Arbitrage opportunities in the Election Prediction Markets

[Toddzilla]

I just read a dandy article about the differences between sites that predict the election (ala 538) which mentioned the disconnect between them and the prediction markets (Predictit.org).

For example, prediction sites have Biden with a 51% chance to win Florida while the markets have Trump as the favorite ($.51). More illustrative may be the difference between the chances prediction sites give Trump to win outright (1% - 10%) and the prices in the markets ($.42).

So I am now mulling over whether it would be profitable to put a chunk of money into market and take advantage of a seemingly ridiculously low price for Biden to win at $.58 given the prediction sites say it ought to be more like $.90

This can be gamed out to scenarios where Trump is given a non-zero chance to win DC by the market when we know in reality it is exactly and undeniably zero - the catch here is you're betting 99 cents to win a dollar so the return is less than optimal.

I'd love to hear the FOFC groupthink

[Toddzilla]

I should point out that Biden winning DC is actually $.95, so there's a nickel to be had were I to wager the 95 cents.

[Butter]

On Bovada there is the ability to bet on Biden/Trump to win x number of the 10 "battleground states".

Assuming you don't think there's going to be a sweep (which I don't), the best odds are +500 and the worst are at +950. Not arbitrage exactly, but if you discount the extreme scenarios, could be an opportunity.

[Butter]

As for what you're talking about, it sounds like getting into "bet 1000 to win 10" type of territory.

I guess if it's an absolute guarantee, great. But what if they void one side of the bet for some reason. There's always risk.

[QuikSand]

Keep in mind, there's a 5% rake (fee) on withdrawals from the PredictIt site. So, if you have a money-making scheme, it needs to overcome that, and also go deep enough at current prices to merit the time and attention.

Most of the opportunities I have found there fail one or both tests.

I play around on PredictIt quite a bit, but am only interested in fairly broad-margin plays. Right now the "best" mismatch market I'm in is in NC, where 538 says 65% blue, and PredictIt says 54% red. But the betting markets are leaning red more than just about any polls-only source.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Toddzilla

I should point out that Biden winning DC is actually $.95, so there's a nickel to be had were I to wager the 95 cents.

My guess is most sites have limits where you won't make an amount worth it.

[Butter]

Went for 3 bets. Dems to win by 30-59 EVs (+1800) or 60-99 EVs (+1500).

And Dems to win N. Carolina, +130.

[jbergey22]

At different times Ive invested in...

Biden -144
Biden by 100-149EVs+525
Popular Vote Dems by 6.0-7.5 +669
Biden to win Fla +133
Fla smallest margin of victory +733
North Carolina small margin of victory +733
Biden to win North Carolina +104
Democrats Clean Sweep +100
'Tipping Point' Florida +525
House Seats won by Dems 234-237 +669
Trump wins any state he lost in 2016(No) -156
Iowa Senate smallest Margin of Victory +614
Ernst to win Iowa Senate +133
Daines to win Montana Senate +156

Markets on Predict It.....

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Lathum

My guess is most sites have limits where you won't make an amount worth it.

You offer just has to be matched on Predict It...Its not a normal sportsbook...Its like matchbook

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Butter

Went for 3 bets. Dems to win by 30-59 EVs (+1800) or 60-99 EVs (+1500).

And Dems to win N. Carolina, +130.

Fantastic Odds....Was that on PredictIt?

[Butter]

Bovada. Sadly a $10 limit

[Butter]

They now have O/U on EVs... 310.5 is the mark for Biden, and Under is slightly favored.

128.5 for Trump and the over is -700. That's an odd mark to set.

Also the odds for Biden have gone from -155 at its lowest the last few days to -190 today.

[larrymcg421]

I have:

Biden wins popular vote by more than 10.5% (.19)
Biden wins Florida (.42)
Biden wins NC (.50)
Biden wins PA (.58)
Biden wins IA (.30)

I could've waited longer on Iowa and got a much better price, but I have a better price than the 538 odds in each market.

[Lathum]

Last I saw Biden was -220 on Betonline

[Butter]

It's up to -210 on Bovada

[QuikSand]

Overall, PredictIt market steady at 65-41 Biden... no real movement today, everything is noise, no signal

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Overall, PredictIt market steady at 65-41 Biden... no real movement today, everything is noise, no signal

The frenzy should commence at about 9:00 PM EST.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Overall, PredictIt market steady at 65-41 Biden... no real movement today, everything is noise, no signal

One of the things I would love to see is the amount of "real" money in PredictIt on high profile events compared to people trying to manipulate the results.