COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[sterlingice]

I think we're at the start of our next wave, the one that's rolling through Europe right now. And that's less than ideal because we never really dropped that low after the summer wave. But it's about to roll through the population again. However, hopefully, with the vaccination rates and recent boosters, the waves will get less deadly, particularly among the vaccinated.

SI

[AlexB]

The reports here are that a rapidly increasing percentage of cases are a more transmissible variant of Delta.

But the good news is that asymptomatic cases are much higher and even for those who do have symptoms, they are generally a lot milder.

Hopefully this is the start of Covid becoming more like a seasonal virus we can (mostly) all live with

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by AlexB

The reports here are that a rapidly increasing percentage of cases are a more transmissible variant of Delta.

But the good news is that asymptomatic cases are much higher and even for those who do have symptoms, they are generally a lot milder.

Hopefully this is the start of Covid becoming more like a seasonal virus we can (mostly) all live with

That would be a nice progression

SI

[cuervo72]

I went to a scheduled appointment at a CVS today at 9:30. Didn't have much problem. Wife was not a fan of the interface though; you basically had to pick a location then see the times available at that location. For those of us with a car, availability is more important than location. I don't really care which of the half-dozen CVSs in the area I go to.

[Lathum]

Just set up my kids appointments. 12/1 and we go back 12/22. I am a little nervous as we are going in to NYC the 23rd to see Hamilton and I am hoping they don't feel gross.

I am glad my wife made me check on the updated Broadway mandates. Kids under 12 are only allowed in with a fully vaccinated adult if they have either a negative PCR test or on dose 2 week out, so we will be covered.

The CVS site is horrific. As others have mentioned the scheduling is clunky, but even worse is they don't have an option for adding a family member. You have to go in and start a new appointment reentering insurance info, address, etc...

[NobodyHere]

Has anyone gotten the booster? Is it going to knock me out for a day like the 2nd Pfizer shot did?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Has anyone gotten the booster? Is it going to knock me out for a day like the 2nd Pfizer shot did?

I'll let you know after my Moderna booster this afternoon. With the original vaccination, I had a sore arm and then a floating feeling on the second day so hopeful it won't be that bad for me.

[sovereignstar v2]

@NobodyHere why do you ask? Do you have a hot date scheduled?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2

@NobodyHere why do you ask? Do you have a hot date scheduled?

Need an update ...

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Need an update ...

She said something that indicated she might be a Steelers fan.

I mean I try to be a tolerant person (except for the Amish, f*** those guys) but Steelers fans don't even qualify as human.

I'll keep you posted.

[cuervo72]

I got the Pfizer booster yesterday morning after having Moderna for my first two shots. Nothing more than a sore arm/shoulder really.

[sterlingice]

Moderna booster made me a bit fuzzyheaded that night, slept in the next morning, and was a bit fuzzy most of the day. Was all gone by the morning after. That was still much better than the 2nd shot where I was fuzzy the evening of, had bad chills, dizziness, and aches the next day, and then was ok the day after.

SI

[Edward64]

Got my Moderna yesterday. Sore shoulder only.

Unlike the orig where I was walking on clouds on the second day, I feel fine.

[cuervo72]

Ok, my sore shoulder went away, but my armpit hurt like a bitch yesterday. Brief bit of googling indicates it's the lymph node kicking in, apparently. It's tender still today but not as painful as yesterday.

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Ok, my sore shoulder went away, but my armpit hurt like a bitch yesterday. Brief bit of googling indicates it's the lymph node kicking in, apparently. It's tender still today but not as painful as yesterday.

I had the same exact reaction with my armpit hurting and swollen. I felt it on the morning of day 3 but it was back to normal later that day.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Got my Moderna yesterday. Sore shoulder only.

Unlike the orig where I was walking on clouds on the second day, I feel fine.

Back to normal. Wife didn't experience much either. Now have to remind the kids to get their boosters.

[Ksyrup]

My daughter went to a birthday party on Sunday and late Monday night, she got a text that someone at the party tested positive. They won't say who so she doesn't know if she had close contact. She has no symptoms and a self-test came back negative, but my brother and his wife (doctor/nurse) pulled out for Thanksgiving. He's got 2 weeks of surgeries scheduled and can't afford to either get sick or risk unknowingly transmitting it to patients. So that sucks. She's going to get a PCR test but results won't be back until after Thanksgiving. I need to make sure she's clear because I'm having surgery in less than 2 weeks.

This whole fucking situation sucks, and it sucks even more that a bunch of idiots are prolonging the problem.

[spleen1015]

I feel you man. My daughter has been tested and quarantined 4 times since August. I don't think anyone has actually had COVID but a majority of the softball team has been sick 3-4 times this fall with colds and other crap.

[JPhillips]

We've been pretty good at the college this semester with Covid, but we're having a pretty significant flu outbreak now. I hope the break allows it to calm down some.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I feel you man. My daughter has been tested and quarantined 4 times since August. I don't think anyone has actually had COVID but a majority of the softball team has been sick 3-4 times this fall with colds and other crap.

Last fall, Caitlin was interning in an elementary school as part of her major prerequisites and got Covid. She gave it to 11 teammates. In January, the coach appealed to the school district to allow her to get the vaccine ahead of the season with the rest of the teachers and they refused because she wasn't employed by the school district. Yet she spent 2-3 days at the school every week. Made a ton of sense...

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by AlexB

The reports here are that a rapidly increasing percentage of cases are a more transmissible variant of Delta.

But the good news is that asymptomatic cases are much higher and even for those who do have symptoms, they are generally a lot milder.

Hopefully this is the start of Covid becoming more like a seasonal virus we can (mostly) all live with

Although every silver lining…

New heavily mutated variant B.1.1.529 in South Africa raises concern

[whomario]

Best case this establishes itself only in late spring when summer effects will start to dull impacts, then there's time to update vaccines for the refresher for 50/60+ next autumn.

The big caveat (but good kind) is that South Africa is entering a time of "season" (see lastyear) and as everywhere else has less measures to stop spread than ever before. And low vacc levels ... So it is not like a big jump in cases is unexpected and can solely be put down to a new variant.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by AlexB

Although every silver lining…

New heavily mutated variant B.1.1.529 in South Africa raises concern

You jinxed us.

Dow futures tumble 800 points on fears over new COVID variant detected in South Africa

[Edward64]

Bye Delta. Hello "Nu"

The new strain of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 that has emerged in South Africa and neighboring countries will likely be given the Greek letter "nu" if the World Health Organization determines that it merits being named, according to Evercore ISI analysts. The strain, called B.1.1.529 for now, has become dominant in South Africa and has reached 90% of cases in Guateng, which is the smallest province in the country, with more than 1,000 cases a day being estimated,

About 41% of South Africa’s adults have been vaccinated and the number of shots being given per day is relatively low, at less than 130,000, significantly below the government’s target of 300,000 per day.

South Africa currently has about 16.5 million doses of vaccines, by Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson, in the country and is expecting delivery of about 2.5 million more in the next week, according to Nicholas Crisp, acting director-general of the national health department.

[Atocep]

So I'm training a new guy at work and it turns out he's an anti-vaxxer right wing kook. He was bitching about not being told the vaccine was a requirement for the job during the interview process (it's a fucking federal job dipshit). So now he's attempting to get an exemption. In the meantime he has to test daily, which he didn't realize either. His first test was on Tuesday and Wednesday when I told him he needs to go submit another test he got pissed because apparently he assumed it was weekly rather than every day. His plan is to leave the state if his exemption is denied because pretty much impossible to find a job in Washington that doesn't require vaccination. The same guy also went on a rant about the government giving out free money so no one is willing to work anymore.

We have another guy that's anti-vax and going through the same process, but he's more of the Joe Rogan type anti-vaxxer than the right wing nut job the other guy is.

Keep in mind, this is a federal job working at a large military hospital. I don't know what they're expecting.

[Edward64]

I think this is reassuring news but 60-100 days sounds like a long time (even though I'm sure, historically, its a record response time).

'Moderna and BioNTech and Pfizer tell us that they are already looking at this very closely and have told us they can update the vaccines very quickly if they need to' CNBC's Meg Tirell said on TechCheck Friday.

Moderna can begin clinical trials for vaccines effective against a potentially resistant variant within 60 days, Tirell reports.

She also reports that Pfizer can adapt its mRNA vaccine within six weeks if necessary, and would have a product to ship out within 100 days if need.

'Within two weeks BioNTech says it expects lab data to tell us whether this is really an escaped variant, one that can really evade the protections of the vaccines,' she said.

[sterlingice]

/Stupid prediction with little scientific backing - more a hunch than anything from a non-epidemiologist/

In Texas, we've had waves every 6-7 months: June/July 2020 -> December/January 2021 -> July/August(/September?) 2021
Average Daily New Covid-19 Hospitalizations By Week (Monday-Sunday) - Texas Medical Center

That makes me think that natural immunity lasts about 6 months. Then whatever dominant variant is running around goes through the population. The vaccinated crowd gets their 10% or whatever breakthrough cases and there's a significant change in behavior with increased masking and pulling back of social activities: fewer people in restaurants and the masking in, say, grocery stores goes from 30% to 70%. Meanwhile, the current dominant variant rolls through the unvaccinated crowd and they get their natural immunity, all while not modifying behavior. Eventually, the virus runs out of vectors and burns itself out for another few months.

We're about a month from our next wave that rolls through the unvaccinated population. If Delta is still the dominant variant at the time, it'll be what the next wave is and Omicron will be squelched out. If Omicron gets a foothold in time, maybe it'll be Omicron instead. Remember, Beta was stronger than Alpha but it just hit at the "wrong" time - right after the initial winter wave that was dominated by the original COVID and Alpha, so it never was as significant as Alpha or Delta. It's that whole thing about evolution not being about survival of the fittest, but survial of the good enough.

SI

[Flasch186]

I sneezed at a restaurant today and my dad turned to the people behind him and said, "Don't worry it's not covid" Yeah he's an idiot BUT the point is the people behind him said "oh we're not worried at all... god bless you. Which I said thanks." Then my dad did the whole, "It was a joke, LOL" like he does when he realizes that perhaps his joke was ignorant. The people said to him, "No worries at all, Let's Go Brandon." So no matter what some idiot(s) say on these boards and elsewhere we all know that there is a straight very short line between Covid and the right wing nut jobs. I know know, stats and such and polling data which is all BS (LOL) but we all know the truth. They suck up whatever conspiracy they can. I just pray that they don't vote in more ignoramuses that run from science. I'm nervous that they will just gerrymander their way to herd immunity {see what I did there}? F'n morons.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

/Stupid prediction with little scientific backing - more a hunch than anything from a non-epidemiologist/

In Texas, we've had waves every 6-7 months: June/July 2020 -> December/January 2021 -> July/August(/September?) 2021
Average Daily New Covid-19 Hospitalizations By Week (Monday-Sunday) - Texas Medical Center

That makes me think that natural immunity lasts about 6 months. Then whatever dominant variant is running around goes through the population. The vaccinated crowd gets their 10% or whatever breakthrough cases and there's a significant change in behavior with increased masking and pulling back of social activities: fewer people in restaurants and the masking in, say, grocery stores goes from 30% to 70%. Meanwhile, the current dominant variant rolls through the unvaccinated crowd and they get their natural immunity, all while not modifying behavior. Eventually, the virus runs out of vectors and burns itself out for another few months.

We're about a month from our next wave that rolls through the unvaccinated population. If Delta is still the dominant variant at the time, it'll be what the next wave is and Omicron will be squelched out. If Omicron gets a foothold in time, maybe it'll be Omicron instead. Remember, Beta was stronger than Alpha but it just hit at the "wrong" time - right after the initial winter wave that was dominated by the original COVID and Alpha, so it never was as significant as Alpha or Delta. It's that whole thing about evolution not being about survival of the fittest, but survial of the good enough.

SI

Seasonality more than immunity i would say. There's not that many infected (even Texas isn't, say, the amazon Region or Peru) for immunity to be the driver between wave/no wave. Temperate regions have 1 long season, others like Texas or Florida have a shorter Winter season but an extra one in summer.
Delta changed it a little bit in that under pretty normal conditioms (say UK) there' s significant spread no matter the season. But all things being equal seasonality makes a big difference. Just that with Delta it needed less of a push from this (waves in Europe generally started sooner than last year despite more immunity via vaccination especially).

And remember that 1) it's no on/off switch and 2) holds out longer against significant illness than getting the sniffles or just being a carrier.

75% of clinics in Germany are having to postpone procedures already, patients are getting shipped across country ... This whole pandemic has done a real number on resiliency of health care with lots and lots of folks quitting or being burned out, yet ignorant idiots are still demanding that "increasing ICU capacity" should be the goal, being utterly oblivious how taxing and complex it is to work there and how long training takes even then.

[sterlingice]

I don't get it (not saying you're wrong - I'm saying I'm ignorant). I keep hearing about seasonality of the illness, but how is the virus affected by seasonality?

I always hear these theories about "people go indoor during these seasons" - like summer for the south and winter for the north - but that's never made sense to me. That's only for leisure activities, for less than 10% of people's days. School, work, commute - these are constant during all seasons (except school and summer) and they take up a much larger portion of the day and a much larger chance for exposure and chance for people to expose others. Even other things that take up a lot of time in many people's lives - errands, gym time, many leisure activities like going to movies, etc - these are all in a constant indoor environment. They don't change with the season. It's only a tiny segment of time in a person's day that's affected by what season it is.

Or people just gesture vaguely at how cold and flu season is seasonal but with no mechanistic explanation. Like I get why typical viruses explode in the December-January time frame in the US: there's a huge amount of spreading travel with a number of very fomite-transmissible respiratory diseases along with cramming a bunch of respiratory disease transmitting people into tiny metal tubes and shared living spaces.

However, this is also true in summer, to a lesser density, and major transmission just isn't there to the point where "summer colds are the worst" in The Stand, could be a running joke that was universally understood. And I seem to remember that has something to do with immune response to influenza and rhinoviruses being particularly sensitive to air and nose temperature.

But none of this explains that huge summer waves we've experienced in Texas (and other places) with COVID. So I think I'm missing some other piece here.

SI

[Edward64]

Too soon to tell but hopefully a sign that Omicron is a dud.

Omicron variant showing ‘unusual but mild’ symptoms, South African doctor says | WOODTV.com

The South African doctor who alerted officials of the possibility of a new variant, later named omicron, said the “unusual but mild” symptoms were what caught her attention.

In a Fox News report, Dr. Angelique Coetzee, who is a board member of the South African Medical Association, said she first noticed unusual symptoms on Nov. 18.

“It presents mild disease with symptoms being sore muscles and tiredness for a day or two not feeling well,” Coetzee said. “So far, we have detected that those infected do not suffer the loss of taste or smell. They might have a slight cough.”

Coetzee said that after two dozen of her patients tested positive for COVID-19 and displayed these new symptoms, she alerted officials to the possibility of a new variant.

Most of Coetzee’s patients were men who reported “feeling so tired,” and half of them were unvaccinated. The patients have a range of ages and ethnicities, including “one very interesting case” of a 6-year-old child with a fever and “very high pulse rate,” she said.

[albionmoonlight]

I saw something else that the reported cases with symptoms are tending to be among unvaxxed.

As long as variants are still repelled by vaccines, we will be fine here. The rest of the world, of course, is another story.

[albionmoonlight]

cite:

The new variant appears to be spreading most quickly among those who are unvaccinated. https://t.co/1DykX3V7pZ

— NBC Los Angeles (@NBCLA) November 27, 2021

[Flasch186]

This also may have to do with their behavior being far more risky, stupid, snowflaky, and selfish so they are more exposed to the virus.

[Edward64]

Two weeks of uncertainty.

As scientists race to answer whether the newly identified Omicron variant poses a greater threat, experts are urging measures to help lower coronavirus risks to millions of Americans -- including vaccinations and mask wearing.

It will be at least two weeks until scientists can answer key questions as to whether Omicron's mutations make it more resistant to vaccines, more transmissible or more severe.

Nice CDC tracker below.

5-11 was approved about a month ago and it's at 63% fully vaccinated. 12-18 was approved like 2-3 months ago and it's at 69% full vaccinated. Compared to 18+ at 71% and where it's been approved and readily available since Mar ... the vaccination pace for kids are pretty good.

Yet to be seen if they hit a plateau at around low 70s.

CDC COVID Data Tracker

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Two weeks of uncertainty.



Nice CDC tracker below.

5-11 was approved about a month ago and it's at 63% fully vaccinated. 12-18 was approved like 2-3 months ago and it's at 69% full vaccinated. Compared to 18+ at 71% and where it's been approved and readily available since Mar ... the vaccination pace for kids are pretty good.

Yet to be seen if they hit a plateau at around low 70s.

CDC COVID Data Tracker

I think that says everyone over 5 is 63% vaccinated so that also includes everyone over 12, etc. The counts show only 200K fully vaccinated in the 5-11 group (196.7M vs 196.5M), which makes sense as there's only been a window of about a week for full vaccination among that age group.

It shows about 4M have gotten the first dose, which sounds about right, considering what it takes to distribute it and there's likely some reporting lag, too.

Here's my back of the napkin sketches on the numbers:

228M=228,677,953
232M=232,755,525

228M/XM = 80.7% X=283,367,971
232M/YM = 74.5% Y=312,443,523

Y-X=29,055,551 in the 5-11 age group
232M-228M=4,077,572

So, 4M/29M= 14% so far

SI

[Edward64]

You are so right. Sorry

Was wanting for some happy news

[sterlingice]

We're adding ours to the fully vaccinated count tomorrow and that makes us breathe easier

SI

[Lathum]

Just got boosted. Arm a little sore so far.

[Sublime 2]

Got boosted yesterday. Sore arm, and pretty exhausted this morning. Took a 2 hour nap (which is very atypical) this afternoon. Woke up from that feeling good.

[molson]

I strategically planned my booster for Thanksgiving Eve so I could I could just veg out/nap Thanksgiving night and not tempt myself to work. That worked pretty well. It's not often I can just sit and do nothing for a while without being angsty, but the night after the Booster, I was super run-down so it was easy.

[cuervo72]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...attle-rcna7139

Marcus Lamb, co-founder and CEO of the conservative Christian Daystar Television Network who vocally opposed Covid vaccines, has died at age 64, weeks after contracting Covid-19, according to the network.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Kodos]

Unrelated cause of death, I'm sure.

[Flasch186]

Judas


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[sterlingice]

The CMS mandate was paused now just a couple of days before it was about to take effect. What was cute about this was that the challenge was only brought by 11 states, but the judge said it applied to all states (except a handful covered by another ruling). Aw, those darn leftist activist judges... oh wait, Trump appointee. My bad. He's just protecting the constitution or something.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...e-judge-block/

If you work in health care and don't want the vaccine, that's totally your right. And you can kindly toddle your butt to another career that doesn't risk others well-being for your dumb choices.

SI

[Brian Swartz]

New KFF poll showing 18% of vaccinated don't intend to get the booster. I'm surprised it's that low tbh, I take this as good news. Usual partisan split of course.

[Edward64]

Wife and kids were planning to fly to see grandparents this Christmas. FIL called and said not to come because of Omicron. We reached out to relative who is fairly high up there in the VA and he said probably shouldn't travel either (his son is cancelling a trip home also). So looks like we are cancelling the trip.

Still hard to gauge how real this is. I get its more infectious and vaccinated folks are getting it. But the real gauge is how much more serious is it for hospitalization and mortality, and we probably won't get a more clear picture until later this month.

All these travel restrictions seem overkill right now, and wonder if this is an overabundance of caution from Biden or if they know something already that is not yet public.

Son is effectively a 2 day trip away driving alone, so this probably means he'll be spending Christmas by himself.

[sterlingice]

I'm not sure I'd be that worried specifically about Omicron so much as we're definitely headed towards (already in?) another wave that will be cresting around Christmas and January in a lot of parts of the country. So if you're visiting particularly vulnerable populations, it's not an ideal time.

SI

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Edward64

All these travel restrictions seem overkill right now, and wonder if this is an overabundance of caution from Biden or if they know something already that is not yet public.

Considering that every country is trying to figure this out, the idea that there is one piece of secret information that we have is probably not true.

Everyone seems to be saying "this is somewhere between a nothingburger and going back to square one, but we really don't know yet and won't for 2 weeks"

[Ksyrup]

Everything coming out early seems to suggest it's more transmissible but milder symptoms. Until we hear otherwise, I'm going with overreaction by Biden. He's stuck between a rock and a hard place though, and there's only so much he can do about it. There's a definite need for us to accept that this isn't going anywhere and that we need to "learn to live with it" but of course, that requires people to take all necessary precautions so that living with it is like the flu, not an ongoing national crisis. But continuing to keep things shut down or half-assing everything is causing this to extend in perpetuity.

I'm not really sure there's a pathway for Biden to navigate this successfully that he has any control over.