FOF 2007 - The Highlander Challenge

[QuikSand]

The Highlander Challenge

It’s been a while since I played a public, documented, solo FOF career. I thought I would give it a shot once again. I will again make a try to come up with a set of rules that make the game a long-term challenge for me – what I want is for the game to be interesting to play, challenging to win, but allow me to play “all out” within the rules that I have adopted up front. You may have heard me refer to this as a holy grail… it’s tougher than it seems.

So, my current thinking is that I’ll try a set of rules where I am allowed to do lots of different things – but none of them more than once per season. Thus, the play-on-words title of the challenge, which I hope won’t be lost on quite everyone.


So, here are the limitations for the career. In any given season:

-there can be only one unrestricted free agent signed to a one-year contract
-there can be only one unrestricted free agent signed to a two-year contract
-there can be only one unrestricted free agent signed to a three-year contract
-there can be only one unrestricted free agent signed to a four-year contract
-there can be only one unrestricted free agent signed to a five-year contract
-there can be only one unrestricted free agent signed to a six-year contract
-there can be only one unrestricted free agent signed to a seven-year contract
-there can be only one year on any new offer made to a restricted free agent
-there can be only one renegotiation before the season starts
-there can be only one renegotiation toward the end of the season
-there can be only one trade, either within the current draft or AI-initiated

Yes, I include my own out-of-contract players among the limits for FA signees. I am also aware that the ability to sign contracts for longer than three years generally means committing either huge money or else stuffing huge backends to the deals forcing a release some way through – so in essence, it will be very difficult for me to keep players around in this career, I expect. That is absolutely by design – the worry I’m targeting here is that I generally find it far too easy to just re-sign lots and lots of decent role players for minsal or a bit more year after year – and all of my solo teams turn into cohesion monsters as a result.

So, basically – my rookie draftees are mine through their rookie contract and for whatever I can sign them to as restricted free agents – meaning that I can get an easy four years out of most of them who turn out to be worth keeping. Past that, I will have a pretty limited ability to keep players around.

I’m also limiting my ability to sign undrafted rookies here. I’ll have to bend these rules as I initially build a team (empty cupboard will demand it) and fill in with one year rookies, but my intention is to have these limits apply to those players too.

[kurtism]

The Kurgan approves.

[QuikSand]

Startup

I am starting with a career that I seemingly abandoned some time ago, where I have possession of (in an NFL-mirror universe) the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. No particular reason why that I know of – they were willing to take me, I reckon, so they must have been bad. It’s the start of the 2023 season, and I have cut everyone who was under contract. We still have $93m of the $169m salary cap available to use this year, so we have the ability to use our limited FA powers to try to get a few foundation pieces into place, perhaps.

Some bending of the long-term rules will be required to field a team in these first years, and I guess the thing to do is essentially load this team up with gobs of undrafted free agents. I don’t want to have a 30-player exodus after they all switch from 4th to 5th year player status, though, so I will probably need to “phase in” the rules a bit.


So, in our first free agency, here are the initial players we pursue – easy to list by years:

1YR – DT Mitch Busby, $7m
2YR – CB Paul Woods, $14m
3YR – QB Chester Caruso, $12m
4YR – OT Pat O’Neill, $16m (6m bonus, even salary)
5YR – WR Melvin Hevey, $32.5m (7.5m bonus, even salary)
6YR – WR Jake Stuart, $123M (13th yr guy, won’t see the back end)
7YR – LB Gilbert Wilkerson, $118M (basically 4yr, $19m)

If we land them all (no reason to think we won’t) we will have three important offensive slots filled (QB-WR-WR) and a few key guys elsewhere. Filling in with nothing but rookies and maybe a few chemistry foundation guys is going to mean this team will be bad – but we won’t be starting from absolute zero, at least. My goal here is to make the out-years interesting… I already know that any set of rules make it fairly interesting to build a team. I want these rules to make it interesting to keep the team together – so the sooner we are basically up and running the better, I think.

I have to up my offer to CB Woods to land him, but that’s okay – I don’t think we will even approach the cap these two years. I don’t know if he’s a long term commitment for us, but he’s a pretty solid player at a tough-to-fill position, so this makes sense for now. I’m trying not to completely throw away these first few years.


I toy with the idea of going out and landing a bunch of high personality chemistry types to build a foundation – but candidly I think that focusing in chemistry in this career will make it more time-consuming than I want. Plus, I don’t want to be in the spot of wasting precious FA contracts on these guys – so they’d be out the door in a few years anyway. Nope, I’ll keep it simple… we will surround this year’s crop of free agents with rookies and just take it from there.

[QuikSand]

2023 Draft

We hold pick #4 overall, and then it appears that we don’t eve have our picks in rounds 4, 5, and 6. That is unfortunate… might need to do some dealing just to get some guys onto the field out here. More rule bending indeed.

I decide the best remedy here is to deal down in the draft, forego the one big splash player, and pick up multiple picks. So, we do – from 1.4 to 1.17 and getting the top five picks from San Diego in the deal. That should help us, even though we won’t get the impact DE that would likely have awaited us at pick 1.4.

Pick Pos Name                  Grd Adj Dash  ST  BP  Agil  Bjump  PS  Dev  O/U Pre   Post
1.17 DE  Arnold Ingram         6.0 6.6 ----  33  --  ----  -----  --  54%  VU  49/63 
2.07 DT  Bo Bolsins (DE)       5.9 6.4 4.93  38  32  7.58   9-05  --  33%  NA  23/47 
2.15 S   Chuck Kemnitzer (CB)  5.6 5.3 4.36  26  21  7.50   8-01  47  58%  UR  36/55 
3.05 LT  Junior Pruett         5.1 5.6 5.44  39  39  7.64   8-08  --  27%  NA  31/58 
3.18 WR  Warren Dickens        4.5 4.7 4.58  31  15  7.20   9-00  56  20%  NA  24/49
4.17 C   Phil Brennan          5.3 4.6 5.05  39  30  7.94   7-07  --  17%  NA  19/55
5.16 S   Jessie Blythe (CB)    4.1 3.8 4.61  39  21  7.58   8-05  39  17%  NA  20/57 
7.06 WR  Rich Richmond         4.2 4.4 4.55  16   8  7.06   9-00  52  37%  VU  17/40 

Well, it turns out we do get a pretty solid-looking DE out of this draft after all – not one the the elite players I saw at the top of the heap, but a guy who ought to be very good for us, I think. In a QB-weak draft, the one guy I was watching got snapped up at the top of round two, wiping out my theory of grabbing a QB-of-the-future in round two. Instead, I’m switching to basically BPA now for our next picks.

We target another pass-rushing defensive lineman in round two, and then a safety who will presumably be better suited to play as a cover corner. I am hoping to see a combine stud OG slip to our round three pick, but he goes just ahead of us – probably for the best that we focus on hard-to-fill positions anyhow. Tackle is much harder to fill, and we get a guy in round three who looks like an excellent pass blocker.

Nothing too spectacular from here on out – drafted a number of guys we didn’t interview, which is troubling but also a reflection of our less-than-stellar scout, in whom I don’t place a ton of faith. I’d like to think we got some late-round steals… but then again I always think that at this point.

[QuikSand]

Deciding on a Style

On defense, I already know what I want to do – I’m trying to learn more about using the 3-4 front, so I’m going to use my pretty vanilla 3-4 defensive setup. That means that we already have our entire DL set of starters in place with two rookies and one veteran DT. We do have three starting LB jobs to fill from the free agent pile, though – we’ll get by with whomever we land there.

On offense, I have two veteran receivers, two rookie receivers, and not a sole at RB. I think we are going to be passing the ball a good deal, and I expect that I will set up a sort of downfield derivative offense to start things off. I might seek to make extra use of multi-WR sets – our QB Caruso knows 15 formations so we ought to be okay running a lot of 3-WR and 4-WR sets, I think. I’ll look for some RBs with the ability to make things happen from out of the backfield.

[QuikSand]

2023 Camp

Okay – I’m going to do this a little bit unusually. I’m going to run through camp without signing the rest of my roster. That way, all these hanger-on veterans will be gone, and right after training camp we will go out and fill up with rookies. That way also, I don’t have any particular insider access to whether the young’ns I’m filling up with are creepers or whatnot. I don’t want to inadvertently gain by going out and picking up all these rookies. So – we head into training camp with just 15 players. Down the line, I will make this a more standard process, this is a one-time hiccup.

Tampa Bay Player Report (TB 2023a - TB 2023b)

Name	Pos	Team	TB 2023a Current	TB 2023a Future	TB 2023b Current	TB 2023b Future	Overall Current Change	Overall Future Change
Caruso, Chester	QB	Tampa	40	49	45 (5)	50 (1)	5	1
Dickens, Warren	FL	Tampa	24	49	28 (4)	46 (-3)	4	-3
Hevey, Melvin	FL	Tampa	54	54	54 (0)	54 (0)	0	0
Richmond, Rich	SE	Tampa	17	40	18 (1)	35 (-5)	1	-5
Stuart, Jake	SE	Tampa	52	52	45 (-7)	45 (-7)	-7	-7
Brennan, Phil	C	Tampa	19	55	25 (6)	54 (-1)	6	-1
Pruett, Junior	LT	Tampa	31	58	35 (4)	59 (1)	4	1
Ingram, Arnold	LDE	Tampa	49	63	54 (5)	66 (3)	5	3
Busby, Mitch	NT	Tampa	54	54	45 (-9)	45 (-9)	-9	-9
Bolsins, Bo	RDE	Tampa	23	47	28 (5)	52 (5)	5	5
Wilkerson, Gilbert	SILB	Tampa	56	56	56 (0)	56 (0)	0	0
Kemnitzer, Chuck	LCB	Tampa	36	55	40 (4)	58 (3)	4	3
Blythe, Jessie	RCB	Tampa	20	57	22 (2)	50 (-7)	2	-7
Woods, Paul	RCB	Tampa	56	56	51 (-5)	51 (-5)	-5	-5

Okay – a lot of downgrading going on for our veterans, no shock there. But it does look like we got hits on both of our young pass rushers, and our top cover man – all were nice camp bumpers. Mixed bag, but I can’t be too surprised that we saw erosion among the older players – thought honestly I wasn’t expecting quite as much from nearly everyone. And, to little surprise, no major breakouts from our later round players.


So, we build up to 46 players (no need to do more than that here) and are ready for season one. I leave LB Wilkerson in the SILB slot, and I fully expect him to post an ungodly sum of tackles this season. Longer term, his perfect role might actually turn out to be somewhere else – he’s an excellent pass rusher but also pretty good in coverage, so maybe at the strong outside slot? Past that, there aren’t really many tough calls to make here. This is going to be a very shaky team, I suspect.

[QuikSand]

2023 season

Benchmarks:

Roster Rating – 1 (last)
Cohesion – 52-56-57-52 (last in all)


My predictions:

Gilbert Wilkerson makes first team LB with 130 tackles
Chester Caruso posts roughly 20 TD and 20 Int
Converted QB Jackie Hoffman posts almost 1,000 total yards
We finish 2-14 and secure a very tidy draft slot for next season


Season narrative:

I don’t expect much at all, needless to say – so I’m blown away when we hang up 37 points in our opener to get a win. Turns out it was aided by a defensive TD and a few fluky plays, but we did mange 386 yards of offense – so maybe we aren’t a 2-win team after all.

We get to 3-1 in the early season, and I am totally alarmed. This was supposed to be a long-term build. We can’t already be there! Here is the summary at the halfway point… I don’t know what to say…

Front Office Football 2007
2023 Summary for Tampa Bay Buccaneers
   
Year                2023                                      
Record              5-3                                       
Winning Pct.        .625                                      
All-Time            117-163                                   
Winning Pct.        .417                                      
Playoffs            0-2                                       
Playoff Visits      2                                         
Bowl Wins           0                                         
Head Coach          Matt Curtis                               
Record              5-3                                       
Winning Pct.        .625                                      
Off. Coord.         C. Spencer                                
Def. Coord.         Z. Huntley                                
   
Tampa Bay Buccaneers    Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         29.9      12          
Rushing Yards           126.5     8           
Yards Per Carry         4.23      12          
Pass Attempts           28.5      28          
Completions             16.6      29          
Completion Pct.         58.3      21          
Passing Yards           210.0     22          
Yards Per Attempt       7.37      7           
Yards Per Catch         12.63     6           
Total Yardage Gained    325.4     15          
3rd Down Conversions    40.0      12 (T)      
Points Per Game         23.5      9           
Pass Rush Pct.          21.3      7           
Pass Defense Pct.       52.9      18          
Turnovers               11        10 (T)      
Turnover Margin         +7        5 (T)       
   
Opponents               Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         30.6      26          
Rushing Yards           124.9     25          
Yards Per Carry         4.08      16          
Pass Attempts           31.6      11          
Completions             19.3      11          
Completion Pct.         60.9      17          
Passing Yards           230.4     22          
Yards Per Attempt       7.28      27          
Yards Per Catch         11.97     28          
Total Yardage Gained    342.5     23          
3rd Down Conversions    38.6      13          
Points Per Game         22.3      24          
Pass Rush Pct.          21.7      24          
Pass Defense Pct.       67.4      26          
Turnovers               18        3 (T)       
   
Week  Team  Versus        Oppnt  
1     37    CAR           25      
2     25    JAX           21      
3     17    SEA           27      
4     31    at ATL        17      
5     21    at MIN        32      
6     23    NOS           21      
7     17    at DET        25      
9     17    GBY           10      
10          CHI                   
11          at CAR                
12          at LRK                
13          at WAS                
14          IND                   
15          at NOS                
16          at TEN                
17          ATL                   
   
Passing                 Pos   Att   Comp  Yards Y/Att TD    Int   Rate  
14 C. Caruso            QB    228   133   1680  7.37  14    10    83.6    
**Team                  ---   228   133   1680  7.37  14    10    83.6    
$$Opp                   ---   253   154   1843  7.28  9     10    78.5    
   
Rushing                 Pos   Att   Yards Y/Att TD    Fum  
5 J. Hoffman            RB    121   456   3.77  1     1       
47 T. Duncan            RB    86    421   4.90  5     1       
14 C. Caruso            QB    27    124   4.59  0     5       
**Team                  ---   239   1012  4.23  6     9       
$$Opp                   ---   245   999   4.08  10    12      
   
Receiving               Pos   Targ  Catch Yards Y/Ctc Y/Tar Drop  TD  
81 M. Hevey             WR    64    37    547   14.78 8.55  1     5       
88 J. Stuart            WR    60    36    496   13.78 8.27  2     2       
18 W. Dickens           WR    38    20    302   15.10 7.95  0     4       
86 R. Richmond          WR    24    12    133   11.08 5.54  2     0       
   
Defense                 Pos   Tack  Asst  Sack  Hurr  Ints  Defn  PDPct  
93 G. Wilkerson         ILB   50    17    0.0   1     3     3     80.7    
25 P. Woods             CB    38    17    0.0   0     3     1     72.3    
36 T. Kaplan            S     37    13    1.0   1     0     6     84.7    
91 M. Busby             DT    34    10    3.0   9     0     0     81.3    
56 W. Simmons           OLB   32    8     1.0   0     0     1     68.2    
99 B. Bolsins           DE    26    13    4.0   6     0     0     81.4    
33 C. Kemnitzer         CB    18    3     0.0   0     1     3     77.6    
98 A. Ingram            DE    17    6     2.5   10    0     0     82.0    
35 R. Shapiro           CB    16    2     0.0   0     1     1     80.5    
74 B. Connell           DT    14    4     2.0   1     0     0     79.5    
45 G. Sanderson         S     14    4     0.0   0     1     5     88.2    
96 D. Kerry             DT    13    5     0.5   2     0     0     82.5    
55 V. Hubbard           OLB   13    5     0.0   1     0     1     72.9    
95 A. Herndon           OLB   13    5     1.0   0     0     0     77.2    
53 J. Marcheck          ILB   12    3     0.0   0     0     1     70.0    
26 V. Martin            S     10    5     0.0   0     1     1     82.2    
39 T. Hopkins           CB    8     2     0.0   0     0     0     72.4    

Just to be clear about the nature of this team, let me betray my previous intentions, and post what my scout thinks of this team:

Front Office Football 2007
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Roster, Scout Overview
   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate  Future Estimate Cntrct 
Caruso, Chester         14  QB    QB    7    47                50                3 yrs
Jacobs, Glenn           9   QB          1    12                32                1 yr.
Harvill, Nick           15  QB          1    11                35                1 yr.
Duncan, Trevor          47  RB          1    13                17                1 yr.
Hoffman, Jackie         5   RB    RB    1    11                22                1 yr.
Dole, Emmanuel          42  FB    FB    1    14                24                1 yr.
Horowitz, Jimmie        28  FB          1    9                 16                1 yr.
Horibe, Korey           82  TE    TE    1    10                17                1 yr.
Jamieson, Tommy         87  TE          1    9                 17                1 yr.
Hevey, Melvin           81  FL    FL    5    54                54                5 yrs
Dickens, Warren         18  FL          1    32                46                4 yrs
Stuart, Jake            88  SE    SE    13   45                45                6 yrs
Richmond, Rich          86  SE          1    19                35                3 yrs
Brennan, Phil           54  C     C     1    29                54                4 yrs
Grant, Tyrell           61  LG    RG    1    12                26                1 yr.
Money, Steven           75  LG    LG    1    12                29                1 yr.
Thierry, Jack           60  LG          1    10                22                1 yr.
Pruett, Junior          64  LT    LT    1    37                59                4 yrs
O'Neill, Pat            73  RT    RT    5    52                52                4 yrs
Clevenger, Britt        77  RT          1    12                25                1 yr.
Collier, Colin          16  P           1    26                43                1 yr.
Cooper, Carlton         17  K           1    28                35                1 yr.
Ingram, Arnold          98  LDE   LDE   1    60                66                4 yrs
Henson, Nolan           79  LDE         1    9                 18                1 yr.
Bolsins, Bo             99  RDE   RDE   1    30                52                4 yrs
Tovar, Frank            70  RDE         1    10                18                1 yr.
**Kerry, Daniel         96  RDT   RDT   1    11                16                1 yr.
Busby, Mitch            91  NT    LDT   5    45                45                1 yr.
Connell, Billy Joe      74  NT          1    10                34                1 yr.
Wilkerson, Gilbert      93  SILB  MLB   7    56                56                7 yrs
Marcheck, Jesse         53  WILB        1    9                 24                1 yr.
Strickland, Gabe        52  WILB        1    6                 18                1 yr.
Weintraub, Daryl        50  MLB         1    8                 30                1 yr.
Simmons, William        56  SLB   SLB   1    8                 17                1 yr.
Hubbard, Van            55  SLB         1    7                 16                1 yr.
Herndon, Aaron          95  WLB   WLB   1    9                 17                1 yr.
Kemnitzer, Chuck        33  LCB   LCB   1    51                58                3 yrs
**Shapiro, Russell      35  LCB         1    15                34                1 yr.
Hopkins, Trent          39  LCB         1    12                27                1 yr.
Woods, Paul             25  RCB   RCB   6    51                51                2 yrs
Blythe, Jessie          46  RCB         1    24                50                3 yrs
Dodge, Paul             43  RCB         1    11                23                1 yr.
Kaplan, Terrance        36  SS    SS    1    12                18                1 yr.
Biru, Ronnie            23  SS          1    11                23                1 yr.
Martin, Van             26  FS    FS    1    13                35                1 yr.
Sanderson, Greg         45  FS          1    12                30                1 yr.

Just so you’re seeing what I’m seeing – that’s an awful lot of guys with current ratings of 10 or so… and many of them are starters. S Terrance Kaplan is rated 12/18 by my scout, and he’s posting a PD% of 84.7 (without even being puffed up by interceptions) – I can’t even get that out of my 75/75 top draft pick in most leagues! Hell, my $9 million cornerback Woods across the field from this guy has three picks and he’s sitting on a PD% of 72/3 – and this is a pretty solid 51/51 veteran. What gives?

I assume this is substantially sample size at work – but I have had tons of empty cupboard teams start out barely able to remain competitive. I guess the handful of free agents here are really making a huge difference, after all.


Okay… things come back to earth in the second half, as we really get swallowed up by the league. We finish at 6-10 for the year, which is much more like what I had been expecting. Not that I’m happy to lose games – I just wasn’t sure what the hell was going on in the early going there. I’m writing it off as an encouraging, but nonetheless fluky, run of good luck.

Here’s the year end summary printout:

Front Office Football 2007
2023 Summary for Tampa Bay Buccaneers
   
Year                2023                                      
Record              6-10                                      
Winning Pct.        .375                                      
All-Time            118-170                                   
Winning Pct.        .409                                      
Playoffs            0-2                                       
Playoff Visits      2                                         
Bowl Wins           0                                         
Head Coach          Matt Curtis                               
Record              6-10                                      
Winning Pct.        .375                                      
Off. Coord.         C. Spencer                                
Def. Coord.         Z. Huntley                                
   
Tampa Bay Buccaneers    Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         27.5      18          
Rushing Yards           113.9     17          
Yards Per Carry         4.14      11          
Pass Attempts           31.4      21          
Completions             17.6      26 (T)      
Completion Pct.         55.9      26          
Passing Yards           229.7     13          
Yards Per Attempt       7.31      9           
Yards Per Catch         13.08     2           
Total Yardage Gained    329.1     11          
3rd Down Conversions    42.2      7 (T)       
Points Per Game         19.1      20          
Pass Rush Pct.          18.8      20 (T)      
Pass Defense Pct.       49.5      23          
Turnovers               27        16 (T)      
Turnover Margin         +1        11 (T)      
   
Opponents               Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         31.7      29          
Rushing Yards           128.6     27          
Yards Per Carry         4.06      21          
Pass Attempts           30.0      3           
Completions             19.2      10 (T)      
Completion Pct.         64.0      30          
Passing Yards           239.5     25          
Yards Per Attempt       7.98      31          
Yards Per Catch         12.48     30          
Total Yardage Gained    357.4     30          
3rd Down Conversions    42.2      29          
Points Per Game         24.4      28          
Pass Rush Pct.          21.6      26          
Pass Defense Pct.       63.5      24          
Turnovers               28        16 (T)      
   
Week  Team  Versus        Oppnt  
1     37    CAR           25      
2     25    JAX           21      
3     17    SEA           27      
4     31    at ATL        17      
5     21    at MIN        32      
6     23    NOS           21      
7     17    at DET        25      
9     17    GBY           10      
10    14    CHI           24      
11    14    at CAR        45      
12    29    at LRK        35      
13    30    at WAS        24      
14    7     IND           13      
15    0     at NOS        20      
16    3     at TEN        28      
17    21    ATL           24      
   
Passing                 Pos   Att   Comp  Yards Y/Att TD    Int   Rate  
14 C. Caruso            QB    500   280   3664  7.33  24    16    81.9    
**Team                  ---   503   281   3675  7.31  24    17    80.9    
$$Opp                   ---   480   307   3832  7.98  27    16    93.5    
   
Rushing                 Pos   Att   Yards Y/Att TD    Fum  
47 T. Duncan            RB    180   750   4.17  6     3       
5 J. Hoffman            RB    176   728   4.14  4     4       
14 C. Caruso            QB    45    213   4.73  0     10      
**Team                  ---   440   1822  4.14  10    27      
$$Opp                   ---   507   2058  4.06  19    23      
   
Receiving               Pos   Targ  Catch Yards Y/Ctc Y/Tar Drop  TD  
81 M. Hevey             WR    157   90    1383  15.37 8.81  11    8       
88 J. Stuart            WR    114   60    959   15.98 8.41  10    6       
18 W. Dickens           WR    78    38    457   12.03 5.86  2     5       
86 R. Richmond          WR    55    27    336   12.44 6.11  6     1       
82 K. Horibe            TE    21    16    150   9.38  7.14  2     2       
   
Defense                 Pos   Tack  Asst  Sack  Hurr  Ints  Defn  PDPct  
93 G. Wilkerson         ILB   114   39    1.0   1     4     5     78.1    
25 P. Woods             CB    65    28    0.0   1     3     7     75.0    
36 T. Kaplan            S     61    27    1.0   2     0     8     82.4    
56 W. Simmons           OLB   59    15    2.0   0     0     4     68.3    
91 M. Busby             DT    55    18    5.0   12    0     0     81.8    
99 B. Bolsins           DE    49    28    6.0   16    0     0     81.3    
98 A. Ingram            DE    40    19    7.0   15    0     0     82.0    
33 C. Kemnitzer         CB    39    7     0.0   0     2     10    79.1    
74 B. Connell           DT    38    12    2.0   2     0     0     79.6    
55 V. Hubbard           OLB   30    14    0.0   1     0     2     72.7    
96 D. Kerry             DT    27    11    1.0   2     0     0     81.6    
39 T. Hopkins           CB    26    4     0.0   0     3     0     78.9    
26 V. Martin            S     26    12    0.0   0     1     2     79.5    
53 J. Marcheck          ILB   24    6     0.0   0     1     2     73.9    
95 A. Herndon           OLB   24    8     1.0   0     0     2     78.9    
45 G. Sanderson         S     24    6     0.0   0     1     6     81.8    
50 D. Weintraub         ILB   18    4     0.0   0     0     0     66.6    
35 R. Shapiro           CB    16    2     0.0   0     1     1     80.5    

[QuikSand]

Season observations:

Six wins greatly exceeded my thinking, so that’s nice to see. Investing early in QB-WR-WR seems like a pretty good way to go for immediate returns, I’m thinking. It’s alarming to me that this team’s running game was this effective – better than league average in yards per carry. Our running backs are total stiffs, and the run blocking scores of our starting five linemen are, left to right: 8-20-34-24-48. This is not a team that fields a terribly imposing lineup in that regard. I’m sure the gameplan is making some difference, but that seems like a lot to be coming from one source.

I would like to see this LB corps start to come together – just adding even marginal talent there should make a big difference. I think we are really all set with respect to the defensive line already – the biggest question for us is probably whether Bo Bolsins ought to move back to play NT – but I think he is locked in as an outside rusher, even up at 319 pounds of whatever he is.

Eventually, we will need to decide what to make of guys like S Kaplan – I don’t see any way that a guy rated 12/18 or whatever, even if he is some sort of slight creeper, is a long-term investment for us. But as we look to patch up wide open roster slots, maybe we don’t need to feel pressure to hurry up with our strong safety right away, if we can re-sign this guy for a couple more years. Who knew?

[QuikSand]

2024 Offseason

Okay, the biggest question is – will WR Jake Stuart retire? Of does he have a 14th season in him? Answer – B. He’s back.

Past that, not much to note. We have 14 guys signed, as NT Mitch Busby is the one guy whose contract expired last year. We are open to a new deal with Busby for next year – he was solid for us, I think, and ought to re-sign fairly affordably.

We head into free agency with a lot off holes to fill, obviously – I’m thinking that my top veteran needs are linebacker (maybe two of them) and perhaps at offensive guard. My thinking is that, as usual, we can pick up a passable RB in the draft, and perhaps a project QB as well. I think we do need some depth at DB, and I’m open to going either way there, veteran or a top draft pick. I like CB Kemnitzer a lot as a future #1 cover corner, but we need at least one more guy back there with some pure coverage skills, as I don’t think Jessie Blythe has much more in him than as a supporting player. We’ll see about other void positions like TE and FB… maybe a late round draft pick can get us over the hump there.

Here are my FA targets:

Reneg – CB Paul Woods, 4yrs $20m
1YR – RB Lincoln Palermo, $1.7m
2YR – DT Mitch Busby, $4m
3YR – RG Kenny Bell, $14.4m
4YR – SLB Christian Seals, $26m (10m bonus, even salary)
5YR –
6YR – CB Louie Sawyer, $34.5m (10.5 bonus, even salary)
7YR – TE J.C. Atwell, $106m (essentially 3yr, $6.7m)

RB Palermo is a 9th year guy with over 10,000 yards rushing under his belt already, but he’s a mentor and has pretty good skills for our system, so I think this makes sense, even if he slides 5 or more points in camp. I put in to re-sign DT Busby, but I don’t want to commit longer term there. G Kenny Bell is an 8th year guy, and should really shore up the right side of our line.

LB Seals looks perfect for the strong side, and as a 5th year guy I’m fine paying up for him. CB Sawyer is a coverage stud, and I hope he becomes a fixture for us, even though this is pretty big money. The deal with TE Atwell is basically to get three decent years from a productive veteran in his declining years.

I leave the 5-yr slot open… and may use it after the draft if we still have a gaping hole somewhere. But for now, I know all these are need areas, and will be glad to land a bunch of immediate contributors.

Alas – I miss on LB Seals, as he immediately re-signs with the Rams. My backup plan is another pretty good fit at LB in Mack Quinn, who takes our offer for $23m, but without much bonus. My plan will now be to slot Quinn inside where he is best suited, and maybe move Gilbert Wilkerson outside. Anyway, we land our six revised targets, and shore things up in several slots.

[QuikSand]

2024 draft

I again am tempted to pull a trade-down in round one and pick up some extra picks, just to accelerate the filling-in process. There’s a seeming cant-miss QB in this draft, but I don’t expect to see him at pick 1.6, so I’ll likely be looking at a deal-down once again.

Well, I’m shocked to see the top CB in this draft slide to my pick, and even though I have made a commitment of free agent dollars there, this guy is simply too good to let slip by. Billy Shea is a five-red prospect, and you don’t see that too often. Especially at a tough spot like CB, and sitting at pick number six. Wow. No dealing down for us, this guy is a stud.

We still have spots to fill, of course. I’d like to do another trade-down, but the value of an early 2nd round pick just isn’t all that much. So, instead, I bring aboard a pretty impressive-looking DT whom I think can become a serious starter for us as well. Yes, this isn’t the ideal short-term move as I have a veteran there already, but I think this is a solid long term add at yet another tough position, and that has real value.

Pick Pos Name                  Grd Adj Dash  ST  BP  Agil  Bjump  PS  Dev  O/U Pre   Post
1.06 CB  Billy Shea            7.3 7.5 4.34  44  21  6.84   9-04  60  30%  VO? 46/78 
2.06 DT  Amos Wilkerson        5.7 6.2 4.87  35  31  7.41   7-07  --  23%  UR  24/60 
3.06 RG  Maurice Donhoff       5.4 5.1 5.11  17  33  7.62   8-07  --  14%  NA  23/55 
4.06 QB  Bill Wilkins          4.9 5.6 4.80  41  13  7.56   8-04  54  17%  NA  11/54 
5.06 FS  Morris Billodeaux     4.0 3.8 4.71  37  10  7.53   8-03  49  39%  NA  18/57 
6.06 WLB Heath Palm            3.9 3.7 4.60  29  14  7.58   9-02  16  47%  NA  18/32 
7.06 SLB Pete Reese            3.8 3.6 ----  28  --  ----   ----  36  56%  VO  

Our later picks cover need positions – we get a solid pass blocker to add to our left side line, and a (hopefully) playable backup QB. The last two picks give us a couple of guys to throw out there into the outside LB roles, but not likely long term starters.

Signing CB Sawyer and now drafting Shea gives us some extra depth at CB, and I think the fair thing to do is to move 201 lb corner Paul Woods over to play as a safety, where he will step in ahead of last year’s surprisingly nice young player, Terrance Kaplan.

So – I once again fill up to 46 players, re-signing only as many of last year’s after-camp signees as are needed to get us to a legal overall roster.

I take one last look for a free agent worth plunging in on a 5yr deal for, but come up mostly empty – I think perhaps I waited too long here. Instead, I just put out a 5yr offer to a decent but not exciting 3rd year outside linebacker Donovan Mathews, who can probably play the weak side for us for a few years – it’s a 5yr deal, but in practice will only work for three.

[QuikSand]

2024 Camp

So, we get to training camp, moment of truth for our young guys. My main hope is that CB Shea really lives up to those massive combines, and not down to my scout’s VO grade. We have hopes for other rookies, but he should be a franchise-defining player, I think.
Tampa Bay Player Report (TB 2024a - TB 2024b)

Name	Pos	Team	TB 2024a Current	TB 2024a Future	TB 2024b Current	TB 2024b Future	Overall Current Change	Overall Future Change
Caruso, Chester	QB	Tampa	49	49	51 (2)	51 (2)	2	2
Jacobs, Glenn	QB	Tampa	13	30	16 (3)	31 (1)	3	1
Wilkins, Bill	QB	Tampa	11	54	16 (5)	52 (-2)	5	-2
Duncan, Trevor	RB	Tampa	13	17	14 (1)	17 (0)	1	0
Hoffman, Jackie	RB	Tampa	11	21	11 (0)	21 (0)	0	0
Palermo, Lincoln	RB	Tampa	45	45	37 (-8)	37 (-8)	-8	-8
Dole, Emmanuel	FB	Tampa	14	22	16 (2)	22 (0)	2	0
Horowitz, Jimmie	FB	Tampa	9	17	10 (1)	16 (-1)	1	-1
Atwell, J.C.	TE	Tampa	45	45	40 (-5)	40 (-5)	-5	-5
Jamieson, Tommy	TE	Tampa	11	18	11 (0)	17 (-1)	0	-1
Dickens, Warren	FL	Tampa	32	45	36 (4)	45 (0)	4	0
Hevey, Melvin	FL	Tampa	54	54	54 (0)	54 (0)	0	0
Richmond, Rich	SE	Tampa	19	33	21 (2)	33 (0)	2	0
Stuart, Jake	SE	Tampa	45	45	36 (-9)	36 (-9)	-9	-9
Brennan, Phil	C	Tampa	31	54	37 (6)	54 (0)	6	0
Donhoff, Maurice	LG	Tampa	23	55	27 (4)	58 (3)	4	3
Grant, Tyrell	LG	Tampa	12	26	13 (1)	25 (-1)	1	-1
Thierry, Jack	LG	Tampa	11	23	14 (3)	23 (0)	3	0
Bell, Kenny	RG	Tampa	62	62	58 (-4)	58 (-4)	-4	-4
Pruett, Junior	LT	Tampa	39	57	43 (4)	57 (0)	4	0
Cooper, Carlton	K	Tampa	30	35	29 (-1)	34 (-1)	-1	-1
Collier, Colin	P	Tampa	31	46	32 (1)	45 (-1)	1	-1
Henson, Nolan	LDE	Tampa	9	16	10 (1)	16 (0)	1	0
Ingram, Arnold	LDE	Tampa	64	68	70 (6)	70 (2)	6	2
Busby, Mitch	NT	Tampa	45	45	45 (0)	45 (0)	0	0
Wilkerson, Amos	NT	Tampa	24	60	28 (4)	60 (0)	4	0
Bolsins, Bo	RDE	Tampa	33	54	36 (3)	54 (0)	3	0
Tovar, Frank	RDE	Tampa	11	19	13 (2)	19 (0)	2	0
Hubbard, Van	SLB	Tampa	8	16	9 (1)	16 (0)	1	0
Reese, Pete	SLB	Tampa	17	27	20 (3)	28 (1)	3	1
Wilkerson, Gilbert	SILB	Tampa	56	56	53 (-3)	53 (-3)	-3	-3
Marcheck, Jesse	WILB	Tampa	11	26	12 (1)	25 (-1)	1	-1
Quinn, Mack	WILB	Tampa	52	52	52 (0)	52 (0)	0	0
Weintraub, Daryl	MLB	Tampa	8	26	10 (2)	26 (0)	2	0
Herndon, Aaron	WLB	Tampa	9	16	11 (2)	17 (1)	2	1
Mathews, Donovan	WLB	Tampa	25	33	28 (3)	33 (0)	3	0
Palm, Heath	WLB	Tampa	18	32	21 (3)	32 (0)	3	0
Sawyer, Louie	LCB	Tampa	54	54	53 (-1)	53 (-1)	-1	-1
Shea, Billy	LCB	Tampa	46	78	45 (-1)	78 (0)	-1	0
Blythe, Jessie	RCB	Tampa	27	45	30 (3)	45 (0)	3	0
Kemnitzer, Chuck	RCB	Tampa	51	61	57 (6)	62 (1)	6	1
Biru, Ronnie	SS	Tampa	13	24	14 (1)	24 (0)	1	0
Kaplan, Terrance	SS	Tampa	16	21	17 (1)	20 (-1)	1	-1
Woods, Paul	SS	Tampa	50	53	52 (2)	52 (-1)	2	-1
Billodeaux, Morris	FS	Tampa	18	57	21 (3)	48 (-9)	3	-9
Martin, Van	FS	Tampa	14	32	16 (2)	31 (-1)	2	-1
Sanderson, Greg	FS	Tampa	13	30	16 (3)	30 (0)	3	0

Okay – the good news, we can pick it out. CB Shea holds even at 78 potential, which should make him a top tier cover man. We’ll take it. DT Wilkerson also only holds, and that is a little disappointing. Here’s the rookie report, easier to assess:

  Pick Pos Name                  Grd Adj Dash  ST  BP  Agil  Bjump  PS  Dev  O/U Pre   Post
  1.06 CB  Billy Shea            7.3 7.5 4.34  44  21  6.84   9-04  60  30%  VO? 46/78 45/78
  2.06 DT  Amos Wilkerson        5.7 6.2 4.87  35  31  7.41   7-07  --  23%  UR  24/60 28/60
  3.06 RG  Maurice Donhoff       5.4 5.1 5.11  17  33  7.62   8-07  --  14%  NA  23/55 27/58
  4.06 QB  Bill Wilkins          4.9 5.6 4.80  41  13  7.56   8-04  54  17%  NA  11/54 16/52
  5.06 FS  Morris Billodeaux     4.0 3.8 4.71  37  10  7.53   8-03  49  39%  NA  18/57 21/48
  6.06 WLB Heath Palm            3.9 3.7 4.60  29  14  7.58   9-02  16  47%  NA  18/32 21/32
  7.06 SLB Pete Reese            3.8 3.6 ----  28  --  ----   ----  36  56%  VO  17/27 18/28
  

So, looks solid at guard where Donhoff is a boom, and we might actually have something in the combine skipper LB, too. Not too bad.

[QuikSand]

2024 Season

Benchmarks:

Roster Rating – 7 (30th)
Cohesion – 52-54-50-53 (last in all)


My predictions:

Lincoln Palermo posts his first sub-1,000 yard season, but leads the team in rushing
Chester Caruso posts roughly 25 TD and 20 Int
Billy Shea posts at least 6 picks in his rookie season, making a rare CB case for DROY
We finish 5-11, slipping from last year’s record, but looking a bit better underneath


Season narrative:

Well, LB Gilbert Wilkerson gets hurt in preseason, and reinjured in our opener, and will miss most of the season. Ouch – on a thin team as is, we really can’t take that.

We do manage to win in week two, and then after two close losses, again in week five. A 2-3 start with only one blowout isn’t that bad.

At 3-7, we lose QB Caruso, and need to call on the rookie, which won’t end well, I’m sure. Wilkins manages 300 yards and a TD in his debut, but it’s on 20-of-44 passing, and boosted by one long breakaway catch, so he’s playing it pretty safe and we lose 17-10.

We coast into the offseason with only 3 total wins – a bit disappointing overall.

Front Office Football 2007
2024 Summary for Tampa Bay Buccaneers
   
Year                2024                                      
Record              3-13                                      
Winning Pct.        .187                                      
All-Time            121-183                                   
Winning Pct.        .398                                      
Playoffs            0-2                                       
Playoff Visits      2                                         
Bowl Wins           0                                         
Head Coach          Matt Curtis                               
Record              9-23                                      
Winning Pct.        .281                                      
Off. Coord.         C. Spencer                                
Def. Coord.         Z. Huntley                                
   
Tampa Bay Buccaneers    Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         25.3      23 (T)      
Rushing Yards           102.6     21          
Yards Per Carry         4.06      15          
Pass Attempts           36.8      5           
Completions             20.6      12          
Completion Pct.         56.1      22          
Passing Yards           264.7     4           
Yards Per Attempt       7.20      10          
Yards Per Catch         12.83     2           
Total Yardage Gained    354.3     5           
3rd Down Conversions    43.6      1 (T)       
Points Per Game         18.0      26          
Pass Rush Pct.          16.9      30          
Pass Defense Pct.       33.9      32          
Turnovers               40        31          
Turnover Margin         -21       32          
   
Opponents               Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         32.1      31          
Rushing Yards           134.1     29 (T)      
Yards Per Carry         4.18      22          
Pass Attempts           28.8      1           
Completions             19.1      8           
Completion Pct.         66.5      32          
Passing Yards           232.4     23          
Yards Per Attempt       8.08      32          
Yards Per Catch         12.15     31          
Total Yardage Gained    359.1     31          
3rd Down Conversions    44.3      30 (T)      
Points Per Game         27.8      32          
Pass Rush Pct.          19.9      14          
Pass Defense Pct.       66.3      27          
Turnovers               19        31 (T)      
   
Week  Team  Versus        Oppnt  
1     18    at NOS        34      
2     19    at KCY        17      
3     22    at MIN        24      
4     17    at WAS        21      
5     31    DAL           17      
6     14    at ATL        31      
7     0     PHI           13      
9     17    at NYK        31      
10    37    NOS           31      
11    15    CAR           34      
12    10    SDO           17      
13    10    SEA           37      
14    7     at DEN        27      
15    27    ATL           35      
16    27    OAK           45      
17    17    at CAR        31      
   
Passing                 Pos   Att   Comp  Yards Y/Att TD    Int   Rate  
14 C. Caruso            QB    429   253   3294  7.68  22    19    81.8    
3 B. Wilkins            QB    156   76    938   6.01  5     5     65.0    
**Team                  ---   588   330   4235  7.20  27    25    76.4    
$$Opp                   ---   460   306   3719  8.08  29    10    103.1   
   
Rushing                 Pos   Att   Yards Y/Att TD    Fum  
21 L. Palermo           RB    211   871   4.13  3     6       
5 J. Hoffman            RB    137   575   4.20  2     8       
14 C. Caruso            QB    33    141   4.27  0     3       
**Team                  ---   404   1642  4.06  5     25      
$$Opp                   ---   514   2146  4.18  22    23      
   
Receiving               Pos   Targ  Catch Yards Y/Ctc Y/Tar Drop  TD  
81 M. Hevey             WR    167   94    1572  16.72 9.41  6     7       
88 J. Stuart            WR    124   66    880   13.33 7.10  14    5       
86 R. Richmond          WR    95    54    702   13.00 7.39  7     6       
18 W. Dickens           WR    77    44    493   11.20 6.40  1     1       
85 J. Atwell            TE    47    23    269   11.70 5.72  2     3       
21 L. Palermo           RB    26    20    140   7.00  5.38  2     3       
   
Defense                 Pos   Tack  Asst  Sack  Hurr  Ints  Defn  PDPct  
94 M. Quinn             ILB   127   23    1.0   0     1     4     69.8    
25 P. Woods             S     108   41    0.0   1     1     4     76.0    
91 M. Busby             DT    52    13    3.0   2     0     0     82.1    
48 B. Shea              CB    49    11    0.0   0     0     10    73.7    
53 J. Marcheck          ILB   47    9     0.0   0     1     3     76.1    
33 C. Kemnitzer         CB    47    12    0.0   1     1     4     71.8    
57 P. Reese             OLB   46    21    1.0   2     1     3     75.3    
99 B. Bolsins           DE    45    13    2.5   10    0     0     82.2    
98 A. Ingram            DE    43    19    2.0   13    0     0     82.5    
59 D. Mathews           OLB   35    10    4.0   10    0     0     79.9    
40 L. Sawyer            CB    32    10    0.0   0     1     2     73.8    
38 M. Billodeaux        S     29    17    0.0   0     1     3     77.7    
50 D. Weintraub         ILB   28    13    0.0   0     0     1     73.8   

So, a little disappointing in the W/L margin, but not a shocking season.

A –21 turnover margin is a mark of a very young team – tough to win many with a mark like that, I expect.

[QuikSand]

2024 Coda:

My late-season reneg is to add another year onto the deal for RT O’Neil – not terribly exciting, but I didn’t have a lot of options.

At season’s end, we are nearly shut out from league honors once again – but WR Melvin Hevey manages to pull down second team mention for his outstanding 1572-yard season. That’s all we get, and deserve.

I think the thing to do here is sit on the offense more, rein in the passes, and try to control the game better on offense that way. We’ll see what happens with personnel – we’ll surely lose WR Stuart, and I’m not sure if we really have three quality WRs for a downfield-first attack.

We’re on our way. Before long, we will start shedding all these hanger-on players, and will be fully under the rules that I really have in mind. Building is always interesting to me – what I hope is that this team is still interesting to play five more seasons down the road.

[QuikSand]

2025 offseason

Okay, two years deep, the team is starting to take shape. I think we are going to try to get more conservative on offense this season, and try to keep a little of the pressure off the defensive side of the ball. This is the last year of QB Chester Caruso’s current contract – and we probably have a reckoning coming up fairly soon with him. He’s a 9th year guy, so he probably has another few good ones in him – but would we prefer to go young there as this team is building, so we have “our guy” in place once we arrive? Or is Caruso our guy? Candidly, I don’t think he’s ideally suited to the short passing game, so I’m open to moving on at QB either this year or next.

Interestingly – we have no retirements. That means that WR jake Stuart is indeed back for a third year with us. He’s obviously going to drop off in ratings soon (in camp), and he was not very efficient last season – 880 yards, but on only 7.1 yards per target. I suspect he is on our “bubble” for this season, possibly depending on whether we bring aboard a new starter-ready player there.


I bring in a new coach (better in staving off injuries, a big deal for this thin a team) and a new scout (weakness is at OL, where we are pretty well off now) – and we are ready to get into the material evaluation of our situation. I want to take a few minutes and walk through things as they stand. I’ll use the scouting changes as free agency begins as a way to talk about each position group, and also to see how development is coming along with our younger players.

[QuikSand]

Tampa Bay Player Report (TB 2025a - TB 2025b)

Name	Pos	Team	TB 2025a Current	TB 2025a Future	TB 2025b Current	TB 2025b Future	Overall Current Change	Overall Future Change
Caruso, Chester	QB	Tampa	51	51	50 (-1)	50 (-1)	-1	-1
Jacobs, Glenn	QB	Tampa	20	31	19 (-1)	28 (-3)	-1	-3
Keane, Peter	QB	Tampa	6	19	7 (1)	20 (1)	1	1
Wilkins, Bill	QB	Tampa	25	52	24 (-1)	49 (-3)	-1	-3
Duncan, Trevor	RB	Tampa	14	17	15 (1)	17 (0)	1	0
Hoffman, Jackie	RB	Tampa	14	21	14 (0)	21 (0)	0	0
Palermo, Lincoln	RB	Tampa	40	40	40 (0)	40 (0)	0	0
Dole, Emmanuel	FB	Tampa	17	24	16 (-1)	21 (-3)	-1	-3
Horowitz, Jimmie	FB	Tampa	12	16	13 (1)	17 (1)	1	1
Atwell, J.C.	TE	Tampa	40	40	40 (0)	40 (0)	0	0
Jamieson, Tommy	TE	Tampa	13	18	15 (2)	18 (0)	2	0
Dickens, Warren	FL	Tampa	44	45	40 (-4)	43 (-2)	-4	-2
Hevey, Melvin	FL	Tampa	56	56	55 (-1)	55 (-1)	-1	-1
Richmond, Rich	SE	Tampa	23	34	21 (-2)	30 (-4)	-2	-4
Stuart, Jake	SE	Tampa	36	36	36 (0)	36 (0)	0	0
Brennan, Phil	C	Tampa	43	54	43 (0)	54 (0)	0	0
Donhoff, Maurice	LG	Tampa	31	59	33 (2)	61 (2)	2	2
Grant, Tyrell	LG	Tampa	13	25	13 (0)	25 (0)	0	0
Thierry, Jack	LG	Tampa	18	24	20 (2)	25 (1)	2	1
Bell, Kenny	RG	Tampa	58	58	58 (0)	58 (0)	0	0
Pruett, Junior	LT	Tampa	49	57	47 (-2)	56 (-1)	-2	-1
Cooper, Carlton	K	Tampa	31	31	31 (0)	31 (0)	0	0
Collier, Colin	P	Tampa	35	45	41 (6)	49 (4)	6	4
Henson, Nolan	LDE	Tampa	10	15	9 (-1)	13 (-2)	-1	-2
Ingram, Arnold	LDE	Tampa	74	74	76 (2)	76 (2)	2	2
Busby, Mitch	NT	Tampa	45	45	45 (0)	45 (0)	0	0
Wilkerson, Amos	NT	Tampa	32	60	32 (0)	60 (0)	0	0
Bolsins, Bo	RDE	Tampa	42	54	45 (3)	57 (3)	3	3
Tovar, Frank	RDE	Tampa	13	19	14 (1)	20 (1)	1	1
Hubbard, Van	SLB	Tampa	9	16	9 (0)	16 (0)	0	0
Reese, Pete	SLB	Tampa	22	28	23 (1)	29 (1)	1	1
Wilkerson, Gilbert	SILB	Tampa	53	53	54 (1)	54 (1)	1	1
Marcheck, Jesse	WILB	Tampa	15	25	17 (2)	26 (1)	2	1
Quinn, Mack	WILB	Tampa	51	51	50 (-1)	50 (-1)	-1	-1
Weintraub, Daryl	MLB	Tampa	11	25	10 (-1)	20 (-5)	-1	-5
Mathews, Donovan	WLB	Tampa	33	33	32 (-1)	32 (-1)	-1	-1
Palm, Heath	WLB	Tampa	21	32	21 (0)	32 (0)	0	0
Sawyer, Louie	LCB	Tampa	53	53	53 (0)	53 (0)	0	0
Shea, Billy	LCB	Tampa	59	78	58 (-1)	78 (0)	-1	0
Blythe, Jessie	RCB	Tampa	32	45	30 (-2)	39 (-6)	-2	-6
Kemnitzer, Chuck	RCB	Tampa	61	61	64 (3)	64 (3)	3	3
Biru, Ronnie	SS	Tampa	14	24	16 (2)	26 (2)	2	2
Kaplan, Terrance	SS	Tampa	18	21	20 (2)	24 (3)	2	3
Woods, Paul	SS	Tampa	52	52	53 (1)	53 (1)	1	1
Billodeaux, Morris	FS	Tampa	25	48	24 (-1)	43 (-5)	-1	-5
Martin, Van	FS	Tampa	18	31	17 (-1)	28 (-3)	-1	-3
Sanderson, Greg	FS	Tampa	15	30	15 (0)	29 (-1)	0	-1

[QuikSand]

Quarterback – Caruso solid veteran, Wilkins standard slipping youngster. Need = HIGH
Running back – Palermo passable veteran unsigned, nothing special elsewhere. Need = HIGH
Fullback – Nobody on roster has any real future. Need = HIGH, but urgency low
Tight End – Atwell passable veteran but sliding. Need = HIGH, but urgency low
Wide Receiver – Hevey very good, two young supporting guys solid. Need = HIGH
Interior Linemen – Donhoff developing, Bell solid, C Brennan marginal. Need = LOW
Offensive Tackles – Pruett is okay, O’Neil not shown but solid. Depth a need. Need = MEDIUM
Defensive Line – Ingram and Bolsins look great, DT mix solid. Need = LOW
Inside Linebackers – Wilkerson and Quinn solid starters, Marcheck shaky depth. Need = LOW
Outside Linebackers – Mathews adequate starter, Palm and Reese low-end. Need = HIGH
Cornerback – Two good young starters, very good bench, position looks great. Need = NONE
Safety – Woods okay veteran, Kaplan growing but angry, Bilodeaux hurt. Need – MEDIUM

Overall – my top needs for good, young players would be at QB, WR, and OLB. We have several areas where upgrades would be very welcome, but we are sitting at #2 overall in this draft and I’m thinking this is our chance to land our QB of the future. If that fails, we may look to once again move down and pick up some extra picks so we can again inch a bit closer to having a truly legitimate roster.


Okay, I have a look around at the free agent market, and start making my plans. Since we are basically past the period of suffering from the effects of the initial player cuts to clear out the roster, affordability is really zero concern this year. If we wanted to, we could spend very liberally right away. I could see that making sense if there were an impact player at, say, WR or RB who could make a major difference for us.

The obvious move with our early season renegotiation would be to extend QB Caruso, whose deal ends after this season. But I am fixated on the combine-skipper monster QB in this draft, and I really think that the uber-RB might go at #1, meaning we can stay put at pick #2 and get the star QB we really need. So, I instead decide to try to work out a long term deal with out top young DE Arnold Ingram, to lock him up for a long term deal now, rather than waiting until his rookie contract ends.

Well, my top FA target becomes really easy to spot – 5th year WR Jeff Deberry is rated 62/62 by my scout, and has excellent skill in getting downfield – he looks like a perfect candidate to come aboard and starts for us at split end. This guy looks like a serious impact player, and a perfect fit for our offense. He is looking for a 4yr contract, so I’ll try to work with that timeframe too – that seems to be the best way to go after a guy we really really want.

Reneg – DE Arnold Ingram – 5yrs, $59m extension, now signed through 2029
1YR -
2YR –
3YR – DE Randal Franklin, $4.8m
4YR – WR Jeff Deberry, $40m (8m bonus, even salary)
5YR – LB Drew Leal, $35.5m (7.5m bonus, dummy year at end)
6YR – SS Roy Fritz, $64m (12m bonus, one dummy year at end)
7YR – RB Rico Everett, $66.3m (basically three cheap years)

My thinking here is to leave the 1 and 2 year free agent contracts unused in these early stages, and try to pick up a 2nd or 3rd year player with them after the draft – where I will have a guy I can re-sign as a RFA for at least one extra year. Always shooting the angles, I am. My fallback position would be to re-sign RB Palermo, even though I think that our new pursuit Everett is a better fit for us, and is definitely younger.

We have to up our bonus amount to get WR Deberry, but he finally agrees, as does everyone else pretty much without incident or much competition. S Roy Fritz looks to be a pretty serious impact player for us, too. LB Leal projects as our SLB starter, and also becomes a pretty solid chemistry anchor for us too (I seemingly just can’t help myself).

[QuikSand]

2025 draft

Sitting at pick 2, I am drooling over the top QB here. Archie Downs from LSU has near-topped ratings in most everything, and my scout said that was conservative (UR). He tested 47, but skipped the combine. He is #1 on the “big board” behind a monster RB, whom I obviously hope goes #1. There are two standout receivers in this draft, but if the QB goes at #1, my guess is we can trade down a few slots and still nab one of them to bring along.

1. Baltimore - Downs, Archie, QB, Louisiana State

Well okay then, that ends that. Should have seen it coming, actually. We trade down from 2 to 5, and pick up Pittsburgh’s next three picks in the swap – so we will again have a chance to really fill in some gaps in the roster here. Turns out both WRs are still available when we select – but I’m limited to my one trade, and I already made it. So we grab our guy.

Pick Pos Name                  Grd Adj Dash  ST  BP  Agil  Bjump  PS  Dev  O/U Pre   Post
1.05 WR  Bryant Czyz           6.3 6.6 4.44  38  19  6.74   9-01  70  22%  AS  42/75 
2.01 SLB Devin Winfield (SILB) 5.5 5.3 4.70  33  21  7.07   8-11  30  35%  VU  22/62 
2.05 DE  Edwin Blackburn       5.4 5.9 4.79  23  29  7.32   9-03  --  54%  VU  28/33 
3.02 RG  Shannon Madison       5.4 5.1 5.14  30  27  7.78   8-01  --  38%  NA  29/58 
3.05 WR  Kendrick Lindsay      4.8 5.0 4.42  24  13  6.96   9-00  57  28%  VU  20/28 
4.01 FB  Kent Raven            5.1 4.1 4.77  20  23  7.20   9-04  33  25%  NA  27/53 
4.05 TE  Chester Kanell        5.0 4.4 4.80  39  25  7.63   9-00  38  22%  NA  23/58 
5.02 RB  Albert Newton         4.7 5.0 4.73  27  16  7.22   9-05  15  41%  NA  31/47 
6.01 FB  Pat Copeland (TE)     4.4 3.6 4.79  25  25  7.51   8-10  29  21%  NA  15/47 
7.02 DT  Walter Upshaw         4.0 4.3 4.94  25  35  8.41   8-04  --  38%  NA  29/36 

My thinking at LB here is that Winfield looks like a solid run-stopper, so he will go inside, and we will probably move our veteran Gilbert Wilkerson to the weak-side pass rusher slot, where he could be a serious impact player. DE Blackburn just seemed like too much value to pass up, at a tough position to fill.

G Madison and WR Lindsay both look like they have starter potential, though I don’t know where WR Lindsay is going to get playing time – he figures as maybe our #5 or #6 guy for this year.

After that, a parade of semi-skill position players, as we fill up the FB and TE contingent pretty quickly here. RB Albert Newton looks like a standard utility-back for a short-passing offense, as he can pick up blitzes, make something happen on a short pass, and maybe carry the ball a bit. DT Walter Upshaw just seemed like gold at the end of the draft, with good combine scores saying he may have a real future as a pass rusher.

Including all our rookies, we are at 42 players – so fulfilling my pledge, I’m only re-signing RFAs to get us up to 46. That means a fair number of guys will be gone. Plus, we still have two of our contracts that may be signed, so I’m getting closer and closer to playing fully within my intended rules now. I do decide it’s time to let go of WR Jake Stuart – he was likely just to impede the playing time of one of our younger players anyhow in the #2 SE role, and he’s just not a great fit for the short-passing offense we plan to rig up this year.

My two-year FA contract goes to speed-back Todd reed, a surprising castoff who looks to have some skills, but did admittedly only post about 2.4 yards per carry in limited duty last season. C Jamie Downs gives us a pretty usable interior lineman (possibly a starter for us) and an affinity, and he gets our one year offer. Our RFA re-signings are QB Glenn Jacobs, SS Terrance Kaplan, and our incumbent punter and kicker.

With that, we are to 47 players (with S Billodeaux heading to injured reserve) and I pretty much feel like we have our roster pretty adequately covered. We really did fill in just about everywhere this year, and I don’t think we have a single slot where we don’t have installed a decent veteran or a rookie about whom I’m hopeful.

[QuikSand]

2025 training camp

I’m just going to post the highlight segment, for simplicity’s sake:

Top Ten Most Likely Busts:

Name                          Team             Pos	Change
Wilkerson, Gilbert            Tampa            WLB	-12
Downs, Jamie                  Tampa            C	-9
Quinn, Mack                   Tampa            WILB	-9
Atwell, J.C.                  Tampa            TE	-7
Winfield, Devin               Tampa            SILB	-7
Pruett, Junior                Tampa            LT	-6
Kanell, Chester               Tampa            TE	-5
Copeland, Pat                 Tampa            TE	-4
Madison, Shannon              Tampa            RG	-3
Raven, Kent                   Tampa            FB	-1


Top Ten Most Likely Breakouts:

Name                          Team             Pos	Change
Dickens, Warren               Tampa            FL	9
Lindsay, Kendrick             Tampa            SE	7
Blackburn, Edwin              Tampa            RDE	5
Richmond, Rich                Tampa            SE	4
Caruso, Chester               Tampa            QB	2
Billodeaux, Morris            Tampa            FS	2
Upshaw, Walter                Tampa            NT	1
Busby, Mitch                  Tampa            NT	1
Cooper, Carlton               Tampa            K	1
Bolsins, Bo                   Tampa            RDE	0

So, we get a big jump out of our 3rd round WR Lindsay, and also from Dickens and Richmond, making our WR position a complete embarrassment of riches. WR Czyz was a –1 in camp, biot great, but he still looks like a major star in the making to me. DE Blackburn jumped up, as I expected.

The big drop from LB Wilkerson is troubling, but he’s basically here for two more seasons and that’s it anyhow. Seeing the rookie Winfield drop 7 points is very disappointing – I thought I was landing a future 100-tackle guy there, but I guess not. G Madison was a guy I expected to bump, too, but he disappointed too.

Well – we will certainly have a lot around QB Caruso to make this passing attack work this year. We even have a whole new cadre of backfield mates for him, with more skill than we’ve ever had there before.

[QuikSand]

2025 season

Benchmarks:

Roster Rating – 72 (11th) <-- wow
Cohesion – 62-65-61-61 (bottom quartile in all, but not dead last in anything)


My predictions:

Chester Caruso posts roughly 25 TD and 15 Int
Our pass rush elevates to being above league average, maybe a PR% of 22
We post 7 wins and actually look like a pretty competitive team


Season narrative:

We start off with two close games, a 1-1 split, but with Caruso posting 5 TDs to zero picks. We get to 3-2, but lose WR Czyz to a knee injury – just for a few weeks, fortunately. At the halfway point, we are a solid 4-4, and our controlled passing gameplan is working really just the way we wanted it to – not prolific yardage, but we’re moving the chains pretty well.

When we get to 7-5, it is time to start thinking about the playoffs. And at 9-5, it’s time to start thinking about playoff seeding. We have a 2-game lead in our weak division, but almost no shot at a bye week. Regardless, the managed-pass offense is treating us very well in terms of keeping games in check, not so much for generating big stats (WR Hevey’s on target to land under 1,00 yards, after approaching 1,600 last season).

We slip up and lose our last two games – that drops us to 9-7 on the season, but that’s still good enough to crown ourselves division champs. Here’s the regular season summary:

Front Office Football 2007
2025 Summary for Tampa Bay Buccaneers
   
Year                2025                                      
Record              9-7                                       
Winning Pct.        .562                                      
All-Time            130-190                                   
Winning Pct.        .406                                      
Playoffs            0-2                                       
Playoff Visits      3                                         
Bowl Wins           0                                         
Head Coach          Carlos Browning                           
Record              9-7                                       
Winning Pct.        .562                                      
Off. Coord.         C. Spencer                                
Def. Coord.         Z. Huntley                                
   
Tampa Bay Buccaneers    Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         29.3      8           
Rushing Yards           125.3     7           
Yards Per Carry         4.28      7           
Pass Attempts           32.6      21          
Completions             23.3      4           
Completion Pct.         71.6      1           
Passing Yards           219.7     22          
Yards Per Attempt       6.75      20 (T)      
Yards Per Catch         9.42      31          
Total Yardage Gained    333.6     12          
3rd Down Conversions    47.6      1 (T)       
Points Per Game         19.6      23          
Pass Rush Pct.          19.3      22 (T)      
Pass Defense Pct.       38.6      28          
Turnovers               17        3           
Turnover Margin         +11       4           
   
Opponents               Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         27.9      21          
Rushing Yards           103.1     8           
Yards Per Carry         3.69      3           
Pass Attempts           29.4      1 (T)       
Completions             19.8      9           
Completion Pct.         67.3      30          
Passing Yards           223.6     14 (T)      
Yards Per Attempt       7.60      30          
Yards Per Catch         11.29     19          
Total Yardage Gained    310.8     10          
3rd Down Conversions    41.8      23          
Points Per Game         20.7      12 (T)      
Pass Rush Pct.          15.1      1           
Pass Defense Pct.       27.1      1           
Turnovers               28        16 (T)      
   
Week  Team  Versus        Oppnt  
1     24    at ATL        27      
2     23    MIA           20      
3     7     GBY           37      
4     20    ARI           0       
5     24    SFO           10      
6     23    at STL        31      
8     17    at SEA        7       
9     14    at NOS        28      
10    27    ATL           21      
11    24    at CAR        35      
12    24    at NYJ        20      
13    23    at DAL        10      
14    16    BUF           10      
15    16    CAR           13      
16    3     at NED        31      
17    29    NOS           31      
$$WC        SEA                   
   
Passing                 Pos   Att   Comp  Yards Y/Att TD    Int   Rate  
14 C. Caruso            QB    499   363   3373  6.76  19    7     97.7    
**Team                  ---   521   373   3515  6.75  21    8     96.9    
$$Opp                   ---   471   317   3578  7.60  26    16    94.1    
   
Rushing                 Pos   Att   Yards Y/Att TD    Fum  
39 R. Everett           RB    211   970   4.60  7     5       
35 A. Newton            RB    112   461   4.12  2     3       
24 T. Reed              RB    82    321   3.91  0     3       
14 C. Caruso            QB    53    222   4.19  1     6       
**Team                  ---   469   2005  4.28  10    29      
$$Opp                   ---   447   1650  3.69  12    25      
   
Receiving               Pos   Targ  Catch Yards Y/Ctc Y/Tar Drop  TD  
8 B. Czyz               WR    98    71    718   10.11 7.33  2     6       
81 M. Hevey             WR    90    63    719   11.41 7.99  2     0       
18 W. Dickens           WR    72    48    591   12.31 8.21  5     1       
89 K. Lindsay           WR    67    46    459   9.98  6.85  5     6       
43 K. Raven             FB    38    29    144   4.97  3.79  3     2       
39 R. Everett           RB    25    22    113   5.14  4.52  1     1       
24 T. Reed              RB    19    18    142   7.89  7.47  0     2       
37 P. Copeland          TE    21    18    123   6.83  5.86  0     1       
83 J. Deberry           WR    32    17    261   15.35 8.16  1     2       
82 C. Kanell            TE    26    17    95    5.59  3.65  0     0       
   
Defense                 Pos   Tack  Asst  Sack  Hurr  Ints  Defn  PDPct  
34 R. Fritz             S     80    29    1.0   0     1     5     75.7    
51 D. Leal              OLB   79    29    3.0   1     1     3     72.5    
95 D. Winfield          ILB   77    34    2.0   1     1     1     77.1    
25 P. Woods             S     71    32    0.0   0     1     2     75.9    
48 B. Shea              CB    60    10    0.0   0     8     8     80.4    
98 A. Ingram            DE    53    18    8.5   9     0     0     82.0    
33 C. Kemnitzer         CB    51    6     0.0   1     2     7     72.4    
91 M. Busby             DT    42    17    5.5   7     0     1     82.8    
99 B. Bolsins           DE    42    16    5.5   8     0     0     81.9    
93 G. Wilkerson         OLB   38    20    9.0   23    0     0     79.1    
40 L. Sawyer            CB    31    14    0.0   0     0     0     71.0    
94 M. Quinn             ILB   28    11    0.0   2     2     2     84.3    
59 D. Mathews           ILB   28    11    0.0   0     0     0     74.2    
90 A. Wilkerson         DT    19    17    2.5   1     0     0     81.8    
36 T. Kaplan            S     17    9     0.0   0     0     1     74.2   

Well, we fell short of my two stat predictions – we were a bit less effective with the passing game that I had hoped, especially in the late season (when Deberry got hurt). We’ll take a 98 passer rating overall, but I think we should be looking for bigger numbers in the pass attack all things considered – 3600 yards isn’t very eye-opening.

The defense was okay, but giving up 7.6 yards per pass attempt means we really have work to do. The pass rush just isn’t there yet, despite some pretty solid talent at the DE slots. We’re not generating a lot of hurries to go with a fair number of sacks. Wilkerson was good at the rushbacker slot, but overall we fell short of my hopes there. CB Shea has juicy red bars, but might not have the killer instinct – two pretty pedestrian seasons from him.

Postseason Narrative:

In the postseason, we manage to crush our opening opponents 27-6 to advance to the divisional round, but we then have a flu outbreak and have about 15 players questionable. WE play a tough game at the Giants, but lose when our late possession gets us into territory to set up a late FG to take the lead, but instead our WR fumbles, they take over, and they make the late drive for the go-ahead FG instead to win 20-17. Alas.

The Giants go on to win the championship with pretty easy wins in their final two games. We gave them their toughest matchup of the playoffs.

We are left out of the season awards again this year.

With our late season renegotiation, I decide that it makes the most sense to offer a new deal to CB Kemnitzer. Yes, this leaves us potentially without QB Caruso next year, but Kemnitzer was going to be without a contract, too, and he looks to me like the real thing. I like not feeling like I have any worry at CB, and Shea and Kemnitzer give me that feeling. Hopefully they will begin earning their fat paychecks before too long as well.

[QuikSand]

2026 offseason

Okay, I feel like this team is finally pretty much “together.” Our QB is out of contract, but overall, we have credible players at every position, and have elevated our overall roster rating from the near-zero range up to the upper half of the league. But for our dreadful cohesion, we might actually be a threat in this league, I think.

What I’m hoping now, or maybe next season, is that the more challenging aspects of this whole concept come together. Thus far, nearly all the players I have signed to longer term deals are still with us, or will be as long as I want them. In the next couple of seasons, that will cease to be true – we’ll see my initial URFAs fade off after this year unless I desire to give them real contracts (unlikely) and my ability to fill the roster through easy means will be pretty substantially limited. That’s what I’m looking for – I want pressure to make every draft pick count, every contract decision matter, and for every renegotiation opportunity to be precious.


We mostly avoid the retirement axe again this year – TE Atwell is gone, but he was a short-timer for us anyhow, and after drafting two TEs last season, he was a potential cut anyway. So, we have 37 players signed to start things off for this year – add in 7 draft picks and a smattering of new FA faces, and we ought to have our first season with the luxury of holding players inactive. We are on our way toward actually carrying a full, legitimate roster.


An interesting twist awaits us now…. QB Chester Caruso has developed a case of arthritis, and shows up as “doubtful” in the injury report as a free agent. So, I was on the fence about re-signing him as it is, but now the plot has thickened – he might be even be available if we wanted him, but it’s possible that the injury drives hid price down, too.

Reneg – DE Bo Bolsins, 4yr $23.6m
1YR -
2YR -
3YR – QB O.J. Turnbull, $4.1m
4YR – WR Warren Dickens, $15m
5YR –
6YR – RT Kevin Coleman, $121.5m (3m bonus, essentially 3yrs $10.5m)
7YR –

I see QB Turnbull as a cheap minsal guy we could use in a pinch in a short-passing offense, and it is nice to have a cheap option at QB. He wasn’t going past three years, but in a very weak QB crop this year (Caruso is the top rated guy available) I think Turnbull is a decent option even with his very uneven skills.

I use one of my free-signing slots to work out a new longer deal with WR Dickens, and use a long term slot on a veteran tackle who will be a solid #3 OT and affinity leader for us. I think there is a salary crunch coming before too long, and I don’t want to get caught unloading valuable players, so I’m not making a huge splash here in free agency.

I’ll again leave a few slots open for possible pickups after the restricted FAs get cut loose.


I wrap up free agency with 46 players signed to contracts. If we sign seven rookies, we will have to make cuts to do any more FA signings. I can live with that.

[QuikSand]

2026 draft

With a team that really no longer has any **huge** gaping holes, I’m a bit more at liberty to be looking for impact players wherever I can find them. I guess our LB corps is an obvious area of need overall, as we have a number of older players in starting roles there, and you one key youngster might not be as good as we had hoped. The OL situation is more stable for the immediate future, but a solid LT would be a good addition for us as I don’t know I want to commit long term to Junior Pruett there. I also would like very much to land a promising young QB for this team to add some stability there.

We don’t have the top-ten pick this go-round, so probably no easy way to manufacture extra picks –not that I want them anyway any longer. We pick at 1.22, and inch upward each round afterward… so all middle picks, basically. We’ll see what falls to us.

I interviewed maybe 20 QBs for this draft – and not one remains at pick 22 who looks worth a damn. Oh well. At pick 22, I’m mostly looking at a few linebackers as what would be my top choices, and I’m less than inspired, to be honest. I explore a trade-down, but there’s no value in that, obviously. So, I’m back to LB, and torn between a six-blue combine guy who probably develops into a solid all-around type, and a two-red guy who looks like he can play the run and rush the passer, but with little peripheral skill. Both seem like defensible picks here, I’d actually like to work out a deal-down and take them both, but I decide to go for the across-the-board fella.

Pick Pos Name                  Grd Adj Dash  ST  BP  Agil  Bjump  PS  Dev  O/U Pre   Post
1.22 SLB Kelley Chancey (WILB) 6.0 5.8 4.59  33  21  7.17   9-11  37  48%  HTR 29/51
2.21 C   Bart Rodgers (RG)     6.0 5.2 5.12  39  34  7.69   8-10  --  13%  VU  27/58
3.20 SLB Darnell Abercrombie   4.4 4.3 5.00  36  20  7.66   9-01  34  27%  VU  16/55
4.19 RT  Brendan Raber         4.7 5.2 5.15  29  24  7.70   7-08  --  38%  OR  17/39 
5.18 CB  Zack Wilkerson (FS)   4.3 4.4 4.44  27   9  7.04   8-11  46  20%  NA  13/45
6.17 QB  Tito Daylo            4.3 4.9 4.77  32  12  8.22   8-04  87  13%  VO   9/45 
7.16 WLB Darrell Caldwell      4.1 3.9 4.63  27  10  7.40   8-05  28  44%  NA  16/38 

So, I decided to move the standout center to RG, where he lost a bit of his ratings, but still looks pretty solid to me. Centers are pretty easy to come by, so drafting a guy with the requisite heft to move to G usually makes a good investment. I’m also hopeful that we might have a future starter for our Sam backer slot in Abercrombie. RT Raber had a good enough combine to get me to look past the bas scout assessment. Rest are basically flyers.


Since I didn’t make any draft trades, I can accept an AI-offered trade if I like – and we have one in hand. It’s only a 6th round pick for QB Bill Wilkins, and I don’t know that’s worth much. I expect to decline this one, I think Wilkins stands a very good chance of being our #2 QB this season, assuming we don’t buckle under and re-sign the injured Caruso from the FA pile (he’s asking for big bucks, incidentally, which along with the injury and his age generally makes him pretty unattractive to me and most teams, it seems).



I think I see the answer for us at QB, at least short term. Kendell Beason is an 11th year QB, rated 48/48 overall, and coming off an injury-shortened season. But he seems to have great short passing skills, very well suited for the system I’m planning to run this season. Plus, he’s a mentor and knows 18 formations – all a good fit. We have cap space, so I want to try to work out a five year deal with him if I can (we’ve used the sweet spots of 3 and 4 years). If not, I’ll settle for two pretty good years and deal with it later.

Turns out five years is a non-starter for him, so we put in 2yrs, $10m and will bump if needed to land him. I expect him to start for us, and hopefully fit in well right away.

We still have a few of our FA slots remaining, so I look to make some moves there. The obvious thing to do with a 1 year deal is go after younger players, so I will be looking there primarily for both the 1-year and the 5-year slot if I can fit anyone into the latter.


Given that I am moving on a QB in free agency, and would be carrying five guys there anyhow, I decide to accept the 6th rounder for Bill Wilkins after all. We are deep enough that if we were in a spot to be playing him, the season would likely be a loss anyway, so I’ll take what I can get.

I end up making a silly offer to a decent veteran strong safety Rico Booker – most of his 5yr deal will be in base salary (around $5m a year) so he’s basically a luxury as long as we can afford him, and mostly wipes off our books once we cannot. He’s a standard four-bar guy, but they are the right bars for work at SS, so he may prove valuable, and can at least play special teams if needed.

For my 1-yr deal, I find an intriguing offensive tackle Julio Cronk, a guy who can slide over to play LT I think, and who might be in the mix for a longer deal if he makes that move fairly well.

Of course, I land all three of our late FA targets – no matter how many rules I put into place, I am constantly frustrated at the absolute ease of beating the AI at this stuff. I see QB Beason as a great gamble, and while two other teams made offers, it was child’s play to just ratchet up my bonus to make sure that mine would be the best among them. For a guy like Cronk, he just flies under the radar completely – just like most of the players that I choose. Just once, I’d like to see a bona fide bidding war for a free agent – where I put in my offer and then one of the AI teams making its offers actually responds by bidding higher. There’s just so much more that could be done in this FA system – as I’ve said before, It **could** be one of the best things in the single-player game, but it falls far short of that potential.

[QuikSand]

2026 Training Camp

To get down to 53 players for camp (house rule I’m adopting as of right now) I release LB Donovan Mathews and, alas, SS Terrance Kaplan. We are into camp within $3m of the salary cap – so money issues are likely to be real going forward. I do have some soft salaries on the team that can be vacated by cuts (which is really as it should be) and starting next season, I expect that will be a realistic consideration.

Top Ten Most Likely Busts:

Name                          Team             Pos	Change
Downs, Jamie                  Tampa            C	-7
Reed, Todd                    Tampa            RB	-7
Everett, Rico                 Tampa            RB	-7
Woods, Paul                   Tampa            SS	-6
Wilkerson, Gilbert            Tampa            WLB	-6
Abercrombie, Darnell          Tampa            SLB	-5
Daylo, Tito                   Tampa            QB	-5
Caldwell, Darrell             Tampa            WLB	-4
Bell, Kenny                   Tampa            RG	-4
Coleman, Kevin                Tampa            RT	-4


Top Ten Most Likely Breakouts:

Name                          Team             Pos	Change
Shea, Billy                   Tampa            LCB	6
Rodgers, Bart                 Tampa            RG	6
Billodeaux, Morris            Tampa            FS	1
Beason, Kendall               Tampa            QB	1
Lindsay, Kendrick             Tampa            SE	1
Raber, Brenden                Tampa            RT	1
Brennan, Phil                 Tampa            C	1
Palm, Heath                   Tampa            WLB	1
Franklin, Randal              Tampa            LDE	1
Wilkerson, Zack               Tampa            FS	1

So, I was right about G Rodgers – his boom makes him a future starter for us, which is what we were looking for. CB Shea’s boom is nice, adding a little more value to a prime asset – a guy who we’d like to see deliver some star-caliber stats now, please.

Seeing our top rookie LB off this list is disappointing – until I realize that he belongs on the list after all. Bug, I guess. But he is a +6 in camp, and looks like a solid all-around guy in training. So, two big hits in the rookie class.

Here’s the more detailed revised rookie report:

Pick Pos Name                  Grd Adj Dash  ST  BP  Agil  Bjump  PS  Dev  O/U Pre   Post
1.22 SLB Kelley Chancey (WILB) 6.0 5.8 4.59  33  21  7.17   9-11  37  48%  HTR 29/51 35/57 +6
2.21 C   Bart Rodgers (RG)     6.0 5.2 5.12  39  34  7.69   8-10  --  13%  VU  27/58 31/64 +6
3.20 SLB Darnell Abercrombie   4.4 4.3 5.00  36  20  7.66   9-01  34  27%  VU  16/55 21/50 -5
4.19 RT  Brendan Raber         4.7 5.2 5.15  29  24  7.70   7-08  --  38%  OR  17/39 21/40 +1
5.18 CB  Zack Wilkerson (FS)   4.3 4.4 4.44  27   9  7.04   8-11  46  20%  NA  13/45 18/46 +1
6.17 QB  Tito Daylo            4.3 4.9 4.77  32  12  8.22   8-04  87  13%  VO   9/45 12/40 -5
7.16 WLB Darrell Caldwell      4.1 3.9 4.63  27  10  7.40   8-05  28  44%  NA  16/38 18/34 -4

In other news, RB Rico Everett isn’t listed on the bust list above, but he seems to have lost a step or two. RB Todd Reed (42/42) is pretty clearly to me our best RB option, but the scout like youngster Albert Newton (39/44). Newton is Mr. Inside, Reed Mr. Outside, but I suspect we’ll end up seeing both a lot this year and Everett in a “supporting role.”


So, as we enter a new phase with this team (defined by the QB at least) here is our new signal caller. Yes, he’s an 11th year veteran so this isn’t the future – but he looks like the present.



With him, we sill use a fair number of short passes, I think I will ramp up the use of screens a bit, and also try to redirect the running game a little toward the right side. Not much else in terms of changes – we’ll head into our next season.

[QuikSand]

2025 season

Benchmarks:

Roster Rating – 82 (5th)
Cohesion – 64-67-75-57 (bottom handful on offense, second quartile on defense)


My predictions:

We probably end up with two QBs playing games, and see 20 TD and 15 Ints
I’ll pick a new big numbers guy on defense – Arnold Ingram breaks through with 12 sacks
We struggle to equal last year’s 9 wins, but look better on D at least


Season narrative:

Well, we open with the sort of win that I’m really hoping for – a 16-10 final, we hang three second half FGs to take it, and control the ball with 74% passing and get a lot of QB pressure. Beason has 4 picks in week two, as we lose a close one – this might be a problem that undermines our controlled pass attack, if we’re getting picked too much.

Through four games, we are 1-3, with a PF/PA differential of 57/64… we are playing close games and losing. Beason has a ratio of 4/9, and we are –8 in turnovers. This is trouble.

Then – we get our act together. Three good wins, and Beason’s ratio is suddenly up to 12/9, and we are above .500 again. We lose two games in a row later on, and slip to 6-5 – our division is a total toss up at this point, we’re in a 3-way tie for the lead with NO just a game behind. We split two games, but so does everyone else in the division.

A late season loss to New Orleans hurts a lot, and put them into the division driver’s seat. We win to get back to 8-7, and the good news is that 9-7 is surely worth a wild card if we can beat 8-7 Atlanta in our last game. We’re back to the week one strategy – and pick up a 17-10 win to secure another postseason berth. Pretty much the season I expected.

Front Office Football 2007
2026 Summary for Tampa Bay Buccaneers
   
Year                2026                                      
Record              9-7                                       
Winning Pct.        .562                                      
All-Time            139-197                                   
Winning Pct.        .413                                      
Playoffs            1-3                                       
Playoff Visits      4                                         
Bowl Wins           0                                         
Head Coach          Carlos Browning                           
Record              19-15                                     
Winning Pct.        .558                                      
Off. Coord.         C. Spencer                                
Def. Coord.         Z. Huntley                                
   
Tampa Bay Buccaneers    Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         27.5      15 (T)      
Rushing Yards           122.1     10          
Yards Per Carry         4.44      9           
Pass Attempts           34.8      16          
Completions             24.2      1           
Completion Pct.         69.6      1           
Passing Yards           252.4     8           
Yards Per Attempt       7.26      9           
Yards Per Catch         10.44     27          
Total Yardage Gained    368.6     3           
3rd Down Conversions    52.5      1           
Points Per Game         24.5      8           
Pass Rush Pct.          21.7      13          
Pass Defense Pct.       44.3      28          
Turnovers               33        27          
Turnover Margin         -16       30          
   
Opponents               Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         26.9      21          
Rushing Yards           102.6     10          
Yards Per Carry         3.81      6           
Pass Attempts           30.2      2           
Completions             19.1      4           
Completion Pct.         63.1      27 (T)      
Passing Yards           211.6     7           
Yards Per Attempt       7.01      22          
Yards Per Catch         11.10     12          
Total Yardage Gained    297.0     4           
3rd Down Conversions    43.4      25          
Points Per Game         22.6      22          
Pass Rush Pct.          15.1      1           
Pass Defense Pct.       37.2      5           
Turnovers               17        32          
   
Week  Team  Versus        Oppnt  
1     16    CAR           10      
2     17    at BAL        22      
3     14    NYK           16      
4     10    ATL           16      
5     41    at MIN        14      
6     31    at NOS        22      
7     24    at DET        13      
9     35    GBY           31      
10    13    CHI           28      
11    14    at CAR        25      
12    19    at CIN        10      
13    21    at STL        41      
14    41    PIT           28      
15    34    NOS           38      
16    45    CLE           38      
17    17    at ATL        10      
$$WC        at NOS                
   
Passing                 Pos   Att   Comp  Yards Y/Att TD    Int   Rate  
6 K. Beason             QB    556   387   4039  7.26  37    21    96.8    
**Team                  ---   556   387   4039  7.26  37    21    96.8    
$$Opp                   ---   483   305   3385  7.01  24    7     94.4    
   
Rushing                 Pos   Att   Yards Y/Att TD    Fum  
24 T. Reed              RB    288   1376  4.78  5     7       
35 A. Newton            RB    123   475   3.86  3     6       
**Team                  ---   440   1953  4.44  9     23      
$$Opp                   ---   431   1642  3.81  17    22      
   
Receiving               Pos   Targ  Catch Yards Y/Ctc Y/Tar Drop  TD  
8 B. Czyz               WR    126   85    946   11.13 7.51  3     11      
24 T. Reed              RB    83    64    429   6.70  5.17  4     5       
83 J. Deberry           WR    90    62    890   14.35 9.89  4     3       
81 M. Hevey             WR    77    49    595   12.14 7.73  2     5       
43 K. Raven             FB    48    38    283   7.45  5.90  3     3       
89 K. Lindsay           WR    49    31    413   13.32 8.43  1     4       
82 C. Kanell            TE    42    30    267   8.90  6.36  1     5       
   
Defense                 Pos   Tack  Asst  Sack  Hurr  Ints  Defn  PDPct  
32 R. Booker            S     96    30    0.0   1     0     7     73.4    
51 D. Leal              OLB   74    21    3.0   3     1     3     73.9    
34 R. Fritz             S     72    25    3.0   1     1     5     76.2    
95 D. Winfield          ILB   64    23    0.5   1     0     1     72.8    
48 B. Shea              CB    50    17    0.0   0     4     16    84.3    
98 A. Ingram            DE    42    14    9.0   13    0     0     81.9    
99 B. Bolsins           DE    41    15    8.0   17    0     0     81.3    
90 A. Wilkerson         DT    41    15    5.0   5     0     0     81.2    
33 C. Kemnitzer         CB    39    10    0.0   0     0     14    79.9    
93 G. Wilkerson         OLB   38    16    9.0   6     0     1     79.9    
94 M. Quinn             ILB   31    10    0.5   0     0     0     74.7    
50 K. Chancey           ILB   29    14    0.0   0     0     1     77.6    
58 H. Palm              OLB   25    8     3.5   3     0     0     78.1    
40 L. Sawyer            CB    21    9     0.0   0     0     3     78.0    
45 D. Abercrombie       ILB   16    4     0.0   1     0     1     74.1    

So, by total yardage – we’re #3 on offense and #4 on defense. Not bad. We are a real problem in the turnover department, though – we don’t cause enough, and we commit too many. That largely explains why we are a mediocre team with some base stats that suggest better than that.

Really good season for RB Reed – I was afraid he’d be splitting time, but the staff got this one right, it seems. He’s a RFA after this year, so we get one more easy season – after that it’s time to think about a long term deal, perhaps. He may be worth it, and his mixed ratings might keep him affordable – but I’ll take 4.79 yards a carry and 1,800 yards from scrimmage.

It looked like DE Ingram was going to have that huge season I predicted, but he cooled off and suffered some injuries in the second half. We end up with three guys with 8-9 sacks, and the hurries are coming, but next year we need to fill that WLB slot, as Wilkerson is gone baby gone with an exploding contract.

Looks like we did okay with S Booker, who I had in mind for a reserve role, but who came in and played pretty well. Not a coverage star, but he can help with the run – he ought to be getting after the ball a bit better, though. Lb injuries mucked up our defensive front all year, and a really serious keg injury to rookie Chancey has his future in real doubt.

[QuikSand]

Postseason narrative

We put together a great game in our opener, and thrash our division champion Saints to advance, 35-9. Beason is brilliant, and our defense played lights out. We then get the 11-4-1 Bears, and we pound them pretty well, too, 27-13, fueled in part by a big error-free day from Beason again – 319 and 3/0.

We head to the NFC title game, played at 15-2 Dallas, favored by 7. They manage to force the bad side of Beason – as he inverts his ratio this game, and has 3 picks to zero TDs. We lose here, 28-19, and the Cowboys go on to the big game – only to get pasted there by Miami.


My late-season renegotiation is to extend C Phil Brennan. Not that exciting, but he’s been solid and I’m looking to start building some continuity with my younger players along the OL as we start to phase out the original group of veterans.

[QuikSand]

New rule additions

Since I see myself taking advantage already of weaknesses in my original rules, I’m patching on two more rules.

-there can be only one offer made to any target free agent player

Explanation: I don’t like that I can outmaneuver the AI teams so easily – so here, I’ll play with the no-change rule. if I put in a weak offer and get outbid, I should lose, rather than react and win. Presumably, this will squeeze me a bit more as I will go after my target players with either more money, more bonus, or both.

-there can be only one free agent signed during the late FA period

Explanation: I already see myself strategically setting aside FA slots to take advantage of the after-draft cap casualties and unsigned RFAs who become available. Picking are too easy then. I’ll limit myself to one signee during that phase per season.

[QuikSand]

2027 offseason

Okay, this season we are turning the corner. We now are dealing with a full roster, we’re close to the salary cap, and we are at least close to feeling the practical effects of the system of rules that I have in place. The only lingering issue is that I still have a handful of extra draft picks from recent years, resulting from a few trade-down deals. But that will fade, as I don’t expect to see many more such deals opening up for us. We are basically on our way into the “maintenance” part of the challenge, which is always the hard part to keep interesting (for me, at least… if you’re actually reading this then I haven’t a clue what keeps you interested in this sort of dreck).

RG Kenny Bell retired, which is fine – he was out of contract and we have already loaded up the OG slot for his departure. So, no harm done.

The next thing we simply must do is release LB Gilbert Wilkerson. I think of him as my “first” player here, as he was the first guy we inked to a long term deal. But it was a deal with a poison pill at the end, and it came due this year. Cutting him gets us about $30m under the $194m cap, which ought to be enough to sign free agents as we need to.


Here is the math, as I see it, for our number of players:

39 players currently signed to contracts
7 potential FA signees
5 restricted free agents who could be signed for 1yr
7 potential draft picks
--
58 players

Put as simply as possible, that means we have just a little bit of room to move here. And the “challenge” part of the deal kicks in as I realize that we don’t have either a punter or kicker signed to a contract, so most likely that forces our hand with two of our draft picks (or free agent signings, I guess). Oh – we already have one player out for the whole season (LB Kelley Chancey) so the real target would be 54 players.

(I think a couple seasons down the road, this margin will tighten more and more… I have a handful of extra draft picks buoying this tally this year)

At the start of free agency, we get a trade offer for QB OJ Turnbull, my backup. Right now, I don’t have a crunch for signed players, but later on I might. So, this year I can turn down getting a 4th round pick and a backup-quality C for him. At some point, two bodies for one might be an offer I simply can’t refuse.



Okay – planning our roster moves also requires looking at positions. Here’s what I really need to do this offseason:

MUST SIGN – P, K, LB
SHOULD SIGN – RB, CB, TE

Anyway – here is our slate of free agents for this year:

Front Office Football 2007
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Roster, Scout Overview
   
Unrestricted FAs        #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate  Future Estimate Cntrct 
Pruett, Junior          64  LT          5    49                49                ---  
Collier, Colin          16  P           5    46                46                ---  
Blythe, Jessie          46  RCB         5    34                34                ---  
Downs, Jamie            52  C           5    33                33                ---  
Cooper, Carlton         17  K           5    32                32                ---  
Richmond, Rich          86  SE          5    29                29                ---  
Jacobs, Glenn           9   QB          5    26                26                ---  

Restricted FAs          #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate  Future Estimate Cntrct 
Cronk, Julio            75  LT          4    56                56                ---  
Reed, Todd              24  RB          4    43                43                ---  
Reese, Pete             57  SLB         4    31                31                ---  
Billodeaux, Morris      38  FS          4    30                30                ---  
Palm, Heath             58  WLB         4    27                27                ---  

So, we’ll sign up all the RFAs for their final season, and we have seven URFAs to decide on. I don’t really think any of these are special players – I like CB Blythe as a pretty good fit for a backup CB, but his skills are pretty replaceable. Same with WR Richmond.

LT Pruett is probably the toughest case – he’s a very solid pass blocker, and for the LT slot, that has a good deal of value. Also, RFA Julio Cronk is looking for more than $9m per year in his new deal, which I don’t see happening – so Pruett could very easily become our starting LT again after this season. I guess I’ll work out a one year deal with Cronk, but if he thinks he is a top-tier caliber player, then he isn’t going to be getting that kind of coin from us.

Wow… speaking of Cronk, since he now thinks he walks on water, even just the 1yr offer to him will cost us more than $13 million. Holy cow. That’s making LT a bit of a crisis position – I thought I had this all worked out with the two guys (hoping to re-up with Pruett cheaply after Cronk gave us two cheap seasons). Now, I wonder if we might not have to just go fishing for a rookie there.

The other RFAs, mercifuly, are easy signings.


Okay, here’s my contract plan, once I have had a chance to weight my options:

Reneg – NT Amos Wilkerson, 4yrs $13.8m
1YR -
2YR – LB Dixon Daniels ($18m, $12B flat salary)
3YR – LT Junior Pruett ($11.4m, $2.4B flat salary)
4YR – WR/KR Clyde Craig ($25.1m, essentially 3yrs $3.3m)
5YR – CB Jesse Blythe ($46m, essentially 3yrs $3.7m)
6YR – TE Mitch Farias ($79m, essentially 3yrs $4.3m)
7YR – ILB Jesse Dirnbauer (108m, essentially 7yrs $24m)

LB Dirnbauer is a solid 5th year MLB who looks like a good fit for us – not a huge run stopper, though he did post around 15% of the tackles in Arizona the last two years. I’m hoping that our fat money short term signing LB Dixon will slot in as an impact player at the WLB slot, and really put our worries about the LB position to rest for the next couple seasons.

I also decide to knuckle under and try to re-up with LT Junior Pruett. Not a run blocker (and admittedly, with him on the bench, we did have a breakthrough season rushing the ball) but he’s a solid, familiar, affinity left tackle who looks to be pretty affordable. I think I have to take advantage of that – I looked at a high quality free agent, but couldn’t make that work for less than $10m a year.

I’m loading up with low-salary long term deals here, mostly trying to improve some ancillary positions on the team. WR Craig is a decent return man, who takes a three year minsal deal with one phony season at the end. I decide to extend CB Blythe for three real years, after which I’ll have no choice but to let him walk – I tried to get him down to only one phony year (and then I’d try to get it to auto-void) but couldn’t get the 5yr offer to work that way.

I’m leaving the 1yr offer out there for an after-draft fill-in. If it’s to a 2nd or 3rd year player, that buys us an extra year as an extendable RFA.


Under my new rules – I just sit back and watch these offers until they resolve, so there’s a real chance I’ll have to go dig back in, but I put in strong offers to the good players here, and I figure to land everyone I want. As the stages go by, I see LB Dixon Daniels getting offered 5yrs $70m from the Colts – but I still think my shorter bonus-laden offer will win out, and it does. In week six, WR Craig signs, and we have all six target players in hand.

(Aside: I’m not sure if this is a good or bad thing, but it took me more than an hour of real time trying to work out how to target players here for all these deals… maybe that gets simpler with time…but it was fairly rewarding to sort of chart out my needs crossed with the available players)

[QuikSand]

Late Free Agency

So, I get set to sign everyone, when I get an interesting note:

From: Kendall Beason

I have decided to hold out until I receive a new contract.

As your starting quarterback last season, I believe I had a breakout season. I believe I'm very seriously underpaid, and will not report to camp without a new contract.


Fascinating. I hadn’t though about what to do here under my rules, but here I am. Well – he’s actually asking for a massive contract worth more than $19m a year (making $5 as it stands) so I don’t even see how we’d afford it anyway. I think I’m painted into a corner here – we’ll hope Beason comes to camp under this deal, but I don’t think we have any way to re-up with him here.

3rd year DE Ernest Mills, pure pass rusher, is my target for a 1yr contract offer. He gives us some depth there cheap, which helps a great deal, as a tough position to fill.


jbvxz <- that is commentary from my assistant GM, who seems to think we need more badasses


I make a couple of veteran cuts before training camp to get down to 53 players – S Paul Woods and LB Mack Quinn. Neither was an easy cut.

[QuikSand]

2027 training camp

After trying to cut corners, I’ll post the whole deal this time:

[QuikSand]

Tampa Bay Player Report (TB 2027c - TB 2027d)

Name	Pos	Team	TB 2027c Current	TB 2027c Future	TB 2027d Current	TB 2027d Future	Overall Current Change	Overall Future Change
Beason, Kendall	QB	Tampa	52	52	53 (1)	53 (1)	1	1
Daylo, Tito	QB	Tampa	11	37	15 (4)	38 (1)	4	1
Swartz, Jose	QB	Tampa	17	50	21 (4)	49 (-1)	4	-1
Turnbull, O.J.	QB	Tampa	39	39	35 (-4)	35 (-4)	-4	-4
Montero, Sedrick	RB	Tampa	23	26	24 (1)	26 (0)	1	0
Newton, Albert	RB	Tampa	41	41	41 (0)	41 (0)	0	0
Reed, Todd	RB	Tampa	43	43	43 (0)	43 (0)	0	0
Raven, Kent	FB	Tampa	40	49	43 (3)	49 (0)	3	0
Farias, Mitch	TE	Tampa	51	51	50 (-1)	50 (-1)	-1	-1
Kanell, Chester	TE	Tampa	38	47	40 (2)	46 (-1)	2	-1
Czyz, Bryant	FL	Tampa	78	78	77 (-1)	77 (-1)	-1	-1
Dickens, Warren	FL	Tampa	52	52	52 (0)	52 (0)	0	0
Rodgers, Andre	FL	Tampa	25	35	27 (2)	35 (0)	2	0
Craig, Clyde	SE	Tampa	21	31	18 (-3)	26 (-5)	-3	-5
Deberry, Jeff	SE	Tampa	62	62	62 (0)	62 (0)	0	0
Hevey, Melvin	SE	Tampa	54	54	53 (-1)	53 (-1)	-1	-1
Lindsay, Kendrick	SE	Tampa	43	45	48 (5)	48 (3)	5	3
Brennan, Phil	C	Tampa	57	57	56 (-1)	56 (-1)	-1	-1
Donhoff, Maurice	LG	Tampa	60	60	60 (0)	60 (0)	0	0
Madison, Shannon	RG	Tampa	36	49	40 (4)	50 (1)	4	1
Rodgers, Bart	RG	Tampa	38	66	47 (9)	72 (6)	9	6
Pruett, Junior	LT	Tampa	49	49	49 (0)	49 (0)	0	0
Coleman, Kevin	RT	Tampa	43	43	35 (-8)	35 (-8)	-8	-8
Raber, Brenden	RT	Tampa	26	40	29 (3)	39 (-1)	3	-1
Stone, Kyle	K	Tampa	36	70	35 (-1)	60 (-10)	-1	-10
Arnold, Neal	P	Tampa	41	62	42 (1)	58 (-4)	1	-4
Franklin, Randal	LDE	Tampa	36	49	29 (-7)	38 (-11)	-7	-11
Ingram, Arnold	LDE	Tampa	77	77	78 (1)	78 (1)	1	1
Hernandez, Leo	NT	Tampa	23	57	26 (3)	54 (-3)	3	-3
Upshaw, Walter	NT	Tampa	33	37	34 (1)	38 (1)	1	1
Wilkerson, Amos	NT	Tampa	53	60	57 (4)	61 (1)	4	1
Blackburn, Edwin	RDE	Tampa	39	43	43 (4)	43 (0)	4	0
Bolsins, Bo	RDE	Tampa	56	56	56 (0)	56 (0)	0	0
Mills, Ernest	RDE	Tampa	37	37	39 (2)	39 (2)	2	2
Leal, Drew	SLB	Tampa	47	47	46 (-1)	46 (-1)	-1	-1
Reese, Pete	SLB	Tampa	31	31	31 (0)	31 (0)	0	0
Abercrombie, Darnell	SILB	Tampa	21	47	30 (9)	52 (5)	9	5
Winfield, Devin	SILB	Tampa	44	52	49 (5)	51 (-1)	5	-1
Chancey, Kelly	WILB	Tampa	39	61	44 (5)	61 (0)	5	0
Dirnbauer, Jesse	MLB	Tampa	52	52	52 (0)	52 (0)	0	0
Caldwell, Darrell	WLB	Tampa	17	32	19 (2)	31 (-1)	2	-1
Daniels, Dixon	WLB	Tampa	66	66	66 (0)	66 (0)	0	0
Palm, Heath	WLB	Tampa	27	27	27 (0)	27 (0)	0	0
Sawyer, Louie	LCB	Tampa	53	53	47 (-6)	47 (-6)	-6	-6
Shea, Billy	LCB	Tampa	86	86	86 (0)	86 (0)	0	0
Blythe, Jessie	RCB	Tampa	34	34	33 (-1)	33 (-1)	-1	-1
Kemnitzer, Chuck	RCB	Tampa	66	66	66 (0)	66 (0)	0	0
Booker, Rico	SS	Tampa	54	54	54 (0)	54 (0)	0	0
Terry, Ben	SS	Tampa	20	74	28 (8)	79 (5)	8	5
Billodeaux, Morris	FS	Tampa	30	30	31 (1)	31 (1)	1	1
Fritz, Roy	FS	Tampa	67	67	67 (0)	67 (0)	0	0
Wilkerson, Zack	FS	Tampa	18	46	23 (5)	46 (0)	5	0
Woodson, Rusty	FS	Tampa	19	41	23 (4)	45 (4)	4	4

[QuikSand]

And, the first bit of big news is right here:

From: Kendall Beason

I have decided that loyalty is more important than money. I will report to active duty immediately.


So, that had the potential to really hurt us for this year, but instead we dodge the bullet.

Anyway – here’s the updated rookie watch:

Pick Pos Name                  Grd Adj Dash  ST  BP  Agil  Bjump  PS  Dev  O/U Pre   Post
1.23 CB  Ben Terry (SS)        5.9 6.1 4.32  30  14  6.78  10-03  44  13%  UR  20/74 28/79 +5
2.22 NT  Leo Hernandez         5.2 5.6 4.95  34  27  7.62   9-01  --  22%  NA  23/57 26/54 -3
3.21 K   Kyle Stone            6.7 4.0 5.02  44  10  7.55   9-05  --  47%  NA  36/70 35/60 -10
4.23 FS  Rusty Woodson         5.0 4.7 4.54  34  20  7.25   8-04  50  29%  UR  19/41 23/45 +4
5.22 WR  Andre Rogers          4.3 4.5 4.64  13  15  7.09  10-04  51  43%  VU  25/35 27/35 --
6.13 QB  Jose Swartz           4.7 5.4 4.48  19  12  7.30   8-03  82  31%  NA  17/50 21/49 -1
6.21 P   Neal Arnold           5.0 2.7 4.87  28   5  7.48   9-10  --  33%  NA  41/62 42/58 -4
7.23 RB  Sedrick Montero       4.6 4.9 4.56  25  10  7.25  10-01  12  52%  AS  23/26 24/26 --

Okay, Ben Terry looks like a beast in waiting, while S Rusty Woodson might one day start alongside him. QB Swartz is intriguing enough to keep around, too. No major shocks here.

A big breakout for RG Bart Rodgers makes us very comfy starting him this year.

We’re ready.

[QuikSand]

2027 season

Benchmarks:

Roster Rating – 100/81
Cohesion – 68-86-72-55

My predictions:

Bryant Czyz tops 1,000 for his first time, with around 100 catches on the year
DEs Ingram and Bolsins and LB Daniels all get double digit sacks for us
We post improved number everywhere, and manage about 11 wins to take the division

Season narrative:

We suffer two blowouts in out first four games, and while 2-2 isn’t awful, it doesn’t look good on the stat sheet. Halfway through, at 5-3, we still don’t look very strong – we are upside down in passing yards per attempt, giving up more than we get.

We get down toward the end of the season, and we are 9-5 – but in a three-way tie for the division lead. Our last game is against Carolina, and we are tied at 10-5 for the division lead – they get the win and take the division, we expect to hit the road again as a wild card team – but are disappointed when we realize that we grabbed the dreaded 7-seed with the loss, and lose out to Atlanta for the final wild card. We’re done.

Front Office Football 2007
2027 Summary for Tampa Bay Buccaneers
   
Year                2027                                      
Record              10-6                                      
Winning Pct.        .625                                      
All-Time            149-203                                   
Winning Pct.        .423                                      
Playoffs            3-4                                       
Playoff Visits      4                                         
Bowl Wins           0                                         
Head Coach          Carlos Browning                           
Record              31-22                                     
Winning Pct.        .584                                      
Off. Coord.         C. Spencer                                
Def. Coord.         B. McKenzie                               
   
Tampa Bay Buccaneers    Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         26.6      18          
Rushing Yards           114.8     14          
Yards Per Carry         4.31      11          
Pass Attempts           35.1      11          
Completions             24.6      1 (T)       
Completion Pct.         70.1      2           
Passing Yards           258.6     7           
Yards Per Attempt       7.36      10          
Yards Per Catch         10.50     28          
Total Yardage Gained    362.3     5           
3rd Down Conversions    49.8      1 (T)       
Points Per Game         27.6      3           
Pass Rush Pct.          21.3      6 (T)       
Pass Defense Pct.       48.8      20          
Turnovers               27        19 (T)      
Turnover Margin         +2        15          
   
Opponents               Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         25.2      8 (T)       
Rushing Yards           91.0      3           
Yards Per Carry         3.61      1           
Pass Attempts           32.2      9           
Completions             20.7      18          
Completion Pct.         64.3      29          
Passing Yards           235.4     13          
Yards Per Attempt       7.31      21          
Yards Per Catch         11.38     16          
Total Yardage Gained    309.6     6           
3rd Down Conversions    44.6      26          
Points Per Game         24.4      26          
Pass Rush Pct.          15.7      3           
Pass Defense Pct.       35.1      4           
Turnovers               29        10 (T)      
   
Week  Team  Versus        Oppnt  
1     21    at NOS        38      
2     21    JAX           17      
3     34    at SFO        10      
4     20    at WAS        45      
5     45    DAL           28      
6     28    ATL           31      
7     35    PHI           28      
9     17    at NYK        16      
10    24    NOS           31      
11    22    at CAR        10      
12    37    at LRK        17      
13    19    GBY           13      
14    17    IND           34      
15    30    at ATL        27      
16    51    at TEN        20      
17    20    CAR           25      
   
Passing                 Pos   Att   Comp  Yards Y/Att TD    Int   Rate  
6 K. Beason             QB    547   385   4075  7.45  30    15    98.6    
**Team                  ---   562   394   4137  7.36  31    15    98.5    
$$Opp                   ---   515   331   3767  7.31  32    15    94.7    
   
Rushing                 Pos   Att   Yards Y/Att TD    Fum  
24 T. Reed              RB    304   1347  4.43  12    4       
35 A. Newton            RB    87    402   4.62  4     2       
**Team                  ---   426   1836  4.31  16    25      
$$Opp                   ---   403   1456  3.61  11    26      
   
Receiving               Pos   Targ  Catch Yards Y/Ctc Y/Tar Drop  TD  
18 W. Dickens           WR    104   68    688   10.12 6.62  5     6       
24 T. Reed              RB    79    62    356   5.74  4.51  2     5       
84 M. Farias            TE    64    53    531   10.02 8.30  1     6       
81 M. Hevey             WR    78    52    733   14.10 9.40  3     3       
8 B. Czyz               WR    82    49    641   13.08 7.82  3     5       
83 J. Deberry           WR    45    29    344   11.86 7.64  3     3       
82 C. Kanell            TE    34    27    257   9.52  7.56  1     2       
43 K. Raven             FB    31    25    231   9.24  7.45  0     0       
   
Defense                 Pos   Tack  Asst  Sack  Hurr  Ints  Defn  PDPct  
93 D. Daniels           OLB   81    26    10.0  11    0     3     77.7    
95 D. Winfield          ILB   80    36    0.5   0     3     2     75.5    
34 R. Fritz             S     75    23    0.0   0     2     8     80.3    
32 R. Booker            S     72    24    0.0   0     2     8     80.8    
48 B. Shea              CB    70    12    0.5   2     3     13    75.5    
33 C. Kemnitzer         CB    54    9     0.0   0     2     15    78.5    
98 A. Ingram            DE    48    20    8.0   15    0     1     81.7    
90 A. Wilkerson         DT    40    26    9.0   9     0     0     81.9    
99 B. Bolsins           DE    32    15    4.5   12    0     0     81.4    
56 J. Dirnbauer         ILB   31    6     2.0   0     0     2     73.7    
58 H. Palm              OLB   28    13    5.0   6     0     0     77.2    
51 D. Leal              OLB   27    11    1.0   2     0     4     78.8    

Well, our offense is clicking pretty well – we are not explosive, but we are pretty consistent. This year Beason improved slightly everywhere (except TD passes), and made fewer mistakes. WR Czyz was never on pace for a huge year, and injuries hobbled him late in the season. And we got another excellent season from RB Todd Reed, who seems to fit us like a glove.

I though our pass rush would be vastly improved – Daniels was pretty good, and Ingram was his usual solid self, but the teamwide 21.3 was a shade lower than I had hoped. We managed to get back to basically even in turnovers, but didn’t really get much better – I fear that below the surface, we are not a better team than we were last year.

- - -

Season Coda

I’m admittedly disappointed in the season, I really believed that with the weapons we had in place, our offense would be better. If we retain QB Beason for next season, I think it might be back to our more traditional offensive style, and throwing the ball downfield more. As much as I say I can live with the stats generated from the short-passing, control-the-game style… I guess it’s just in my blood to grip it and rip it. This 11 yards per completion stuff doesn’t do it for me.

Speaking of Beason – we have on late-season reneg we can do. He is asking for $17m per year, after playing the last two seasons for $5m each. My thinking here is that we can let him walk, he will ask for a ton of money, and maybe we can work out a long term deal with two or three affordable seasons to get him to return. He’s obviously good enough to run our offense, and it’s not like I have another really good option sitting around – no offense to OJ Turnbull.

I instead lock up G Maurice Donhoff for three more seasons, getting a solid interior starter on the payroll and hopefully continuing to build OL continuity.

[QuikSand]

...this is getting boring, just as I'm getting close to finding out if the challenge actually holds up. *sigh*

[st.cronin]

Please keep this up, this is very interesting.

[Barkeep49]

I almost always enjoy your dynasties because you are such a great player and give more insight into your thought processes (or at least do so more clearly) than most dynasties.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

...this is getting boring, just as I'm getting close to finding out if the challenge actually holds up. *sigh*

Gah. How discouraging after reading all that came before it.

[QuikSand]

Well, the thing that will keep me at it is my continued desire for a truly *long term* challenge -- one that I could play for 30 seasons, and go through a team that cycles over and over. Basically, playing solo FOF I really only enjoy the "building" aspect... once I have pretty good players everywhere, i tend to lose interest, in part because it's not really fun having a team that goes 12-4 every season and the only differenced is whether you win it all of get nipped in the playoffs.

I'm a little disappointed that I have so quickly turned most of my long term contracts into bullshit (3 or 4 year deals with a clear walk-away point). Hard to do anything else in this game, though... it's just the nature of the beast.

I'll keep on for a couple more seasons, though, at least -- I would like to find out if the challenge of just having enough bodies around is sufficient to keep this engaging. If not, maybe I wipe out the rule that allows me to re-sign my own RFAs (or maybe to only re-sign one RFA in any given year).

[QuikSand]

Another Rule

Okay, thinking on it some more, I think I want to add one more rule. Right now, my rule governing restricted free agents is as follows:

-there can be only one year on any new offer made to a restricted free agent

The result here has been that when playing all out under these rules, I basically get to keep every draft pick for four years, period. I also have found myself trying to target decent-looking 2nd and 3rd year players, knowing that Ii can squeeze that 4th year out of them with a RFA extension.

So, instead, I think I want to make the rule as follows:

-there can be only one new contract with a restricted free agent outside the general limits

Basically, I get to sign one of my RFAs, to a multi-year deal if I like, in any season. Anything past that has to count against my rule of seven contract offerings.

Mathematically, I don’t think it’s a huge change – in a given season, instead of re-signing four to six guys to one year deals, I will be re-signing one guy to a three year deal, in most cases.

What I do like is that it makes some added pressure on me to try to get the longer-length rookie contract, which might actually make rookie signings a shade more interesting. if I end up in a bit of a numbers game just to maintain a full roster, then getting those 2nd and 3rd round guys to take a 4 year deal rather than a 3 year deal actually means something – maybe enough to be willing to suffer a holdout, which would be brand new to me.

So – that will be my new rule going forward. I get to pick one RFA for a new deal, however long I can negotiate, but that’s it each season… unless I want to occupy one of my wide-open slots for another RFA (which seems plausible that it could happen).

[QuikSand]

2028 offseason

I am remiss for overlooking the season awards last year… our free agent signee LB Dixon Daniels was honored as a first team OLB. Solid season for him, benefiting from the WLB stats that inure in a 3-4 defensive front.

We suffer no retirements. We also have no players who are in obvious cut years in long contracts – we will cross that bridge next season, though. So – here’s my roster math as the offseason kicks off:

37 player currently signed
7 free agent signings
1 restricted FA signing
7 draft picks
--
52 players

So, unless I make a move via trade, we will have a less than full roster this season. The difference between 53 and 52 is probably trivial… but what this basically means is that I’m going to need to get as much out of each and every draft pick that I can, going forward. For example – this habit I have of whiffing with a late round pick on a longshot QB… that is a costly practice under these rules, where a 4th or a 5th QB is basically a dead spot on the roster when he doesn’t have a future playing QB.

Incidentally, I have not created a rule against using the franchise tag… purposefully. I thought it would be reasonable to allow myself the use of the tag. Since I can do so little with renegotiations, it seems to be of limited use – but maybe not. This year, maybe I can make the case to tag QB Beason. A one year deal with him for something like $19 million won’t be that easy to swallow, but it’s not awful. He’s a 13th year guy, after all, so he doesn’t have all that many more years left in him. Worth considering – maybe after I have a look over what might be out there in free agency worth spending fat money on. We have $47m in cap space (about 23%) so we have the ability to splash around a bit here.

RT Pat O’Neill would be a candidate for thee tag as well, but the OT salary is itself over $17 million – so if I were going to use it, I’d just go ahead and use it on Beason. Re-signing O’Neil, an option I will consider, can’t be anywhere near as pricey.


Hmmm… speaking of the QB situation and the “whiffed” picks there, let’s have a quick look at young Jose Swartz, shall we?



I know he slipped a point in his first camp, but this doesn’t look like a lost cause to me. He’s got a lot going for him in the intangible stuff like accuracy, timing, sense rush, and two-minute offense. This guy could be good enough to play, or at least be a backup. His very limited formations could prove a hurdle, but a surmountable one I think. If we get trade offers for OJ Turnbull again, we will be jumping on them – we have a backup in place right here, as far as I’m concerned.


Right now, we are short of a legal roster at the following positions: RB, RB/FB, TE, OL, DL

So, we have a little work to do just to get the team ready to play, much less play at its best.

Here is our own list of free agents:

Unrestricted FAs        #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate  Future Estimate Cntrct 
Beason, Kendall         6   QB          13   53                53                ---  
Hevey, Melvin           81  SE          10   53                53                ---  
O'Neill, Pat            73  RT          10   52                52                ---  
Franklin, Randal        72  LDE         8    29                38                ---  
Reed, Todd              24  RB          5    43                43                ---  
Reese, Pete             57  SLB         5    31                31                ---  
Billodeaux, Morris      38  FS          5    31                31                ---  
Palm, Heath             58  WLB         5    27                27                ---  

Restricted FAs          #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate  Future Estimate Cntrct 
Winfield, Devin         95  SILB        4    52                52                ---  
Madison, Shannon        63  RG          4    42                50                ---  
Lindsay, Kendrick       89  SE          4    49                49                ---  
Kanell, Chester         82  TE          4    43                46                ---  
Raven, Kent             43  FB          4    45                45                ---  
Blackburn, Edwin        97  RDE         4    43                43                ---  
Newton, Albert          35  RB          4    41                41                ---  
Mills, Ernest           75  RDE         4    39                39                ---  
Upshaw, Walter          74  NT          4    36                38                ---   

My thinking is basically that we are deep enough at WR to let Hevey go (though he does seem to be very productive) and that there’s nobody we really, really must re-sign. If Todd Reed is affordable, it’s tough to deny how productive he has been for us, and I’d like to lock him up for a while. DE Randal Franklin is a cheap and decent affinity DE, but I have no idea what his contract demands might look like now.

RG Madison is a guy I’d prefer to keep, but he’s going to be a backup G, and candidly – that’s not a spot worth paying a fortune for. Basically the same goes for TE and FB – pretty easy to find replacement-level guys there too, either in the draft, or on cheap FA contracts. I guess among the RFAs, my leaning right now will be to re-sign Ernest Mills, if he’s cheap – he is a superb pass rusher, and locking him for three years would be nice.

So, no totally clear plan here – but if we re-sign DE Mills, we will at least consider new deals with WR Hevey, RT O’Neill, and DE Franklin as attractive targets for our open FA offers. Other RFAs of ours are also potential targets – we could end up with less turnover than expected, if we turn our contract offers largely internally.

[QuikSand]

2028 offseason

I am remiss for overlooking the season awards last year… our free agent signee LB Dixon Daniels was honored as a first team OLB. Solid season for him, benefiting from the WLB stats that inure in a 3-4 defensive front.

We suffer no retirements. We also have no players who are in obvious cut years in long contracts – we will cross that bridge next season, though. So – here’s my roster math as the offseason kicks off:

37 player currently signed
7 free agent signings
1 restricted FA signing
7 draft picks
--
52 players

So, unless I make a move via trade, we will have a less than full roster this season. The difference between 53 and 52 is probably trivial… but what this basically means is that I’m going to need to get as much out of each and every draft pick that I can, going forward. For example – this habit I have of whiffing with a late round pick on a longshot QB… that is a costly practice under these rules, where a 4th or a 5th QB is basically a dead spot on the roster when he doesn’t have a future playing QB.

Incidentally, I have not created a rule against using the franchise tag… purposefully. I thought it would be reasonable to allow myself the use of the tag. Since I can do so little with renegotiations, it seems to be of limited use – but maybe not. This year, maybe I can make the case to tag QB Beason. A one year deal with him for something like $19 million won’t be that easy to swallow, but it’s not awful. He’s a 13th year guy, after all, so he doesn’t have all that many more years left in him. Worth considering – maybe after I have a look over what might be out there in free agency worth spending fat money on. We have $47m in cap space (about 23%) so we have the ability to splash around a bit here.

RT Pat O’Neill would be a candidate for thee tag as well, but the OT salary is itself over $17 million – so if I were going to use it, I’d just go ahead and use it on Beason. Re-signing O’Neil, an option I will consider, can’t be anywhere near as pricey.


Hmmm… speaking of the QB situation and the “whiffed” picks there, let’s have a quick look at young Jose Swartz, shall we?



I know he slipped a point in his first camp, but this doesn’t look like a lost cause to me. He’s got a lot going for him in the intangible stuff like accuracy, timing, sense rush, and two-minute offense. This guy could be good enough to play, or at least be a backup. His very limited formations could prove a hurdle, but a surmountable one I think. If we get trade offers for OJ Turnbull again, we will be jumping on them – we have a backup in place right here, as far as I’m concerned.


Right now, we are short of a legal roster at the following positions: RB, RB/FB, TE, OL, DL

So, we have a little work to do just to get the team ready to play, much less play at its best.

Here is our own list of free agents:

Unrestricted FAs        #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate  Future Estimate Cntrct 
Beason, Kendall         6   QB          13   53                53                ---  
Hevey, Melvin           81  SE          10   53                53                ---  
O'Neill, Pat            73  RT          10   52                52                ---  
Franklin, Randal        72  LDE         8    29                38                ---  
Reed, Todd              24  RB          5    43                43                ---  
Reese, Pete             57  SLB         5    31                31                ---  
Billodeaux, Morris      38  FS          5    31                31                ---  
Palm, Heath             58  WLB         5    27                27                ---  

Restricted FAs          #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate  Future Estimate Cntrct 
Winfield, Devin         95  SILB        4    52                52                ---  
Madison, Shannon        63  RG          4    42                50                ---  
Lindsay, Kendrick       89  SE          4    49                49                ---  
Kanell, Chester         82  TE          4    43                46                ---  
Raven, Kent             43  FB          4    45                45                ---  
Blackburn, Edwin        97  RDE         4    43                43                ---  
Newton, Albert          35  RB          4    41                41                ---  
Mills, Ernest           75  RDE         4    39                39                ---  
Upshaw, Walter          74  NT          4    36                38                ---   

My thinking is basically that we are deep enough at WR to let Hevey go (though he does seem to be very productive) and that there’s nobody we really, really must re-sign. If Todd Reed is affordable, it’s tough to deny how productive he has been for us, and I’d like to lock him up for a while. DE Randal Franklin is a cheap and decent affinity DE, but I have no idea what his contract demands might look like now.

RG Madison is a guy I’d prefer to keep, but he’s going to be a backup G, and candidly – that’s not a spot worth paying a fortune for. Basically the same goes for TE and FB – pretty easy to find replacement-level guys there too, either in the draft, or on cheap FA contracts. I guess among the RFAs, my leaning right now will be to re-sign Ernest Mills, if he’s cheap – he is a superb pass rusher, and locking him for three years would be nice.

So, no totally clear plan here – but if we re-sign DE Mills, we will at least consider new deals with WR Hevey, RT O’Neill, and DE Franklin as attractive targets for our open FA offers. Other RFAs of ours are also potential targets – we could end up with less turnover than expected, if we turn our contract offers largely internally.

[QuikSand]

2028 Late Free Agency, Roster Finalization

So, we have a twist once again:

From: Dixon Daniels

I have decided to hold out until I receive a new contract.

I believe I made a huge difference rushing the passer last season. I believe I'm very seriously underpaid, and will not report to camp without a new contract.

It’s true that he had a big season last year. It’s also true that he is getting paid a pretty solid sum this year - $3m base and $6m of last year’s signing bonus. Reacting to the obvious year two of a just-signed contract seems rough… but I’d rather have it too tough than too easy.

Interestingly enough, I just drafted a rookie who I think ought to be great at the WLB role (for which Daniels is ideally suited) so he doesn’t have us completely headlocked. He’s thinking about $12m a year with a new $14m bonus… and I’m thinking we’ll wait him out and get by with our younger player.


I get my three rookies from rounds 2-4 all signed to the longer 4yr contracts – under my rules, I think this is a pretty meaningful goal to do. The last three take three year deals, and in theory I will have a free shot to re-up with one of them while he’s still a RFA.

An interesting twist for us this year is LB Kelley Chancey, who has missed a year and a half to a seriously broken leg. He looks okay, and candidly, we will be thin at LB if he doesn’t pan out and Daniels continues his holdout. The up-and-down Darnell Abercrombie would likely get pushed into a starting role, for which I don’t really think he is well suited. This is largely because I have let LB Devin Winfield walk to free agency – he wants to get paid pretty handsomely, and I don’t like the coverage void in his skill set, so I think that is still the way to go. However, he sits out there in free agency, and a one year deal would surely help us patch things over at the LB position for this year. Hmmm.

I hem and haw, and ultimately decide to re-sign Winfield for a one year, $6m deal.

[QuikSand]

2028 Training Camp
Tampa Bay Player Report (TB 2028c - TB 2028d)

Name	Pos	Team	TB 2028c Current	TB 2028c Future	TB 2028d Current	TB 2028d Future	Overall Current Change	Overall Future Change
Beason, Kendall	QB	Tampa	53	53	54 (1)	54 (1)	1	1
Daylo, Tito	QB	Tampa	14	34	17 (3)	35 (1)	3	1
Swartz, Jose	QB	Tampa	26	45	30 (4)	46 (1)	4	1
Turnbull, O.J.	QB	Tampa	34	34	34 (0)	34 (0)	0	0
Lanza, Paul	RB	Tampa	9	47	9 (0)	36 (-11)	0	-11
Montero, Sedrick	RB	Tampa	25	27	27 (2)	27 (0)	2	0
Reed, Todd	RB	Tampa	44	44	44 (0)	44 (0)	0	0
Raven, Kent	FB	Tampa	45	45	45 (0)	45 (0)	0	0
Farias, Mitch	TE	Tampa	51	51	50 (-1)	50 (-1)	-1	-1
Randle, Bryce	TE	Tampa	22	57	24 (2)	51 (-6)	2	-6
Czyz, Bryant	FL	Tampa	77	77	77 (0)	77 (0)	0	0
Dickens, Warren	FL	Tampa	51	51	51 (0)	51 (0)	0	0
Rodgers, Andre	FL	Tampa	27	35	29 (2)	35 (0)	2	0
Craig, Clyde	SE	Tampa	18	26	19 (1)	26 (0)	1	0
Deberry, Jeff	SE	Tampa	60	60	60 (0)	60 (0)	0	0
Lindsay, Kendrick	SE	Tampa	50	50	50 (0)	50 (0)	0	0
Brennan, Phil	C	Tampa	56	56	56 (0)	56 (0)	0	0
Donhoff, Maurice	LG	Tampa	61	61	61 (0)	61 (0)	0	0
Rodgers, Bart	RG	Tampa	59	77	63 (4)	76 (-1)	4	-1
Canney, Irving	LT	Tampa	18	51	23 (5)	55 (4)	5	4
Gordon, Hunter	LT	Tampa	18	38	21 (3)	37 (-1)	3	-1
Pruett, Junior	LT	Tampa	49	49	48 (-1)	48 (-1)	-1	-1
Coleman, Kevin	RT	Tampa	35	35	33 (-2)	33 (-2)	-2	-2
Raber, Brenden	RT	Tampa	33	39	38 (5)	40 (1)	5	1
Stone, Kyle	K	Tampa	42	55	45 (3)	55 (0)	3	0
Arnold, Neal	P	Tampa	47	54	48 (1)	54 (0)	1	0
Franklin, Randal	LDE	Tampa	28	38	27 (-1)	34 (-4)	-1	-4
Ingram, Arnold	LDE	Tampa	78	78	79 (1)	79 (1)	1	1
Hernandez, Leo	NT	Tampa	25	53	29 (4)	54 (1)	4	1
Marceau, Herb	NT	Tampa	17	30	19 (2)	32 (2)	2	2
Wilkerson, Amos	NT	Tampa	63	63	64 (1)	64 (1)	1	1
Bolsins, Bo	RDE	Tampa	57	57	58 (1)	58 (1)	1	1
Stone, Marco	RDE	Tampa	17	39	20 (3)	39 (0)	3	0
Abercrombie, Darnell	SLB	Tampa	24	43	28 (4)	43 (0)	4	0
Leal, Drew	SLB	Tampa	47	47	40 (-7)	40 (-7)	-7	-7
Winfield, Devin	SILB	Tampa	51	51	51 (0)	51 (0)	0	0
Chancey, Kelly	WILB	Tampa	38	54	44 (6)	54 (0)	6	0
Dirnbauer, Jesse	MLB	Tampa	52	52	52 (0)	52 (0)	0	0
Caldwell, Darrell	WLB	Tampa	18	29	20 (2)	29 (0)	2	0
Daniels, Dixon	WLB	Tampa	63	63	58 (-5)	58 (-5)	-5	-5
Gerald, Ellis	WLB	Tampa	25	58	30 (5)	58 (0)	5	0
Quill, Ernie	LCB	Tampa	51	51	51 (0)	51 (0)	0	0
Sawyer, Louie	LCB	Tampa	47	47	48 (1)	48 (1)	1	1
Shea, Billy	LCB	Tampa	85	85	86 (1)	86 (1)	1	1
Blythe, Jessie	RCB	Tampa	33	33	28 (-5)	28 (-5)	-5	-5
Kemnitzer, Chuck	RCB	Tampa	66	66	66 (0)	66 (0)	0	0
Booker, Rico	SS	Tampa	53	53	45 (-8)	45 (-8)	-8	-8
Terry, Ben	SS	Tampa	32	80	40 (8)	80 (0)	8	0
Fritz, Roy	FS	Tampa	67	67	68 (1)	68 (1)	1	1
Wilkerson, Zack	FS	Tampa	23	46	27 (4)	45 (-1)	4	-1
Woodson, Rusty	FS	Tampa	25	47	28 (3)	47 (0)	3	0

Well, Paul Lanza certainly took a gigantic hit at RB in training camp, and I fear that little experiment might not bear fruit after all. Sophomore back Sedrick Montero isn’t much, but he probably has to hold down the #2 RB job for us this year.

On the good side, we got camp bumps from T Canney and DT Marceau, making both look like worthwhile prospects. Our top pick, LB Gerald, was flat – disappointing given that combine, but I will still hope for development there.

We head to the exhibition season with 52 total players, and one lingering holdout.

[QuikSand]

2018 season

Benchmarks:

Roster Rating – 100/96
Cohesion – 71-90-86-66

My predictions:

QB Beason adjusts fine to a more aggressive passing offense, and posts 4,500 yards
SS Ben Terry shows us what he is all about, with 80 tackles, 6 picks, and an 80+ PD%
We are again in the mix for a playoff spot, and 10 wins gets us in this time


Season narrative:

SS Rico Booker gets hurt badly in preseason, so the job is clearly wide open for our young star, Ben Terry. He was going to get the starts anyhow, but now he will probably get maximum playing time as well. On opening day, he posts 6 tackles, 8 assists, half a sack and an interception to earn POG honors. Solid – he is going to be a star.

Dixon Daniels has also returned to the fold, no shock there, and he is helping lead our pass rush once again. In the early going, at 3-1, our offense looks excellent, but the defense is very strong, holding teams way down in yards per rush and pass.

At 6-2 halfway through, we are up in the points column by 244-175, and are the highest scoring team in the league. Todd Reed will miss a few games, and we will see what our backup RBs can do in this offense. Reed himself is having a tough year so far.

We get to 10-2 on the year, with WR Bryant Czyz putting together a career season, finally liberated from the horrors of the dink-and-dunk crap we have been playing. 86 targets, 61 catches (a far higher percent complete than in the short passing attack, even) and an off-the-charts 13.7 yards per target. You read that right – 13.7 yards per target. Nice to see him paying off, finally, as we more properly are using our team’s weaponry.

We cruise into the end of the season with a 13-3 record, and the top seed in the NFC. The switch on offense certainly seems to have made a big difference for us, as we have become easily the most fearsome unit in football this season.

Front Office Football 2007
2028 Summary for Tampa Bay Buccaneers
   
Year                2028                                      
Record              13-3                                      
Winning Pct.        .812                                      
All-Time            162-206                                   
Winning Pct.        .440                                      
Playoffs            3-4                                       
Playoff Visits      5                                         
Bowl Wins           0                                         
Head Coach          Carlos Browning                           
Record              44-25                                     
Winning Pct.        .637                                      
Off. Coord.         A. Stewart                                
Def. Coord.         B. McKenzie                               
   
Tampa Bay Buccaneers    Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         31.8      3           
Rushing Yards           108.8     19          
Yards Per Carry         3.42      32          
Pass Attempts           27.9      31          
Completions             17.9      29          
Completion Pct.         64.1      4           
Passing Yards           275.9     3           
Yards Per Attempt       9.90      1           
Yards Per Catch         15.44     1           
Total Yardage Gained    376.3     2           
3rd Down Conversions    47.6      2           
Points Per Game         29.8      1           
Pass Rush Pct.          23.8      5           
Pass Defense Pct.       64.6      5           
Turnovers               36        28          
Turnover Margin         -6        26          
   
Opponents               Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         25.4      12          
Rushing Yards           94.8      4           
Yards Per Carry         3.73      5           
Pass Attempts           37.8      29          
Completions             20.8      22          
Completion Pct.         55.1      5           
Passing Yards           220.9     8           
Yards Per Attempt       5.85      1           
Yards Per Catch         10.61     2           
Total Yardage Gained    298.3     3           
3rd Down Conversions    33.6      4           
Points Per Game         17.2      2           
Pass Rush Pct.          19.3      10          
Pass Defense Pct.       53.2      19          
Turnovers               30        9 (T)       
   
Week  Team  Versus        Oppnt  
1     29    ATL           18      
2     27    at KCY        30      
3     31    WAS           7       
4     40    ARI           34      
5     24    SFO           34      
6     28    at STL        18      
8     44    at SEA        21      
9     21    NOS           13      
10    31    at ATL        6       
11    31    CAR           0       
12    38    SDO           13      
13    34    at GBY        30      
14    17    at DEN        23      
15    21    at CAR        17      
16    27    OAK           2       
17    34    at NOS        9       
$$CS        SEA                   
   
Passing                 Pos   Att   Comp  Yards Y/Att TD    Int   Rate  
6 K. Beason             QB    432   276   4299  9.95  38    22    104.9   
**Team                  ---   446   286   4415  9.90  39    25    102.5   
$$Opp                   ---   604   333   3534  5.85  17    17    70.0    
   
Rushing                 Pos   Att   Yards Y/Att TD    Fum  
21 S. Montero           RB    236   790   3.35  7     8       
24 T. Reed              RB    158   613   3.88  4     2       
5 P. Lanza              RB    80    272   3.40  2     1       
**Team                  ---   509   1741  3.42  16    22      
$$Opp                   ---   406   1516  3.73  9     22      
   
Receiving               Pos   Targ  Catch Yards Y/Ctc Y/Tar Drop  TD  
8 B. Czyz               WR    125   83    1560  18.80 12.48 4     10      
83 J. Deberry           WR    103   52    1087  20.90 10.55 6     9       
84 M. Farias            TE    44    36    460   12.78 10.45 1     3       
18 W. Dickens           WR    50    34    388   11.41 7.76  0     6       
89 K. Lindsay           WR    39    22    365   16.59 9.36  1     5       
   
Defense                 Pos   Tack  Asst  Sack  Hurr  Ints  Defn  PDPct  
95 D. Winfield          ILB   90    29    2.0   3     3     5     78.4    
49 B. Terry             S     81    29    0.5   2     3     12    81.0    
48 B. Shea              CB    66    18    1.0   0     7     13    83.0    
34 R. Fritz             S     53    14    1.0   1     0     15    82.7    
93 D. Daniels           OLB   52    20    7.0   16    0     5     79.4    
50 K. Chancey           ILB   48    13    0.0   1     0     2     71.8    
98 A. Ingram            DE    46    21    6.0   20    0     0     81.4    
51 D. Leal              OLB   45    17    2.0   1     0     2     74.6    
33 C. Kemnitzer         CB    44    12    2.0   1     1     13    79.7    
90 A. Wilkerson         DT    43    14    4.5   15    0     1     81.5    
99 B. Bolsins           DE    39    16    8.5   23    0     0     81.1    
59 E. Gerald            OLB   25    8     2.5   7     0     1     79.6    
30 R. Woodson           S     22    7     0.0   0     1     3     80.6    
56 J. Dirnbauer         ILB   20    4     0.0   0     0     1     73.2    
40 L. Sawyer            CB    18    10    0.0   0     0     2     78.2    

So, the passing game is king. This just in. Pitching it downfield for 15 yard strikes is the way to win in FOF, still is, always was. Even though a fair number of my players were picked up for their skills-match to the short pass, this approach still is clearly better. Our running game suffered, oddly, but that might be due to personnel in part. We will get Todd Reed back for the playoffs, though.

So, once again – we aren’t seeing any one player really put together big pass rushing stats – 7 or 8 sacks, maybe 20 hurries, but nobody with 15/40. Teamwide, we are solid – 5th in overall PR% -- but I wonder if we aren’t wasting resources there.

SS Ben Terry had basically the season I had hoped for, as our secondary is now playing at a really high level – all four of our starters post double digit PDs and solid PR% ratings.


So… overall, our defense got a ton better, statistically. Mostly the same players. Completely the same system. What gives? I have a theory. Lacking any sort of meaningful understanding of how defense works in this game (…and really, how could you? it’s brutally hard to test, and the developer has decided that we just don’t need to know how things work) I have concocted a theory on how to make your defense work a lot better. It goes like this:

Get ahead by three touchdowns.

Yup. Pass the ball like crazy, tear the other guys a new arse, and pull out to a 21-0 lead. Suddenly, you get to drop everyone back in coverage all day, your QB rushers get to pin their ears back and let it roll, and the other team has little choice but to play right into your hands, doing pretty much what you expect and increasing the chance of becoming too familiar to function. If they decide to get sneaky, cross you up, and decide to rush the ball for 5 yards a carry… who the shit cares, you’re ahead by three touchdowns anyway.

There it is, my little secret of a dominating defense. Play better offense.

[QuikSand]

Postseason Narrative:

Divisional Playoff: Seattle (11-6) at Tampa Bay (13-3)

We are favored here by only 2 points, not sure what’s up with that. They have Bill Wilkins (former Bucc, guy we dumped for a 6th rounder a couple seasons back) in to start as their #1 QB is out. I don’t see this as a strong matchup at all. They are actually a pretty comparable team to us in talent, but with a backup QB there I have to think this is ours to lose.

We have a wacky start to the game – fumbling the opening kickoff and recovering it, and then going for a 4th down on our second possession to set up a TD for the lead. We pull out to a 14-0 lead by the end of the first quarter, and are looking very solid thus far. We lead 21-7 and block a FG attempt at the end of the first half to keep it that way.

In a sloppy effort, our lead drains to 21-17, even though we are not playing badly other than penalties and turnovers. We kick a late 4Q FG to make it 24-17, and force a 4th-and-12, but they convert it and stay alive with 2 minutes left. Finally the turnover plague hits them, and we snag a fumble at midfield. Three unimaginative run plays and we punt, they take over at their 20 with a minute and no time outs. They go into “bombs away” mode and it’s over. Closer game than I expected, but we move on.

Conference Championship: Minnesota (11-5-1) at Tampa Bay (14-3)

The Vikes are a serious team, but we are still favored here by 4 points, fairly solid. Their QB Kenneth James looks like a future superstar, a 2nd year guy already a major passing threat after they picked him at 1(2) last season. Pretty solid team, and behind James they might be a factor for a while.

The opening drives are frustrating – they move the ball but miss a long FG, we move the ball but then suffer a terrible drive-killing penalty. Defense and offensive miscues keep things scoreless until they break off a short pass for a home run and take a 2nd quarter lead. We are getting “familiar” messages already, before halftime, which doesn’t sound good to me. However, we overcome that and score a tying TD, and then recover a fumble and convert that for another, and we lead 14-10 at the half, after a late Viking drive.

In the third quarter, things are all defense, until the Vikes pounce on a fumbled punt deep in our territory, and a one play drive gives them the 17-14 edge. After another punt pins us deep, the Vikes get an offside call resulting in a safety – bad to worse. We get a stop, and get the ball back with under three minutes, trailing by five. A long pass to Dickens puts us quickly into position at their 25. The next completion is to one of our off-the-street tight ends, down to the 9 yard line with 2:05 on the clock. Aafter a MIN offsides, we get Czyz into the end zone to take the lead, with the two-point conversion it’s now 22-19.

A short pass is incomplete, a bomb is defensed, and another short pass is blocked at the line – and it’s 4th and 10 for the Vikes. Their young QB inadvisably tucks it under but comes up short, and we take over. We get a first down on three running plays, and that punches our ticket for the big game.

Superbowl: Baltimore (14-5) vs. Tampa Bay (15-3)

The Ravens also look like a team who will be tough for a while, with QB Archie Downs (remember him?) now a fully developed 4th year pro and owner of a very solid 89/54 ratio in his career so far. They also have a tremendous 3rd year RB in Donovan Paddock, and that tandem seems to fuel them. They seem solid up front, but I reckon we can get the ball downfield on them. I expect we will score a bit, we’ll try to keep them in check.

Things open up in a bad way – we allow Beason to get sacked on his first dropback, but then on his next he completes for a 16 yard first down strike to Dickens. We still punt, and give Baltimore the chance to get the early edge. They move to our side of the field, but come up short on a long FG attempt, and we’re still even.

Our next possession starts out with all Todd Reed, and he delivers a couple of first downs. Then Czyz breaks free on a 26 yard catch for the game’s first score. Baltimore takes the cue, and they let their RB Paddock carry the load on their responding TD drive. We go three and out, and then Baltimore is driving again, but they fumble it away in our territory, and we dodge the bullet. But we give it right back with an interception, and the Ravens quickly put it in for a 14-7 edge. This does not have a good feeling about it right now.

After a trade of short possessions, we get good field position and are set up for a FG by a nice run from Todd reed, and pull within 4 points. We get the ball back late in the quarter, a catch from Czyz gets us into scoring position again, and we hit another kick to make it a one point margin at the half, though we have been outgained by 90 yards already, and we have no answer at all for paddock who had over 120 combined yards.

Early in the 3rd, Baltimore opts to go for it on 4th and 2 from their own 43 – they connect, but have to punt soon after anyhow, so no major momentum swing there. Two catches from Deberry set us up for another kick, and we take the lead 16-14. At our 37, we recover a fumble, and have a chance to really take command of the game – but cannot make progress, and instead settle for a field position gain after a punt. But the Ravens respond with a full-field drive, and they put it in the endzone again to retake the lead, 21-16 with about nine minutes left. We are going to look at this three FGs and see missed opportunities, I fear.

Beason gets sacked again (he’s been swamped all day) and fumbes the ball away – we are in deep trouble now. They get a quick toss to the TE that turns into a 36 yard TD and a big lead. We have under six minutes to make up 12 points.

Things get started with two completions to Czyz and Dickens, and we are in position to score quickly – just what we needed. Deberry is in the end zone, and we are back to a 5 point edge. Our defense responds to the call, makes the stop on three and out, and we get the ball back at our 23, with three minutes left. First play is a strike to some guy playing TE, and the Ravens tack on an unnecessary roughness penalty to add 15 more – they appear to be coming unglued. Czyz for 14, and we are to their 35 yard line, almost too quickly. A sack and a long incomplete pass force us into 3rd down and 16, though – a tough spot. Another bomb, great. So, 4th and 16 from their 41 – this is probably the game…

Another bomb, another incomplete pass, and we hand the ball back over.

We make the stop as Baltimore is in the don’t-even-try offense, and we get the ball at our 20, no time outs left, and 1:23 on the clock. It could be worse.

But the first play is a pick, and it just got worse. That’s all she wrote – Baltimore 28, Tampa Bay 23.

[QuikSand]

2028 Season Coda

Can’t be upset about a conference championship.

The team exceeded expectations, and has now pretty clearly arrived as a major title contender. We are going to have some attrition from veteran players in the next couple of seasons, but I don’t see why we wouldn’t just try to retain the status quo, more or less, and keep on doing what we’re doing.

Our late-season renegotiation was with standout CB Billy Shea. Even if he hasn’t had that monster season, that’s a lot of big red bars to put out on the field. He will earn $13.5 each of the next three seasons. This is the sort of thing that will be making things tougher down the road for us.


In the season awards, Bryant Czyz gets a first team honor, and CB Billy Shea second team. Those are basically our two cornerstone players. QB Kendall Beason led the league in TDs and passer rating – I really expected he might make the honors list too, but he must have just missed out.

[QuikSand]

Seems like the text of my 2028 draft, and analysis of same, went missing -- I know I wrote it up, but it isn't here, nor in the source document I type stuff into. Sorry about that. One more offseason coming soon.

[QuikSand]

2029 offseason

Well, I guess after a bye week and conference championship, the team is officially in “maintain” mode, rather than “build” mode.

The retirement list for this year includes…wait for it… QB Kendall Beason. Didn’t see that coming, and it places quite a hitch in our “stay on top” plan. We also lose SS Rico Booker, who had basically phased out anyhow. In addition, we have a contract blowup from RT Kevin Coleman, so he has to be released to free up $37m under this year’s cap. LB Drew Leal is also in a year intended to be a throwaway, but at $13.5m, we can at least wait and see whether it’s absolutely necessary to cut him.

We maintain our front office staff, and decide to put the franchise tag on LB Dixon Daniels, a 9th year guy who has been very good as our weak-size rusher. That’s a $10.6m ticket, so he too might get walking papers if we can’t work things out under the cap. We sit at around $30 in usable space, but we don’t have a serious QB signed, either, so I’m not sure what sort of room we will really have.


Okay – roster math time:

40 players currently signed
1 restricted free agent signing
7 unrestricted free agent signings
7 draft picks
--
55 players


This isn’t a terrible spot to be in – we could conceivably even be forced to cut someone like LB Leal, and still be okay at 53. We clearly have some deadweight that could go, too, if it came to that. No need to panic to get bodies, at least not this year.

Okay, on to the roster planning…

[QuikSand]

2029 Free Agency

We have a few ways to go with our one reneg here – one obvious place is to extend with our DE Arnold Ingram, rated 79/79 by our scout. But, to be honest, what are we getting for all those big red bars? A career PR% of 5.1, and 6-9 sacks a year, not that inspiring. He’s seeking about $21m a year, so a deal with him really ties up resources for us. I think we ride out this season, and then look into a tag or walk situation for next year.

WR Bryant Czyz is the guy who makes the most sense, then. He delivered on his massive talent last year, and even though we are deep at WR, he is a special talent. 4 years, $82million and a $24m bonus later – he is locked up. Wow. Just like that, we’re down to $17m in cap space for this year. Drew Leal is getting worried.


We also have to get to a legal roster, and that means adding: QB, QB, C, G, and LB

So, that guides some of my decision-making. I suspect we might be looking internally for a number of our contracts once again. I decide to go after LB Darnell Abercrombie as our RFA extension, as he is ready to step in and play at SLB if/when we release LB Leal. RG Bart Rodgers is the RFA we really need to keep, but he’s open to a fat long term deal and I instead slot him in ad our 5yr contract, and he will make $10m a year going forward.

My quest for a QB starts here, and I am immediately disappointed by the free agent group. I see 8th year Ryan Williams, a guy with a career passer rating of about 80 and who seems to be pick-prone… and he’s about as appetizing as it gets. There’s a 7th year guy with decent bars but almost no playing experience – he will be a guy I might look at, too. Nobody bowls me over. It would be pretty risky to sit back and wait for the post-draft late free agency to see what we could come up with, but right now that is my leaning. 3rd year man Jose Swartz, rated 33/42 by our scouts and due for another drop in camp, is sitting as our only signed QB and the effective incumbent for the starting job. On a team with this much overall talent, that is really worrisome.

Pushed at the position, I decide the safe thing to do is re-sign our own RFA QB Tito Daylo, who takes a four year deal. He’s not great, but is not bad, and can probably handle a short-passing offense okay. I suspect we may be heading that way anyhow.

Indeed, LB Leal has to get his papers so we can get our FA offers out there. With that cleared up, LB is a need area, but we manage to address most of my main concerns with some limited FA dabbling.

Reneg – WR Bryant Czyz, 4y $82m
RFA – SLB Darnell Abercrombie, 3y $4.2m
1YR – SS Clyde Sporer, $2.2m
2YR – C Phil Brennan, $11m ($5m bonus)
3YR -
4YR – QB Tito Daylo, essentially 3y minsal w/ team option to reneg
5YR – RG Bart Rodgers, $50m (RFA)
6YR – RG Heath Jarvis, $71m (essentially 3y $3.3m)
7YR – RB Edward Swift, $91m (essentially 3y $5.6m)

RB Edward Swift is pretty much a clone of our current RB Todd Reed, a guy with decent speed and some receiving skills. I don’t know which one would start, but this insures us from having one injury send us to RB oblivion like we experienced last year.

S Sporer is just a veteran fill-in at a position where we can use some patch-over help, a decent coverage safety. The one year deal is fine, he’s unlikely to be a guy we’d want for too long anyhow.

I’m leaving the 3 year slot open for whomever might pop up after the draft.


So – everyone signs quickly, and we are up to 46 players on contract as we head into the draft. This is apparently going to work out rather neatly.

[QuikSand]

2029 Rookie Draft

I am really, really hoping that one of the QBs I like slips to the end of the first round – but that hope fades quickly as four of the first five picks are QB. SO, that wipes out my real hope there – there was one uber-monster QB who went 1.1 (remember this name -- 1. Tennessee - Marsh, Ellis, QB, Nebraska) but my hopes were pinned to the third guy, who went with pick 1.3 (3. Oakland - Moore, Marcus, QB, New Mexico).

Well, I would like to take a DE here, in anticipation of letting Arnold Ingram walk after next season, but nothing appetizing appears here. Now I’m getting itchy for another QB, but I feel he’s likely to last another round, maybe two – so who should we take with our 1st this year? Stud fullback? Hate spending an early pick there. Best DE available? I’m uninspired. I decide to play it safe, basically, and just take the QB that my scout tagged as VU, and be done with it.

Pick Pos Name                  Grd Adj 4TBAJP Dev O/U Scout  Comments
1.31 QB  Timothy Murphy        5.0 5.7 -++    22% VU  13/53  35/14 core gives hope, scout pick
2.31 TE  Renaldo Crockett      5.3 4.6 +!!!   39% AS  15/31  giant combine, couldn’t resist
3.31 SLB Donnie Hastings (SILB)5.0 4.8 -+++-  63% VU  29/50  Run stopper bar, scout likes him   
4.31 WR  Jimmy Moore           4.2 4.4 + ++-  24% NA  15/25  Good combine, look for creeping
5.31 CB  Frank Gale            4.4 4.5 + +--+ 40% NA  12/27  Good combine, look for creeping
6.31 C   Matthew Montemayor    4.9 4.2 +-++   20% NA  18/49  Hope he holds some of his bars
7.31 MLB Teddy O’Donnell (SLB) 4.0 3.9 -+   + 43% NA  16/34  Potential for coverage skills

I am quickly convinced that my QB would have lasted to round 2, probably round 3. So it goes. I smell a bust there anyhow.

I don’t trust my scout that this combine stud TE isn’t going to break out like crazy, and spend our second rounder on him on spec. We mostly just fill in roster gaps from there on out, nobody I’m too enchanted with, we will hope for some creeping potential.

[QuikSand]

By the way, it seems that in 2028 I changed to using my one-letter combine abbreviations and explained the change, but that writeup completely disappeared. Anyway -- the 4TBAJP you see above is just a simple reflection of the six combines, reading left to right, in the draft summary screen. For each letter, I used a simple code showing the color:

! = red (outstanding)
+ = blue (good)
- = green (poor)

...and I leave blank the many "average" results that are in black test in-game.

So, with my TE from this draft, Crockett was attractive to me because he had three ! ratings, and one +... that's a classic workout warrior, and I was willing to overlook the tepid interview results. I am pretty certain he will creep to being a very solid player.

Hope that's a useful explanation, and makes the presentation more useful than just listing the raw data and leaving it to you to figure out what's good. For players with exceptional combines, I plan to note the specific value in my "comments."

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Well, I guess after a bye week and conference championship, the team is officially in “maintain” mode, rather than “build” mode.

Hope you'll be able to stick with it. Good read so far.