The Trump Presidency – 2016

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

It hasn't been passed and isn't in effect. He must have threatened half a dozen times to walk and kill NAFTA, but never did. Everybody knows he's all bluster. China, short of getting the US to cave on a lot of things, has no reason not to wait until after the election.

It's true it has not passed but he's negotiated it and what's put in front of Congress is advantageous to the US. I don't disagree he is a lot of bluster but he has won some stuff (mostly through threats, intimidation).

I do think China will wait till the election and see what comes of it. The only reason why China would negotiate is if their down-trending economy gets out of hand and they decide they can't wait.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

So Trump's latest flight of fancy-he wants the US to buy Greenland-which of course is under the control of Denmark and is self-ruled:

Trump Eyes a New Real-Estate Purchase: Greenland - WSJ

Can't read wsj but found this article. Pretty funny. Denmark has GDP of $325B so maybe he can make an offer they can't refuse.

If he wants to have a 51st state, sounds like PR is the best candidate.

WSJ: Trump Wants To Buy Greenland | Talking Points Memo

The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that Trump is eyeing Greenland as a potential new addition to the U.S.

Two unnamed sources told the Journal that the President has gone as far as asking his White House counsel about buying the island (an autonomous nation belonging to Denmark), though it’s unknown how seriously he plans on pursuing the idea.

As one of the paper’s sources pointed out, since Trump hasn’t floated the idea at one of his campaign rallies yet, “he probably isn’t seriously considering it,” in the Journal’s words.

Trump reportedly wants both Greenland’s natural resources and the legacy of adding a new state to the union.

[JPhillips]

I drove to Ohio and back this week and heard about fifteen minutes of Rush Limbaugh somewhere in Pennsyltucky. He sounded like a full-on Qanon believer. I guess Alex Jones moved the market and Rush followed the money.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I drove to Ohio and back this week and heard about fifteen minutes of Rush Limbaugh somewhere in Pennsyltucky. He sounded like a full-on Qanon believer. I guess Alex Jones moved the market and Rush followed the money.

It's an interesting shift. But like you said, when Alex Jones and such got credibility in the conservative scene, a lot of people had to shift farther into crazy town to keep up. You saw Hannitty turn to Seth Rich conspiracies. Tucker and Ingraham went from boring conservatives to full-on white supremacists.

[albionmoonlight]

So I think that Trump's strategy of blaming the Fed for any economic downturn is politically smart.

First, I of course agree with the long-standing bipartisan tradition of not pulling the Fed into the political fray. It is good for the long-term health and stability of the economy for the Fed to be able to operate as independently as possible. But we are not talking about the long term health and stability of the economy; we are talking about short term political gain.

Second, this manages to dovetail nicely with Trump's broader culture-war theme. The "Fed" are a bunch of egghead economists who are all over-educated and wear suits to work and think that they know better than you. "Real Americans" are out there trying to work a job, and these "coastal elites" are making it harder for them to do it.

Third, this is a complex issue that can be easily misrepresented in a simple way. 99%+ of the people don't know what the Federal Funds Rate or the Discount Rate are or what they do. But they can digest the idea that Trump says that lower is better and higher is worse and these liberal economists (because why not?) are not making it lower.

Fourth, the Fed can't defend itself. Even if Trump does not care about Fed independence, the Fed does. So unlike going after other politicians who will strike back, this is like hitting an opponent with both hands tied behind its back. Sure, you will get some media folks and retired Fed members going on dusty Sunday morning talk shows that nobody watches and defending the Fed, but that's not going to move the needle much, I think.

Overall, I think that Presidents get too much credit when the economy is good and gas prices are low and too much blame when the economy is bad and gas prices are high. And if the economy does go into recession, there might be nothing he can do to deflect the blame. But I think that he's managed to find a pretty good foil in the Fed.

Edit--I just thought of another reason. Attacking the Fed also gets you the support of the Ron Paul types who dislike central banking in general (regardless of what it is doing at any one point).

[JPhillips]

The latest Fox News poll has Trump under 40% against any of the top Dems. If the economy falters it won't matter what he says or who he blames, he'll be finished.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The latest Fox News poll has Trump under 40% against any of the top Dems. If the economy falters it won't matter what he says or who he blames, he'll be finished.

I wonder if FOX news cooks the polls to make it look like Trump is far behind to rally support, donations, etc....

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I wonder if FOX news cooks the polls to make it look like Trump is far behind to rally support, donations, etc....

Nah. Their polling unit is solid. They'll occasionally ask goofy questions, but their methods are good and honest. They aren't Rasmussen.

[albionmoonlight]

Can you imagine being so pathologically insecure that you need your press office to get out ahead of any story implying that you might have apologized for a mistake.

Correction: Trump did not apologize, a White House official tells me. He phoned the supporter, left him a message thanking him for his support, but did not use the words "sorry" or "apologize." https://t.co/0G32RSHI1G

— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) August 16, 2019

[molson]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

So Trump's latest flight of fancy-he wants the US to buy Greenland-which of course is under the control of Denmark and is self-ruled:

Trump Eyes a New Real-Estate Purchase: Greenland - WSJ

This is maybe the closest we'll get to Trump acknowledging climate change. I mean, Greenland will be a gold mine when the ice is gone. This would be a solid move in some kind of political text sim.

[Edward64]

What he will do with the info is TBD but its a good sign Trump reached out. Probably will include Trump berating Fed to reduce rates by more than 25 basis points next time around.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/16/trum...t-plunged.html

President Donald Trump held a conference call with the CEOs of the three biggest U.S. banks as the stock market tanked Wednesday.

Trump held the call with J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan and Citigroup’s Michael Corbat, according to people with knowledge of the situation. The Dow plunged 800 points, or 3%, in its worst day of the year on Wednesday amid a recession warning from the bond market.

The president asked the three men to give him a read on the health of the U.S. consumer, according to one of the people. The executives responded that the consumer is doing well, but that they could be doing even better if issues including the China-U.S. trade war were resolved, this person said.

The CEOs also told Trump that the trade dispute is damaging the outlook for capital spending by corporations, according to another person with knowledge of the discussions. The president was receptive to the notion that uncertainty over trade is hurting corporate confidence, this person said.
:
:
They also talked about the Federal Reserve and the global economic slowdown that has central banks around the world moving to ease monetary conditions, this person said. One opinion batted around during the call: A 25 basis point cut by the Fed won’t likely change capital flows in the markets.

The call, which lasted about 20 minutes, happened after the CEOs concluded a previously-scheduled meeting with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in Washington. Trump wanted to speak to the three executives, the men were informed, and he called in from his property in New Jersey. Bloomberg first reported on the conference call.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by molson

This is maybe the closest we'll get to Trump acknowledging climate change. I mean, Greenland will be a gold mine when the ice is gone. This would be a solid move in some kind of political text sim.

Now Denmark has offered to buy the United States. I say if they have $10, sell, baby!

[Arles]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

So I think that Trump's strategy of blaming the Fed for any economic downturn is politically smart.

First, I of course agree with the long-standing bipartisan tradition of not pulling the Fed into the political fray. It is good for the long-term health and stability of the economy for the Fed to be able to operate as independently as possible. But we are not talking about the long term health and stability of the economy; we are talking about short term political gain.

Second, this manages to dovetail nicely with Trump's broader culture-war theme. The "Fed" are a bunch of egghead economists who are all over-educated and wear suits to work and think that they know better than you. "Real Americans" are out there trying to work a job, and these "coastal elites" are making it harder for them to do it.

Third, this is a complex issue that can be easily misrepresented in a simple way. 99%+ of the people don't know what the Federal Funds Rate or the Discount Rate are or what they do. But they can digest the idea that Trump says that lower is better and higher is worse and these liberal economists (because why not?) are not making it lower.

Fourth, the Fed can't defend itself. Even if Trump does not care about Fed independence, the Fed does. So unlike going after other politicians who will strike back, this is like hitting an opponent with both hands tied behind its back. Sure, you will get some media folks and retired Fed members going on dusty Sunday morning talk shows that nobody watches and defending the Fed, but that's not going to move the needle much, I think.

Overall, I think that Presidents get too much credit when the economy is good and gas prices are low and too much blame when the economy is bad and gas prices are high. And if the economy does go into recession, there might be nothing he can do to deflect the blame. But I think that he's managed to find a pretty good foil in the Fed.

Edit--I just thought of another reason. Attacking the Fed also gets you the support of the Ron Paul types who dislike central banking in general (regardless of what it is doing at any one point).

Agree 100%. It's shady business by Trump, but the strategy makes sense from his end. It's goes with his "scorched earth as long as I benefit" outlook on life.

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The latest Fox News poll has Trump under 40% against any of the top Dems. If the economy falters it won't matter what he says or who he blames, he'll be finished.

I hope this is right, but my fear is that is just because people know they don't like Trump - but haven't had a full out Trump press on the democrats yet. Remember, Clinton had a 48-36 lead over Trump in July of 2015. Heck, even Sanders was up 45-37 a year before the election. Trump is like a cockroach under the fridge that keeps coming back - even when you think he should be dead.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Arles

I hope this is right, but my fear is that is just because people know they don't like Trump - but haven't had a full out Trump press on the democrats yet. Remember, Clinton had a 48-36 lead over Trump in July of 2015. Heck, even Sanders was up 45-37 a year before the election. Trump is like a cockroach under the fridge that keeps coming back - even when you think he should be dead.

I think you have to consider the incumbent, with a good economy the favorite, but Trump is clearly unpopular and seems to be surviving largely due to a good economy. If the economy falters, I don't know what he will have to win with.

Unlike in 2016, an incumbent election is historically less about the opposition candidate and more of a referendum on the incumbent. This isn't a choice between A and B, particularly a B who was trying for her party's third term.
The election is basically, do you want four more years of Trump?

That being said, a ton of people will vote for him. Enthusiasm right now is at or above levels in November of 2012 and 2016. His absolute floor is probably something like 50-60 million votes, and that would likely be in a crushing defeat.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Now Denmark has offered to buy the United States. I say if they have $10, sell, baby!

Everything has a price.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I think you have to consider the incumbent, with a good economy the favorite, but Trump is clearly unpopular and seems to be surviving largely due to a good economy. If the economy falters, I don't know what he will have to win with.

I think it will come down to a combination of how motivated the left is to vote for their candidate, as well as what negatives does that candidate have that can exploited by Trump's fear mongering. My gut feeling right now is that Trump will lose, but I wouldn't bet too much on that at this point.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Edward64

What he will do with the info is TBD but its a good sign Trump reached out. Probably will include Trump berating Fed to reduce rates by more than 25 basis points next time around.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/16/trum...t-plunged.html

My brother in law is 2 steps from the CEO of one of these companies. I just wrote him and asked him about it. Said would have been amazing to be a fly on the wall.

[PilotMan]

hxxps://theconcourse.deadspin.com/look-at-this-weird-thing-donald-trump-just-belched-up-1837315160


This is a great piece about the mindset of the idiot in chief.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Edward64

If he wants to have a 51st state, sounds like PR is the best candidate.

Too many brown people.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Everything has a price.

So they're willing to talk.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I think you have to consider the incumbent, with a good economy the favorite, but Trump is clearly unpopular and seems to be surviving largely due to a good economy. If the economy falters, I don't know what he will have to win with.

Unlike in 2016, an incumbent election is historically less about the opposition candidate and more of a referendum on the incumbent. This isn't a choice between A and B, particularly a B who was trying for her party's third term.
The election is basically, do you want four more years of Trump?

That being said, a ton of people will vote for him. Enthusiasm right now is at or above levels in November of 2012 and 2016. His absolute floor is probably something like 50-60 million votes, and that would likely be in a crushing defeat.

I will throw in on more troubling polling. Pod Saves America just did some extensive polling in Wisconsin. Their thought was that, of the rust belt states, Wisconsin was going to be the hardest to flip. If Wisconsin goes Democrat, then more than likely so does Michigan and Pennsylvania, and Trump has no chance of winning.



Their polls show Trump's approval at 48%. That is well above the national average, and is exactly the approval rating of Obama when he won the state in 2012. It looks like there needs to be a good size shift still to get Rust-Belt wall back on the democratic reservation. You would think what Trump was done to the dairy farmers, and the broken promises to the car manufacturers would be enough. Somehow, for Wisconsin it still all about immigration. They have totally bought the bogey-man without seeing the real one pulling the strings.

[JPhillips]

I'll just point out that that number in Wisconsin doesn't match some other polling, but the basic idea that the election isn't a sure thing I certainly agree with.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I will throw in on more troubling polling. Pod Saves America just did some extensive polling in Wisconsin. Their thought was that, of the rust belt states, Wisconsin was going to be the hardest to flip. If Wisconsin goes Democrat, then more than likely so does Michigan and Pennsylvania, and Trump has no chance of winning.



Their polls show Trump's approval at 48%. That is well above the national average, and is exactly the approval rating of Obama when he won the state in 2012. It looks like there needs to be a good size shift still to get Rust-Belt wall back on the democratic reservation. You would think what Trump was done to the dairy farmers, and the broken promises to the car manufacturers would be enough. Somehow, for Wisconsin it still all about immigration. They have totally bought the bogey-man without seeing the real one pulling the strings.

A few things....

Trump hasn't hurt dairy farmers specifically all that much. Things were going to hell at the end of Obama's term. Some people want to come out and blame Trump for the end of my dairy farm but it's not the case at all. And I'm pretty rabidly anti-Trump. Dairy has made some inroads to China but the trade war is all about the soybeans in terms of agriculture.

I've said it a few times here, perhaps in different threads, but Wisconsin will flip blue if Milwaukee turns out to vote. Trump only got a few thousand more votes than Romney did in Wisconsin. Get somebody that excites Milwaukee (and Detroit for Michigan), and Wisconsin flips blue. I'm not buying at all that Wisconsin will be tough to flip, especially after voting out Scott Walker and re-electing Tammy Baldwin in a landslide during a mid-term election.

[lungs]

Dola

Also watch Iowa. The trade war with China perhaps didn't move the needle much but I've seen some pretty significant erosion of support (anecdotally) based on his ethanol policy of granting waivers to refineries from need to use ethanol. Not that these people will flip to the Democrat (God, Guns, Gays still reverberates) but perhaps enough will cast a protest vote or skip it.

[SackAttack]

The other thing about Wisconsin is that the extent to which it's "flippable" is the extent to which the latent Democratic base in Dane County (and to a some what lesser extent, Milwaukee County) show up.

This is a state that elected the first openly lesbian member to the United States Senate, after all. It's not a bastion of conservatism or even Trumpism.

What it is is a state where the GOP has had ten years to rig the rules in their favor because Democrats didn't bother to show up in 2010 and paid the political price for it.

I'm not saying it's a guaranteed flip. I AM saying Democrats were motivated enough to turn out despite the procedural roadblocks intended to smooth the way for Republican voters (and put roadblocks in the way of certain Democratic constituencies) to help Tony Evers defeat Scott Walker.

It can be done. It's less about whether rural farmers in northwest Wisconsin are still hugging Trump and more about whether the Democratic base in southern Wisconsin show up in the numbers they did in 2018.

[Galaril]

I went thru an executive briefing at the company I am at which is a large global tech company. We are seeing some serious business slowdown. Our first quarter was very bad and the second quarter is not any better. The factors causing this are:

-China tariffs affecting our customers in China
-Strong dollar being exchanged back to the Yen as we are a Japanese corp
-Big trade war going on between Japan and Korea
-Europe-Brexit impact uncertainty and Germany economy cooling off.

The outcome is lower payout on bonus to all employees, upcoming layoffs, hiring freeze, travel freeze except for customer focused travel. We also are not backfilling any future jobs if people leave like myself as I just resigned to pursue a new job. Overall, I can attest that the global economy is a mess right now and things are looking ominous.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by lungs

Dola

Also watch Iowa. The trade war with China perhaps didn't move the needle much but I've seen some pretty significant erosion of support (anecdotally) based on his ethanol policy of granting waivers to refineries from need to use ethanol. Not that these people will flip to the Democrat (God, Guns, Gays still reverberates) but perhaps enough will cast a protest vote or skip it.

I still think he could shit in their mouth and they'd beg for more.

[JPhillips]

Two Trump voters, one cup?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Galaril

-Big trade war going on between Japan and Korea

Didn't know about Japan & Korea. Article doesn't say $ impact so not sure how big-big it is.

The South Korea and Japan trade war, explained - Vox

Last month, Japan announced it would tighten control over three chemicals — fluorinated polyamides, photoresists, and hydrogen fluoride — that are crucial to producing semiconductors in Korea. Under new regulations, Japanese companies would need a license for each chemical to import them to South Korea, and the process could take up to 90 days.

Semiconductors, a key material installed in most electronic devices, have long been Korea’s top export item, and a delay in their productions could pose a significant threat to its economy.

Japan claimed it was setting such restrictions because it believed South Korea was leaking sensitive information to North Korea, although they did not provide details. After South Korea vehemently denied the accusations, Japan slapped down another trade restriction: removing South Korea from its “white list,” an index of trusted trade partners. This would lead to even more delays in exports of items like auto parts and household electronics to South Korea.
:
:
The most obvious concern is the threat a trade war poses to the global tech supply chain by delaying exports to Korea, says senior director of the Korea Economic Institute Troy Stangarone.

That’s especially because South Korean companies Samsung and SK Hynix provide 60 percent of the world’s DRAM memory chips, which are used in many electronics we use every day. A shortage could affect everything from Apple iPhones to Dell laptops and potentially slow down an already cooling global economy.

[RainMaker]

(Reuters) - United States Steel Corp. will temporarily lay off hundreds of workers at its Great Lakes facility in Michigan in coming weeks, according to a filing the steelmaker made with the State of Michigan.

(via ⁦@TimAeppel⁩) $X https://t.co/Eusw9a6zJJ

— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) August 20, 2019

[QuikSand]

Wow. So. Much. Winning.

[Lathum]

The sad thing is they will still vote for him

[Atocep]

I guess this is what happens when you give someone that's filed for bankruptcy protection 6 times the keys to the economy.

I'm sure this is just more of the media trying to start a recession though.

[albionmoonlight]

For years, we had the whole "Trump keeps shooting himself in the foot even though things are going really well. I wonder how he will handle an actual problem" thing.

I think that we are about to see it, and a lot of people are going to suffer because of it, and that's a shame. I want Trump to lose re-election, but I don't want it on the backs of innocent workers.

Economic cycles are complicated and mostly out of a President's control (otherwise we'd never have downturns). But I do think that good stewardship can lessen the effects of downturns. We are, I am afraid, not about to see good stewardship.

[JPhillips]

Part of the problem is that we're already running a trillion-dollar deficit and if there's a recession and Trump loses, the GOP will turn into the biggest deficit hawks imaginable.

[QuikSand]

it truly is a thankless gig...

Daniel Dale on Twitter: "I might retire from fact-checking Trump's claim that the trade deficit with China is $500 billion. Just trust that he's still saying it and that it continues to not be true."

[JPhillips]

Trump's beginning for his middle school essay on Kashmir:

“Kashmir is a very complicated place. You have the Hindus, and you have the Muslims, and I wouldn’t say they get along so great. And that’s what you have right now.”

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Trump's beginning for his middle school essay on Kashmir:

He really speaks clearly, speaks his mind, and tells it like it is!

[Thomkal]

He really was serious about buying Greenland:


Denmark is a very special country with incredible people, but based on Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s comments, that she would have no interest in discussing the purchase of Greenland, I will be postponing our meeting scheduled in two weeks for another time....


The Prime Minister was able to save a great deal of expense and effort for both the United States and Denmark by being so direct. I thank her for that and look forward to rescheduling sometime in the future!

[NobodyHere]

Meh,

What's unusual about wanting to buy land?

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Meh,

What's unusual about wanting to buy land?

Well none of course with his own money-who knows how he'll propose spending America's money-a Greenland tax?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Meh,

What's unusual about wanting to buy land?

They've made it clear it's not for sale. The residents of Greenland do not want it. And islands being sold is outdated with the end of colonialism and slavery.

And as an American, putting one of the worst real estate businessman in the history of the world in charge of this kind of deal would be insanity.

Imagine Japan cancelling a meeting because we refuse to sell them Hawaii.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Meh,

What's unusual about wanting to buy land?

I like the idea of the US buying more land but seems like Haiti would be much more accommodating than Greenland/Denmark.

Don't know what Trump's play is here but my guess is he's playing with the press and distracting them from other more important news.

[JPhillips]

JFC

We aren't buying other countries and we shouldn't act like asking is normal.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Meh,

What's unusual about wanting to buy land?

Stop.

[Ben E Lou]

Both sides, put your partisan feelings aside for a moment and imagine you went into a coma 10 years ago and woke up today to this headline:


"President Donald Trump Indefinitely Postpones Scheduled Meeting With Denmark's Prime Minister Because She Refused To Discuss Selling Greenland To U.S."

[PilotMan]

It really is Idiocracy in our time.

[Edward64]

Fun distraction from talks of recession.

[JPhillips]

Speaking of recession, apparently Mulvaney told a group of big GOP donors that if there is a recession it will be moderate and short.

There's clearly a lot of worry all around.

[JPhillips]

dola

This is plausible. What if Trump can't see?

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/...ust-blind.html