2015-2016 MLB Hot Stove thread

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Jay Bruce has a very interesting list. Just seems random or something. Yankees AND Red Sox???? On the other hand he has a bunch of small markets in there.

Last week, Reds outfielder Jay Bruce had an opportunity to update his limited no-trade clause by changing the list of eight teams that he can block deals to. However, the 28-year-old decided to stand pat and keep the same clubs on his veto list, as Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com writes. Bruce can block any proposed deal that would send him to the Red Sox, Rays, Yankees, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Marlins,

Ehh, not that we need another OF right now, but he could just be planning to use the no-trade clause as extra leverage. I want to say Schilling had the Red Sox on his no-trade list specifically because he knew we were a possible big-market destination and he used it to leverage an extension out of them.

[molson]

I'm just glad the Red Sox have an increased chance of being relevant next year. I didn't feel the same way when their big off-season prize was a overweight third baseman who hit 16 home runs the year before.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Seeing these ridiculous offers to some of these starters makes me all the more happy with the way the Royals structure their staff. The starter salaries on some of these guys are going to blow up some teams for years to come. I'd rather see $10M starters paired with a couple of $4-7M bullpen guys any day. Much more room for error if an injury occurs.

The Barry Zito deal definitely crippled the Giants and kept them from doing anything noteworthy.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

So were you mad about signing Matt Holliday, and will you be upset if the Cardinals drop a ton on Chris Davis? Just curious where you're drawing that line.

Holliday was 29 and coming off a 1.023 OPS in St. Louis. 7-120 was a big contract, but $17 mil per wasn't crazy given his production. Davis is 29 and coming off a .923 OPS, so I wouldn't mind him - but a lot depends on the price. I'd prefer to keep Heyward over signing Davis. But, I'd feel a lot better paying Davis or Hayward $130-150 mil over paying Price $210-230 mil.

Pitchers seem to get a hurt a little more often and after watching Wainwright, Carpenter and Garcia all battle injuries after signing for big money - I'd be a little squeamish to pay an over-30 pitcher $200 mil.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Not a good sign for the Royals. Would love to see him back, but may not happen.

Jerry Crasnick
✔
@jcrasnick

#Royals appear priced out on Zobrist. #Braves dabbled on him. #Angels inquired early. Not much lately.

[Mota]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

You're really going to acknowledge sample size but then imply "years" of data make it mean something? It's 63 IP with a 59/12 K:BB ratio and a 1.16 WHIP. Jon Lester had a phenomenal postseason track record with us, and since he left his teams haven't won a playoff game he started and he has an ERA around 5.50. Did he magically lose his clutch ability, or can we acknowledge that he got a little lucky during his 5 starts in 2013 and a little unlucky in his 3 since?

Besides, didn't you get the memo from the last two postseasons? Bullpens win playoff games, so Price only has to get us there and then Kimbrel will single-handedly win it!

Well, over multiple seasons and multiple teams in the playoffs, he's let in nearly double the runs that he lets in during the regular season. I think it does mean something. You pay someone 30 million a year to win in the playoffs, not just the regular season.

At some point, it was probably just a statistical anomaly. Unfortunately with all the media pressure, I believe that it's a monkey on his back that is probably actually affecting his performance.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Mota

Well, over multiple seasons and multiple teams in the playoffs, he's let in nearly double the runs that he lets in during the regular season. I think it does mean something. You pay someone 30 million a year to win in the playoffs, not just the regular season.

At some point, it was probably just a statistical anomaly. Unfortunately with all the media pressure, I believe that it's a monkey on his back that is probably actually affecting his performance.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...184&position=P

Well is xFIP indicator says he is basically the same pitcher during postseason. Just unusually unlucky and almost 16 percent of his flyballs are leaving the park in the post season.(9 percent regular season). Strand rate of 75 percent during the regular season which falls off to 63 percent post season.

He may be grooving too many fastballs in difficult situations and a correction he should have made by now. His walks are a bit lower in the postseason. Maybe he needs to learn to put more pressure on the hitters in these pressure filled game situations.

[lighthousekeeper]

tigers just paid $16,000,000 ($8M/yr) for...Mike Pelfrey!

dude gave up 10.8 h/9 over the past 3 seasons and his punishment is an 80% pay raise.

[cartman]

Greinke to the D'Backs on a 6 year deal. Haven't seen a dollar amount yet.

[MrBug708]

195 million. He wanted a 6th year

[INDalltheway]

Cubs signed Lackey for 2 years and $32 million. Don't hate the deal, but I don't expect the same production as last year.

[cartman]

Now they are saying the Greinke deal is for $206 million.

[Neuqua]

Originally Posted by INDalltheway

Cubs signed Lackey for 2 years and $32 million. Don't hate the deal, but I don't expect the same production as last year.

I'll take it. At that price point he just needs to be average for us to get value from those dollars.

[kingfc22]

Giants sign Samardzija 5/90. Should have plenty left to lock in another SP and hopefully a LF

[MrBug708]

Iwakuma to the Dodgers. Also sounds like they are closing in on a trade for Chapman

[PilotMan]

I'm a pretty big Chapman fan here in Cincy, so I'm pretty excited to hear that he might be coming to LA. Iwakuma had a good year, but he's really just another injury prone arm in the rotation.

[lighthousekeeper]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Iwakuma to the Dodgers. Also sounds like they are closing in on a trade for Chapman

It's crazy how much change the Dodgers' roster sees from one year to the next. Their front office folks must not get any rest.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Love the Chris Young and Soria signings. Young has been a great part of the staff, able to fill whatever role is needed (reminds me a lot of what they did with Bruce Chen over the previous few years). Great to have Soria back in blue. He'll fill in the role of setup well with Holland being gone. Great backup option for closer too.

[lighthousekeeper]

tigers pay $13M for Mark Lowe, which is surprisingly high for a guy with a career 1.1 total WAR over 10 seasons. makes you wonder if they are bidding against other suitors.

[BishopMVP]

Red Sox trade Wade Miley to Seattle for Carson Smith and Roenis Elias. Another bullpen upgrade, but Miley was an innings-eater with a decent contract. Even as someone who loves young players with potential, you need some consistency behind David Price, and Clay Buchholz/Rick Porcello/Joe Kelly/Eduardo Rodriguez/Henry Owens/Steven Wright? has some obvious potential downsides. There are rumors we might trade Buchholz too and sign another starter, which would be interesting.

Aroldis Chapman situation is blowing up. As far as I could tell, it was announced as a deal but no one ever reported which prospects were going from LA to Cincy (reportedly no Urias or Seager). Then the Cincinnati GM says he hasn't agreed to a trade, the Dodgers sources disagree, and now reports of a domestic violence altercation involving Chapman and gunshots from October show up and the trade is almost certainly off. Weird, confusing situation.

[Dutch]

David Price, Before and After pics are in!

7 years with the Tampa Bay Rays...

2007 Player Cash Earnings $6,100,000
2008 Player Cash Earnings $650,000
2009 Player Cash Earnings $750,000
2010 Player Cash Earnings $1,080,000
2011 Player Cash Earnings $1,250,000
2012 Player Cash Earnings $4,350,000
2013 Player Cash Earnings $11,112,500

7 years with the Boston Red Sox...

2016 Contract details $30,000,000
2017 Contract details $30,000,000
2018 Contract details $30,000,000
2019 Contract details $31,000,000
2020 Contract details $32,000,000
2021 Contract details $32,000,000
2022 Contract details $32,000,000

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

but Miley was an innings-eater with a decent contract.

Innings Eater = Nothing but an average pitcher that does nothing great so we just call him an innings eater as a backhanded compliment.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Innings Eater = Nothing but an average pitcher that does nothing great so we just call him an innings eater as a backhanded compliment.

That's exactly what he is (career 101 ERA+), but I say it as a real compliment. Pitching 200IP at league-average rates is very boring, but also decently valuable, and even more so when almost everyone else in your rotation has question marks. Because when pitchers get injured it's not often you have a 6th starter that pitches that well, let alone a 7th, or an 8th...

Originally Posted by Dutch

David Price, Before and After pics are in!

7 years with the Tampa Bay Rays...

2007 Player Cash Earnings $6,100,000
2008 Player Cash Earnings $650,000
2009 Player Cash Earnings $750,000
2010 Player Cash Earnings $1,080,000
2011 Player Cash Earnings $1,250,000
2012 Player Cash Earnings $4,350,000
2013 Player Cash Earnings $11,112,500

7 years with the Boston Red Sox...

2016 Contract details $30,000,000
2017 Contract details $30,000,000
2018 Contract details $30,000,000
2019 Contract details $31,000,000
2020 Contract details $32,000,000
2021 Contract details $32,000,000
2022 Contract details $32,000,000

Carlos Pena

2006 BOS/NYY 800k (actually prorated part of that, but whatever)
2007 TB 800k
2008 TB 6m
2009 TB 8m
2010 TB 10.125m

Yes Red Sox spend more money than TB, but pointing out pre-arb and arb salaries compared to FA salaries is useless. Congrats on sucking enough in 2006 that you were 1 game worse than the Royals and could draft the obvious #1 pick. Maybe if you drafted Buster Posey instead of Tim Beckham the next year you could've won a World Series or gotten out of the first round more than once while you had 2 potential HoF'ers in Price and Longoria (a #3 overall pick) for super cheap.

[Johnny93g]

Originally Posted by Dutch

David Price, Before and After pics are in!

7 years with the Tampa Bay Rays...

2007 Player Cash Earnings $6,100,000
2008 Player Cash Earnings $650,000
2009 Player Cash Earnings $750,000
2010 Player Cash Earnings $1,080,000
2011 Player Cash Earnings $1,250,000
2012 Player Cash Earnings $4,350,000
2013 Player Cash Earnings $11,112,500

7 years with the Boston Red Sox...

2016 Contract details $30,000,000
2017 Contract details $30,000,000
2018 Contract details $30,000,000
2019 Contract details $31,000,000
2020 Contract details $32,000,000
2021 Contract details $32,000,000
2022 Contract details $32,000,000

Not sure i see your point unless im missing the obvious. Shouldn't a really really good pitcher, who enters free agency make more then the beginning of his career?

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

That's exactly what he is (career 101 ERA+), but I say it as a real compliment. Pitching 200IP at league-average rates is very boring, but also decently valuable, and even more so when almost everyone else in your rotation has question marks. Because when pitchers get injured it's not often you have a 6th starter that pitches that well, let alone a 7th, or an 8th...
Carlos Pena

Yes,

Basically by the nature of what you just said if your 4th starter is an innings eater you are in decent shape at starter pitcher. If you are like the Twins and every year their big prize(and new ace) is an innings eater you are in tough shape as a pitching staff. I just kind of think its funny I guess that these average pitchers will have a label as an innings eater like it is somehow going to help the staff. Nolasco was an innings eater, then it was Santana, this year who knows who it will be.

[Atocep]

The Braves are shopping Shelby Miller now?

They're seriously becoming the Indians from Major League.

[MrBug708]

Miller to the D-Backs, Zobrist to the Cubs

[stevew]

Starlin Castro to the Yankees is interesting

[Coffee Warlord]

If Warren stretches out and turns into a decent starter, good deal for the Cubs.

[stevew]

Yeah Warren is a solid piece.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Johnny93g

Not sure i see your point unless im missing the obvious. Shouldn't a really really good pitcher, who enters free agency make more then the beginning of his career?

Yeah, you missed the obvious. It was a simple compare and contrast of two 7-year stints. There is no suggestion there that a "really, really good pitcher who enters free agency should (not) make more then the beginning of his career".

[RainMaker]

I was never a fan of Castro. Just didn't get on base enough.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Atocep

The Braves are shopping Shelby Miller now?

They're seriously becoming the Indians from Major League.

And the D'Backs are 2015's San Diego Padres. Ender Inciarte alone is probably worth as much as Shelby Miller, and adding Dansby Swanson and Aaron Blair on top of that? Dave Stewart is a moron.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

And the D'Backs are 2015's San Diego Padres. Ender Inciarte alone is probably worth as much as Shelby Miller, and adding Dansby Swanson and Aaron Blair on top of that? Dave Stewart is a moron.

Of course no need for Swanson if you don't give away an already major league caliber shortstop that's under contract until, what, 2020 IIRC.

At this point it really doesn't matter much though, there's so precious little even AAA talent left in the Atlanta organization that Miller couldn't have made any real difference anyway.

The last person who laid Atlanta to waste as badly as the assclown(s) now in charge was Sherman.

[Peregrine]

Well as much as we can criticize the Braves front office for other deals - you can't argue they got a very high price for Miller - really about as good as they could have possibly done.

[miked]

Yeah, they got a huge return for Miller, and I guess in retrospect they got it for Heyward. They got a year of a good pitcher, then some great prospects to boot. Not bad for a guy who consistently hit .265 with no walks and limited power who is probably looking for 25M.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by miked

Yeah, they got a huge return for Miller, and I guess in retrospect they got it for Heyward. They got a year of a good pitcher, then some great prospects to boot. Not bad for a guy who consistently hit .265 with no walks and limited power who is probably looking for 25M.

Yeah but his defense is sooooooooooooooo awesome!


Good luck to anyone who commits 150m+ to a defensive outfielder.

[Peregrine]

I am super excited about the Braves getting Inciarte as they will finally have a real leadoff hitter which they haven't had in a long time. Plus he fills a real need position.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Peregrine

I am super excited about the Braves getting Inciarte as they will finally have a real leadoff hitter which they haven't had in a long time. Plus he fills a real need position.

Just imagine what kind of trade package he'll command!

Braves 2016: Trust the Process

[Peregrine]

Hey that's next year talk!

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by miked

Yeah, they got a huge return for Miller, and I guess in retrospect they got it for Heyward. They got a year of a good pitcher, then some great prospects to boot. Not bad for a guy who consistently hit .265 with no walks and limited power who is probably looking for 25M.

Originally Posted by stevew

Yeah but his defense is sooooooooooooooo awesome!


Good luck to anyone who commits 150m+ to a defensive outfielder.

Uhh... y'all do realize that we're talking about a guy with WAR above 6 for the last two years and he hasn't even hit his prime yet (for comparison's sake, Heyward's former teammate, Freddie Freeman has never hit 6 WAR and has been under 4 the last two seasons)? I mean he's no Trout or Harper, but he's definitely a great player.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Peregrine

I am super excited about the Braves getting Inciarte as they will finally have a real leadoff hitter which they haven't had in a long time. Plus he fills a real need position.

With a 2-season OBP of .329 ... the current major league average for leadoff hitters.

That's basically Maybin with less power but half as many strikeouts

[ISiddiqui]

Amusingly, a lot of Inciarte's value is defensive. 5 WAR last year, more than half from defense. Interestingly, Heyward has a career OBP of .353.

[Peregrine]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

With a 2-season OBP of .329 ... the current major league average for leadoff hitters.

That's basically Maybin with less power but half as many strikeouts

I'm thinking he'll be an upgrade on Maybin defensively and similar to him (at least the 2015 version of Maybin) in other stats. Plus he's only 24.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Dave Stewart is a moron.

He's a former agent that has been anti-analytics in the past. I posted in the in the last offseason thread that he was an awful hire. He's now the only guy that can make the braves look like they actually have a plan in place.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Of course no need for Swanson if you don't give away an already major league caliber shortstop that's under contract until, what, 2020 IIRC.

Red Sox are pretty set at SS and CF with Xander/Mookie (+JBJ), but if the D'Backs offered Swanson/Inciarte for Eduardo Rodriguez we'd probably take it in a heartbeat. Similarly if the Braves still had Simmons they still should have done this deal in a heartbeat.

I mean, it's weird that the Braves are acting like the new stadium opens in 2019 not 2017, but you really can't complain about this deal.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Atocep

He's a former agent that has been anti-analytics in the past. I posted in the in the last offseason thread that he was an awful hire. He's now the only guy that can make the braves look like they actually have a plan in place.

Oh yeah, it's not a surprise. Just hilarious that the Diamondbacks had maybe the worst GM in the game in Kevin Towers - Kevin Towers' tenure in Arizona: Four years of poor trades - Beyond the Box Score - and replaced him with someone worse.

Maybe there's something in the water at that house! http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...ning/24676467/

[Ramzavail]

I didn't know Dave Stewart was a romantic either. I mean after what he did with "Lucille" and all.

"Yes, like the first week of spring training camp when Towers walked into his house on Feb. 19, Stewart's 58th birthday. He had just cooked a plate of linguine, shrimp and salad, and with his iPad propped up next to his plate, was having a FaceTime conversation with Lonnie and son Tarik, who were home in San Diego, cooking the same exact dinner.

They even opened a bottle of wine together at the same time and had a celebratory toast during the 90-minute sequence.

"I told him, 'I didn't know you were romantic, too,''' Towers says. "Who would have ever known Dave Stewart would be a romantic?'' "

[stevew]

Neil Walker for Jon Niese. Walker is a good guy but we had other guys to take his place. If Niese can go back to being a 1.7WAR pitcher his deal is pretty nice.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by stevew

Neil Walker for Jon Niese. Walker is a good guy but we had other guys to take his place. If Niese can go back to being a 1.7WAR pitcher his deal is pretty nice.

He's a solid back of the rotation piece that the Mets didn't need. They've been trying to trade him for over a year now and I didn't understand why a lefty that can give you 180 innings of league average performance didn't get interest before this.