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Old 09-06-2018, 09:08 PM   #101
BishopMVP
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MIJB#19 View Post
You missed post #11, which currently has 3 leading bids.

Thanks, fixed.
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Old 09-06-2018, 09:34 PM   #102
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Old 09-06-2018, 11:29 PM   #103
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OAKLAND OVER 6
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Old 09-06-2018, 11:39 PM   #104
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LA Rams over 8.5
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Old 09-06-2018, 11:44 PM   #105
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Originally Posted by GoldenCrest Games View Post
I think this would be a good starting point for next season.

I actually wonder if it's not worth just starting with the Vegas lines for each team, maybe +/- 3 in each direction. With the rule about having to space out your bids (which I totally agree with) it feels like there's a ton of tedious up bidding that doesn't really need to be there.
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Old 09-07-2018, 12:02 AM   #106
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DENVER UNDER 9
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Old 09-07-2018, 01:28 AM   #107
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CAROLINA OVER 6
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Old 09-07-2018, 01:55 AM   #108
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SEATTLE OVER 6.5
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Old 09-07-2018, 09:03 AM   #109
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SEATTLE UNDER 10.5
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Old 09-07-2018, 10:52 AM   #110
MIJB#19
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Old 09-07-2018, 11:08 AM   #111
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Old 09-07-2018, 11:10 AM   #112
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Old 09-07-2018, 11:55 AM   #113
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Old 09-07-2018, 12:08 PM   #114
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Originally Posted by NobodyHere View Post
WASHINGTON UNDER 15

Quote:
Originally Posted by albionmoonlight View Post
WASHINGTON UNDER 10.5

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INDIANAPOLIS UNDER 13

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WASHINGTON UNDER 10

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INDIANAPOLIS UNDER 9.5

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CINCINNATI OVER 5.0

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PHILADELPHIA OVER 8.5

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JACKSONVILLE UNDER 12.5

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JACKSONVILLE UNDER NA

EDIT: Missed a lower under

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CLEVELAND under 10.5

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Originally Posted by MIJB#19 View Post
LA Rams over 4.5

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CAROLINA OVER 4.5

I just couldn't take the over 3.5 on Buffalo.

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Jacksonville Jaguars over 8

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Pittsburgh over 7




By my quick gloss through looks like all of these "bids" didnt meet the 10 minute rule. Are they thrown out or?...
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Old 09-07-2018, 12:54 PM   #115
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Old 09-07-2018, 01:24 PM   #116
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Originally Posted by CU Tiger View Post
By my quick gloss through looks like all of these "bids" didnt meet the 10 minute rule. Are they thrown out or?...

I have rephrased the "you" references in the rules. The 10 minute rule applies to a bidder, not to a team/side. It's not 10 minutes hands off for anyone to outbid on DETROIT UNDER, it's 10 minutes hands off for me after I put in that bid.

Hope that is more clear now.
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Old 09-07-2018, 02:38 PM   #117
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Old 09-07-2018, 03:01 PM   #118
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Old 09-07-2018, 04:12 PM   #119
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Didn't realize someone else must have posted very shortly before me.

Edited to bold

Last edited by Racer : 09-07-2018 at 04:13 PM.
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Old 09-07-2018, 04:23 PM   #120
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Old 09-07-2018, 05:21 PM   #121
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On phone, if I can't edit this, no problem. Originally accidentally posted under 9.5.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

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Old 09-07-2018, 08:53 PM   #122
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NEW ORLEANS UNDER 12.5

Should be updated through this post now - NFL O/U Game 2018 - Google Sheets
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Old 09-07-2018, 10:38 PM   #123
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Old 09-08-2018, 12:15 AM   #124
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Old 09-08-2018, 06:07 AM   #125
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Old 09-08-2018, 07:32 AM   #126
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Old 09-08-2018, 07:47 AM   #127
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Old 09-08-2018, 08:28 AM   #128
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Old 09-08-2018, 10:54 AM   #129
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Old 09-08-2018, 12:38 PM   #130
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Last edited by QuikSand : 09-08-2018 at 12:38 PM.
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Old 09-08-2018, 05:02 PM   #131
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It might be a little early to decide whether this worked. But I do think that an over/under game won't suffer the problem of a bunch of people trying to bid at the last minute.

Looking at the list Bishop made shows that a lot of teams have reached their natural points, and there won't be much value in bidding late unless you have strong feelings about them.

In fact, if we run this in the future, I might suggest putting timing bid limits on from the beginning. If you assume an active/knowledgeable enough pool of competitors, there won't be any NEW ENGLAND OVER 7.5 values to be had by the end. So if I think that New England is going to go 12-4, my strategy, I think, is to come in early and bid them at OVER 11.5 and lock that in and force anyone else to go over 12 to make money.
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Old 09-08-2018, 05:21 PM   #132
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Old 09-09-2018, 08:24 AM   #133
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Old 09-09-2018, 10:59 AM   #134
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Old 09-09-2018, 11:09 AM   #135
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Old 09-09-2018, 11:46 AM   #136
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Edit: This appears to be invalid because it was less than an hour before kickoff. Which is a bummer.

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Old 09-09-2018, 08:01 PM   #137
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Originally Posted by albionmoonlight View Post
It might be a little early to decide whether this worked. But I do think that an over/under game won't suffer the problem of a bunch of people trying to bid at the last minute.

Looking at the list Bishop made shows that a lot of teams have reached their natural points, and there won't be much value in bidding late unless you have strong feelings about them.

In fact, if we run this in the future, I might suggest putting timing bid limits on from the beginning. If you assume an active/knowledgeable enough pool of competitors, there won't be any NEW ENGLAND OVER 7.5 values to be had by the end. So if I think that New England is going to go 12-4, my strategy, I think, is to come in early and bid them at OVER 11.5 and lock that in and force anyone else to go over 12 to make money.
I'm intrigued by the idea, but I think it should be at least 2 weeks in advance, and start with a +/- 3/4 from the Vegas lines. With the time constraints & 64 options I was never debating if I thought a specific line was worth bidding on, I just looked for a different one that was well off the Vegas O/U.
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Old 11-29-2018, 05:20 PM   #138
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Week 12 update of picks
teamWfofc overoverfofc underunder
Arizona2albionmoonlight3.5Ryche7.5
Atlanta4Vince, Pt. II8.5BishopMVP9.5
Baltimore6QuikSand7.5albionmoonlight10
Buffalo4QuikSand4stevew5.5
Carolina6QuikSand6.5bhlloy9.5
Chicago8NobodyHere4.5Ryche10.5
Cincinnati5BishopMVP5BishopMVP9
Cleveland4.5stevew5GoldenCrest Games10.5
Dallas6GoldenCrest Games6.5albionmoonlight6.5
Denver5revrew7BishopMVP9
Detroit4QuikSand6jbergey229
Green Bay4.5Ryche8kingfc2211
Houston8Ryche7.5
Indianapolis6NobodyHere6albionmoonlight8.5
Jacksonville3Racer8GoldenCrest Games9.5
Kansas City9kingfc228Sublime 210.5
LA Chargers8QuikSand8AnalBumCover9
LA Rams10QuikSand9.5AnalBumCover10
Miami5BishopMVP4.5jbergey228.5
Minnesota6.5GoldenCrest Games9.5QuikSand11
New England8BishopMVP10.5GoldenCrest Games11.5
New Orleans10albionmoonlight10BishopMVP12.5
NY Giants3albionmoonlight8.5BishopMVP8
NY Jets3Ryche4kingfc227
Oakland2BishopMVP6kingfc227
Philadelphia5BishopMVP9.5QuikSand11.5
Pittsburgh7.5MIJB#197stevew9.5
San Francisco2kingfc229.5Vince, Pt. II9.5
Seattle6BishopMVP6.5kingfc229
Tampa Bay4GoldenCrest Games3.5albionmoonlight6
Tennessee5BishopMVP5.5stevew9
Washington6QuikSand5.5chesapeake9.5


Week 12 update of scores
rkfofc name#scoreavg
1GoldenCrest Games613021.7
2kingfc22612020
3BishopMVP12957.9
4jbergey2228542.5
5QuikSand9808.9
6stevew47017.5
7Ryche5408
8bhlloy13535
8chesapeake13535
8NobodyHere23517.5
11Vince, Pt. II23015
12albionmoonlight7202.9
13Sublime 211515
14AnalBumCover2105
15MIJB#19155
16revrew1-20-20
17Racer1-50-50
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Last edited by MIJB#19 : 11-29-2018 at 05:34 PM.
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Old 11-29-2018, 05:51 PM   #139
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Projected picks and standings if teams continue their win percentage:
teamWfofc overoverfofc underunder
Arizona3albionmoonlight3.5Ryche7.5
Atlanta6Vince, Pt. II8.5BishopMVP9.5
Baltimore9QuikSand7.5albionmoonlight10
Buffalo6QuikSand4stevew5.5
Carolina9QuikSand6.5bhlloy9.5
Chicago12NobodyHere4.5Ryche10.5
Cincinnati7BishopMVP5BishopMVP9
Cleveland6.5stevew5GoldenCrest Games10.5
Dallas9GoldenCrest Games6.5albionmoonlight6.5
Denver7revrew7BishopMVP9
Detroit6QuikSand6jbergey229
Green Bay6.5Ryche8kingfc2211
Houston12Ryche7.5
Indianapolis9NobodyHere6albionmoonlight8.5
Jacksonville4Racer8GoldenCrest Games9.5
Kansas City13kingfc228Sublime 210.5
LA Chargers12QuikSand8AnalBumCover9
LA Rams14QuikSand9.5AnalBumCover10
Miami7BishopMVP4.5jbergey228.5
Minnesota9.5GoldenCrest Games9.5QuikSand11
New England12BishopMVP10.5GoldenCrest Games11.5
New Orleans14albionmoonlight10BishopMVP12.5
NY Giants4albionmoonlight8.5BishopMVP8
NY Jets4Ryche4kingfc227
Oakland3BishopMVP6kingfc227
Philadelphia7BishopMVP9.5QuikSand11.5
Pittsburgh10.5MIJB#197stevew9.5
San Francisco3kingfc229.5Vince, Pt. II9.5
Seattle9BishopMVP6.5kingfc229
Tampa Bay6GoldenCrest Games3.5albionmoonlight6
Tennessee7BishopMVP5.5stevew9
Washington9QuikSand5.5chesapeake9.5


rkfofc name#scoreavg
1QuikSand924026.7
2BishopMVP1214512.1
3GoldenCrest Games614023.3
4NobodyHere210552.5
5kingfc22610016.7
6Ryche56012
7jbergey2224522.5
8Vince, Pt. II24020
9MIJB#1913535
10stevew4205
11bhlloy155
11chesapeake155
13revrew100
14Sublime 21-25-25
15albionmoonlight7-30-4.3
16Racer1-40-40
17AnalBumCover2-70-35
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Old 12-05-2018, 01:59 PM   #140
MIJB#19
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Week 13 update of picks
teamWfofc overoverfofc underunder
Arizona3albionmoonlight3.5Ryche7.5
Atlanta4Vince, Pt. II8.5BishopMVP9.5
Baltimore7QuikSand7.5albionmoonlight10
Buffalo4QuikSand4stevew5.5
Carolina6QuikSand6.5bhlloy9.5
Chicago8NobodyHere4.5Ryche10.5
Cincinnati5BishopMVP5BishopMVP9
Cleveland4.5stevew5GoldenCrest Games10.5
Dallas7GoldenCrest Games6.5albionmoonlight6.5
Denver6revrew7BishopMVP9
Detroit4QuikSand6jbergey229
Green Bay4.5Ryche8kingfc2211
Houston9Ryche7.5
Indianapolis6NobodyHere6albionmoonlight8.5
Jacksonville4Racer8GoldenCrest Games9.5
Kansas City10kingfc228Sublime 210.5
LA Chargers9QuikSand8AnalBumCover9
LA Rams11QuikSand9.5AnalBumCover10
Miami6BishopMVP4.5jbergey228.5
Minnesota6.5GoldenCrest Games9.5QuikSand11
New England9BishopMVP10.5GoldenCrest Games11.5
New Orleans10albionmoonlight10BishopMVP12.5
NY Giants4albionmoonlight8.5BishopMVP8
NY Jets3Ryche4kingfc227
Oakland2BishopMVP6kingfc227
Philadelphia6BishopMVP9.5QuikSand11.5
Pittsburgh7.5MIJB#197stevew9.5
San Francisco2kingfc229.5Vince, Pt. II9.5
Seattle7BishopMVP6.5kingfc229
Tampa Bay5GoldenCrest Games3.5albionmoonlight6
Tennessee6BishopMVP5.5stevew9
Washington6QuikSand5.5chesapeake9.5


Week 13 update of scores
rkfofc name#scoreavg
1GoldenCrest Games613021.7
2BishopMVP1212510.4
3kingfc22612020
4QuikSand910011.1
5jbergey2227537.5
6stevew46015
7Ryche5408
8bhlloy13535
8chesapeake13535
8NobodyHere23517.5
11Vince, Pt. II23015
12albionmoonlight7101.4
13MIJB#19155
13Sublime 2155
15AnalBumCover2-10-5
15revrew1-10-10
17Racer1-40-40


Week 17 projected* picks
teamWfofc overoverfofc underunder
Arizona4albionmoonlight3.5Ryche7.5
Atlanta5Vince, Pt. II8.5BishopMVP9.5
Baltimore9QuikSand7.5albionmoonlight10
Buffalo5QuikSand4stevew5.5
Carolina8QuikSand6.5bhlloy9.5
Chicago11NobodyHere4.5Ryche10.5
Cincinnati7BishopMVP5BishopMVP9
Cleveland6.5stevew5GoldenCrest Games10.5
Dallas9GoldenCrest Games6.5albionmoonlight6.5
Denver8revrew7BishopMVP9
Detroit5QuikSand6jbergey229
Green Bay6.5Ryche8kingfc2211
Houston12Ryche7.5
Indianapolis8NobodyHere6albionmoonlight8.5
Jacksonville5Racer8GoldenCrest Games9.5
Kansas City13kingfc228Sublime 210.5
LA Chargers12QuikSand8AnalBumCover9
LA Rams15QuikSand9.5AnalBumCover10
Miami8BishopMVP4.5jbergey228.5
Minnesota8.5GoldenCrest Games9.5QuikSand11
New England12BishopMVP10.5GoldenCrest Games11.5
New Orleans13albionmoonlight10BishopMVP12.5
NY Giants5albionmoonlight8.5BishopMVP8
NY Jets4Ryche4kingfc227
Oakland3BishopMVP6kingfc227
Philadelphia8BishopMVP9.5QuikSand11.5
Pittsburgh10.5MIJB#197stevew9.5
San Francisco3kingfc229.5Vince, Pt. II9.5
Seattle9BishopMVP6.5kingfc229
Tampa Bay7GoldenCrest Games3.5albionmoonlight6
Tennessee8BishopMVP5.5stevew9
Washington8QuikSand5.5chesapeake9.5
* basically I went with multiplying by 16 and deviding by 12, then rounding to whole numbers, except for the 4 teams with ties.

Week 17 projected scores
rkfofc name#scoreavg
1QuikSand921023.3
2BishopMVP1217514.6
3GoldenCrest Games613021.7
4kingfc22610016.7
5NobodyHere28542.5
6Ryche56012
7jbergey2224522.5
8MIJB#1913535
9Vince, Pt. II23015
10stevew4205
11bhlloy11515
11chesapeake11515
13revrew11010
14albionmoonlight7-20-2.9
15Sublime 21-25-25
16Racer1-30-30
17AnalBumCover2-80-40
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Old 12-05-2018, 02:04 PM   #141
albionmoonlight
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I'm going to lose so much real life money when sports gambling becomes legal and easy where I live. Just scads and scads of money. I'm so bad at this.
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Old 12-05-2018, 02:55 PM   #142
thesloppy
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Originally Posted by albionmoonlight View Post
I'm going to lose so much real life money when sports gambling becomes legal and easy where I live. Just scads and scads of money. I'm so bad at this.

Speaking of, has anybody heard any hint of when/what form football gambling will take in their localities? Oregon is so hooked into gambling as income, and they even previously had state lottery-run NFL based gambling years ago, so I practically expected they'd be up and running by the time the season started, but I haven't really heard much of a peep about it.
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Old 12-05-2018, 05:39 PM   #143
albionmoonlight
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Speaking of, has anybody heard any hint of when/what form football gambling will take in their localities? Oregon is so hooked into gambling as income, and they even previously had state lottery-run NFL based gambling years ago, so I practically expected they'd be up and running by the time the season started, but I haven't really heard much of a peep about it.

The Panther's new owner is young and forward thinking, so he might take the reins on pushing it forward in NC.

The general assembly here is a bunch of troglodytes, so if the owner does not take it over, I will assume that they will handle it in the most ass-backwards and un-fun way possible.
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Old 12-05-2018, 05:51 PM   #144
thesloppy
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I will assume that they will handle it in the most ass-backwards and un-fun way possible.

NFL pull-tabs?
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Old 12-11-2018, 03:40 PM   #145
MIJB#19
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Week 14 update of picks
teamWfofc overoverfofc underunder
Arizona3albionmoonlight3.5Ryche7.5
Atlanta4Vince, Pt. II8.5BishopMVP9.5
Baltimore7QuikSand7.5albionmoonlight10
Buffalo4QuikSand4stevew5.5
Carolina6QuikSand6.5bhlloy9.5
Chicago9NobodyHere4.5Ryche10.5
Cincinnati5BishopMVP5BishopMVP9
Cleveland5.5stevew5GoldenCrest Games10.5
Dallas8GoldenCrest Games6.5albionmoonlight6.5
Denver6revrew7BishopMVP9
Detroit5QuikSand6jbergey229
Green Bay5.5Ryche8kingfc2211
Houston9Ryche7.5
Indianapolis7NobodyHere6albionmoonlight8.5
Jacksonville4Racer8GoldenCrest Games9.5
Kansas City11kingfc228Sublime 210.5
LA Chargers10QuikSand8AnalBumCover9
LA Rams11QuikSand9.5AnalBumCover10
Miami7BishopMVP4.5jbergey228.5
Minnesota6.5GoldenCrest Games9.5QuikSand11
New England9BishopMVP10.5GoldenCrest Games11.5
New Orleans11albionmoonlight10BishopMVP12.5
NY Giants5albionmoonlight8.5BishopMVP8
NY Jets4Ryche4kingfc227
Oakland3BishopMVP6kingfc227
Philadelphia6BishopMVP9.5QuikSand11.5
Pittsburgh7.5MIJB#197stevew9.5
San Francisco3kingfc229.5Vince, Pt. II9.5
Seattle8BishopMVP6.5kingfc229
Tampa Bay5GoldenCrest Games3.5albionmoonlight6
Tennessee7BishopMVP5.5stevew9
Washington6QuikSand5.5chesapeake9.5


Week 14 update of scores
rkfofc name#scoreavg
1BishopMVP1214512.1
2GoldenCrest Games613021.7
3QuikSand912013.3
4kingfc22610016.7
5stevew46015
6jbergey2225527.5
6NobodyHere25527.5
8Ryche55010
9bhlloy13535
9chesapeake13535
11Vince, Pt. II22010
12albionmoonlight7101.4
13MIJB#19155
14Sublime 21-5-5
15revrew1-10-10
16AnalBumCover2-20-10
17Racer1-40-40



Week 17 projected* records and picks
teamWfofc overoverfofc underunder
Arizona3albionmoonlight3.5Ryche7.5
Atlanta5Vince, Pt. II8.5BishopMVP9.5
Baltimore9QuikSand7.5albionmoonlight10
Buffalo5QuikSand4stevew5.5
Carolina7QuikSand6.5bhlloy9.5
Chicago12NobodyHere4.5Ryche10.5
Cincinnati5BishopMVP5BishopMVP9
Cleveland6.5stevew5GoldenCrest Games10.5
Dallas10GoldenCrest Games6.5albionmoonlight6.5
Denver8revrew7BishopMVP9
Detroit6QuikSand6jbergey229
Green Bay6.5Ryche8kingfc2211
Houston12Ryche7.5
Indianapolis9NobodyHere6albionmoonlight8.5
Jacksonville5Racer8GoldenCrest Games9.5
Kansas City14kingfc228Sublime 210.5
LA Chargers12QuikSand8AnalBumCover9
LA Rams14QuikSand9.5AnalBumCover10
Miami9BishopMVP4.5jbergey228.5
Minnesota7.5GoldenCrest Games9.5QuikSand11
New England11BishopMVP10.5GoldenCrest Games11.5
New Orleans14albionmoonlight10BishopMVP12.5
NY Giants6albionmoonlight8.5BishopMVP8
NY Jets5Ryche4kingfc227
Oakland4BishopMVP6kingfc227
Philadelphia6BishopMVP9.5QuikSand11.5
Pittsburgh9.5MIJB#197stevew9.5
San Francisco3kingfc229.5Vince, Pt. II9.5
Seattle10BishopMVP6.5kingfc229
Tampa Bay6GoldenCrest Games3.5albionmoonlight6
Tennessee9BishopMVP5.5stevew9
Washington7QuikSand5.5chesapeake9.5

* mostly went with better record wins, except when the home team is at most 2 wins behind road team, then went with the home team.

Week 17 projected scores
rkfofc name#scoreavg
1QuikSand922024.4
2BishopMVP1216513.8
3GoldenCrest Games613021.7
4NobodyHere210552.5
5kingfc2268013.3
6Ryche57014
7Vince, Pt. II23015
8jbergey2222512.5
8bhlloy12525
8chesapeake12525
8MIJB#1912525
12stevew4205
13revrew11010
14albionmoonlight7-20-2.9
15Racer1-30-30
16Sublime 21-35-35
17AnalBumCover2-70-35
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Old 12-12-2018, 08:12 AM   #146
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How is a tie calculated. As a half win or as nothing?
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Old 12-12-2018, 09:17 AM   #147
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Old 12-14-2018, 07:41 PM   #148
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I was thinking of some other bets that would easily be able to be done. Division total wins. Conference over under wins. You could also do things like rushing touchdown leader total touchdowns, etc.
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Old 12-15-2018, 04:48 AM   #149
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Originally Posted by stevew View Post
How is a tie calculated. As a half win or as nothing?
I went with how the NFL applies it: 0.5 win.
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Old 12-15-2018, 02:23 PM   #150
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Originally Posted by stevew View Post
I was thinking of some other bets that would easily be able to be done. Division total wins. Conference over under wins. You could also do things like rushing touchdown leader total touchdowns, etc.

I think a whole wagering universe could be built around a market, sort of like PredictIt. Who will win the rushing title... each share pays $1.00. Buy and sell at market price all season, and then the victor pays off at the end of the season.

Either that, or a game where defined events trigger "dividends" of some sort. Like every time a guy accumulates 1,000 yards or 10 TD for the season... along with season-ending titles, all trigger a payback to the owner of each share of that guy. So, you would want to own shares of a guy like S Barkley right now (and beyond) on the promise that he'd rack up ongoing series of these payoffs... for each season where he tallies one or more of the dividend points. And a guy like, say, Tom Brady would probably be in decline as his likelihood of being an MVP or a 50TD guy or whatever any longer is falling.
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