FOF2K4 : "Is this fun or what" ?!

[Darkiller]

Currently in the 3rd year of my new Real49ersFootball 2K4 career, which means that I have just completed my second FOF2004 Draft, I look at the "results" on the roster page (which is about 14 young draftees) and think :

have I lost it or what ?

Despite my Draft Grades (B- in both years), fact is, among the 14 players that I have chosen in my first two years, I would say only two of them (the 1st rounders) look like that will be fine contributors (and hey, I'm not talking about superstar material by any means). The 12 others are poor to average players at best.
For instance, last year's 1st round pick (#4) was the franchise QB that I had been looking for : Aaron Tipton. A pretty good rookie season (he was exciting to watch down the strech) which bolds well for the future. He's now rated 55/80 at the beginning of his 2nd Pro season. Somehow, his "rating bars" are good but not great.
he doesn't seem to be (or at least, he doesn't look like) you typical Franchise stud QB but should be a good one. I'm hopeful.

So is that what I have to look for now in FOF2004 ? good players instead of great ones ?

Obviously there are much less talented players available (at least through the draft) than in FOF2 but what strikes me the most is the uncertainty of it. Even with coaches and scouts both rated very good at a particular position, I've been in for quite some surprises after I made the selection.
For example, in my 2nd draft, I used the #12 selection on Guard Clay Fairbanks, rated 38/82 (the 2nd highest ranked player at his position in the draft / Volatility 61 /). He was a need pick so I was glad to select him #12.
Just after I called his name, the potential rating droped from 82 to 75. surprise..surprise...of course, I was again a little bit disapointed after traning camp, when his true ratings unveiled and they were obviously not as good as I expected...

And that is the good part.
The bad part is the 12 other players drafted over the last two years. My first reaction was "I couldn't be more wrong" making those selections. They all -look- terrible !

The sad thing in all this is that I have to rely quite heavily on Free Agent acquisitions and Traded players to make up for those defficient draftees. This costs me an awful lot of money and my cap situation is not pretty. I know I have to build through the draft, I WANT to build through the draft...it's just that my current drafts have been everyting but satisfying.

Maybe these young guys will turn to be OK, maybe they'll improve, maybe I'll improve...maybe...well let's play the game !

[sachmo71]

I'm still afraid of playing the free agent market too heavily...because if you break the bank and don't make it to the big game, you can end up screwed for a few years!

And I wouldn't have it any other way...

[fantastic flying froggies]

I've just had a draft grade of A+ in my current dynasty. Ah ! I've only bothered to sign 2 of my 7 draftees (1st rounder and 7th), the others were way too bad to sign at those signing prices !

[Daimyo]

Back in FOF2 nearly every player on your team (including backups) could pretty easily be maxed out. In FOF2k4, there might be two or three maxed out players in the entire league. Its definately a far different game.

[fantastic flying froggies]

And much more realistic, IMHO.

[FBPro]

One thing about the draft is you never know now how players will turn out.....very nice.

[Bee]

Originally posted by FBPro
One thing about the draft is you never know now how players will turn out.....very nice.

But you have enough information to make an informed "guess", which is just wonderful IMO.

[FBPro]

Exactly.....

[Pyser]

is anyone making good guesses though? im getting hammered.

[FrogMan]

Pyser, I'm getting hammered too... I'm writing all my draft picks with which round they were picked and two/three seasons after most draft, the only thing left is usually the 1st rounder, maybe the secound round pick...

FM

[rjolley]

Have you ever looked around the league to see if the other players are still around? Maybe they were late bloomers that became stars 2, 3, 4, or more years down the road.

[Samdari]

Originally posted by Pyser
is anyone making good guesses though? im getting hammered.

Me too. I paid through the nose to get the best scout in the league, someone who is excellent at both QB and young talent, and his evaluations have resulted in spectacularly bad QB draft picks. I think there is not quite enough information given, as this combination should produce at least a 50% success rate on evaluating QBs correctly (IMO).

In a three year experiment, my excellent/excellent scout was 21/21 in overrating QBs during the draft. I drafted 21 QBs in 3 years, and all 21 had their post training camp future ratings below the bottom of the predraft blue "uncertainty" bars. While I don't want any draft information to give me a certainty of success, I am finding the to ratings matter very little, the draft feels completely random to me. The pendulum has swung too far in my opinion.

[Ben E Lou]

Gotta disagree sam. I'm beginning to see some trends in what to look for in the draft. Nothing that is "automatic," by any means (which would be a bad thing imho), but right now 8 of 18 returning starters from a Super Bowl team are guys that I drafted midway through the 3rd round or later, and i've got a 2nd-year undrafted FA QB who looks like he's going to break out and become a starter eventually.

[FrogMan]

Originally posted by rjolley
Have you ever looked around the league to see if the other players are still around? Maybe they were late bloomers that became stars 2, 3, 4, or more years down the road.

That's a good point. No, I have not done that. I will look into it tonight...

FM

[FBPro]

I'm making some decent choices, had two gems that I did grab in the 1st round of two different drafts retire this past off season. Both mad "all league" teams, were probably HOF players and were "career" Falcons. Back to the drawing board.

[corbes]

I'm pretty hit or miss in the draft. I've traded up get a studly WR (Reggie Bruce) who is 2nd best in the league after 5 years...

I picked a QB (Sherman Morton) in the first round with 90+ ratings across the board, played him a ton, and he got up to 50 and then sort of petered out... I traded him to Buffalo for like a 3rd round pick, and he's been a mediocre qb for them...

Drafted another QB (Wade Roberts) the following year, wound up having to start him as a rookie because Donovan McNabb hurt his knee (AGAIN!!!) in the preseason and wound up returning with ratings in the high teens... Wade is a pretty good QB, but he never would have started on my old FOF1 and FOF2 teams... but he's the best I got, now, which is realistic and nice...

Picked a center (Don Zumdahl) in the 7th round who wound up 4th on the Green Page, has been a starter for several years and is one of the tops in the league...

Drafted waaayyy too many RBs (Kenny Jacobs, Blake Covington, et al) in the second and third round, only to leave them inactive for one year, give them a trial at 3rd RB in their second and then just cut them after that, because they're horrible...

Drafted a DL (Tim Baptiste) who became the cornerstone of my defense at 1(4) one year...

and drafted another DL (Rex Mason) who was dead cap weight at 1(20something) the next...

all in all, I really like the "volatility" of it all, so to speak. I've developed some strategies (like looking for guys with High Current/Low Potential/High Volatility). And I have really no idea whether those strategies are working or not.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Without really checking closely, my perception is that I've had decent to good success with the draft. But this thread made me curious, so I decided to look at how I actually managed to build the 2013 SB champion Richmond Travelers (won it all in the first season after moving from Atlanta).

I'll highlight the starters/key reserves
Pos - Name - How Acquired - Draft position

QB - Kerry Alimonti -- FA 2001 - TB 1st round/#30 2006
QB - Charles Sprotte - Draft 2009 - 1st/#2
RB - Xavier Burgos - Draft 2008 - 1st/#4
RB - Maurice Morris - FA 2012 - Sea 2nd/#22 2002
RB - Julio Ramsey - FA 2009 - Dal (now LA) 1st/#11*
suffered injury during MVP season 2008, I signed his reduced self as a reserve
FB - Deion Dalzell - Draft 2013 - 4th/#8
TE - Terrell Snell - Draft 2012 - 2nd/#4
TE - Dan Weaver - FA 2010 & 2013 - Det 6th/#6 2006
FL - Geoff Simmons - Draft 2007 - 2nd/#8
SE - Koren Robinson - FA 2001 - Sea 1st/#9 2001
FL - Howard Blake - FA 2010 - SF 2nd/#17 2005
SE/KR - Ted Michi - FA 2010 - Det 6th/#24 2008
C - Clarence Garner - FA 2012 - Undrafted ! 2003
back to back All-League 1st team for me
C - Winfred Thomas - Draft 2010 - 2nd/#3
LG - Chuck Griffith - FA 2008 - Ten 1st/#24 2004
RG - Harvey Bryner - FA 2009 - NE 4th/#2 2005
was a 100/100 blocker for several years, now a 91/96
RG - Thurman Weber - FA 2007 - TB 2nd/#32 2004
LT - Terry Alcott - Draft 2007 - 1st/#12
finally made All-League 1st team this year after winning Strongest Man in '08 & '12
RT - Todd Fordham - FA 2010 - Undrafted 2003
[i] has started 166 games with three teams in 11 seasons
P - Shane Lechler - FA 2009 - Oak 5th/#13 2000
K - Seth Marler - FA 2006 - Undrafted 2003
2-time All-Leage 1st team

That's 21 offensive players, only 7 from my own draft.
This is getting way longer than I thought, so I'll condense the defense.

DE - 1st/#8 2010 (#1 pass rusher)
DE - 1st/#4 2012 (#2 pass rusher)
DT - 1st/#21 2013 (
DT - 4th/#6 2013
ILB - 1st/#7 2011 (leading tackler)
CB - 2nd/#25 2012 (busting after an injury)
CB - 6th/#23 2012 (dime back)
SS - 2nd/#7 2006 (part-time starter)
FS - 1st/#6 2013 (rookie starter)
7 FA signings, including two undrafted eventual All-Leaguers
1 stud OLB by trade
That's 9 of17 key defenders via the draft.

16 of 38 key players drafted, 21 via FA, 1 by trade.

Bottom line -- I ain't drafting nearly as well as I thought.

[Passacaglia]

Well, I guess part of this is because my computer is still in crash mode, but I've been playing FOF almost exclusively setting up for the eNFL. It's been a ton of fun, and I haven't even played a preseason game yet!

[Sidhe]

I kept a list of my draftees for a few years, and it has turned out to be a little like a lottery. One thing, the potential and actual ratings can change from year to year. A 6th round DT was rated something in the 40s but in his fourth year (right after I extended his contract!) he jumped to a 79. That was excellent.

I have had the major busts -- both were 2nd rounders, dropping from 60s to single digits.. have had many disappointments, but also several real surprises. For instance, I went into a draft picking 3rd. There were two great DTs sitting there, and I really *really* needed a DT. There was also a highly rated QB, but I didn't really need one. Of course, when my pick came around, the two DTs were off the board. The QB was rated an 80 -- I had to go with the value pick, hey I could just trade him, right?

He jumped to a 98 right after I pressed the draft button. And then, my franchise QB of 16 years (who was still awesome) got hurt in the pre-season, and wouldn't you know it? That rookie I was forced to pick started the whole season, and won top rookie and MVP!

I love that story.

So the value is there in the draft, but nothing is certain. Even the guys who look like busts are uncertain -- they might turn it around in a year or two, if you can afford to hold on to them.

[Honolulu Blue]

I've done fairly well so far, but the talent level in the drafts seems to be lower than that of any other FOF game and (I'm guessing) lower than that of the default or real name rosters.

I have found that the best way to go is to draft for need and use the free agency market to plug gaping holes.

[sachmo71]

In my first two years, my 4th overall picked QB turned out to be rather ordinary, with a 54 potential, I believe. However, the next year I was able to get the 10th pick and grabbed a stud MLB...almost maximized. He makes me excited to be an owner! My second round picks haven't been so great, but I keep them around as backups., because you never know when someone may break out.

[Pyser]

1st rounders have been no problem for me. at worst, they seem to stay very good.

i have yet to pick a 2nd rounder who stayed anywhere near his projections. the rest is equally a crapshoot. i dont understand why round 1 is easy, and the rest is impossible, but there it is.

[Sidhe]

I have to say I've noticed that 2nd rounders are almost worthless.. I thought that was just my luck, but are we seeing a pattern here?

I have many 3rd-6th rounders that have surprised me, but almost never a 2nd rounder.

[Ben E Lou]

Where my 2021 starters came from:

PICKED UP AS ROOKIES BY ME
1st: 5
2nd: 2
3rd: 3
4th: 4
5th: 0
6th: 0
7th: 0
Undrafted: 3
Total: 17

OTHER TEAM'S PICKS
1st: 2
2nd: 0
3rd: 0
4th: 2
5th: 1
6th: 0
7th: 0
Total: 5

This team went 12-4, and lost in the Division Final (QB injury in the penultimate regular season game.) It had a Roster value of 100 (78 was the next-closest.) I'm pretty pleased with my rookie acquistion.

[Vikings13]

Darkiller,
Keep in mind most QBs take a few years to develop. If he's rated as an 80 possible now, and he doesn't bust, you're going to have a star on your hands in a few years...

[Buzzbee]

My experience has been mixed. I seem to suck at evaluating linemen, both offensive and defensive. I have had one good pick (1st rounder) and the rest have been average to downright bad. I've been pretty good at evaluating linebackers, most of them fall somewhere around projections with a few dropping off noticeably.

I've had the best luck at drafting receivers. 2 of the three I've drafted have developed past projections and have gone on to be sigificantly red (more than 50 in most categories). QB is another position at which I've done pretty well. No superstars, but players living up to their potential.

Hmmmm. As I'm typing this, I'm wondering if "skill" players are more likely to boom and regular players like linemen are more likely to bust.

SkyDog, if you're bored and want to run some tests, it might be good to know if particular positions or groups are more likely to boom or bust.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Buzzbee
Hmmmm. As I'm typing this, I'm wondering if "skill" players are more likely to boom and regular players like linemen are more likely to bust.

That hasn't been my experience. Of the starters I mentioned, here are the ones who could be classified as booms, at least to some degree.

WLB Clyde Guthrie--4(22)--(69/69)
C Lorenzo Patton--4(9)--(60/60)
T Lewis Krzyzanowski--4(5)--(60/60)
TE Eric Robinson--4(14)--(72/72)
RB Earnest Cooper--FA--(42/42)

I haven't noticed any predisposition toward skill players or linemen breaking out (or busting).

[JonInMiddleGA]

Buzzbee -- FWIW, I'm starting to believe there's a lot of importance to be placed on strength when evaluating young linemen. I mean, that seems obvious I guess, but after watching a dozen seasons of linemen come & go, strength is becoming more & more important to me, much closer to run & pass blocking characteristics.

[cthomer5000]

I've been getting absolutely hammered in the draft. Most my first rounders have worked out, but beyond that I'm almost batting zero. I will regularly select what look like promising second rounders, only to have them completely bust over 1-2 seasons, or lack the vital skills I needed in the first place. It's forced me to lean on middle-aged FA pickups much more, and draft picks less. Often I'll find myself so uncertain after the 2nd round that I will trade out of the rest of the draft for a future pick (something like my 4th-7th for a future 3rd or 2nd). Of course, this just delays the process.

Recently though, I really hit on back-to-back LB's (OLB and ILB) that should be my defensive anchors for 10+ seasons.

[cthomer5000]

I had one pretty interesting case of a center that I drafted very highly. I was reaching at that point anyway, so I took this super-stud center with the intent of moving him to tackle. I did so, and he appeared to be average at best.

After 3-4 years he was still riding the bench (at tackle). However, this last season he was forced into the lineup due to injury. I played him out of position at center (remember, i moved him from center to tackle), and he went on to all-league honors. It was a bit curious to me, since the starting center appeared better in every way, yet hadn't even made 2nd team in his 3 years as starter.

I don't know if i have a point here, but it made for an interersting story. Maybe I should have never moved him from center.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Buzzbee
SkyDog, if you're bored and want to run some tests, it might be good to know if particular positions or groups are more likely to boom or bust.

I've run some tests already (my wife was out of town Fri-Sun), and I believe I have a handle on some drafting issues. Unfortunately, one of the prices the community will pay for having multiplayer is that some of the most critical discoveries and impressions probably won't be as readily passed along (at least when they are made by a competitive S.O.B like me). Notice how few game plans have been submitted? I think there's a reason for that. The Buggles would put it this way:

Multiplayer killed the game planning thread.
Multiplayer killed the game planning thread.
Sometimes secrets must stay in your head.....

[cuervo72]

Originally posted by JonInMiddleGA
Buzzbee -- FWIW, I'm starting to believe there's a lot of importance to be placed on strength when evaluating young linemen. I mean, that seems obvious I guess, but after watching a dozen seasons of linemen come & go, strength is becoming more & more important to me, much closer to run & pass blocking characteristics.

That's what I've been moving towards too when drafting. I know its antectotal, but I drafted a lineman in FOF4 who was good with strength and had most of his limited potential filled, and he got a nice bump (not huge) after training camp.

I put him into a csv file to import to v5 based on his stats as my scout saw them (still not fantastic), and he is progressing nicely from there in a test career. I'm curious to see if he will do the same when I restart my career for real, or if it was random chance (probably random).

[Buzzbee]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Unfortunately, one of the prices the community will pay for having multiplayer is that some of the most critical discoveries and impressions probably won't be as readily passed along (at least when they are made by a competitive S.O.B like me). i]

Why Dya think I asked!

[Samdari]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Gotta disagree sam. I'm beginning to see some trends in what to look for in the draft. Nothing that is "automatic," by any means (which would be a bad thing imho), but right now 8 of 18 returning starters from a Super Bowl team are guys that I drafted midway through the 3rd round or later, and i've got a 2nd-year undrafted FA QB who looks like he's going to break out and become a starter eventually.

I fail to see how that proves anything though SkyDog. The situation you are describing is not out of the realm of possibility from real talent being randomly distributed independent of the ratings shown on draft day. If you can do this consistently in 15 careers, maybe you are on to something.

Maybe I have just not found the same keys as you, but right now, I feel like every pick I make has a 80% chance of being significantly below the draft day rating, a 18% chance of living up to it, and a 2% chance of improving on it. I would think that having great scouts and diligently looking over all the data would raise my success rate a bit, but it does not seem to.

As a counterpoint to your experience, I recently tried a tear down/build back up scenario, trading my stars such that I had 3 first rounders 3 years in a row. After training camp, only one of them had a future potential rating of above 'good'. That career is now in the trash bin.

I realize my information is like yours - anecdotal, and thus no more definitive proof. But the caliber of my draftees sure has felt completely uncorrelated to their predraft ratings. It would be somewhat difficult to evaluate quantitatively too, since the uncertainty blue does not have an enumerated max/min, so the numbers I would want to quantify would be largely guessed at.

[mauchow]

I finally found what I've been looking for since this thread started.. A 3rd round draft pick who's going to be a stud!! I'll post it in a second.. If anybody knows how to post the picture on here, let me know w/in a minute, otherwise I'm going to put it on my website for now. Thanks

Mr. Quarterbackhttp://www.geocities.com/mauboy1982/QB.html

[Franklinnoble]

Only his second year, dude.... and I'm pretty sure you just jinxed him.

[mauchow]

I hope so.. he's not on my team

[TroyF]

I've been working at the draft pretty hard. I've been getting better at it, slowly but surely.

The second round has also been my abyss. I can't seem to make a solid second round pick to save my life. 3rd-7th? I'm finding that by combining good speed/strength/intelligence numbers, a good scout and scouring for individual skills (ie: Fullback run blocking) that I can come up with some solid players in the later rounds along with an occasional sleeper.

My best example would have been a DT I picked in the sixth round. His blue bar showed he was great at run defense and average at play diagnosis. His ratings were 17/24 with a volitility of 56. He had a pretty good strength number and average brainpower. I took him hoping he's end up being a decent 3rd/4th tackle who could stuff the run a bit.

He ended up being a hall of famer with nearly maxed out ratings after year 4.

Do I have 15 years worth of draft data to back anything up? No way. I do think I'm getting the hang of it and I do think there are ways you can improve your odds of success.

TroyF

[Daimyo]

I hardly even look at potential anymore in the mid to late rounds. In this game it seems that guys who don't get playing time don't succeed no matter their potential and guys who do play can become solid starters even without a lot of draft day talent. Once I hit the mid-3rd or so I start looking mostly at current ratings, volatility and the raw abilities (strength, speed, etc) as the key ratings.

[Front Office Midget]

My first two drafts have looked like this:

Year One:
1st Round- A bust Guard, whose blue bars dropped after the draft. Then, I couldn't sign him and he re-entered the next year. He was a 5th round pick that year... what was I thinking drafting him in the first round?
2nd Round- Disappointing Tackle (24/41) I was really only drafting out of need here though, and hoping for a boom 10/23 KRB in 2 years as a backup
3rd Round- Excellent Punter (87/87)
4th Round- Very good MLB (52/73) he wasn't a boom, it's just that in my fictional league, ILB was heavily plentiful at the start of the career so no one needed to draft one
6th Round- Worthless RB with 2 carries in 2 years, of 7 and 3 yards.
7th Round- Decent RB (36/41) Has started 10 games over 2 years... overall he has 1192 yards, 4.3 average, and 6 TDs in 2 years. He also had one 184 yard game

Year Two:
1st Round- Cornerback I was looking for (20/60) Very good ratings across the board, 1 start and 1 INT in his first year. Definite future starter, and what I would expect with the 21st pick.
2nd Round- Meciore Safety (26/48) who will probably end up being a starter, with a high run defense rating of 74 and fair ratings pretty much elsewhere, with a 58 INT rating. 1 pick in his first year.
3rd Round- Good Tackle pick (26/46)- with a 59 run block, 40 everywhere else, has potential to start.
4th Round- Decent Guard Prospect (17/49) with minimal strength, but high running/passing ratings (64 each).
4th Round- Good QB Prospect (34/67) I was a little surprised to see him still around. Bound to be a starter some day.
5th Round- Bad FB (20/38) Good run blocker and a TON of power inside... but minimal elsewhere.
6th Round- Mediocre QB Prospect (17/45)

[oykib]

I think that the key is looking at the various metrics (speed, strength, agility). I've had decent success in the 2nd round. Actually, I'm doing much better with my second-rounders than first-rounders.

Also look at the players size and don't be afraid to draft with the idea of changing the players position. If you get an inside linebacker who is light (220-235 lbs.) and has a low Run defense rating, but good speed and agility metrics, draft him to play OLB. I say the same thing about corners and safeties.