2016 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown races

[QuikSand]

Well, I guess it's about that time. Race is this Saturday. Field nearly set. We have a good looking and undefeated favorite.

Past Performances:
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KYDerby16.pdf

[QuikSand]

I think this link will give you a YouTube playlist of prep races, in chronological order - starting way back last fall, and including pretty much everything relevant.

RACE REPLAY: 2015 FrontRunner Stakes at Santa Anita - YouTube

[digamma]

Thanks for posting.

In a way, it seems like American Pharaoh's performance took a little bit of the sting out of the Triple Crown races. Now a generation of folks who had been waiting most of their lives to see a TC winner have checked that box. So I wonder if rather than generating more interest, AP's success lessened it?

Of course, another awesome horse would probably quickly change that.

[QuikSand]

Hard to say whether the attention is deeply lessened this year, but I buy the theory as realistic.

I'm mostly in it for the betting opportunities, and I think the favorite NYQUIST can be beaten.

[MacroGuru]

What are some of the better online wagering sites for this?

Since I moved back to Utah, I have nothing close by I can go to to place bets.

[QuikSand]

Some interesting reading on NYQUIST's pedigree - basically the biggest question with him is whether he can carry out his brilliance to a classic distance of 1 1/4 miles. We have seen a lot of really nice horses come up short here, including a TON who have this sort of pedigree profile -- bred for brilliance and precocity, but not necessarily stamina. The discussion about the "large heart gene" is an interesting sidebar, and might develop into a serious thing in time.

[QuikSand]

You can wager online legally from the US at a site like xpressbet, and they have a partnership with DRF.

There are plenty of promotions available.

Don't wait until Saturday to set up an account.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

The discussion about the "large heart gene" is an interesting sidebar, and might develop into a serious thing in time.

It is an interesting conversation.

Large Heart Gene

[QuikSand]

If in time there become other phenoptypical tags for the large heart gene, it seems like it could be useful. Maybe that's so already and some insiders are cleaning up on it based on ear shape or whatnot. I'm not there, and don't know anyone who is. I've heard it about Forestry and a few others, but nothing consistent enough to take as a true angle. Forestry is a fine sire with or without the mythology, basically.

Here's some more reading, if you're interested: The X-Factor

[murrayyyyy]

Everyone I know keeps talking up Exaggerator up to me but I just can't fall in love with it. I'll probably put Creator and Suddenbreakingnews in a couple of tri-boxes without knowing the posts.

[QuikSand]

My main thinking right now:

NYQUIST - looks plenty talented but turned off by the price, and there could be a bit of pace here, which may not suit him perfectly

EXAGGERATOR - I am fairly unimpressed by the apparently huge move running past horses who had all completely stopped

MOHAYMEN - I know he had to run wide and hard in the Fla Derby, trying to give him a throwout there for flattening because I think he's got real talent

MOR SPIRIT - fits a lot of profiles of horses I like, mediocre odds, I'll likely use him

CREATOR - Great, monster run in the Ark Derby - fluke or fluky-good development? (for a 3yo the latter is not unheard of)

WHITMORE - moving up my board now after a great work Sunday at CD, should be great odds

TOM'S READY - price play I am interested in here

MO TOM - hard luck dude who seems to have a good race in him, maybe if he ran all alone (20-horse field is a tough place to finally find your good racing luck)


I have a busy week ahead, and likely won't get to do a lot of homework. But I will likely get to design a six-way ticket for a syndicate - here's my first draft for that (to play for both the tri and super):

NYQUIST
MOR SPIRIT
MOHAYMEN
CREATOR
WHITMORE
TOM'S READY

[QuikSand]

An interesting tool for projecting horses' growth as they stretch out in distance is just looking at the raw times of their last 3 furlongs. In general, <38 seconds is impressive, and >39 seconds is a worry. As usual, outliers abound. But it did identify a difference last year between the two favorites, Dortmund (slow) and American Pharoah (fast).

https://www.americasbestracing.net/g...tenders-finish

One more site touting NYQUIST as a real player, he finished the Fla Derby pretty fast for having been right in the front mix the whole way.

[Dutch]

The theme for the Derby this year should be "I want, Mo, Mor, More"

[QuikSand]

http://interactives.courier-journal....compressed.pdf

[murrayyyyy]

Sticking with a tri box from 13, 17, 3, 2 and tri box from 11, 17, 3, 2. Will probably do a superfecta wheel of the 5 horses above with 11, 13, 17 wheeled. Should cost me $120 for all that. (haven't done wheel's in a while but I think 1 horse with 4 others is $24 bucks)

[QuikSand]

I like that ticket.

[murrayyyyy]

Props I've seen:
Creator +105 v Gun Runner -135
Creator -110 v Mohaymen -120
Gun Runner 105 v Mohaymen -135
Suddenbreakingnews -115 v Mo Tom -115
My man Sam -105 v SuddenBN -125
Mo Tom -125 v My Man Sam -105
Whitmore -115 v My Man Sam -115
Mor Spirits -120 v Brody's Cause -110
Destin -170 v Danzing Candy 140
Outwork 105 v Destin -135
Outwork -160 v Danzing Candy 130
Shagaf +115 v Whitmore -145
Majesto -115 v Tom's Ready -115
Destin -130 v Mor Spirit even
Destin 105 v Brody's Cause -135
Trojan Nation -135 v Oscar nominated 105
Mo Tom -150 v Danzing Candy 120
SuddenBN -190 v Danzing Candy 160

I hate Danzing Candy starting in the 20 and think he has no shot here. Too bad everyone has jumped on that in h2h bets.

[BillyNYC]

After attending the Belmont last year, it's a bit hard to get too into the races this year.

Did go to the Wood Memorial last month, so saw a few of entrants (Shagaf, Outwork, Trojan Nation). Was a muddy day, but none really impressed. Made a random $2 place bet on 81-1 Trojan Nation that day, which helped pay for dinner. Might do the same tomorrow.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

My main thinking right now:

NYQUIST - looks plenty talented but turned off by the price, and there could be a bit of pace here, which may not suit him perfectly

EXAGGERATOR - I am fairly unimpressed by the apparently huge move running past horses who had all completely stopped

MOHAYMEN - I know he had to run wide and hard in the Fla Derby, trying to give him a throwout there for flattening because I think he's got real talent

MOR SPIRIT - fits a lot of profiles of horses I like, mediocre odds, I'll likely use him

CREATOR - Great, monster run in the Ark Derby - fluke or fluky-good development? (for a 3yo the latter is not unheard of)

WHITMORE - moving up my board now after a great work Sunday at CD, should be great odds

TOM'S READY - price play I am interested in here

MO TOM - hard luck dude who seems to have a good race in him, maybe if he ran all alone (20-horse field is a tough place to finally find your good racing luck)


I have a busy week ahead, and likely won't get to do a lot of homework. But I will likely get to design a six-way ticket for a syndicate - here's my first draft for that (to play for both the tri and super):

NYQUIST
MOR SPIRIT
MOHAYMEN
CREATOR
WHITMORE
TOM'S READY

My two value plays are Cherry Wine and Majesto - I think one of them may place/show. I also like Exaggerator and Whitmore for a WPS bet. If you want a real longshot with a puncher's chance at a show, I'd throw a few duckets on Oscar Nominated to show (50-1 odds to win right now).

[Arles]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

An interesting tool for projecting horses' growth as they stretch out in distance is just looking at the raw times of their last 3 furlongs. In general, <38 seconds is impressive, and >39 seconds is a worry. As usual, outliers abound. But it did identify a difference last year between the two favorites, Dortmund (slow) and American Pharoah (fast).

https://www.americasbestracing.net/g...tenders-finish

One more site touting NYQUIST as a real player, he finished the Fla Derby pretty fast for having been right in the front mix the whole way.

Great article with some interesting data. I feel like this is about as open a field as we have had in a while.

[Senator]

I greatly wish to get into Quiks yealry syndicate.

[TCY Junkie]

Originally Posted by Arles

My two value plays are Cherry Wine and Majesto - I think one of them may place/show. I also like Exaggerator and Whitmore for a WPS bet. If you want a real longshot with a puncher's chance at a show, I'd throw a few duckets on Oscar Nominated to show (50-1 odds to win right now).

Cherry Wine didn't get in, needed two scratches by 9 am. His last race him and brody were coming up on a hole and cherry wine didn't go for it. Trainer dale romans trains both of them and said the jockey did not fight for the hole and acted like it was because it was his other horse he trains he would have to fight with. So he doesn't get the hole. If he got the hole he would have at least got second and enough points to get in.

my picks for the derby 9 3 19

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Senator

I greatly wish to get into Quiks yealry syndicate.

Too late this year, but next year that could happen. It's $100 to get in the door, I can get you past the ropes.

[QuikSand]

Live odds:
Live Odds on the Kentucky Derby | 2016 Kentucky Derby & Oaks | May 6 and 7, 2016 | Tickets, Events, News

Thoughts:

NYQUIST down to 2, a expected

EXAGGERATOR down to 5, not expected by me

The Arkansas Derby group is being disrespected - the 3, 2, and 10 are all up from the M/L (and I am using all three)

[QuikSand]

...oh, and the people have decided that SHAGAF is the worst horse in this field. That's silly.

[QuikSand]

So, I have been really wondering about pace here (meaning who gets and pushes the early lead and how hard do they have to work to get there). Initially I felt like there were two solid pace horses that could keep things honest for NYQUIST (the 15 and the 20). But given their outside positions, that's a weaker line of thinking.

My group put in one bet basically on the theory that this race could go like last year's -- early front runners simply don't have any trouble getting and staying there, and it ends up being all about them. You may recall that American Pharoah, Dortmund (the second betting choice), and Firing Line (another logical, with a great jockey and some tactical speed) all romped to the front and really were never threatened after setting very pedestrian fractions.

This year I think DANZING CANDY is the "let him go" horse and in another situation would run out the half mile at something like 45.2, but from the 20th position I don't love that. The 15 OUTWORK isn't a terrible horse either, but he'll run from the auxiliary gate too.

I'm looking for someone from the inside of NYQUIST to simply decide that his best shot today is to steal the race on the front end. I talked myself into 5 GUN RUNNER to be that guy, but that largely hinged on the theory (quoting myself here) "Asmussen knows he doesn't have the best horse, so why not try a gadget play and just send him." But with the 5 being bet down to the 3rd choice, I'm not so sure it will be a novelty play. But I still think he might take the Firing Line approach from 2015...and he could be on the rail at the first turn, which would be a surprise to most everyone.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Live odds:
Live Odds on the Kentucky Derby | 2016 Kentucky Derby & Oaks | May 6 and 7, 2016 | Tickets, Events, News

Thoughts:

NYQUIST down to 2, a expected

EXAGGERATOR down to 5, not expected by me

The Arkansas Derby group is being disrespected - the 3, 2, and 10 are all up from the M/L (and I am using all three)

Whitmore is the one that has me worried about my plays right now. Thought Mohaymen was going to end up going off as 2nd today but that doesn't look like it will happen.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

NYQUIST
MOR SPIRIT
MOHAYMEN
CREATOR
WHITMORE
TOM'S READY

So, I cooled on TOM'S READY and basically dropped him from my own tickets and thinking. Used SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS more as my semi-bomber in that thinking.

Glad to see 16-1 on CREATOR. I can't get myself all the way to "he is my pick" but I felt like that Ark Derby was a real race, and I'm taking him seriously.

MOHAYMEN still messing me up. Like the win odds at 12 a lot, and I think he's great value there. We have seen really good horses throw up one clunker and then look great in the Derby...he's a real talent. Hard to believe he's simply done.

I'm all but tossing EXAGGERATOR, obviously. You have to take a stand against a few short price horses, and I'm really not using the 5, 9, or 11 much at all.

[QuikSand]

Interesting site for pedigree and performance:

2016 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Not that long ago, it used to be (seem?) very powerful to throw out horses who didn't pass two fairly simple tests - having a substantial foundation of success as a 2yo, and a satisfactory balance of stamina influences in his bloodlines.

The last several years have made the case for this angle far weaker, but if you still buy it - here's your typically short list of dual qualifiers:

11 EXAGGERATOR
14 MOHAYMEN
17 MOR SPIRIT
19 BRODYS CAUSE

[QuikSand]

...just in case you care, NYQUIST has a lovely pedigree for precocity and early brilliance, and was a great 2yo champion, but unless he's got something underneath the surface (see the big heart discussion earlier, noting that his damsire Forestry is a believed but not proven carrier) his bloodlines say he's not interested in running as far as the 10f Derby distance.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

...just in case you care, NYQUIST has a lovely pedigree for precocity and early brilliance, and was a great 2yo champion, but unless he's got something underneath the surface (see the big heart discussion earlier, noting that his damsire Forestry is a believed but not proven carrier) his bloodlines say he's not interested in running as far as the 10f Derby distance.

The only problem I have with DI is that Uncle Mo as a sire ruins it for 3 horses. I mean Mo was an undefeated 2 yr old champ before getting sick. Either you think his EFH means he peaked too soon (like his sire) or that he hasn't improved (which I don't considering he's run a ton of grade 1 races).

I know people claim DI is a huge factor and you are suppose to stay below 4 but I've got 2 on my ticket.

[QuikSand]

Hmmm...just asked if I could place a $200 win bet on MOR SPIRIT.

I fairly often just book bets from friends, I'd rather have the house takeout on my side. My worst loss this way was about $400. This would be a good deal more.

Thinking about it...I'm cooling on him.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Hmmm...just asked if I could place a $200 win bet on MOR SPIRIT.

I fairly often just book bets from friends, I'd rather have the house takeout on my side. My worst loss this way was about $400. This would be a good deal more.

Thinking about it...I'm cooling on him.

Obviously I like him but everyone out here in Vegas seems to be on him. If Mohaymen gets to 15-1 or higher I'll lay some on him to win(wasn't he the favorite before the preps?). Also can't get rid of Whitmore for some reason (especially if he sticks at 33-1)

[QuikSand]

For anyone playing the CD card today, here are a few I like for value in the earlier races:

Race 7, I'm singling 6 SPEIGHTSTER

Race 8, I'm using the logicals, no real insight

Race 9, I'm using 5 FRANKS CONVERSATION at 15-1 and 8 SHAKHIMAT

race 10, I really like the 5 IMPERIAL HINT and would be thrilled with the ML of 15, but would still take 9. I think the 6 SHARP AZTECA is live at 8-1 also.

Race 11, I'm skipping the buzz horse BOLO and will use 5 REPORTING STAR at 15-1 to try to step up and beat more accomplished runners (12, 6)

Hmmm...so basically if the number 5 horse is announced as a winner during your Derby party, have one for me, cuz I likely just hit it.

[murrayyyyy]

That huge cell moving towards the track makes me glad I added Exagg to some tickets as he looked like a bullet in the mud last time. Worried that inside speed might go wire to wire in the slop with that huge red cell moving in but can't settle on anyone in there with it being a lot of closers.

Probably jumping off Whitmore now.

[Arles]

Our son was born 5-17-13, so my wife is doing that exacta box.

[Senator]

Skipping the exotics and going with 100 bucks on CREATOR.

[Arles]

I did an 11-13-15 exacta box.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

So, I have been really wondering about pace here (meaning who gets and pushes the early lead and how hard do they have to work to get there). Initially I felt like there were two solid pace horses that could keep things honest for NYQUIST (the 15 and the 20). But given their outside positions, that's a weaker line of thinking.

My group put in one bet basically on the theory that this race could go like last year's -- early front runners simply don't have any trouble getting and staying there, and it ends up being all about them. You may recall that American Pharoah, Dortmund (the second betting choice), and Firing Line (another logical, with a great jockey and some tactical speed) all romped to the front and really were never threatened after setting very pedestrian fractions.

This year I think DANZING CANDY is the "let him go" horse and in another situation would run out the half mile at something like 45.2, but from the 20th position I don't love that. The 15 OUTWORK isn't a terrible horse either, but he'll run from the auxiliary gate too.

I'm looking for someone from the inside of NYQUIST to simply decide that his best shot today is to steal the race on the front end. I talked myself into 5 GUN RUNNER to be that guy, but that largely hinged on the theory (quoting myself here) "Asmussen knows he doesn't have the best horse, so why not try a gadget play and just send him." But with the 5 being bet down to the 3rd choice, I'm not so sure it will be a novelty play. But I still think he might take the Firing Line approach from 2015...and he could be on the rail at the first turn, which would be a surprise to most everyone.

I know you may not have landed here, but pretty prescient stuff.

Nice run by the fave.

[murrayyyyy]

4 favorites...Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.

If Nyquist wins the Preakness then Suddenlybreakingnews wins the Belmont. Let Sudden rest the next race and he wins the Belmont easily (IMO).

[Senator]

clean race and pretty much as Quik discussed about pace.

[QuikSand]

So, I didn't personally cash a ticket all day. It happens. I'm rarely a chalk-chalk-chalk bettor. I, too, considered EXAGGERATOR during the brief squall, but let it go. Pace was about what I thought, but that didn't get me anywhere in terms of tickets. Blah.

I expect lots of this field might skip the Preakness, why not?

[murrayyyyy]

Maybe 7 go on to the Preakness? Besides that maybe Cupid gets back in it? It was 8 horses last year and I'm not sure I can justify it being more than that instead of waiting for the 3rd leg to piss off Coburn and create drama.

[QuikSand]

Yay, turns out I did cash a sneaky Pick 3 ending with the Derby but using the two 15-1 hits in the preceding races for a couple hundred bucks. So, not as bad a day as I thought.

[TCY Junkie]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

race 10, I really like the 5 IMPERIAL HINT and would be thrilled with the ML of 15, but would still take 9. I think the 6 SHARP AZTECA is live at 8-1 also.

.

I used up all my data on phone a day ago and does not reset until tomorrow. Saw someone else pick the 6 but forgot at the track and couldn't look online. I had the 8 in the next race. Been following that horse for a year. ever since he close from 10th at 6f mark to win with 29 seconds flat closing last 2.5 furlongs. Horse was flying, loves CD. broke even on the day but if I had online access I could have won a lot with that 6 horse. Nice pick.

[Senator]

Would enjoy a sidebar about the Large Heart Gene - X Factor.

It is something I suspected at an intuitive level when the size of Secretariats heart was news, but what surprised me was the link to Quarter horses, as I grew up watching them at Ruidoso Downs in New Mexico.

DASH FOR CASH and BUGS ALIVE IN 75 were so dominant during that time, and to see them on this big heart list from the QH side, was a real eye opener. I remember being very little and seeing DFC just look like a different engine was on him.

[murrayyyyy]

Bigger field than I expected. 15 horses in the Preakness. May throw a little on Cupid since he was my pre-derby future bet. SuddenBN has been held out so I still like him in the 3rd leg.

2016 Preakness Odds
HORSE ODDS
Nyquist 5-7
Exaggerator 9-2
Gun Runner 12-1
Stradivari 12-1
Cherry Wine 20-1
Creator 20-1
Collected 25-1
Dazzling Gem 25-1
Uncle Lino 25-1
Awesome Speed 25-1
Fellowship 30-1
Cupid 30-1
Lani 30-1
Laoban 40-1
Abiding Star 40-1

[QuikSand]

LAOBAN is going to run like the dickens out of the gate for at least a solid six or seven furlongs. At 40-1, you'll at least get some legit excitement from that bet. We have seen some cheap speed win after grabbing that rail at Pimlico.

Not saying he's my play, just saying.

I agree CUPID is a pretty nice horse at those odds, too.

[QuikSand]

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/Preakness16.pdf

Post position draw is today... looking like plenty of legit speed in the race, so at least NYQUIST will get what AP didn't get last year (i.e. the right sort of challenger in this race). Position could matter a lot if there's plenty of pace.

[QuikSand]

Past performances with the post positions
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/Preakness16.pdf

I give #2 UNCLE LINO a solid shot to run out and keep NYQUIST off the rail, and given this setup I think NYQUIST is an underlay if he's odds-on as expected. The 8 LAOBAN wants the lead, but didn't draw well - the 4, 7, and 11 are also looking to be forwardly placed. On paper that sets thing up pretty nicely for a stalking or off-the-pace horse to get there. 5 EXAGGERATOR won't give us much of a price, but perhaps the #1 CHERRY WINE will. I will be kicking those tires a fair bit between now and race day.