2022 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown

[QuikSand]

Well, here we are. Might as well have a chat about things, the field is coming into shape.

Baffert is suspended, but his charges are in good (allied) hands.

Several top contenders here, but nobody overwhelming... might have 3-4 choices in the 3-1 to 5-1 range, rather than just one heavy favorite.

[QuikSand]

https://www.drf.com/derby-watch#road-to-the-derby

[QuikSand]

This guy has done videos of all the races of most of the Derby players...

Gary King - YouTube

[QuikSand]

This analysis of the Santa Anita Derby is important, as it affects two of the serious contenders on this field, TAIBA and MESSIER:

Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby: Santa Anita Derby analysis

If you think MESSIER just got winded doing the work needed to run down a quality sprinter in Forbidden Kingdom, then maybe he won't be similarly shot next time out, and might be a forward factor. I don't rule it out.

If you credit TAIBA with everything he showed in this race, then he's a major talent and serious threat, despite being so lightly raced. 15 years ago I would have confidently tossed a horse so lightly seasoned, but these days I don't do so as easily. He might just be the premier talent in this field, only now revealing what seemed was coming all along.

It was a very good looking run from TAIBA, watched live and re-watched after the fact.

[QuikSand]

Online BRISnet past performance info for the likely Derby field (though without recent workouts):

Scribd

The speed rating of 111 that awarded MO DONEGAL for the Wood is a standout, enough to feel like an aberration. I need to process that, and rewatch that race another ten times. I didn't feel like I was seeing as much quality there as I felt like I was seeing at Santa Anita (TAIBA) but maybe that was me being fooled.

[weegeebored]

I don't follow the horses nearly as much as I used to. I am not even that excited about Derby Day, and really haven't been for a few years. That said, here are some different figs to look at. Timeform US arguably has the best numbers. There is no better figure guy than CJ, imo. Post #22 for the numbers. I think that Mo Donegal's number is an aberration and he will likely be overbet. Pass on him for the win hole.

TFUS figs

[Ksyrup]

I believe by Saturday afternoon most of the rain is supposed to be gone, but starting tomorrow we're in for a rather wet and stormy week. Oaks Day looks particularly stormy. Hopefully the Derby will be OK.

[QuikSand]

Kentucky Derby post positions 2022: draw, odds, lineup, full field

[QuikSand]

EARLY VOTING doesn't enter, and that thins out the early speed in the field --- potentially good for forward-runners like EPICENTER and MESSIER. CLASSIC CAUSEWAY is in, though, and he should be part of the front pace setup, though he draw an outside post.

I do not expect double digit odds on TAIBA, like the morning line suggests. But I expect I will be glad to accept anything north of 5-1 as a gift. He may just be better.

[QuikSand]

I like watching for horses who can handle traffic... BARBER ROAD is going to get a fairly big price, I think, and has shown some late effort in/through traffic more than once. I expect to drop him into some exotics.

[QuikSand]

Just send a ticket musing to some friends:

6 10 12

1 6 10 12 14 15

1 6 8 9 10 12 13 14 15 16

=120 bets


Actual order of finish:
12 TAIBA 12-1
1 MO DONEGAL 10-1
6 MESSIER 8-1
14 BARBER ROAD 30-1

$$$$$

[QuikSand]

Friday always gives some useful insight into the actual odds, and where they will vary from the morning line:

Live Odds and Entries for the 2020 Kentucky Derby | 2022 Kentucky Derby & Oaks | May 6 and May 7, 2022

12 TAIBA unsurprisingly will be down with the favorites, not up in double digits like the 12-1 ML... that was fantasy. The current 5-1 is a bit thin, but he's likely still my choice.

10 ZANDON at 8-1 is a pretty good price if that holds, he has every chance to win this, I'd say

I'll need to rewatch the races from CHARGE IT, who's down to only 12-1 and isn't on my radar at all yet

21 RICH STRIKE will draw into the field at the 20th post, with ETHEREAL ROAD scratching...not a pace factor, he's a late running clunker but I may use him in exotics off that nice workout (and he should be a huge price)

[albionmoonlight]

Mrs. A and I got invited to a Derby party tomorrow. The group is not a gambling-type group, but I think that I can get folks involved in something for low stakes.

Is there a game that's like the equivalent of football squares for a horse race? Something that's easy to explain and execute and folks can throw $5 in the pot and we all have something to cheer for?

[QuikSand]

I have seen it done with 20 fishbowls (or the like)... you buy a ticket for a dollar or whatever, and put your ticket into one of the fishbowls that correspond to the horses. Then split up the pot in some fashion, based on the outcome. Easiest is to split the pot into 6 pieces, and draw 3 from the winning runner's bowl, 2 from the second place runner's bowl, and one from the third place runner's.

It works out to imply the same sort of pari-mutuel betting as the real thing... there should be 10-20 tickets in for the favorite, but only one or two for a longshot. If there are 90 total tickets, you can award $15 to each of 6 winners, and if you were the only person to put in a buck on a longshot that came in, you're a guaranteed winner. If you picked the favorite along with others, you have a lesser shot at a payoff.

[QuikSand]

Closer to a football-style "squares" game could be an exacta-style grid. I'd set it up like this (to keep it manageable, and give longshot horses a fair shot by bundling them together a bit):

EACH AXIS (first place is across, second place is down):
1
2/4/5
3
6
7/8/9
10
11/13/14
12
15-21

That's 9x9 entries, then you cross off the 5 places where single numbers intersect... so for a $1 play the winner takes home $76, not bad. Or split the final group into two and it's a 10x10 grid with 5 dead spots.

[Ksyrup]

That's about what we're doing in our office. I've got 3 horses, Taiba being one of them.

Today's an unofficial holiday in Louisville so our office is closed. Bosses are taking clients to Oaks and Derby. I'm glad not to be going this year, but once both kids are out of the house, we may try to sneak in the group next year.

[Ksyrup]

Didn't even think about Oaks being televised but I ran across it on USA. Incidentally, I'm still not used to tuning into USA Network to watch sports. Better chance of hoping to find reruns of Silk Stalkings.

[QuikSand]

CHARGE IT now into my top half dozen picks, I think

[QuikSand]

doesn't look like weather will play any sort of factor, a little rain yesterday but clear today, track seems to be playing fairly

10 12
1 6 8 10 12 15
1 6 7 8 10 12 14 15 16

[Arles]

I like this crop - I think I'm fading the 3 (which could come back to haunt me). I like the 8 Charge it, 10 Zandon, 12 Taiba and 16 Cyberknife. I'm also doing some WPS bets on two long shots I like (both 40-1): 13 Simplification and 14 Barber Road

For exactas, I have pretty close to what Quik did in his first post above for the top two lines (added the 16) for my $1. For my $2, I did:
8,16
3,6,10,12

[QuikSand]

I have $10 live on the Oaks-Derby double with 12 TAIBA so that's my win bet, for all intents and purposes. Despite my splash here with big tickets, I am generally not all that deep of a bettor.

I have two tri tickets entered, and I'm probably on my way toward a couple more w-t-f tickets in the last ten minutes before it goes off, but my final thoughts:

I just feel like TAIBA has shown me the most talent
ZANDON should be the favorite and is an overlay in the 8-1 range
I'm fading EPICENTER without much remorse
CHARGE IT moving up my board and into my exotic bets now
the workouts from CROWN PRIDE have me messing up wagers to get him in
RICH STRIKE does not have the lowest chance of hitting the board
MESSIER has a similar narrative to last year's MEDINA SPIRIT, beware

seriously, just a "Santa Anita was the key race" outcome and it comes in 12 or 6/6 or 12/x/x would not come as any kind of surprise to me, and the bettors seem to agree as they're putting both of them lower than the ML suggested

see y'all in the drunk guy thread, especially if any of this nonsense hits for another crush (honestly last year I was all over MEDINA SPIRIT, but it was my quiet backing of actual official winner MANDALOUN that sent me into four figures and the IRS window)

[Lathum]

7 to win

Exacta 7/1-6-11-12-16
Tri 7/1-6-11-12-16

[Ksyrup]

Rooting for one of the 6 horses from a farm in Woodford County. That's good odds!

[Racer]

Wow. First alternate with 79-1 odds won.

[PilotMan]

That was amazing.

[Lathum]

Holy crap. Right before post me and my buddy saw the progressive pants the jockey had on riding the 21. I used to work for them and he does still. I bet $50 to win and place on him right before the race stared for shits and giggles.

[Ksyrup]

The overhead replay watching the horse manuever was fantastic. That jockey earned his victory.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

21 RICH STRIKE will draw into the field at the 20th post, with ETHEREAL ROAD scratching...not a pace factor, he's a late running clunker but I may use him in exotics off that nice workout (and he should be a huge price)

dammit

[albionmoonlight]

Our hosts cleaned up on our party bets. I’m determined to make it up via drinking their bourbon.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I don't know much about horse racing but I'm pretty sure I just saw one helluva bit of work by a jockey ... and a horse that just said "fuck all y'all and your odds"

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

The overhead replay watching the horse manuever was fantastic. That jockey earned his victory.

Pretty awesome that he's a local Cincy track jockey who ran 6 races yesterday in Cincinnati. Talk about a fantastic career booster.

[Ksyrup]

Turns out the trainer is a cousin of one of my daughter's classmates. I mean, it's KY and Versailles is pretty small, so the odds someone's related is pretty good.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Holy crap. Right before post me and my buddy saw the progressive pants the jockey had on riding the 21. I used to work for them and he does still. I bet $50 to win and place on him right before the race stared for shits and giggles.

wow

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Holy crap. Right before post me and my buddy saw the progressive pants the jockey had on riding the 21. I used to work for them and he does still. I bet $50 to win and place on him right before the race stared for shits and giggles.

And the payout?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

And the payout?

Just under 6K...wife is currently dress shopping online

[JPhillips]

Nice.

[JPhillips]

The overhead view makes Rich Strike's comeback for the upset @KentuckyDerby win look even more incredible. �� #KyDerby | @ChurchillDowns pic.twitter.com/iDfkGVZS0O

— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) May 8, 2022

[Lathum]

unbelievable ride

[JPhillips]

Freeze it at :29 and there's no way that horse can get to the front before the race is over. Just incredible.

[stevew]

I have to see the analytics on this race. Like that horse was freakin DK Metcalf

[PilotMan]

Pretty sweet analysis of the race.

What we learned: Epicenter runs best in Kentucky Derby defeat

[dacman]

Was trying to think of any other derby winner with a trip like that, and the only one I could think of was MINE THAT BIRD. Then a co-worker told me today that MINE THAT BIRD and RICH STRIKE are related. Of course they are. Of course.

[QuikSand]

Preakness Stakes PPs from BRIS:

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=2102880

Derby winner isn't running (old news) and runner up EPICENTER looks to be a very short price.

Despite it being a fairly long race, the Pimlico rail has launched quite a few longshots to steal this on the front end. Here, 5 EARLY VOTING looks like the quality among the early speed horses, with 7 ARMAGNAC and 3 FENWICK also probably thinking that's their play. Where does EPICENTER want to be relative to them? His perfect ride is presumably to stay close and just win this with his class/talent. 1 SIMPLIFICATION likely wants to be positioned right in the same place. And the filly 4 SECRET OATH... maybe there or just behind them?

I'm not tossing out the 6 HAPPY JACK, and may use him as a longshot to get involved late.

[QuikSand]

have hit a few chalky exotics to be up for the day, but nothing special

speed has been holding up nicely on the PIM track today, overall... hot day may be a factor

i just can't get over EV getting caught in his last race, after getting such an easy trip up front...he looks like the one to chase/catch early but i don't know how crowded it may be up front, as a stalking trip feels like the best play for the logicals... i'm really torn

[QuikSand]

...one more nice triple, not my main idea but my one ticket hit

[QuikSand]

My day continued as it had been going, I hit another chalky 50c trifecta but it didn’t put me ahead for the race. My key horse for the day ran third, and my key horse in the big race made a weird decision to run toward the front, inexplicably, and faded early.

Ok then.

[Ksyrup]

Breeders Cup is in Lexington this weekend. Weather will be warm but Saturday will be very windy and there's a possibility of late day rain. I'm not going but traffic will be fun.

Apparently FLIGHTLINE is the clear favorite, having won all 5 of its races by a combined 62+ lengths. A former jockey whose name I didn't catch was interviewed and said he is the most dominant horse since Secretariat. I guess we'll see.

[QuikSand]

I'm having a pretty good BC making small (two-digit, not three digit) wins in several of the exotics this far. Haven't made a major hit yet, but there's always value in these stacked fields.

FLIGHTLINE looks like one for the ages, to be honest. Baffert usually shoots straight, and in his pre-BC interview he all but said his horse (TAIBA, no slouch) is running for 2nd or 3rd unless something weird happens.

[QuikSand]

ooh, this could be good, my key horse just beat a heavy favorite in the BC Sprint, i used him in everything

[QuikSand]

If the #2 BLUE STRIPE upsets the field in the BC Distaff, at a pretty big price, I'm set for ... a ... rather big day.