Strategy Notes

[MalcPow]

I'm not going to type up an uber-long post, but I just thought I'd toss out some ramblings on what we learned from the ECFL's free agent bedlam stage last time around.

-These silly little FOF men sign at completely random times. We'll be in the FA2 stages, which means that any guy with an offer will sign in the FA2-3 stage (the same holds for FA2-4 and FA2-5), but there really isn't a whole lot of rhyme or reason for when guys will sign in those first three stages. A guy with one monster offer, far exceeding his reasonable value, and no other interest, will chill for a couple stages for no real reason. A guy with twenty-five offers, all pretty close to each other, and almost certain to benefit from a couple extra stages of bidding, will sign immediately. So anticipate some frustration with the timing of signing, but also recognize that any bidding wars will end in the third stage. Also know that anybody out there in the fourth and fifth stages will sign the best offer they get immediately.

-In the ECFL, Quik put something like 120 offers out in the initial stage. A lot of those guys signed immediately and his cap situation was instantly very interesting. The doubly unfortunate thing was the fact that none of his insta-signees were a QB. Casting the net wide in the opening stage has some definite merits, be prepared to get screwed if you sign 8 DTs and you've got no money left for skill guys.

-Sort of an extension of the last note, but mind your bonus dollars. Obviously the FAs love the bonus money, but that's also the stuff that destroys your cap if things unfold in a wacky way. Try not to screw yourself completely in one orgasmic stage of bonus tossing.

-The RFA-age rules and the lack of a franchise tag should be really interesting. Cheap RFA-age guys were getting one year offers all over the place in our original setup, as were mega one year offers to established stars. Eliminating those strategies is going to magnify the impact of some of the big signings. Bear in mind you're going to be saddled with those contracts for awhile.

What are you guys thinking?

[Coffee Warlord]

I'm thinking there's going to be a whole lot of insane bidding going on for the QB's.

[direct.entropy]

I bet there will be too.... and a lot of cap issues. Should be a lot of fun.

And thanks MalcPow for that little write-up. You certainly didn't have to share that but it will be helpful.

[Tormaz]

I'll probably royally screw up and over estimate what people are willing to pay leading to lots of overpaying on my end. haha

[Doug5984]

I think I'm way undervaluing some guys, while over valuing some of the better ones... If I get everyone I just bid on I will be in cap hell in a few years, considering how my other leagues have gone Im looking forward to having to think about my spending.

[Tormaz]

Any way this turns out should be helpful to me. It will definitely let me know if I have a clue as to how to build a team.

[RipMurdock]

What if a player expressly states that he wants to sign in stage 4, for example? Does he honor that statement or does he cave in in stage 1 to a top offer?

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by RipMurdock

What if a player expressly states that he wants to sign in stage 4, for example? Does he honor that statement or does he cave in in stage 1 to a top offer?

I believe those numbers were intended for FA1, first off. The game doesn't expect all this talent to be there at this stage. Second, yes, a guy will accept a big offer before the stage number listed. In MP FOF, the smart strategy is to completely ignore the stage numbers and salary requests in free agency, and go after the guys you want at a level that jibes with what percentage of your cap space you think they're worth. In other words, if you're set at 21 starting positions, and there's a stud available at position #22, you offer nearly all of the rest of your cap space for him. If you don't, someone else will, and he will win.

[Ben E Lou]

Dola:

To be clear, those numbers work pretty well in a single player environment where the human player and the AI usually "color within the lines" for the most part. A player asks for something, the AI offers something around that amount. The human decides if this is the guy he wants. If so, he offers a bit more than the request, and he gets the guy. The guy signs at or near the stage he's saying he'll sign, for a little more or a little less than his asking price. Nice and tidy.

But in multiplayer, savvy people aren't valuing players in relation to the game algorithm that spits out those numbers, so that stuff is pretty much irrelevant.

[Coffee Warlord]

Well, we'll see if my first stage offer strategy works, or if I just doomed myself.

[Julio Riddols]

The anticipation is killing me.. And I have an idea I am going to try in stage 2.

[Ben E Lou]

There's a ton to take into account with all of this. I'm particularly curious to see what happens with guys like QB Travis Quackenbush. Will someone go all-out on a guy like that to go for the quick title, or do the younger QBs get the better offers early?

This stage will be *HUGE*

[eckman]

This opening round strategy is going to make my head explode. I have no idea how to approach this and spread my cap out. This is going to be interesting and pretty exciting. Will I blow my cap or will I be a cheapskate and and lose out on all the talent. Get your popcorn ready


In all the testing what % of these guys sign in the opening round? I am guessing I should put in a ton of offers this round just so I can sign a few players one way or another.

[johnnyshaka]

Curious to see how the rookies, particularly the low current/high potential guys get rewarded...and, consequently, how many pissed off GMs there are following their post-TC downward bump.

[Suicane75]

This export has been harder on my elbow than internet porn. I hope I dont end up with a 200 man roster.

[Coffee Warlord]

Well...offense is done anyway. Now another billion defenders.

[PackerFanatic]

I guess having the initial file get messed up was a good thing...made me relook at a lot of the offers I made, and then make twice as many.

This aspect certainly adds a neat wrinkle to the league though...never are you taking over someone elses team. This will always be your baby from the start. Should be fun!

[zbuckley]

I have no idea what to expect with all this FA offers going out.

[Tasan]

I've exported, it was just plain nuts, and I'll probably have to do 50% of it over again because you yahoos will steal my guys.

[Coffee Warlord]

I'd say they were all my guys, but if they were, I'd be at about 2 billion on the cap.

[Tormaz]

I'll probably be right at the cap with 5 people signed. I'll have to sign scrubs at the league min just to fill out a roster, lol.

[johnnyshaka]

Originally Posted by Tormaz

I'll probably be right at the cap with 5 people signed. I'll have to sign scrubs at the league min just to fill out a roster, lol.

Yikes...I don't think I offered enough to the guys I really wanted.

[MalcPow]

Didn't end up making as many offers as I had planned, we'll see how that works out for me. *shurg*

[Mr. Olympia]

Originally Posted by Tormaz

I'll probably be right at the cap with 5 people signed. I'll have to sign scrubs at the league min just to fill out a roster, lol.

Is there a penalty for this kind of strategy, other than the ingame draft pick loss? What is the penalty for being over the cap?


If I sign 5 guys that put me at the cap and then do nothing, having the computer then sign the remaining guys to fill my roster putting me over the cap, is there a LEague penalty for this?


I still have not decided on what strategy to use. Win this year, or wait untill next year when many teams will be in cap hell.

[Ben E Lou]

Nah. No penalty there. I tend to doubt that strat would work very well, but I'd be curious to see someone give it a shot.

[Tormaz]

I wasn't really serious. If I signed all the big guys I went after with big contracts then I could be in trouble but I just don't see it working out that way.

I expect that some of the guys I offered big contracts to will get bigger ones from other people.

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by johnnyshaka

Yikes...I don't think I offered enough to the guys I really wanted.

That is how I am feeling too, haha.

[Coffee Warlord]

Ditto, but dammit, I'm going to be sensible in my cap numbers.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Ditto, but dammit, I'm going to be sensible in my cap numbers.

So am I. It's a marathon, not a sprint. Someone may get some key guys and win it this year with everyone killed on cohesion, but I build my teams for the long haul.

Worst case is several teams pick up key guys and are out of cap, and I can fill in with all the second tier guys no one can afford anymore

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

So am I. It's a marathon, not a sprint. Someone may get some key guys and win it this year with everyone killed on cohesion, but I build my teams for the long haul.:

Indeed. I need to pace myself in my record setting losing seasons!

[jwolf02]

My head hurts. I've never been so overwhelmed with anything game related. I'm pretty sure I'm going to miss out on the guys I love, and overpay the guys I'm targeting to be role players. I'm really, really looking forward to 12:30.

[Tasan]

Originally Posted by jwolf02

My head hurts. I've never been so overwhelmed with anything game related. I'm pretty sure I'm going to miss out on the guys I love, and overpay the guys I'm targeting to be role players. I'm really, really looking forward to 12:30.

Less than an hour to go!

I think I put in around 6-8 hours full of spreadsheets and alt tabbing to figure out a roster I wanted and make offers to lots of guys. Here's hoping for at least some success in signing guys.

[jwolf02]

That's what killed me. I know where I want to go, but what if I miss out on the guys I really want/need to get me there? What if I get three or four when I only needed one or two?

[Coffee Warlord]

You know, I think the following couple of days is actually MORE important to my overall strategy than this first one is.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

You know, I think the following couple of days is actually MORE important to my overall strategy than this first one is.

I would agree with that.

[Coffee Warlord]

And whoo. Everyone got their files in!

[Cringer]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

You know, I think the following couple of days is actually MORE important to my overall strategy than this first one is.

I agree just because as is with normal FA in MP I kind of take the first stage as a stage to feel out where other owner's offers will fall and how I move on from there. I made a bunch of offers of course, but I wouldn't be surprised if I am way below others and need to adjust up if I want to pay that much.

[direct.entropy]

I can just imagine Detroit, Philly, Miami and all the teams with the big name but old free agents crying as they glance at the post-TC sim.

I hope most owners do keep some diary or their notes so that in a few seasons we can see which owners managed to build the way they wanted to build their team.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by direct.entropy

...we can see which owners managed to build the way they wanted to build their team.

If the guys I had huge leads in offers on actually had SIGNED, I'd be exactly where I want to be. But these guys need to actually SIGN.

[Tormaz]

Originally Posted by direct.entropy

I can just imagine Detroit, Philly, Miami and all the teams with the big name but old free agents crying as they glance at the post-TC sim.

I hope most owners do keep some diary or their notes so that in a few seasons we can see which owners managed to build the way they wanted to build their team.

We have old guys but not a single one I would classify as "big name". They are all just average guys signed for roster fillers.

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

If the guys I had huge leads in offers on actually had SIGNED, I'd be exactly where I want to be. But these guys need to actually SIGN.

+1

[Coffee Warlord]

I am amazed at some of the FA's with gargantuan offers that haven't signed.

[Cringer]

My strategy had a major flaw. While I paid some big money to some guys, I didn't do it enough to get a couple more top level guys. I was spreading things around in offers too much I think. I don't have a problem with my team really, and am pretty happy with things overall. With that said, it could be better though and instead I will be left with a good chunk of cap money I think, with what may be very few free agents next year to even look forward to spending it on.

I may have to make a trade to spend some of it.

[Coffee Warlord]

There should be a good chunk of FA's next year actually, with several players still signing 1 year megadeals.

[Cringer]

True, there won't be nothing to work with I guess.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by Cringer

My strategy had a major flaw. While I paid some big money to some guys, I didn't do it enough to get a couple more top level guys. I was spreading things around in offers too much I think.

That didn't necessarily work. I had a bunch of guys with $30mil or more bonuses (and taking up $12-$14mil in cap space each year) sit on offers until stage 3, even with no one else close.

My hope was to spend a ton of bonus money this year (killing profit for one year) and land a bunch of young starters, then fill in the gaps with minsal placeholder guys, taking a risk on injuries. Then draft picks could start filling out my depth over the next couple of seasons.

Instead I got a young team, not quite as good as I wanted, but with better depth, but still very little cap. The season should be interesting...