does she need to take 2 tests to really be sure?

My thoughts would be why bother with the test when she is then going to drive cross country, stop at gas stations, hotel, restaurants, etc...all places she could get infected.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Question for the group here.

My wife is thinking about driving from GA to TX to see parents for Christmas. School is out Fri 12/18 so she we discussed maybe she get a test on Tue 12/22. If she caught anything, this will give it 4 days or so to "incubate". She'll then leave on Wed 12/23 for TX, spend the night somewhere and get there Thu 12/24.

1) Is the 4 days sufficient? Or are tests good enough where she could take it earlier?

2) How accurate are CVS-and-like tests? Does she need to take 2 tests to really be sure?

Best to ask a professional at whatever place she plans to get the test. They'll ideally have specifics on what the tests they use can and can't do. But with that caveat out of the way , some general boilerplate stuff gleaned over time:

4-5 days is pretty much thought to be the average (median) incubation time, usually a person is infectious a day or 2 earlier (so 2-4 days after exposure).* So there's a decent chance but far from a guarantee that it would detect an infection that happened Friday. I think that combined with the fact that truly asymptomatic cases are rarer than sometimes claimed that would put the 6th day and still not feeling anything decently past the median in terms of statistical likelihood.

* "CVS" i have no idea what that refers to, but in general any sort of antigen "Instant/rapid" test i am aware of has a decent sized blind spot prior to being infectious. Meaning it's biggest asset is reliably detecting people that are actually infectious in that moment, biggest weakness is that it's less sensitive than a PCR when already infected but not yet infectious themselves.
So the best time to take that would definitely be as late as possible. In any case she should do it at a medical facility and go for the proper swab through the nose when given the option (test can't detect what the human does not properly collect).

2 tests by itself won't make a huge difference unless one is botched. Both being done equally well, the latter is always the more reliable one.

Make what you will of that and do definitely ask a professional if available.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by whomario

Best to ask a professional at whatever place she plans to get the test. They'll ideally have specifics on what the tests they use can and can't do. But with that caveat out of the way , some general boilerplate stuff gleaned over time:

4-5 days is pretty much thought to be the average (median) incubation time, usually a person is infectious a day or 2 earlier (so 2-4 days after exposure).* So there's a decent chance but far from a guarantee that it would detect an infection that happened Friday. I think that combined with the fact that truly asymptomatic cases are rarer than sometimes claimed that would put the 6th day and still not feeling anything decently past the median in terms of statistical likelihood.

* "CVS" i have no idea what that refers to, but in general any sort of antigen "Instant/rapid" test i am aware of has a decent sized blind spot prior to being infectious. Meaning it's biggest asset is reliably detecting people that are actually infectious in that moment, biggest weakness is that it's less sensitive than a PCR when already infected but not yet infectious themselves.
So the best time to take that would definitely be as late as possible. In any case she should do it at a medical facility and go for the proper swab through the nose when given the option (test can't detect what the human does not properly collect).

2 tests by itself won't make a huge difference unless one is botched. Both being done equally well, the latter is always the more reliable one.

Make what you will of that and do definitely ask a professional if available.

Thanks for the responses.

Re: the drive itself, we've been pretty good about wiping our hands, steering wheels, door handles etc. after a gas fill-up, Kroger trips etc. On overnight stay at a hotel, we did talk about maybe son & daughter going with her so they can drive the 10-12 hours straight (I stay home to watch the dog).

Whomario, thanks for your insight to the incubation period & testing. CVS is a chain of drug stores like Walgreens/Boots. They offer the test but unsure what type, I'll research more.

[Edward64]

Obviously 1.3B doesn't isn't good enough for the world (and need 2 doses each). Have to believe they will create other "manufacturing lines" to scale like in China, India etc.

Assume Pfizer will get paid by country governments. How in the world do you set & negotiate pricing that is fair, affordable but still gives Pfizer some level of profit?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/09/healt...ive/index.html

Bourla told CNN that Pfizer expects to have 50 million vaccine doses globally this year, and 1.3 billion next year.

"Who will get this vaccine? We have two separate manufacturing lines. One is in the US," Bourla said. "Those we prefer using mainly for Americans."

Bourla added that a second line in Europe will be used to produce vaccines for the rest of the world. "We have already signed contracts with multiple governments in the world and they have placed orders," Bourla said.
The vaccine will be free to all American citizens, Bourla said.

[JPhillips]

The cold storage is going to make it a difficult choice for less advanced countries.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by whomario

* "CVS" i have no idea what that refers to, but in general any sort of antigen "Instant/rapid" test i am aware of has a decent sized blind spot prior to being infectious. Meaning it's biggest asset is reliably detecting people that are actually infectious in that moment, biggest weakness is that it's less sensitive than a PCR when already infected but not yet infectious themselves.
So the best time to take that would definitely be as late as possible. In any case she should do it at a medical facility and go for the proper swab through the nose when given the option (test can't detect what the human does not properly collect).

2 tests by itself won't make a huge difference unless one is botched. Both being done equally well, the latter is always the more reliable one.

Make what you will of that and do definitely ask a professional if available.

CVS used PCR

What type of test is performed?

MinuteClinic performs a PCR test, which tests for active infections only. We do not administer antibody tests, which indicate whether the patient has been infected in the past.

2-3 days for test results. So wife is now thinking week after Christmas so it's not as tight.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Obviously 1.3B doesn't isn't good enough for the world (and need 2 doses each). Have to believe they will create other "manufacturing lines" to scale like in China, India etc.

Assume Pfizer will get paid by country governments. How in the world do you set & negotiate pricing that is fair, affordable but still gives Pfizer some level of profit?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/09/healt...ive/index.html

AstraZeneca/Oxford is planning on producing 2 billion doses of their vaccine next year, Moderna should also produce at least a billion of theirs too. There's dozens of other vaccines candidates, at least some of whom will get approved next year.

Nowhere close to everyone is going to get it, I'd be surprised if half did in the U.S., but at some point the herd immunity defense between existing antibodies and vaccinated people is going to be high enough for infection to be a lot more rare and manageable. Everybody's going to have a different personal risk tolerance for when they stop wearing masks, start traveling, going to events, etc., and I'm sure we'll fight with each other over that. But I wonder how the world would respond to a rare-ish but not extinguished COVID that we vaccinate for every year. Do we still socially distance? Will we need proof of vaccination to attend sporting events, board planes etc? Can't wait for that shit show! (It would be better than the current shit show)

[whomario]

There's also going to be targeted treatments available rather than the quick-fix repurposed ones.
It's going to become part of life but tolerable, essentially flu 2.0. If we are smart we keep some common sense stuff going like higher acceptance for people and kids staying home sick (health insurance and employees/employers being reimbursed is a good tool here ...) and social pressures demanding that outside work, generally being more careful and doing simple shit like hand washing and being more mindful of ventilation. Maybe even wear masks when coughing and sneezing.
Because that way we also lower the damage from a host of different infectious diseases with flu at the forefront. I mean, flu was essentially nonexistant in the southern hemisphere this year. Because flu viruses aren't actually that great at spreading, just criminally ignored ...

[tarcone]

25% of our staff out tomorrow. Plus 37 kids.

Shit is bad. I do not want it.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by molson

AstraZeneca/Oxford is planning on producing 2 billion doses of their vaccine next year, Moderna should also produce at least a billion of theirs too. There's dozens of other vaccines candidates, at least some of whom will get approved next year.

True but their efficacy is unknown. Apparently 50% is acceptable for all in-progress vaccines but obviously the Pfizer 90% is better.

Nowhere close to everyone is going to get it, I'd be surprised if half did in the U.S., but at some point the herd immunity defense between existing antibodies and vaccinated people is going to be high enough for infection to be a lot more rare and manageable. Everybody's going to have a different personal risk tolerance for when they stop wearing masks, start traveling, going to events, etc., and I'm sure we'll fight with each other over that. But I wonder how the world would respond to a rare-ish but not extinguished COVID that we vaccinate for every year. Do we still socially distance? Will we need proof of vaccination to attend sporting events, board planes etc? Can't wait for that shit show! (It would be better than the current shit show)

Agree with first bolded. On the second, my guess is it become mainstream with just another "flu shot". Some vulnerable will still die of it (just like the flu). In the US, I think we'll revert back to the way it was but we'll probably take the annual shots more seriously for the foreseeable future.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

True but their efficacy is unknown. Apparently 50% is acceptable for all in-progress vaccines but obviously the Pfizer 90% is better.



Agree with first bolded. On the second, my guess is it become mainstream with just another "flu shot". Some vulnerable will still die of it (just like the flu). In the US, I think we'll revert back to the way it was but we'll probably take the annual shots more seriously for the foreseeable future.

I did read that there is another company that has a near identical vaccine to Pfizer. It is possible we are going to have two vaccine with almost the exact effectiveness.

[Edward64]

Here's an update on a China Phase 3 vaccine.

FWIW, I hope this is just a temporary pause and it continues on. Not that I don't trust western pharmas but a successful vaccine from China will mean that much sooner something is distributed worldwide and we put this crap behind us.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/10/healt...hnk/index.html

Brazil's health regulator has suspended trials of a Chinese-developed Covid-19 vaccine following a "serious adverse event" involving a volunteer recipient, according to sources cited by CNN's affiliate, CNN Brasil.

Chinese drugmaker Sinovac Biotech began Phase 3 trials of its CoronaVac in collaboration with the Brazilian Butantan Institute in Sao Paulo in late July, with an aim to recruit 130,000 volunteers. Phase 3 trials represent the final and most important testing stage before regulatory approval is sought.
The pause in testing marks a potential setback for one of China's leading vaccine candidates and comes as US drugmaker Pfizer said Monday that early data from its own coronavirus vaccine showed more than 90% effectiveness.

According to a note from Brazil's National Health Surveillance Agency, an incident reported on October 29 led to a decision to suspend the trial in order to better evaluate the data and assess the risk.

[Ksyrup]

BREAKING—20% of recovering #COVID19 patients develop mental illness within 90 days, says large US study. Increased *first-time diagnosis* of anxiety, depression & insomnia by 2-fold! And researchers also found significantly higher risks of dementia. 🧵https://t.co/ahzlKNZVbO pic.twitter.com/b6Bf1w7uw6

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) November 10, 2020

[HerRealName]

Thanks for sharing. My daughter had Covid several months ago and has been dealing with a lot of anxiety lately. She's on medication now and it seems to be helping. The virus is a bitch.

[Ghost Econ]

We're almost certainly above 350,000 excess deaths so far this year. There's an outside shot we'll get to 450k depending on how relaxed restrictions get over the next month.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Wife gets daily hospital capacity updates in KC metro area since she's a doctor at one of the hospitals. There's around 15 hospitals that she gets info on. This morning, 13 were within 10% of capacity and the other two were diverting patients because they were at capacity.

Interestingly enough, the majority of patients are not from the KC metro area. The majority of patients are rural residents in areas where they still do not have mandated masks. At some point, the KC hospitals are going to start pushing these patients away to rural care and you're going to see an uptick in bad endings in those areas because the care simply isn't as good for obvious reasons.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Wife gets daily hospital capacity updates in KC metro area since she's a doctor at one of the hospitals. There's around 15 hospitals that she gets info on. This morning, 13 were within 10% of capacity and the other two were diverting patients because they were at capacity.

Interestingly enough, the majority of patients are not from the KC metro area. The majority of patients are rural residents in areas where they still do not have mandated masks. At some point, the KC hospitals are going to start pushing these patients away to rural care and you're going to see an uptick in bad endings in those areas because the care simply isn't as good for obvious reasons.

And one always has to keep in mind that hospitals are not actually 'designed' to run at or near capacity. The national average usually is sth like 65-70% if i remember correctly (and Most will have increased their physical capacity, so 90% now would have been more before all this). A friend of mine is working at a hospital in an Admin capacity and likened operating above normal by more than a bit to a really bad Luxury Tax in terms of workload and ressources and also staff getting into trouble physically and mentally.

Coincidentily this rural/urban thing came up in a discussion the other day and i looked it up. Quite counterintuitively rural counties have been disproportionally hit on a per capita basis since the summer and it's climbing. Late October it was nearing 30% of all cases and deaths per day, yet those counties "Outside Metropolitan Areas" (as defined by the office of Management and budget) only encompass 15% of US Citizens.

And yeah, people don't realise that not every hospital is equipped to handle every patient. And that's not just Covid , but a bunch of others that a decent chunk of hospitals can't really treat effectively.

[sterlingice]

In Houston, the number seems to be around 80% being the sweet spot for profitability vs capacity. But, yeah, when you start hitting like 90%+, then elective surgeries start getting moved for capacity.

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-upda...pital-systems/
In Houston, we're actually in good shape right now (I mean, as good as a major city can be). It's nothing like the beginning of the summer when we were a hot spot, though positive test rates are creeping up closer to 5% now.

SI

[whomario]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

In Houston, the number seems to be around 80% being the sweet spot for profitability vs capacity. But, yeah, when you start hitting like 90%+, then elective surgeries start getting moved for capacity.

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-upda...pital-systems/
In Houston, we're actually in good shape right now (I mean, as good as a major city can be). It's nothing like the beginning of the summer when we were a hot spot, though positive test rates are creeping up closer to 5% now.

SI

Weather being what it is likely helps a lot in some areas still, what with people spending time outside rather than inside. Can't judge more than the basics, but partly that also impacts Indoor spaces as you are more likely to ventilate vs an area that has colder temperatures. Whereas in Summer it maybe was so hot people stayed inside with ineffective ACs etc ...

Texas also has generally lower than average levels of deaths from flu and pneumonia IIRC from when i looked that up a while back.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

BREAKING—20% of recovering #COVID19 patients develop mental illness within 90 days, says large US study. Increased *first-time diagnosis* of anxiety, depression & insomnia by 2-fold! And researchers also found significantly higher risks of dementia. 🧵https://t.co/ahzlKNZVbO pic.twitter.com/b6Bf1w7uw6

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) November 10, 2020

The dementia part is scary, the rest I'm curious on how much has anything to do with the disease, and how much has to do with people in general having increased anxiety & depression, but COVID-19 positive patients being the ones much more likely to interact with doctors and thus get diagnosed.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

The dementia part is scary, the rest I'm curious on how much has anything to do with the disease, and how much has to do with people in general having increased anxiety & depression, but COVID-19 positive patients being the ones much more likely to interact with doctors and thus get diagnosed.

I was thinking about this, as well. I wonder what % of the general population is having more mental health issues this year.

That said, SARS had a pretty significant mental health component, too, so it would stand to reason that COVID could affect people in a similar way.

SI

[GrantDawg]

My brother in law was diagnosed last week. The good news is he has been doing ok mostly, even though he has a couple of comorbidity issues and is several years older than me. He is a preacher, and because he spends a good bit of time with older people, he does wear a mask. His masks wearing along with social distancing protocols has basically split the church. Several members that I love and used to respect have left, even though the elders have not forced anybody to wear a mask. It is just recommended, along with social distancing. One of the non-mask wearers that haven't left gave him the virus.

[Ksyrup]

We've already had more cases in the 1st 10 days of November in Kentucky than we had from March through June.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I was thinking about this, as well. I wonder what % of the general population is having more mental health issues this year.

I'd also love to see if/how those numbers correlate with the size of their medical bills.

[JPhillips]

New high in hospitalizations. Be careful and wear a mask.

[GrantDawg]

My brother in law was just admitted to the hospital. His oxygen level was down to 91, and he was no longer able to move around. We will know more soon, but wife is so upset she can't be with him right now.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[Thomkal]

My thoughts are with your family Grant

[JPhillips]

God bless, Grant.

[Lathum]

oof, thinking good thoughts Grant

[CrimsonFox]

Anti-LGBTQ “evangelical advisor” to Trump dies just weeks after attending Rose Garden spreader event / LGBTQ Nation

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

My brother in law was just admitted to the hospital. His oxygen level was down to 91, and he was no longer able to move around. We will know more soon, but wife is so upset she can't be with him right now.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Best wishes to your BIL and family.

[Edward64]

Have my first dental cleaning of the year (I'm actually pretty overdue). Possibly need a new filling because I've got some sensitivity.

He's a good guy and its a decent size practice. I'm know he will be diligent on procedures and sanitation.

Just wondering if anyone else gone to the dentist recently and their experience?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Have my first dental cleaning of the year (I'm actually pretty overdue). Possibly need a new filling because I've got some sensitivity.

He's a good guy and its a decent size practice. I'm know he will be diligent on procedures and sanitation.

Just wondering if anyone else gone to the dentist recently and their experience?

Been a few times with no issue. TBH the dentist needs to be far more concerned about you getting them sick. Mine wore a mask and face shield the whole time. They also had me rinse with peroxide, which was weird but oddly refreshing.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Been a few times with no issue. TBH the dentist needs to be far more concerned about you getting them sick. Mine wore a mask and face shield the whole time. They also had me rinse with peroxide, which was weird but oddly refreshing.

Same. Put it off for a few months, but went through with my first root canal (plus the resultant filling/crown), yay 2020! I don't really see any way washing my hands or rinsing my mouth (mine was with listerine) for 30 seconds is really gonna protect either of us against COVID transmission if one of us unknowingly had it since I have an open mouth within a foot of each other for an hour+, but it's not like they can do much else.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Anti-LGBTQ “evangelical advisor” to Trump dies just weeks after attending Rose Garden spreader event / LGBTQ Nation

I hope God had some choice words for him.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Have my first dental cleaning of the year (I'm actually pretty overdue). Possibly need a new filling because I've got some sensitivity.

He's a good guy and its a decent size practice. I'm know he will be diligent on procedures and sanitation.

Just wondering if anyone else gone to the dentist recently and their experience?

I just went today and had a crown finished. They were actually mostly closed for the first couple months except for emergencies. Now you have to call when you get there for your appointment, and at first they met you at your car and asked the usual questions about COVID. Now they ask over the phone, clear you to come in, and when you get there take your temperature, and give you a mask to wear. They have plexiglass all around their office area, and everybody that works there has a mask on.They have hand sanitizer there too.

They have a place in each exam room to hang up your mask. I'm personally glad they go through all this-because I would have had to stop going to him after he pretty much saved my mouth because it was pretty bad for a long time.

[AlexB]

Looks like the second wave is finally hitting my county. For the last 5-6 months we have not had new daily case getting into the 30s (population c.160,000), but yesterday 39, today 44

Still small numbers, but roughly double the number of case within a week is not good

[Ksyrup]

KY passed 2K cases a day for the 1st time just a week ago, and now we've hit 3K+ 2 days in a row.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

KY passed 2K cases a day for the 1st time just a week ago, and now we've hit 3K+ 2 days in a row.

Pretty sure our schools won't be going back. They are going back to online only for next week on a week to week basis. I imagine it continues until early next year. No way are they going back right now.

[Ksyrup]

In Woodford county, only HS and MS are virtual next week, and it's only because so many staff are out that they can't effectively run in-person school. But I'll be shocked if they don't just shut it down from Thanksgiving until after winter break in January.

[CrimsonFox]

so remember back in March/april when governors were setting up tents outside to treat overflow and scrambling for ppe and ventilators and having to order from other countries and have it privately flown to keep trumps goons from stealing it all?

So like is any of that stuff happening now...or are supplies and stockpiles good?

spidey sense says some of them sat on their thumbs and did not stockpile or prepare for a second wave during the summer.

[NobodyHere]

I have to wonder how many random Americans would be diagnosed with a mental illness if tested.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I have to wonder how many random Americans would be diagnosed with a mental illness if tested.

Roughly 72 million

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by AlexB

Looks like the second wave is finally hitting my county. For the last 5-6 months we have not had new daily case getting into the 30s (population c.160,000), but yesterday 39, today 44

Still small numbers, but roughly double the number of case within a week is not good

Perhaps a second wave at Number 10

[RainMaker]

There Isn’t a Coronavirus ‘Second Wave’ | The White House

[Edward64]

With us in the midst of a second wave and predictions it will get worse before better, anyone doing or buying anything extra? I know Biden has said no lock-down but food supply chain may get challenged again.

I took stock this weekend. We are good with paper products, sanitizers and basic foods (I think). But was thinking of

1) Couple additional bottles of whiskey
2) A spare bag of dog food (1 month supply)
3) We already have a turkey but need to buy the trimmings and a pie

Biggest issue from last time around was fresh foods like vegetables & eggs.

Also, one big difference is the conventional wisdom that take-outs are probably safe. If take-outs were operating back then, probably wouldn't have felt as bad.