The Trump Presidency – 2016

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

It's not mutually exclusive.

"Wishes ill" is a nebulous phrase and I can see where it is subject to many different interpretations. It's not like Iran that wishes us ill but if you do not believe China is looking to dominate us economically, geopolitically, militarily etc. then that is the root of our differences. Without this common baseline belief, we are never going to agree much re: China.

Interestingly, I was googling on what Dem candidates would do about China and came to this article. FWIW, I think it presents our 2 differing sides pretty well (in bold).

How Will Democrats Deal With China? - The Atlantic

The disagreements and discussions of the 2020 campaign offer an opportunity to forge a consensus on how Washington can contend with Chinese power.

Right now, there is none. Though politicians in both major parties have come to perceive China as a threat to American strategic and economic interests, they don’t agree on what approach is best to defend those interests.

(Leave the halls of Congress and even that bit of accord crumbles. Scores of China specialists from academic, business, and policy circles recently signed an open letter stating that “we do not believe Beijing is an economic enemy or an existential national security threat that must be confronted in every sphere.”)

More details on the letter referred above

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN1TU0XL

The draft letter comes as tensions rise between the world’s two largest economies over a raft of issues. They include a trade war in which the sides have slapped tariffs on billions of dollars on each others’ imports, U.S. charges of massive Chinese espionage, and a Chinese military modernization program that threatens the U.S. edge in the Western Pacific.

The United States and China, meeting on Saturday on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Japan, agreed to restart talks on ending the trade battle.

“Although we are very deeply troubled by Beijing’s recent behavior, we also believe that many U.S. actions are contributing to the downward spiral in relations,” said the draft of the open letter to Trump and Congress signed by some 80 experts.

“U.S. efforts to treat China as an enemy and decouple it from the global economy will damage America’s international role and reputation and undermine the economic interests of all nations,” it said. “The U.S. fear that Beijing will replace the U.S. as the global leader is exaggerated.”

Trump’s 2018 U.S. National Security Strategy calls China a strategic competitor that seeks to replace the United States as the pre-eminent global power.

They are wrong of course (!) but wanted to share as it was timely to our discussion.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Just goes to show there was wide support against it - from the socialist left, to the moderate left and to the crazy Trump right.

There's not much from the Dem candidates on China so far (other than for Biden's misguided comment). Looking forward to hear the different strategies.

Trumps stance isn't on the right. Protectionism and tariffs are really far left economic theory. The right was all about free trade until they had to pretend they weren't a year and a half ago.

[ISiddiqui]

Plenty of far right leaders have been protectionist. It's a core tenant of Fascism (autarky). The biggest voices against the EU is Europe are right wing parties.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Goes hand in hand. The people paying the tarriff revenue are US importers, who will pass that cost onto consumers. It's basically a tax on American companies who import certain items from China.

Yes exactly. China ultimately is not paying for these tariffs but we all are with the costs of the tariffs being added to the goods by US distributor before they come to us. Even Fox News says this:

Fox News Host Neil Cavuto Tells Viewers Trump Is Wrong: ‘China Isn’t Paying These Tariffs. You Are.’

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Just goes to show there was wide support against it - from the socialist left, to the moderate left and to the crazy Trump right.

And you also had wide support for it from the moderate left (Obama) and moderate right (McCain). If McConnell allowed it to go forward for a vote, it probably would have passed the Senate.

Interestingly I was reading that the UK has had talks with the other members who went ahead with the TPP (now called CPTPP, which also suspended all the provisions mandated by the US in negotiations) in order to join it after Brexit.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Interestingly I was reading that the UK has had talks with the other members who went ahead with the TPP (now called CPTPP, which also suspended all the provisions mandated by the US in negotiations) in order to join it after Brexit.

I guess it would be smart for UK to join/create/strengthen non-EU trade relationships but Asia seems non-intuitive to me because its so far away.

https://www.businessinsider.com/brex...nership-2019-2

One of Australia's most senior politicians on Sunday poured cold water on proposals from the UK to swiftly join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) trade agreement post-Brexit, but did admit the country stands ready to "fast track" some form of deal with Britain.

Speaking to the Financial Times, Australia's trade minister Simon Birmingham said that it was unlikely the UK will have any likelihood of joining CPTPP in the short-to-medium term, largely because it is not in the Pacific, making the political nature of the UK's joining difficult.

"Obviously it's a statement of fact that the UK is not within the Pacific," Birmingham told the FT.

I know 50-60% of the US wails about Trump but I wonder, long term, if Brexit is a more significant negative (I assume) event for the Brits than Trump is for many in the US.

I like to think we can overcome, ignore, put to bed etc. the negatives of Trump over a generation of 10-20 years whereas the implications of Brexit will stay with UK for a much longer time.

[Edward64]

Not a good time to be a soybean farmer and no idea if Trump is willing/able to continue subsidizing the farmers to the degree he has been.

What do farmers do with all the excess? Do they sell it at a discount domestically (I like tofu) and plan to grow something else the next year?

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

The Chinese government has asked its state-owned enterprises to suspend purchases of U.S. agricultural products, people familiar with the situation said. Also, privately run Chinese crushers that had received retaliatory-tariff waivers on American soybeans from Beijing have stopped buying the commodity due to uncertainty over trade relations, other people said.

Chinese buyers have turned to South American soybeans and the Asian nation said it doesn’t rule out for now taxing American agricultural goods that were traded after Aug. 3, the Commerce Ministry said in a statement on its website. The ministry also confirmed relevant Chinese firms have stopped purchasing American agricultural goods.

[RainMaker]

The soybeans have crushed the farms here in downstate Illinois. Not sure what they do with the excess. Feds will just have to keep cutting welfare checks.

Not a good day for the markets either.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

The soybeans have crushed the farms here in downstate Illinois. Not sure what they do with the excess. Feds will just have to keep cutting welfare checks.

Not a good day for the markets either.

As good a time as any for a short recession and (hopefully) a more major one for China.

I think earliest it can be declared is 2Q, 2020 because it needs 2 quarters of negative GDP which would be perfect to hurt Trump in the election. Say all you want about his negatives but if economy is booming I think it significantly increases Trump's odds.

Also, we're overdue so that'll get the monkey off our backs.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

The soybeans have crushed the farms here in downstate Illinois. Not sure what they do with the excess. Feds will just have to keep cutting welfare checks.

Not a good day for the markets either.

How farmer trade aid undermines the US in world markets | TheHill

Interesting read on the downside of the Feds continuing to cut those welfare checks.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Edward64

As good a time as any for a short recession and (hopefully) a more major one for China.

WTF?

Real people suffer in a recession. It will happen eventually, but cheering it on, especially cheering on increased suffering for the Chinese people is cruel and immoral.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

WTF?

Real people suffer in a recession. It will happen eventually, but cheering it on, especially cheering on increased suffering for the Chinese people is cruel and immoral.

You are wasting your breathe. Par for course.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

WTF?

Real people suffer in a recession. It will happen eventually, but cheering it on, especially cheering on increased suffering for the Chinese people is cruel and immoral.

With China striking back today, much that I read says they are playing the long game and waiting for the next election. This likely means a lot of uncertainty and pain until then ... unless someone blinks.

If you agree that a good economy significantly increases Trump's odds then I'm picking between the lesser of 2 evils.

Re: China, you are right wishing suffering on the Chinese people is cruel and immoral. However, I am wishing much more pressure on the Chinese leadership (vs people) to effect change.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Not a good time to be a soybean farmer and no idea if Trump is willing/able to continue subsidizing the farmers to the degree he has been.

What do farmers do with all the excess? Do they sell it at a discount domestically (I like tofu) and plan to grow something else the next year?

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

I imagine the beans will be processed (soybeans will mold after 6 months in storage) into things that can be stored longer because you have to have an actual buyer to diminish a stockpile. Mostly made into animal feeds. A good chunk of our soybean production used to feed China's pigs. Rumors have China's hog population cut in 50% this year due to disease so the prediction that we'd fill in demand elsewhere globally has not come to fruition because global demand isn't there. In the meantime, Bolsonaro in Brazil is falling over himself in glee and chopping down rainforest as fast as he can. By the time China rebuilds its hog population, Brazil will likely be the country to fill China's soybean needs.

As for other crops, wheat was ruined for American farmers in an eerily similar circumstance by the Carter grain embargo. By the time we took off the embargo, other countries ramped up their own production (Brazil by chopping down rain forest) and filled our place. Corn has been hurt by the Trump admin granting gas blenders waivers so they don't have to use ethanol. Ethanol plants are shutting down. It'll take farmers getting creative and that's not something they generally are good at in terms of alternative crops. Of course switching to a completely different crop also required a whole new line of not so cheap equipment in order to plant/manage/harvest new crop. Finally, you have lenders that are either completely avoiding or shutting down their ag lending divisions or at the very least being very skittish of anything agriculture right now. The guy who rents our land did put in some potatoes this year, not sure if that's a winner or not.

The American Farm Bureau had a few tweets whining about how this trade war hurts the farmer. Yet you can find a video of Trump getting an absolutely rousing ovation while speaking to the farm bureau while bringing up such important agricultural topics as NFL players kneeling during the anthem.

Truly baffling and evidence to me of what an American personality cult looks like. When a guy that has done nothing but hurt an industry can stand up and be treated like a God by those same people.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by lungs

A good chunk of our soybean production used to feed China's pigs. Rumors have China's hog population cut in 50% this year due to disease so the prediction that we'd fill in demand elsewhere globally has not come to fruition because global demand isn't there.

Never thought this would be something I'm sharing here, but I sat next to a guy when I was going into Guadalajara who was a swine vet, there as a guest for a conference. He told me that the Swine Flu has decimated China. He said that they the tariffs from the US caused the Chinese to shun the US for the Russian market. The US swine is stringently tested for the Swine Flu and the Russian wasn't. That particular flu can be transmitted through the meat so if your pig gets it, it's not safe for consumption and there's no getting rid of it. The initial result of the corn futures in the US was a drop (when China cancelled) and then a big rise, then a massive crash when the extent of the slaughter was discovered. So far the Chinese have slaughtered over 5 million infected pigs. That is more than size of the entire US swine market. I found all this to be incredible that it wasn't more public knowledge. It's quite a development. Who knew sports forums for fake football games were so interested?

[Edward64]

Googled on it. You're right, haven't read about this before.

Coincidentally 2019 is year of the pig.

China’s African swine fever outbreak is unprecedented - Vox

An outbreak of African swine fever, a highly contagious disease that’s been called “pig Ebola,” is ravaging Asia’s pig industry with no signs of letting up.

The current outbreak of the virus, which kills almost all animals it infects, began in China in August. Since then, some 22 percent of the country’s pig herd has been lost to the disease and to culling, Christine McCracken, an animal protein expert at Rabobank, told Vox.

African swine fever is also now spreading in several countries neighboring China, including Mongolia, Russia, Cambodia, and Vietnam. The map below shows current outbreaks in Asia, as reported to the World Organization for Animal Health, or OIE.
:
:
So far, there’s no sign that African swine fever has infected pigs or wild hogs in the United States. But the US Department of Agriculture said in May that it would begin testing for the virus to keep the disease out. “The more countries that it’s in, the more risk there is that it can spread globally through travelers carrying processed meat that’s been infected,” said McCracken.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by lungs

The American Farm Bureau had a few tweets whining about how this trade war hurts the farmer. Yet you can find a video of Trump getting an absolutely rousing ovation while speaking to the farm bureau while bringing up such important agricultural topics as NFL players kneeling during the anthem.

Truly baffling and evidence to me of what an American personality cult looks like. When a guy that has done nothing but hurt an industry can stand up and be treated like a God by those same people.

I guess they're getting what they asked for. Then again, cashing their welfare checks likely takes off some of the sting.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Never thought this would be something I'm sharing here, but I sat next to a guy when I was going into Guadalajara who was a swine vet, there as a guest for a conference. He told me that the Swine Flu has decimated China. He said that they the tariffs from the US caused the Chinese to shun the US for the Russian market. The US swine is stringently tested for the Swine Flu and the Russian wasn't. That particular flu can be transmitted through the meat so if your pig gets it, it's not safe for consumption and there's no getting rid of it. The initial result of the corn futures in the US was a drop (when China cancelled) and then a big rise, then a massive crash when the extent of the slaughter was discovered. So far the Chinese have slaughtered over 5 million infected pigs. That is more than size of the entire US swine market. I found all this to be incredible that it wasn't more public knowledge. It's quite a development. Who knew sports forums for fake football games were so interested?

I've seen some pretty awful videos from China where they dump thousands of pigs into a pit and bury them alive. Corn isn't actually all that affected by Chinese hogs, they did feed a lot of American soybeans to the pigs though.

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I guess they're getting what they asked for. Then again, cashing their welfare checks likely takes off some of the sting.

Honestly, as a recipient of past government farm handouts, they really don't amount to much in the context of a farming operation. It's being thrown a small bone, maybe a morsel.

[JPhillips]

Remember the new Air Force-1? It was supposed to cost 3 billion in 2016. Then Trump said he negotiated and it would be 2 billion. Now it's going to be 5 billion.

Everything's a con.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Remember the new Air Force-1? It was supposed to cost 3 billion in 2016. Then Trump said he negotiated and it would be 2 billion. Now it's going to be 5 billion.

Everything's a con.

Art of the deal

[RainMaker]

Not a big surprise.

U.S. State Department Official Involved in White Nationalist Movement, Hatewatch Determines | Southern Poverty Law Center

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Not a big surprise.

U.S. State Department Official Involved in White Nationalist Movement, Hatewatch Determines | Southern Poverty Law Center

Only surprise is the random use of the coach from Teen Wolf (the movie) as a pseudonym.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Not a big surprise.

U.S. State Department Official Involved in White Nationalist Movement, Hatewatch Determines | Southern Poverty Law Center

Matthew Q. Gebert

Now it all comes together.

[JPhillips]

Conway praises the courage of Trump doing nothing:

“at least we have a president who has courage in the face of cowardice by these shooters. At least he has the courage to listen to what is possible, and what will pass”

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Only surprise is the random use of the coach from Teen Wolf (the movie) as a pseudonym.

I read that as couch and was sorely disappointed to find out I misread it.

[Butter]

Any thoughts about Joaquin Castro tweeting out Trump donors' names?

I've thought for quite a while that a good way to stop a bunch of this online hate speech is to eliminate anonymity from the internet. If you're gonna say shit, put your name on it.

It would work GREAT in theory, but it would be absolutely unenforceable. And a bunch of other things like anonymous leaks of information would be negatively impacted.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by Butter

Any thoughts about Joaquin Castro tweeting out Trump donors' names?

It seems like a bad precedent/slippery slope kind of thing, but also the reaction seems a bit like 'the lady doth protest too much'. These are all folks who gave literally as much as they could to support Trump, and while I respect the fact that their privacy has been violated I don't think political donations are anywhere near sacrosanct and publicizing someone's political donation history barely qualifies as any kind of 'shaming'.

The more noise conservative talking heads make about this the more they seem to also be implying that supporting Trump is something to be ashamed of, and you don't want your neighbors knowing about, which isn't a very impressive basis for argument.

[cartman]

You can lookup yourself anyone who has donated to a campaign:

Campaign finance data | FEC

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Butter

Any thoughts about Joaquin Castro tweeting out Trump donors' names?

It's public information you can easily search through a government website. Shouldn't be treated any different than when a paper publishes a mugshot.

People are just up in arms because this is happening to rich people. And the faux outrage from the right which never shuts up about Soros and Bloomberg donating to politicians is hypocritical.

[Ben E Lou]

On one hand, it's publicly available information.

On the other, I always apply the test of "what would the other Party say if their opponents had done this?" If at Trump's Greenville, NC rally, he had read out the names of all Dem donors over X amount in that county, we would have barely heard about "send her back." People would have (rightfully) flipped out. It's a terrible precedent to set. Sure, people on this board know how to get to those names (with addresses if you know where to look,) but the average nitwit didn't know this information was public before it happened, and the fewer people who are aware of how to access that info, the better off we are as a society.

[cuervo72]

It depends on perspective. Would it be ok to out anyone who either dons a hood or bankrolls the KKK or any other white supremacist organization? At this point, there are some -- Castro being one -- who essentially equate Trump as functioning with such groups' goals in mind. If you believe the situation is that dire...

[Thomkal]

So some ICE raids took place in Miss. today, and picked up over 600 people. It was also the first day of school for many of their kids in the state and they came home to locked doors and no parents.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

So some ICE raids took place in Miss. today, and picked up over 600 people. It was also the first day of school for many of their kids in the state and they came home to locked doors and no parents.

How many will have citizenship or a visa? They aren't arresting people that are in the country illegally, they're arresting people that can't prove they are legally in the US.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

How many will have citizenship or a visa? They aren't arresting people that are in the country illegally, they're arresting people that can't prove they are legally in the US.

What's the difference?

Note, I say this not as an anti-illegal immigration, but as a pragmatist. I work in a restaurant in SoCal and have for 28 years. So I'm very familiar with the benefits of illegal immigration.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

On one hand, it's publicly available information.

On the other, I always apply the test of "what would the other Party say if their opponents had done this?" If at Trump's Greenville, NC rally, he had read out the names of all Dem donors over X amount in that county, we would have barely heard about "send her back." People would have (rightfully) flipped out. It's a terrible precedent to set. Sure, people on this board know how to get to those names (with addresses if you know where to look,) but the average nitwit didn't know this information was public before it happened, and the fewer people who are aware of how to access that info, the better off we are as a society.

I don't know that they would've flipped out. Personally, if I were such a max donor, I don't think I'd care that my name would be out there.

I do get your point that it seems like "targeting" to some extent, but I don't know how up in arms you can get for public information to be shared publicly.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

What's the difference?

Note, I say this not as an anti-illegal immigration, but as a pragmatist. I work in a restaurant in SoCal and have for 28 years. So I'm very familiar with the benefits of illegal immigration.

Being unable to prove citizenship on demand is being arrested on the suspicion that a person is not a citizen. Almost no one could prove citizenship on demand, we just don't carry those documents with us. I guarantee some of those arrested yesterday are legal, but can't prove that. Some of them may be deported even though they are legal.

If there were concerns about those that are in the country legally, the process would take a lot more time, but here these people were shipped off to Louisiana shortly after the raid with no notification to family that might help produce documents.

The whole plan seems to be, find a place where we know undocumented Hispanics have worked, go there and arrest all Hispanics unable to prove citizenship on demand, ship them out of state as quickly as possible so they can't prove citizenship later.

[Lathum]

You know it is pretty bad when Fox news is like, whoa, you need to tone down the white supremacy.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/08/media...ces/index.html

But hey, David Duke is on your side!!

David Duke on Twitter: "Tucker is RIGHT! White Supremacy is a ZioMedia Conspiracy Theory! The term is itself a lie. Millions of White activists are NOT "supremacists" We seek NOT to oppress or destroy any race! Human Rights for all - EVEN FOR WHITE PEOPLE! Stop antiWhite racism!
https://t.co/vY0knfD0Xx"

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

On one hand, it's publicly available information.

On the other, I always apply the test of "what would the other Party say if their opponents had done this?" If at Trump's Greenville, NC rally, he had read out the names of all Dem donors over X amount in that county, we would have barely heard about "send her back." People would have (rightfully) flipped out. It's a terrible precedent to set. Sure, people on this board know how to get to those names (with addresses if you know where to look,) but the average nitwit didn't know this information was public before it happened, and the fewer people who are aware of how to access that info, the better off we are as a society.

Since Citizens United turned money into speech, I have negative sympathy for rich people and corporations having their political leanings made public. Since we can't regulate it anymore, all we're left with is to hurt their businesses and try to embarrass them.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

So some ICE raids took place in Miss. today, and picked up over 600 people. It was also the first day of school for many of their kids in the state and they came home to locked doors and no parents.

Complete sidebar, but why do they keep moving the start of school day up so much? It used to be third week of August, then second week, now first full week? What the hell?

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

Complete sidebar, but why do they keep moving the start of school day up so much? It used to be third week of August, then second week, now first full week? What the hell?

NY is the week after Labor Day.

There were schools in FL and GA last week that started before August 1.

[Lathum]

Seems to be a regional thing with schools in the south starting earlier. Here in NJ we start the 5th of September, but friends in Ohio start next week

[Butter]

My high school senior started today. He graduates in mid-May sometime.

[JPhillips]

[tarcone]

We start the 15th. Next year a new law takes effect that schools cannot start no earlier then 10 days before Labor day. Something to do with kids missing school because of the State Fair.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by Butter

My high school senior started today. He graduates in mid-May sometime.

Yeah, my senior picked up his parking pass today, they start next week.

[CU Tiger]

this is as good a spot as any I guess.

Pretty interesting read.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/06/b...ceptances.html

[RainMaker]

Blago may be getting out early for some reason.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Being unable to prove citizenship on demand is being arrested on the suspicion that a person is not a citizen. Almost no one could prove citizenship on demand, we just don't carry those documents with us. I guarantee some of those arrested yesterday are legal, but can't prove that. Some of them may be deported even though they are legal.

If there were concerns about those that are in the country legally, the process would take a lot more time, but here these people were shipped off to Louisiana shortly after the raid with no notification to family that might help produce documents.

The whole plan seems to be, find a place where we know undocumented Hispanics have worked, go there and arrest all Hispanics unable to prove citizenship on demand, ship them out of state as quickly as possible so they can't prove citizenship later.

Agreed. If this were a sensible administration, those rounded up would be detained humanely and their cases would be expedited, allowing them or family members to find the necessary paperwork and get them cleared. Of course, this is not a sensible administration, and the camp in Louisiana probably resembles the prison from Cool Hand Luke.

[Edward64]

What we have here is a failure to communicate ... Florida not Cajun country.

[JPhillips]

Russian cruise missile crashes and kills two.

But the bigger story is that radiation levels spiked in a nearby city, people were instructed to close windows and drink iodine, and a part of the White Sea is being closed to people for a month.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49275577