Clemson v. Alabama, Round II

[Kodos]

Who do you think will win? (Not who are you rooting for.)

I'm thinking Clemson pulls the upset.

[albionmoonlight]

I'll go with Clemson. I think that the teams are close, so Alabama having to switch OCs will be enough to tip the balance.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I'll go with Clemson. I think that the teams are close, so Alabama having to switch OCs will be enough to tip the balance.

These are my thoughts as well.

[Logan]

Alabama until proven otherwise.

[vex]

Originally Posted by Logan

Alabama until proven otherwise.

This.

[Suicane75]

Clemson, and I don't think it's particularly close.

[bhlloy]

Teams are so close, going with the one with the better, more experienced QB. With the added bonus that Hurts by all accounts got on well with Kitten, and could be hurt (no pun intended) by the switch

[CrescentMoonie]

Final nail in the coffin on the overrated SEC this year. Clemson is just better.

[Atocep]

I don't think the teams are all that close. The 7 points spread is fair IMO. Clemson is good, but recency bias is swinging things too far their way IMO.

Alabama outplayed them throughout the year and Bama's floor is much higher than Clemson's. If both teams play their best it should be a great game, but I don't have much faith in Clemson repeating their performance from this past weekend.

[CU Tiger]

I'm not deep enough into truly studying Bama....I'll answer Thur/Fri.

I will say this. I think Clemson's D is going to surprise lots of folks in this game. No second shutout or anything. But right now, I think 25 wins this game.

[jbergey22]

Spread looks solid. Bama -6.5/7. Staying away from that number. I think the under is a nice play if you can get 51.5 or higher. Smart money went early on Alabama, Public backing Clemson + thus far. Whether is was to push the line to 7.5-8 and buy back on Clemson is something I am curious about.

I think it will be a lot lower scoring than last year and end up something like 24-17, 24-14, 23-17.

Clemson's game plan has to be not to turn the ball over. If Watson floats a couple of lazy passes up there early for bama it eliminates any chance.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

I'm not deep enough into truly studying Bama....I'll answer Thur/Fri.

I will say this. I think Clemson's D is going to surprise lots of folks in this game. No second shutout or anything. But right now, I think 25 wins this game.

Agree

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Clemson's game plan has to be not to turn the ball over. If Watson floats a couple of lazy passes up there early for bama it eliminates any chance.

That's always the plan. Somehow for 2 years it hasn't hurt them.

To be critical of your statement, Watson has rarely if ever "floated a lazy pass"...he had 2 picks against Ohio State.
1 the WR fell down on a pure timing route. Watson threw the ball before he fell.
The 2nd was a designed shot call. He throws it deep regardless of coverage. I dont agree with that call, btw, but it is in the playbook. Willing to risk INTs in exchange for backing off the back 5. The brain trust look at it like a punt. If I was going to run that in that situation Id be throwing to 6'5" Williams not 5'11 Renfrow...but Im not the coach.


I'm more worried about special teams blunders again tbh than I am INTs.

[VPI97]

Clemson by double digits. Three of the four units that will take the field could be described as exceptional...the one that is merely average (by top 10 standards) is the Alabama offense.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by Logan

Alabama until proven otherwise.

Indeed

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by VPI97

the one that is merely average (by top 10 standards) is the Alabama offense.

Yards per play:
Alabama: 6.4
Clemson: 6.1

Points per play:
Alabama: .545
Clemson: .467

3rd Down Conversion:
Alabama: 47.22%
Clemson: 50.75%

Red Zone Scoring:
Alabama: 88.33%
Clemson: 81.82%

FEI Offensive Rank:
Alabama: 16
Clemson: 10

S&P Offensive Rank:
Alabama: 9
Clemson: 6

[VPI97]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Yards per play:
Alabama: 6.4
Clemson: 6.1

Points per play:
Alabama: .545
Clemson: .467

3rd Down Conversion:
Alabama: 47.22%
Clemson: 50.75%

Red Zone Scoring:
Alabama: 88.33%
Clemson: 81.82%

FEI Offensive Rank:
Alabama: 16
Clemson: 10

S&P Offensive Rank:
Alabama: 9
Clemson: 6

I wish they could break that down by date range, because it seems to me that the Alabama offense has skewed slightly downhill over the last half of the season, while Clemson's offense has improved over the same timeframe. My viewpoint based on where the offenses stand right now is what led me to me thoughts above.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by VPI97

I wish they could break that down by date range, because it seems to me that the Alabama offense has skewed slightly downhill over the last half of the season, while Clemson's offense has improved over the same timeframe. My viewpoint based on where the offenses stand right now is what led me to me thoughts above.

Understandable

TeamRankings does break down overall by last 5 and has Alabama and Clemson as the top 2 teams in the country over that time with Alabama holding a rather large edge. I haven't seen and don't know of anything that will break down just the offenses over that time though.

I think Alabama's offenses under Saban have generally been much better than most people realize. They tend to run fewer plays than most of the other top offenses, but their overall efficiency is usually outstanding.

[CU Tiger]

I just cant get a feel for this one.

Ive now watched every Bama game from this season. Hurts arm doesnt scare me. At all. Unless the coverage busts and its wide fawking open. Which may be plausible considering what it could take to slow down that rushing attack.

Bama wont have the success some seem to think lining up and plowing right at Clemson. This is one of the two best DL Bama has seen all year. To me its a coin flip between Clemson and LSU as to who is more talented and deeper specifically at the DL positions. Clemson's bigger OLs are built to flow downhill and stop the run. If Bama runs for over 150 Clemson has had a bad night. The only way thy do that, in my opinion, is either through Hurts scrambls when blitzes dont get home or by attacking the edges with slashes and cut backs.

Clemson wont make hay by lining up and running right at Bama. Shocker there, huh? But if at the end of the night Gallman doesnt have 18+ carries this is a L. Id rather see a stat line here where Gallman has 20 carries for 42 yards than 11 carries for 90+. They have to keep the SS and ILB home to open the creases for the quick passing game and to allow Watson's feet and the jet motion to attack the edge and to keep OLBs from creeping to the flats to combat the screen game. If Tony Elliott abandons the run too early it will be disastrous. Fortunately for Clemson he has been praised for sticking wih it the last two years, even when it wasnt working, with 2 exceptions. NCSU this year when Gallman was knocked out on the first quarter and Pitt. Both games proved tighter than they should have been.

When Watson has time to throw, and he will at times, he can pick the Bama secondary apart. This is the biggest advantage I see on either side. Clemson WR against Bama secondary.

I think the game hinges on this one final factor. When Bama gets to Watson, and they will. How well does he escape. Clemson's OL is average to slightly above average across the board. The weak spot is currently RG where still 18 year old True Freshman Sean Pollard has been forced into action after the loss of Starter Jake Fruhmogen who is battling clinical depression. Pollard is powerful and has DECENT feet. Great feet for a Fr but DECENT overall.

He will need to play over his head at times to slow down Bama's DEs. He will fail a few times. It is going to happen.

So when he (and others do) if Watson slips free and turns would be sacks into no gains or +1 - +4s. Clemson has a chance. If the rush gets home more times than not and perhaps strips the ball, Bama almost certainly wins. If Watson escapes and turns those scrambles into multiple (I'm going to quantify multiple as 3) 10-15 yard gains. Bama will be forced to stay home more and Clemson moves well above 50% chance in the win column to me.

A field position game strongly favors Alabama as Clemson's punter is...not good. I'm being kind to the young man. He threw a 31 yard punt last year against Oklahoma in the playoff. That would rank only slightly below his average punting distance.

So a final prediction....

I pride myself on trying to never fall into fan boy status in general and especially around here. I love my Tigers, but I try to never be blinded by that love. I think most (heck probably everyone not named Marmel) would agree I avoid that trap usually.

I am a huge proponent that to be the man you have to beat the man and until proven otherwise Bama is the Man.

This game is too close to call to me on analysis alone.
I'm concerned that Vegas thinks its a 7 point game. I dont get that line at all. That line alone gives me pause. They didnt build those huge buildings being way wrong very much. Then again Ohio State was a 4 point favorite.

Maybe they just dont know how to read this Clemson team?

(Please indulge me just a bit here)
If I pick Bama and Clemson wins I may never forgive myself for doubting my boys.
If I pick Clemson and Bama wins, then surely I jinxed my team.

Time to man up and make a prediction.

In college football there are 2 great equaliziers in my opinion.
1- Coaching
2- QB play

#1 Goes to Bama. No doubt. However its offset slightly (or potentially increased) by the turnover this week
#2 Goes to Clemson and it isnt close. From my admittedly homerific perspective Deshaun Watson is the best player in the country. He isnt as athletic or freakish as Jackson. But he is a better football player. If these two teams are as close as I think they are, and if Vegas is wrong, then Watson is the difference.

My feeling is Clemson wins this 31-28.

[Butter]

This game reminds me of Vince Young against USC in 2006. USC was the unstoppable force, but VY's transcendent QB play was the difference. I just hope it can be again Monday night.

We'll see.

[HomerSimpson98]

Great and fair analysis.

I think its simple. If Bama can force a couple turnovers, they win. Bama doesnt really start rolling until they get that first TO. And once the first comes, they seem to come in bunches. A defensive TD for Bama would be disastrous for Clemsn, IMHO.

Another unknown is Kiffin being gone. How easily will Sark step in and be comfortable calling plays? Kiffin did a good job throughout the season, but he still had some "WTF are you calling that for?!?!?!" moments. If Sark tries to air it out for some dumb reason, that will not work. He needs to play it conservative and pick his spots to go down the field.

I also dont know how to predict this game. Watson is fantastic. But this Bama front 7 is absurd. Also, if the refs are going to be ticky-tacky in the defensive secondary, that also will benefit the Tigers. I think it all comes down to turnovers.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

In college football there are 2 great equaliziers in my opinion.
1- Coaching
2- QB play

#1 Goes to Bama. No doubt. However its offset slightly (or potentially increased) by the turnover this week

#1 could be bigger than people think. Sark is a good coach, better than Kiffin IMO, but he is still going to be calling Kiffin's offense, using his terminology. He will know and understand the offense, but as an OC, the biggest part of being successful is feeling the flow of the game and adjusting on the fly. Both of these skills are going to be somewhat hampered by not being 100% comfortable in the terminology, like he would be if it was 'his' offense and also experience with the scheme and players.

Alabama is a better team overall, but it is very close and this intangible could tip it to Clemson.

[bhlloy]

If the punter is throwing the ball, I think I may have found the flaw in his game

Seriously though, great writeup

[Kodos]

albionmoonlight, bhlloy, Bisbo, bronconick, Butter, BYU 14, clemsonfan, CrescentMoonie, CU Tiger, dfisher, ISiddiqui, Kodos, NobodyHere, SlyBelle1, Suicane75, TroyF, VPI97

Nice going, boys!

[Antmeister]

Originally Posted by Butter

This game reminds me of Vince Young against USC in 2006. USC was the unstoppable force, but VY's transcendent QB play was the difference. I just hope it can be again Monday night.

We'll see.

Looks like your wish came true. Not only that, but the Clemson QB referenced Vince Young as well by stating he was his inspiration.

[BishopMVP]

Very glad I was wrong, congrats to the Clemson crew here!

Btw, I don't quite know Mitch Trubisky well enough to denigrate him, but if you have him (or DeShone Kizer) over Deshaun Watson as an NFL QB I seriously question that judgment.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Very glad I was wrong, congrats to the Clemson crew here!

Btw, I don't quite know Mitch Trubisky well enough to denigrate him, but if you have him (or DeShone Kizer) over Deshaun Watson as an NFL QB I seriously question that judgment.

Thought he showed a lot of the required intangibles last night but some of those throws in the 1st half were pretty rough. If Mike Williams played merely like a potential 1st round pick instead of a complete god, it's a very different game.

[RainMaker]

Watson was great but that Mike Williams guy bailed him out a few times on some throws. Just an incredible title game by clearly the two best teams in college football.

[CrescentMoonie]

Watson doesn't have an NFL skill set right now. He's mediocre from the pocket, but worth taking a 3rd or 4th round shot on. With all the change in football, the biggest thing is still passing the ball from inside the tackles. I don't get the Kizer hype at all, but Trubisky is a better prospect.

[Atocep]

Congrats to Clemson. They did what they needed to do to beat a great team.

Watson played well, but I didn't see anything that suggests he's anything more than a serious project at the next level. Mike Williams is a stud though. Great player.

[HomerSimpson98]

What a game. And Reuben Foster is no man. He is machine.

[ISiddiqui]

Great game! I was concerned in the first quarter that it would be an Alabama blowout, but great fight in Clemson and I cheered very, very loudly on that last TD (and then the onside ).

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I cheered very, very loudly on that last TD (and then the onside ).

I cheered loud enough to scare the crap out of my wife, who was snoozing on the couch upstairs.

[CU Tiger]

2 things here from my phone as I travel home...
1 those were not bad throws by Watson. They literally scheme, practice and plan to throw high point jump balls to Williams. It's a skill he has and they exploit it. Notice when Cain was playing the 9 spot the throws aren't high. Cain doesn't have the high point ability.

2- since Chad Morris left for SMU, Tony Elliot has been co-OC and exclusive play caller. In that time the Tigers are 29-2. Elliott was a walkon WR at Clemson when Dabo was wr coach. Dabo put him on scholarship. Later when Dabo was HC he called Elliott , who is a degreed and licensed Professinal Mechanical Engineer and was working for Michelin Tire ...Dabo told him he belonged in football. Elliott left a 150k year job with a huge stable company to try coaching for the first time. I'd say it worked out.

Here is a short article worth reading.

The incredible underdog story of Clemson offensive coordinator Tony Elliott

[Logan]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

2 things here from my phone as I travel home...
1 those were not bad throws by Watson. They literally scheme, practice and plan to throw high point jump balls to Williams. It's a skill he has and they exploit it. Notice when Cain was playing the 9 spot the throws aren't high. Cain doesn't have the high point ability

I don't know if you're referring to me but I think I'm the only one who referenced bad throws so...I wasn't talking about those jump balls. He was sailing throws in the 1st half. From PFF, facing no pressure, he was 9-16 for 4.1 Y/A and a 66 rating.