Can somebody explain what happened to my player?!

Rumplebeanskin · 04-16-2018, 10:02 AM

I don't know if there is an explanation for this or if it's a bug? I've just played preseason week 2, and I believe that means an updated set of ratings are available for players from the league scout?

My LT just got totally destroyed, I have no idea what happened!

He's become a complete hack?!

His volatility is pretty low as well, I don't really understand what has happened here

Before that game, I had him as a 20/48 player on my team's roster page. Far from great, but still, I'm better than him now! Haha! The league scout has him as a 2/17 player, and my scout has him as a 3/10 player.

Just dug out the draft spreadsheet to look up his combines. He was as follows:

Dash - 5.11
Sole - 34
Strength - 34
Agility - 7.58
Broad - 98

Not elite, but he looked good from my limited knowledge and was 18% developed. I even traded up from 32nd in round 2 in order to pick him.

Is it as simple as him COMPLETELY busting instantly? Or is this something that could/may/will recover and right itself? It is what it is, and I'm all for variety to keep the game realistic and interesting, but I just wondered if that was the explanation here.

Thanks!

Pyser · 04-16-2018, 12:46 PM

bust. unlucky dice roll.

Rumplebeanskin · 04-16-2018, 02:05 PM

Fair enough. Just seemed like a massive cliff of a drop off that's all.

I could understand progressive decrease, but that's like, sharp blow to the head, forget who your parents are type skill loss!

Ah well, time to find a plan B then!

Rumplebeanskin · 04-16-2018, 02:15 PM

Apologies, forgot to ask.

Is there any way he recovers from this? Or shall I just cut him now?

corbes · 04-16-2018, 02:19 PM

Imagine that he woke up drunk on the side of the road with a strange handgun in the passenger seat and some blood on his shirt, smile at the mystery of it all, and then cut him.

Sharkn20 · 04-16-2018, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rumplebeanskin

Apologies, forgot to ask.

Is there any way he recovers from this? Or shall I just cut him now?

https://as.com/masdeporte/2018/02/13...95_159624.html

http://www.12up.com/posts/6019090-ry...oided-chargers

JaMarcus Russell arrested | Off the Record (OTR)

Just some real life examples

Ushikawa · 04-16-2018, 05:35 PM

The first Ex2 Sim is really just revealing who they are. The bars and eating at TC are simply a reflection of what you saw predraft. Lots of people get confused by this. It happens to everyone but having good scouting in your HC and relevant coordinators can minimize the frequency.

bdubbs · 04-16-2018, 07:27 PM

He's probably not going to recover, there's a lot of rookie busts out there. I just had a 3rd round DE go -7/-21 on me in TC2 last season. At the same time though I had a WR go something like +1/+10.

You can see ratings change quite a bit after the reveal stage during a player's first 4 years. From my experience it seems like an individual player is only going to make one big jump up or down during that time span though. After that you're probably not going to see any big moves up or down until they start declining from age. Unless there's a serious injury

Rumplebeanskin · 04-17-2018, 02:36 AM

Thanks for the input guys. I'll get him cut then

Squirrel · 04-17-2018, 03:34 AM

Yep cut dat ass

But always advisable to wait until after pre-season 2 to do it

MIJB#19 · 04-17-2018, 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rumplebeanskin

Is it as simple as him COMPLETELY busting instantly? Or is this something that could/may/will recover and right itself? It is what it is, and I'm all for variety to keep the game realistic and interesting, but I just wondered if that was the explanation here.

Most likely, it was that: a random change of ratings, based on the volatility roll and not a chance based on new insights from your staff after seeing more action from said player.. Given that his volatility is 20, the odds of him getting a similar big boost up or bump down are marginal. It can happen, but would be like hitting the jackpot.

Rumplebeanskin · 05-04-2018, 03:48 AM

Thanks to all that contributed when I originally posted this thread, much appreciated.

I have a similar question, but different circumstance and player.

Moving into the final year of his rookie contract, Devin Funchess' stats have suddenly taken a dive. On the plus side, his contract demands have come down from what they were last season, but I'm still wondering if it's a better bet to trade him. Buffalo want him, which with a mirror to real life, made me chuckle.

Is it possible that this slide corrects and he moves back towards being a mid 50's guy? If that happened, I'd have him on a great contract with the amount he currently wants.

Is is likely that this slide continues or he stays where he is now? In which case I'd be wiser to move him.

I understand what I'm asking is basically for someone to predict the future, and that the random element of the game is what makes FOF fun to play. I just wondered if my lack of experience in knowing what is "likely" or "probable" might be corrected by someone who has played the game a lot more than myself.

That was pretty much the case with my player who I started this thread for. I'd have probably rolled the dice and kept him a little longer to see if he corrected, but the experienced heads here said to cut and run. After a full season as a FA, LT Eli Kozempel is a 3/12 scrub and he'll no doubt retire soon. Good call, thanks guys!

So, Funchess, one season blip, or the start of a slow decline? Or impossible to know, which is perfectly fine as an answer.

corbes · 05-04-2018, 10:05 AM

It could be lousy scouting. Click on D. Boyer's name and examine his scouting ratings. Compare his evaluation to your own staff's evaluations (and double-check whether your own coaches are any good at scouting). After all that, decide whether you trust the accuracy and precision of your scouts. Lousy scouts have a decently-sized margin for erroneous evaluations.

Or it could be simple volatility, meaning that it was a random dice roll that predicts nothing about future changes.

Of the available options, a permanent slide is least likely.

Ushikawa · 05-04-2018, 10:35 AM

Most likely he will settle at the new rating, could move up or down again before getting old or injured but not nearly as likely

Sharkn20 · 05-04-2018, 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rumplebeanskin

Thanks to all that contributed when I originally posted this thread, much appreciated.

I have a similar question, but different circumstance and player.

Moving into the final year of his rookie contract, Devin Funchess' stats have suddenly taken a dive. On the plus side, his contract demands have come down from what they were last season, but I'm still wondering if it's a better bet to trade him. Buffalo want him, which with a mirror to real life, made me chuckle.

Is it possible that this slide corrects and he moves back towards being a mid 50's guy? If that happened, I'd have him on a great contract with the amount he currently wants.

Is is likely that this slide continues or he stays where he is now? In which case I'd be wiser to move him.

I understand what I'm asking is basically for someone to predict the future, and that the random element of the game is what makes FOF fun to play. I just wondered if my lack of experience in knowing what is "likely" or "probable" might be corrected by someone who has played the game a lot more than myself.

That was pretty much the case with my player who I started this thread for. I'd have probably rolled the dice and kept him a little longer to see if he corrected, but the experienced heads here said to cut and run. After a full season as a FA, LT Eli Kozempel is a 3/12 scrub and he'll no doubt retire soon. Good call, thanks guys!

So, Funchess, one season blip, or the start of a slow decline? Or impossible to know, which is perfectly fine as an answer.

WRs can start to slide down after the 7th season or so...

Rumplebeanskin · 05-04-2018, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by corbes

It could be lousy scouting. Click on D. Boyer's name and examine his scouting ratings. Compare his evaluation to your own staff's evaluations (and double-check whether your own coaches are any good at scouting). After all that, decide whether you trust the accuracy and precision of your scouts. Lousy scouts have a decently-sized margin for erroneous evaluations.

Or it could be simple volatility, meaning that it was a random dice roll that predicts nothing about future changes.

Of the available options, a permanent slide is least likely.

Ron Rivera's scouting is terrible, about 15. My two co-ordinators and my assistance are all about 65 for scouting, whichever one of them would give the rating, or a mix?

Devan Boyer's scouting rating is about a 20, max. Curious choice for the league scout!

Rumplebeanskin · 05-04-2018, 03:47 PM

As an update, i resigned Funchess in the end. His stats were pretty similar to the season before.

I went 8-8, won the NFC South, beat GB in the Wildcard then lost to the Vikings. Still, 3 trips to the post season in 3 years, and I won the Super Bowk in the middle season. Mainly because I've got Cam Newton, he's not bad. Doubt it'll last as I'm repeatedly drafting fairly poorly!

Sharkn20 · 05-04-2018, 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rumplebeanskin

As an update, i resigned Funchess in the end. His stats were pretty similar to the season before.

I went 8-8, won the NFC South, beat GB in the Wildcard then lost to the Vikings. Still, 3 trips to the post season in 3 years, and I won the Super Bowk in the middle season. Mainly because I've got Cam Newton, he's not bad. Doubt it'll last as I'm repeatedly drafting fairly poorly!

You should join tge OSFL to learn how to Draft

Firefly · 05-31-2018, 10:05 AM

If your scout's better than the league scout, then his rating will be more accurate. If, say, the bad scout says 30 and the better scout says 40, maybe the real rating is 50. If on the other hand the bad scout says 50 and the better scout says 40, then the real rating might be 30.

05-04-2018, 10:05 AM	#13
corbes College Benchwarmer Join Date: Nov 2003	It could be lousy scouting. Click on D. Boyer's name and examine his scouting ratings. Compare his evaluation to your own staff's evaluations (and double-check whether your own coaches are any good at scouting). After all that, decide whether you trust the accuracy and precision of your scouts. Lousy scouts have a decently-sized margin for erroneous evaluations. Or it could be simple volatility, meaning that it was a random dice roll that predicts nothing about future changes. Of the available options, a permanent slide is least likely. Last edited by corbes : 05-04-2018 at 10:06 AM.

04-16-2018, 12:46 PM	#2
Pyser Pro Rookie Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Los Angeles	bust. unlucky dice roll.

04-16-2018, 02:05 PM	#3
Rumplebeanskin n00b Join Date: Jul 2014	Fair enough. Just seemed like a massive cliff of a drop off that's all. I could understand progressive decrease, but that's like, sharp blow to the head, forget who your parents are type skill loss! Ah well, time to find a plan B then!

04-16-2018, 02:15 PM	#4
Rumplebeanskin n00b Join Date: Jul 2014	Apologies, forgot to ask. Is there any way he recovers from this? Or shall I just cut him now?

04-16-2018, 02:19 PM	#5
corbes College Benchwarmer Join Date: Nov 2003	Imagine that he woke up drunk on the side of the road with a strange handgun in the passenger seat and some blood on his shirt, smile at the mystery of it all, and then cut him.

04-16-2018, 05:35 PM	#7
Ushikawa H.S. Freshman Team Join Date: May 2015	The first Ex2 Sim is really just revealing who they are. The bars and eating at TC are simply a reflection of what you saw predraft. Lots of people get confused by this. It happens to everyone but having good scouting in your HC and relevant coordinators can minimize the frequency.

04-16-2018, 07:27 PM	#8
bdubbs n00b Join Date: Jan 2016	He's probably not going to recover, there's a lot of rookie busts out there. I just had a 3rd round DE go -7/-21 on me in TC2 last season. At the same time though I had a WR go something like +1/+10. You can see ratings change quite a bit after the reveal stage during a player's first 4 years. From my experience it seems like an individual player is only going to make one big jump up or down during that time span though. After that you're probably not going to see any big moves up or down until they start declining from age. Unless there's a serious injury

04-17-2018, 02:36 AM	#9
Rumplebeanskin n00b Join Date: Jul 2014	Thanks for the input guys. I'll get him cut then

04-17-2018, 03:34 AM	#10
Squirrel Mascot Join Date: Jul 2016	Yep cut dat ass But always advisable to wait until after pre-season 2 to do it

05-04-2018, 03:48 AM	#12
Rumplebeanskin n00b Join Date: Jul 2014	Thanks to all that contributed when I originally posted this thread, much appreciated. I have a similar question, but different circumstance and player. Moving into the final year of his rookie contract, Devin Funchess' stats have suddenly taken a dive. On the plus side, his contract demands have come down from what they were last season, but I'm still wondering if it's a better bet to trade him. Buffalo want him, which with a mirror to real life, made me chuckle. Is it possible that this slide corrects and he moves back towards being a mid 50's guy? If that happened, I'd have him on a great contract with the amount he currently wants. Is is likely that this slide continues or he stays where he is now? In which case I'd be wiser to move him. I understand what I'm asking is basically for someone to predict the future, and that the random element of the game is what makes FOF fun to play. I just wondered if my lack of experience in knowing what is "likely" or "probable" might be corrected by someone who has played the game a lot more than myself. That was pretty much the case with my player who I started this thread for. I'd have probably rolled the dice and kept him a little longer to see if he corrected, but the experienced heads here said to cut and run. After a full season as a FA, LT Eli Kozempel is a 3/12 scrub and he'll no doubt retire soon. Good call, thanks guys! So, Funchess, one season blip, or the start of a slow decline? Or impossible to know, which is perfectly fine as an answer.

05-04-2018, 10:35 AM	#14
Ushikawa H.S. Freshman Team Join Date: May 2015	Most likely he will settle at the new rating, could move up or down again before getting old or injured but not nearly as likely

05-04-2018, 03:47 PM	#17
Rumplebeanskin n00b Join Date: Jul 2014	As an update, i resigned Funchess in the end. His stats were pretty similar to the season before. I went 8-8, won the NFC South, beat GB in the Wildcard then lost to the Vikings. Still, 3 trips to the post season in 3 years, and I won the Super Bowk in the middle season. Mainly because I've got Cam Newton, he's not bad. Doubt it'll last as I'm repeatedly drafting fairly poorly!

05-31-2018, 10:05 AM	#19
Firefly High School Varsity Join Date: Dec 2007	If your scout's better than the league scout, then his rating will be more accurate. If, say, the bad scout says 30 and the better scout says 40, maybe the real rating is 50. If on the other hand the bad scout says 50 and the better scout says 40, then the real rating might be 30.

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