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04-15-2009, 01:49 AM
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#1751 | |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
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Quote:
Hi dubb!
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
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04-15-2009, 01:50 AM
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#1752 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2004
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Quote:
If only you were still alive. |
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04-15-2009, 01:56 AM
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#1753 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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How does it not make sense? Whichever of you is Lumberg will likely switch off and self vote, either attempting to tie the vote or make sure Lumberg is killed which gives you the win.
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04-15-2009, 02:35 AM
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#1754 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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I've been rethinking things and I've come to the conclusion we are all villagers and it's really Terry Tate taking us out one by one.
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04-15-2009, 03:05 AM
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#1755 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Right now it is
Autumn 2 (PurdueBrad, Dubb) Dubb 2 (Danny, Autumn) |
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04-15-2009, 05:38 AM
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#1756 | |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Quote:
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04-15-2009, 05:41 AM
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#1757 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Here's what I need to ponder. We need to take out the convert today because otherwise we still lose. So between Autumn and dubb I would like to think that dubb would be more likely to be Lumberg and Autumn more likely to be the convert. But I really need to think about this a little more before casting my vote.
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04-15-2009, 06:24 AM
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#1758 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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BK, I agree whole-heartedly, which is why I'm still sitting on Autumn with my vote. Danny or Dubb would have to be Lumburgh and that leaves Autumn to be Drew. He certainly played high profile enough w/ the rope to draw the wolves' attention.
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04-15-2009, 07:14 AM
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#1759 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Ok new thought. PB, we know that you and I are villagers. This means that two out of three of Autumn, dubb, and Danny are wolves. Based on your PM do you think it's possible that Autumn and dubb could both be wolves? Or do you think it more likely that one of them is a wolf?
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04-15-2009, 07:16 AM
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#1760 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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I had wondered exactly what you are asking BK, but my guess would be no, that it is likely one or the other and Danny is the other wolf. That's conjecture on my part but that's all I can come up with.
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04-15-2009, 07:20 AM
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#1761 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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We have a 1/3 chance of hitting the villager and losing
a 1/3 chance of hitting Lumburgh and losing a 1/3 chance of hitting Drew and keeping the game alive Fairly daunting odds. I guess it comes down to this: Who is the more likely convert, Autumn or dubb Who is the more likely convert, Autumn or danny Who is the more likely convert, Danny or dubb Answer those and I think we go after whoever you use twice as an answer (hopefully not a different person for each!). I'll answer those same questions in my next post. |
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04-15-2009, 07:27 AM
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#1762 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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The wolves' nightkills or attempts: Schmidty, Claphamsa, The Jackal, *Drew*, *Block on CR*, CR, lerriuqs, *Block on BK*
Who is the more likely convert, Autumn or dubb: The wolves knew that Autumn had gained some trust at this point and he would make an attractive target. dubb was pretty UTR still and they didn't hit a UTR player until lerriuqs seemingly, which was three days after the convert. My answer here would be to have hit the guy with some trust, Autumn. Who is the more likely convert, Autumn or danny: Same as above, I think Autumn played a decent villager game early and Danny may have actually played a wolf game from day 1 (the pattern of second votes bothers me still). I would be more likely to go Autumn here as well. Who is the more likely convert, Danny or dubb: dubb was very UTR for a while which means the likelihood of him being guarded was low. I think that he would be a safe kill to go for. Danny is very similar as well but I would say of these two, dubb is more likely the convert. I'm 2 for Autumn, 1 for dubb, and I think Danny is a day one wolf. I do want to look back at the choice of The Jackal as a night kill, strikes me as odd looking back. |
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04-15-2009, 07:32 AM
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#1763 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Looking back briefly, don't have much on The Jackal night kill, not sure why it struck me as odd.
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04-15-2009, 07:48 AM
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#1764 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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I'm going to go through and update, with what we know, voting history. I'm then going to go do a voting history for each of the possibilities and see if a particular story makes more sense than another.
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04-15-2009, 08:01 AM
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#1765 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Dola - I do like your idea, btw, of doing the which pairing makes the most sense. I am hoping this exercise will help me with that analysis.
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04-15-2009, 08:15 AM
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#1766 | |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Quote:
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04-15-2009, 08:19 AM
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#1767 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Day 6
Clean: USFL - Abe, lerriuqs, Danny, Barkeep, dubb Abe – Purdue, lerriuqs, USFL, Autumn With unvotes: Danny – USFL – Abe, lerriuqs, Danny, Barkeep, dubb Abe – Purdue, Day 7 Clean: Abe – Barkeep, dubb, Purdue, Danny, Autumn Danny - Abe With unvotes: Abe – Barkeep – dubb, Danny – Dubb - |
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04-15-2009, 08:19 AM
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#1768 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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For the time being I'm going to assume that Danny is bad.
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04-15-2009, 08:25 AM
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#1769 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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How voting looks with Danny as the original wolf and dubb as the convert:
Day 1 Vote Coloring, including unvotes Hoops – Purdue, Jackal, CR, clap, Schmidty, Lathum Clap – Abe – Barkeep, USFL, Cartman – Martin, dubb Jackal – hoops Lerriqus – Cartman Schmidty – Poli Lathum – Pass – CR - Poli – Barkeep - Autumn – Day 3 voting, including unvotes Cartman – Autumn, Autumn – cartman, Danny, Martin, Barkeep – dubb, Abe – Martin – lerriuqs – Lathum – Day 4 Autumn 5 - Abe Sargent (989), Lathum (993), PurdueBrad (996), Poli (1098), USFLTecmo (1132) Lathum 7 - Barkeep49 (1036), Danny (1075), Autumn (1086), dubb93 (1087), lerriuqs (1096), MartinD (1115), CR (1146) Day 5 Voting Autumn – Purdue, Abe, Danny, lerriuqs, Barkeep Barkeep – dubb, Poli lerriuqs – Martin - Day 6 Clean: USFL - Abe, lerriuqs, Danny, Barkeep, dubb Abe – Purdue, lerriuqs, USFL, Autumn With unvotes: Danny – USFL – Abe, lerriuqs, Danny, Barkeep, dubb Abe – Purdue, Day 7 Clean: Abe – Barkeep, dubb, Purdue, Danny, Autumn Danny - Abe With unvotes: Abe – Barkeep – dubb, Danny – dubb - |
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04-15-2009, 08:33 AM
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#1770 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Corrected
Day 1 Vote Coloring, including unvotes Hoops – Purdue, Jackal, CR, clap, Schmidty, Lathum Clap – Abe – Barkeep, USFL, Cartman – Martin, dubb Jackal – hoops Lerriqus – Cartman Schmidty – Poli Lathum – Pass – CR - Poli – Barkeep - Autumn – Day 3 voting, including unvotes Cartman – Autumn, Autumn – cartman, Danny, Martin, Barkeep – dubb, Abe – Martin – lerriuqs – Lathum – Day 4 Autumn 5 - Abe, Lathum (993), Purdue, Poli, USFL Lathum 7 - Barkeep, Danny, Autumn, dubb, lerriuqs, MartinD (1115), CR Day 5 Voting Autumn – Purdue, Abe, Danny, lerriuqs, Barkeep Barkeep – dubb, Poli lerriuqs – Martin - Day 6 Clean: USFL - Abe, lerriuqs, Danny, Barkeep, dubb Abe – Purdue, lerriuqs, USFL, Autumn With unvotes: Danny – USFL – Abe, lerriuqs, Danny, Barkeep, dubb Abe – Purdue, Day 7 Clean: Abe – Barkeep, dubb, Purdue, Danny, Autumn Danny - Abe With unvotes: Abe – Barkeep – dubb, Danny – dubb - |
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04-15-2009, 08:37 AM
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#1771 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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BK, I will sit down in about an hour and study your voting history. Awesome work.
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04-15-2009, 08:39 AM
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#1772 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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With dubb as the original wolf and Danny as the convert
Day 1 Vote Coloring, including unvotes Hoops – Purdue, Jackal, CR, clap, Schmidty, Lathum Clap – Abe – Barkeep, USFL, Cartman – Martin, dubb Jackal – hoops lerriuqs – Cartman Schmidty – Poli Lathum – Pass – CR - Poli – Barkeep - Autumn – Day 3 voting, including unvotes Cartman – Autumn, Autumn – cartman, Danny, Martin, Barkeep – dubb, Abe – Martin – lerriuqs – Lathum – Day 4 Autumn 5 - Abe, Lathum (993), Purdue, Poli (1098), USFL Lathum 7 - Barkeep, Danny (1075), Autumn (1086), dubb93 (1087), lerriuqs (1096), MartinD (1115), CR (1146) Day 5 Voting Autumn – Purdue, Abe, Danny, lerriuqs, Barkeep Barkeep – dubb, Poli lerriuqs – Martin - Day 6 Clean: USFL - Abe, lerriuqs, Danny, Barkeep, dubb Abe – Purdue, lerriuqs, USFL, Autumn With unvotes: Danny – USFL – Abe, lerriuqs, Danny, Barkeep, dubb Abe – Purdue, Day 7 Clean: Abe – Barkeep, dubb, Purdue, Danny, Autumn Danny - Abe With unvotes: Abe – Barkeep – Danny – dubb - |
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04-15-2009, 08:39 AM
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#1773 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Gah. I hate that I keep messing this up.
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04-15-2009, 08:44 AM
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#1774 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Corrected version of Danny as convert, dubb as original (1st post had danny in blue through-out)
Day 1 Vote Coloring, including unvotes Hoops – Purdue, Jackal, CR, clap, Schmidty, Lathum Clap – Abe – Barkeep, USFL, Cartman – Martin, dubb Jackal – hoops lerriuqs – Cartman Schmidty – Poli Lathum – Pass – CR - Poli – Barkeep - Autumn – Day 3 voting, including unvotes Cartman – Autumn, Autumn – cartman, Danny, Martin, Barkeep – dubb, Abe – Martin – lerriuqs – Lathum – Day 4 Autumn 5 - Abe, Lathum (993), Purdue, Poli (1098), USFL Lathum 7 - Barkeep, Danny, Autumn, dubb , lerriuqs, MartinD (1115), CR (1146) Day 5 Voting Autumn – Purdue, Abe, Danny, lerriuqs, Barkeep Barkeep – dubb, Poli lerriuqs – Martin - Day 6 Clean: USFL - Abe, lerriuqs, Danny, Barkeep, dubb Abe – Purdue, lerriuqs, USFL, Autumn With unvotes: Danny – USFL – Abe, lerriuqs, Danny, Barkeep, dubb Abe – Purdue, Day 7 Clean: Abe – Barkeep, dubb, Purdue, Danny, Autumn Danny - Abe With unvotes: Abe – Barkeep – Danny – dubb - |
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04-15-2009, 08:47 AM
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#1775 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Danny as original wolf and Autumn as convert (and it's right this time)
Day 1 Vote Coloring, including unvotes Hoops – Purdue, Jackal, CR, clap, Schmidty, Lathum Clap – Abe – Barkeep, USFL, Cartman – Martin, dubb Jackal – hoops lerriuqs – Cartman Schmidty – Poli Lathum – Pass – CR - Poli – Barkeep - Autumn – Day 3 voting, including unvotes Cartman – Autumn, Autumn – cartman, Danny, Martin, Barkeep – dubb, Abe – Martin – lerriuqs – Lathum – Day 4 Autumn 5 - Abe, Lathum (993), Purdue, Poli (1098), USFL Lathum 7 - Barkeep, Danny, Autumn, dubb, lerriuqs, MartinD (1115), CR (1146) Day 5 Voting Autumn – Purdue, Abe, Danny, lerriuqs, Barkeep Barkeep – dubb, Poli lerriuqs – Martin - Day 6 Clean: USFL - Abe, lerriuqs, Danny, Barkeep, dubb Abe – Purdue, lerriuqs, USFL, Autumn With unvotes: Danny – USFL – Abe, lerriuqs, Danny, Barkeep, dubb Abe – Purdue, Day 7 Clean: Abe – Barkeep, dubb, Purdue, Danny, Autumn Danny - Abe With unvotes: Abe – Barkeep – Danny – dubb - |
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04-15-2009, 08:49 AM
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#1776 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Danny as convert, Autumn as original
Day 1 Vote Coloring, including unvotes Hoops – Purdue, Jackal, CR, clap, Schmidty, Lathum Clap – Abe – Barkeep, USFL, Cartman – Martin, dubb Jackal – hoops lerriuqs – Cartman Schmidty – Poli Lathum – Pass – CR - Poli – Barkeep - Autumn – Day 3 voting, including unvotes Cartman – Autumn, Autumn – cartman, Danny, Martin, Barkeep – dubb, Abe – Martin – lerriuqs – Lathum – Day 4 Autumn 5 - Abe, Lathum (993), Purdue, Poli (1098), USFL Lathum 7 - Barkeep, Danny, Autumn, dubb, lerriuqs, MartinD (1115), CR (1146) Day 5 Voting Autumn – Purdue, Abe, Danny, lerriuqs, Barkeep Barkeep – dubb, Poli lerriuqs – Martin - Day 6 Clean: USFL - Abe, lerriuqs, Danny, Barkeep, dubb Abe – Purdue, lerriuqs, USFL, Autumn With unvotes: Danny – USFL – Abe, lerriuqs, Danny, Barkeep, dubb Abe – Purdue, Day 7 Clean: Abe – Barkeep, dubb, Purdue, Danny, Autumn Danny - Abe With unvotes: Abe – Barkeep – Danny – dubb - |
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04-15-2009, 08:58 AM
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#1777 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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Gah, this just ate my post.
I think it's clear that DAnny and Dubbs are the remaining wolves. I agree that the stapler didn't work. However, the item description said htat it would give a good chance of fighting off an attacker and that it would injure the attacker. Chief confirmed both of these things. I can't see a wolf making that play just to gain trust, of missing out on a night kill and injuring a wolf. Thanks Barkeep, for this analysis. I agree that identifying the convert is key. We had already been talking about Danny because of his change in tone towards Lerruiqs during the game. I'll be looking at the votes to see if that makes sense. certainly it would make sense to me for hte wolves to send out the brutal last night just in case. |
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04-15-2009, 09:01 AM
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#1778 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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ugh
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04-15-2009, 09:04 AM
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#1779 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Quote:
Okay, "small chance of success" means that it would be a strong play to give up the stapler to gain some trust IMHO. I'm not necessarily saying that is what you did but it is a possibility. |
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04-15-2009, 09:04 AM
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#1780 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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This I think should confirm that there's no way I'm a wolf. It's clear that I had a lot of wolf votes on days where I very well could have been lynched if not for some villager action.
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04-15-2009, 09:05 AM
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#1781 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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I dont' really understand that writeup. The one I got from EF was more extensive. I'll double check it. I'm not sure what "blocked attack" refers to there.
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04-15-2009, 09:13 AM
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#1782 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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Well I guess it just said it gave a chance of fighting it off. It didn't say small, but it didn't say good either.
I think the voting record backs me up. I think using two found items to help out the villagers backs me up. The rope could have been used to tie up a person during the night action, which would have been amazingly useful to the wolves once the bodyguard and seer were outed. The stapler also could have been used to knock someone out during night action. The wolves would not have wasted these items on gaining "trust". |
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04-15-2009, 09:16 AM
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#1783 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Quote:
The split between Danny-Autumn on day 5 and 6 looks like traditional wolves splitting votes. Going back through the others momentarily. |
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04-15-2009, 09:22 AM
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#1784 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Autumn, pre-convert, day 3 you had multiple wolf votes. Unless I'm reading it wrong, that's the only day that happened. So that might make it so you aren't the original wolf but you could very well be the convert.
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04-15-2009, 09:23 AM
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#1785 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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It's hard to say what the voting record means. None of the wolves have ever garnered any real attention in the votes, so the wolves have been free to just go around wherever. But as you say, we really need to know which is the convert.
I've got to go get some work done. I'll check back in later. |
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04-15-2009, 09:24 AM
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#1786 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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Purdue, and Day 5 I was lynched, with a wolf vote. Boy, they're extra crafty!
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04-15-2009, 09:28 AM
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#1787 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Day 5 is JUST Danny, right? We've talked a lot this game about wolves sacrificing wolves and one vote on another wolf that gets lynched and to buy goodwill is definitely a possibility.
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04-15-2009, 09:30 AM
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#1788 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Now off to look at the Dubb-Danny possibilities.
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04-15-2009, 09:32 AM
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#1789 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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Whatever, PurdueBrad, vote where you want. You and Barkeep have this game in your hands, but chances are slim unless something becomes obvious in this analysis. I think the wolves have played me, managing to make the rope trick look bad, attacking Chief despite the stapler. But I can't prove it.
For now I'm going to go with the hunch that the wolves sent the Brutal last night, and so I'm going to UNVOTE DUBB VOTE DANNY I'll check in later and see if you guys have found something else out. |
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04-15-2009, 09:33 AM
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#1790 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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I'll be on for a bit at lunch time to update the votes. A little busy around here at the moment though.
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04-15-2009, 09:33 AM
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#1791 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Quote:
Day 5 strikes me as weird, hiding two wolf votes on a non-candidate this late in the game. I wouldn't think that would happen. But then I get to day 6 and the two votes on USFL is both a risky play but one that keeps Abe, a lightening rod for suspicion, in play. |
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04-15-2009, 10:55 AM
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#1792 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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PB how confident do you feel about being able to suss out the wolf?
If push came to shove I'd say it breaksdown as follows: Danny - Lumberg dubb - convert, I say this purely because his profile was very similar at the time to jackal's Autumn - Villager, I have trouble thinking that the wolves would voluntarily give up a night kill AND give up an object that might further prevent a night kill. |
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04-15-2009, 10:57 AM
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#1793 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Left off the second half of that post. I ask you PB about your confidence since my feel this game has been wrong (see Lathum and Abe). So if I'm not doing feel, then I resort to math. And the math says to kill Danny. But since that contradicts my feel, I would then go to a third resort which is following the lead of someone who not only I can trust but who has played this game well.
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04-15-2009, 11:29 AM
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#1794 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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I've been wrong too a lot. I will go dubb with you. I do think it is a A LOT to give up that they had the unknown player give up the stapler publicly. Danny has to be Lumberg so I want to stay away from him. Although Autumn will need to switch his vote as well.
unvote Autumn vote dubb |
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04-15-2009, 11:29 AM
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#1795 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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The day 6 vote where they get USFL out and preserve Abe as a scapegoat sells me on dubb.
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04-15-2009, 11:31 AM
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#1796 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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I tried to draw Danny's vote out to no avail so I'm committed to dubb and officially off of Autumn.
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04-15-2009, 11:33 AM
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#1797 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Autumn makes an interesting point though about sending the brutal out. I wonder why, at this point, if dubb isn't the brutal that he committed the kill. Theories here still include rotating kills, maybe the stapler did some damage to the brutal, or maybe dubb is the brutal.
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04-15-2009, 11:41 AM
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#1798 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Any WW'ers in here that don't frequent OT, I'm looking for some assistance.
DonorsChoose.org Project: PurdueBrad - Front Office Football Central |
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04-15-2009, 02:16 PM
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#1799 |
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Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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PB, are you still looking for donations? I wouldn't be able to untill the weekend but would like to.
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04-15-2009, 02:28 PM
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#1800 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
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I don't know who is right or wrong, but I've loved today's discussion about where to vote and how. After the last few days which have been a bit "slow", today has been fun to read (even if not really that many posts)
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