WW - The Princess Bride (Game Over - Wolves Win)

[EagleFan]

bah, I was beaten to it.

[CrimsonFox]

He scrubs the shower of mildew and grimes

[EagleFan]

Back to work, will check in later if I can. If not I will be back this evening sometime after taking my daughters swimming.

[CrimsonFox]

Random things I have noticed.

JAG, Lathum, and Bug all have fewer posts than ntndeacon. Not typical at all. Bug is usually kinda quiet but not ntn quiet.
The other two usually post way more tho.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Back to work, will check in later if I can. If not I will be back this evening sometime after taking my daughters swimming.

You're overweight! Get to slimming!

[The Jackal]

perhaps they're all at the march of dimes

[CrimsonFox]

Jackal is always a wolf so that makes him a candidate He may just be acting silly just to try something new
But this is not an angle I want to persue.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

perhaps they're all at the march of dimes

Darn I'm almost out of rhymes.

[The Jackal]

Don't worry I haven't committed any crimes

[Autumn]

Lathum said he'd be bbusy for the first copule days, so I'll give him that. JAG is oddly quiet though, I agree.

I will be voting from Bug, Jackal, NTN, Chief I think. That's the best lead I have to go on. I'll try to vote soon as I might be out most of the day.

[The Jackal]

If you think one of me/JAG is a wolf who wolf voted on CR I'd do what NTN did and vote CR first. I have been looking at JAG for that since I know I'm good, but I'd probably vote CR first also if that was the case.

My vote switch that led the final run on DV doesn't look great, but bhlloy was a villager too, as others have said, that'd be a weird move to make as a wolf when I just could've left my vote sit.

[CrimsonFox]

Huh? You just finger JAG as suspicious yet he's not in your "possibly voting for" list?

[The Jackal]

This snake oil potion is sublime

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Huh? You just finger JAG as suspicious yet he's not in your "possibly voting for" list?

his vote list is based on the theory that Pass avoided to vote all four of us, so he thinks at least one is a wolf

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I am a little suspect of the run on CR givenhe can be a great asset to the village. For now

Vote Bholly
Vote Wheelbarrel

Originally Posted by Lathum

This doesnt make me feel any better about you. A d1 vote for NTN beaing inactive is a pretty easy place to hide given his playing style.

Another misc note. Every game I see Lathum play lately he says either or both of these things day one. That voting for ntn is a convenient/easy place to hide vote and/or that "so and so" is a good villager and therefore not voting for them (whether it's true lately or not). I find THAT fact very "convenient/easy to hide" myself. I realize this puts me on his "Oh you mentioned my name, I'm going after you now" whatever list, but I'm okay with that I think. Just don't know as he is good at disguising whether he's a wolf or a villager in what he says.

[The Jackal]

people better start voting, it's almost narcizo's bedtime

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

If you think one of me/JAG is a wolf who wolf voted on CR I'd do what NTN did and vote CR first. I have been looking at JAG for that since I know I'm good, but I'd probably vote CR first also if that was the case.

My vote switch that led the final run on DV doesn't look great, but bhlloy was a villager too, as others have said, that'd be a weird move to make as a wolf when I just could've left my vote sit.

Oh goody? another JAG/jackal fight?

[The Jackal]

if you swim with the electric eels, watch out for the slimes

[CrimsonFox]

I went to the store and bought some zimes.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Oh goody? another JAG/jackal fight?

i didn't win the iocane powder, so no battle of wits wartime

[CrimsonFox]

would like to hear thoughts from Telle and mauboy.

[CrimsonFox]

and chief too actually.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

and chief too actually.

What do you want to know?

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

What do you want to know?

hopes, drfeams, aspirations, thoughts, grunts, rude noises, your suspicions and reasonings about who might be a wolf perhaps?

[JAG]

Sorry guys. This week was already gonna be rough on me, and just an hr ago we learn the FDA will be here for a week in a week, so I won't be able to contribute much other than lunch and break.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by JAG

Sorry guys. This week was already gonna be rough on me, and just an hr ago we learn the FDA will be here for a week in a week, so I won't be able to contribute much other than lunch and break.

Just put high fructose corn syrup in everything there and they'll apporve of whatever it is you do.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

A couple of thoughts. I was looking at the pairs of voter-votee from early in day one, while trying to think of a wolf trying to vote for another to give themself a little camoflauge. And I was struck by MrBug's vote on Autumn. Unfortunately Autumn's vote on MrBug on day 2 before the reveal has lessed that connection in my head. if both were wolves would they be so closely tied?
My second thought deals with the voters of Chief Rum in day one. I think that too is a viable place to go wolf hunting.
Secondly,

Why do you assume there had to be wolf-on-wolf voting D1? I think every player ended up on bhlloy or DV, both villagers, and Narcizo is another known villager that received votes. Going from memory, that's three of the four people who got 3+ votes who are confirmed villagers.

[Autumn]

Finding some way to narrow down my list before I go. Day 1, Chief votes shortly after Pass, both on Darth. I find that a less likely move from a pair of wolves. Jackal's vote is no way tied to Pass, but he does have that last minute switch. Less likely from a wolf, though with the Bhlloy kill, perhaps not so unlikely. NTN's vote is pretty unremarkable, he's noteworthy I guess for being one of the few people left on Bhlloy. Mrbug's votes are inscrutable and odd. Perhaps too odd for a wolf, I'm not sure what to think there.

Day 2, with bug, dacman, jackal, and ntn as the early vote getters, ntn adds chief rather than voting any of those. More signs of multiple wolves? Why wouldn't ntn keep himself safe and go with one of the others? Chief votes bug, bug votes jackal, making those less likely wolf pairs.

Well, this didn't help me at all. Thanks for reading along!

[Autumn]

I guess I'm going to go with NTN. Pass didn't vote him when he could have, and then NTN didn't vote bug or jackal when he could. It doesn't tie all together like I'd hope, but it gives me something, so I can go eat lunch.

vote ntndeacon

[JAG]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Bull moose special?!

lol

[Autumn]

Of course noting my vote down I realized ntn and jackal have been voting each other today. Well done Autumn! I have to eat anyway, Ill see if I have time to look back at it.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Finding some way to narrow down my list before I go. Day 1, Chief votes shortly after Pass, both on Darth. I find that a less likely move from a pair of wolves. Jackal's vote is no way tied to Pass, but he does have that last minute switch. Less likely from a wolf, though with the Bhlloy kill, perhaps not so unlikely. NTN's vote is pretty unremarkable, he's noteworthy I guess for being one of the few people left on Bhlloy. Mrbug's votes are inscrutable and odd. Perhaps too odd for a wolf, I'm not sure what to think there.

Day 2, with bug, dacman, jackal, and ntn as the early vote getters, ntn adds chief rather than voting any of those. More signs of multiple wolves? Why wouldn't ntn keep himself safe and go with one of the others? Chief votes bug, bug votes jackal, making those less likely wolf pairs.

Well, this didn't help me at all. Thanks for reading along!

Some thoughts on your thoughts to play devils advocate. Day one and two I do find wolf on wolf action a lot lately since that usually helps endgame and it's less likely to result in death.


Back to back wolf votes on same target. I see that a lot actually. Mainly because wolves don't really coordinate what they are doing that much. I see where you're going tho. I somewhat agree about ntn voting your ntn voting for a 5th person thing rather than put a second vote on another . But I've also seen people squeamish to 2nd vote someone else so early in the day, even to save themselves for fear of getting either stuck or getting more attention. I don't dislike your theories tho, nor your candidates.

[CrimsonFox]

I think I want Pass and bhlloy back. Can I dig up their bodies or somethin?

[CrimsonFox]

Hmmm ntn introduced chief as a second candidate today. Find that a tad unlikely for them both to be wolves and do that. Or else just incredibly ballsy.

[Autumn]

I guess I'll stay on NTN for now. He's at least got another vote, and since I'm going to be gone all day, that will make my vote more likely to be relevant. I don't really have a clue between NTN, Chief, Jackal and MrBug, I just think there must be at least one wolf in there if not more.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Autumn

All right, in an attempt to find a vote, here's a look at the beginning of voting yesterday, up until Passacaglia makes his switch to PF. I'm going to look at this with the assumption that there's some reason Pass moves his vote (the basic idea being I assume that he knew there was going to be no traction on Dacman).

danny votes autumn 1
autumn votes mrbug 1-1
mauboy votes jackal 1-1-1
danny unvotes autumn 1-1
danny votes mauboy 1-1-1
narc votes ntn 1-1-1-1
danny unvotes mauboy 1-1-1
pass votes dacman 1-1-1-1
ntn votes chief 1-1-1-1-1
chief votes mrbug 2-1-1-1-1
pf votes mrbug 3-1-1-1-1
mrbug votes jackal 3-2-1-1-1
pass unvotes dacman 3-2-1-1
pass votes pf 3-2-1-1-1

So at the point Pass unvotes it's 3-2-1-1-1, Mr.Bug 3, Jackal 2, dacman 1, chief 1, ntn 1

Pass removes dacman, knowing that's not going anywhere. He doesn't pile on to Mrbug, and he doesn't push Jackal up into a tie. But he also doesn't vote for Chief or NTN to push them into contender status. I find all of that interesting.

If all of those players were villagers, I would think Pass votes for one of them. Maybe not Mrbug, or even Jackal, as those are ballsier moves for a wolf, but probably NTN or Chief, little risk, and still a relevant vote.

If Mr. Bug, or Jackal, were a wolf, and I was a wolf, I would be wary of voting for the opposite one, it's a bit too obvious of a save. But I would definitely go with NTN or Chief to at least lessen the chances of my fellow wolf being lynched.

Now if Mr. Bug and Jackal were villagers, but one or both of NTN and Chief were bad, I would add a new target, maybe. Still though, even if one of them were bad, I can't see why Pass wouldn't go for the other one.

Those who maybe have been reading back through Pass's posts, or have a good sense of them, had he backed himself into a corner with any of these candidates, where he couldn't legitimately vote them?

If not, I have to think there's at least one wolf among those four to explain Pass's voting there. Thoughts?

There could be something to this thought. If I remember right, he voted PF who a number of people were saying was suspicious in thread but no one had voted to that point. Dacman and PF seemed like easy targets to drum up a number of votes, but if all the candidates were villagers, why would that be something he would care about?

On the other hand, if they were all villagers, he was free to do whatever he wanted, so it could be he was just trying to stay above suspicion by voting an easy target.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Random things I have noticed.

JAG, Lathum, and Bug all have fewer posts than ntndeacon. Not typical at all. Bug is usually kinda quiet but not ntn quiet.
The other two usually post way more tho.

Wow, that's pretty embarrassing. (shameless filler post)

[CrimsonFox]

you've redeemed yourself now I think.

[Narcizo]

I think JAG said pre-game that he was going to be tied up this week and not able to contribute as much as possible, so I don't read anything into that. I'm more interested in quality rather than quantity anyway. (NB Crimson)

I think Autumn's come out with a lot of stuff that I can get behind. Whether that makes him a villager or a wolf who's good at twisting the evidence to his own nefarious means is not for me to say but I sort of trust what he's saying.

[The Jackal]

JAG you're saying things I've already said! Come up with original comments!

(rants from last game)

[Narcizo]

Regarding Passa, I don't really think he's the sort of wolf to lie low and just add his vote onto an existing candidate. I think both Autumn and I were talking about Packer's day one voting as weird and I think Pass would have good reason to believe at least one of us would follow onto Packer. Like me he'll try to do what he'd do as a villager and only really censor that when it's overtly against his team's cause. I'm going to read what Passa had to say and see if he had reason to believe that by pushing Packer he could get someone to move off of a candidate, but I think it's an outside chance.

[The Jackal]

Yeah I'd say its most likely he chose PF because of the relative ease in which he could frame an argument against him. The rest of us would take a little more effort, and expending more effort trumping up evidence on people gives more of a chance for a wolf to slip up/lay questionable posts.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I think JAG said pre-game that he was going to be tied up this week and not able to contribute as much as possible, so I don't read anything into that. I'm more interested in quality rather than quantity anyway. (NB Crimson)
.

pfff who cares about

[CrimsonFox]

that?

[CrimsonFox]

ah good. mauboy, Lathum, what are your thoughts?

[Narcizo]

Hmmm.. I forgot that Passa seemed to be trying to lead attention to Bhlloy's death being to cover up a wolf voting late on Bhlloy - mentioning Danny and JAG. Pushes them up a notch in trust, which is lucky in Danny's case because I was starting to feel a bit dodgy about him.

[CrimsonFox]

And Telle! Yay a party!

[mauchow]

vote danny

Fly by vote!

[CrimsonFox]

Danny's playing?

[CrimsonFox]

my ever growing list of hmmmm (with pairs being two people i don't think are wolves together): Chief/ntn, Bug, Lathum, Danny/mauboy, JAG