Werewolf CLI: Schrodinger's Werewolf: GAME OVER, WOLVES WIN

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

And now the transformation is complete as Chief and mau have backed off each other entirely and pinned their votes on CF.

I think the logical choice here is to vote for you. It is all just a bit too coincidental that you mau had this blow up, went in different directions, and now have pinned your vote back on square one.

mhmm

[britrock88]

One other thing comes to mind -- where are Abe and DT in all of this? I'm not activity-pinging; I'm trying to figure out what role they play, as their relative silence gives fewer clues to pick up on.

[mauchow]

Just so we understand as we get closer to deadline --- if the voting is 5-3 for a person, you're on the wrong side of the voting if you're on the (5) team.

[mauchow]

And I'm talking to the villager -- if you are the 5 side of the voting when this goes down, switch it for the tie.

The cultist knows where teh wolves are going and will vote their way. The wolves are 100% going one way or another today. 100% guaranteed.

[mauchow]

Come to think of it, we're pretty much screwed as a village. If the tie kills both or neither, the village will never be able to get ahead.

[mauchow]

Damn it. I've been playing my ass off today.

[mauchow]

I guess I shouldnt be saying this stuff.. sorry

[britrock88]

I have my doubts all 4 baddies will vote the same way.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Come to think of it, we're pretty much screwed as a village. If the tie kills both or neither, the village will never be able to get ahead.

Which is why it is paramount that we don't miss today. I also think that leads more credence to your and Chief's blowup. Confuse the hell out of everyone and hope we just end in a tie or whatever.

The village can still win this thing, but its going to take a spectacular play from the real bg tonight.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by britrock88

One thing I'm hung up on is why mau (or any BG who revealed) would lay out who they protected in a situation where the village's backs are against the wall. Why give the wolves any extra information as to whom the BG trusts, or whom the BG is able/unable to protect tonight?

This stuck out to me too when I was thinking this over today.

XMas shopping was mildly successful. Between 1-3 more presents still to pickup.

[mauchow]

Run the numbers.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by britrock88

One other thing comes to mind -- where are Abe and DT in all of this? I'm not activity-pinging; I'm trying to figure out what role they play, as their relative silence gives fewer clues to pick up on.

relative quiet? I've been busy all day (as i stated last night and early this morning). Trying to catch up and think it through right now.

[britrock88]

Oh yeah, no worries, DT. Hopefully we manage the easier reads first.

[britrock88]

My only concern is that we find an honest-to-God wolf instead of just the cultist today.

[britrock88]

We'll be in the same situation tomorrow if we lynch a wolf today. 4:2 village (barring a block) with the cultist having wolfish sympathies. We have to hope the wolves accidentally NK the cultist at some point.

[britrock88]

In fact, it might even help the wolves' cause if the cultist were to reveal...

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by britrock88

In fact, it might even help the wolves' cause if the cultist were to reveal...

Go ahead and reveal then.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Oh yeah, no worries, DT. Hopefully we manage the easier reads first.

I'm actually on the train on the way home, more detailed posts will have to wait till I get home I think (unless I get inspired).

Initially when mau revealed I was very suspicious and was expecting a counter-reveal, and was also curious to see where his posts about CR (didn't he have some last night right after the reveal) went.

The lack of any counter-reveal tells me that either he's the real BG, or else for some reason the real-BG hasn't been on today (is that true of anyone?) or hasn't done the math. But really...yeah...I'm leaning 99.some odd percent that he's the BG.

That doesn't mean he necessarily has any better read on any of the other players in the game than a regular villager though - I just think it's important to point that out.

He gets bonus points for being the BG in terms of trust, but that doesn't make his logic infallible. So I'm not about to just pile on whoever he thinks I should - and nor should anyone else.

I'm not sure what the current vote-count is like, I haven't been around to keep it updated, so not sure what the situation is, although I gather it's CR vs. CF? I'll want to go home and look through the game and try to figure out what I think between those two.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by britrock88

One other thing comes to mind -- where are Abe and DT in all of this? I'm not activity-pinging; I'm trying to figure out what role they play, as their relative silence gives fewer clues to pick up on.

I've been relatively silent????

[GoldenEagle]

If mauboy is a wolf and did a fake reveal, it would benefit the wolves to know who the real bodyguard is. If there plan goes wrong, they know who the bg is and gives them a backup option to still win the game.

It is a pretty slick play.

[britrock88]

Well, you weren't in the mau/CR smoke-and-mirrors bit, you haven't been spamming the board posting about it like I have... it's not meant as a slight.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Go ahead and reveal then.

I guffawed at this.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Just so we understand as we get closer to deadline --- if the voting is 5-3 for a person, you're on the wrong side of the voting if you're on the (5) team.

It could be villager-villager. It could be the villager is split 1-3 or 2-2 across two candidates so the wolves/cultist do as well, etc. And it could be a lot of votes on a wolf early, and then wolves are pushing you to move late.

[DaddyTorgo]

Just had a caffeine-deprived thought:

wolves + cultist are 4/8 of the game right now. They can force a tie tonight and roll the dice with a double-kill vs. no-kill and put mau on the block that way and take their chances with a night-kill avoiding him if he survives.

Gaming that scenario out, because it's scary:

Mau (BG) vs. wolf/cultist on block - double kill would leave the game at 3 (2 wolves + cultist) vs. 4 villagers. Night-kill would make it 3:3. Following that pattern, we'd lose via night-kills without the BG being around, right? Even if it was dragged out (a double-kill day to make it 2:2, then a night-kill). I think this holds true in any scenario, and even faster if the wolves/cultist put the cultist on the block via their ability to tie. Since he counts as a villager but cooperates with the furries. Is my math correct on that? I'm caffeine-deprived, so I'm not quite sure. Also coming to the end of my train ride, so I can't really check it anymore.

If it's a no-kill then it's 4:4 (assuming no BG block of the night kill) and we're done?

Mau (BG) vs. non-wolf tonight: If it's a double-kill it's game-over. If it's a no-kill then we have to hope for a BG-block to keep us in the game.

So basically it's down to hoping we have a wolf on the block, we get a no-kill, and that we get a BG-block?

Fuck me. Yikes.

[mauchow]

The only way, we as a village have a chance is if one of the wolves or cultist don't vote...

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

If mauboy is a wolf and did a fake reveal, it would benefit the wolves to know who the real bodyguard is. If there plan goes wrong, they know who the bg is and gives them a backup option to still win the game.

It is a pretty slick play.

If I were the BG, I would counter-reveal to help the village know more if I did not protect myself N3. However, right now, there are two ways we win. The first is by lynching a wolf. The second is a BG block to get us to tomorrow. I think it's cards on the table time now for the village, and i respect mauboy as trh bg until someone tells me he's not. I might still buy him as the bg post counter-reveal.

Now, if we lynch the Cultist today, then barring a block, we still lose tomorrow. We cannot afford to let the Cultist mess with us overly much. We have to stay on good targets. That's why I like CR as a target.

[GoldenEagle]

I am convinced the wolves have the Mayans on their side.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Just had a caffeine-deprived thought:

wolves + cultist are 4/8 of the game right now. They can force a tie tonight and roll the dice with a double-kill vs. no-kill and put mau on the block that way and take their chances with a night-kill avoiding him if he survives.

Gaming that scenario out, because it's scary:

Mau (BG) vs. wolf/cultist on block - double kill would leave the game at 3 (2 wolves + cultist) vs. 4 villagers. Night-kill would make it 3:3. Following that pattern, we'd lose via night-kills without the BG being around, right? Even if it was dragged out (a double-kill day to make it 2:2, then a night-kill). I think this holds true in any scenario, and even faster if the wolves/cultist put the cultist on the block via their ability to tie. Since he counts as a villager but cooperates with the furries. Is my math correct on that? I'm caffeine-deprived, so I'm not quite sure. Also coming to the end of my train ride, so I can't really check it anymore.

If it's a no-kill then it's 4:4 (assuming no BG block of the night kill) and we're done?

Mau (BG) vs. non-wolf tonight: If it's a double-kill it's game-over. If it's a no-kill then we have to hope for a BG-block to keep us in the game.

So basically it's down to hoping we have a wolf on the block, we get a no-kill, and that we get a BG-block?

Fuck me. Yikes.

I find that wolves rarely will play this loose with the rules. Hell, they could all reveal with the Cultist, roll the dice and win or lose fast. But, if they lose the dice role with no kill, and if they get a BG block....then it's still 4-4. So, wait...then they do it again the next day, and if they miss then they win.


So yeah. That works.


4-4 vote tonight one on mauboy and one on wolf.


If it works, then both are killed, free and clear kill, and then wolves win 3-2.


If it fails, and no BG block on kill, wolves win 4-3

If it fails, and BG block happens, still 4-4 tomorrow. Have a quick vote nightfall, and do the same, 4 on mauboy, and 4 on everyone else. Again in same sitaution.


It is impossible for the wolves/Cultist to loses if they do that plan.



But like I said, that rarely if ever happens, because plaeyrs are not that ballsy. Plus it requires the wovles to trust whoever reveals as the Cultist in teh thread won;t jump ship at the last minute and vote against them. and my math or reading of the rules may be wrong.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

If I were the BG, I would counter-reveal to help the village know more if I did not protect myself N3. However, right now, there are two ways we win. The first is by lynching a wolf. The second is a BG block to get us to tomorrow. I think it's cards on the table time now for the village, and i respect mauboy as trh bg until someone tells me he's not. I might still buy him as the bg post counter-reveal.

Now, if we lynch the Cultist today, then barring a block, we still lose tomorrow. We cannot afford to let the Cultist mess with us overly much. We have to stay on good targets. That's why I like CR as a target.

Maybe. But I think if the wolves knew the true identity of the bg, then that helps them. Of course, they still don't know who the bg protected, but it is really the last piece of the wolf puzzle, so to speak.

So I am torn on the real bg counter revealing if mau is in fact a wolf or the cultist.

[CrimsonFox]

Back from job 1. sent home from job 2 sick. fuck i knew i should have had danny or ef play instead. haven't had time for this.

I am a villager. That's all i can say.

Originally Posted by Simbo Klice

Based on votes, I'm thinking the baddies are mauboy, CF, GoldenEagle, and Abe.

Based on votes? Huh? We haven't found ANY wolves yet. So how are you saying I;m a wolf based on votes. Yes I've voted for villagers but mostly out of self defense as I don't know who they are either and everyone keeps the ball rolling on me. DO you guys really want to get portaled again? (aka keep voting for the same people every round until we lose?)

[mauchow]

I don't think there is much point in playing anymore.

[mauchow]

LIke I said, if the village wins that would be a massive fail on the wolves part.

[Abe Sargent]

Lewt's liven it up for your mauboy

[Abe Sargent]

unvote Chief Rum
Vote mauboy


Vote Nightfall

[Abe Sargent]

I am the Cultist

[DaddyTorgo]

Awesome. In typing that post of mine I zoned out and missed my train stop by 1 (first time I've ever done that in my life). Now I get to wait 30 minutes in the cold for a train coming back the other way, with no jacket.

So fuck you very much wolves.

[Abe Sargent]

In allof WW< I have been the Cultist never, except for last game, and now this game. You can imagine my surprise when I found out I was th eCultist twice in a row.


We don;t play this game this way, but why not live alittle. Let's push te hruel and see what happens.

[mauchow]

Figures

I am not the bodyguard. I am the simple villager.

[Abe Sargent]

Oh, and remind me to tell you what Autmum;s and mine pm echxhancge were after game, because I can't post htat stuff in thred

[mauchow]

There we go.

[mauchow]

Simbo is the body guard

[Abe Sargent]

I will NOT out any wolves, U'll let them talk it over first., and i did not send any signnals this game, because cleraly it didn;t work lsat game and I had never tried before so I wanted ot play this one different than last game, since i had identical roles

[mauchow]

unless by some miracle he's a wolf

[mauchow]

Yes I fake revealed body gaurd as a villager in hopes of pulling out the Cultist.. in the end it didn't matter.

[DaddyTorgo]

So are you saying you're the BG mau? Because otherwise you're a wolf, because you wouldn't know who was a villager or not (re: simbo).

You confuse me. From now on I'm voting for you just because you confuse the fuck out of me.

[mauchow]

Actually I think brit is the body guard maybe golden eagle

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

So are you saying you're the BG mau? Because otherwise you're a wolf, because you wouldn't know who was a villager or not (re: simbo).

You confuse me. From now on I'm voting for you just because you confuse the fuck out of me.

I am a villager. Simple one. Not a body guard.

[Abe Sargent]

In the meantime, come on wolves, let's do it. We NEVER play WW like this ever ever. If the math is wrong or whatever, let's lose spectacularly! Let's lose in a way that will go down forever in FOFC WW history! But if we win....

[mauchow]

I knew that if I was a slam dunk vote we would lose because of the numers then I concocted a plan to hope to get the cultist to also fake reveal and pull that reveal out and hope the body guard was still hidden, which he is. THe plan worked exactly as I intended.. except it didn't matter.

[mauchow]

Get the cultist to fake reveal as a BG, that is. NOt fake reveal as a cultist..