2010-11 Hot Stove League Thread - Grienke is a Baller

[lordscarlet]

It was nice having, you Dunn. Good luck in Chicago.

[SirFozzie]

Well, if this is true, (and of course, the caveats, the physical and the extension).. to get Gonzales and not give up any of our existing talent.. GO FOR IT sox!

"The Red Sox are very close to acquiring Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres, tweets Dan Hayes of the North County Times. Hayes says the trade would just involve Gonzalez and not Heath Bell, whose name has come up in other rumors. Hayes adds that the deal will only involve minor leaguers - not players such as Jacoby Ellsbury, Daniel Bard, or Jed Lowrie. Top Red Sox prospect Casey Kelly would definitely be involved."

[SirFozzie]

And I just saw this in the last hour from Buster Olney's twitter feed:


Sources: The San Diego Padres and Boston Red Sox are on the verge of finishing an Adrian Gonzalez deal. Players all agreed to. The Red Sox are far enough along in the conversation that they are trying to work out a new contract with Adrian Gonzalez.

[Poli]

Cards trade for Theriot. Most everyone I know seems happy about that here. I must be the one Scrooge. I thought he was terrible with the Cubs. I'd rather have Ryan.

[miked]

Originally Posted by RomaGoth

No way is he worth even close to their original offer. It is a joke.



I have always liked Jeter, but this concept that he is larger than life, or some sort of fucking baseball God, is just ridiculous. It is just media propaganda being shoved down our throats, and as fans we sometimes need to just say enough is enough already. There is absolutely nothing Jeter can do for the Yankees that another average SS can't do at least as well at this point. Financially, it makes no sense at all to pay a guy for what he did in the past, when he earned what he was perceived to be worth during that time.



So? What he did 10 years ago means nothing now, it won't help them win one game in 2011. What you say above though is really the brunt of the problem with the Yankees, and is something that has been festering with me more and more over the years:



I just can't keep watching this team overpay for guys like A.J. Burnett, Kevin Brown, Nick Johnson, Jorge Posada (retire already!), and now it appears, Derek Jeter.

As a Yankees fan, I am worn out.

How about 2 seasons ago when he hit .330 with 18 HR? I think there's so much Jeter-hate around here, but you are forgetting we are talking about a guy with a .314 career average, one who averages over 200 hits and 25 steals in a season. Is he a great fielder, no. He's probably average. But we are talking about a team that paid the likes of Pavano and Wright a combined 80M to pitch in probably 10 games over several seasons. This team has no problems opening up their wallets for overrated talent on other teams, why are they now drawing the line with Jeter. Sure, I don't think he's worth 20M over 7 seasons. But for the guy who has been the face of your franchise for a decade and a half, and clearly one of the most marketable (when's the last time he tested positive, or was caught in some kind of scandal), it's just silly to draw the line now. I mean, just to put it into perspective, this is the first time since his rookie season that he hit under .270, and now he's the most overrated SS in the game? He's not even the most overrated SS in NY.

[Chief Rum]

Great move by the Red Sox, although it will be interesting to see if they have "Hanley Ramirez" regret on Kelly down the line. But for this year and the near future, this is a terrific move for them (and it ups the ante on the Angels, Yankees and Rangers).

[jbergey22]

Wasnt it the Red Sox that coined the phrase "evil empire" on the Yankees?

And yes great deal for the Red Sox. I wouldnt be suprised to see him hit 50 home runs playing his home games in Fenway. Its kind of depressing to see all of these great players come to the American League however.

Sorry Padres fans.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Poli

Cards trade for Theriot. Most everyone I know seems happy about that here. I must be the one Scrooge. I thought he was terrible with the Cubs. I'd rather have Ryan.

Cards fans must really be missing Eckstein to be happy about getting Theriot.

[molson]

Originally Posted by miked

How about 2 seasons ago when he hit .330 with 18 HR? I think there's so much Jeter-hate around here, but you are forgetting we are talking about a guy with a .314 career average, one who averages over 200 hits and 25 steals in a season. Is he a great fielder, no. He's probably average. But we are talking about a team that paid the likes of Pavano and Wright a combined 80M to pitch in probably 10 games over several seasons. This team has no problems opening up their wallets for overrated talent on other teams, why are they now drawing the line with Jeter. Sure, I don't think he's worth 20M over 7 seasons. But for the guy who has been the face of your franchise for a decade and a half, and clearly one of the most marketable (when's the last time he tested positive, or was caught in some kind of scandal), it's just silly to draw the line now. I mean, just to put it into perspective, this is the first time since his rookie season that he hit under .270, and now he's the most overrated SS in the game? He's not even the most overrated SS in NY.

He's no better than Marco Scutaro now. And his new contract is probably going to pay more per year than the Red Sox will pay to extend Adrian Gonzalez.

[AFShadow]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Great move by the Red Sox, although it will be interesting to see if they have "Hanley Ramirez" regret on Kelly down the line. But for this year and the near future, this is a terrific move for them (and it ups the ante on the Angels, Yankees and Rangers).

Great deal for the Sox and it still leaves them room to pursue either Crawford or more likely Werth.

[AFShadow]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Ok, Rockies, i can understand wanting to keep Tulowitzki around longer.. but um, he's already yours for the next FOUR years(three plus option), and you're going to sign him to a SIX YEAR EXTENSION? That's right, You can probably pencil in Troy Tulowitzki to the SS position for the Rockies in 2020.. when he's 36, and making something like $20 million (6 years, $115-120 Million is the rumored extension to the existing contract)

I agree stupid. This will help the owners to keep selling tickets but he's not aplayer that is going to carry them to a pennant and forget WS rings. I could see a deal like this for Gonzo but Tulo ...ehh.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Ok, Rockies, i can understand wanting to keep Tulowitzki around longer.. but um, he's already yours for the next FOUR years(three plus option), and you're going to sign him to a SIX YEAR EXTENSION? That's right, You can probably pencil in Troy Tulowitzki to the SS position for the Rockies in 2020.. when he's 36, and making something like $20 million (6 years, $115-120 Million is the rumored extension to the existing contract)

It worked out well in Todd Helton's last couple years

SI

[sterlingice]

Shameless plug as one of my RR posts got quoted over on Beyond the Box Score

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/201...ver-the-last-5

"This, again, cuts to the heart of the point I’ve made at least a dozen times on this site: I just can’t accept using WAR as our shorthand for valuing a player when it’s so heavily influenced by wildly fluctuating fielding."

SI

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by miked

How about 2 seasons ago when he hit .330 with 18 HR? I think there's so much Jeter-hate around here, but you are forgetting we are talking about a guy with a .314 career average, one who averages over 200 hits and 25 steals in a season.

He turns 37 in June so career averages don't mean shit at this point.

Originally Posted by miked

Is he a great fielder, no. He's probably average.

Probably average? Really? He's probably the worst fielding every day shortstop in baseball and has ranked in the bottom five nearly every year of his career.

Originally Posted by miked

and now he's the most overrated SS in the game? He's not even the most overrated SS in NY.

Even factoring in Reyes' injury shortened '09 season he's been at worst Jeter's equal the past 4 seasons.


Jeter is a first ballot Hall of Famer. There's zero doubt about it. Jeter is not a good baseball player at this stage of his career and has no business playing shortstop for a team trying to get to the postseason. The Yankees are going to grossly overpay him no matter what happens here. On the open market he'd be lucky to walk away with 2 years and $15 million. He should be thankful for what the Yankees are giving him because if they really wanted to be assholes they would have sent him out onto the market to shop for offers and laughed when he came back with his tail tucked between his legs begging for the original offer.

[miked]

Originally Posted by molson

He's no better than Marco Scutaro now. And his new contract is probably going to pay more per year than the Red Sox will pay to extend Adrian Gonzalez.

Heh, are you joking?

[molson]

Originally Posted by miked

Heh, are you joking?

About Scutaro or Gonzalez?

Well, either way the answer is no.

Jeter:
90 OPS+
1.3 WAR

Scutaro:
92 OPS+
2.2 WAR

After a little more research though, Gonzalez could get slightly more money per year than Jeter (he'll definitely get more years), but it will be close. Jeter could end up with 18/year and Gonzalez maybe 21/year.

[miked]

Yes, you managed to pull the worst year in Jeter's career and compare it to the best in a mediocre player's. Awesome, is this what passes for baseball knowledge?

Anyway, arguing with idiots is fun and all, and Jeter's season may be more indicative of future performance but it's hard to tell. We are talking about a guy who one year ago had an OPS+ of 125, WAR of 6.2. Scutaro has only had an OPS+ over 100 once in his entire career. Plus, more people are buying Jeter jerseys and he gives them a good image. My point really wasn't that he is going to put up great numbers, but more that it's silly for the Yanks to pull the poor us card now when they are probably still paying Pavano and Karsay.

[molson]

Originally Posted by miked

Yes, you managed to pull the worst year in Jeter's career and compare it to the best in a mediocre player's. Awesome, is this what passes for baseball knowledge?

Anyway, arguing with idiots is fun and all, and Jeter's season may be more indicative of future performance but it's hard to tell. We are talking about a guy who one year ago had an OPS+ of 125, WAR of 6.2. Scutaro has only had an OPS+ over 100 once in his entire career. Plus, more people are buying Jeter jerseys and he gives them a good image. My point really wasn't that he is going to put up great numbers, but more that it's silly for the Yanks to pull the poor us card now when they are probably still paying Pavano and Karsay.

Yes, I arbitrarily picked the most recent season for both players.

[molson]

Originally Posted by miked

Anyway, arguing with idiots is fun and all

Was this necessary?

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by miked

My point really wasn't that he is going to put up great numbers, but more that it's silly for the Yanks to pull the poor us card now when they are probably still paying Pavano and Karsay.

Where are the Yankees pulling the "poor us" card? They're likely going to pay Jeter more than 3 times what he'd get on the market.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by molson

Was this necessary?

When you don't have a strong argument it is.

[molson]

Originally Posted by miked

My point really wasn't that he is going to put up great numbers, but more that it's silly for the Yanks to pull the poor us card now when they are probably still paying Pavano and Karsay.

So what do you think Jeter is worth a year?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by molson

So what do you think Jeter is worth a year?

I think an important thing to take into consideration is that "what Jeter is worth to the Yankees" =/= "what Jeter is worth to any other team".

SI

[molson]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I think an important thing to take into consideration is that "what Jeter is worth to the Yankees" =/= "what Jeter is worth to any other team".

SI

Very true. That should be a part of the question.

So I want to know what miked thinks the Yankees should pay him a year, i.e. how much he thinks Jeter should be worth to them.

[miked]

Originally Posted by molson

So what do you think Jeter is worth a year?

Well, I'm talking about Jeter the package, not Jeter the guy who hit .275 last year or whatever. If you are the Yankees and you toss around stupid money to bring in guys like Karsay, and I look at lists like this MLB Salaries - CBSSports.com I'd say probably between 17-20M per year for 3-4 or something. I have no idea how much he'll take on the open market, probably less because he's clearly more valuable to the Yanks than to other teams. As I said, they've built him as the face of the franchise, his image has been fairly clean, he sells lots of Jerseys, the press love to talk about him, and outside of last season, puts most infielders to shame in terms of durability and performance.

Comparing to Marco Scutaro is idiotic, hence the prior statement. Clearly if you go into a discussion with the belief that Scutaro >> Jeter, there's not much intelligent conversation to be had.

[molson]

Originally Posted by miked

WI'd say probably between 17-20M per year for 3-4 or something.

That's a lot of jerseys

[molson]

Originally Posted by miked

Comparing to Marco Scutaro is idiotic, hence the prior statement. Clearly if you go into a discussion with the belief that Scutaro >> Jeter, there's not much intelligent conversation to be had.

On the field, Scutaro had a comparable 2010 to Jeter. That's who Jeter is as a player now, and it's only downhill from here.

But hey, I love the fact that the Yanks are going to pay a 40 or 41-year old SS $18 million. Not sure how they're "drawing the line" there, but whatever, you're the baseball genius.

[miked]

Yes, and we all know that comparing one season it's the best way to do it. I'm not a baseball genius, but like I said, if you think Scutaro gives you a better chance to win, we'll revisit this conversation later in the year. Big Papi put up an OPS+ of 101 2 seasons ago, I guess he was no better than Adam Laroche or Carlos Delgado.

[molson]

And it looks like it might be a done deal, 17/year for 3 years, with an option for 4.

So he'll still be the highest paid middle infielder in baseball (beating out Troy Tulowitzki's new contract)



Source: New York Yankees, Derek Jeter agree on contract - ESPN New York

[molson]

Originally Posted by miked

Yes, and we all know that comparing one season it's the best way to do it. I'm not a baseball genius, but like I said, if you think Scutaro gives you a better chance to win, we'll revisit this conversation later in the year. Big Papi put up an OPS+ of 101 2 seasons ago, I guess he was no better than Adam Laroche or Carlos Delgado.

Baseball players get worse into their late 30s.

[molson]

Originally Posted by miked

, if you think Scutaro gives you a better chance to win, we'll revisit this conversation later in the year.

They're comparable on the field, but Jeter costs 3X as much.

[SirFozzie]

Jeter's deal is 3/51, with a fourth year player option for 8 million, (+9 million in earnable incentives), or acceoting a $3 million buy out.

[panerd]

Berkman to the Cards. I don't know about this one. Aren't there any outfielders out there that are even older and more broken down?

[sterlingice]

Well, he's 34, iirc, which isn't terribly old. But he's not the body type that ages well and his knees are pretty bad.

If last year was an injury-riddled fluke, you could get a really nice bounce back year with his 2009 being reasonable expectations and his 2006-2008 averages being a reasonable ceiling. That said, his knees could just continue to get worse and he's what you saw in 2010.

Also, I don't think he's played OF in like 4 years.

SI

[Big Fo]

Originally Posted by molson

And it looks like it might be a done deal, 17/year for 3 years, with an option for 4.

So he'll still be the highest paid middle infielder in baseball (beating out Troy Tulowitzki's new contract)



Source: New York Yankees, Derek Jeter agree on contract - ESPN New York

I wonder how much money Cano will ask for in a year or two.

[AFShadow]

Originally Posted by molson

On the field, Scutaro had a comparable 2010 to Jeter. That's who Jeter is as a player now, and it's only downhill from here.

But hey, I love the fact that the Yanks are going to pay a 40 or 41-year old SS $18 million. Not sure how they're "drawing the line" there, but whatever, you're the baseball genius.

Nice.

[stevew]

I thought the Sox attempt to sign Mariano and non-tender Papelbon was pretty shrewd.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Well, he's 34, iirc, which isn't terribly old. But he's not the body type that ages well and his knees are pretty bad.

If last year was an injury-riddled fluke, you could get a really nice bounce back year with his 2009 being reasonable expectations and his 2006-2008 averages being a reasonable ceiling. That said, his knees could just continue to get worse and he's what you saw in 2010.

Also, I don't think he's played OF in like 4 years.

SI

I personally think he is done but like I am with all Tigers and all Bengals... now that he is a Cardinal I guess I will start pulling for a breakout year. I really hope something bigger and coming and this year isn't hinging on the additions of Theoriot and Berkman as the "missing pieces".

I don't see him getting much time at 1B here though.

[bhlloy]

Gonzo to Boston just draws a big red underline under how screwed up baseball economics is. What's the point of going to the ballpark in San Diego when a moderately successful year means you can't afford to keep any of your decent players and have to start building for 2013 onwards? Why spend any of that money on your team in the next 3 years? It's another Marlins situation except at least the Marlins won a WS before they blew it all up and started again.

Very interesting to me to see the different approach that the Rockies with Tulo and the Padres with Gonzalez and Bell have taken. San Diego's is probably more responsible in terms of creating a team that might one day have a shot at a WS but it's a fricking tightrope in terms of attendance, revenue and fan interest.

[MrBug708]

San Diego should be more than a one sport town, but it really is just a Chargers town.

[RomaGoth]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

San Diego should be more than a one sport town, but it really is just a Chargers town.

Only if they are winning.

[RomaGoth]

Terrible deal for the Yankees, paying Jeter 3x what he is worth is a friggin' joke.

*sigh*

[RedKingGold]

I get a kick out of fans complaining about "my team overpaid x player x amount of dollars, therefore, I'm disappointed."

I'm not paying the salaries, who gives a crap?

[panerd]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

I get a kick out of fans complaining about "my team overpaid x player x amount of dollars, therefore, I'm disappointed."

I'm not paying the salaries, who gives a crap?

If there is a maximum amount my team intends to pay for the entire team and they spend 8 million of that signing another player then there will be $8 million less to pay the original person they were going after. Don't know why getting upset about that is illogical.

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

I get a kick out of fans complaining about "my team overpaid x player x amount of dollars, therefore, I'm disappointed."

I'm not paying the salaries, who gives a crap?

Uhh then you're an idiot. Seriously, what the hell? You're a fan of the team, you want them to do well. What more is there to understand?

[ISiddiqui]

Indeed. And I think Yankees fans are worried what this is going to do for players like Robinson Cano, who are better than Jeter, and will be asking for a mega deal soon. Yah, the Yankees have a lot of money, but it ain't unlimited.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Indeed. And I think Yankees fans are worried what this is going to do for players like Robinson Cano, who are better than Jeter, and will be asking for a mega deal soon. Yah, the Yankees have a lot of money, but it ain't unlimited.

Pretty damn close. When was the last time they wanted a player that they didnt get via Free Agency?

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by RomaGoth

Terrible deal for the Yankees, paying Jeter 3x what he is worth is a friggin' joke.

*sigh*

How do you know what he is worth?

Is there another 5 time world champion that they can get for cheaper? A guy that goes out there every day and keeps all them egos in check? A manager on the field? A person you can identify as a Yankee who actually is a player that doesnt hurt the "evil empire" image people want to throw on them.

Lets call a spade a spade here. He is much more valuable than any sabermetric stat will give him credit for.

Not to mention it is going to keep team moral up. Can you imagine how underappreciated some of the other players would feel if a guy like Derek Jeter is cut loose?

Both sides should be more than happy so we can move on.

Are you positive you are a Yankees fan? Im just trying to picture in my head if I was a Yankees fan why on gods earth I would not want them to re-sign Derek Jeter. I would assume he was one of the the most popular players they have had and that fans are celebrating having him back for atleast 3 more years. I really wouldnt give a shit if they paid him 5 million or 50 million as he is our guy and no one else is having him.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

How do you know what he is worth?

Is there another 5 time world champion that they can get for cheaper? A guy that goes out there every day and keeps all them egos in check? A manager on the field? A person you can identify as a Yankee who actually is a player that doesnt hurt the "evil empire" image people want to throw on them.

Lets call a spade a spade here. He is much more valuable than any sabermetric stat will give him credit for.

Not to mention it is going to keep team moral up. Can you imagine how underappreciated some of the other players would feel if a guy like Derek Jeter is cut loose?

Both sides should be more than happy so we can move on.

Are you positive you are a Yankees fan? Im just trying to picture in my head if I was a Yankees fan why on gods earth I would not want them to re-sign Derek Jeter. I would assume he was one of the the most popular players they have had and that fans are celebrating having him back for atleast 3 more years. I really wouldnt give a shit if they paid him 5 million or 50 million as he is our guy and no one else is having him.

Take it easy, Minka.

[Atocep]

It's funny that Jeter likely lost the '06 MVP vote because of his lack of leadership that year yet all some want to remember is that Jeter has some mystical ability to lead teams to great things.