COVID-19 - 3/23 - Poll #7b - How long will it take the Dow to rebound?

Edward64 · 03-23-2020, 01:27 PM

I know the better question is how long for the economy to recover but the Dow is just an easier "measure" to approximate the return.

Per the Poll #7 thread ...

Quote:

This will be a 2-part poll. This asks how low will Dow go and the next one will be how long do you think it'll take for Dow to recover.

FYI, during the Great Depression the US stock market dropped approx. 90%, unemployment rose hit 23%, and took about 10 years to recover.

The Dow high was Feb 12 at 29,551. On Fri Mar 20, the Dow is at 19,173. So approx a third down so far.

Edward64 · 03-23-2020, 01:33 PM

I like to think this will be a V shape recovery once a vaccine has been found. So I like to believe it'll be in 12-18 months.

spleen1015 · 03-23-2020, 01:40 PM

It took 4 years to get from where we are today to the height a few weeks ago, so.....

QuikSand · 03-23-2020, 02:06 PM

We can have one hell of a rally without seeing the Dow 30 getting back to 29K. If you buy the argument that the Dow was overpriced there, we can "fully correct" and price in some of that bubble, be back to, say, $25K by the end of calendar 2021 and everything will seem "fine." But by this metric, and I'm sure by partisan talking points at that time, not "back."

Racer · 03-23-2020, 03:56 PM

It took the Dow Jones about 25 years to get back to where it was prior to the Great Depression so hopefully this is not similar to that. The Great Recession was about 4 years.

I went with >3 years.

Edward64 · 03-24-2020, 11:01 AM

Just a depressing thought. Walking the dog this morning and remembered there were a ton of for-sale signs in our neighborhood during the GR.

I hope it's not that bad this time around.

View Poll Results: How long will it take the Dow to rebound back to high?
1. 6 months or less	0	0%
2. 6-12 months	2	7.41%
3. 12-18 months	5	18.52%
4. 18-24 months	5	18.52%
5. 24-30 months	4	14.81%
6. 30-36 months	1	3.70%
7. > 3 years	8	29.63%
8. Still trouting for toilet paper	2	7.41%
Voters: 27. You may not vote on this poll

03-23-2020, 01:40 PM	#3
spleen1015 Coordinator Join Date: Sep 2003	It took 4 years to get from where we are today to the height a few weeks ago, so..... __________________ Why choose failure when success is an option?

03-23-2020, 01:33 PM	#2
Edward64 Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2005	I like to think this will be a V shape recovery once a vaccine has been found. So I like to believe it'll be in 12-18 months.

03-23-2020, 02:06 PM	#4
QuikSand lolzcat Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Annapolis, Md	We can have one hell of a rally without seeing the Dow 30 getting back to 29K. If you buy the argument that the Dow was overpriced there, we can "fully correct" and price in some of that bubble, be back to, say, $25K by the end of calendar 2021 and everything will seem "fine." But by this metric, and I'm sure by partisan talking points at that time, not "back."

03-23-2020, 03:56 PM	#5
Racer College Benchwarmer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana	It took the Dow Jones about 25 years to get back to where it was prior to the Great Depression so hopefully this is not similar to that. The Great Recession was about 4 years. I went with >3 years.

03-24-2020, 11:01 AM	#6
Edward64 Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2005	Just a depressing thought. Walking the dog this morning and remembered there were a ton of for-sale signs in our neighborhood during the GR. I hope it's not that bad this time around.

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