Werewolf CXXXIII - The Dark Knight - MOBSTERS WIN

[MrBug708]

Well, if you're bad, I'm dead.

[hoopsguy]

MrBug, you're going to live today if we lynch DV (or Crimson, but I can't move it at this point and lose last vote). And tomorrow would be a really good day as well.

Basically, the game is going to come down to people making a good decision over the next 6 hours. I won't go as far as to say it is "game over" if we get the right lynch today, but as far as I can tell that last mobster will have to have everything break his way to pull it off.

[Tyrith]

Eh, I'm done listening to you talk. You're too smart for me to just listen to everything you say, because you can and will eventually swing me around. If you're a villager, well, I'll listen to the I-told-you-so's after the game :P

[hoopsguy]

I told you so, when coming from the losers lounge, isn't all that gratifying.

Wouldn't you rather be saying, "thanks for turning me around on this one" when we're toasting the victory afterwards?

I'm likely out for a few hours - hope to be back for some/most of the final two hours prior to deadline. If there are any questions, please post them here so I can respond.

[Autumn]

Gotham Afternoon News

darth vilus - hoopsguy (1899), abe sargent (1907), mrbug708 (1956)
hoopsguy - darth vilus (1906), crimsonfox (1925), tyrith (1943), J23 (1981)

Thanks Hoops, please everyone make sure their vote is listed correctly, if I miss it the first time i'm not likely to go back.

[Abe Sargent]

At the end of the day, I have to play the odds. We have a 50/50 chance of hitting a wolf due to the double reveal.

Anyone remember that line from Tolkein, when Frodo encounters Strider? He believes Strider is trustworthy because he "Looks foul and feels fair, but a servant would look fair and feel foul."

I'm getting that vibe.


Alright math. Here how hoops is a seer:

1). He scanned CF, which I buy.
2). He scanned DV, which I think is a bit out there - CR is the obvious, and J23 the second obvious.
3). The wolves didn't attack him, unlikely.
4). CF just happens to be a Cunning. A bit unlikely that the only person he scanned was a Cunning.
5). That Cunning Wolf decides to counter reveal vs hoops


I find this string of possibles and maybes a bit too much. If hoops is a seer, then the wolves have done an amazing job at isolating him. They killed an odd target, isolating him the Group of 6, they had the one he told us was good counter, thus exposing a wolf in the Circle of Trust, and so forth.

Or, I can accept that all of the exceptions apply, and CF is lying.

I think Occam;'s Razor suggests that hoops's story, although possible, is highly unlikely.

unvote Darth V
vote hoops

[Abe Sargent]

While hoops is welcome to try and sway my vote back, I doubt that the facts of the matter will give him that opportunity.

[Tyrith]

Since it seems like things are well in hand here, there's a good chance I'm going to be gone for a long time. Don't let him wriggle out of it.

[CrimsonFox]

The other real pisser is that when I joined the game I had like maybe 20 minutes to jump in read as much I could, read PMs, make a vote, make a scan so I threw them out quickly. With like 3 minutes left I ALMOST....ALMOST switched my scan from Chubby to Hoops. Would have revealed immediately had that happened.
I really didn't have much time to analyze anything tho and had to just go with clearing who I could.

[hoopsguy]

Well, looks like this ship is taking on water.

The things that people are suggesting make me a wolf (who they killed at night, who was the cunning wolf) are elements that I have no control over so I don't know how to address them. The best I can do is speculate and I'm not sure what else is left to say that hasn't been covered.

Good game? Wolves, have your speeches ready for two hours from now?

I'm disappointed because I don't normally lose these type of showdowns, let alone when I'm actually the villager.

[Danny]

Oh Batman!

I know I can't take one more step towards you
'Cause all that's waiting is regret
And don't you know I'm not your ghost anymore?
You lost the love I loved the most

And I learned to live, half-alive
And now you want me one more time

And who do you think you are?
Runnin' 'round leaving scars
Collecting your jar of hearts
And tearing love apart

You're gonna catch a cold
From the ice inside your soul
So don't come back for me
Who do you think you are?

I hear you're asking all around
If I am anywhere to be found
But I have grown too strong
To ever fall back in your arms

And I learned to live, half-alive
And now you want me one more time

And who do you think you are?
Runnin' 'round leaving scars
Collecting your jar of hearts
And tearing love apart

You're gonna catch a cold
From the ice inside your soul
[ From: JAR OF HEARTS Lyrics - CHRISTINA PERRI ]
So don't come back for me
Who do you think you are?

Dear, it took so long just to feel alright
Remember how to put back the light in my eyes
I wish I had missed the first time that we kissed
Cause you broke all your promises

And now you're back
You don't get to get me back

And who do you think you are?
Runnin' 'round leaving scars
Collecting your jar of hearts
And tearing love apart

You're gonna catch a cold
From the ice inside your soul
So don't come back for me
Don't come back at all

And who do you think you are?
Runnin' 'round leaving scars
Collecting your jar of hearts
And tearing love apart

You're gonna catch a cold
From the ice inside your soul
Don't come back for me
Don't come back at all

Who do you think you are?

Who do you think you are?

Who do you think you are?

[CrimsonFox]

lol!

[CrimsonFox]

reminds me of the Spider man theme from the Electric company.

Nobody knows who you are!

[Danny]

And I didn't even need to change the lyrics. They were already a perfect song from me to Batman

[CrimsonFox]

Here's a better song for you to batman, danny:

My makeup green and purple looks so fine, And I'm like. It's better than your mask, Damn right! it's better than yours, take it off, I will kiss you ...

[J23]

Well, popped on to see if things might have changed, but it seems that most of the discussion ended around the time I left the thread. I hope we made the right decision today.

[hoopsguy]

We'll all find out together in about 20 minutes.

On the off chance that we're still playing tomorrow, you'll have two wolves on a platter. Start with Crimson, since there is no chance of him having a brutal wolf ability.

[Autumn]

Gotham News

darth vilus - hoopsguy (1899), mrbug708 (1956)
hoopsguy - darth vilus (1906), crimsonfox (1925), tyrith (1943), J23 (1981), abe sargent (2006)

[MrBug708]

Do or die for Bug

[mckerney]

Still feel unsure where to go with this, but...

Vote hoopsguy

[hoopsguy]

There won't be shenanigans.

Good work.

[MrBug708]

Damn

[CrimsonFox]

Cheer up, hoops. There is air conditioning in prison, cable TV, spaghetti and meatballs, even conjugal visits (maybe even from the Joker himself!) What more could you ask for!

[hoopsguy]

spaghetti and meatballs? Why didn't you mention this hours ago? Or yesterday?

[mckerney]

Figured at the point of my vote if CF is bad there were already 3 wolves on hoops there was nothing I could do to keep them from winning. On the other hand if hoops is bad and there was 1 wolf on him and I were to vote for DV they could switch and end it, so at least I made a move that wouldn't lose it for us.

[Autumn]

2 darth vilus - hoopsguy (1899), mrbug708 (1956)
6 hoopsguy - darth vilus (1906), crimsonfox (1925), tyrith (1943), J23 (1981), abe sargent (2006), mckerney (2020)

[Autumn]

This is Gotham Live.

Action at the courthouse today as the DA's office argued their cases on several suspects in the multitude of mob killings which have plagued Gotham this week. While several arrests are in the works, all of Gotham is abuzz with the arrest of Borz Sul. The man known in Gotham only as The Chechen was arrested today. He is being held on no bail in Gotham City jail. The prosecution is said to be building quite a case against one of the most notorious gang leaders in Gotham. Following the death of Sal Maroni earlier this week, the Gotham PD has finally inroads against the two biggest crime families in Gotham. The Chechen is expected to serve several life sentences if his trial goes through without problem.

Hoopsguy was The Chechen!

[Autumn]

Night actions are due by 11 pm

[MrBug708]

I would imagine that I won't be dead as everyone will assume I'm bad and another villager will die besides me.

[Tyrith]

Well, finally, he went away. Thank goodness.

[hoopsguy]

I was hoping for a better write-up. Joker got his jailing spread across something like 8 posts.

[J23]

go team

[mauchow]

At least you're alive in prison.. I'm freakin' dead

[mauchow]

and you're eating meatballs n shit, too

[Danny]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I was hoping for a better write-up. Joker got his jailing spread across something like 8 posts.

Sorry Hoops, you're no Joker

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by Danny

Sorry Hoops, you're no Joker

And you're no joker.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

and you're eating meatballs n shit, too

suddenly it sounds less appetizing. I think that's the fast food version.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Autumn

This is Gotham Live.

Action at the courthouse today as the DA's office argued their cases on several suspects in the multitude of mob killings which have plagued Gotham this week. While several arrests are in the works, all of Gotham is abuzz with the arrest of Borz Sul. The man known in Gotham only as The Chechen was arrested today. He is being held on no bail in Gotham City jail. The prosecution is said to be building quite a case against one of the most notorious gang leaders in Gotham. Following the death of Sal Maroni earlier this week, the Gotham PD has finally inroads against the two biggest crime families in Gotham. The Chechen is expected to serve several life sentences if his trial goes through without problem.

Hoopsguy was The Chechen!

/ghostly voice "noooooooooooooooo shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit"

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Anyone remember that line from Tolkein, when Frodo encounters Strider? He believes Strider is trustworthy because he "Looks foul and feels fair, but a servant would look fair and feel foul."

I love this analogy. Pretty dead on. This is your guys' game to win or lose as I was just a sudden passenger. Just tired of seeing people fall for fake reveals and wanted to slap some sense into you. In the morning I almost just didn't post at all, then tried think of a calm way of approaching it despite all my RL crap happening but in the end it was "f- you guys. don't mess this up!"

good work hanging on.

[CrimsonFox]

SO SORRY Chubby! Really felt bad that my RL crap got you killed. I could have saved you.

[mckerney]

Whew, glad we're still alive until tomorrow.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

SO SORRY Chubby! Really felt bad that my RL crap got you killed. I could have saved you.

it's all good, I was amazed i didn't get NKd earlier

[CrimsonFox]

As a reminder:

Abe = Batman
J23 = clean due to scan

Bug was hoops partner all day in an obvious 2 on 1 team effort. He didn't have to do that. When I said Bug was probably wolf it was merely an educated guess, then he exploded with all kinds of things and never faultered being on hoops side. No question in my mind he is wolf.

DV was hoops target. HIs reaction SCREAMS villager and if hoops had succeeded with DV being villager and night kill of villager, that's either game over or 1/2 a day from game over? This doesn't seem like wolf v wolf here.

Tyrith - no question in my mind that he is villager back with his day 1 and 2 stuff. and with the late vote on hoops yesterday before the fake reveal. And his urging to hang hoops and hold on. villager. Unless he's just THAT damn good.

mckerney - unvoted dv and sat there. reluctant late on hoops. He was one of those 3 quiet people on mauboy. IN which case the wolves really DID offer up mau as a sacrifice. if there's a 4th wolf and it's between DV and mckerney I'd bet the farm it's Mr. McK.

[CrimsonFox]

But this is for you guys to figure out at 8:01

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

As a reminder:

Abe = Batman
J23 = clean due to scan

Bug was hoops partner all day in an obvious 2 on 1 team effort. He didn't have to do that. When I said Bug was probably wolf it was merely an educated guess, then he exploded with all kinds of things and never faultered being on hoops side. No question in my mind he is wolf.

DV was hoops target. HIs reaction SCREAMS villager and if hoops had succeeded with DV being villager and night kill of villager, that's either game over or 1/2 a day from game over? This doesn't seem like wolf v wolf here.

Tyrith - no question in my mind that he is villager back with his day 1 and 2 stuff. and with the late vote on hoops yesterday before the fake reveal. And his urging to hang hoops and hold on. villager. Unless he's just THAT damn good.

mckerney - unvoted dv and sat there. reluctant late on hoops. He was one of those 3 quiet people on mauboy. IN which case the wolves really DID offer up mau as a sacrifice. if there's a 4th wolf and it's between DV and mckerney I'd bet the farm it's Mr. McK.

It would have been game over with 3-3 the likely result. O agree that DV is more likely villager than not right now.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

But this is for you guys to figure out at 8:01

Make sure you put your scan in just in case, because they might kill Thomkal or CR again, out of the blue, you know?

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

As a reminder:

Abe = Batman
J23 = clean due to scan

Bug was hoops partner all day in an obvious 2 on 1 team effort. He didn't have to do that. When I said Bug was probably wolf it was merely an educated guess, then he exploded with all kinds of things and never faultered being on hoops side. No question in my mind he is wolf.

To be fair, that is like saying Hiroshima probably suffered some damage.

I guess it will come down to who you will scan. I'm assuming you won't waste it on me, unless you are suddenly unsure about me and put "probably a wolf" Seems like Mc/Ty scan at this point?

[J23]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

As a reminder:

Abe = Batman
J23 = clean due to scan

Bug was hoops partner all day in an obvious 2 on 1 team effort. He didn't have to do that. When I said Bug was probably wolf it was merely an educated guess, then he exploded with all kinds of things and never faultered being on hoops side. No question in my mind he is wolf.

DV was hoops target. HIs reaction SCREAMS villager and if hoops had succeeded with DV being villager and night kill of villager, that's either game over or 1/2 a day from game over? This doesn't seem like wolf v wolf here.

Tyrith - no question in my mind that he is villager back with his day 1 and 2 stuff. and with the late vote on hoops yesterday before the fake reveal. And his urging to hang hoops and hold on. villager. Unless he's just THAT damn good.

mckerney - unvoted dv and sat there. reluctant late on hoops. He was one of those 3 quiet people on mauboy. IN which case the wolves really DID offer up mau as a sacrifice. if there's a 4th wolf and it's between DV and mckerney I'd bet the farm it's Mr. McK.

That's about where I'm at for the people left in the game.

[Abe Sargent]

Going into tomorrow we know we have a 4-2 scenario likely, and 3 on a deadlocked Circle of Trust - me, CF, and J23, with DV outside and looking in. The survivors of tonight that are in this foursome need to dictate tomorrow.

There is just three places the wolves can hide two people - MrBug, mckerney, and Tyrith. Of those, I personally feel mckerney is the least likely to be a wolf, but that's more of a random guess than anything else. We have a 66% chance of finding a wolf in this threesome. I'm feeling good about that.

[MrBug708]

Well, I'm not a wolf, so hopefully CF doesnt blow this