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Old 03-28-2020, 01:58 PM   #2801
NobodyHere
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Originally Posted by JPhillips View Post
But there's no way he could have learned anything talking to the four living ex-Presidents.

That does raise a good question:

What would've W done!

I'm going to go with invade Iraq.
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Old 03-28-2020, 02:00 PM   #2802
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What would've W done!

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Old 03-28-2020, 02:00 PM   #2803
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That does raise a good question:

What would've W done!

I'm going to go with invade Iraq.

Definitely dodge the virus.

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Old 03-28-2020, 05:32 PM   #2804
AlexB
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This is a little excerpt from the book I am reading atm (cover and scroll right for the excerpt)... clearly coincidence?

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Old 03-28-2020, 09:25 PM   #2806
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Monday the US hit 100 deaths. Today we hit 2,000. Stay safe out there frens.
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Old 03-28-2020, 09:48 PM   #2807
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In a week or so we're going to have twice as many cases as Italy.
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Old 03-29-2020, 12:23 AM   #2808
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I'm not sure what this guy is thinking. I get not wanting to put the cities/country under stay-at-home but to call it "a little flu" seems way too lackadaisical.

https://apnews.com/b21a296383694c6726d03e027134daf1
Quote:
RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — Even as coronavirus cases mount in Latin America’s largest nation, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has staked out the most deliberately dismissive position of any major world leader, calling the pandemic a momentary, minor problem and saying strong measures to contain it are unnecessary.

Bolsonaro says his response to the disease matches that of President Donald Trump in the U.S., but the Brazilian leader has gone further, labeling the virus as “a little flu” and saying state governors’ aggressive measures to halt the disease were crimes.

On Thursday, Bolsonaro told reporters in the capital, Brasilia, that he feels Brazilians’ natural immunity will protect the nation.

“The Brazilian needs to be studied. He doesn’t catch anything. You see a guy jumping into sewage, diving in, right? Nothing happens to him. I think a lot of people were already infected in Brazil, weeks or months ago, and they already have the antibodies that help it not proliferate,” Bolsonaro said. “I’m hopeful that’s really a reality.”

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Old 03-29-2020, 09:42 AM   #2809
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wow I sure hope Brazil's people vote him out quickly for that and what he is doing to the Amazon.
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Old 03-29-2020, 09:43 AM   #2810
NobodyHere
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World Health Organization encourages playing video games during coronavirus pandemic

Well if WHO says it's okay, I better get going.
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Old 03-29-2020, 09:54 AM   #2811
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Old 03-29-2020, 09:58 AM   #2812
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A thousand or so deaths is not a significant amount in the grand scheme of things for a nation of 330 million people. Cancer and heart disease kill more than three thousand Americans a day between the two of them. But it does appear that we're about to get into territory where this thing could rival or exceed that amount, and that's where things really could hit the fan.
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Old 03-29-2020, 10:03 AM   #2813
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian Swartz View Post
A thousand or so deaths is not a significant amount in the grand scheme of things for a nation of 330 million people. Cancer and heart disease kill more than three thousand Americans a day between the two of them. But it does appear that we're about to get into territory where this thing could rival or exceed that amount, and that's where things really could hit the fan.

I think the point was more about the exponential effects.
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Old 03-29-2020, 10:03 AM   #2814
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A thousand or so deaths is not a significant amount in the grand scheme of things for a nation of 330 million people. Cancer and heart disease kill more than three thousand Americans a day between the two of them. But it does appear that we're about to get into territory where this thing could rival or exceed that amount, and that's where things really could hit the fan.

Fauci predicts 100K-200K US deaths; Spain, Italy demand help | PBS NewsHour Weekend
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Old 03-29-2020, 10:05 AM   #2815
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian Swartz View Post
A thousand or so deaths is not a significant amount in the grand scheme of things for a nation of 330 million people. Cancer and heart disease kill more than three thousand Americans a day between the two of them. But it does appear that we're about to get into territory where this thing could rival or exceed that amount, and that's where things really could hit the fan.


How about a planet of 8 billion? Once we start getting into the million people a day infected (if we actually get that far), the death numbers could be astounding.
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Old 03-29-2020, 10:10 AM   #2816
Brian Swartz
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Sure, I'm just trying to inject a little of balance as I think people are going a little off the deep end in some cases obsessing about relatively small numbers of deaths still at this point in most parts of the world. There's no question it's going to get worse, and right now I think that number from Fauci is pretty optimistic and I'd definitely take that a result.
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Old 03-29-2020, 10:11 AM   #2817
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How about a planet of 8 billion? Once we start getting into the million people a day infected (if we actually get that far), the death numbers could be astounding.

When you start getting there, even 1,000,000 deaths (I know you said infections), is only .0125% of the world population. Even a 100,000,000 deaths is only 1.25% of the world's population.
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Old 03-29-2020, 10:13 AM   #2818
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When you start getting there, even 1,000,000 deaths (I know you said infections), is only .0125% of the world population. Even a 100,000,000 deaths is only 1.25% of the world's population.


True, but a million deaths a day, or 100 million all together...there's never been anything in our lifetime, or that of our parents or grandparents that even comes close to that sort of carnage is there?
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Old 03-29-2020, 10:16 AM   #2819
Brian Swartz
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Not in terms of numbers of people. That would be enough to actually cause world population to shrink. Proportionally, something like WW2 was worse (approximately 3% of the world's population at the time was wiped out).

Last edited by Brian Swartz : 03-29-2020 at 10:17 AM.
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Old 03-29-2020, 10:19 AM   #2820
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Originally Posted by Brian Swartz View Post
Sure, I'm just trying to inject a little of balance as I think people are going a little off the deep end in some cases obsessing about relatively small numbers of deaths still at this point in most parts of the world. There's no question it's going to get worse, and right now I think that number from Fauci is pretty optimistic and I'd definitely take that a result.

This becomes the reason people go out and get others sick. We think of it as no big deal.

This is a highly contagious virus.

My issue is some people will get it and it won't be a big deal, and perhaps they'll be immune afterwards; or their body will be able to handle the effects better should they get sick again.

But for some, it'll be a one and dead. Worse, you could be admitted to the hospital only to be considered a non-survivable and not get treatment.

We are obsessing because it affects everyone in different ways and there is no ability to fight contamination unless you stay isolated.
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Old 03-29-2020, 10:19 AM   #2821
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That does raise a good question:

What would've W done!

I'm going to go with invade Iraq.

eff Dumbya
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Old 03-29-2020, 10:21 AM   #2822
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True, but a million deaths a day, or 100 million all together...there's never been anything in our lifetime, or that of our parents or grandparents that even comes close to that sort of carnage is there?

Wasn't it Stalin who said one death is a tragedy but a million is a statistic.
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Old 03-29-2020, 10:28 AM   #2823
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian Swartz View Post
Sure, I'm just trying to inject a little of balance as I think people are going a little off the deep end in some cases obsessing about relatively small numbers of deaths still at this point in most parts of the world. There's no question it's going to get worse, and right now I think that number from Fauci is pretty optimistic and I'd definitely take that a result.

I feel like this line of thinking is what got us here. We have heard so many variations of

"there are only X people infected"

"more people die from the flu"

"it isn't in my area"

statements like this make people not take it seriously until it is too late and here we are.
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Old 03-29-2020, 10:38 AM   #2824
Brian Swartz
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Those are two totally different things. I'm aware that it's a serious issue, I'm isolating as much as I can - only time I go anywhere is to get groceries every three days. I don't think having a sensible comparative perspective on the casualty numbers we've seen so far equals saying the virus isn't a big deal and people shouldn't take it seriously. I've been trying to get others to see that it is in fact that big of a deal, both in terms of those parts of my extended family who think the restrictions are an overreach and with those on this forum who have expressed that opinion.

In other words, I don't think taking proper precautions is any way in conflict with not going into panic territory. We need to do both.
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Old 03-29-2020, 10:55 AM   #2825
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Well that explains Trump's new conciliatory tone towards China.

Inside the start of the great virus airlift
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Old 03-29-2020, 11:36 AM   #2826
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Day 14 of Enhanced Community Quarantine here in the Island of Luzon in the Philippines. 1,418 confirmed cases, 71 deaths. April 14 is still quite some time away, and they are probably considering extending the quarantine to May.

Still surreal how they've managed to convince 14 million people in Metro Manila, and 50 million people in Luzon to generally stay at home. I think we're just looking at the numbers in China, Italy and the US, and are cooperating to hopefully stop this from spreading too fast. :/

Here's a nice website of weekly cases plotted to total cases, to show the trends of each country:
Covid Trends

I've only left the house two times in the last two weeks, both for grocery and medicine shopping.

Hope you guys are staying safe.
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Old 03-29-2020, 12:15 PM   #2827
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Remember that whatever number we end up at it is a) only the official count (even Italy has indications this is by far not the real total, France f.e. is not counting deaths in Retirement homes so far) and b) it will happen despite throwing the kitchen sink at the bastard.

Yes, 500 a day for the US is "not that bad" in the big scheme of things but, putting aside that this will be way more before long*, this will be the number taking into account all measures and highly increased equipment.

*Remember that Italy has only 60 mio inhabitants. 200 there is the same per Capita as 1k in the US.
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Old 03-29-2020, 12:18 PM   #2828
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eff Dumbya

But he did have mad dodging skillz.
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Old 03-29-2020, 12:20 PM   #2829
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Let this run through with business at usual like we do the seasonal flu and this could conceivably double the yearly mortality in a lot of places (it is currently still doubling the daily deaths in Lombardy and Madrid. Imagine what could happen in Mumbai or Nairobi. Remember that the only real medical treatment is ventilating people and 99% of the world has much less access to those than the countries hit first right now.
Not to mention even we struggle to get basic protection for Medical Personnel in hospitals and especially retirement homes. And we are buiying up the world supply at top dollar. You think anybody in Africa is able to get even 1% of what they could need ?

Lombardy is currently averaging more confirmed Covid19 deaths a day than they usually have dying from all causes. And there are undoubtedly connected deaths not recorded, some small towns have seen 300% increases for March even after accounting for the officially diagnosed Covid19 deaths.

If this is not largely kept out of Africa or India and they cant get supplies because the western world is still busy, i do not want to even think about numbers there. Yes, they have a younger populations but a lot higher percentage of cases for those will die without access to ventilators.

Even if medication is found, anybody think this will be available in large enough quantities there ?
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Old 03-29-2020, 12:50 PM   #2830
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When you start getting there, even 1,000,000 deaths (I know you said infections), is only .0125% of the world population. Even a 100,000,000 deaths is only 1.25% of the world's population.

What is your point.? That 100 million dead is not worth shutting down economies for a bit and sucking it up on the market?
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Old 03-29-2020, 12:51 PM   #2831
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Those are two totally different things. I'm aware that it's a serious issue, I'm isolating as much as I can - only time I go anywhere is to get groceries every three days. I don't think having a sensible comparative perspective on the casualty numbers we've seen so far equals saying the virus isn't a big deal and people shouldn't take it seriously. I've been trying to get others to see that it is in fact that big of a deal, both in terms of those parts of my extended family who think the restrictions are an overreach and with those on this forum who have expressed that opinion.

In other words, I don't think taking proper precautions is any way in conflict with not going into panic territory. We need to do both.

I hear ya. I'm following the rules but I will look for the good news every day, and that includes putting things in context. 100k-200k U.S. deaths would be a LOT better than what we thought was possible a few weeks (when 2.2 million was the high-end projection). That's just how my brain is going to process that information. I need to have hope so I'm going to look for it wherever I can.

We're all just wired differently in that regard (overlapping here with the mental health thread). My father is an epic pessimist. That was so frustrating growing up. Every time I expressed something positive about an accomplishment, or a hope for the future, he'd explain why I was wrong to be happy or hopeful. That was his coping mechanism for shit he went through I'm sure, but it always stung for me, and it eventually kept us distant to a degree that still exists today. I don't want to share anything positive about my life with him because he might shoot it down, and I don't want to share anything negative about my life with him because I don't want him to feel validated about his pessimism.

I still feel that sting in other contexts, even now. You have to be careful expressing optimism in times like this, because it upsets people who are just wired differently. But, like you said, looking for hope doesn't mean I'm having house parties or not taking precautions. It doesn't mean I think 100k-200k dead is no big deal. I just want to get through today and feel good enough to do something positive and productive. It's a weird feeling to know that I have to be cautious about expressing hope and optimism. But I have to understand the different perspectives of those around me and that they have different coping mechanisms. And understand how isolating and divisive challenges like this can be, and to find other ways to be human and find and share that hope.

Last edited by molson : 03-29-2020 at 01:42 PM.
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Old 03-29-2020, 01:40 PM   #2832
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If we end up in this 100-200k range of fatalities in the US I will be extremely grateful that we took enough action to avoid worst case scenarios b/c we know it could have certainly been 1 million+ in the US alone. At the same time I will still feel devastated knowing that we allowed far more to die that was necessary and the only reason was sheer incompetence and willful ignorance.

It's definitely a complicated thing.
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Old 03-29-2020, 01:53 PM   #2833
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And it will also lull people into a false sense of security (ala Y2K). "We did too much and hurt ourselves in others ways just for this?!?"


SI
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Old 03-29-2020, 02:09 PM   #2834
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Wasn't it Stalin who said one death is a tragedy but a million is a statistic.

Sounds right, pretty sure FB tells me the approximate conversion rate is 1 blue life = 1 million civilians.
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Old 03-29-2020, 02:15 PM   #2835
Brian Swartz
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I'm a little moderate on that end of things. It's inevitable that the actions taken to limit coronavirus deaths will also have directly and indirectly caused other premature deaths. I'll be hard-pressed to say we ultimately waited way too long, didn't do enough, etc. unless we have an extended period of exceeding medical capacity and US deaths in the millions. This may well still happen, but I think the casualties on the economic side, while ultimately unmeasurable, are likely to reach six figures as well.
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Old 03-29-2020, 02:46 PM   #2836
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I'm a little moderate on that end of things. It's inevitable that the actions taken to limit coronavirus deaths will also have directly and indirectly caused other premature deaths. I'll be hard-pressed to say we ultimately waited way too long, didn't do enough, etc. unless we have an extended period of exceeding medical capacity and US deaths in the millions. This may well still happen, but I think the casualties on the economic side, while ultimately unmeasurable, are likely to reach six figures as well.

Acting too late and having hospitals overstretched would also carry a knock-on effect though. Those patients are not going to be treated in a vacuum. And the more there are at the same time and the longer that is the case, the less space and care available across the board. Doctors and Nurses getting sick and contagious, too.

So in reality it is more likely you chose between those 2 'side-effects' (economy vs lack of general medical care).

And i don't think acting early and decicively would hurt the economy more than waiting or simply being too late either. At the end, those that let the famous 'curve' get steepest (wittingly or unwittingly) will have the worst drop economically as they will then have to shut down longer.
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Old 03-29-2020, 02:47 PM   #2837
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...ion-its-worse/

Seems like a sound plan.
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Old 03-29-2020, 06:11 PM   #2838
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Good friend of mine had a friend of hers die from it today. Otherwise healthy guy in his mid 40s
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Old 03-29-2020, 06:22 PM   #2839
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Who knows if he'll stick with this new, new plan, but it's good that Trump is now looking at the end of April at least for relaxing recommendations.
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Old 03-29-2020, 06:24 PM   #2840
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we just got an emergency phone notification: "anyone entering RI after out-of-state travel for non-work purpose must quarantine 14 days"

edit: considering I live about a half mile from the state line.. Um...
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Old 03-29-2020, 06:29 PM   #2841
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Maybe Fauci finally got to him about how serious this is. Another 30 days is the right thing to do. And he was even talking about June 1 for the end of the curve so maybe it'll go one more month after that.
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Old 03-29-2020, 06:32 PM   #2842
Brian Swartz
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There seems to be an increasing penchant to link to stuff that is on subscription-only sites that I, and assumedly others, have no intention of subscribing to. It seems more productive to me to provide a summary or relevant snippet, unless you don't want some of the people in the thread to read it but in that case why post about it in the first place.
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Old 03-29-2020, 06:37 PM   #2843
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Originally Posted by Brian Swartz View Post
There seems to be an increasing penchant to link to stuff that is on subscription-only sites that I, and assumedly others, have no intention of subscribing to. It seems more productive to me to provide a summary or relevant snippet, unless you don't want some of the people in the thread to read it but in that case why post about it in the first place.


From the above wapo article.



Quote:
Millions of Americans continue to live under state-issued stay-at-home orders, an effort to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus that has infected about 90,000 people in the United States. By containing the spread, officials hope to better understand the scope of the viruss reach and reduce the strain on hospitals from an influx of new cases.


Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) doesnt seem to have a sense of urgency about implementing a similar order in her state.

Yall, we are not Louisiana, we are not New York state, we are not California, she said on Thursday, according to the Montgomery Advertiser. Right now is not the time to order people to shelter in place.

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Old 03-29-2020, 06:47 PM   #2844
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From wapo re: Louisiana governor

Quote:
The governor said he thinks Mardi Gras, on Feb. 25 this year, contributed to the spread of the virus but that officials never considered canceling celebrations.

“If you’ll go back, you will see that the federal government was saying things were well under control,” he said.

So yea, good luck with that Alabama...
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Old 03-29-2020, 07:25 PM   #2845
thesloppy
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Just the picture from that Alabama press conference sucks confidence out of me.



It looks like they're in a back corner of a bank. And check out those two goons.
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Old 03-29-2020, 07:27 PM   #2846
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But he did have mad dodging skillz.

I'll concede that point
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Old 03-29-2020, 07:32 PM   #2847
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Sorry if this has been posted already, I don't always follow the thread:


Country music star Joe Diffie has died from the Coronavirus at age 63
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Old 03-29-2020, 08:39 PM   #2848
Ben E Lou
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We had dinner tonight with friends, one of whom is a pulmonologist. He's done as much independent research as he has been able to above and beyond the guidance from CDC/WHO/etc. He's definitely extremely concerned. Probably the most chilling thing he said is that hospitals could be overwhelmed to the point of "this patient needs to be on a life support system, but all of them are currently in use and we can't get any more."
So...the connection here is that he (let's call him "Brad") and his wife ("Brenda") co-lead the community group we're a part of through our church. (Community groups consist of 4-8 family units that meet weekly for bible study, prayer, sharing what's going on in our lives, etc.) Our CG hadn't met since 3/8; tonight was the first virtual/Zoom meeting. We've been in the group for 2+ years, and tonight was the first time I've seen "Brenda" cry. ("Brad" wasn't in attendance because he was at the hospital.)

He has worked 12-hour shifts for--I think she said--every day for the last 7 days. She said "he wears what looks like a space suit to work." They have three children--two school-aged, and a two-year-old. She is trying to home school the older two while managing a toddler and worrying that the entire family may already have the virus. She is used to seeing her mother almost daily, but hasn't seen her in 3ish weeks. She has no help dealing with the kids, as her husband is on the front lines every day. Brad hasn't interacted with the youngest child in over a week because he leaves before his son wakes, and doesn't get home until after he's asleep. According to Brenda, even Brad is commenting at how quickly this thing goes from "bad cold" to "life threatening" in a matter of hours. Everyone in the group wants to help Brenda, but we all felt so utterly powerless. She promised that she'd reach out to us if she needs any errand run. She shared how ANGRY she gets every time she sees or hears about someone not taking the quarantines/social distancing seriously. Everything she shared was so absolutely gut-wrenching that it's hard to even describe. I think everyone there would break social-distancing recommendation to help, but she's (rightly) insistent that her family adhere to a strict quarantine because of what Brad has been exposed to.
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Last edited by Ben E Lou : 03-29-2020 at 08:40 PM.
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Old 03-29-2020, 08:59 PM   #2849
Lathum
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Horrific what our health care workers are going through.
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Old 03-29-2020, 10:32 PM   #2850
Brian Swartz
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Twas a better overall day for deaths, esp. in America. Interested to see if that holds or was just a blip.
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