WW LXIV- The Wedding- GAME OVER GUESTS WIN

[claphamsa]

BK huh? im gonna need to look into that.......

[mauchow]

Clap is drunk, I assume?

[DaddyTorgo]

I debated this...but I think it's a good point in the game for it

I'm the Maid of Honor. I found out last night that Raiders Army is a wolf.
My viewing sequence looked like this.
D1: NTN
D2: CR
D3: Raiders Army

Consequently

VOTE RAIDERS ARMY

[mauchow]

I almost asked this earlier, if someone was able to get some good scans in we should discuss it and get rid of the next bad person and have the body guard protect.

Honestly though, I hope that you weren't protected tonight(last night) so we can get another scan in.

Awesome job though DT! Awesome.

Nothing on the other two though, I assume.

I will believe you for this.. hopefully you're not actually a wolf and screw us over for a day.. If you lied you'd die so really nothing to gain by telling us this, in my opinion.

Vote Raiders Army

Does everyone agree with this?

[ntndeacon]

Nicely done DT! I was wondering about him from the logic in his last post concerning Schmidty. It is not an unheard of move for a wolf to vote for another wolf on night one.

Vote Raiders Army

[mauchow]

Yeah, he might have ruined it now for the wolves to have a chance.

If Schmidty is indeed another wolf, jackpot and we have lots to work with for the rest of the game. Keep scanning and the bodyguard needs to protect him tonight...

[Chief Rum]

Wow, great job everyone! I guess I shoulda dogpiled on Pass after all.

I'm a little sketchy on Daddy Torgo's reveal right now. I am not going to follow it until we pass some more time today and see of anyone counters him. I haven't really gotten a bad vibe from RA this game, although I admit I haven't been around much in the daytime.

My work at my other job is done for this week, so I should be around at deadlines Thursday and Friday (well, may get in and get out quick Friday night, given it's Friday night).

[mauchow]

CR, I would completely agree with you but we really have nothing to lose by following him. If he's wrong, he's gone the next day and it would be completely ridiculous for him to be a good guy and lie about this. If he's a bad guy he's only hurting himself and in a sense is going to only help the wolves with killing two good people in the process of killing one of their own.

Not worth it for him to be lying as a wolf right now. He's what he says he is, IMO. I'm sticking with Raiders Army unless something absolutely crazy happens.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

CR, I would completely agree with you but we really have nothing to lose by following him. If he's wrong, he's gone the next day and it would be completely ridiculous for him to be a good guy and lie about this. If he's a bad guy he's only hurting himself and in a sense is going to only help the wolves with killing two good people in the process of killing one of their own.

Not worth it for him to be lying as a wolf right now. He's what he says he is, IMO. I'm sticking with Raiders Army unless something absolutely crazy happens.

I'm just being cautious, but I tend to agree with your thinking here. I don't like to just jump on a reveal, especially with so much time to deadline. Since I will be around tomorrow night, it seems prudent to me to wait and see what happens. If things are still looking strong tomorrow, you can count on my vote for RA.

[mauchow]

True that, and with that, I'm off to bed.

I'll be around in the morning and after 6pm tomorrow.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Arles

Yeah, Pass did about everything he could to save Mau - dissuading JeHeinz72, pulling the switcheroo on Ollie with him and an overall "rope a dope" strategy of deflecting away from mau. He's probably going to be my vote tomorrow.

An outside chance at another wolf is Schmidty, Pass seemed to deflate a lot of the interest in voting him off earlier as well.

What have you done to clear yourself? Just curious.

[Schmidty]

Dola.

I don't mind you putting me out there as a wolf since I haven't done anything to prove that I'm not. As a matter of fact, I haven't done much of anything, so the body of evidence on me is miniscule.

[claphamsa]

unvite mau
vite raiders navy

Either hes a wolf or we hatched the oretend maid!

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

What have you done to clear yourself? Just curious.

It was 3-2-2 when I voted for Pass yesterday and I did so explaining why I thought he was a wolf. If I *knew* he was a wolf, why make it 4-2-2 against him and essentially start the "pile on" that got him off?

Also, it makes sense for RA to be a wolf as he immediately unvoted Pass after I voted for him to try and stop the run. In the end, though, I would say there's not really anyone outside of DT who has a real strong case to be a villager.

[Arles]

I would also follow up by stating that after I brought up Schmidty being a potential wolf, RA came in and immediately tried to clear his name a few posts later by referencing the first day vote. If RA does turn out to be a wolf after he's voted off, this sequence won't look good either.

[jeheinz72]

Ok, everyone is going to want to read this. I'm highly confused. See, I'm the actual Maid of Honor, and let me tell you, I'm very good at this.

Night One - Barkeep - He's the Mother-in-law
Night Two - DT - It was returned to me that he's a Guest. So hence my confusion. Maybe he's the Drama Queen so he scans as a Guest
Night Three - Cheif Rum - He's the Ex-boyfriend

So yeah, you can imagine my surprise when I got in today to find someone revealed as my role, much less the one person I thought I had "cleared".

String me up as a liar as you want, at least if you do that you'll see I"m the Maid of Honor and you'll have a one-two hit-list for Day Four and Five.

Since I am admiteddly confused a bit as the one cleared person I have is the one fake-revealing, here's my proposal, everyone does one of two things.

1. You vote with me (my vote in the next post)
2. You vote FOR me. String me up. If I then die as the Seer, you'll at least know who to vote for next (BK and CR)

[jeheinz72]

Vote Barkeep

[jeheinz72]

Correction, CR is the Ex-Girlfriend, not sure why I typed Boyfriend. I'm sure some wolf will glom onto this oversight on my part and get my lynched. At least when it comes out I"m the Seer we'll know it was just a typo.

[claphamsa]

hmmmm, there is no fools roll..... so one of you has to be lying. that being said....... wow. need to think about this one!

[claphamsa]

so what would DT have fake revealing? if it was the end of the game and he wanted to push votes it might make sense. but now? and why would heinze fake reveal.....

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

so what would DT have fake revealing? if it was the end of the game and he wanted to push votes it might make sense. but now? and why would heinze fake reveal.....

Well the only thing that makes sense to me would be is if he's the Drama Queen. He knows who the wolves are, so it's entirely possible/probable that he's just sacrificing himself to an extent to give them more cracks at the kills. Obviously the nights have been some sort of struggle for the Wolves as they can't kill anyone.

So DT reveals today and gets RA lynched, and then we all turn on DT and lynch him only to find out he's just the Drama Queen and so we've effectively gotten nowhere now. LIke a diversionary/distraction tactic.

As far as my reveal, there is little reason for it to be fake. Since it's not. Why would I, as a wolf, fake-reveal to out myself? To save RA? That's somewhat silly, it'd just get the two of us lynched in pretty quick order.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Arles

I would also follow up by stating that after I brought up Schmidty being a potential wolf, RA came in and immediately tried to clear his name a few posts later by referencing the first day vote. If RA does turn out to be a wolf after he's voted off, this sequence won't look good either.

I can't control what other people do, so what can I say?

[DaddyTorgo]

bad lie jeheinz. trying to throw smoke on the fire hmm?

you must be the drama queen and you saw this as your way to help the wolves out and try to buy them some time since I outed RA.

[DaddyTorgo]

i gotta work today...i can't sit here in thread all-day, but i will try to check in between 1-2pm EST and then again after work i will be around at like 7pm EST.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

bad lie jeheinz. trying to throw smoke on the fire hmm?

you must be the drama queen and you saw this as your way to help the wolves out and try to buy them some time since I outed RA.

Nice try DT. Throw out some doubt and run...

[jeheinz72]

I'll add this, if people don't believe me, more of an imploration and warning than anything. If you all are dead-set on lynching RA today, which you shouldn't be, then DON'T DON'T DON'T lynch DT then tomorrow. That's exactly what DT wants you to do, since he counts as a villager for the wolves anyhow. Vote BK or CR, they're the actual wolves.

I'm posting this just so if people don't want to believe me today, which is fine (wrong -- but fine), we don't compound the mistake by going right into DT's "trap", costing us two days and surely costing us the chance at a major win (or any win at all)

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

I debated this...but I think it's a good point in the game for it

I'm the Maid of Honor. I found out last night that Raiders Army is a wolf.
My viewing sequence looked like this.
D1: NTN
D2: CR
D3: Raiders Army

Consequently

VOTE RAIDERS ARMY

Whoa! This is not true at all. If you look at my voting history, I was one of the votes that guaranteed Pass getting lynched last night. If the real Maid of Honor has viewed a wolf (not DT), then please come forward and clear this up. If you haven't viewed a wolf yet, then remain silent and I will take the hit today to ensure a lynch on DT tomorrow.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Whoa! This is not true at all. If you look at my voting history, I was one of the votes that guaranteed Pass getting lynched last night. If the real Maid of Honor has viewed a wolf (not DT), then please come forward and clear this up. If you haven't viewed a wolf yet, then remain silent and I will take the hit today to ensure a lynch on DT tomorrow.

Uh, I've found two (one of which DT is trying to slyly clear as well)

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Ok, everyone is going to want to read this. I'm highly confused. See, I'm the actual Maid of Honor, and let me tell you, I'm very good at this.

Night One - Barkeep - He's the Mother-in-law
Night Two - DT - It was returned to me that he's a Guest. So hence my confusion. Maybe he's the Drama Queen so he scans as a Guest
Night Three - Cheif Rum - He's the Ex-boyfriend

So yeah, you can imagine my surprise when I got in today to find someone revealed as my role, much less the one person I thought I had "cleared".

String me up as a liar as you want, at least if you do that you'll see I"m the Maid of Honor and you'll have a one-two hit-list for Day Four and Five.

Since I am admiteddly confused a bit as the one cleared person I have is the one fake-revealing, here's my proposal, everyone does one of two things.

1. You vote with me (my vote in the next post)
2. You vote FOR me. String me up. If I then die as the Seer, you'll at least know who to vote for next (BK and CR)

doh, too late. You shouldn't have come forward.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

doh, too late. You shouldn't have come forward.

Huh? I"m saying I've found us two wolves! Is that not clear from my post?

[Raiders Army]

Reading through the stuff that happened since I logged off last night. I rescind my previous statement that you shouldn't have come forward jeheinz. I think we're in good shape at this point.

Question for DT: if you are the seer, then why didn't you scan mauboy since you were pinging him after the first day's vote?

My death will mean nothing to the game overall, as I am an ordinary villager. I am willing to sacrifice myself to out DT. I think they were taking the chance that I was the bride or groom here. jeheinz brings up a good point in not voting for DT, as I think we can do a little better by hitting BK or Chief Rum.

At this point,

VOTE BARKEEP

[jeheinz72]

I know we can do better, unless there is some sort of unsaid mechanic about my scans being fake. Realistically, everyone with half a brain should be voting for BK.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

bad lie jeheinz. trying to throw smoke on the fire hmm?

you must be the drama queen and you saw this as your way to help the wolves out and try to buy them some time since I outed RA.

Why would another wolf come forward and try to save me if I'm a wolf? This play makes no sense whatsoever. We (the villagers) have a 10-3 advantage over them, so a wolf coming forward now would only make it a 9-1 advantage for the villagers (assuming jeheinz and I are wolves and you are a villager). That makes no sense at all to do this play at this stage in the game. If we were in endgame, then it would make sense but we're nowhere near there.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Why would another wolf come forward and try to save me if I'm a wolf? This play makes no sense whatsoever. We (the villagers) have a 10-3 advantage over them, so a wolf coming forward now would only make it a 9-1 advantage for the villagers (assuming jeheinz and I are wolves and you are a villager). That makes no sense at all to do this play at this stage in the game. If we were in endgame, then it would make sense but we're nowhere near there.

Prizzactly.

[jeheinz72]

Arles, Farrah, NTN? Any thoughts? I see you guys lurkin'

[ntndeacon]

sorry rushing at work will give thoughts a little later je.

[oliegirl]

I'm curious as to why Heinz and DT chose to scan the people you scanned...that information would help me try to figure out who is lying here.

[mauchow]

Wow. I was actually curious about this, I felt that Heinz was trying to lead us all to Barkeep a few days ago. This only confirms it for me.

Unvote RA
Vote Barkeep

[Arles]

Whoah, interesting twist on my first WW game. I'm not sure which is the seer, but I'm leaning towards DT. Jeheinz72's explanation makes some sense, but here's what I don't like about his story:

1. After the first night (and he supposedly knew BK was the Mother in Law), he came out and voted for Mau in post 187 at 11 AM. Now, if I got a message saying BK was a wolf the night before, I would do everything possible to start an early run on BK - at a minimum I would change my vote to him at some point.

2. While JH finally voted for BK after the 2nd night - it looks like more of a defensive vote as BK himself voted for JH in post 202. So, if I were JH, I might choose him as a "wolf" to eliminate someone who was suspicious of me.

3. JH stated that, as a seer, he basically nailed the three other wolves (outside of Pass) in his first 3 guesses (Barkeep, DT, CR). While possible, that doesn't seem likely.

4. JH seemed to know a heck of a lot about the DQ role in knowing that the DQ would show up as a guest - not a wolf. Now, after getting his post and re-reading the front page, that makes some sense. But, that seems like something that would be in the initial "DQ" role email from Lathum.

Now, if you look at DT, his first two choices were "non-wolves" NTN and CR. So, he would have been no better off until the third night - when he learned RA.

Also, I think I am beginning to understand the "why" for JeHeinz coming in and confusing things (as a sacrificial lamb). The last two nights, no one has been taken by the wolves - this means:

1. Wolves know who both the Bride or Groom are by nailing one two nights ago and the other last night. This is a scary scenerio.
2. Wolves know who either the Bride or Groom are by nailing one two nights ago. Then, somehow, the bride or groom protected each other last night or the wolves got greedy and went after someone else who was protected (BG?).
3. Wolves know who either the Bride or Groom are by nailing one two nights ago. Then, the BG protected that person the next night (bit of luck there as I'm guessing the BG wouldn't know for sure).

I'm thinking one of the above cases is in order and if that's the case, the next 2-3 nights could determine the game. So, if the wolves can confuse us today, we may wake up tomorrow and see the seer gone. Then, we might see two of the bride, groom and BG go in the next two nights. So, the wolves may want to sacrifice the DQ tonight (no biggie to them) and even if they have one wolf gone in later weeks, the game my be over for us.

For that reason, I'm going with DT being the seer and RA the wolf. I think JeHeinz is the DQ and 2 remaining wolves are probably part of Schmidty, mau, clap and path. Although, I'm not as confident with that list (Farrah and ollie could also be wolves given what we know).

[mauchow]

I'll be sticking on Heinz's side on this one. If we are wrong with any direction we go, we'll have some grounds to go on. Regardless of what happens, us good guys will have plenty of hope and will be on a nice path to win.

I have to work til 6:00 tonight but I will be checking back now and again to see what else may have unfolded.

[mauchow]

Wow, Arles. In Depth Analysis man.

I see what you're saying and that could be disastrous for us if the Bride and Groom are both dead.

The bodyguard has to protect one of these two so called seers and they should choose at their own discretion. I'll try to think of something for the BG but I know it'll be a tough decision, regardless.

Also, the Bride and Groom could be dead and we wouldn't know it? Is that true? I have to read the front page again, too now.

[Arles]

Actually, my math is off. There's only 4 total wolves including the DQ (who seems to count as a guest). So, our options are (outside of pass being the ex-boyfriend):

Believe DT:
RA is one wolf
JeHe is the DQ
Schmidty/mau/clap/path is the other wolf

Believe JeHe:
Barkeep and CR are the wolves
DT is the DQ

JeHe's case is much too clean for this stage, and I'm leaning towards DT.

[mauchow]

And no ties tonight, people. I'll make sure I change my vote at the last minute to break any tie that might be there. We need someone to leave the party tonight if we're gonna find out information that we could use.

Anyhow, I'm f'real leaving now. Interesting though, Arles. I'll think it over whil at work. I do agree that it does sound a bit clean when you look at it closely.

[Barkeep49]

I purposefully avoided posting right after I saw JH's "reveal" because I was hoping someone else would see the rediculousness of it.

"Look at me! I found both the wolves! Believe me and we win". If you're going to lie, go big I suppose. DT came first and did it the standard way "I'm the seer. I found a wolf. Here he is". Wolf for seer? Good trade right there.

Vote RA

[oliegirl]

A lot to think about today...thanks for the write up Arlie - that is awesome! I'm learning toward DT being the seer right now, a lot of things you said about JE make sense...but I'm reserving final judgement until we (hopefully) hear back from the 2 "seers".

[Arles]

Obviously, I'm voting RA and hoping DT didn't pull a fast one on me.

[jeheinz72]

Here is my thinking on each point. I'll admit, this is my first time as a Seer, but it was the best thought process I could come up with.

Originally Posted by Arles

Whoah, interesting twist on my first WW game. I'm not sure which is the seer, but I'm leaning towards DT. Jeheinz72's explanation makes some sense, but here's what I don't like about his story:

1. After the first night (and he supposedly knew BK was the Mother in Law), he came out and voted for Mau in post 187 at 11 AM. Now, if I got a message saying BK was a wolf the night before, I would do everything possible to start an early run on BK - at a minimum I would change my vote to him at some point.

Well, I wanted to, but didn't want to overstate my hand for 2 reasons

- It was early and it was just 1 of what would be 3 or 4 wolves. My role is vital to our team, just nabbing one didn't seem like enough. I also didn't want to be the night kill, so I had to walk a fine line there.

Also, with it being early, I wanted to see who started agreeing/disagreeing with me so we could get the successive vote. Looking back now, you can see both Pass and BK coming after me a bit on Day Two, this is the tie-in I was looking for. My original Night 3 order was to scan Pass actually (but I had it set conditionally that if he was dead to scan CR)

Originally Posted by Arles

2. While JH finally voted for BK after the 2nd night - it looks like more of a defensive vote as BK himself voted for JH in post 202. So, if I were JH, I might choose him as a "wolf" to eliminate someone who was suspicious of me.

Yeah, it's inconvenient that he voted for me, but on Day 3 I had to get it out there, in case I was a night kill, that BK was who to look at once it was revealed I was a Seer. I figured if I die on NIght 3, you guys see "Hey he was the Seer, let's see who he was fingering". So On Day 3 I "upped" the veracity for which I came after BK.

Originally Posted by Arles

3. JH stated that, as a seer, he basically nailed the three other wolves (outside of Pass) in his first 3 guesses (Barkeep, DT, CR). While possible, that doesn't seem likely.

Trust me, no one is more surprised by my luck than me. Here's my thinking on why I scanned who I did

Night 1 - BK. I knew he'd be active. I knew he'd post his thoughts. So I picked him as someone I knew I wanted to have the info of "Is he on my side or not"

Night 2 - DT. Since lots of talk was centering on him. I wanted to know "Were the people discussing DT (anti or pro) likely on my side or against me"

Night 3 - CR. Like I said, my inital thought was Pass (making waves, lots of posts) but he got lynched so it went to my backup, CR. I picked him since he had some talk on him (by BK too IIRC) and I knew that our two schedules don't typically line up to where I could get him on and grill him with questions.

Am I shocked it worked out well, yes. FTR, DT isn't actually a wolf. He's the drama queen likely.

Originally Posted by Arles

4. JH seemed to know a heck of a lot about the DQ role in knowing that the DQ would show up as a guest - not a wolf. Now, after getting his post and re-reading the front page, that makes some sense. But, that seems like something that would be in the initial "DQ" role email from Lathum.

I'm admiteddly theorizing on the fact that DT is the Drama Queen. He scanned to me as a Guest. The only rationale I could think on why he'd fake reveal but scan as a Guest is the Drama Queen role. I have no other information on that role other than the post on Page 1.

Originally Posted by Arles

Now, if you look at DT, his first two choices were "non-wolves" NTN and CR. So, he would have been no better off until the third night - when he learned RA.

Also, I think I am beginning to understand the "why" for JeHeinz coming in and confusing things (as a sacrificial lamb). The last two nights, no one has been taken by the wolves - this means:

1. Wolves know who both the Bride or Groom are by nailing one two nights ago and the other last night. This is a scary scenerio.
2. Wolves know who either the Bride or Groom are by nailing one two nights ago. Then, somehow, the bride or groom protected each other last night or the wolves got greedy and went after someone else who was protected (BG?).
3. Wolves know who either the Bride or Groom are by nailing one two nights ago. Then, the BG protected that person the next night (bit of luck there as I'm guessing the BG wouldn't know for sure).

I'm thinking one of the above cases is in order and if that's the case, the next 2-3 nights could determine the game. So, if the wolves can confuse us today, we may wake up tomorrow and see the seer gone. Then, we might see two of the bride, groom and BG go in the next two nights. So, the wolves may want to sacrifice the DQ tonight (no biggie to them) and even if they have one wolf gone in later weeks, the game my be over for us.

For that reason, I'm going with DT being the seer and RA the wolf. I think JeHeinz is the DQ and 2 remaining wolves are probably part of Schmidty, mau, clap and path. Although, I'm not as confident with that list (Farrah and ollie could also be wolves given what we know).

I don't know about the whole bride/groom issue. I had assumed that they hit the Groom Night 2 and that I'd walk in today to find the Groom killed off. Now it looks like at least once, our BG made a protection which rocks. Good job BG, but stay quiet. No need to reveal AT ALL.

Arles, if you want to stay and vote RA today, that's fine. It's wrong, but I just urge you that tomorrow when you come in and read the events that

A) RA was a guest
B) I'm likely dead in the night kill.

You only consider votes for CR and BK (since DT is the drama queen and would actually HURT our ratio if lynched).

I urge you though to see the light today that my outing myself as a wolf to counter DT would be a horrific blunder on my part, as it'd basically be handing the guests a 2nd wolf (with no additional benefit to the wolves themselves). It would make no sense for me to make such a play in that regard.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

A lot to think about today...thanks for the write up Arlie - that is awesome! I'm learning toward DT being the seer right now, a lot of things you said about JE make sense...but I'm reserving final judgement until we (hopefully) hear back from the 2 "seers".

Olie, what can I do to convince you. You need to believe me. Can I at least get your confirmation that you're on board with the plan that once DT is outed as a liar you'll vote CR or BK?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I purposefully avoided posting right after I saw JH's "reveal" because I was hoping someone else would see the rediculousness of it.

"Look at me! I found both the wolves! Believe me and we win". If you're going to lie, go big I suppose. DT came first and did it the standard way "I'm the seer. I found a wolf. Here he is". Wolf for seer? Good trade right there.

Vote RA

Can't say I'm surprised by this.

I'll be the first to admit, I'm absolutely SHOCKED at my luck in the fact that the first 4 names I even considered (BK, CR, DT, Pass) all happened to be "working" for the other team in one fashion. After this game it'll go down as the greatest stroke of seer luck (and *some* skill, I think) to ever hit FOFC Werewolf.

Now it's just my job to prove/convince the regular guests to believe me so we at least get a win out of it.

[jeheinz72]

Oh, just an FYI folks, I leave for the day at 6 PM EST (still 6 hours from now), so if you have questions for me, don't wait until it's too late!