Werewolf XXXIII: To Crown a King 2 (Game Over)

[hoopsguy]

Note - this is not a random Day 1 vote. I almost never put votes on Blade early in games. But I would prefer not to spell out my logic quite yet as it may end up correcting the behavior of other assassins. I will post on this before the end of the day.

2nd Note - this is not a "seer" view or anything like that either. It represents an inductive leap that may or may not be correct. Which is why I would encourage people to come forward if they think I'm making a poor play. There are a couple of people who I would definitely listen to at this point in the game and immediately unvote Blade if they instruct me to do so.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Note - this is not a random Day 1 vote. I almost never put votes on Blade early in games. But I would prefer not to spell out my logic quite yet as it may end up correcting the behavior of other assassins. I will post on this before the end of the day.

2nd Note - this is not a "seer" view or anything like that either. It represents an inductive leap that may or may not be correct. Which is why I would encourage people to come forward if they think I'm making a poor play. There are a couple of people who I would definitely listen to at this point in the game and immediately unvote Blade if they instruct me to do so.

How can we have that kind of inductive leap already? We haven't even had everyone check in yet. Could there really have been a mistake already to show someone as being an assassn?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by BrianD

How can we have that kind of inductive leap already? We haven't even had everyone check in yet. Could there really have been a mistake already to show someone as being an assassn?

Brian, I obviously think so since I put the vote out and framed it like this.

The only reason I'm not spelling out my reasons right now is BECAUSE everyone has not checked in yet and I don't want to provide the assassins with what I'm looking for at this point. But I will do so upon returning home from work today (probably 60-90 minutes before the deadline).

It is entirely possible that I'm seeing something that isn't there with Blade. Which is why I left it open for people to vouch for him. I don't think one person on his faction doing so would significantly impact the outcome of the game - I figure that we will collectively start piecing together factions pretty quickly.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

It is entirely possible that I'm seeing something that isn't there with Blade. Which is why I left it open for people to vouch for him. I don't think one person on his faction doing so would significantly impact the outcome of the game - I figure that we will collectively start piecing together factions pretty quickly.

I may be missing something in the rules, but would people in his faction even know him?

[hoopsguy]

I know my faction leader and I believe that by the end of the day I will know my faction members.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by BrianD

I may be missing something in the rules, but would people in his faction even know him?

Nevermind, I answered my own question.

[hoopsguy]

Let me come at this from another direction, Brian:

If you had to pick one person to defend at this point, would you go with Blade or Anxiety? We don't have a lot of posts from either of them yet ... but with the information we currently have I think Blade is making a play.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Let me come at this from another direction, Brian:

If you had to pick one person to defend at this point, would you go with Blade or Anxiety? We don't have a lot of posts from either of them yet ... but with the information we currently have I think Blade is making a play.

We are on page 3 of the game, right? I didn't miss a whole bunch of posts? How did this come to a choice between Blade and Anxiety?

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by BrianD

How can we have that kind of inductive leap already? We haven't even had everyone check in yet. Could there really have been a mistake already to show someone as being an assassn?

Really stupid question here, but what exactly is "checking in"? Is it, "noble checking in", or something similar to that? Or is it simply posting in the thread?

[RealDeal]

Hoops, it's always hard for me to resist a Blade bandwagon, but it's pretty weird to do the "vote for x now, I'll explain later" thing, particularly on the first day. I've seen two posts from Blade, neither seemed interesting. Could you maybe explain a little more?

[Lorena]

I remember perfectly well what happened last game with the "I'll explain later" thing.

[RealDeal]

Dola, I'm sensitive to this because I was killed that way last game. GE placed his vote and then said he would explain later, and there was nothing there at the end of the day.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

Really stupid question here, but what exactly is "checking in"? Is it, "noble checking in", or something similar to that? Or is it simply posting in the thread?

I just meant posting in the thread. Most people don't have much to say at the beginning of the game, but they do post *something* just to let people know they are around. It helps to differentiate between the people that haven't figured out what to say from the people that haven't been able to get to the board yet.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by BrianD

I just meant posting in the thread. Most people don't have much to say at the beginning of the game, but they do post *something* just to let people know they are around. It helps to differentiate between the people that haven't figured out what to say from the people that haven't been able to get to the board yet.

Ahh... okay, thanks for the clarification BrianD.

[ntndeacon]

Hoops, I can't imagine why anyone's vote could be anything but random. Isn't the first person accused in this game usually innocent? I know I haven't seen anything in Blade's behavior yet that was suspicious.

[hoopsguy]

Brian, I can see where you would be worried that I'm trying to trap you here or provide information to the assassins. That is not my goal - what I want to see happen is that my JAIL vote goes towards an assassin.

Right now I have it on Blade. I strongly suspect that Blade is not part of the same faction as Anxiety. I suspect you are in a faction with one of the two.
- If you tell me to back off Blade, I'll do so and consider moving my vote to Anxiety (not a 100% certainty).
- If you tell me that you trust Anxiety equally with Blade, or more than Blade, then I'll leave my vote on Blade and wait for someone to come in and argue for/against having my vote on Blade.

There is incentive for my faction in being right, and in being first to be right. Guessing wrong is punished in the points total, so I would prefer not to be wrong - thus I'm asking for someone to back Blade if they think I'm making a bad move. The risk/reward in doing so is establishing a relationship with Blade early in the game. That relationship is likely faction-based, which is information that both the assassins and other factions will use as they play the game. But, personally, I would rather save a member of my faction from jail (and possible execution) than protect a portion of my faction identities.

[hoopsguy]

I think this will be the least random first day vote I have ever cast. Because as a noble, I already know the role of my leader. And I expect to know the identities of my faction members by the end of the day. So I will be working with a personal "cleared" list on Day 1 - a luxury that I never have in other games.

In terms of explaining what is going on, I can do it now if people really think that is the way to go. But in doing so it will likely make the assassins a little more cautious in their play for the remainder of the afternoon. If I have one of their members caught right now, they are already spooked. But they do not really know what behavior to avoid. If I spell it out now, it helps them play better over the next few hours.

I'm not positive I'm right - that is why I'm asking that if anyone KNOWS that I am wrong that they tell me. I don't know if BrianD is doing exactly that right now, or if he is just curious about my approach.

RD and DC - if I do not come forward with my thought process on this by midnight (leaving some wiggle room in here for real life emergencies) then I would strongly suggest you jail and kill me ASAP. I will definitely post my logic - later in the day, but will do so now if the hue and cry to do so is deafening.

[RealDeal]

Um, and why Anxiety? I just don't get it at all.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Brian, I can see where you would be worried that I'm trying to trap you here or provide information to the assassins. That is not my goal - what I want to see happen is that my JAIL vote goes towards an assassin.

Right now I have it on Blade. I strongly suspect that Blade is not part of the same faction as Anxiety. I suspect you are in a faction with one of the two.
- If you tell me to back off Blade, I'll do so and consider moving my vote to Anxiety (not a 100% certainty).
- If you tell me that you trust Anxiety equally with Blade, or more than Blade, then I'll leave my vote on Blade and wait for someone to come in and argue for/against having my vote on Blade.

There is incentive for my faction in being right, and in being first to be right. Guessing wrong is punished in the points total, so I would prefer not to be wrong - thus I'm asking for someone to back Blade if they think I'm making a bad move. The risk/reward in doing so is establishing a relationship with Blade early in the game. That relationship is likely faction-based, which is information that both the assassins and other factions will use as they play the game. But, personally, I would rather save a member of my faction from jail (and possible execution) than protect a portion of my faction identities.

I have no specific info on either of them, so I am not going to try to influence you in either direction. I'm just surprised you feel so strongly about anyone, let alone two people already. I would chalk it up to just knowing that they aren't in your faction, but as I understand it, you lose points if you jail/lynch a non-assassin, so there has to be something more there...

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Let me come at this from another direction, Brian:

If you had to pick one person to defend at this point, would you go with Blade or Anxiety? We don't have a lot of posts from either of them yet ... but with the information we currently have I think Blade is making a play.

WTF? Why am I always getting mentioned on Day One?

[hoopsguy]

RealDeal, I think that BrianD is on the same faction as either Anxiety or Blade, but not both. So that is why Anxiety.

Even if BrianD thinks that Blade is a part of his faction I would encourage him to double-check his assumptions. They are probably correct, and mine are most likely wrong under this scenario, but I will still ask him to do so.

[Abe Sargent]

Heh, my above post was at PI time.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

RealDeal, I think that BrianD is on the same faction as either Anxiety or Blade, but not both. So that is why Anxiety.

Even if BrianD thinks that Blade is a part of his faction I would encourage him to double-check his assumptions. They are probably correct, and mine are most likely wrong under this scenario, but I will still ask him to do so.

And the part of Blade this game will be played by hoopsguy.

That's a WW game I should do. Where everybody gets somebody else as a role and you have to play Schmidty "I'm the worst WW player evah," or Blade, "Everybody is a wolf," or hoopsguy, "let me give you every piece of information on every post player X has ever made," or Chubby, "You are a wolf and I know it! (he says to the seer.)"

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by BrianD

I have no specific info on either of them, so I am not going to try to influence you in either direction. I'm just surprised you feel so strongly about anyone, let alone two people already. I would chalk it up to just knowing that they aren't in your faction, but as I understand it, you lose points if you jail/lynch a non-assassin, so there has to be something more there...

Well, yes and no. For better or worse, putting a vote out there gets conversation going. I would stress that Day 1 in this format is not the throwaway that it is in most games because every noble (non-faction leader) should have a person on their trusted list. That list, by the end of the day, should likely include multiple people.

Even if we are on different factions, we have an opportunity to collaborate together, to some extent, to try and nail an assassin. That is my primary goal early, with a secondary goal of boosting my faction relative to the other factions.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

And the part of Blade this game will be played by hoopsguy.

That's a WW game I should do. Where everybody gets somebody else as a role and you have to play Schmidty "I'm the worst WW player evah," or Blade, "Everybody is a wolf," or hoopsguy, "let me give you every piece of information on every post player X has ever made," or Chubby, "You are a wolf and I know it! (he says to the seer.)"

This concept has been discussed before - someday someone will pull the trigger on it. I expect hilarity would ensue.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Well, yes and no. For better or worse, putting a vote out there gets conversation going. I would stress that Day 1 in this format is not the throwaway that it is in most games because every noble (non-faction leader) should have a person on their trusted list. That list, by the end of the day, should likely include multiple people.

Even if we are on different factions, we have an opportunity to collaborate together, to some extent, to try and nail an assassin. That is my primary goal early, with a secondary goal of boosting my faction relative to the other factions.

So you are throwing out a vote for Blade figuring that if he is a Noble Leader, someone will vouch for him? And if he isn't a leader....what then? I guess I can understand the idea of getting all of the factons to identify themselves, I just didn't see where the "knowledge" of Blade came from.

[hoopsguy]

Brian, I'm just about positive that I know the role of one of my fellow nobles that is not the noble leader. If that person was in real danger of getting put in jail I would speak on their behalf today. So this isn't about making a play at identifying another noble leader.

Truth be told, if I'm going to be wrong I would prefer that I'm wrong about a different noble leader based on the points system.

Brian, let me take this from a little different direction - what do you suppose is the goal of the assassins today, other than to avoid being jailed?

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Brian, I'm just about positive that I know the role of one of my fellow nobles that is not the noble leader. If that person was in real danger of getting put in jail I would speak on their behalf today. So this isn't about making a play at identifying another noble leader.

Truth be told, if I'm going to be wrong I would prefer that I'm wrong about a different noble leader based on the points system.

Brian, let me take this from a little different direction - what do you suppose is the goal of the assassins today, other than to avoid being jailed?

I suppose they would want to see one of the important roles jailed so that person's function couldn't be performed. I'd have to look at the opening descrption again to see which role would be best jailed. Another goal might be to make people think they are part of their factions?

[hoopsguy]

And, a separate conversation piece - the following people have not posted since the start of Day 1:

Qwikshot
Lonestargirl
Bulletsponge
Bek
Greyroofoo
St. Cronin
Kingfc22
Chief Rum
WVUFan

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by BrianD

I suppose they would want to see one of the important roles jailed so that person's function couldn't be performed. I'd have to look at the opening descrption again to see which role would be best jailed. Another goal might be to make people think they are part of their factions?

And how would you go about doing this?

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Brian, let me take this from a little different direction - what do you suppose is the goal of the assassins today, other than to avoid being jailed?

To get as much info as possible. And you are making that more likely. Good job hoops!

[hoopsguy]

Anxiety, information cuts both ways. If we know the faction members then we can easily identify the assassins. Which I feel is our primary goal.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

And how would you go about doing this?

I'm not sure. I suppose I might try to identify a leader and then show myself to be overly attached to him/her and try to mix in with all of the real faction members that are showing themselves to be attached to him/her?

[hoopsguy]

Victory Conditions:

Each side has its own set of victory conditions and can achieve various levels of success.

For the Assassins a normal victory is achieved when a 1-1 ratio of free Assassins and Nobles happens or if the Assassins cause a Revolt. A major victory is if an assassin is crowned king.

For the Nobles a minor victory is achieved if a non-assassin Noble, of a tolerated faction, is crowned king. A normal victory is achieved if a non-assassin Noble from one’s own faction is crowned king OR if all Assassins have been executed. A major victory is achieved if there are no free assassins and a noble from his faction is crowned king.

Dead players are assumed to have one less rank of victory than alive players (so a Normal Victory becomes a Minor Victory)

We lose the game if the assassins assume the thrown via Revolution. We can only get a major victory by eliminating the assassins. We get a normal victory by executing all the assassins.

If we take away their ability to hide, we pretty quickly achieve a normal victory. Now obviously a plan of "everyone admit their faction" doesn't work because the assassins will call out a faction as well. So we still have to use some old fashioned detective work. That is what I'm trying to do today. If information comes out that the assassins use better than we do, then shame on us.

[Chief Rum]

You can take one off of that list. I'm up and around now (on vacation and had a late nighty ).

And now that I have had a chance to read through this, hoops, I think you're trying to play us. It has the feel of a "hiding in plain sight" strategy, although it would be odd to put a target on yourself so early in the game if you were an assassin.

But jailing you isn't killing you (yet), so I feel pretty safe in doing this.

JAIL HOOPSGUY

I may change my vote once you explain more your reasoning, but right now, this seems the proper vote to me.

[hoopsguy]

Chief, here is the explanation - read your vote for me as I was typing this up.

Brian, here is how I would approach it as a bad guy.

1.) Sit back and watch early posts
2.) Try to identify one of the "codes" the factions are using
3.) Incorporate it into my post

This is what I think Blade has done today. Finding a way into a circle of trust is essential for the wolves in any WW game. In this one it is damaging in another sense, because they damage our ability to make effective use of points at the end of the day.

I think Blade went this direction, picking up on a cue from a couple of earlier posters. That is why I'm voting for him. So, if you are a person who believes Blade is a part of your faction based on his one post then I would ask you to double-check the message you got from your faction leader and make sure that Blade's post fits with it.

Post #98

I wont be around for another 4-5 hours...just had a second in between classes to say hello, so i shall.

Hello

Off to accounting, yay

[hoopsguy]

I can go ahead and post what I think the "cue" was that Blade included here if you want me to do so.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I think Blade went this direction, picking up on a cue from a couple of earlier posters. That is why I'm voting for him. So, if you are a person who believes Blade is a part of your faction based on his one post then I would ask you to double-check the message you got from your faction leader and make sure that Blade's post fits with it.

Post #98

Are you addressing this to me specifically, or was that a general *you*?

[Abe Sargent]

Okay, hoops, I'll follow your lead for now:

Jail Blade


I may not be on later tonight, if you'll remember, Tuesday night is DN around the Abe's Hacienda (Date Night). I need to get my vote in now.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I can go ahead and post what I think the "cue" was that Blade included here if you want me to do so.

Can I guess? Was it...the ellipses?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I can go ahead and post what I think the "cue" was that Blade included here if you want me to do so.

I would like that, yes.

[hoopsguy]

BrianD, that is a general "you" - for anyone who thinks that Blade is part of their faction, I would ask that you double-check your PM from the leader and verify that Blade is giving exactly the right information, rather than something close.

I have one person that I have identified as being part of my faction (besides the leader). I'll further validate him/her again tomorrow when the new message comes out, assuming the nature of the PM lends itself towards that.

After reviewing a couple of my posts, I wonder if some other factions might be mistaking me as one of their own as well. Just as the wolves are looking at the messages for clues, so am I. I want to know who are the other nobles so I can make a better vote today.

[hoopsguy]

Chief, Brian already posted it ... see Post #140.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

We lose the game if the assassins assume the thrown via Revolution.

Every once in awhile I hate the no-edit component of the game ... guess I have football on the mind.

I may try to incorporate an ellipsis into every post the rest of the way, just for grins. Please do not take this as a sign that I am affiliated with any faction that is using this as a signal in their posts today

[WVUFAN]

The first day is always an exercise in futility.

Again, no particular reason for this ...

JAIL SALDANA

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Chief, Brian already posted it ... see Post #140.

Did you notice that because it was part of your code, or did you just think it odd that 4 people used them early in the game?

[WVUFAN]

Oops, got two different posts screwed up there. :-)

I meant to say:

JAIL HOOPSGUY -- I was PM'in Saldana and got the nicks screwed up. :-)

[hoopsguy]

WVU, I really do not think today is an exercise in futility.

From Post #124:

I would stress that Day 1 in this format is not the throwaway that it is in most games because every noble (non-faction leader) should have a person on their trusted list. That list, by the end of the day, should likely include multiple people.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by WVUFAN

The first day is always an exercise in futility.

Again, no particular reason for this ...

JAIL SALDANA

I forget, are there negative points for voting for someone that isn't in the game?

[RealDeal]

Ok, so Hoopsguy believes that ellipses were the code for a faction, I get that.
Blade used the ellipses.
now I still don't understand the Anxiety thing.
Also, is hoops' point that Blade was using the ellipses incorrectly?
Also, why jail Blade, why not execute him if you think he is a baddie?

I'm still trying to understand everything. Because of my history with Blade, I really want to make sure I have a good reason before voting him to jail or death the first day.