Werewolf XXXVI: Resident Evil (S.T.A.R.S. Wins! Post #1424)

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

Its like the reverse Schmidty strategy!

-Anxiety

Well, its more a desperation move. If he throws a fit , then people will second guess themselves and wonder "Gee maybe he is really just a frustrated villager" and vote elsewhere.

Or they will allow it to affect their judgement on whom to vote for, and instead of looking at all the choices and making a logical deduction they will say well I don't want to be a fool or idiot, so Im not going to do that!

I don't mind being an idiot, because I already plan on invoking the schmidty gambit on day 5

I forsee one of two things happening here:

1) Enough people doubt it to the point they look elsewhere to make it a race and at which time he will jump back in and move his vote somewhere to save himself.

2) Enough votes will stack up against him where he and his team mates will feel its a forgone conclusion and decide to get their votes in too to try to build trust for voting for a bad guy.

I personally was hoping today there would be somewhat of a race between people and not just an everyone pile on one person day. In my mind the most ideal scenerio is we have fouts v cronin where its umbrella vs zombies and we can learn alot by other outside party's maneuvering.

[hoopsguy]

Funny stuff, Anxiety.

Cronin, lets talk this through if you are STARS. I'm going to come at it from my perspective on the game so there will be assumptions in here that I am STARS. If you choose to ignore these, that is fine.

1.) Lathum comes out and votes for me on Day 1. Clearly not the Chief, allegiance unknown
2.) You come out shortly thereafter, saying that an early vote = bad guy or Chief, then vote early for me. You are clearly not the Chief, allegiance unknown
3.) You become the 2nd choice candidate yesterday in a runoff with a hero (Bullet)
4.) You come out today and say that the strategy should be to look for the people who voted early for Bullet, although that makes zero sense if it was STARS vs STARS as you assert
5.) You now say that Lathum is not the Chief because he voted for you early - the EXACT argument I made yesterday when he voted for me


If you are STARS, then it would make sense to look at the people who advocated the inclusion of both you and Bullet yesterday, not just the people who pushed for Bullet.

So, what am I missing with this analysis that should help me believe you are STARS and that we should be starting to look at new candidates rather than considering voting records from yesterday?

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I personally was hoping today there would be somewhat of a race between people and not just an everyone pile on one person day. In my mind the most ideal scenerio is we have fouts v cronin where its umbrella vs zombies and we can learn alot by other outside party's maneuvering.

You could always change your vote to Fouts to push the race idea a bit. I would do it for you, but I already talked about voting for st.cronin and since people were trying to link me with him...

Vote st.cronin

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by BrianD

You could always change your vote to Fouts to push the race idea a bit. I would do it for you, but I already talked about voting for st.cronin and since people were trying to link me with him...

Vote st.cronin

I thought about it, but two reasons I won't.

1) I have accumulated my share of critics whom probably are a collection of zombies, umbrellas and misguided Stars who would most likely use it as some excuse that I'm trying to weasel out of my vote in case it goes bad, or whatever.

2) St. Cronin's play trying to make people have doubts about voting for him just in case he might be the police chief when he isn't removed any doubt that I had in my mind of my vote for him in the first place

[Tyrith]

I vote we ban cronin from WW if he's going to be so unsporting about this. It's not like everyone was advocating lynching you for the sake of lynching you do, dude. Grow up.

[Tyrith]

Honestly, I don't think cronin is a bad guy, I think he's a good guy that made a massive fuck-up yesterday and is unacceptably frustrated because he can't dig himself out of the hole. We can't just narrow beam on him like this, it's not gonna get us anywhere. I'm still advocating lynching him at some point because we're gonna need to look at voting records later, but if we do it now and he comes up good we're resetting the game information wise, just down four good guys.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

I vote we ban cronin from WW if he's going to be so unsporting about this. It's not like everyone was advocating lynching you for the sake of lynching you do, dude. Grow up.

Eh, he's probably either just upset that this day/game hasn't quite like he envisioned it or he's using this as a strategy to try to draw attention to other people (We have seen the self vote used before successfully to avoid being lynched).

Either way he's a good player, contributes a good bit in WW games that he runs and in games he plays in. Just this game I think we had the upper hand on him is all.

[hoopsguy]

Definite over-reaction, Tyrith. He has a right to be frustrated by the last couple of games. But if he does elect to take his ball and go home (vote self, not participate in conversation) then people have a right to factor that into future games.

Cronin, if you really are STARS lets try to work through this. I don't want to go down three men with the lynch today. If you aren't STARS, well keep doing what you are doing

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Definite over-reaction, Tyrith. He has a right to be frustrated by the last couple of games. But if he does elect to take his ball and go home (vote self, not participate in conversation) then people have a right to factor that into future games.

Cronin, if you really are STARS lets try to work through this. I don't want to go down three men with the lynch today. If you aren't STARS, well keep doing what you are doing

Honestly, I'm sick of self voting in these games. If you take the ball and go home even though there are still people that are trying to help you out that just shows you don't care about anyone else in the game but yourself. So feel free to quit, just don't come back for a while because I don't want to deal with the relapse case.

[BrianD]

I am in no way advocating the chief say anything, but it must be frustrating for him/her at this point. He/She knows if st.cronin is STARS or now, but really can't (and shouldn't) say anything.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by BrianD

I am in no way advocating the chief say anything, but it must be frustrating for him/her at this point. He/She knows if st.cronin is STARS or now, but really can't (and shouldn't) say anything.

Chief couldn't say anything anyway, it'd constitute a role reveal and the chief would probably burst into flame or something.

I think we've put way too much of a focus on the chief in this early going. We really can't use the chief for anything for at least a couple of more games, and like I said earlier, any speculation we put out there is just giving the bad guys more stuff to analyze so they can eat his brains before we're going to get much out of him. Think of him as a seer except that he actually has to be dead before we can use him -- you wouldn't go out talking about who you think the seer might be, would you?

[Lathum]

can someone please explain to me how fouts and I became linked? I don't understand how I was trying to "save" a guy who had no votes and no heat on him?

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Lathum

can someone please explain to me how fouts and I became linked? I don't understand how I was trying to "save" a guy who had no votes and no heat on him?

Alan. I listened to Alan connect the dots...which might have been a mistake. His entire theory on Day 1 has kind of gone too far at this point, I think.

[spleen1015]

My availability for the evening is in question, so I need to vote. I will definitely be unavailable from 7:30pm until after deadline. So, I'll just do this.

VOTE Alan T

I voted for Alan because I think he theory is totally bunk at this point in the game. He talks about being disappointed in all of the smart players in the game because they haven't come out with this. Well, I know he is a smart guy, so I don't see how he can have so much faith in something so flawed. He gets my vote because he is strong in his convictions with his theory and that doesn't make any sense to me.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Alan. I listened to Alan connect the dots...which might have been a mistake. His entire theory on Day 1 has kind of gone too far at this point, I think.

well in post #507 you say the "connection" between fouts and myself bothers you the most. Where do you see a connection?

Maybe alanT can answer that question? Point out where you see it and give me a chance to explain.

Hoops, you also are suspect of me, can you explain why? I'll be here pretty much all day to discuss.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Lathum

well in post #507 you say the "connection" between fouts and myself bothers you the most. Where do you see a connection?

Maybe alanT can answer that question? Point out where you see it and give me a chance to explain.

Hoops, you also are suspect of me, can you explain why? I'll be here pretty much all day to discuss.

To be honest? I was mostly following Alan's analysis. I think we need to kill someone out of all this weird speculation crap just to see where we stand, but I don't think we're gonna get much out of killing cronin because it's gonna be a total dogpile. So at this point I'm starting to go back to Alan, as much as I don't want to.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Alan T

You aren't the police chief, don't even try to pretend to be him trying to get someone else to out themselves in a way that it makes it obvious who it is.

He's right, though... if you were the police chief, you probably wouldn't be pushing the game as hard and you certainly wouldn't have pushed to have bulletsponge included in a runoff, right?

I'm not trying to align with st.cronin, but I think at this point we need to branch out from the pairing we had yesterday.

[Tyrith]

The best way to describe what I'm thinking right now is that I'm not thinking as much as I should be. Sorry guys, I'm just being kind of fuzzy and stupid.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

well in post #507 you say the "connection" between fouts and myself bothers you the most. Where do you see a connection?

Maybe alanT can answer that question? Point out where you see it and give me a chance to explain.

Hoops, you also are suspect of me, can you explain why? I'll be here pretty much all day to discuss.

Based on your actions this morning. I come out leaning towards voting fouts and explain why, you jump all over me for my thoughts, but then when I finally decide to go with cronin for the day you suddenly jump on the vote with me and leave the discussion with the comment that you'll go along with me for the cronin vote, but then if cronin is good, we need to go after me next (and ignore fouts).

Those actions just implanted some connection between you two in my head.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

He's right, though... if you were the police chief, you probably wouldn't be pushing the game as hard and you certainly wouldn't have pushed to have bulletsponge included in a runoff, right?

I'm not trying to align with st.cronin, but I think at this point we need to branch out from the pairing we had yesterday.

I already stated that I am not the police chief. Im not quite sure what you are referring to here.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

He's right, though... if you were the police chief, you probably wouldn't be pushing the game as hard and you certainly wouldn't have pushed to have bulletsponge included in a runoff, right?

I'm not trying to align with st.cronin, but I think at this point we need to branch out from the pairing we had yesterday.

Are you suggesting an alternative?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

To be honest? I was mostly following Alan's analysis. I think we need to kill someone out of all this weird speculation crap just to see where we stand, but I don't think we're gonna get much out of killing cronin because it's gonna be a total dogpile. So at this point I'm starting to go back to Alan, as much as I don't want to.

Like I said before, if you feel that way then vote for me. I already stated that it wont be a huge loss to my team (Whatever you think my team is) for me to die today.

What my death will accomplish likely is for people to turn right around and go after cronin tommorrow and then possibly fouts the following day. It won't clear anything here.

But I fully encourage people to make this a voting race so its not an everyone jump in on the bad guy and make votes meaningless. We can then see if I get lynched who exactly it was that doomed the STARS player that had nothing to gain from coming out with this theory and everything to lose (drawing attention, getting possibly lynched) by this.

So if you truly want to vote for me, go right ahead. Im not going to get frustrated, I will ask you for your reasons and try to poke holes in them and such.

[Tyrith]

Sigh. And now that I go back and read it I do have to acknowledge that Lathum's rage died down when cronin became the target.

I'm not voting for cronin. I suspect he's gonna be lynched, there's a chance he comes up bad, but so be it. I don't think we gain anything by lynching Alan today either, when he's going to keep drawing votes for a while and we can use him for a vote record monkey.

So that leads me back to Fouts. And while I don't like Alan's pushing, there might be something there. We need to make a race out of this to see if someone goes screwy, and I do kind of want to keep Alan in the game. If the race is gonna happen it probably needs to start now.

VOTE FOUTS

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Honestly, I'm sick of self voting in these games. If you take the ball and go home even though there are still people that are trying to help you out that just shows you don't care about anyone else in the game but yourself. So feel free to quit, just don't come back for a while because I don't want to deal with the relapse case.

In all fairness I did this a few games back because I was also frustrated. I actually didn't get killed that day...I was suprised too. I then took a game off and got back in. sometimes it's needed out of sheer frustration sometimes. I finally was night killed though I think

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

In all fairness I did this a few games back because I was also frustrated. I actually didn't get killed that day...I was suprised too. I then took a game off and got back in. sometimes it's needed out of sheer frustration sometimes. I finally was night killed though I think

True, and I probably did overreact. But self-voting isn't fair to the other people in the game. Instead dump the vote on someone, go ahead and leave for the rest of the day, and if you're that frustrated you can drop out of the game and someone can take your place. It's really not fair to your teammates if you give up.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

True, and I probably did overreact. But self-voting isn't fair to the other people in the game. Instead dump the vote on someone, go ahead and leave for the rest of the day, and if you're that frustrated you can drop out of the game and someone can take your place. It's really not fair to your teammates if you give up.

it's not alway a give up case though. I actually have only self voted once and like I said it was due to complete frustration. That could be why it was done, it also could be a rouse to fool us which I've seen used and work in the past too. If you dump the vote and survive you will be questioned about it later on as well so the safest vote is on yourself in the case of frustration. I guess the other side is if he does die and is bad it gives no one any analysis as well. I think dropping out because of frustration is total bush league though, and no I wouldn't say self voting falls in that category in all cases.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

True, and I probably did overreact. But self-voting isn't fair to the other people in the game. Instead dump the vote on someone, go ahead and leave for the rest of the day, and if you're that frustrated you can drop out of the game and someone can take your place. It's really not fair to your teammates if you give up.

It might just be my paranoid nature, but I always expect a reaction like that to be well calculated.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Based on your actions this morning. I come out leaning towards voting fouts and explain why, you jump all over me for my thoughts, but then when I finally decide to go with cronin for the day you suddenly jump on the vote with me and leave the discussion with the comment that you'll go along with me for the cronin vote, but then if cronin is good, we need to go after me next (and ignore fouts).

Those actions just implanted some connection between you two in my head.

Alan, I didn't jump on you for wanting to vote for fouts. I jumped on you because of the notion that the police chief wouldn't vote for a member of stars when it was quiet possible BOTH were members of starts.

Then you act like it was some big risk you were taking voting on St. Cronin like you had some revelation. I voted for Cronin yesterday and saw no reason to change my vote. If you look back through previous games I usually vote the same person the first 2 days unless there is a reason not to. Don't act like I was "going along with you" because that's not the case at all. If anything YOU are going along with ME since you voted bulletsponge yesterday.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

it's not alway a give up case though. I actually have only self voted once and like I said it was due to complete frustration. That could be why it was done, it also could be a rouse to fool us which I've seen used and work in the past too. If you dump the vote and survive you will be questioned about it later on as well so the safest vote is on yourself in the case of frustration. I guess the other side is if he does die and is bad it gives no one any analysis as well. I think dropping out because of frustration is total bush league though, and no I wouldn't say self voting falls in that category in all cases.

If you're frustrated and you vote yourself then leave that's giving up to me. I know it's been talked about in the past that self voting should be banned, and I absolutely agree with that idea. If someone is going to be totally frustrated and not try to play well then they should quit for the good of the team, and for themselves -- don't stay in the game if it's making you feel worse! This is supposed to be fun!

Oh, and Brian, it wasn't calculated because I was, and still am, rather pissed. This entire discussion, at least on my side, is totally OOC.

[LoneStarGirl]

I definitly dont think St. Cronin is a STARS and the only reason i voted for him yesterday was because he was the worse of the two evils in my opinions. I just think Alan is trying to sound o smart so that everybody believes everything he says. Well I am not buying it. Plus I am still angry that he didn't let me be a cowboy in Tombstone.

Vote AlanT

[LoneStarGirl]

I am close to voting for Tyrith just because he is whining too much, but I am going to refrain.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

If you're frustrated and you vote yourself then leave that's giving up to me. I know it's been talked about in the past that self voting should be banned, and I absolutely agree with that idea. If someone is going to be totally frustrated and not try to play well then they should quit for the good of the team, and for themselves -- don't stay in the game if it's making you feel worse! This is supposed to be fun!

Oh, and Brian, it wasn't calculated because I was, and still am, rather pissed. This entire discussion, at least on my side, is totally OOC.

I knew I should have gone back and clarified that. I meant that I thought st.cronin's reaction was calculated. If he turns out to be bad, I won't be surprised at all if he comes back smiling at a radical gambit that didn't work. I could be totally off though.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

I am close to voting for Tyrith just because he is whining too much, but I am going to refrain.

And now I'm close to voting to you for thinking about voting that way.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Funny stuff, Anxiety.

Cronin, lets talk this through if you are STARS. I'm going to come at it from my perspective on the game so there will be assumptions in here that I am STARS. If you choose to ignore these, that is fine.

1.) Lathum comes out and votes for me on Day 1. Clearly not the Chief, allegiance unknown
2.) You come out shortly thereafter, saying that an early vote = bad guy or Chief, then vote early for me. You are clearly not the Chief, allegiance unknown
3.) You become the 2nd choice candidate yesterday in a runoff with a hero (Bullet)
4.) You come out today and say that the strategy should be to look for the people who voted early for Bullet, although that makes zero sense if it was STARS vs STARS as you assert
5.) You now say that Lathum is not the Chief because he voted for you early - the EXACT argument I made yesterday when he voted for me


If you are STARS, then it would make sense to look at the people who advocated the inclusion of both you and Bullet yesterday, not just the people who pushed for Bullet.

So, what am I missing with this analysis that should help me believe you are STARS and that we should be starting to look at new candidates rather than considering voting records from yesterday?

Ok, back from lunch, sorry about the meltdown. Still working my way through the thread, but I like working with hoops.

1. My thinking yesterday, which has been either deliberately misrepresented by people, or which I did not explain clearly was this - the FIRST vote on any given player, and the first vote overall, were MOST likely to come from either the police chief or umbrella/zombie. That vote came from Lathum. The reason I didn't vote for Lathum was, if he WAS the police chief, the possibility of a bandwagon/landslide vote made that too risky a move. So my thinking was, vote for the guy he votes for - if hoops turns up good, then I think it's better than even odds that Lathum is bad. Then today Lathum votes for ME first - so I know he's not the police chief. Hence, he's high on my list.

4. The early votes for bullet were BEFORE it was clear that it would be a stars v stars contest. This was hashed out before between me and I forget who - somebody said, wouldn't it be the the LATE votes that are more likely to be bad guys? And I said "no, because the late votes were choosing between stars and stars." The EARLY votes, and in particular the FIRST vote for bullet, I think are most likely to be non-stars.

5. If you can make the argument, why can't I? You say you're stars, I say I'm stars. Neither one of us knows about the other one.

[Abe Sargent]

I personally agree with Tyrith on the self-voting thing.

[st.cronin]

unvote st.cronin
vote AlanT

I will be around for a little less than an hour. I suspect Lathum and AlanT at the moment.

[Tyrith]

So, cronin, where are you gonna go? Because I really want to make this a race situation.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I already stated that I am not the police chief. Im not quite sure what you are referring to here.

I'm referring to st.cronin's post saying that you are not the chief, which I was taking to be making a logical inference rather than just taking you at your word.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by BrianD

Are you suggesting an alternative?

Not at this point, no.

I'd rather not vote for st.cronin or Alan.

I don't have a read on Fouts.

I have another person who would interest me as a possible candidate, but as we're playing a little close to the vest on the whole chief thing, I'm not comfortable getting into that yet.

[st.cronin]

I have class tonight. I will probably be back before the deadline, but not much before the deadline.

And yes, Mr. W is correct - we know AlanT is not the police chief because of his vote yesterday. There is NO other player that we can all agree that that is true.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Not at this point, no.

I'd rather not vote for st.cronin or Alan.

I don't have a read on Fouts.

I have another person who would interest me as a possible candidate, but as we're playing a little close to the vest on the whole chief thing, I'm not comfortable getting into that yet.

Sigh, sadly I've kind of reached this point too.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

And yes, Mr. W is correct - we know AlanT is not the police chief because of his vote yesterday. There is NO other player that we can all agree that that is true.

You are saying this because he was the first to vote for Bullet, right?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

1. My thinking yesterday, which has been either deliberately misrepresented by people, or which I did not explain clearly was this - the FIRST vote on any given player, and the first vote overall, were MOST likely to come from either the police chief or umbrella/zombie. That vote came from Lathum. The reason I didn't vote for Lathum was, if he WAS the police chief, the possibility of a bandwagon/landslide vote made that too risky a move. So my thinking was, vote for the guy he votes for - if hoops turns up good, then I think it's better than even odds that Lathum is bad. Then today Lathum votes for ME first - so I know he's not the police chief. Hence, he's high on my list.

I'm not sure I agree with this reasoning--I disagree that the first vote on any given player is particularly more likely to be from Umbrella or a zombie--but at least it makes your actions make sense.

4. The early votes for bullet were BEFORE it was clear that it would be a stars v stars contest. This was hashed out before between me and I forget who - somebody said, wouldn't it be the the LATE votes that are more likely to be bad guys? And I said "no, because the late votes were choosing between stars and stars." The EARLY votes, and in particular the FIRST vote for bullet, I think are most likely to be non-stars.

Again, I don't know about the first vote, but I think there's something to your argument here about early votes.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Not at this point, no.

I'd rather not vote for st.cronin or Alan.

I don't have a read on Fouts.

I have another person who would interest me as a possible candidate, but as we're playing a little close to the vest on the whole chief thing, I'm not comfortable getting into that yet.

See, I don't understand this. If you suspect somebody of being a zombie, go ahead and name him. How can you naming a suspect possibly lead anybody to the chief?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Because my reasoning is entirely based on a particular theory of something the chief would have done -- my reason for selecting the candidate points directly to a possible chief.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by BrianD

You are saying this because he was the first to vote for Bullet, right?

YES

[path12]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

And now I'm close to voting to you for thinking about voting that way.

Ah, werewolf.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

YES

Thought so, just wanted to make sure I didn't miss anything.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Because my reasoning is entirely based on a particular theory of something the chief would have done -- my reason for selecting the candidate points directly to a possible chief.

But you don't have to elaborate on your reasoning.

[Tyrith]

Cronin's reasoning is sound, Alan is more likely to be a bad guy -- the fact that he isn't the police chief mathematically means there are fewer good slots for him to occupy. Meaning you have a marginal advantage over anyone else. The same is true, with diminshing chances, for the people that voted for bullet in order. If cronin is also good then after the first few votes it doesn't really matter because of the race situation, which would also explain the lack of late movement yesterday.