Snakebitten: A Real-Time MP FOF thread

[QuikSand]

...and by the way, if you want to attack me for the backwards logic in the KRB stat, please peruse an old thread somewhere on this message board where we worked through this and, I think, pretty definitively unlocked this. A KRB does not (as you would intuitively assume) indicate a successful intermediate step where a certain blocker did a good job, and enabled a better outcome. It is 100% correlated with the play itself satisfying a numeric outcome, period.

I think it's still a useful metric, but learning this has sometimes been a pull-the-curtain-back moment for some FOFers.

[QuikSand]

BLOCKING

NAME	G	GS	KRB	KRBO	KRB%	PNK	SKA	SK%	RPLY	PPLY	PEN
C Anthony Fitzgerald	16	16	25	85	29.4	3	1	0.1	308	764	2
LT Shane Lyons	16	16	13	57	22.8	2	19	2.5	308	764	5
RG Morris Mauriello	16	16	14	46	30.4	0	11	1.4	308	764	5
LG Neil Randle	16	16	16	43	37.2	0	5	0.7	308	764	5
RT Dashawn Dawson	16	16	8	41	19.5	0	6	0.8	308	764	4

For reference, here (WAS above due to sloppy pasting, and BAL below) are the comparable stats for the OL blockers on my GML teams, where I clearly don't have the key to the gameplanning kingdom in any way:

NAME	G	GS	KRB	KRBO	KRB%	PNK	SKA	SK%	RPLY	PPLY	PEN
RT O.J. Sheldon	16	16	22	62	35.5	0	15	2.1	329	707	8
C Shaun Cook	16	16	14	52	26.9	1	6	0.8	329	707	7
LG Josh Gaines	16	16	17	50	34.0	0	9	1.3	329	707	8
LG Roosevelt Carpenter	16	16	13	43	30.2	0	8	1.2	314	694	5
LG Blaine Emmons	16	16	14	36	38.9	1	4	0.6	329	707	12

BLOCKING

[QuikSand]

...and damn that feels like a lot of penalties against the Ravens OL. What gives? We pushed the group into the high intelligence triad specifically to cut down on this. Wonder if that's a fluke, or a serious problem?


Int ratings for the 5 starters:

LT Gaines 99
LG Emmons 76 (12 penalties, playing guard!)

C Cook 90

RG Carpenter 94
RT Sheldon 91


Harumph

[QuikSand]

prior year (with T O'Donnell who was a numbskull):

NAME	G	GS	KRB	KRBO	KRB%	PNK	SKA	SK%	RPLY	PPLY	PEN
C Shaun Cook	16	16	15	65	23.1	1	9	1.4	362	626	11
RT O.J. Sheldon	16	16	22	60	36.7	1	13	2.1	362	626	2
LG Blaine Emmons	16	16	13	48	27.1	0	8	1.3	358	623	9
LG Roosevelt Carpenter	16	16	8	41	19.5	0	7	1.1	358	623	8
LT Miguel O'Donnell	16	16	10	40	25.0	1	9	1.4	362	626	19

BLOCKING

[tzach]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

If I were granted a window of spare time and restricted to only FOF use, I might really dig into the current tzack StL gameplan... he's already seemingly mastered the super-pass-heavy attack, and with this team has seemingly built up an unstoppable running game...




Getting 40% key run blocks is quite good for a lineman. And every guy on that team is posting that level. They're all good, I get that, but there's witchcraft involved here and it theoretically can't be as hard to uncork as the high-end passing game...right?

still no aunt jemima award, that's a failure

[QuikSand]

he mocks us littles

[QuikSand]

Anyway, in the postseason...

GML POSTSEASON RECAP

GAME RESULTS
Wild Card Round	BOX		Baltimore Ravens (QuikSand)	19-14	San Diego Chargers (Jops)		LOG
Wild Card Round	BOX		Kansas City Chiefs (Jeremessiah)	13-38	Tennessee Titans (AVAILABLE)		LOG
Wild Card Round	BOX		San Francisco 49ers (Juggernaut)	21-16	Chicago Bears (rgvicedo)		LOG
Wild Card Round	BOX		Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ChrustifusMax)	38-41	Atlanta Falcons (Ben E Lou)		LOG
Divisional Round	BOX		Atlanta Falcons (Ben E Lou)	17-18	Washington Football Team (KickStand)		LOG
Divisional Round	BOX		Baltimore Ravens (QuikSand)	7-33	New England Patriots (pyser)		LOG
Divisional Round	BOX		San Francisco 49ers (Juggernaut)	30-0	St. Louis Rams (tzach)		LOG
Divisional Round	BOX		Tennessee Titans (AVAILABLE)	24-27	Cleveland Browns (Scrooge)		LOG
Conference Round	BOX		Cleveland Browns (Scrooge)	6-27	New England Patriots (pyser)		LOG
Conference Round	BOX		San Francisco 49ers (Juggernaut)	31-3	Washington Football Team (KickStand)		LOG

The GM Challenge Bowl Result
Front Office Bowl	BOX		New England Patriots (pyser)	18-41	San Francisco 49ers (Juggernaut)		LOG

[QuikSand]

Well, no cigar for us, but not a terrible season all told.

[Chas in Cinti]

Nice season, Quik...

[QuikSand]

Yeah, I'm okay with it. But have the nagging sense that with these two star WRs in Baltimore, and a good-enough QB to go with them, a legit gameplanner probably would have an elite team going. And I don't. So that's kinda humbling.

In Washington, I'm fine where we are - we are a borderline elite team, and are benefiting (I think) from my willingness to add key non-affinity players there (I have two at LB right now). That's a solid team, maybe one click away from being in the top tier conversation every season now. The #2 seed behind tzach two years running... yeah, I'm okay with that as my station.

[QuikSand]

Ravens Reset - 2125 Offseason

We lost CB Maas to retirement, no shock, but did not yet lose our DB leader in CB Bernardino - an 11th year guy now, on a $35m expiring contract. It will happen soon enough. But right now, we are very strong there chem-wise... though performance-wise we left a lot on the field last season for some reason(s).

Front Office Football Eight
Baltimore Ravens Roster, Scout Overview
   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct 
Lyle, Austin            109 QB          6    45               45               1 yr.  
Justin, Evan            114 QB          8    24               24               ---    
Gilliland, Marco        105 QB          2    9                27               1 yr.  
Allegretti, Jeffrey     233 RB          6    55               55               2 yrs. 
Joyner, Donnie          223 RB          6    46               46               1 yr.  
Hillhouse, Kristopher   349 FB          7    65               65               3 yrs. 
Bryant, Nate            346 FB          6    14               14               1 yr.  
Gilbertson, Johnnie     440 TE          3    53               53               2 yrs. 
Hartman, Marcus         484 TE          5    37               37               2 yrs. 
Huffman, Alexander      481 TE          4    32               38               ---    
VanCaeyzeele, Parker    511 FL          7    67               67               2 yrs. 
Webster, Christopher    512 FL          2    41               58               3 yrs. 
McCormick, Phil         583 FL          3    32               45               2 yrs. 
Schlafly, B.J.          588 FL          7    26               26               ---    
Olman, J.J.             516 FL          3    24               41               1 yr.  
Bridges, Buddy          585 FL          8    23               23               1 yr.  
Behne, Warren           518 SE          7    81               81               2 yrs. 
Collins, William        580 SE          7    42               42               1 yr.  
Dupont, Ivan            582 SE          2    28               37               3 yrs. 
Hanley, Rodolfo         586 SE          5    22               33               ---    
Cook, Shaun             663 C           7    55               55               1 yr.  
Gaines, Josh            775 LG          10   79               79               2 yrs. 
Emmons, Blaine          762 LG          3    78               87               2 yrs. 
Carpenter, Roosevelt    779 LG          4    57               57               1 yr.  
Paullin, Terry          866 LT          14   1                1                ---    
Sheldon, O.J.           871 RT          7    45               45               1 yr.  
Hillenmeyer, Daniel     872 RT          2    18               36               ---    
Moore, Reggie           902 P           6    83               83               1 yr.  
Thomas, Mario           1003K           11   83               83               1 yr.  
Turnbull, Kevin         1191LDE         7    60               60               1 yr.  
Espinosa, Joey          1193LDE         3    47               47               ---    
Baump, Jackson          1198RDE         5    66               66               3 yrs. 
Douglas, Kim            1294NT          8    37               37               ---    
Middleton, Tucker       1297NT          10   33               33               1 yr.  
Crawford, Parker        1292NT          6    32               32               1 yr.  
Rhodes, Carlos          1357SILB        7    57               57               ---    
Crawford, Tyler         1354WILB        8    49               49               2 yrs. 
Dawson, Dave            1352WILB        9    44               44               ---    
Schenk, Rich            1356WILB        9    43               43               1 yr.  
Sorota, Tyrus           1415SLB         10   58               58               1 yr.  
Gardner, Anthony        1453WLB         9    52               52               1 yr.  
Thomas, Burt            1447WLB         8    40               40               2 yrs. 
Boyd, Ernest            1526LCB         6    63               63               3 yrs. 
Kindred, Matt           1532LCB         5    43               43               1 yr.  
Bernardino, Shaun       1507RCB         11   63               63               1 yr.  
Logan, Bennett          1534RCB         7    47               47               2 yrs. 
Wiggins, Les            1542RCB         9    45               45               2 yrs. 
Stone, Ken              1645FS          3    50               51               1 yr.  
O'Neal, Dylan           1630FS          2    34               44               3 yrs. 
Spangler, Doug          1627FS          3    32               39               2 yrs. 
Padilla, Dustin         1625FS          10   27               27               1 yr.  
Moore, Luke             669 LS          3    16               16               ---    
   
$$ - player is suspended, ## - player is inactive,  
** = player is injured, %% - player is on IR.  
   
Players Under Contract: 41
Inactive: 0
On Active Roster: 41
   
Salary Cap: $724,500,000
Cap Room: $128,220,000
Maximum for New Player: $104,640,000
Cap Room Lost (to old contracts): $810,000
   
Cap Room Lost Next Year (to old contracts): $0
Cap Room Required Next Year: $383,620,000

So, we have work to do... cap space with which to do it...and a bit of urgency as our receivers are in their absolute prime with no hardware to show for it, other than PVC being among the league leaders in the non-absurd-offense division.

[QuikSand]

LB Rhodes gave us two good years at $32m per... now wants a raise in free agency, I doubt we do that. I am pretty content with passable cheap LB I can get anywhere, including the FA bargain bin.

DE Espinosa is a RFA, wants $8-9m, and likely will get it. I like him, and 8 sacks in limited duty is good bang for the buck.

TE Huffman wants a RFA deal for $7m/yr, will be a tough call.

WR/KR Hanley wants $10m, unlikely. 26.8 yards per kickoff? A hobo can do that for us.

...no major commitments from our current crop of free agents.

For our expiring guys... P Moore $5m if we want to extend him...K Thomas $10...DE Turnbull maybe 15...C Cook $8...LB Gardner $15...

And then there's QB Lyle. 45/45 non-star, but apparently the best fit we will get at that critical position. So... we pay up on his roughly $70m/yr request? I guess so. I'd probably have to pay that much next year in open free agency, I suppose, with the risk that he might just walk.

I go ahead and put in a first big offer to Lyle, gotta do it, I reckon. But that will eat up a nice chunk of this year's theoretical "play with" money.

[QuikSand]

Ravens LB planning, thinking through typing:

If we decide not to re-sign either of our free agents, and sign nobody at all, the lineup looks like this with letter grades for my satisfaction:

Base
ILB Schenk B, Crawford B
OLB Sorota A-, Gardner A-

3WR
ILB Crawford C
OLB Sorota A-, Thomas B

So...we're not in bad shape with only 5 guys, but ideally would benefit from a coverage-inclined guy to patrol the deep middle in passing situations. Rhodes was my guy for this last year, but his zone is under 50, so still not ideal and he's very pricey. Is this possibly a target spot for, say, a 2nd round draft pick? Perhaps. A free agent? Perhaps.

Not a gaping need... but it's a passing league, and we aspire to be a team holding the lead a lot. So, we'll keep it in mind

[QuikSand]

Made one trade inquiry for a veteran LB who would have filled our need nicely...was politely declined.

[QuikSand]

DC BUREAU

Okay, let's head down I-95 a ways, shall we?

Front Office Football Eight
D.C. United Roster, Standard View
   
  Player                #   Pos   Start HT   WT  Exp Birthdate  Draft  College  
Matlosz, Winston        102 QB          6-1  202 2   08/31/2099 5 (25) Southern Method
Clancy, Rondell         109 QB          6-0  213 11  09/22/2091 1 (4)  Mississippi Sta
Rister, Bobby           225 RB          5-11 214 10  08/05/2092 ---    Tennessee      
Reed, Ruben             226 RB          6-2  237 3   12/05/2100 ---    Kansas State   
Clements, Herb          231 RB          5-10 204 4   09/13/2098 ---    Iowa           
Wheeler, Renaldo        232 RB          6-0  218 2   11/24/2099 ---    Michigan       
Rastok, Caiden          329 FB          6-2  252 5   07/27/2097 ---    Tennessee      
Hackney, Brandon        344 FB          5-10 245 8   11/29/2096 ---    Boston College 
Dawkins, Neil           441 TE          6-5  250 7   10/17/2097 ---    Louisiana - Mon
Wells, Weston           448 TE          6-4  254 2   09/14/2100 3 (25) Northern Illino
Corbett, Luis           487 TE          6-4  257 9   08/12/2095 ---    Arizona        
Clancy, Bruce           515 FL          6-0  188 6   09/22/2096 ---    Miles          
Roach, Barry            522 FL          5-9  196 7   11/27/2097 3 (22) Duke           
Everhart, William       580 FL          6-2  192 6   09/18/2096 1 (32) Alabama - Birmi
Malone, Damon           582 FL          6-0  193 10  09/23/2091 1 (13) Nebraska       
Carrubba, David         504 SE          5-7  187 5   09/09/2096 1 (4)  Virginia       
Duncan, Javier          510 SE          5-11 186 2   09/07/2103 4 (25) Colorado       
Robbins, Lester         589 SE          5-11 187 8   11/29/2095 4 (18) Virginia Milita
Fitzgerald, Anthony     660 C           6-3  292 8   01/14/2095 1 (15) Notre Dame     
Holsey, Branden         661 C           6-3  282 5   01/08/2098 7 (20) Syracuse       
Randle, Neil            770 LG          6-4  317 8   01/07/2096 5 (14) Brigham Young  
Mauriello, Morris       776 RG          6-3  314 8   10/13/2095 3 (19) West Liberty St
Lyons, Shane            873 LT          6-6  317 7   10/19/2096 1 (22) Buffalo        
Rodier, Donovan         874 LT          6-5  315 3   01/19/2101 1 (28) Wake Forest    
Dawson, Dashawn         877 RT          6-7  325 11  12/28/2091 1 (26) Texas          
Burton, Dennis          914 P           6-5  224 2   07/10/2101 ---    Florida        
Wijaya, Joel            1003K           6-4  210 6   06/01/2097 5 (32) Georgia Tech   
Jacobs, Timothy         1192LDE         5-10 292 6   06/04/2097 2 (32) Ashland        
Ogden, Thurman          1193LDE         6-4  292 6   11/20/2098 2 (26) Nebraska       
Wolfe, Riddick          1196LDE         6-3  315 8   10/30/2096 3 (15) Arizona        
Gillespie, Samuel       1197LDE         6-4  308 2   11/06/2102 7 (25) Auburn         
Pascal, Roderick        1290NT          6-3  316 11  03/29/2093 2 (20) Indiana        
Sweeney, Aiden          1291NT          6-0  317 3   11/19/2100 3 (28) Rice           
Ruddick, Paul           1340SILB        6-1  245 2   06/19/2101 1 (25) Texas          
O'Neill, Ronald         1354SILB        6-2  265 8   11/16/2094 7 (15) Wake Forest    
Jones, Jumbo            1357SILB        6-0  232 8   06/20/2095 2 (20) Mississippi    
Antonick, A.J.          1355WILB        6-0  238 10  11/06/2092 3 (11) Mississippi    
Duda, Terrance          1451SLB         5-10 238 9   07/22/2094 1 (21) Florida State  
Welch, Max              1453SLB         6-1  243 6   03/20/2098 1 (20) Stanford       
Sinclair, Alan          1449WLB         6-0  241 7   06/07/2096 7 (22) Southern Method
Shedd, Landon           1452WLB         6-0  238 11  11/13/2092 2 (8)  East Carolina  
Jasper, Francisco       1456WLB         6-3  264 2   11/07/2099 ---    Minnesota      
Peterson, Cesar         1523LCB         5-11 192 5   09/03/2096 ---    Southern Califo
Junker, Josiah          1527LCB         5-9  182 2   08/02/2102 2 (25) Ohio State     
Franz, Taylor           1520RCB         5-9  178 3   08/04/2100 ---    Indiana        
Rice, Clifton           1538RCB         5-10 197 7   07/28/2094 ---    Texas Christian
Jeffrey, Colton         1547RCB         5-8  184 7   09/04/2095 4 (11) Florida        
Reese, Miles            1642SS          6-0  209 7   09/05/2096 3 (12) North Carolina 
Chiba, Tyler            1643SS          5-7  188 6   07/27/2097 ---    Assumption     
Scott, Tom              1630FS          5-10 183 2   09/20/2102 6 (25) Oklahoma       
Sampson, Carter         1633FS          6-0  210 6   08/30/2096 ---    Illinois       
Trippi, Caiden          665 LS          6-3  243 4   09/20/2098 ---    Illinois       
   
$$ - player is suspended, ## - player is inactive,  
** = player is injured, %% - player is on IR.  
   
Players Under Contract: 36
Inactive: 0
On Active Roster: 36
   
Salary Cap: $724,500,000
Cap Room: $208,740,000
Maximum for New Player: $182,830,000
Cap Room Lost (to old contracts): $1,330,000
   
Cap Room Lost Next Year (to old contracts): $0
Cap Room Required Next Year: $348,190,000

36 players signed, a bit more cap space than up in crabtown, let's see what we have cooking here in the capital city.

RB/FB is going to take some untangling... RB Clements has the one breakout year but bars look awful, to be honest... RB Reed looks the part (59 Brk, 77/90 HoleRec) but endurance void they say is poison... RB Wheeler got a look last year, posting just 4.06 ypc but he's got the three key ratings all pretty good (41/74/78), a +7 move in last year's preseason and overall suggests a non-fumbler. I reckon we keep two of these fellas.

At FB, I have been semi-happy with Hackney and his 72 Run Blocking and 94 special teams. If we let the new guy Rastok take the chem leadership (and that's the plan here) then he'll settle right in. Will take some money to bring Hackney back, though - we'll see if AVAILABLE nabs him away, I don't think I'll lose to a human owner.


As for contract stuff... some of that cap space will indeed be occupied by guys we really want to re-sign (or RFAs we likely re-up with before they get freed up).

We probably have cap room for one or two meaningful signings... have to look through the field and see if there's someone who comes in and looks to make an impact right away. Replacing our high dollar, non-affinity TE would be nice, but we're willing to plod him back out there to grind out his 7 ypt - compared to recent seasons, that's wayyyyyy in the black.

[QuikSand]

oops just realized i posted the wrong DC roster grab but who cares

[QuikSand]

So, FA stages 1:2-3 pass and nothing happens in the Baltimore timeline. Seriously. We didn't sign anyone, didn't lose out on anyone, nothing.

We're in the lead on 8 free agents, that's fine - maybe a click fewer then normal. (By the way, I'm still a "fewer" guy, the AP can go eat a bag of dicks)

Draft is moving along, time for me to go dig into our choices with our late-ish 1st rounder... a trade out is always in play, I just haven't really looked much.

[QuikSand]

DC BUREAU

As for the other team...also no major movement. We signed a no-risk DB, I'll detail him later if he looks like he will stick. I hope he doesn't - it would mean other things haven't worked out the way I want them to.

Leaders on 11 pending free agents, and in the mix on two more. That's a standard offseason kickoff for my teams. We'll see. No huge offers in the mix, for what it's worth.

[QuikSand]

So my draft conundrum is this - I have a player available who looks pretty good, at a need position, and in the right triad for my team chemistry. So, no brainer, right?

Well... I'm amidst some possible shifting of chemistry. And that might render the player a neutral, rather than an affinity - at least short term. And if the free agency play (to be sorted out soon) goes my way, then my "need" at the position becomes far less acute, short term. So... is he still the best fit?

Maybe so. No trade down/out offers, and I don't really love anyone else. I have my standard "best affinity impact position player available" as my Plan B here- he's a WR who projects to me as a WR3, at best. So... what to do?

[Chas in Cinti]

I would not go with the WR... you have the 2, then the Webster investment last year... take the gamble.

Just my 2 cents,
Chas

[QuikSand]

Yup. Done.




Baltimore: QuikSand takes T T.J. Caver with the 1.25 pick.

Run Blocking		49<->77
Pass Blocking		72<->100
Blocking Strength		10<->37
Endurance		50<->78

HT	WT	RAW	ADJ	DASH	SOL	BENCH	AGI	BRJU	POS	%DEV
79	328	6.1	6.7	5.08	46	26	7.34	104	-	46

that look is basically the same as mine - max protect LT with meh run blocking


he's a 3-4 chem guy, and we might be switching our lead to a 3-4 guy, but I think this makes sense to stick with him...

[QuikSand]

..speaking of my "I guess I could take him" receiver... oh, he just gets grabbed by...




Atlanta: Ben E Lou takes WR Marlon Stevenson with the 1.26 pick.

Avoid Drops		41<->69
Getting Downfield		34<->62
Route Running		73<->100
Third Down Catching		48<->75
Big-Play Receiving		73<->100
Courage		12<->39
Adjust to Ball		41<->68
Punt Returning		0<->27
Kick Returning		0<->27
Endurance		20<->48
Special Teams		30<->58

HT	WT	RAW	ADJ	DASH	SOL	BENCH	AGI	BRJU	POS	%DEV
71	187	5.6	5.8	4.40	24	11	7.08	105	47	48

oh.

[QuikSand]

And from the DC BUREAU...




Washington: KickStand takes OLB Manuel Brew with the 1.29 pick.

Run Defense		68<->95
Pass Rush Technique		0<->27
Pass Rush Strength		73<->100
Man-to-Man Defense		64<->91
Zone Defense		70<->97
Bump-and-Run Defense		27<->53
Play Diagnosis		59<->85
Punishing Hitter		37<->64
Endurance		29<->56
Special Teams		55<->81

HT	WT	RAW	ADJ	DASH	SOL	BENCH	AGI	BRJU	POS	%DEV
74	248	6.2	5.9	4.88	40	25	7.22	118	37	61

If we can overlook the lack of pass rushing (and i most definitely can) he looks pretty complete. I am persuaded (in part, i think, buoyed by Ben's comments in a recent VideoChat) that having a dedicated coverage-strong LB to play MLB in pass situations is important, and I'm hopeful this will be that guy. Don't love taking LB in round one two straight years, but the silver lining argument is basically that I do want to be drafting late enough in round one that all the "key position" guys are basically exhausted and BPA types come more reasonably into play. So, there's that, I guess.



Anyhow, for now a boring linebacker. Maybe one day he'll be a 12 pass defenses guy, but for now, just a piece in the background puzzle of tryna build up a good overall roster. (It's not far from my mind that I am paying big money to two veteran non-affinity LBs here, so drafting teo good fit guys who can maybe turn into Thing 1 and Thing 2 would be a way out of that)

[Chas in Cinti]

I like the look of that LB... is his ST good enough that he'll be helping there as well, or is DC a ST crazy strength as well?

[QuikSand]

He should play special teams in DC, yes. I think our threshold there is roughly 60, and I'm hopeful he'll be higher than that. I think Endurance is his most important rating, just as a limit on how much we can play him, I'm hoping it's 42 rather than 24.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

BTW, a key run block works like this in FOF:

-each designed run play has one blocker selected as the key blocker
-that selected blocker will be credited with one key run block opporutnity in-game
-the play gets run, presumably with that guy having extra influence in blocking dice rolls
-if the play is deemed a success, the key blocker is awarded a successful key run block

The determination of "success" seems to be based on some formula from Football Outsiders... I cannot recall it directly, but it's close to this:

On 1st down, get 5 yards
On 2nd down, get half (or maybe 40% of?) the distance for a 1st down
On 3rd/4th down, get the 1st down

The FO success formula is 40% of available yardage on 1st down, 60% on 2nd & the 100% on 3rd.

[QuikSand]

Many thanks, I suspected my details were off. Appreciate the fill-in.

[QuikSand]

...FWIW, I seem to recall testing this way back when, and I have a vague recollection that Jim's FOF success metric for a 1st down run was pinned to a number of yards, rather than a percentage of the distance to go. Like, it needed to get 4 yards (40% of 10) even if it was 1st and 20 due to a penalty or something. Can't swear to that, but there's a grain of salt.

[QuikSand]

Ravens update still boring AF. We pursued but lost out on a lineman.

We have a chem problem among our D7 - we are built around an 11-12 leader, the rest of the group is split fairly evenly between 7-8 and 8-9 guys, so no easy transition within. And now our 11-12 leader has been eclipsed so it looks like I will have to cut a decent starter to keep the chem intact. No free agent out there solves my problem.

I probably need to put a "lean" into my D7 players now, anticipating that before too long I'll need to go with a 7-8 or 8-9 leader. Just no good 11-12 guys on the horizon.

[QuikSand]

Ravens draft update, round two:



Baltimore: QuikSand takes ILB Wayne Lang with the 2.25 pick.

Run Defense		56<->83
Pass Rush Technique		36<->64
Pass Rush Strength		36<->64
Man-to-Man Defense		22<->50
Zone Defense		49<->77
Bump-and-Run Defense		42<->70
Play Diagnosis		0<->28
Punishing Hitter		34<->62
Endurance		64<->92
Special Teams		59<->87

HT	WT	RAW	ADJ	DASH	SOL	BENCH	AGI	BRJU	POS	%DEV
74	247	5.0	4.9	4.85	18	26	7.34	113	36	35

Scouts liked him as VU, so I moved in, reaching a bit. Looks like a jack of all trades, and about as dumb as a bag of hammers. Count me in.

[QuikSand]

DC BUREAU


So, we re-signed our TE chem leader, nothing shocking but glad it wasn't difficult. He's unhappy but not angry, in FOF that makes all the difference.


And that's it. That's the udpate.


Oh, a draft pick in late round two... for some reason I am optimistic about this draft (for both teams) - knowing somewhere in the back of my mind that rarely ends well.


Anyway...




Washington: KickStand takes OLB Andrew Kinney with the 2.29 pick.

Run Defense		31<->58
Pass Rush Technique		72<->99
Pass Rush Strength		5<->32
Man-to-Man Defense		58<->84
Zone Defense		25<->52
Bump-and-Run Defense		47<->74
Play Diagnosis		58<->84
Punishing Hitter		24<->51
Endurance		61<->87
Special Teams		73<->99

HT	WT	RAW	ADJ	DASH	SOL	BENCH	AGI	BRJU	POS	%DEV
73	252	5.3	5.1	4.46	37	17	7.28	115	24	46

Our roster is awfully thin on actual dedicated pass rushers. DT Pascal played some DE last year and racked up 11 sacks, LB Welch played DE nearly full time and was great, and LB Sinclair is one of those one-trick-pony types, I'm not sure I want to trot him out there in more than the most obvious pass situations. (And Sinclair has a chem problem looming, he might be a force-cut due to his upside down #weakleader chemistry profile) Thus, we invest here in a guy who... well, might turn out to be a young Sinclair, hopefully a little more useful than that. And he's from Syracuse, so a homer pick.

[QuikSand]

Ravens sign a rotation-worthy RB, he'll fit into the mix for this year, I think - has a good bar profile.

Our pursuit of game-changer OL free agents now seems to be behind us, without bearing fruit. With our first round OT in the fold, we should be okay short term - and I have a few more depth guys in the draft queue, though I don't think I can help myself with upcoming round four pick from taking a weird player at a non-need position...

[QuikSand]

So, why draft this guy? We don't really need a WR. He has apparently rotten ratings. And the void at Route Running, the uber-rating for WR now in my book, appears to be a void.



Baltimore: QuikSand takes WR Tracy Tatum with the 4.25 pick.

Avoid Drops		42<->71
Getting Downfield		41<->69
Route Running		0<->28
Third Down Catching		31<->59
Big-Play Receiving		20<->48
Courage		21<->50
Adjust to Ball		45<->74
Punt Returning		19<->47
Kick Returning		23<->51
Endurance		15<->43
Special Teams		23<->51

HT	WT	RAW	ADJ	DASH	SOL	BENCH	AGI	BRJU	POS	%DEV
72	200	4.2	4.3	4.45	25	14	6.96	128	68	14

Well, I see a guy who blew out the combines. Kept coming up atop my searches and lists. Have been watching him since round two. No clue what good he might be. Have a fantasy that he's just a scrappy, hard-working, tough-as-nails football player who will do whatever it takes to be our WR4 forever. (i.e. a white guy that the commentator likes)

We'll see.

[tzach]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

So, why draft this guy? We don't really need a WR. He has apparently rotten ratings. And the void at Route Running, the uber-rating for WR now in my book, appears to be a void.

http://gml.fof-belco.com/small/helmet2.png

Baltimore: QuikSand takes WR Tracy Tatum with the 4.25 pick.



Well, I see a guy who blew out the combines. Kept coming up atop my searches and lists. Have been watching him since round two. No clue what good he might be. Have a fantasy that he's just a scrappy, hard-working, tough-as-nails football player who will do whatever it takes to be our WR4 forever. (i.e. a white guy that the commentator likes)

We'll see.

intriguing guy. if that 0 is not a 0 he's got a chance to climb to 50. i'll probably interview him for future reference

[QuikSand]

I am 100% down to waste a 4th round pick on a guy who registers as "intriguing" by big hitters. Even if he completely fails, it's interesting, and that is supposed to be a goal here.

[tzach]

fwiw he was on my list right after the RB Ben took at 4.27. with both gone i had to get a....punter


at the very least the wr looks good as KR/PR/ST, 128 is not bad for BrJ

[QuikSand]

he's gritty

[QuikSand]

DC BUREAU

we signed a RB, in the mix

life intervenes, not sure when i'll get a real update

[QuikSand]

DC BUREAU

We missed out on S Chiba, let AVAILABLE outbid us, a classic no-no. Thought I had loaded up enough bonus to beat him, alas.

Still have work to do here and there.


My day got in the way of FOF today... so I let the drafting continue from my lists, no clue who we got for either team. I'll post stuff if anyone seems worthwhile. Meh.

[QuikSand]

Another loaded day here. Tired and tipsy.

BAL - nothing exciting

WAS - had to go fat 1yr deal to re-sign FB Hackney but did; re-up S Reese and some moves to help DB group; signed WR/PR Snyder (89 PR)

meh

[QuikSand]

Okay, early free agency in the books, and drafted players are peekable...

Baltimore crowned as the 32nd best draft, that's really great. Conceptually, I felt okay keeping my picks, we'll see if that turned out to be the usual mistake...

32

BAL

QuikSand

1(25) RT T.J. Caver 31/62 2(25) MLB Wayne Lang 24/50 5(25) RT Ricky Garcia 19/43 7(25) RDE Giovanni Truong 17/41

1(25) RT T.J. Caver 31/62 2(25) MLB Wayne Lang 24/50 5(25) RT Ricky Garcia 19/43 7(25) RDE Giovanni Truong 17/41

50.9

...so, that's the BenBot assessment. Worthy of consideration.


For us, here's what I see on sneak peek:


6th round combine skipper QB Archie Bridges looks, to me, like a true find. Interesting bar profile. He doesn't even rate above, and that's worrisome, but he could be a viable run-around starter if what I see were legit. Must be an absolute pick machine.


WR Tatum looks okay, the RR is a true void so that's a ceiling, but he does look like a guy who might stick around and get some targets for a long time, if his personality merits it. He'd need to bump that RR off zero to be better than a WR4, though, and in a zero-injury league, little value there - even if he pops +10 from these ratings.


T TJ Caver looks as advertised, not an all-around stud, but an elite pass protector. I'm okay with that if he holds. Not maxed-out, though, but 44/98 should develop well enough. I'm okay with what I see now, even for a late first round pick.


T Garcia is pocket lint, correctly excluded from the "list of players" used for the analysis. 5th round pick dissolved.


DE Truong is an end-of-roster candidate, I actually prefer my DL to be 10/90 or 90/10 than 50/50, he projects to something like that last slot. Meh.


LB Wayne Lang looks like what I expected - solid but unspectacular at nearly everything, a void in play diagnosis. My scout said VU, and if that translates to a bump in preseason, this guy likely becomes an inside LB for us forever. Satisfied, even though he was a mild reach.




Nothing startling here... the most interesting angle is that the BenBot didn't even register my QB as a functioning human, while my scouts see him as pretty legit. Learning opportunity, I'll be prepared for bad news.

[QuikSand]

Hrm, in clearing the chemistry path for our D7 group, I'd need to cut both DT Crawford and LB Thomas to get our chem anchor guy (DT Middleton) to reclaim the group lead. That sucks, I knew about part one, not part two.


...


drat

[QuikSand]

DC BUREAU

Okay, a few free agent moves in the late stages - re-signed LB O'Neill and DE Wolfe, grabbed an OL chem factor (details TBA), and another would-be backup QB.


As for the rookie draft, BenBot is slightly kinder than with BAL, but really only mildly so...

24

WAS

KickStand

1(29) SLB Manuel Brew 38/59 2(29) SLB Andrew Kinney 26/50 3(29) RDT Julio Ackerman 27/51 5(29) RDT Erik Amari 19/55

1(29) SLB Manuel Brew 38/59 2(29) SLB Andrew Kinney 26/50 3(29) RDT Julio Ackerman 27/51 5(29) RDT Erik Amari 19/55

58.6

What I see with my scout's peeking is:


LB Brew looks as expected - should be a solid ILB from the get-go, with strong coverage skills and hopefully enough endurance to really be a 3-down guy, but at the least he's a solid asset


LB Kinney was grabbed as a pass rusher, I suspect he will be fine there, but might end up as a tweener slotted at OLB and playing there some, too. 37/82 PRTech is good but not great. End & ST strong. Real asset.


DT Ackerman is a single-skill guy, but looks like what I need there - adequate run-stopping NT. PH and PRStr say maybe he'll creep, that would of course be welcome. Okay with this as a 3rd rounder.


OT Poston looks like a T3 type of guy, in a normal league with injuries that's a fairly important position, here not so much. Unlikely to really break into a lineup for us. Meh.


DL Amari is a two-bar guy, right at the top: RD 13/62, PRTech 22/90. Hoping he develops like Espinosa from my Ravens, he has a very similar initial bar profile. Jury's out, need to see preseaon movement I think.


G Gunther looks like a longshot to make the team


S Cassell has a little bit to like, but getting starts seems hard, bubble at best




Not awful, but like BAL, no barn-burners.

[tzach]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

WR Tatum looks okay, the RR is a true void so that's a ceiling, but he does look like a guy who might stick around and get some targets for a long time, if his personality merits it. He'd need to bump that RR off zero to be better than a WR4, though, and in a zero-injury league, little value there - even if he pops +10 from these ratings.

yep, he also looks like RR=0 to me. i think he'll pop, but he's certainly a package player that needs dedicated plays

[QuikSand]

Chem dilemma in DC, with our DB group. Leader retired, no good options out there to replace him in his same sign, so I'm more or less resigned to switching to either a 7-8 or 8-9 leader. Both candidates are on the roster, but one needs a weight change and position switch, but I won't know until pre-camp (Monday's stage) whether it has a shot to work. If it does, he should be a really good 7-8 group leader for a long time. If not, then... he gets cut and we likely stick with S Reese (8-9 group, 82 Ldr, 91 Pers), who is not Grade A but is a solid B and talented enough to not be a roster drag.


With that said... approaching DB free agents is tough, as I think it's close to 50/50 whether we'll want 7-8 guys or 8-9 guys. Ugh.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by tzach

yep, he also looks like RR=0 to me. i think he'll pop, but he's certainly a package player that needs dedicated plays

i have plenty of weak sauce teams out there, past and present, where a "package player that needs dedicated plays" is a viable thing (for lack of real opportunity cost) but this team, right now... bad fit for him

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Chem dilemma in DC, with our DB group. Leader retired, no good options out there to replace him in his same sign, so I'm more or less resigned to switching to either a 7-8 or 8-9 leader. Both candidates are on the roster, but one needs a weight change and position switch, but I won't know until pre-camp (Monday's stage) whether it has a shot to work.

Fun twist... I opened up FOF this morning with a sense "I don't recall clicking to make that one guy on my DC team lose weight... oh dammit I fucked it up AGAIN..." - only to now realize that the league didn't do camp today, just the late free agency stage. I need to make him lose weight in today's stage. Hope writing this makes me remember...

[QuikSand]

Ravens late free agency, some moves as always:

LG Roosevelt Carpenter	Late FA Stage 1	released
LT T.J. Caver	Late FA Stage 1	Changed position from RT to T
NT Kim Douglas	Late FA Stage 1	turned down a contract offer: 3yrs, $14,130,000.
RDE Broderick Bruce	Late FA Stage 1	signed as an unrestricted free agent from Kansas City: 2yrs, $8,020,000.
LS Brad McNeil	Late FA Stage 1	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $5,500,000.
LS Marquis Bush	Late FA Stage 1	signed as a free agent: 1yrs, $3,000,000.
MLB Alonzo DiGiacomo	Late FA Stage 1	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $5,460,000.
LDT Elias Dritlein	Late FA Stage 2	signed as an unrestricted free agent from Kansas City: 2yrs, $9,970,000.
QB Bo Wilhite	Late FA Stage 2	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $6,670,000.
LS Evan Downs	Late FA Stage 2	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $5,030,000.
RG Micah Coulter	Late FA Stage 2	turned down a contract offer: 1yrs, $3,400,000.
LCB Quentin Atkins	Late FA Stage 2	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $5,030,000.
SE Rodolfo Hanley	Late FA Stage 3	re-signed as an unrestricted free agent
TE Alexander Huffman	Late FA Stage 3	re-signed as an unrestricted free agent
SILB John Duran	Late FA Stage 3	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $10,000,000.
LS Jordan Henson	Late FA Stage 3	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $5,500,000.
LT Mitch Boldin	Late FA Stage 3	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $5,030,000.
LDE Jermaine Covey	Late FA Stage 3	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $5,460,000.

Cutting G Carpenter was necessary evil - that poisonous mix of high leadership and low personality, not resolvable for him. Not sure what was the best thing to do, just cut him right away, or play him for three years and then do so. Alas, he gone, and our OL chem is now a glittering prize. (T Douglas as leader, 3x Exceptional, everyone clicking save the rookie Boldin as a potential)

Quick perusal through the remainder... we needed a long snapper, we signed four, natch... LB DiGiacomo has a promising bar profile... same for CB Atkins... QB Wilhite is yet another possible QB2 on a team with no need for one (much less four)...WR Hanley is back for $6m after I said it wouldn't happen...I exposed TE Huffman but got him back also for way less than his RFA request...LB Duran is the most immediate impact guy here, solid LB w standout ST skills and great chem

Cutdown starts with three long snappers, heh.

[QuikSand]

DC BUREAU

Basically the same routine down here...

RB Ruben Reed	Late FA Stage 1	re-signed as an unrestricted free agent
TE Ted Norris	Late FA Stage 1	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $5,030,000.
P Miles Kimsey	Late FA Stage 1	signed as a free agent: 1yrs, $8,000,000.
LCB Garrett Figures	Late FA Stage 1	signed as a free agent: 1yrs, $4,500,000.
RG Morris Mauriello	Late FA Stage 2	re-signed as an unrestricted free agent
WLB Desmond Villasenor	Late FA Stage 2	turned down a contract offer: 3yrs, $18,000,000.
RCB Rondell Boyer	Late FA Stage 2	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $6,670,000.
SLB Tito Bray	Late FA Stage 2	signed as an unrestricted free agent from Carolina: 2yrs, $5,920,000.
P Antonio Roberts	Late FA Stage 2	signed as a free agent: 1yrs, $13,000,000.
RCB Taylor Franz	Late FA Stage 3	re-signed as an unrestricted free agent
RB Renaldo Wheeler	Late FA Stage 3	turned down a contract offer: 1yrs, $5,500,000.
RCB Demetrius Joseph	Late FA Stage 3	signed as an unrestricted free agent from Kansas City: 1yrs, $5,500,000.
RB Corbin Coates	Late FA Stage 3	signed as a free agent: 1yrs, $6,000,000.

So, I made a major mistake and left CB Franz to try free agency - fortunately we got him back with $9m/yr but that was more than the RFA deal required, dumbass oversight here... we also let RB Wheeler walk, and he got grabbed up by Atlanta (bad sign)... we'll have open tryouts for RB2 job now, but Wheeler should be that guy if I had just remembered to post up his requested RFA deal...nothing else exciting here I don't think

Big news - can 7th year LB Luke Arndt lose weight, in hopes of a conversion ft safety and a long future as our DB chemistry anchor? Drum roll... yes! Well, yes so far. He has gotten his instructions to trim down, we'll see if he makes it from 238 to whatever the convert-to-S threshold is. If so, he'll be a 94/99 guy from the 7-8 group that we can comfortably build around for a while. If not, he's a cut. Pretty simple, actually.

We're right at the 70-man limit (careful planning) so have some real pruning to do here for preseason.

[QuikSand]

Ravens cutdown to 60 not very interesting, I don't think.

5QB should drop to at most 3... we just signed out starter for 5 more years, so we mainly just want chem, right? Gilliland clicked in w 87, Justin w 93. Rookie Bridges not yet with 84 and still-intriguing bars, and veteran Wilhite with 95 and no starts. A mess.

FB Hillhouse is locked in, FB Bryant is locked in as the chem gimp. So, of our 4 RBs, what 2-3 make the final roster? Allegretti is getting paid to do it all, and likely will again. RB2, then? Special teamer" Grooming to start after Allegretti? 4th year guy Slaten looks like the best fit - strong chem, has his starts, and good enough bars to play here and there.

Coupla long snappers, yeah... not interesting. Cuts to 53 may be.