WW XCIV Group Therapy - Game Over!

[Lathum]

dola- I'll add I think hoops is so keen to get me out today because he knows they can't night kill me since it will make them look pretty bad when I come back villager.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, there are three wolves in the game (hopefully two, but lets assume three). One of them is very likely to be the cunning.

Honestly, I do not care which one you are if you are in fact a wolf. I think my assumptions on your play are a little more tidy if you are the cunning wolf, but I won't beat myself up too much if you are one of the other roles.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Danny

As of 2879

2 Hoopsguy - Saldana (2842), DaddyTorgo (2879)
3 Abe - Autumn (2782), The Jackal (2853), Dubb (2854)
1 Lathum - Hoopsguy (2866)

Yet to vote Poli, Chief Rum, PackerFanatic

And me, I haven't voted.

I'll go:

vote hoopsguy

This is really just SD right now, happy to change elsewhere as the day progresses.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

dola- I'll add I think hoops is so keen to get me out today because he knows they can't night kill me since it will make them look pretty bad when I come back villager.

Wait, so you can't be lynched and you can't be night killed?

I'm not trying to "put words in your mouth" - I'm honestly stunned at what I'm reading here.

Or are you saying that your record of posts up to the point where I came after you today paints such a clear trail of evidence that the remaining villager would have no choice but to come after me with a rope?

If it is the latter, then the wolves would desperately love to night kill you in order to see that result.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

And me, I haven't voted.

I'll go:

vote hoopsguy

This is really just SD right now, happy to change elsewhere as the day progresses.

At some point I would have to play self-defense as well. Right now, I'm not looking to do it.

Does your self-defense vote change if Chief arrives and says that he trusts me? Why or why not?

[Abe Sargent]

My SD vote goes wherever it will do the most good keeping me alive. Whichever non-Abe has the most votes gets the vote unless they move off me, then I can non-SD.

If I were going to vote you because of something in thread, I'd have already done it.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Clever set up by hoops btw. I highly recommend you guys not following him, amazing he waited until there's a day I can't vote to come after me.

tbh, this is the reason i am not on you today....i thought criticizing a wolf when there were 20 votes in play was a good plan...doing it when there are only 10 is alot riskier and i dont think you would make that move.

hoops has been on my radar the whole game, much like you have (i really dont like the whole i cant be lynched claim), but the whole super in depth analysis feels like he is trying to create an overload that keeps anyone from looking at him.

i will almost certainly be gone tonight at deadline, so hopefully i chose the right master wolf candidate

[Lathum]

c'mon Hoops,

1. Do you really think I can't be night killed
2. If that was the case I couldn't say that as per the rules.

I think you know what I meant is it would draw a clear path to you.

[Poli]

It's between hoops and abe at this point for me. I don't see me voting for lathum at this point.

[Chief Rum]

Hmm, I was actually hoping to let hoops' confidence be what carries things rather than commit to anything myself, but since he is on the line right now, it seems I don't have that luxury.

I am as confident of hoops' allegiance as a villager as he is of me. He is in fact my #1 trusted player in the game.

Take that for what it's worth.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by saldana

hoops has been on my radar the whole game, much like you have (i really dont like the whole i cant be lynched claim),

I said a few posts back I can be lynched same as anyone else.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Hmm, I was actually hoping to let hoops' confidence be what carries things rather than commit to anything myself, but since he is on the line right now, it seems I don't have that luxury.

I am as confident of hoops' allegiance as a villager as he is of me. He is in fact my #1 trusted player in the game.

Take that for what it's worth.

is this based on a role or just gameplay?

[Poli]

VOTE ABE

I'll take that.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by saldana

tbh, this is the reason i am not on you today....i thought criticizing a wolf when there were 20 votes in play was a good plan...doing it when there are only 10 is alot riskier and i dont think you would make that move.

I would like hoops to address this.

[Autumn]

With Chief's vouch, I'm very confident in my list I posted earlier. I quite strongly believe that the two of them can vouch for each other. I'm not sure that Lathum is a wolf, or just a villager chasing up the wrong tree, but I feel pretty good about an Abe vote.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

With Chief's vouch, I'm very confident in my list I posted earlier. I quite strongly believe that the two of them can vouch for each other. I'm not sure that Lathum is a wolf, or just a villager chasing up the wrong tree, but I feel pretty good about an Abe vote.

I haven't chased anything, all I have done is defend myself against Hoops and it is natural for me to have elevated mistrust for him based on the fact I know I am good and he is coming at me.

[PackerFanatic]

VOTE ABE SARGENT

[Abe Sargent]

I can't do more than list facts. Anyone who thinks this is how I like to play a wolf just doesn't know me. I win as a quieter less in front wolf, so why would I change it when we have 21 players on day one? Come on now. There are numerous roles in previous games that would allow me to make the claim I made about Bk and my role. And I was right, btw.

You think I would break a tie in a close race with a wolf on the line? You are silly. I have never given up a fellow wolf like that ever. I think that is poor wolf play. I certainly wouldn't do it when I'm not around later to unvote and go elsewhere if a reason presents itself.

Here is the best reason. NO ONE can question this or doubt this. On this I am unassailable.

I would NEVER allow a Night Two kill of a player who was coming back after a very long hiatus or brand new barring them revealing as a valuable role. I would NEVER do that to a player, EVER.

If you think that I, as a wolf, would ever be party to allowing AlanT to get night killed as the first night kill in the game, then you are deluded.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

So are you willing to share some of your conclusions on the other players, other than that you think they are villagers?

There is not much that I can share. Nobody here can role reveal but I've still been able to piece together some guesses that I feel good about. I don't expect the wolves know enough to be able to fool me that well.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Here is the best reason. NO ONE can question this or doubt this. On this I am unassailable.

I would NEVER allow a Night Two kill of a player who was coming back after a very long hiatus or brand new barring them revealing as a valuable role. I would NEVER do that to a player, EVER.

If you think that I, as a wolf, would ever be party to allowing AlanT to get night killed as the first night kill in the game, then you are deluded.

I would like every player voting for me to read this real good.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by saldana

tbh, this is the reason i am not on you today....i thought criticizing a wolf when there were 20 votes in play was a good plan...doing it when there are only 10 is alot riskier and i dont think you would make that move.

hoops has been on my radar the whole game, much like you have (i really dont like the whole i cant be lynched claim), but the whole super in depth analysis feels like he is trying to create an overload that keeps anyone from looking at him.

Originally Posted by Lathum

I would like hoops to address this.

I agree it is a lot riskier. I'm not sure that I'm the right person to address it as I'm not part of the group that gets to make decisions on who to criticize.

However, I'll take a stab at it. The wolves knew that they were going to be getting the seer last night (assuming that they had the role finger MartinD the previous night). They knew that they had quite a few "good" votes on Telle yesterday and that several prominent villagers had bad votes. They knew they would not be fighting against a big COT today.

With those factors in mind, maybe they got a little overconfident? Because it was going to provide a framework to protect one of their own from casting a bad vote on a villager today, and they felt that their remaining members were in pretty good spots at the moment? After all, look at first few votes today - it was 1-1-1-1 at 11AM.

Probably the "right" answer to give here is something similar to what Lt. Colonel Nathan Jessup initially said when asked about the phone calls and letters of Private Santiago. But when it comes to posting theories, I've got a lot more "you can't handle the truth!" in me than I do "no comment". Hopefully that somewhat touches upon Saldana's other point, that I'm trying to flood people with info today. All I'm doing is reposting voting records and trying to make sense of them. It surprises me that more people do not take that approach, quite honestly.

[Lathum]

I believe you Abe, which means we are pretty screwed for today since I know I am good and CR is vouching for Hoops and likewise.

Not sure how it happened, but DT and Jackal, 2 people with poor voting records are getting no scrutiny. I think everyone needs to look that way today.

[saldana]

well...with that confirmation from chief, i guess i will go back to my original vote
unvote hoops
vote DT

[Abe Sargent]

unvote hoopsguy
\
We'll see where the day goes

[Lathum]

I don't get over confident as a wolf Hoops.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I believe you Abe, which means we are pretty screwed for today since I know I am good and CR is vouching for Hoops and likewise.

Not sure how it happened, but DT and Jackal, 2 people with poor voting records are getting no scrutiny. I think everyone needs to look that way today.

for the record, my vote was on DT almost the entire day

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by saldana

well...with that confirmation from chief, i guess i will go back to my original vote
unvote hoops
vote DT

I think this is a step in the correct direction.

If it was anyone but Abe I would think is posturing but that's not his style. And if it is a bluff it is one 4 years in the making so Bravo.

[dubb93]

Not saying it is what is happening here but some of you seem to be taking this vouching thing pretty damn far. I think it goes without saying that the wolves know each other and I don't think it is beyond the realm of posibility that wolves could be vouching for each other at this point, especially with all the vouching that has been going on lately.

[hoopsguy]

For those who want to explore MommyTorgo, why do you suppose he would have put his vote on Telle on Day 4 to make it 6-3 and help get a run on her versus Lerriuqs? Telle was pretty much in the clear, with Lerriuqs self-vote opening up a five vote lead over me and Telle being six back?

He did not have his vote down at that time. He did not put the vote on me, tightening up a race. Instead, he put it on Telle, bringing her within three votes of the leader and establishing her as the alternate option to what they believed was a villager.

You can point out that he changed the vote at the deadline (along with Dubb) but I would maintain that he did not need to put her at risk that day. The wolves were in control, and he helped to let it slip away.

Second thought - are you just assuming that a wolf missed the deadline on D1 rather than getting in a vote that would have helped his teammate under pressure?

Those are the two data points that have kept me off MT, although his overall voting record and posts feel extremely sketchy on the whole.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

I can't do more than list facts. Anyone who thinks this is how I like to play a wolf just doesn't know me. I win as a quieter less in front wolf, so why would I change it when we have 21 players on day one? Come on now. There are numerous roles in previous games that would allow me to make the claim I made about Bk and my role. And I was right, btw.

You think I would break a tie in a close race with a wolf on the line? You are silly. I have never given up a fellow wolf like that ever. I think that is poor wolf play. I certainly wouldn't do it when I'm not around later to unvote and go elsewhere if a reason presents itself.

Here is the best reason. NO ONE can question this or doubt this. On this I am unassailable.

I would NEVER allow a Night Two kill of a player who was coming back after a very long hiatus or brand new barring them revealing as a valuable role. I would NEVER do that to a player, EVER.

If you think that I, as a wolf, would ever be party to allowing AlanT to get night killed as the first night kill in the game, then you are deluded.

I can't imagine a role that would allow you to know BK was good on day one unless it was a lovers type role, which it obviously wasn't.

Who is on your distrust list then? I have to pick among mine, and if you claim not to be a wolf, who would you suggest i vote?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Not saying it is what is happening here but some of you seem to be taking this vouching thing pretty damn far. I think it goes without saying that the wolves know each other and I don't think it is beyond the realm of posibility that wolves could be vouching for each other at this point, especially with all the vouching that has been going on lately.

I considered that dubb, but lets say there is 8-3 ratio, what do they have to gain by this?

If it was closer to endgame I would be more leery of it with CR and Hoops.

[Lathum]

Hoops, why not Jackal then?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Not saying it is what is happening here but some of you seem to be taking this vouching thing pretty damn far. I think it goes without saying that the wolves know each other and I don't think it is beyond the realm of posibility that wolves could be vouching for each other at this point, especially with all the vouching that has been going on lately.

Yep, but if it really is a pair of wolves doing a cross-vouch today then you have to pretty much assume that the wolves are in do-or-die mode right now, don't you?

I think even the most conservative estimates have the count at 8-3 today - without a brutal that should leave two days at a minimum to pull this off. Three days if there is no funny business with multiple kills.

Again, everyone gets to work it out themselves if I'm part of some kind of elaborate con job with Chief Rum playing along. If you think we are, then you should vote for one of us today.

But if you think that we're actually villagers, then why is everyone else moving to an alternate candidate in Abe? I've definitely been worried about how easily the vote has moved to Abe without really sniffing Lathum (or anyone else, frankly).

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I can't imagine a role that would allow you to know BK was good on day one unless it was a lovers type role, which it obviously wasn't.

Who is on your distrust list then? I have to pick among mine, and if you claim not to be a wolf, who would you suggest i vote?

I'll give you one role that could, and it's not mine, so I mention it now.

Soothsayer.

Mine is something else, but that is a good example of a role that can get you that info on Day One.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Hoops, why not Jackal then?

I can't believe a wolf would be caught at this point in the game without one good vote, especially when yesterday represented such a fertile opportunity for them to get in a good vote.

Bottom line, I can make up cases in either direction for just about everyone left. It is what happens when you are borderline obsessive with winning an online game, I guess.

[Autumn]

Updated vote count?

[hoopsguy]

Hoops - MT (2878)
Abe - Autumn (2782), Jackal (2853), Dubb (2854), Poli (2913), PF (2917)
Lathum - Hoops (2866)
DT - Saldana (2923)

2713 Autumn votes Jackal 1-0
2726 Hoops votes Jackal 2-0
2731 Jackal votes Hoops 2-1
2758 Hoops unvotes Jackal 1-1
2759 Saldana votes MT 1-1-1
2766 Dubb votes Chief 1-1-1-1
2767 Autumn unvotes Jackal, votes Chief 2-1-1 Chief over Hoops/MT
2782 Autumn unvotes Chief, votes Abe 1-1-1-1 Hoops/MT/Chief/Abe
2784 Dubb unvotes Chief 1-1-1 Hoops/MT/Abe
2792 Jackal unvotes Hoops 1-1 MT/Abe
2842 Saldana unvotes MT, votes Hoops 1-1 Abe/Hoops
2853 Jackal votes Abe 2-1 Abe over Hoops
2854 Dubb votes Abe 3-1 Abe over Hoops
2866 Hoops votes Lathum 3-1-1 Abe over Hoops over Lathum
2878 MT votes Hoops 3-2-1 Abe over Hoops over Lathum
2903 Abe votes Hoops 3-3-1 Abe over Hoops over Lathum
2913 Poli votes Abe 4-3-1 Abe over Hoops over Lathum
2917 PF votes Abe 5-3-1 Abe over Hoops over Lathum
2923 Saldana unvotes Hoops, votes MT 5-2-1-1 Abe over Hoops over Lathum/MT
2924 Abe unvotes Hoops 5-1-1-1 Abe over Lathum/MT/Hoops

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

I'll give you one role that could, and it's not mine, so I mention it now.

Soothsayer.

Mine is something else, but that is a good example of a role that can get you that info on Day One.

In all honesty that is the only role I was thinking of that could have gotten you that information. With you claiming to NOT have that role there is no way I move from you now.

My best guess now places that role elsewhere.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think this is a step in the correct direction.

If it was anyone but Abe I would think is posturing but that's not his style. And if it is a bluff it is one 4 years in the making so Bravo.

I 100% agree with this part.

[Autumn]

Hoops, I agree that I don't like how easy the vote is switching over to Abe. All my other suspects are joining me there. Not good.

Let me add another of my suspects to the vote list, since I am not planning on voting Lathum, Hoops or DT.

VOTE DUBB93

[Autumn]

oops

UNVOTE ABE
VOTE DUBB93

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Hoops, I agree that I don't like how easy the vote is switching over to Abe. All my other suspects are joining me there. Not good.

Let me add another of my suspects to the vote list, since I am not planning on voting Lathum, Hoops or DT.

VOTE DUBB93

Did you unvote Abe?

[Lathum]

OK, my brain is fried from school and I am still in this class for 50 minutes

[hoopsguy]

Well, we have 8 of the remaining 11 players around right now so hopefully we can get in some good discussion before everyone scatters. Including me, as I have to take my daughter to her two-year doctor visit this afternoon. So you've got me around to question for a little more than an hour at this point.

[Abe Sargent]

Having made my claim, for the record, if there is a conversion in this game, and you wolves convert me, I will do what I can to win for you in this game, because that is the rule, but I will be very upset with you afterwards.

I'm just letting you know now.

[hoopsguy]

Danny has already said that there is no conversion in this game.

[Autumn]

I would love to hear something from my suspects. Lathum, we hear from a lot ;-) Abe has just spoken. PF, Poli and Dubb, beyond voting records, what can you offer that you have contributed to the village that can sway me?

[Abe Sargent]

Well, good to know. Now I won't have to get really pissed off at someone. Normally I don;t care, but I would here.

[Abe Sargent]

Alright, you guys are going to laugh, but I have an engagement with some fellow staff to get some dinner and play volleyball. I expect to be back prior to 8, but I will be out for a bit. Just letting you know.

[Abe Sargent]

In the meantime, just in case I do not get back, (and I expect to):

vote dubb