Ultimate 2012-2013 What If Sports NCAA basketball tournament

[collegesportsfanms]

OK guys, I'm back and have a renewed spirit to do another WIS report. I was contemplating on exactly what to do, and I came to the conclusion of including EVERY D1 NCAA basketball team that played in the 2012-2013 season. By my count there are 347 teams. Here is the format I will use:

Part 1:

All 347 teams will be placed in groups for a round robin tournament. I am going to have 57 groups of 6 teams and 1 group of 5 teams, totalling 347 teams. In each group, every team will play each team twice, once on the road, once at home. The top 2 teams from each group plus the 12 best teams that came in third place will advance to a 128 single elimination tournament. The groups will be randomly drawn, making sure that there is no more than 1 team from a conference in a group, and trying to make the groups fairly even, (a couple power teams, a couple mid-majors and a couple small conference teams.) I will do my best with this.

Part 2:

The top 128 finishers, as I mentioned, will go to a single elimination tournament. I am also debating on having some secondary tournaments as well, if time permits.

I will try to group all the teams and have that done by next weekend.

Any comments/questions/concerns? Please let me know, thanks.

[collegesportsfanms]

I have finally managed to get the teams put into groups, and am ready to start announcing the groups. I took the rankings right off the power rankings from realtimerpi.com. I used the s-curve to decide the groups, rearranging things as needed to make sure that multiple teams from a conference didn't get into the same group. I was going to have the top team in every group have a rank, but I have changed my mind. That would be 58 ranked teams. I'm just going to rank the top 25 teams based on the power rankings I mentioned earlier.

As I am announcing the groups, if you guys would look at the groups to make sure I didn't get a team in there twice, or make sure I didn't get 2 or more conference teams in the same group, that would be great. I'm pretty sure I didn't, but its always nice to have extra eyes. Without further adieu, its time to start announcing the groups!

Group 1

#1 Louisville (Big East, 35-5, 14-4)
North Carolina Central (22-9, 15-1)
Illinois State (MVC, 18-15, 8-10)
Coastal Carolina (Big South, 14-15, 9-7)
TCU (Big 12, 11-21, 2-16)
Grambling State (SWAC, 0-28, 0-18)

2 things strike me about this group. Louisville should walk through it with ease, and it'll be a shock if Grambling State wins a game. Aside from Louisville, I actually like Illinois State to come out of this group. N.C. Central and Coastal Carolina could make a run, and we already know TCU had enough to beat Kansas one game in the actual season. I still feel it'll be Louisville and Illinois State advancing from this group.



jGroup 2

#2 Duke (ACC, 30-6, 14-4)
St. Johns (Big East, 17-16, 8-10)
Vermont (America East, 21-12, 11-5)
Missouri State (MVC, 11-22, 7-11)
Cal St. Northridge (Big West, 14-17, 5-13)
Maryland Eastern Shore (MEAC, 2-26, 2-14)

Duke seems to have the run of this group, and I can honestly see St. Johns, Vermont, or Missouri State sneaking into that second spot. I'll go with St. Johns, but Vermont or Missouri State could be in contention for a wildcard spot.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 3

#3 Gonzaga (WCC, 32-3, 16-0)
Mercer (Atlantic Sun, 24-12, 14-4)
Western Michigan (MAC, 22-13, 10-6)
IPFW (Summit, 16-17, 7-9)
Rhode Island (Atlantic Sun, 8-21, 3-13)
Binghamton (America East, 3-27, 1-15)

Although I think Gonzaga was way overrated last year, to say this group should be a walk in the park is an understatement. Gonzaga has no business losing to any of these teams. As far as the second bid goes, it's a total toss up. But I'm going to give the nod to Western Michigan.



Group 4

#4 Kansas (Big 12, 31-6, 14-4)
Iona (MAAC, 20-14, 11-7)
Kent St. (MAC, 21-14, 9-7)
Louisiana Lafayette (Sun Belt, 13-20, 8-12)
Loyola Marymount (WCC, 11-23, 1-15)
Kennesaw State (Atlantic Sun, 3-27, 2-16)

I'm not gonna say that Kansas will run through this group undefeated, I think they'll lose at least 1, maybe 2 games. But they will win the group, and I think Kent St. will finish second. Iona COULD be in line for an at-large berth, but it'll be close.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 5

#5 Indiana (Big 10, 29-7, 14-4)
Dayton (Atlantic Ten, 17-14, 7-9)
Canisius (MAAC, 20-14, 11-7)
Buffalo (MAC, 14-20, 7-9)
Lipscomb (Atlantic Sun, 12-18, 7-11)
Lamar (3-28, 1-17)

As with most of the top teams so far, Indiana is the heavy favorite to win the group. I think Dayton will have enough to get the second spot out of this group.

Group 6

#6 Miami (ACC, 29-7, 15-3)
Wright State (Horizon, 23-13, 10-6)
Northeastern (Colonial, 20-13, 14-4)
Brown (Ivy, 13-15, 7-7)
North Florida (Atlantic Sun, 13-19, 8-10)
New Orleans (Independent, 8-18, none)

I think Wright State could overtake Miami to win the group, but it would take a lot of luck. I think Northeastern has a fair chance as well. I pick Miami to win the group, Wright State in second, and Northeastern in a close third and in at-large contention.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 7

#7 Michigan (Big 10, 31-8, 12-6)
George Mason (Colonial, 22-16, 10-8)
Wagner (Northeast, 19-12, 12-6)
Pepperdine (WCC, 12-18, 4-12)
Appalachian State (Southern, 15-16, 10-8)
Mississippi Valley State (SWAC, 5-23, 5-13)

Michigan might have a test with George Mason, but the Wolverines should still be able to take the group. George Mason should have enough to see off Wagner for the second spot out of the group.



Group 8

#8 Ohio State (Big 10, 29-8, 13-5)
Air Force (MWC, 18-14, 8-8)
Princeton (Ivy, 17-11, 10-4)
St. Francis (NY) (Northeast, 12-18, 8-10)
Mississippi State (SEC, 10-22, 4-14)
Furman (Southern, 7-24, 3-15)

This isn't a gimme group for Ohio State. I could easily see Air Force or even Princeton winning the group. I think the Buckeyes will win, and I'm taking Princeton with the second spot.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 9

#9 Syracuse (Big East, 30-10, 11-7)
Western Illinois (Summit, 22-9, 13-3)
Nebraska (Big 10, 15-18, 5-13)
UC Davis (Big West, 14-17, 9-9)
Southeastern Louisiana (Southland, 13-18, 10-8)
South Carolina State (MEAC, 6-24, 2-14)

Syracuse is going to have to play very well to come out of this group unscathed. With the exception of S. Carolina State, this is a fairly even group. I think Syracuse will win the group, but I actually like Nebraska to be the second place team.



Group 10

#10 Michigan State (Big 10, 27-9, 13-5)
St. Josephs (Atlantic 10, 18-14, 8-8)
Boston College (ACC, 16-17, 7-11)
Eastern Michigan (MAC, 16-18, 7-9)
North Texas (Sun Belt, 12-20, 7-13)
UC Riverside (Big West, 6-25, 3-15)

One of these groups is going to have the top team not be the favorite, but not this group. I expect Michigan State to win this group, and St. Josephs to come in second. Look for BC or even E. Michigan to earn an at-large berth.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 11

#11 Florida (SEC, 29-8, 14-4)
Pacific (Big West, 22-13, 13-5)
Niagara (MAAC, 19-14, 13-5)
North Dakota (Big Sky, 16-17, 12-8)
Cornell (Ivy, 13-18, 5-9)
Presbytarian (Big South, 8-24, 4-12)

Shouldn't be a problem for Florida to win this group. Pacific and Niagara should battle for the second spot, I like Pacific to get it.



Group 12

#12 New Mexico (MWC, 29-6, 13-3)
Texas A&M (SEC, 18-15, 7-11)
Texas-Arlington (WAC, 19-14, 11-7)
DePaul (Big East, 11-21, 2-16)
Holy Cross (Patriot, 12-18, 4-10)
Northern Illinois (MAC, 5-25, 3-13)

New Mexico should win this group, and I think they'll get more of a test from Texas-Arlington. I think A&M will get passed by Texas-Arlington. New Mexico wins the group, Arlington is second.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 13

#13 Georgetown (Big East, 25-7, 14-4)
Washington (Pac 12, 18-16, 9-9)
Florida International (Sun Belt, 18-14, 11-9)
Cleveland State (Horizon, 14-18, 5-11)
McNeese State (Southland, 14-17, 7-11)
Idaho State (Big Sky, 6-24, 5-15)

Georgetown and Washington should walk through this group without much fight, although FIU could play spoiler for 1 if not both of the teams.



Group 14

#14 Marquette (Big East, 26-9, 14-4)
Indiana State (MVC, 18-15, 9-9)
Delaware (Colonial, 19-14, 13-5)
Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt, 14-18, 9-11)
CSU Bakersfield (Independent, 14-16, none)
Longwood (Big South, 8-25, 4-12)

Call me crazy but I'm feeling an upset out of this group. Most are going to say I'm nuts, but I'm actually going out on a limb and picking Delaware to win this group. Yes I said it.. Delaware. I do like Marquette as the second place team out of this group though.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 15

#15 Saint Louis (Atlantic 10, 28-7, 13-3)
UTEP (Conference USA, 18-14, 10-6)
Rutgers (Big East, 15-16, 5-13)
USC Upstate (Atlantic Sun, 16-17, 9-9)
Tennessee Tech (Ohio Valley, 12-17, 5-11)
IUPUI (Summit, 6-26, 1-15)

A very interesting group here, dominated by non BCS teams and 1 subpar BCS team. I have to pick St. Louie to win the group. The 2 spot is between UTEP and Rutgers. I think UTEP will have just enough to see off Rutgers.



Group 16

#16 Memphis (Conference USA, 31-5, 16-0)
Xavier (Atlantic 10, 17-14, 9-7)
Bryant (Northeast, 19-12, 12-6)
Sam Houston State (Southland, 17-17, 8-10)
Portland (WCC, 11-21, 4-12)
Howard (MEAC, 7-24, 4-12)

Don't discount Bryant, they can be a dangerous team and will give both Memphis and Xavier a run. I like Memphis to win the group, and Xavier to be runner-up, but I can easily see Bryant getting an at-large spot.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 17

#17 Kansas State (Big 12, 27-8, 14-4)
Richmond (Atlantic 10, 19-15, 8-8)
Vanderbilt (SEC, 16-17, 8-10)
Yale (Ivy, 14-17, 8-6)
Bowling Green (MAC, 13-19, 7-9)
Florida A&M (MEAC, 8-23, 5-11)

Not a walk in the park for Kansas State, but they should have enough to win the group. I think Vanderbilt will overtake Richmond for the second spot.



Group 18

#18 Arizona (Pac 12, 27-8, 12-6)
Lehigh (Patriot, 21-10, 10-4)
Texas (Big 12, 16-18, 7-11)
Idaho (WAC, 12-18, 7-11)
Sacramento State (Big Sky, 14-15, 8-12)
Citadel (Southern, 8-22, 5-13)

Arizona shouldn't have much trouble in this group. Texas I think will take second place, and Lehigh will contend for an at-large berth.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 19

#19 Wichita State (MVC, 30-9, 12-6)
Detroit (Horizon, 20-13, 12-4)
Georgia Tech (ACC, 16-15, 6-12)
UNC Asheville (Big South, 16-16, 10-6)
William and Mary (Colonial, 13-17, 7-11)
St. Francis (PA) (Northeast, 5-24, 5-13)

Being from Wichita, of course I am hoping Wichita State wins this group and makes a long run through the tournament. Detroit and Georgia Tech could prove to be formidable foes. I do thing the Shox will win the group, and Detroit gets second as the mid-majors prevail in this group.



Group 20

#20 Creighton (MVC, 28-8, 13-5)
Albany (America East, 24-11, 9-7)
Purdue (Big 10, 16-18, 8-10)
High Point (Big South, 17-14, 12-4)
Hampton (MEAC, 14-17, 11-5)
Portland State (Big Sky, 8-20, 5-15)

Some tough teams in this group, but I think Creighton will prevail. Albany should have enough to outlast Purdue and High Point for the second spot.

[sterlingice]

Good to see this moving, as of yesterday

SI

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 21

#21 Oregon (Pac 12, 28-9, 12-6)
Evansville (MVC, 21-15, 10-8)
Oral Roberts (Southland, 20-15, 13-5)
Morgan State (MEAC, 17-15, 10-6)
Winthrop (Big South, 14-17, 6-10)
Rice (Conference USA, 5-26, 1-15)

Oral Roberts and Morgan State could be the surprise teams of this group. I do like Oregon to win the group, but I'm taking Oral Roberts over Evansville for second place. Evansville and Morgan State could, with some luck, contend for an at-large berth.



Group 22

#22 Wisconsin (Big 10, 23-12, 12-6)
Murray State (Ohio Valley, 21-10, 10-6)
Rider (MAAC, 19-15, 12-6)
Drexel (Colonial, 13-18, 9-9)
Western Carolina (Southern, 14-19, 9-9)
Texas A&M-CC (Southland, 6-23, 5-13)

I like Murray State out of this group, I like the way they play. Wisconsin will be a solid second seed out of this group.

[collegesportsfanms]

Thanks sterlingice, I'm gonna try to get all the groups announced by tomorrow, Thursday at the latest, then get into the meat of this dynasty.

[sterlingice]

Well, you know I'm going to be watching what Kansas does but I'm not sure how strong of a team we had on paper last year.

SI

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 23

#23 Oklahoma State (Big 12, 24-9, 13-5)
Robert Morris (Northeast, 24-11, 14-4)
Arkansas State (Sun Belt, 19-12, 12-8)
Stetson (Atlantic Sun, 15-16, 11-7)
Wofford (Southern, 13-19, 7-11)
Old Dominion (Colonial, 5-25, 3-15)

Look out for Robert Morris, they could win this group. I think they'll finish second though, with Oklahoma State winning the group. Arkansas State could play spoiler though.



Group 24

#24 Butler (Atlantic 10, 27-9, 11-5)
Wyoming (Mountain West, 20-14, 4-12)
Long Beach State (Big West, 19-14, 14-4)
Central Connecticut State (Northeast, 13-17, 9-9)
Troy (Sun Belt, 12-21, 6-14)
Austin Peay (Ohio Valley, 8-23, 4-12)

I would like to see Long Beach State come out of this group, I've always been kind of a fan of theirs. I'm sure Butler will win the group. Wyoming I'm not sold on. I think Long Beach could beat them out for spot #2

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 25

#25 North Carolina (ACC, 25-11, 12-6)
Providence (Big East, 19-15, 9-9)
Jacksonville State (Ohio Valley, 17-11, 8-8)
Texas Tech (Big 12, 11-20, 3-15)
Delaware State (MEAC, 15-18, 8-8)
Louisiana-Monroe (Sun Belt, 4-23, 3-17)

Looks like a pretty easy group for the Tarheels to win. I'm not really seeing a team that would present a major challenge. So Carolina wins the group, Providence takes second.



Group 26

Pittsburgh (Big East, 24-9, 12-6)
Charleston (Southern, 24-11, 14-4)
Tennessee State (Ohio Valley, 18-15, 11-5)
Loyola (IL) (Horizon, 15-16, 5-11)
NJIT (Great West, 16-13, 6-2)
Hofstra (Colonial, 7-25, 4-14)

I think Charleston has a chance to upset Pittsburgh in this group. So much of a chance in fact, that I'm predicting it. Charleston wins the group, Pitt is second.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 27

VCU (Atlantic 10, 27-9, 12-4)
Arkansas (SEC, 19-13, 10-8)
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt, 20-16, 10-10)
SMU (Conference USA, 15-17, 5-11)
Columbia (Ivy, 12-16, 4-10)
UNC Greensboro (9-22, 6-12)

Arkansas and W. Kentucky are formidable opponents for VCU out of this group. I do like VCU's style, and I like them to win this group. I do feel that Arkansas will get spot #2 out of this group though.



Group 28

St. Marys (WCC, 28-7, 14-2)
Northwestern State (Southland, 23-9, 15-3)
Mount St. Marys (Northeast, 18-14, 11-7)
Southeast Missouri State (Ohio Valley, 17-16, 8-8)
Duquesne (Atlantic 10, 8-22, 1-15)
Coppin Sate (MEAC, 8-24, 5-11)

IMHO, St. Marys and Northwestern State should walk through this group as the top 2 finishers, and it could go either way as far as 1 and 2. I'll say St. Marys to win, Northwestern State runner up.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 29

Ole Miss (SEC, 27-9, 12-6)
Stanford (Pac 12, 19-15, 9-9)
Tulsa (Conference USA, 17-16, 8-8)
Ball State (MAC, 15-15, 8-8)
Northern Kentucky (Atlantic Sun, 11-16, 9-9)
Chicago State (Great West, 11-22, 3-5)

Ole Miss should win this group, although Stanford could pose a threat. I also think Tulsa could pose a threat for the second spot, but I'm still thinking Stanford will get it.



Group 30

UCLA (Pac 12, 25-10, 13-5)
LSU (SEC, 19-12, 9-9)
Southern University (23-10, 15-3)
Marshall (Conference USA, 13-19, 6-10)
Cal St. Fullerton (Big West, 14-18, 6-12)
Fairleigh Dickinson (Northeast, 7-24, 2-16)

Tough group in the top 3. Although Southern is a very small conference team, their record shows they can play some ball. I see them overtaking LSU for the second spot, with UCLA winning the group.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 31

LaSalle (Atlantic 10, 24-10, 11-5)
Loyola (MD) (MAAC, 23-12, 12-6)
Georgia (SEC, 15-17, 9-9)
Fresno State (Mountain West, 11-19, 5-11)
Northern Colorado (Big Sky, 13-18, 10-10)
Alabama State (SWAC, 10-22, 8-10)

I don't see a clear favorite in this group. LaSalle is the top team, but they are kinda weak I think. I wouldn't be surprised to see Georgia or even Fresno St. advance out of this group. For now though, I'm going to play it safe and say that LaSalle wins the group and Loyola finishes 2nd.



Group 32

Notre Dame (Big East, 25-10, 11-7)
Utah State (WAC, 21-10, 11-7)
James Madison (Colonial, 21-15, 11-7)
Penn State (Big 10, 10-21, 2-16)
Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun, 14-18, 9-9)
Alabama A&M (SWAC, 11-20, 6-12)

Another group where I don't see a clear favorite. Utah St. has always been a really solid team. I do like Notre Dame to win the group with Utah St. finishing 2nd.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 33

Colorado State (Mountain West, 26-9, 11-5)
Harvard (Ivy, 20-10, 11-3)
Seton Hall (Big East, 15-18, 3-15)
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC, 16-14, 15-3)
Georgia Southern (Southern, 14-19, 7-11)
Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Horizon, 8-24, 3-13)

Sad to see how far Milwaukee has dropped since the Bruce Pearl days. And is it just me or are the groups getting tougher and harder to pick a top 2? I really like Harvard, but I think Colorado State will win the group and Harvard will finish second. Don't sleep on Seton Hall though, they were 12-3in non-conference games. They could be a sleeper team.



Group 34

UNLV (Mountain West, 25-10, 10-6)
Central Florida (Conference USA, 20-11, 9-7)
Boston University (America East, 17-13, 11-5)
South Carolina (SEC, 14-18, 4-14)
Central Arkansas (Southland, 13-17, 7-11)
Navy (Patriot, 8-23, 2-12)

Being a Frank Martin fan, I'd really like to see South Carolina come out of this group. With a little bit of luck I think they can, but I don't see it happening. I've got to go with UNLV winning the group and C. Florida coming in 2nd.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 35

Belmont (Ohio Valley, 26-7, 14-2)
North Dakota State (Summit, 24-10, 12-4)
Tulane (Conference USA, 20-15, 6-10)
Georgia State (Colonial, 15-16, 10-8)
Auburn (SEC, 9-23, 3-15)
Alcorn State (SWAC, 10-24, 8-10)

You would have to think that the top 2 teams in this group will advance, those being Belmont and North Dakota State. Tulane might put some pressure on those teams, but I don't think they'll have enough. Belmont wins the group, ND State second.



Group 36

Temple (Atlantic 10, 24-10, 11-5)
Northern Iowa (MVC, 21-15, 11-7)
USC (Pac 12, 14-18, 9-9)
Army (Patriot, 16-15, 8-6)
Northern Arizona (Big Sky, 11-21, 8-12)
Tennessee-Martin (Ohio Valley, 9-21, 5-11)

Temple looks to be the favorite in this group, and they should win it fairly easy. The battle for second could be a 3 team race, and I'm picking USC to come out on top. Northern Iowa and Army could compete for an at-large berth however.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 37

California (Pac 12, 21-12, 12-6)
South Dakota State (Summit, 25-10, 13-3)
Towson (Colonial, 18-13, 13-5)
Manhattan (MAAC, 14-18, 9-9)
UC Santa Barbara (Big West, 11-20, 7-11)
UMBC (America East, 8-23, 5-11)

I'm going with an upset here and picking SD State to win this group. I think Cal and Towson will battle for spot #2, but I'll give it to Cal.



Group 38

Iowa State (Big 12, 23-12, 11-7)
East Carolina (Conference USA, 23-12, 9-7)
Elon (Southern, 21-12, 13-5)
Southern Illinois (MVC, 14-17, 6-12)
Marist (MAAC, 10-21, 6-12)
Seattle (WAC, 8-22, 3-15)

This is by far the toughest group I've had to predict 2 teams to advance. I don't see a clear favorite, I think any of 4 teams could win the group. Even Southern Illinois if they get hot. I do think Iowa St. will win the group... as for the runner up, I'm sure I'll get called crazy again, but I'm playing a hunch on Southern Illinois.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 39

Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun, 26-11, 13-5)
Charlotte (Atlantic 10, 21-12, 8-8)
Norfolk State (MEAC, 21-12, 16-0)
Morehead State (Ohio Valley, 15-18, 8-8)
Colgate (Patriot, 11-21, 5-9)
UMKC (Summit, 8-24, 5-11)

This is a very interesting group. FGCU were the darlings of the actual 2013 tournament, while Norfolk State has pulled off a couple huge upsets in the last few years as well. I'm playing a hunch again: Norfolk State wins the group, FGCU gets the runner up, and Charlotte gets an at-large berth.



Group 40

Illinois (Big 10, 23-13, 8-10)
Tennessee (SEC, 20-13, 11-7)
Houston (Conference USA, 20-13, 7-9)
North Carolina A&T (MEAC, 20-17, 8-8)
Central Michigan (MAC, 11-20, 4-12)
Siena (MAAC, 8-24, 4-14)

Another interesting group. I actually think Tennessee is stronger than Illinois, so I'm picking Tennessee to win the group. Spot #2 will be a battle between Illinois and Houston. I'm picking Illinois, with Houston in serious contention for an at-large berth.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 41

Middle Tennessee State (Sun Belt, 28-6, 19-1)
Eastern Kentucky (Ohio Valley, 25-10, 12-4)
UC Irvine (Big West, 21-16, 11-7)
Nevada (Mountain West, 12-19, 3-13)
Sacred Heart (Northeast, 9-20, 7-11)
Radford (Big South, 13-19, 7-9)

Shouldn't be any surprises in this group, Middle Tennessee should win it with Eastern Kentucky as the runner-up.



Group 42

Baylor (Big 12, 23-14, 9-9)
Arizona State (Pac 12, 22-13, 9-9)
South Alabama (Sun Belt, 17-13, 14-6)
Oakland (Summit, 16-17, 10-6)
Eastern Illinois (Ohio Valley, 11-21, 6-10)
Nicholls State (Southland, 9-21, 8-10)

Can't see any other team besides Baylor and Arizona State coming out of this group. Maybe a slight chance for S. Alabama, but unlikely. Baylor wins the group, Arizona St. runner up

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 43

Akron (MAC, 26-7, 14-2)
Villanova (Big East, 20-14, 10-8)
Lafayette (Patriot, 19-15, 10-4)
Clemson (ACC, 13-18, 5-13)
Bethune-Cookman (MEAC, 14-20, 7-9)
SIU-Edwardsville (Ohio Valley, 9-18, 5-11)

Tough group. I would even give a team like Clemson a chance to come out. Akron is a mid-major, but can a strong mid-major overtake middle of the pac BCS schools like Villanova and Clemson? I say yes. Akron wins the group, Nova is runner up.



Group 44

Bucknell (Patriot, 28-6, 12-2)
Santa Clara (WCC, 26-12, 9-7)
Long Island (Northeast, 20-14, 12-6)
Washington State (Pac 12, 13-19, 4-14)
Chattanooga (Southern, 13-19, 8-10)
Eastern Washington (Big Sky, 10-21, 7-13)

Another tough group. I think Santa Clara will win the group though, with Bucknell finishing second.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 45

Southern Miss (Conference USA, 27-10, 12-4)
Alabama (SEC, 23-13, 12-6)
St. Bonaventure (Atlantic 10, 14-15, 7-9)
Quinnipiac (Northeast, 15-16, 11-7)
Maine (America East, 11-19, 6-10)
Southern Utah (Big Sky, 11-20, 8-12)

Hard to think that Southern Miss and Alabama don't advance out of this group. The question is who wins it? I say Alabama, with Southern Miss runner-up.



Group 46

Minnesota (Big 10, 21-13, 8-10)
Denver (WAC, 22-10, 16-2)
Drake (MVC, 15-17, 7-11)
Youngstown State (Horizon, 18-16, 7-9)
Campbell (Big South, 13-20, 7-9)
New Hampshire (America East, 9-20, 5-11)

I think Denver might have enough to win the group, but I think they'll be runner up. Minnesota wins the group, but it'll be tough.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 47

N.C. State (ACC, 24-11, 11-7)
Ohio (MAC, 24-10, 14-2)
UAB (Conference USA, 16-17, 7-9)
Hawaii (Big West, 17-15, 10-8)
Texas State (WAC, 12-22, 5-13)
Jackson State (SWAC, 11-18, 9-9)

N.C. State should win this group, and Ohio should finish 2nd.



Group 48

Weber State (Big Sky, 30-7, 18-2)
New Mexico State (WAC, 24-11, 14-4)
Bradley (MVC, 18-17, 7-11)
Toledo (MAC, 15-13, 10-6)
American (Patriot, 10-20, 5-9)
Dartmouth (Ivy, 9-19, 5-9)

Another pretty solid group that is tough to determine a winner. Obviously Weber and New Mexico St. would be the favorites, but don't sleep on Bradley and Toledo. I however, have to go with Weber St. winning the group and New Mexico St. finishing second. Bradley and Toledo could fight for an at-large berth though.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 49

Louisiana Tech (WAC, 27-7, 16-2)
Virginia (ACC, 23-12, 11-7)
Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt, 17-15, 11-9)
Oregon State (Pac 12, 14-18, 4-14)
South Dakota (Summit, 10-20, 5-11)
Houston Baptist (Great West, 14-17, 3-5)

Louisiana Tech seems to be the favorite in this group, with Virginia taking second place.



Group 50

Iowa (Big 10, 25-13, 9-9)
Florida State (ACC, 18-16, 9-9)
Illinois-Chicago (Horizon, 18-16, 7-9)
Texas Southern (SWAC, 17-14, 16-2)
Texas-San Antonio (WAC, 10-22, 3-14)
UNC-Wilmington (Colonial, 10-20, 5-13)

Iowa should have enough to oversee Florida State and win the group. And Florida State comes in 2nd.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 51

San Diego State (Mountain West, 23-11, 9-7)
UMass (Atlantic 10, 21-12, 9-7)
Cal Poly (Big West, 18-14, 12-6)
Virginia Tech (ACC, 13-19, 4-14)
San Jose State (WAC, 9-20, 3-14)
Prairie View A&M (SWAC, 15-19, 8-10)

I look for UMass to win this group, and San Diego State finishing 2nd. Cal Poly with some luck could contend for an at-large berth.



Group 52

UConn (Big East, 20-10, 10-8)
Boise State (Mountain West, 21-11, 9-7)
Wisconsin-Green Bay (Horizon, 18-16, 10-6)
Charleston Southern (Big South, 19-13, 12-4)
Fordham (Atlantic 10, 7-24, 3-13)
Samford (Southern, 11-21, 9-9)

I like UConn to win this group.. barely. I think Boise State takes second, and I actually think Charleston Southern might get an at-large.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 53

Missouri (SEC, 23-11, 11-7)
Stony Brook (America East, 25-8, 14-2)
Fairfield (MAAC, 19-16, 9-9)
San Diego (WCC, 16-18, 7-9)
Texas-Pan American (Great West, 16-16, 5-3)
VMI (Big South, 14-17, 8-8)

Missouri should run through this group fairly easy, and Stony Brook should finish second.



Group 54

Cincinnati (Big East, 22-12, 9-9)
Kentucky (SEC, 21-12, 12-6)
Utah (Pac 12, 15-18, 5-13)
Gardner-Webb (Big South, 21-13, 11-5)
Monmouth (Northeast, 10-21, 5-13)
Utah Valley (Great West, 14-18, 3-5)

Although Kentucky didn't have a great year, they should advance out of this group. Do they have enough to beat Cincinnati and win the group? I don't think so. Cincy wins the group, Kentucky second. Look for Gardner-Webb to make a push for an at-large berth.

[sterlingice]

This is going to be a grind to play out, isn't it?

Throwing out some ideas:
* A good one to model some items after would be StLee's here: NCAA 128: Battle to ONE (2011 Football Replay) - Front Office Football Central
* Make your own storylines! One of the things I've seen with a lot of these bulk sets of games is that the writeups are just dry. There's no connection from one group to the next and no connection to the players. You get a box score with player names and stats so help us connect to them.
* For the grind group play, maybe just highlight a game or two from each "week's" worth of games where there's a stellar performance, nail biting ending, or good matchup. Don't be a slave to the format, tho.
* Even just highlighting one game for each of the bazillion groups will give you enough writing to get you from now until next March. Maybe just do a capsule for each group during group play and highlight one to three games from each group play.
* The problem is balancing what your audience wants to see (their team) with compelling games is hard to do, especially with this many teams.


SI

[collegesportsfanms]

You're right SI, it is going to be a grind. I have to say, group play is probably going to be very basic reporting with reporting on scores and maybe a key game or 2, especially down the stretch. Getting into bracket play is where the real reporting will come out. I have tried some other dynasty reports like this, if you have time feel free to check one of those out and see what you think. I don't have specific titles right now but they shouldn't be too hard to find. 4 more groups to announce then hopefully starting tomorrow I can start pounding out the group play for the first group

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 55

Valparaiso (Horizon, 26-8, 13-3)
Maryland (ACC, 25-13, 8-10)
South Florida (Big East, 12-19, 3-15)
San Francisco (WCC, 15-16, 7-9)
Liberty (Big South, 15-21, 6-10)
St. Peters (MAAC, 9-21, 3-15)

This really is a pretty weak group in my opinion. Although San Francisco and S. Florida could tease advancement, I look for Valpo to win the group and Maryland to be runner up.



Group 56

Colorado (Pac 12, 21-12, 10-8)
BYU (WCC, 24-12, 10-6)
Savannah State (MEAC, 19-15, 11-5)
West Virginia (Big 12, 13-19, 6-12)
Montana State (Big Sky, 13-17, 10-10)
Pennsylvania (Ivy, 9-22, 6-8)

I'm gonna tell you right now, this is another bold prediction on my part. West Virginia WILL advance out of this group and make it to bracket play. I am already penciling them in as an at-large team because I believe they are a lot better than their record shows. As for the rest of the group, I think BYU will win the group and Colorado gets runner up. Savannah State will just miss out.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 57

Stephen F. Austin (Southland, 27-5, 16-2)
Oklahoma (Big 12, 20-12, 11-7)
George Washington (Atlantic 10, 13-17, 7-9)
Wake Forest (ACC, 13-18, 6-12)
Nebraska-Omaha (Summit, 11-20, 6-10)
East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun, 10-22, 8-10)

I like Oklahoma to win this group. They play in the tough big 12 conference. Stephen F. Austin should have enough to finish runner up.



Group 58

Montana (Big Sky, 25-7, 19-1)
Davidson (Southern, 26-8, 17-1)
Northwestern (Big 10, 13-19, 4-14)
Hartford (America East, 17-14, 10-6)
Miami (OH) (MAC, 9-22, 3-13)

First and foremost, this group throws a kink into the whole system. Every team in this group is going to play 2 less games and it will have an effect on ranking the teams for the 128 team single elimination part of the tournament. I have yet to decide the best way to accommodate for the one less team in this group.

As far as the group goes, Montana and Davidson should advance easily, and I do mean easily. Davidson has the big game experience so I think they'll win the group and knock Montana into the runner up spot.

[collegesportsfanms]

Whew! All the groups are done and finished, thank goodness. Tomorrow I will start simming the games for group 1. IF anybody sees any major problems (a team in 2 different groups, 2 teams from the same conference in a group) let me know. Hope you all enjoy.

[collegesportsfanms]

Guys, I am ready to get group play going. I toyed with the idea of doing a little bit from each group at a time, but that's just not going to work. I won't be able to stay organized. So I'm going to do like I did the last 1 I did.. 1 group at a time, each post will consist of 2 or 3 weeks, so it'll take about 4 posts or so for each group. There's no way I could even do a whole group in 1 post. So.. I hope you all are following along, and if there are specific teams you readers will be watching, let me know. I will try to keep you guys involved as much as possible.

[sterlingice]

Of course, I'm watching out for Kansas. And, of course, as it's the tournament, let's keep on top of the upsets and underdogs

SI

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 1

#1 Louisville (Big East, 35-5, 14-4)
North Carolina Central (22-9, 15-1)
Illinois State (MVC, 18-15, 8-10)
Coastal Carolina (Big South, 14-15, 9-7)
TCU (Big 12, 11-21, 2-16)
Grambling State (SWAC, 0-28, 0-18)

----------------------------------------

Week 1

Louisville- 70, Grambling St.- 36
N.C. Central- 54, TCU- 39
Coastal Carolina- 74, Illinois St.- 64

As expected, Louisville had no trouble with Grambling St. The margin of victory could have been bigger but Louisville really slowed the game up in the last few minutes. Coastal Carolina got a big 32 point performance from Anthony Raffa in their win.

Week 2

Illinois St.- 82, N.C. Central- 65
Coastal Carolina- 81, Grambling St.- 34
Louisville- 70, TCU- 54

Well Louisville is nothing if not consistent so far. 70 points scored in both games, but you just kinda get the feeling they are not playing their best basketball quite yet.

Week 3

Louisville- 71, Coastal Carolina- 58
Illinois St.- 95, TCU- 62
N.C. Central- 59, Grambling St.- 46

Tyler Brown was huge for Illinois St. this game, scoring 30 in a blowout victory. Grambling St. actually led N.C. Central by 8 early in the second half.. then they realized they were the team that is supposed to get blown out of every game in this tournament.


------------------------

Here are the standings after the first 3 weeks, with point differential in parenthesis.

Louisville 3-0 (+63)
Coastal Carolina 2-1 (+44)
Illinois St. 2-1 (+40)
N.C. Central 2-1 (+11)
TCU 0-3 (-64)
Grambling St. 0-3 (-94)

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 1

Week 4

Grambling St.- 61, TCU- 57
N.C. Central- 78, Coastal Carolina- 53
Louisville- 72, Illinois St.- 63

Grambling St. has just won the national championship! At least, you would have thought so the way they were celebrating after that win against TCU. There was a lot of crying after this game, and for different reasons. In other notes, Louisville just keeps getting by, but right now they definitely aren't scaring anybody with their play. How about N.C. Central though, they look for real.

Week 5

N.C. Central- 75, Louisville- 66
Illinois St.- 72, Grambling St.- 55
Coastal Carolina- 72, TCU- 55

The way they were playing, I knew it would happen. The showdown results in the first loss of the tournament for Louisville, as N.C. Central had 2 guys with over 20 points. How will Louisville rally from this loss? Only time will tell.

Week 6

Louisville- 67, Grambling St.- 32
N.C. Central- 60, TCU- 58
Coastal Carolina- 66, Illinois St.- 57

The second time through the round robin play saw much of the same. How's this for defense.... Louisville gave up just 9 second half points. In fact, from the last 7 minutes of the first half through the whole second half, Grambling St. only scored 12 points. 12 points in 27 minutes. That's impressive defense combined with bad offense. N.C. Central survived by the skin of their teeth, thanks to a buzzer beater from the free throw line by Ray Willis.

----------------------------

Standings after 6 weeks, with point differential in parenthesis

N.C. Central 5-1 (+47)
Louisville 5-1 (+98)
Coastal Carolina 4-2 (+45)
Illinois St. 3-3 (+39)
Grambling St. 1-5 (-142)
TCU 0-6 (-87)

Let me explain tiebreakers among the group while I have a chance. While point differential is a tiebreaker, head to head is the #1 tiebreaker. Even though Louisville has a much better point differential at the moment, the key is that they lost the first head to head matchup with N.C. Central, which for the moment actually puts them second place in the group. The problem with the double round robin format is that head to head doesn't work if 2 teams are tied but each won 1 game against each other. Then it gets tricky, but I'll get to that if and when it becomes a factor.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 1

Week 7

N.C. Central- 68, Illinois St.- 65
Coastal Carolina- 55, Grambling St.- 41
Louisville- 70, TCU- 54

N.C. Central does it again! For the second straight game they need a buzzer beater to win. This time it comes on a three pointer from Jeremy Ingram, who finished the game with 23 points. And while Louisville did pull away late, TCU actually scored the first 9 points of the game.

Week 8

Coastal Carolina- 70, Louisville- 67
Illinois St.- 65, TCU- 60
N.C. Central- 78, Grambling St.- 49

No buzzer beater needed this time for N.C. Central, as they take care of business. And for the first time, the team that actually won the national title in the 2012-2013 season is starting to think about the possibility that they may be just an at-large team in this particular tournament. So far Coastal Carolina is the surprise team.

Week 9

TCU- 56, Grambling St.- 38
Coastal Carolina- 70, N.C. Central- 63
Illinois St.- 66, Louisville- 59

Sweet revenge for TCU who avenges their upset loss to Grambling St. How about Louisville, who has now lost 2 in a row. They shot just 28.3% in their loss to Illinois St. And Coastal Carolina makes things very interesting with their huge win over N.C. Central.

---------------------------

Standings after 9 weeks, point differential in parenthesis

N.C. Central 7-2 (+70)
Coastal Carolina 7-2 (+71)
Louisville 6-3 (+104)
Illinois St. 5-4 (+48)
TCU 1-9 (-90)
Grambling St. (-203)

Week 10 Schedule

Louisville @ N.C. Central
Grambling St. @ Illinois St.
Coastal Carolina @ TCU

The one thing we know about this group is that while TCU and Grambling St. are both eliminated, they can play spoiler. Also, Illinois St. must beat Grambling to even have a shot at an at-large berth. An Illinois St. loss or a Louisville win eliminates the Redbirds from competition. There are a lot of scenarios that can play out, as all 3 games in week 10 will be very critical to determining who advances.

[hoopsguy]

Well this is a surprising start to the tournament ...

[sterlingice]

Yeah, this is a fun start

SI

[sterlingice]

Also, I think the 3-3-3-1 format works well for this if you can keep up the pace. It helps set up the final game perfectly.

But, man, with all group play- that's a lot of entries (not that I'm complaining)

SI

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 1

Week 10

Louisville- 70, N.C. Central- 63
Illinois St.- 69, Grambling St.- 51
Coastal Carolina- 63, TCU- 50

So Illinois St.'s slight at-large hopes were dashed, and Louisville came through when they needed it. TCU saved me a lot of headaches by going ahead and losing to Coastal Carolina. Had TCU won, it would have created a 3 way tie with Louisville, N.C. Central, and Coastal Carolina all at 7-3. But with Carolina winning they clinch the group.

--------------

Final Group 1 Standings

#1 Coastal Carolina 8-2 (+84)
#2 Louisville 7-3 (+111)
#3 N.C. Central 7-3 (+63)
#4 Illinois St. 6-4 (+66)
#5 TCU 1-9 (-103)
#6 Grambling St. 1-9 (-229)

A very surprising Coastal Carolina wins the group, and Louisville, who was sweating bullets after 2 straight losses, ends up advancing to the round of 128. They won the second tiebreaker with N.C. Central. Since both teams beat each other once, point differential became the deciding tiebreaker. N.C. Central, with 7 wins, has set themselves up fairy nicely for an at-large berth, but must wait out 57 other groups.

[collegesportsfanms]

thanks for the feedback SI and hoopsguy. Glad you are enjoying. I was considering going 5-4-1, but I like the 3-3-3-1 better. 4 posts per group will make a lot of posts, but let's be honest.. I've seen some really really big dynasty reports on here.

On a side note, are you guys liking the double round robin, or would you prefer future tournaments I do to be single round robin? Obviously I can't change it now, single round robin would be a little easier for tiebreakers I think, but I like having the home and home series with every team. Thoughts and opinions?

[ntndeacon]

I am liking the double round robin. The first group was a hoot to watch.

[sterlingice]

I know it's a lot of work but I like the double round robin as it gives us a better caliber of team advancing to the tournament. There should be less upsets in group play as opposed to single elimination.

SI

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 2

#2 Duke (ACC, 30-6, 14-4)
St. Johns (Big East, 17-16, 8-10)
Vermont (America East, 21-12, 11-5)
Missouri State (MVC, 11-22, 7-11)
Cal St. Northridge (Big West, 14-17, 5-13)
Maryland Eastern Shore (MEAC, 2-26, 2-14)

--------------------------------------

Week 1

Duke- 79, MD Eastern Shore- 63
Cal St. Northridge- 72, St. Johns- 58
Vermont- 67, Missouri St.- 51

It's really not a surprise that Northridge beat St. Johns, both teams are really pretty evenly matched. Duke continues the string of top seeds in their group not playing very well, as they needed a 19-2 run to put away MD Eastern Shore.


Week 2

Vermont- 82, St. Johns- 63
Missouri St.- 66, MD Eastern Shore- 46
Duke- 82, Cal St. Northridge- 64

Very uneventful games this week, not much to talk about. How impressive does Vermont look right now?


Week 3

Duke- 69, Missouri St.- 59
Cal St. Northridge- 78, Vermont- 65
St. Johns- 56, MD Eastern Shore- 49

Boy that St. Johns-MD Eastern Shore was a snoozer. MD Eastern Shore shot just 28%, and St. Johns didn't do much better at 33.1%. Whoever actually sat through that whole game deserves a medal. On the other hand, Cal St. Northridge tickled the twine, shooting 56.9% against Vermont.

--------------------

Here are the standings after the first 3 weeks:

Duke 3-0 (+44)
Cal St. Northridge 2-1 (+9)
Vermont 2-1 (+22)
Missouri St. 1-2 (-6)
St. Johns 1-2 (-26)
MD-Eastern Shore 0-3 (-43)

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 2

Week 4

Cal St. Northridge- 77, MD Eastern Shore- 66
Missouri St.- 61, St. Johns- 55
Duke- 88, Vermont- 84 (2 OT)

The Duke-Vermont game was absolutely phenomenal. Vermont had a chance to win in regulation but couldn't get off a good shot. Duke suffered the same fate in the first overtime, but finally got a small cushion in OT #2 which proved to be enough. Missouri St. beat St. Johns from the free throw line, making 19 free throws to just 3 for the Johnnies.


Week 5

Duke- 75, St. Johns- 62
Vermont- 59, MD Eastern Shore- 44
Cal St. Northridge- 75, Missouri St.- 47

By far the most lopsided score of this group, Northridge absolutely shut down Missouri St., holding them to just 28.9% shooting. Duke needed 23 points from Seth Curry to stay undefeated through the first round of group play, and now they head into the rematches with everybody.


Week 6

Duke- 69, MD Eastern Shore- 67
Cal St. Northridge- 67, St. Johns- 38
Vermont- 63, Missouri St.- 51

Duke in another classic, as they actually trailed by 1 at halftime. The world was on the edge of their seats in what would have been the upset of the tournament thus far. And for the second straight game, Northridge holds a team to less than 30% shooting. The Johnnies shot just 29.1%

Here are the standings after week 6:

Duke 6-0 (+63)
Cal St. Northridge 5-1 (+77)
Vermont 4-2 (+45)
Missouri St. 2-4 (-40)
St. Johns 1-5 (-74)
MD Eastern Shore 0-6 (-71)