Werewolf XII: Mafia Returneth

[digamma]

Blade's "act" just isn't adding up for me.

I'm not convinced about Shorty.

If we think Blade is mafia, why aren't we just voting for him? Why take a shot at the short one here?

[pennywisesb]

and the second you posted that he signed off......

[pennywisesb]

Originally Posted by digamma

Blade's "act" just isn't adding up for me.

I'm not convinced about Shorty.

If we think Blade is mafia, why aren't we just voting for him? Why take a shot at the short one here?

I understand what you are saying. I'm still trying to figure out my the mafia wouldn't try to take Blade out last night and took a shot in the dark on Bug. I'm getting more and more suspicious of Blade.

[jeff061]

If we think Blade is mafia, why aren't we just voting for him? Why take a shot at the short one here?

On the off chance that he's telling the truth it would hurt.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by jeff061

And Blade you go to stop being so dramatic You haven't even got a single vote towards you, and no one said they would vote for you.

I cant change how paranoid i am of dying...my idea is if i drill it into there wil lbe no doubt...since it looks like their leaning to shorty now, and for all i know shorty was the dons son and got taken on night two im nervous...because if shorty is bad, the next day vote wont even be two seconds, regardless of how fair it is...I am never the guy no one notices, and i like it that way since it more fun to be talkative as hell, but its frustrating since im always on the chopping block. I put myself there to make the game more fun, as i dont find it fun to sit there quiet and not post, but its still seems like im always fighting for my life...and if im to die, i shall do so as dramatic as possible to make everyone feel bad for doing so wrongly afterwards lol...gotta get the hollywood dramatics in, adds excitement for the gameto me...at the end of the day its a game, and no matter how dramtic you think i am your wrong...its all me trying to make the game more exciting and fun...it takes controversy like me/realdeal or me/bek or the split x-com vote near the end to make a game truly great...and great games are more fun...everything you see from me is probobly me trying to dramaticize and make my role more fun...if it gets me killed, on to next game Know what i mean?

i thought i would explain my irrational behavior...and i highly doubt any of you found the bek or real deal situations didnt add anything to the game...hell, were basing our votes today for shorty off the fact that i said he was clean becuase i got bek killed...the whole game is shaping around me dropping one PM into the thread...and everyone is having more fun for it i hope. Im off for the day, vote well boys

[pennywisesb]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

I cant change how paranoid i am of dying...my idea is if i drill it into there wil lbe no doubt...since it looks like their leaning to shorty now, and for all i know shorty was the dons son and got taken on night two im nervous...because if shorty is bad, the next day vote wont even be two seconds, regardless of how fair it is...I am never the guy no one notices, and i like it that way since it more fun to be talkative as hell, but its frustrating since im always on the chopping block. I put myself there to make the game more fun, as i dont find it fun to sit there quiet and not post, but its still seems like im always fighting for my life...and if im to die, i shall do so as dramatic as possible to make everyone feel bad for doing so wrongly afterwards lol...gotta get the hollywood dramatics in, adds excitement for the gameto me...at the end of the day its a game, and no matter how dramtic you think i am your wrong...its all me trying to make the game more exciting and fun...it takes controversy like me/realdeal or me/bek or the split x-com vote near the end to make a game truly great...and great games are more fun...everything you see from me is probobly me trying to dramaticize and make my role more fun...if it gets me killed, on to next game Know what i mean?

i thought i would explain my irrational behavior...and i highly doubt any of you found the bek or real deal situations didnt add anything to the game...hell, were basing our votes today for shorty off the fact that i said he was clean becuase i got bek killed...the whole game is shaping around me dropping one PM into the thread...and everyone is having more fun for it i hope. Im off for the day, vote well boys

What the hell?

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by pennywisesb

What the hell?

My style of play was repetively criticized by some people...so i responded to it...this isnt just this game penny, people think im too open with my role and ideas in every game...bug jeff and henry have all said along these lines, and there have been others...just answering my critics before i leave

[dubb93]

todays vote is going to be interesting, so many suspects....bearcat....blade....shorty....some people suspect me, i'm off for a couple hours, be back with my analysis so if it looks like I'm lurking in a couple hours its b/c I'm writing that up.

[jeff061]

Open with your roles, yes, you need to stop that .

Ideas are fine, just realize if you take these ideas and forcefully state someone is guilty because of it you'll be scrutinized when they are innocent. Other than you revealing your roles I have no problem with your style.

[Fouts]

Just got online and after researching MrBug's posts, he didn't say a whole lot. He did post that he believed in blade. His votes were;

Day 1 - no vote
Day 2 - Aesyrqwe
Day 3 - jeff

I believe Blade, mostly because he knows I am a villager, and I think the 3 guys he has scanned are all villagers. Right now I am leaning towards voting for jeff. Jeff ran us down the realdeal track, and has voted for me the last two days with nothing to base it on. Going to look over some recent posts and see if anything else pops up.

[jeff061]

I'll wait . I have no defense to being voted on by a seer role, but he was just suspicious of me for whatever unstated reason, nothing more.

I don't know what RealDeal has to do with anything or how it is inciminating, I mean you voted him as well.

[jeff061]

and has voted for me the last two days with nothing to base it on

I stated what I based it on. Which is more than the reasons you have given for who you have voted on.

[SackAttack]

I was working on a nice long post before my journalism class started, but I didn't get it finished in time to post it, so I'm basically starting from scratch here.

There's just too many things that don't add up about Blade's play lately, and the talk of "being paranoid because of criticism of my play in recent games" makes a fine cover for erratic play here.

As to why Shorty, well, I have deep concerns about both players, but there's the possibility that Blade is telling the truth about being a seer of some kind. If that's the case, I'd prefer not to make a mistake on that.

I think that pretending to be a seer is a great way to try and slip a Mafioso into the 'trusted' circle, and we've not seen much of substance from Shorty. If I'm wrong, then Blade is either innocent, or since he knows who the villagers are, he's throwing two confirmed names out there to try and gain trust (well, I guess three by now).

That's getting overly paranoid, though, and I prefer not to get into that because it just confuses the issue.

I'm going to stick with my vote for Shorty. I don't have anything other than my analysis to back me up, but my gut is screaming at me that my hunch is correct. I hope it is, because I don't want to see any more innocent villagers lynched.

[Fouts]

Well, I don't know much about shorty other than what blade posted. I agree that shorty has been quiet, but the basis of your vote is that blade is mafia, so shorty must be mafia? It is possible, but if you want us to not believe blade, then you and I are suspects as well in blade's mafia posse.

[jeff061]

What had me swing more in Shorty's direction, from Sack's earlier post:

Well, Blade claimed to have viewed both Shorty and myself in the first two nights, and declared both of us "clean." If most of the villagers already trusted me before that point - and I'd like to think that's the case - what better way to slip another Mafioso inside the "circle of trust" than to label him "clean" along with another player already known or suspected to be safe?

Whether Fouts is implicated in this I'm not sure, would Blade try the trick a second time after he had some heat on him? And I do realize Sack could be converted, I've been saying that since early day two.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Fouts

Well, I don't know much about shorty other than what blade posted. I agree that shorty has been quiet, but the basis of your vote is that blade is mafia, so shorty must be mafia? It is possible, but if you want us to not believe blade, then you and I are suspects as well in blade's mafia posse.

Not that he *must* be, but rather that I think there's a high likelihood of it.

Look, if Blade is Mafia, having every single person he "clears" be Mafia would be stretching belief. If you want to hide something in plain sight, you need to make sure that you're providing good camouflage. "Clearing" two or three truly innocent villagers and then trying to slip a wolf in sheep's clothing in the group would be a smart play. If he gets proven right about one of them being a villager, then perhaps suspicion drops away from the others - including the one who's really a Mafioso.

And honestly, I probably wouldn't even suspect Shorty if not for Blade's nonchalance about trying to ascertain Bek's true identity. If he's really a seer, it should have been a simple matter to scan Bek, but instead he chose to rely fully on what we now know was a joke PM, and to totally eschew any other form of evidence that might have convicted or cleared Bek.

That smells fishy to me. I have strong doubts about Blade, stronger than I do Shorty, but given the nature of the role Blade is claiming, it's "safer," if you will, to vote for the other person about whom I have suspicions (and, not coincidentally, somebody Blade has "cleared") and see if my hypothesis is right or wrong.

If I'm wrong, better to be wrong about a villager than a seer.

But if I'm right, exposing Shorty automatically exposes Blade. It's a two-for-one special.

[jeff061]

And as a side note, just something to keep in mind for the future(depending how things turn out), Digamma put the feelers out there to lynch Blade.

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by jeff061

What had me swing more in Shorty's direction, from Sack's earlier post:



Whether Fouts is implicated in this I'm not sure, would Blade try the trick a second time after he had some heat on him? And I do realize Sack could be converted, I've been saying that since early day two.

My point is that if we don't trust blade as a seer, then the 3 people he has viewed as a villager (shorty, sack, myself) can't be trusted. I choose to believe him, since I think all 3 are villagers and I have no information that he isn't a seer. Unfortunately, he hasn't given us any information to go on for voting.

The dead seer (mrbug) voted for you (jeff). Which is why I am voting this way. I wish he could confirm this vote, but he was conveniently killed.

I vote jeff

[jeff061]

Well, I was going to vote this anyways, but just to hopefully stem a bandwagon.

Vote Shorty

The other person bug voted for was innocent and so am I.

[jeff061]

And I hope people think enough of me as not to think I'd kill the lone guy that votes for me without knowing his role, if i were guilty .

[digamma]

So, there are 13 of us left:

Current Players:
1. dubb93
2. ardent enthusiast
3. SackAttack
4. Fouts
5. RealDeal - Villager, Lynched Day 1
6. Bearcat729
7. illinifan999
8. MrBug708
9. SnDvls
10. Mr. Wednesday - Witness, Killed By Mafia Night 1
11. digamma
12. bek - Villager, Lynched Day 3
13. Aesyrqwe - Villager, Lynched Day 2
14. Shorty3281
15. pennywisesb
16. Schmidty
17. Blade6119
18. jeff061

If Blade is to be believed, then he, SackAttack, Fouts and Shorty are all clean (unless Shorty or Sack were converted). Of that, I'm very confident that SackAttack is clean.

So, again, if Blade is to be believed, then the mafia must be among dubb, ardent, Bearcat, illinifan, Bug, SunDvls, pennywisesb, Schmidty and me.

[Bearcat729]

It seems to me that it is possible that Sack going for Shorty could backfire. If we all vote for Shorty and then it comes out that he was a villager it will make Sack look a little more guilty.

To me that after showing that Bek was innocent that Blade became a little bigger of a target for scrutiny. Perhaps the cop was going to protect him which means that it would be a wasted night for the mafia. Perhaps the reason no one died on night 2 was because the cop protected someone and we just don't know it because the cop didn't feel that it was good to let the mafia know who he was.

The more I think about it the less I trust Blade. It seems easy that I could have pretended to be a seer and said so and so was a normal villager, but the way I've played the game so far hasn't worked out to my advantage at all. So I Vote Blade6119

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by jeff061

And I hope people think enough of me as not to think I'd kill the lone guy that votes for me without knowing his role, if i were guilty .

Normally, I would agree with this, but with a huge lead the mafia could feel they can overcome the direct implication. Like last game, the mafia probably has a seer of their own, which would explain them nailing the witness and reporter.

My theory is that the mafia saw mrbug and took him down immediately because they couldn't afford to keep him looking around. They think they can overcome any votes in jeff's direction. Now if I'm wrong, then its unfortunate for jeff because he was "randomly" picked by mrbug.

[jeff061]

Just keep in mind if your wrong you've lynched a seer. Which is the only reason Shorty is the target.

[jeff061]

Like last game, the mafia probably has a seer of their own, which would explain them nailing the witness and reporter.

I was going to ask this. No luck for me .

[illinifan999]

There's this lurking suspicion brought out by Sack that blade might just be a mafia seer which makes me really nervous. This vote isn't set in stone as I usually like to wait about an hour before the deadline to finalize my vote, but

I vote blade6119

[Bearcat729]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Just keep in mind if your wrong you've lynched a seer. Which is the only reason Shorty is the target.

So far every bandwagon vote has done nothing but save the mafia in the game some time, and allow them to kill more useful villagers. If I'm wrong it will mean my death tomorrow because there are enough people who don't trust me as it is.

[Poli]

I'm having a tough time trusting blade myself, but I'll reserve my vote for later. Something just isn't adding up. If he's dirty, I'd have to think shorty or Sackattack is as well.

Softball practice and my flag football game isn't until later tonight.

[jeff061]

So far every bandwagon vote has done nothing but save the mafia in the game some time,

I'm not sure how you'd classify a "bandwagon vote" to make that statement. I certainly don't consider a vote against Shorty, at least mine, a bandwagon vote. I see risks and benefits, either way, and think it's a good choice.

Also on the plus side, if he is innocent, we haven't lost a heavy contributor.

[korme]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Upon further reconsideration, I'm suspecting Blade and Shorty are Mafia.

So why do I think Shorty is also a Mafioso?

Well, Blade claimed to have viewed both Shorty and myself in the first two nights, and declared both of us "clean." If most of the villagers already trusted me before that point - and I'd like to think that's the case - what better way to slip another Mafioso inside the "circle of trust" than to label him "clean" along with another player already known or suspected to be safe?

And yet...we really have nothing to go on to this point but Blade's word that he isn't a Mafioso. We have claims that he's viewed Shorty and myself, but we also have an assertion that viewing Bek was unnecessary, when we now know that if he's on the level, and had he acted on his suspicions and viewed Bek, an innocent villager could have been saved. We have either a failure to scan anybody last night, or else the following proposition:

The Mafia are incredibly lucky, hitting on two important villagers in successive attacks, while our own seer is either incompetent, or simply so mistrustful of his fellow villagers that he's selecting safe people each night to view, on the hypothesis that it's "always the ones you wouldn't otherwise suspect.

That I suspect Shorty isn't because of anything Shorty has or hasn't done, but simply because I believe Blade to be a Mafioso at this point, and that being so, it would make perfect sense to me for him to try and slip Shorty inside the village's "circle of trust."

So I vote Shorty.

My reasoning here is that if my hypothesis is true and correct, uncovering Shorty will expose Blade in a major way. After all, if Bek was innocent and Shorty guilty - both the opposite of Blade's assertions - then we know Blade is lying, and we have our target for tomorrow night.

If I'm wrong, then we've made another horrible mistake, but we've made quite a few of those this game, and it isn't as though I have anything better than this to go on right now thanks to the witness and newspaper reporter croaking.

Oh my God, how brilliant you are.

" That I suspect Shorty isn't because of anything Shorty has or hasn't done, but simply because I believe Blade to be a Mafioso"

Sherlock, you've done it again. You're just trying to string anything together. That's kind of bullshit.

Here's my take:

I don't know what Blade is, but he claimed to be the Seer. He called out me and you, said we were clean. Felt re-assuring. Then he says Bek is a mafia-member. Turns out he isn't. Kinda makes you take a step back and re-analyze the situation- why would Blade do that? Was it a misunderstanding? Lots of questions to figure out today.

I just know that if the reason you think I'm not a freakin' villager is because you don't think Blade is either, that's not fair to me because simply he chose our names and no one elses.

I like this quote too- " My reasoning here is that if my hypothesis is true and correct, uncovering Shorty will expose Blade in a major way."

You are basically suggesting we take one for the team by lynching me, and then we can really get to the bottom of this and see what Blade is!

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Bearcat729

It seems to me that it is possible that Sack going for Shorty could backfire. If we all vote for Shorty and then it comes out that he was a villager it will make Sack look a little more guilty.]

If I'm wrong - and I don't think I am - but if I am wrong, then it backfires in two ways. 1) we lose an innocent villager, and 2) if it makes me look guilty enough that you guys vote for me tomorrow, we lose another. In short, we make quick enough work of ourselves that the Mafia hardly have to do anything.

So, yes, there is a risk inherent in my analysis, which is the assumption that Blade is savvy enough to make a play to get one of the Mafia inserted into a trusted position.

If Blade is Mafia but I've overestimated him and Shorty is clean, then we've nuked an innocent villager and Blade escapes.

But I really don't see the percentage in Blade making sure that the only people he labels as 'clean' really are. If he's Mafia, he's whittling down the list of suspects for us. Why narrow down the list of who might be Mafia? It's like looking at the villagers and going "Oh, they're sucking right now, let's help them out and make it interesting," and maybe in the process he blows the whole endgame.

He could be clean.

He could be dirty.

But what my vote, and others', comes down to is simply this: Shorty's innocence doesn't necessarily prove Blade's innocence, but Shorty's guilt DOES prove Blade's guilt.

The problem is that it doesn't work the other way. If we get Blade, that doesn't prove anything with regards to me or to Shorty. Voting for Shorty is just the higher percentage play in my book.

[Fouts]

If it weren't for that mistakenly posted PM by you, we could replace shorty's name with yours and your theory would be the same.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Shorty3281

I don't know what Blade is, but he claimed to be the Seer. He called out me and you, said we were clean. Felt re-assuring. Then he says Bek is a mafia-member. Turns out he isn't. Kinda makes you take a step back and re-analyze the situation- why would Blade do that? Was it a misunderstanding? Lots of questions to figure out today.

Which is precisely what led to my line of reasoning and analysis.

I just know that if the reason you think I'm not a freakin' villager is because you don't think Blade is either, that's not fair to me because simply he chose our names and no one elses.

Doesn't have to be fair if I'm right. My analysis is my reason for voting the way I am. If the others trust me and my reasoning enough to join me, so be it. If they don't, so be that, too.

I'm only posting what my gut is telling me is the case.

I like this quote too- " My reasoning here is that if my hypothesis is true and correct, uncovering Shorty will expose Blade in a major way."

You are basically suggesting we take one for the team by lynching me, and then we can really get to the bottom of this and see what Blade is!

If you're innocent, it doesn't do a bit of good as far as getting to the bottom of Blade's true role. I admit that. But what I'm saying is, if you're guilty, it means that Blade almost certainly has to be as well, since he cleared you. It's the best I have to go on right now, and it's certainly a better way to proceed than to just start voting for random villagers on absolutely no grounds whatsoever.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Fouts

If it weren't for that mistakenly posted PM by you, we could replace shorty's name with yours and your theory would be the same.

True. The theory makes sense either way, but only IF Blade is a Mafioso.

I know I'm clean. That leaves Blade, who I've suspected for a couple of days, and Shorty, who I suspect primarily because of some of the ideas that have occurred to me in recent days.

I'm no seer. I can't condemn or clear anybody. All I can do is post what I see, what I think, and why I think it.

I think they're both Mafia, but I think the safest play - just on the chance I'm wrong - is Shorty. Lynching Blade today, even though I think he's Mafia, proves absolutely nothing other than, yay, we got one. If I were to get lynched, you guys would still be facing the same doubts tomorrow: was Sack right? was one of the 'clean' guys clean and the other dirty? You lose a villager, you still haven't caught a Mafioso, and there's the chance for another death tonight.

Now consider this. If either myself or Shorty were to get lynched tomorrow, that doesn't prove anything, because there's the possibility one of us gets converted tonight.

Today, we are still what we are. If Shorty gets lynched today and is innocent, and I get lynched tomorrow and am Mafia at that point, all that means is that I may have been converted during the night actions. And, yes, the same is true in reverse.

So what it comes down to is:

Does my theory make enough sense to warrant going after either myself or Shorty?

Would I post such a theory if I were guilty, knowing it might swing attention my way?

If there's reasonable suspicion of Blade, is it better to go after him directly and worry about other potential Mafiosos later, or try and knock out one of the underpinnings first?

I believe they're both guilty. I mean, if I'm wrong, screw the possibility of getting lynched tomorrow, because if I'm wrong about this, it means we're fucked. We simply haven't got the luxury of a buffer anymore at this point.

[illinifan999]

What I'm thinking if that there is indeed a mafia seer role and blade is it, then he can find out who the cop is, everyone's roles which could really fuck us over. It is a pretty big coincidence that Bug out of everyone is chosen to be killed by the mafia and turns out to be the newspaper investigator. So I guess we have to ask ourselves do we lynch shorty, find out whether he is innocent or a mafia and give blade, a possible mafia seer, another night to check out someone with a possibly important role leading the mafia to get another "lucky" kill? That's pretty much my reasoning behind voting for blade instead of shorty right now. If blade turns out to be a mafia then we have nabbed a mafia and we probably can have shorty the next night giving us a lot better chance than we have right now.

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

I believe they're both guilty. I mean, if I'm wrong, screw the possibility of getting lynched tomorrow, because if I'm wrong about this, it means we're fucked. We simply haven't got the luxury of a buffer anymore at this point.

This I agree with, which is why we cannot make a mistake. Either you feel blade is guilty and vote for him, or you believe he is telling the truth and vote for somebody else. I think he is telling the truth, based on his viewings, therefore I choose to vote for somebody else with some guilt attached. If he is mafia, then all three of us are no longer cleared.

I'm heading out for class soon, so I won't be back before the deadline. I hope we get this one right.

[korme]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Well, I was going to vote this anyways, but just to hopefully stem a bandwagon.

Vote Shorty

The other person bug voted for was innocent and so am I.

I'm glad you aren't lazy and really want to get to the bottom of this.. oh wait. "Hopefully bandwagon votes will come! Who cares if we lynch another villager! Atleast it's not my ass!"

Originally Posted by SackAttack

If I'm wrong - and I don't think I am - but if I am wrong, then it backfires in two ways. 1) we lose an innocent villager, and 2) if it makes me look guilty enough that you guys vote for me tomorrow, we lose another. In short, we make quick enough work of ourselves that the Mafia hardly have to do anything.

So, yes, there is a risk inherent in my analysis, which is the assumption that Blade is savvy enough to make a play to get one of the Mafia inserted into a trusted position.

If Blade is Mafia but I've overestimated him and Shorty is clean, then we've nuked an innocent villager and Blade escapes.

But I really don't see the percentage in Blade making sure that the only people he labels as 'clean' really are. If he's Mafia, he's whittling down the list of suspects for us. Why narrow down the list of who might be Mafia? It's like looking at the villagers and going "Oh, they're sucking right now, let's help them out and make it interesting," and maybe in the process he blows the whole endgame.

He could be clean.

He could be dirty.

But what my vote, and others', comes down to is simply this: Shorty's innocence doesn't necessarily prove Blade's innocence, but Shorty's guilt DOES prove Blade's guilt.

The problem is that it doesn't work the other way. If we get Blade, that doesn't prove anything with regards to me or to Shorty. Voting for Shorty is just the higher percentage play in my book.

Solid wordplay Sack. Notice how you lump "Shorty's innocence doesn't necessarily prove Blade's innocence, but Shorty's guilt DOES prove Blade's guilt. " only MY name into the guilt party. But then you include yourself as you should have done in the first quote: "If we get Blade, that doesn't prove anything with regards to me or to Shorty."

What I'm getting at is that why does my guilt prove Blade's guilt but not yours? You're saying kill me and then we'll know if Blade is guilty or innocent. If we killed you, it'd prove him guilty if you were a mafioso as well. Why are you trying to make it like I'm the only possible person that Blade was lying about, which he wasn't, which makes it even more frustrating. I'm starting to think you might be the Don's Son.

Originally Posted by Fouts

If it weren't for that mistakenly posted PM by you, we could replace shorty's name with yours and your theory would be the same.

Exactly.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

So, yes, there is a risk inherent in my analysis, which is the assumption that Blade is savvy enough to make a play to get one of the Mafia inserted into a trusted position.

If Blade is Mafia but I've overestimated him and Shorty is clean, then we've nuked an innocent villager and Blade escapes.

But I really don't see the percentage in Blade making sure that the only people he labels as 'clean' really are. If he's Mafia, he's whittling down the list of suspects for us. Why narrow down the list of who might be Mafia? It's like looking at the villagers and going "Oh, they're sucking right now, let's help them out and make it interesting," and maybe in the process he blows the whole endgame.

He could be clean.

He could be dirty.

But what my vote, and others', comes down to is simply this: Shorty's innocence doesn't necessarily prove Blade's innocence, but Shorty's guilt DOES prove Blade's guilt.

The problem is that it doesn't work the other way. If we get Blade, that doesn't prove anything with regards to me or to Shorty. Voting for Shorty is just the higher percentage play in my book.

Here is my problem with this, if you vote Shorty and he's clean it proves nothing, however if you vote Blade and he's dirty then we have something to work with. If Blade is clean then it saves us killing Shorty.

I will say this right now, I'M NOT VOTING BLADE 2Nite, even though he is in my top 2 suspects, b/c I don't think we can risk losing a seer right now. However if it came down between Shorty and Blade, I would vote Blade.

Your theory is that Blade is mafia and that some people he has thrown in there are mafia too, but some are clean. The safe play would be to vote Blade, and if he's dirty you vote Shorty next time, if he's clean then it clears EVERYONE he has said is clean. Either way we learn something. If you lynch Shorty and he's clean we learn nothing, Blade could still be mafia, but Shorty could have been one of the innocent ones.

[korme]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

I believe they're both guilty. I mean, if I'm wrong, screw the possibility of getting lynched tomorrow, because if I'm wrong about this, it means we're fucked. We simply haven't got the luxury of a buffer anymore at this point.

Hell yea! Let's risk the entire game on Sack's well-thought out hunch!

[SnDvls]

all I know is I'm more confused now than I was when we started.

1) Believe Blade is a villager and is telling the truth (Clears Shorty, Sack, & Fouts)
2) Believe Blade is a mafia and is lying (puts a ? on all three)

It looks pretty simple right? How can you say that by killing one in the clear sets everyone else as good/evil? How can we lose a big role like Blade's?

The witness could view a kill - he's dead
The newspaper reporter could view one person - he's dead

could there be three seer roles for the villagers?

[dubb93]

I believe they're both guilty. I mean, if I'm wrong, screw the possibility of getting lynched tomorrow, because if I'm wrong about this, it means we're fucked. We simply haven't got the luxury of a buffer anymore at this point.

Yes if you are wrong we are fucked, that is why you start at the top and work your way down, vote Blade this time if you must and then vote Shorty....if you vote Shorty first and Blade is telling the truth then we lose 2 villagers[b/c u will still vote Blade next time] to prove that point instead of just 1.

[illinifan999]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

could there be three seer roles for the villagers?

That's what I'm having trouble believing. He claims to be a seer for the villagers but so far we've lost 2 key players with viewing capabilities and we have nothing except his say-so on clearing 3 players. I'm thinking there is 2 seer roles for villagers, 1 mafia seer. And since both of our seer's have been killed off by the mafia at the start of the game......

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by Shorty3281

Why are you trying to make it like I'm the only possible person that Blade was lying about, which he wasn't, which makes it even more frustrating. I'm starting to think you might be the Don's Son.

Wow, now that would be a brilliant play if he were. He would have the safety of his PM, plus the viewing of blade. Perfect.

[Schmidty]

Wow!! I neve thought that Shorty would become the next RealDeal!! You pay the price when you get too emotional in these games, as I can attest to.

Vote Shorty

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Wow!! I neve thought that Shorty would become the next RealDeal!! You pay the price when you get too emotional in these games, as I can attest to.

Vote Shorty

Nothing personal, by the way Shane.

[SackAttack]

[quote=Shorty3281] Solid wordplay Sack. Notice how you lump "Shorty's innocence doesn't necessarily prove Blade's innocence, but Shorty's guilt DOES prove Blade's guilt. " only MY name into the guilt party. But then you include yourself as you should have done in the first quote: "If we get Blade, that doesn't prove anything with regards to me or to Shorty."

*I* know I'm innocent.

I *don't* know that about you.

If I'm trying to explain why I'm voting for you, why further confuse the issue?

After tonight, the ultimate status of the lynchee proves absolutely nothing with regards to Blade. How's that? Whether it's you or me, if we don't get a Mafioso tonight, then whatever happens tomorrow is meaningless because if we WERE both innocent, there's the potential for one of us to get converted tonight after the other one is lynched. Which still leaves questions about Blade.

The problem is that if we lynch Blade tonight and get lucky, it's still down to you and me with no real idea of where to go from there, and we give the Mafia an extra day to keep whittling away.

What I'm getting at is that why does my guilt prove Blade's guilt but not yours?

Do you really think Blade would be foolish enough to put the majority of the Mafia in his same circle of trust, knowing that if he was found out and lynched, the others would be suspects as well? If he did that, and got caught at it, it would basically gut the Mafia. Why would he do that?

You're saying kill me and then we'll know if Blade is guilty or innocent.

It can only prove him conclusively guilty. Not conclusively innocent.

If we killed you, it'd prove him guilty if you were a mafioso as well. Why are you trying to make it like I'm the only possible person that Blade was lying about, which he wasn't, which makes it even more frustrating.

If I believe Blade is guilty - which I do - and I believe that one of his two 'clean' nominees is actually dirty, but I happen to be one of them, in which direction am I going to look? I know I'm innocent. Even if I weren't, why would I vote for myself? It boils down to either my hunch is correct, or I'm completely off-base.

Posting this hunch if I'm guilty is a terrible idea, because it lets people think exactly what you're thinking: "Maybe Sack is the guilty one!" Like Bek's Mafia joke, it would be a poor play that made absolutely no sense if true.

Maybe I'm wrong. I freely admit that's a possibility. But can anybody show me a scenario in which Blade is not only guilty, but actively clearing true villagers of any Mafia ties rather than trying to use his role to protect his teammates somehow?

[korme]

I'm trying to save my ass. Heh, I guess I am getting too emotional, how? What would you do if you were the prime canidate in this situation, Schmidty? Have a few drinks and laugh it off? I know you too well. You'd be whining your ass off. And how could anyone blame you.. afterall, this is a game of survival, if you don't do anything you can to prove your innocence, then you ought not to be playing.

[korme]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Nothing personal, by the way Shane.

Wow, good one

[dubb93]

OK, these last few minutes have made things clear to me....

Original Mafia--Schmidty, Bearcat

Mafia Seer--Blade

Son of the Don--Sackattack

prehaps there is no need to re-read through the whole thread and do a complete analysis, consider all 4 of you called out, bad plays 2day guys you almost had us....

[korme]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

*I* know I'm innocent.

I *don't* know that about you.

Heh. I know I'm innocent. And I certainly don't know about you anymore. Trying so hard to kill off a person in the same predicament as you.

Do you really think Blade would be foolish enough to put the majority of the Mafia in his same circle of trust, knowing that if he was found out and lynched, the others would be suspects as well? If he did that, and got caught at it, it would basically gut the Mafia. Why would he do that?

I never insinuated he was grouping more than one. If I did that, I'd be framining my own name. Way to think that one through, Sack.

If I believe Blade is guilty - which I do - and I believe that one of his two 'clean' nominees is actually dirty, but I happen to be one of them, in which direction am I going to look? I know I'm innocent. Even if I weren't, why would I vote for myself? It boils down to either my hunch is correct, or I'm completely off-base.

Your logic has holes in it, it doesn't check out. Since you believe 100% Blade is a member of the mafia, why risk taking me out? I still don't even know how to vote, because I believe Blade was telling the truth about his Seer role. Otherwise, I'd be voting for you right now. But that doesn't make much sense for me since I think Blade is telling the truth.