NFL Week 16

[Butter]

Bengals @ Denver Monday night in battle of the defenses, or which backup QB will screw the game up the least? Game will basically determine the 2nd bye in the AFC.

On a side note, Charles Woodson announced his retirement at end of the season.

As much as I hated him growing up as a young Buckeye fan, hats off to him. He had a great career and seems to be well-liked throughout the league. He will be missed.

[albionmoonlight]

Pats have a perverse incentive to lose to the Jets to try and keep the Steelers out of the playoffs.

[albionmoonlight]

dola

Not saying they will lose or try to lose. Just that if they did lose, then they make it more likley that Fitzpatrick makes the AFC playoffs over Roethlisberger

[rowech]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

dola

Not saying they will lose or try to lose. Just that if they did lose, then they make it more likley that Fitzpatrick makes the AFC playoffs over Roethlisberger

Problem there would be they could lose home field that way.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by rowech

Problem there would be they could lose home field that way.

The Patriots would also have to lose to the Dolphins to make that happen.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

The Patriots would also have to lose to the Dolphins to make that happen.

Are you 100% on that? Bengals win out and Patriots lose to the Jets, they would finish tied and I think go to strength of victory tie break.

[digamma]

The Patriots would have a better record against common opponents, so you don't go to strength of victory.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by digamma

The Patriots would have a better record against common opponents, so you don't go to strength of victory.

Aren't they both 3-1 against common opponents assuming Bengals beat Denver?

[Radii]

New England: W Pitt, W Bills, W Bills, L Broncos, W Texans

Cinci: W Bills, W Pitt, L Texans, L Pitt, ? Broncos

Pats would have the better common opponent record no matter what happens with Cinci vs Denver.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by Radii

New England: W Pitt, W Bills, W Bills, L Broncos, W Texans

Cinci: W Bills, W Pitt, L Texans, L Pitt, ? Broncos

Pats would have the better common opponent record no matter what happens with Cinci vs Denver.

Was mixing the Texans. Thanks for clarification.

[Thomkal]

Of course you are talking about the Jets beating the Patriots, which never happens no matter the head coach

[NobodyHere]

Well some potential good news for the Redskins

Redskins: Judge rules censoring trademarks is unconstitutional - NFL - SI.com

[Buccaneer]

My son and I have been discussing endlessly about where we would like the Pats to be seeded and who to root for (e.g., Bengals vs. Broncos). It's mostly centered around the Steelers. I think we got a consensus of taking a chance in playing the Steelers at home with the #1 seed...if healthy...knowing that the AFC championship will be played at home. Similarly, we have thoughts about how the Cardinals can avoid the Seahawks in the NFC.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

My son and I have been discussing endlessly about where we would like the Pats to be seeded and who to root for (e.g., Bengals vs. Broncos). It's mostly centered around the Steelers. I think we got a consensus of taking a chance in playing the Steelers at home with the #1 seed...if healthy...knowing that the AFC championship will be played at home. Similarly, we have thoughts about how the Cardinals can avoid the Seahawks in the NFC.

For the last two weeks, I've started predicting a Steelers-Seahawks Super Bowl.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Similarly, we have thoughts about how the Cardinals can avoid the Seahawks in the NFC.

Staying the 2 seed is the answer here if you're a Cards fan if all you want to do is increase your odds of dodging Seattle for as long as possible. Beating them in the last week of the regular season in the hopes of knocking them down to the 6 seed instead of the 5 so that they have to go through Green Bay instead of the NFC East would help as well.

For the past few weeks now I've been doing the same as you as far as noodling out who to root for in order to give Carolina the best chance in the playoffs, and every dominant Seattle performance worries me more and more. Pending injuries in the final two weeks at least, it is really starting to feel inevitable that the Divisional Round of the playoffs will be Seattle @ Carolina, and I feel that the winner of that game is the most likely team to win the super bowl.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Of course you are talking about the Jets beating the Patriots, which never happens no matter the head coach

Pretty sure Rex Ryan's Jets beat them in the playoffs one year (when Welker held that 'foot' press conference).

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by JAG

Pretty sure Rex Ryan's Jets beat them in the playoffs one year (when Welker held that 'foot' press conference).

don't ruin my Jets "hatred"

[flere-imsaho]

IMO, trying to dodge a particular team in the playoffs should still never be prioritized over getting home field advantage.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by rowech

Was mixing the Texans. Thanks for clarification.

Yup. I should have mentioned that to clarify.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

IMO, trying to dodge a particular team in the playoffs should still never be prioritized over getting home field advantage.

Absolutely, its more of an exercise as a fan looking at all the possibilities for playoff seeding and what it might mean for playoff matchups, not that I actually think Arizona should not want home field b/c of a possible outcome.

[Galaril]

I wonder what is the historical number of teams with HFA that made it to the SB. It seems like lots of WC have made it recently except for last year or two ?

[Radii]

Originally Posted by Galaril

I wonder what is the historical number of teams with HFA that made it to the SB. It seems like lots of WC have made it recently except for last year or two ?

http://www.profootballhof.com/news/top-seeds/

23/40 in the NFC, 21/40 in the AFC post-merger.

Since the NFL went to 6 playoff teams in 1990, 11/25 in the AFC, 14/25 in the NFC.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Radii

http://www.profootballhof.com/news/top-seeds/

23/40 in the NFC, 21/40 in the AFC post-merger.

Since the NFL went to 6 playoff teams in 1990, 11/25 in the AFC, 14/25 in the NFC.

Thanks so basically 50% over a long number of years. So HFA is an advantage but not one that good teams as can't overcome.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Pats have a perverse incentive to lose to the Jets to try and keep the Steelers out of the playoffs.

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

IMO, trying to dodge a particular team in the playoffs should still never be prioritized over getting home field advantage.

I'm with flere here... Just get the 1 seed and let it play out. As long as we're at home, Bengals/Broncos, Steelers/Chiefs, even Jets to Steelers are close enough that it's not worth even risking anything. (Now, if we could guarantee a matchup vs the AFC South champ...)

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Of course you are talking about the Jets beating the Patriots, which never happens no matter the head coach

Unless Mark Sanchez is at Quarterback. I don't really understand that season either

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by Radii

http://www.profootballhof.com/news/top-seeds/

23/40 in the NFC, 21/40 in the AFC post-merger.

Since the NFL went to 6 playoff teams in 1990, 11/25 in the AFC, 14/25 in the NFC.

To add to this, some additional numbers:
In the playoffs, home teams have won 67% of the games since the start of the 12-team format (introduced in the 1989/1990 season).

But I prefer to ignore the old 6-division format, because the seeding was very different.

When we trim it down to the current 32-team system (introduction of 4 divisions per conference), home teams have won 60% of the games: 72-48. What jumps out in my research: in the NFL, the #5 seed on average has 1 win more than the #4 seed. To put into perspective: only 4 of the 26 #4 seeds had a better record than the #5 seeds, 5 times the records were equal, 17 times the visiting #5 had a better regular season record. Only 2 #6 seeds have had a better record than the #3 seeds, 4 times they had the same record, 20 times the #3 seed had a better record.

seed - avg # of wins
#1 - 13.2 wins (range 11 to 16)
#2 - 12.1 wins (range 10 to 14)
#3 - 10.9 wins (range 10 to 13)
#4 - 9.6 wins (range 7 to 12)
#5 10.6 wins (range 8 to 12)
#6 - 9.8 wins (range 8 to 11)

Sample size is small, but contrary to what you'd expect, the #6 seeds have won more wild card round games than the #5 seeds.
#4 vs #5: 16-10
#3 vs #6: 14-12

Unsurprisingly, in this same time period, the divisional round has featured 0 games where the visiting team had a better regular season record, while only 7 of 52 games had teams with an equal record. (So far, no wild card teams have had a better regular season record than the #2 seed, which is very hard to accomplish and makes it near impossible to begin with.)

The 26 conference finals have been played by equal teams 4 times and (unsurprisingly) only once the visitors had a better record (in 2008 NFC#6 9-6-1 Eagles visited NFC#4 9-7 Cardinals).

[Thomkal]

In case you missed it, Beckham had his appeal and lost it. Norman was fined a small amount (20k? 30k?) and is appealing. If what was said and done before the game is true (threatening Beckham with a bat, calling him homophobic names), Norman shouldn't be the only ones fined.

[oykib]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

In case you missed it, Beckham had his appeal and lost it. Norman was fined a small amount (20k? 30k?) and is appealing. If what was said and done before the game is true (threatening Beckham with a bat, calling him homophobic names), Norman shouldn't be the only ones fined.

Beckham should take the NFL to court. What he did might be worth a suspension in a reasonable world. But stuff people have done just this year are worse, and those haven't gotten suspensions.

How does a judge look at essentially unpunished guys poking people in the eye or hitting people with helmets and uphold Beckham's suspension?

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by oykib

Beckham should take the NFL to court. What he did might be worth a suspension in a reasonable world. But stuff people have done just this year are worse, and those haven't gotten suspensions.

How does a judge look at essentially unpunished guys poking people in the eye or hitting people with helmets and uphold Beckham's suspension?

It was clear that Beckham was trying to injure Norman. Even on the touchdown late in the game he purposedly stepped on his ankle/foot trying to hurt him. He was fortunate none of them were season ending. He was a level above those you mentioned. He was completely out of control. Given the players union success rate in previous trials, it would not surprise me if they went to court just to suspend the suspension and let Beckham play this week, which would sicken me. I think ever since the Brady trial, the NFL is running a bit scared when it comes to discipline-only giving out fines so the Players Union won't challenge them.

[oykib]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

It was clear that Beckham was trying to injure Norman. Even on the touchdown late in the game he purposedly stepped on his ankle/foot trying to hurt him. He was fortunate none of them were season ending. He was a level above those you mentioned. He was completely out of control. Given the players union success rate in previous trials, it would not surprise me if they went to court just to suspend the suspension and let Beckham play this week, which would sicken me. I think ever since the Brady trial, the NFL is running a bit scared when it comes to discipline-only giving out fines so the Players Union won't challenge them.

Worse than intentionally poking someone in the eye, or hitting someone with a helmet? Really?!



Only one of those happened during game action. But it's the only one that's punished? They should all sit for multiple games after those infractions, or none of them should.

I'm not saying it's not worth a suspension. I'm saying that a suspension defies any standard of precedent.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by oykib

Worse than intentionally poking someone in the eye, or hitting someone with a helmet? Really?!



Only one of those happened during game action. But it's the only one that's punished? They should all sit for multiple games after those infractions, or none of them should.

I'm not saying it's not worth a suspension. I'm saying that a suspension defies any standard of precedent.

Make sure to show the lead up to Jones against the Raiders. Wasn't Miller suspended for his? In addition, I believe a lot of Beckham's is the fact he kept accumulating throughout the game and that hit was the one that was the final one in a string of one game.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Even on the touchdown late in the game he purposedly stepped on his ankle/foot trying to hurt him.

On this play? Odell Beckham Jr. TD & Allen Iverson Stepover on Josh Norman! | Panthers vs. Giants | NFL - YouTube

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by sabotai

On this play? Odell Beckham Jr. TD & Allen Iverson Stepover on Josh Norman! | Panthers vs. Giants | NFL - YouTube

well I thought it was that play, but looked like he stepped over Norman. They way he was marching around, it had looked like he stomped on him originally.

[Julio Riddols]

I think Beckham initially was going to stomp on Norman on that TD, but had a last second conscience tug that pushed him to refrain.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by rowech

Make sure to show the lead up to Jones against the Raiders. Wasn't Miller suspended for his? In addition, I believe a lot of Beckham's is the fact he kept accumulating throughout the game and that hit was the one that was the final one in a string of one game.

It was Talib that got suspended for the eye poke.

[stevew]

Drew Brees is injured and questionable. The Saints are 5-9. Common sense suggests giving Grayson a look for a couple games, but if there's a stat to be padded, Drew is there.

[Thomkal]

Browns players arrested on Christmas day following traffic stop - SBNation.com

[Suicane75]

At this point would Browns fans just wish that they hadn't come back at all? It's like a zombie movie where Grandpa comes back from the dead but he spends his time eating maggots and trying to kill you instead of playing canasta and telling grand old stories.

[sabotai]

Let's go Eagles (for just this week)!

[QuikSand]

are we hearing Peyton Manning HGH rumors?

[Thomkal]

This should make someone (s) here happy:

Niners promote Jarryd Hayne to active roster - NFL.com

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

are we hearing Peyton Manning HGH rumors?

where?

[QuikSand]

On phone/twitter, one sec (I'm at poker table)

[QuikSand]

Explosive Documentary Links Peyton Manning, Major Athletes To Doping Ring

[stevew]

Whoa.

James Harrison too.

[sabotai]

LOL Cousins...

[Radii]

Originally Posted by sabotai

LOL Cousins...

That was a pretty hilarious brain fart right there.

[cuervo72]

That whole sequence was hilarious.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Explosive Documentary Links Peyton Manning, Major Athletes To Doping Ring

Eh Andy Pet... I mean... Peyton Manning probably only did it one time coming back from injury.

[stevew]

This needs broken out into its own thread

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Explosive Documentary Links Peyton Manning, Major Athletes To Doping Ring

It wasn't banned by the NFL until 2011 according to the article, which is when it places Manning getting treatments.