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Old 03-12-2012, 10:22 AM   #351
larrymcg421
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Ugh!
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Old 03-12-2012, 10:29 AM   #352
Coffee Warlord
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Dammit.
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Old 03-12-2012, 03:14 PM   #353
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Breeze View Post
fatigue will factor in the second day, just like in the first day, but with the Pole Vault (the biggest swing event for fatigue - like high jump was in the first day) being the next event, it is unlikely you will hit fatigue before the pole vault ends, rather it will impact you more on the javelin and then it can significantly impact your 1500. So yes, saving throws can be beneficial in the long run - espcially if you character had low endurance numbers when you created them.

okay, if (and only if) it will help my fatigue levels in future events today then I'll pass my 3rd attempt here.
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Old 03-12-2012, 07:32 PM   #354
ntndeacon
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dagnab it!
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Old 03-12-2012, 08:37 PM   #355
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Damn, a good finish, but a big toss could have stolen the event and really helped out there.
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Old 03-12-2012, 09:33 PM   #356
ntndeacon
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I knew I shouldnt have had that 3rd toss
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Old 03-13-2012, 06:23 AM   #357
Breeze
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Event 7 - Discus - Leaderboard (3rd Attempt)

Code:
Babson - 167 Gunderson - 163 McCloud - 161 Rambis - 159 Llyw - 154 Bafou - 154 Justice - 153 Gonzalez - 153 Nielsen - 153 Ashkayev - 151 Ginsberg - 148 McGillicuddy - 142
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Old 03-13-2012, 07:23 AM   #358
Breeze
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Event 7 - Discus - Points

Code:
Babson - 890 Gunderson - 865 McCloud - 853 Rambis - 841 Llyw - 811 Bafou - 811 Justice - 805 Gonzalez - 805 Nielsen - 805 Ashkayev - 793 Ginsberg - 775 McGillicuddy - 739
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Old 03-13-2012, 07:29 AM   #359
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*visits ntn in da hospital along with Kenny Testa*
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Old 03-13-2012, 07:35 AM   #360
Breeze
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Overall Standings (after 7 events)

Code:
Babson - 6357 McCloud - 6262 Llyw - 6228 Nielsen - 6221 Ginsberg - 6200 Rambus - 6189 Bafou - 6121 McGillicuddy - 6078 Gunderson - 6068 Gonzalez - 6028 Justice - 6026 Ashkayev - 6001

Last edited by Breeze : 03-13-2012 at 07:35 AM.
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Old 03-13-2012, 08:00 AM   #361
Breeze
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Event 8 - Pole Vault - Card Preview

The Pole Vault works like the high jump, in that that you will decide a starting height and increase your jump heights from there (no going backwards). Once you've missed 3 times in a row you are out. There is no rule that states you must clear a heigt to move up...and the base number of jumps allowed before fatigue sets in is 7 (but characters created with low endurance my begin to see an impact before the event ends, or will see an impact in the javelin if they don't conserve energy).

Another important note...this event will be much more difficult to explain the card columns. The spread of potential results in this event is significant with potentially 5' differences from best to worst outcomes, and all numbers in between...therefore determining most likely results will be a best guess scenario...



Babson
Best height is 17' and there are two, but they are in nice spots - 36 and 32. Low is 14' 4" and there are 4 of them, but 2 of the 4 are in the teens and the other two are on 28 and 29. Most of the 30s is filled with results of 15'8" or better, and the mid 20s is the same way. Most likely result 16'


Ginsberg
High is a 16' 4"...and I count 5, on 11, 16, 26, 29, 39. Low end is 14' but only 2 and one is the roll of 19...Most common results appear to be between 15' and 15'8...but there are a few 16' results sprinkled in...


Nielsen
One of the favorites in this event, Nielsen has a top end result of 17' 8" on 25 and 22, with a 17' 4" result on 14. There are also quite a few 17' includes really nice ones on 33, 34, 37, and 24...The low is 14' 4" on the 12. After that I see 2 14' 8" on low probability outcomes..then results jump in the 15' 4" or better area. Most likely roll will be 16' 8" or 17'.


McCloud
Best result is 16' 4" on 22, 26, 16. Low is a 13' 8" result on 38 and 28. Most of the results are around 15' with enough 15'4" and 15'8" results to make me think he'll end up around 15' 4"


Llyw
Bad news and good news here....the good news is the high end is 17', the bad news is there is only 1 of them, the pretty good news is it is sitting on a roll of 36, so pretty high probability...low end is a 14' 4", but again just 1 on the 28. Most of the column is around a 15' 8" and the high probability rolls in the 30s are mostly over 16'...so should end up somewhere between 16' and 16' 4"


Rambis
The best result on the card is 16', but only 1...on the 24. Teh low end is 13'...in all I count 7 results that are sub-14'...most of the high probability results are in the upper 14s to lower 15s so a 15' to 15' 8" result isn't out of the question...most likely result is 15'


Justice
With Nielsen, the other event favorite has a top end result of 17' 8"...and he has 4 on 13, 22, 25, and 33...the ones on 25 and 33 are very promising. I count 4 other results of 17' or better. Low end is 14' 8" on a roll of 20. Most of the results are 15' 8" or better but the 15' 4" result on 36 is a concern. Most likely result 16' 8" but could get over 17'


Bafou
16' is the best and only 1 is possible on a 32. low is 13', but it is on the 11...I count 6 more results under 14'...the 30s is mostly 15' or better, but there is the poor 14'4" on 38 that is disturbing. Most likely result 15' or 15' 4"


McGillicuddy
16' 4" is the best...5 of them...14, 22, 26, 29, 39...Several others of 16'. Low end is 13' 8" but I only see 1 on the 17...Most likely result will be around 15'


Ashkayev
Best result is 16' and there are a couple - 32 and 24. Low is 13' 4" and there are 2 rolls in the mid teens with that result. There are afew other results that are sub 14'. Most of the results appear to be around 14' 8" or 15'


Gunderson
16' 4" results are the best...but there are 6 of them...11, 16, 22, 26, 27, 29...Lows are 13' 8" but I only see 1 on the 20. Most results are above 15' and the most likely result is proabably 15' 4"


Gonzalez
also a best of 16' 4"...5 of them...14, 16, 18, 27, 39...(not in great spots)...worst is 13' 8" on 11 and 20...got a could of 14' 8" results on 36 and 38 that I don't like, and there are some other poor rsults in the low 20s and teens. The most common outcome is probably 14' 8" or better and I'd suspect the most likely oucome is 15'

Last edited by Breeze : 03-13-2012 at 08:02 AM.
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Old 03-13-2012, 08:19 AM   #362
Breeze
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As before with High Jump, if you aren't comfortable with your write up or you have questions just ask. Also if you'd like we can go through this on PM or some other method...if you want to go through this as a group so you know how and what your competitors are doing we can do it in the thread but it will take a while...
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Old 03-13-2012, 10:45 AM   #363
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your leader in the clubhouse...is well - finished and in the clubhouse....
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Old 03-13-2012, 11:21 AM   #364
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quick note...the pole vault heights increase in 4" intervals
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Old 03-13-2012, 11:31 AM   #365
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Ginsberg finished now as well
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Old 03-13-2012, 02:41 PM   #366
Breeze
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hey guys,

saw many of you PMed me. I got pulled away this afternoon and will be out of the office tomorrow...so I'll follow up with you on the vault on Thursday...
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Old 03-15-2012, 06:48 AM   #367
Breeze
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ok, everyone that PMed me has been responded too...

I have 2 that I have not heard from

- McCloud
- Gonzalez

the rest have at least started...
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Old 03-15-2012, 12:31 PM   #368
Breeze
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Here is where we stand

Finished

Babson
Ginsberg
Nielsen
Llyw
Rambis
Bafou
Ashkayev
Gunderson

In Progress

McCloud
Justice
McGillicuddy

Waiting On

Gonzalez
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Old 03-15-2012, 11:29 PM   #369
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Sorry, swamped at work this week.
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Old 03-16-2012, 06:41 AM   #370
Breeze
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kingfc22 View Post
Sorry, swamped at work this week.

no problem...this isn't time sensative
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Old 03-16-2012, 08:24 AM   #371
Breeze
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Event Update

Everyone is finished except Gonzalez who has started now...
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Old 03-16-2012, 09:36 AM   #372
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I'm guessing others may have had more complicated orders than Babson.
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Old 03-16-2012, 11:03 AM   #373
Breeze
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Originally Posted by JAG View Post
I'm guessing others may have had more complicated orders than Babson.

yeah...just a bit more complicated...
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Old 03-19-2012, 10:51 AM   #374
Breeze
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Everybody is finished...so I just need to get some time to type up the results...
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Old 03-19-2012, 11:08 AM   #375
Breeze
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Event 8 - Pole Vault

14' 4"

Bafou - is the contestent that Opens this event, electing to do his first attempt at this height looking to get on the board. He sprints down the runway, plants the pole, lifts off. He seems unbalanced a bit, but that isn't unusual for Bafou...he ends up kicking the bar on the way over...wait a second...as he is climbing out of the pit he has his hands on his lower back...that doesn't look good...

---------------------------------------
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Old 03-19-2012, 11:23 AM   #376
Breeze
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Event 8 - Pole Vault

14' 4"

Bafou - we have confirmed the Bafou needed treatment following his first attempt. It appears he has strained something in his lower back, which is causing some spasms...but he his back before the default time on this height and he is ready for his second attempt...He looks good and he clears the height...
---------------------------------------

14' 8"

Rambis - Clears easily

Bafou - Misses again, and you have to wonder how much the injury is bothering him...

McGillicuddy - Clears easily

Ashkayev - Dealing with his own injury issues, is able to get over the bar on his first attempt

Gonzalez - Gets over the bar

Bafou - In his second attempt, Bafou is able to clear the height...

-------------------------------

15'

McCloud - elects to enter with his first attempt and he makes it over the bar

Rambis - Misses badly...something was off there...

Bafou - Looks strong on this attempt and clears...

McGillicuddy - Clears easily again

Ashkayev - Also over the bar on 1st try at this height

Gunderson - Jump into the competition and clears his first try...

Gonzalez - Sails over the bar

Rambis - second attempt at this height...also looks bad and he is all over the bar, knocking it off early....

Rambis - Final attempt for Rambis...if he misses he'll record an extremely poor height of 14' 8", finish last in this event and all but write off any chance of getting on the medal stand...he runs up, plants, lifts and looks better...he just over the bar...with almost no room to spare...

----------------------------------
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Old 03-19-2012, 11:49 AM   #377
Breeze
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Event 8 - Pole Vault


--------------------------------------
15' 4"

Ginsberg - takes his first attempt and it is so bad he goes under the bar and never even dislodges it...

McCloud - His 2nd jump is no good

Rambis - off of his scare at 15'...he goes for 15' 4" and he doesn't get it...man Rambis is struggling in this event right now...

Bafou - clears the bar, so after his rough start he's now cleared 3 straight jumps...

McGillicuddy - Clear it easily yet again...and he's looking good right now...

Ashkayev - misses his first go at 15' 4"

Gunderson - follows Ashkayev's miss with one of his own

Gonzalez - clears on attempt...

---------------------------------------

15' 4" - 2nd attempt


Ginsberg - his second attempt is worse than the first...he completely bails on it early and again goes under the bar...now the pressure is really on. Ginsberg has creeped up into medal contention and now he is staring at a potential meet ending 0 in this event if he fails one more time...

McCloud - recovers from his earlier miss to get over the bar...

Rambis - Once again he puts himself in pressure situation as he misses his second attempt. All the misses have to be adding up on his stamina as well...

Ashkayev - Joins Ginsberg and Rambis in a make or break jump with his miss on the second try at 15' 4"

Gunderson - adds his name to list of competitors on the verge of elimination from the event...as he also misses...


------------------------------------------
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Old 03-19-2012, 01:05 PM   #378
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------------------------------------------


15' 4" - 3rd attempt


Ginsberg - the athlete with the biggest pressure on his shoulders goes first. A miss here and Ginsberg is for all purposes eliminated, and his 1st two attempts were extremely poor...he goes for the 3rd...sprints, plants, lifts, and he clips the bar on the way over...it bounces, wobbles...he stares at it hard all the way into the pit...the bar continues to dance on the platform, but doesn't fall...In game mechanics he cleared the jump on the number...

Rambis - For the second time Rambis faces a make it or break it jump...and for the second time he clears it...

Ashkayev - Sails over the bar...

Gunderson - makes it easily...

So all 4 facing the end of the event, come up big when they need it...


------------------------------------------
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Old 03-19-2012, 01:13 PM   #379
Breeze
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15' 8" - 1st attempt


Ginsberg - starts off this height poorly with a miss...

McCloud - makes is on his first try...as he heads back to his seat, he's looking pretty tired at this point...

Llwy - Steps in for his first jump and it is a miss...

Rambis - misses again...out of 8 jumps he's missed 5 times. He gets out of the pit with a very frustrated look on his face.

Bafou - Clears the bar, but as he's getting out of the pit, he is again rubbing his lower back and trying to stretch it out...it will be interesting to see if he goes for the next height...

McGillicuddy - makes it easily...

Ashkayev - misses...

Gonzalez - also misses...

Last edited by Breeze : 03-19-2012 at 01:14 PM.
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Old 03-19-2012, 01:20 PM   #380
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15' 8" - 2nd attempt


Ginsberg - clears his second attempt...this one looked much better...

Llwy - clears on his 2nd jump at this height and 2nd jump of the competition

Rambis - elects to pass at this point, not sure if he'll try another height or if he is finished in this event, we'll have to wait and see...

Ashkayev - misses again. He says something to the official as he's walking away...looks like he has asked for a trainer to tend to his injury...

Gonzalez - Clears on the 2nd attempt...



-----------------------------------------


15' 8" - 3rd attempt


Ashkayev - passes this attempt - thus closing out the 15' 8" height...
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Old 03-19-2012, 01:26 PM   #381
Breeze
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16'- 1st attempt

-------------------------------------------------

The 16' height opens with the following announcements...

Rambis has elected to retire from this event - height cleared - 15' 4"

Askayev, due to injury, will also retire from this event - height cleared - 15' 4"

McCloud has elected to retire from this event - height recorded - 15' 8"

Bafou, due to injury, will retire from this event - height recorded - 15' 8"


--------------------------------------------------
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Old 03-19-2012, 02:16 PM   #382
Breeze
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16'- 1st attempt


Babson - the Overall leader steps up to the line for his first attempt...he sprints down the runway, plants the pole, and seriously launches himself over the bar. He would have been good from 17'...he pumps his fist, and he has a big smile on his face as he heads back to his seat....wait he didn't stop at his seat...he's continuing to walk. I can't believe he hurt himself based on his expressions following the jump...but he's headed straight to the lockerroom. He stops Just before going in, he turns and solutes to the crowd...and I'm not sure but it sounded like he wished the rest of the competitors, "Good Luck..." Looks like that'll be all for Babson in this event...he's going to stand pat...

Llyw - fails to clear on 1st try...

Justice - One of the event favorites steps up for his first try, and he clears 16'...

McGillicuddy - fails to clear...

Gunderson - misses

Gonzalez - misses
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Old 03-19-2012, 02:25 PM   #383
Breeze
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-------------------------------------------------


16'- 2nd attempt


Llyw - clears on the bar on the second go round...

McGillicuddy - misses again...down to 1 jump to stay in...

Gunderson - clears this time

Gonzalez - fails to clear - also down to 1 jump

------------------------------------------------

16'- 3rd attempt


McGillicuddy - misses again

Gonzalez - grazes the bar, but is wobbles off the platform...

McGillicuddy ends event with a height of 15' 8"

Gonzalez ends event with a height of 15' 8"
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Old 03-19-2012, 02:43 PM   #384
Breeze
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16' 4"- 1st attempt

---------------------------------------------------

We have confirmed from our sources that Babson is not injured, simply satisfied with his result. He's planning to conserve energy so he'll be able to at least finish the 1500...

---------------------------------------------------

Ginsberg - Gets back into the competition after sitting out the 16' height. He gives this height a go, and he's into the bar on the way up...

Llyw - This time he clears on the first attempt...

Justice - Makes it look easy...

Gunderson - Miss..and he walks off shaking his head...maybe he has some fatigue concerns at this point...he'll have a decision to make if that is the case...
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Old 03-19-2012, 02:46 PM   #385
Breeze
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16' 4"- 2nd attempt

---------------------------------------------------


Ginsberg - misses again, and again he isn't terribly close...

Gunderson - waves off the attempt...

Gunderson finishes with a height of 16'

---------------------------------------------------

16' 4"- 3rd attempt

---------------------------------------------------


Ginsberg - can't clear it on his final go, and he's done in this event...

Ginsberg finishes with a height of 15' 8"

Babson retires with a height of 16'

Last edited by Breeze : 03-20-2012 at 07:58 AM.
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Old 03-19-2012, 02:55 PM   #386
Breeze
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16' 8"- 1st attempt

---------------------------------------------------

Nielsen - The other event favorite finally steps up for his first attempt...and it isn't a very good one. as he is a little late with the pull and he gets too close to the bar...

Llyw - misses, just barely, as arm hits the pole when he attempts to push the bar away...

Justice - misses...

---------------------------------------------------

16' 8"- 2nd attempt

---------------------------------------------------

Nielsen - Better jump, but he clips the bar with his chest and knocks it off. Now he faces the same situation Ginsberg faced much earlier in the competition. A failure on the next attempt and he's out of the competition

Llyw - misses again...

Justice - also misses....

-------------------------------------------------

Heading into the 3rd attempt...Nielsen is in real trouble, if Justice has to settle for a height of 16' 4" it will be a disappointment given his track record in this event, and Llyw would like to get this height to further close on the overall leader Babson. And Babson, if all 3 miss is sitting really pretty with no one clearing 8" more than he did in his single attempt
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Old 03-19-2012, 03:07 PM   #387
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Originally Posted by Breeze View Post
16' 4"- 2nd attempt

---------------------------------------------------


Ginsberg - misses again, and again he isn't terribly close...

Gunderson - waves off the attempt...

Gunderson finishes with a height of 16'

---------------------------------------------------

16' 4"- 3rd attempt

---------------------------------------------------


Ginsberg - can't clear it on his final go, and he's done in this event...

Gunderson finishes with a height of 15' 8"

Babson retires with a height of 16'

Wait now, GUnderson finished at 16'
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Old 03-19-2012, 07:48 PM   #388
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He meant Ginsberg there, methinks.
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Old 03-19-2012, 09:17 PM   #389
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Nice. And here I thought I'd be way down in this event.
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Old 03-20-2012, 07:41 AM   #390
Breeze
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Event 8 - Pole Vault - Current Standings

Ok, I'm managed to screw up my write up again...Here is where everyone stands...

Still Jumping

Nielsen
Llyw
Justice

Finished

Code:
Babson - 16' Gunderson - 16' Ginsberg - 15' 8" McCloud - 15' 8" Bafou - 15' 8" McGillicuddy - 15' 8" Gonzalez - 15' 8" Rambis - 15' 4" Ashkayev - 15' 4"

Sorry for any confusion...
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Old 03-20-2012, 07:55 AM   #391
Breeze
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16' 8"- 3rd attempt

---------------------------------------------------

Nielsen - finally puts together his explosiveness and technique and clears the height with room to spare

Llyw - elects to pass on his final attempt...feeling his odds of clearing weren't good and he wanted to guard against over exertion

Justice - he's been in this situation a bunch already during the meet...facing a crucial attempt, and he's come through well in the past...he give his final attempt at this height a go - and he clears it easily...that might have been good with the bar at 18'...


Llyw finishes with a height of 16' 4"
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Old 03-20-2012, 07:59 AM   #392
Breeze
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PilotMan View Post
Wait now, GUnderson finished at 16'

yeah...BritRock nailed it...should have been Ginsberg...I fixed it in the original post and I added an updated standings...
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Old 03-20-2012, 11:31 AM   #393
Breeze
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---------------------------------------------------

17'- 1st Attempt

---------------------------------------------------

Nielsen - Misses at 17'...


Justice - Misses at 17'...

---------------------------------------------------

17'- 2nd Attempt

---------------------------------------------------

Nielsen - passes...he told the field reporter he only feels he has 1 more jump in him and he's going to attempt to match his personal best of 17' 8"


Justice - Clears 17'....with a beautiful attempt that might have been good at 18'


---------------------------------------------------

17 4"- 2nd Attempt

---------------------------------------------------

Nielsen - passes


Justice - Another beautiful attempt allows him to clear the height...and he elects to sit on a recorded height of 17' 4"...

Justice records a height of 17' 4"



---------------------------------------------------

17 8"- 1st Attempt

---------------------------------------------------

Nielsen - fails to clear and he informs officials that he is now finished...

Justice - had he elected 1 more jump at his max of 17' 8" he would have cleared

Nielsen records a height of 17'
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Old 03-20-2012, 11:43 AM   #394
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Event 8 - Pole Vault - Official Results


Code:
Justice - 17' 4" Nielsen - 17' Llyw - 16' 4" Babson - 16' Gunderson - 16' Ginsberg - 15' 8" McCloud - 15' 8" Bafou - 15' 8" McGillicuddy - 15' 8" Gonzalez - 15' 8" Rambis - 15' 4" Ashkayev - 15' 4"
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Old 03-20-2012, 11:47 AM   #395
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Event 8 - Pole Vault - Event Points


Code:
Justice - 1001 Nielsen - 938 Llyw - 907 Babson - 877 Gunderson - 877 Ginsberg - 846 McCloud - 846 Bafou - 846 McGillicuddy - 846 Gonzalez - 846 Rambis - 816 Ashkayev - 816
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Old 03-20-2012, 11:56 AM   #396
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Overall Standings - After 8 Events


Code:
Babson - 7234 Nielsen - 7159 Llyw - 7135 McCloud - 7108 Ginsberg - 7046 Justice - 7027 Rambis - 7005 Bafou - 6967 Gunderson - 6945 McGillicuddy - 6924 Gonzalez - 6874 Ashkayev - 6817
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Old 03-20-2012, 01:35 PM   #397
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Event 9 - Javelin

Javelin works just like the long jump, shot put and discus. Each athlete will be given up to 3 attempts and will need to annouce if they plan to attempt them conservatively, average, or allout. Card breakdowns coming shortly...
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Old 03-21-2012, 06:44 AM   #398
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Event 9 - Javelin - Card Breakdowns


Babson - Needs to open his lead hear, because the 1500 will be brutal for him...
Safe
- low result looks like a 168 on the 25...but everything else appears to be over 180, with a high of 222. In all 15 results are greater than 200...most likely outcome is in the upper 180s to mid 190s
Average - high looks to be 232...which isn't much of an improvement over the high in the conservative column, but the odds of getting a roll of 222 or better are actually pretty good. I count 13 results over 222 in this column, and not a single successful result under 200...mostly likely looks like a low 220
All Out - Best result is 237, also have a couple 235s...and a couple more 233s. Low is a 200 exactly...

Ginsberg - is poor in this event, needs to stay close to leaders for his strong 1500 skills to matter...
Safe
- a couple of 145s and 146s are ugly outcomes...could get as high as a 201 but it isn't likely sitting on a roll of 12. Most likely upper 170s to low 180s
Average - Better results here including a handfull over 200...with a nice 203 on a roll of 36. High is a 214, low ends look to be around low 170s. Most likley still looks to be in the 170s, but many more better results in this column than the safe one...
All Out - 219 on 28, 214 on 23, 219 on 17...and a bunch of 190 outcomes in the lower probability rolls...mixed in with a few 170s and low 180 outcomes...

Nielsen - With some luck here he could greatly increase the likelihood of getting on the podium and might close the gap on Babson further...
Safe
- 10 results over 200...with 218 in the midteens as the high...does ahve a 216 on 31...low is in the 160s, but it only looks like there is 1 and the rest are mid 170s or higher...most likely - upper 170s to low 180s
Average - a few results under 200, but most are mid 210s with a few in the upper 210s with a couple of 220s, including 2 real nice ones on 36 and 37...most likely result (tempting to say 220 based on the previously mentioned spots, but I'll say upper to mid 210s)
All Out - 4 results greater than 220...high is a 236 but on 11...low is a 182...the poor results aren't as prevelent in this column as usual, but there are still quite a few in the low 200s...but I only count 4 results under 200 here...

McCloud - an event favorite who needs a good result and has a pretty good card...
Safe
- high is 223 on a very attainable roll of 24. low looks like a 178...12 result over 200...most likley result 190s...
Average - not a single result under 200...got a very nice 232 (column high) on 36, and a couple of others in the teens...most likely result is mid 210s, but serveral above 220 are available
All Out - No results under 200...most are in the mid 210s...but 6 results are over 230...

Llyw - A good card, but not a dominating card, will need to roll one of the better results to move up, but shouldn't do poorly either...
Safe
- 9 results over 200..including 4 nices ones running between 28 and 31...which also includes two of the column high 216 rolls. Low is a 164. Most likely result is in the low to mid 190s
Average - High is a 27 in the mid teens. Most of the resutls are greater than 200, with only 4 being under that figure. Most likley results are around 205 or in the upper 210s.
All Out - high is a 235 on 23 which is nice. Also have a 225 on 29, and a couple other 220+ results in the teens. The low end of the column is 201...

Rambis - another event favorite, based on his current standing, strenght in this event, and the ability to be pretty good in the 1500 - he's hoping for a strong finish so he can slip onto the podium...but it has to start here...
Safe
14 results over 200...with a very nice 214 on 34...low is 170 on the 27. Most likly outcome is in the low 190s.
Average - enitre colum is over 200...most of it over 210...high is 232, but it is on 29. 3 of the 6 successful results in the 30s are over 220. Most likely low 220s...
All Out - nothing under 200..5 results over 230...with a high of 238 on the 23...a 232 on the 28 is nice too...

Justice - coming off the best result in the pole vault...looking to continue the momentum, but this is one of the hardest cards to evaluate...not because results are bad, just balanced between only pretty good and real good results...
Safe
- Got results in the 170s, 4 of them for the low. High is 216 in the teens. Most likely result is in the low 190s
Average - here is where things are tough to call...equal spread of results in the upper 200s and mid 210s...doesn't sound like a big spread but can be significant in event standings. Also a few 220 results and sub 200 results just to keep things interesting...most likely - mid 210s.
All Out - 5 results over 220, with a 219 as well...only a couple results under 200...and server in mixed in between 200 and 216...

Bafou - With the injury in the previous event, Bafou will be forced to do all attempts conservatively (default game rule)...this will further hamstring his chances of making any progress in this event...
Safe
- for a conservative column created from a D grade in the event, Bafou actually has a decent column. Low is a 173, high is 209...most of the mid 30 rolls are upper 180s to mid 190s and thus the most likely outcome...

McGillicuddy - along with Ginsberg, one of the event underdogs...not much of a chance of moving up in this event...
Safe
- low is a 145 and there are a few of them...the most alarming thing is a terrible 162 on 34 and a worse 159 on 35. These are surrounded by results in the mid 170s as well. I only count 2 results over 200..most likely result is mid 170s.
Average - do have few results over 200, with a high of 215 (roll of 15 needed). does have a 204 on 36...low end is still low 170s. Most likely is hard to call but I'll say around 200...because a few are spinkled in the 20s, plus the one on 36...
All Out - can get a 220 with a lucky roll of 11...only 2 other result over 200...low is in the mid 170s...most likely is in the 190s...

Ashkayev - Like Bafou...will be limited to conservative attempts due to injury, all but ensuring he'll end up in the cellar, unless he gets some fortune rolls from here on out...
Safe
- For a safe column it isn't bad with 9 results over 200 feet. High is a 214...on 25 and 19. most of the 30s are in the upper 180s, and with additional similar distances spread around the rest of the column, that's going to be the most likely result.

Gunderson - another event favorite...
Safe
- got a 222 on a roll of 13 for a high, and a low of 177...there are quite a few results over 200 but judging from the high probability outcomes the most likely result will be in the lower 180s or upper 190s...
Average - Strong column here...with bid rolls in the 30s, including a 221 on 31, and a 232 (column high) on 36. 1 result under 200, a 197 on the 30...A bunch of results in th mid 220s so that is probably the most likely outcome
b]All Out[/b] - 238 on 23 is the max...no results under 200...6 results in the 230s, but none in the 220s...rest about equally spread between the 210s and 200s...

Gonzalez - not a strong competitor in this event but first glance it appears he got a lucky break during card creation...
Safe
- surprisingly there are quite a few results over 200...with a high of 214 appears on the 19 & 25...low is 173...with aabout 5 other results in the 170s. Most of the card, including the high probability rolls in the 30s are in the upper 180s and lower 190s so that is the most likely result.
Average - Very similary to the conservative column, but the low end comes up into the upper 180s and the number of 200+ results increases a bit. High is 224, but it is on 16. There are some 200+ outcomes on higher probability rolls like the 211 on teh 36 and the 213 on the 25...most likely result will be around a 210...
All Out - got a 237 on the 13...but most of the column is just over 200...low is a 192...most likely around a 205...

Last edited by Breeze : 03-21-2012 at 10:08 AM.
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Old 03-21-2012, 06:55 AM   #399
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Report in with your style of attempt when ready...
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Old 03-21-2012, 07:09 AM   #400
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