2021 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown

[QuikSand]

I guess it's back to "normal" more or less.

https://www.drf.com/derby-watch

Let's have at it.

[QuikSand]

So, a few quick thoughts:

-if you're a big believer in speed figures ("Beyer" in the DRF stuff above, their trademarked variation) then this is an appetizing race, as the undefeated favorite really doesn't look like a major standout based on speed figures - he just somehow seems to reach the finish line first every race

-Baffert's MEDINA SPIRIT fought really hard to get his win in the Lewis, where he looked beaten and held on - visually impressive but his last out was way less so, well beaten in the SA Derby where he seemingly had no excuse and just didn't have enough...no firm opinion here about the winner of the SA Derby, ROCK YOUR WORLD

-HOT ROD CHARLIE was a bomber who hit the board last fall in the BC Juvenile, but we need to get over him as a plucky nobody, he's a legit player here and is training really well, after a strong win in the La Derby (over an unusually long 1 3/18 distance, notch that as a plus too) - **factor**

-MANDALOUN flopped in Louisiana, but other than that looks sharp, is training well, and has a win in his only other CD outing - he may indeed be a wise guy pick, but if he looks like double digts he will get some of my action

-I always have to fall half-in-love with some nutty longshot play, and here I reckon it will be O BESOS, and I am dwelling on that La Derby as something of a key race, it seems... but the late-running style, his ability to work into traffic, and a really nice work at CD this week... yeah, I'm half in love

[QuikSand]

I have never thought of the Jeff Ruby Steaks as a major Derby prep race, but... I liked the (visual) looks of both top finishers there, even though the speed figure is not at all flattering. Both will be long odds. SAINTHOOD has a lot of trouble there and was absolutely barreling home, that can be fool's gold in prep races but it looked good.

And if you prefer the shallower end of the odds pool, watch the Blue Grass Stakes, where two of the favorites squared off eye to eye, and you may get some sense of what the hubbub is with ESSENTIAL QUALITY who won a gutty one.

[Ksyrup]

The best part about working in Louisville during Derby is that our company closes the office on Oaks Day (Friday). I started this job on May 20th of 2019 so this is my first Derby day off. Yay me. I'm hopeful that by next year the company will get back to hosting a Derby suite and I'll actually get to attend one.

[Ksyrup]

Oh, and here's the field:

Post position, horse, trainer, jockey, morning-line odds

1. Known Agenda, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr., 6-1

2. Like the King, Wesley Ward, Drayden Van Dyke, 50-1

3. Brooklyn Strong, Daniel Velazquez, Umberto Rispoli, 50-1

4. Keepmeinmind, Robertino Diodoro, David Cohen, 50-1

5. Sainthood, Todd Pletcher, Corey Lanerie, 50-1

6. O Besos, Greg Foley, Marcelino Pedroza, 20-1

7. Mandaloun, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 15-1

8. Medina Spirit, Bob Baffert, John Velazquez, 15-1

9. Hot Rod Charlie, Doug O'Neill, Flavien Prat, 8-1

10. Midnight Bourbon, Steve Asmussen, Mike Smith, 20-1

11. Dynamic One, Todd Pletcher, Jose Ortiz, 20-1

12. Helium, Mark Casse, Julien Leparoux, 50-1

13. Hidden Stash, Vicki Oliver, Rafael Bejarano, 50-1

14. Essential Quality, Brad Cox, Luis Saez, 2-1

15. Rock Your World, John Sadler, Joel Rosario, 5-1

16. King Fury, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 20-1

17. Highly Motivated, Chad Brown, Javier Castellano, 10-1

18. Super Stock, Steve Asmussen, Ricardo Santana Jr., 30-1

19. Soup and Sandwich, Mark Casse, Tyler Gaffalione, 30-1

20. Bourbonic, Todd Pletcher, Kendrick Carmouche, 30-1

[GrantDawg]

It is interesting how quietly this race has come on us. I usually hear more discussion about it, but here we are at the eve. I haven't heard much at all except the good work here of Quick and Ksyrup.

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[QuikSand]

I have a decent live Oaks/Derby ticket that includes several odd numbers for tomorrow -- uses 1,5,6,7,11,15,17

[QuikSand]

So, I really like to talk about pace... and here, I guess 15 ROCK YOUR WORLD is the most proven run-to-the-lead guy, and might be able to get there before that first turn. Among the other logicals to get up there... 8 MEDINA SPIRIT, 18 SUPER STOCK, and 12 HELIUM. I do not think anyone will have to work super hard to stay on or near the lead... that could set things up for the front-runners to hang on, and make it harder for late-runners like KNOWN AGENDA or HIGHLY MOTIVATED. Not a really strong vibe on this, I don't think there's a central pace angle this year.

[PilotMan]

Todd Pletcher is running four horses to Baffert's one?

[weegeebored]

FWIW, I will use the following horses in some ex and tri part-wheel combos: 10, 11, 15, 17, and 18. I hesitate to leave out the 14 so I might use him underneath but not on top. I'll put the 10 and 17 on top for sure, but I usually use three horses and I haven't decided on the third one yet. Good luck. Hit 'em big!

[QuikSand]

The betting public wants to give me 13-1 or so on MEDINA SPIRIT, and I don’t think I’m strong enough to resist it. I’m starting to buy the SA rail bias theory (that the rail path was a major advantage), which would place him as a top contender. He will figure prominently in my tickets.

[QuikSand]

If the 5-6-8 triple hits...

[GrantDawg]

Steve Kornaki just agreed with you on Medina Spirit.

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[GrantDawg]

Daggumit. I was so close to putting $50 dollars on Medina Spirit. Why didn't I listen to you, Quik?

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[QuikSand]

...sorting through tickets...

[QuikSand]

Nice hit

[Coffee Warlord]

Hold the phones. Apparently Medina Spirit failed his post race drug test.

[QuikSand]

Tickets already cashed. I'm agnostic.

[weegeebored]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Hold the phones. Apparently Medina Spirit failed his post race drug test.

Baffert? A super trainer because of his special vitamins? Say it ain't so.

[JPhillips]

lol

Baffert went on Fox and blamed cancel culture.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

lol

Baffert went on Fox and blamed cancel culture.

Not the worst strategy. If you fucked up, and it has nothing to do with Red/Blue, but you make it about Red/Blue, you've suddenly got half the country behind you.

(That said, I do like the image of some poor Fox News intern having to pull out his Sharpie and add "Doping Horses" to the ever-growing list of things that millennials have killed.)

[GrantDawg]

I hate this time line. What the hot f does cancel culture have to do with a bad drug test?

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[QuikSand]

critical horse race theory

[cuervo72]

I saw clips where he didn't deny that his horses had tested positive for things (30 times?) but that those drugs don't actually help any. So, no biggie.

Wife and her family pointed out that before the race there was a pow-wow/comparison with Baffert and Belichick. Cheater Lyfe, yo.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

critical horse race theory

Well done

[cuervo72]

Also, "we're going to clear his name."

Uh, Bob, the horse didn't do anything.

[JPhillips]

A Baffert theory:

A groom, who had taken cough syrup, peed on some hay and the horse ate the tainted hay.

(not a joke)

[cartman]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Also, "we're going to clear his name."

Uh, Bob, the horse didn't do anything.

Stomp your left front hoof two times if you want to be injected to help in the race

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Not the worst strategy. If you fucked up, and it has nothing to do with Red/Blue, but you make it about Red/Blue, you've suddenly got half the country behind you.

(That said, I do like the image of some poor Fox News intern having to pull out his Sharpie and add "Doping Horses" to the ever-growing list of things that millennials have killed.)

Yeah, it's going to be used by con artists and criminals for years to come.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Also, "we're going to clear his name."

Uh, Bob, the horse didn't do anything.

[cartman]

Medina Spirit Kentucky Derby Substance Use Confirmed by Bob Baffert – Sportico.com

[I. J. Reilly]

It’s like watching Phil Niekro trying to nonchalantly toss an emery board out of his back pocket.

[QuikSand]

BREAKING: Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit will be allowed to enter the #Preakness Stakes with conditions. Announcement from Maryland Jockey Club: @WMAR2News pic.twitter.com/uip3mmVLO4

— Shawn Stepner (@StepnerWMAR) May 11, 2021

[QuikSand]

Okay, Preakness day. I'm safely old and in the 'burbs. My last visit to the infield was probably 15 years ago.

Past Performances

Okay, so #3 MEDINA SPIRIT is the Derby winner, and will be the favorite, but not overwhelming. Some will doubt whether he can "win without the juice" or whatever. Others, like me, see this being a less favorable setup for an easy lead. I would not be shocked if he wins here, but if he's 2-1 or so, I think he's an underlay (odds too low to merit betting). I will look for value, as I usually do.

Pimlico has a long term history as a speed-favoring track, grab the rail and you've got a great shot. Yesterday did nothing to dispel that. That favors MEDINA SPIRIT, to be honest. But I expect the other Baffert horse, #10 CONCERT TOUR, might want the lead even more than him, and may have the fleetness of foot to get it. I make him a major player. But I do expect them to be pushed by 5 MIDNIGHT BOURBON (whose Derby race was pretty solid, after a bad start), and possibly one or two others. I don't think this will get stolen on the front, if an early leaders wins, he'll have to earn it.

I think I'm looking to beat the rail bias here, and I'm looking at a mid-closer in 4 CROWDED TRADE to be in good shape to pick up the pieces after a hot pace. And the recent workouts by 9 RISK TAKING are really sharp, he has been a pure late-runner thus far, but I reckon he won't fall 8 lengths back here. I think the 9 might be a really tasty price (the 4 feels like a wiseguy horse who goes off at 6 rather than 10) ... and if I'm getting north of his morning like of 15-1, I am going to hammer that 9 both on top and underneath.

My main $45 ticket for the triple thus far is:
4 9 10
3 4 9 10
2 3 4 5 8 9 10

Good luck, friends.

[GrantDawg]

Quick, you did so well at the derby, the temptation to sign up somewhere and bet your lead is high.

[QuikSand]

I’m on fire today if that matters...

[QuikSand]

In semi-early wagering, MIDNIGHT BOURBON is the 5-2 favorite. Nutso. Both the others need to be in play.

[QuikSand]

...now have a decent daily double ticket alive with 3 4 9 10

[QuikSand]

Well, I think I recall hearing one guy on the NBC broadcast mention he liked Rombauer at a price to hit the board underneath his winner... past that basically radio silence all week, despite him being only 11-1, he feels like a massive surprise.

[JPhillips]

It was a fun race to watch. I wish the camera angle was better so I could have a better sense of how close he was, but it was quite a surprise to see him streak past the top two.

And I'm glad we don't have all the nonsense around Medina Spirit running for the Triple Crown.

[QuikSand]

I have no words.

Rest in peace, Medina Spirit. You were the first Kentucky Derby winner I ever got to do photos of while you wore your yellow saddle cloth and thundered around Churchill Downs.

My heart is broken. I love you, big guy. pic.twitter.com/raBphaeWKf

— Anika Miskar Photography (@seattleracing) December 6, 2021

[QuikSand]

it's an increasing source of perturbation as I personally reconcile my continued enjoyment of this sport, alongside my own views and other life decisions regarding animals