Werewolf XLV - ROME! (Game over, post 3425)

[st.cronin]

I've opened some room in my pm box.

[st.cronin]

The best lawyer in Rome is:

Narcizus Lispus

The second best lawyer in Rome is:

Tyrus Ithus

[st.cronin]

The following services are available in the Forum today:

Gallus Clarus, ex-legionnaire
Titus Ludius, ex-legionnaire
Durus Pimpus, dealer in sexual slaves
Animus Sentus, person rumored to be affiliated with the Priesthood
Furius Lucius, former warlord of Gaul, enslaved and now freed
Lexus Postus, owner of many horses
Blakus Fortunatus, owner of many horses

and of course,

Narcizus Lispus
Tyrus Ithus

[Poli]

Hi, Narc. How are you doing?

[st.cronin]

Primer:

Today you must vote to execute either Anxiety or Mustang.

Additionally, you must elect two new Consuls today.

[Narcizo]

Ardent was good.

Execute Anxiety. Three times a charm.

[Poli]

What in the heck are you talking about? I can't play by the rules?

[Autumn]

Sorry guys, I don't know what happened. My arrest order didn't go through. Not that it matters, I think Anxiety's the guy we need to get. I'm trying to catch up ....

[Autumn]

I'm sending a note to St. CRonin to see if we can clear up the problem, I think he didn't notice my arrest order in e-mail.

Frankly, I'm dubious about Narcizo's claim on Ardent. Unfortunately we can't scan him this turn.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I'm sending a note to St. CRonin to see if we can clear up the problem, I think he didn't notice my arrest order in e-mail.

Frankly, I'm dubious about Narcizo's claim on Ardent. Unfortunately we can't scan him this turn.

correct, email was read incorrectly, my fault ... editing posts

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Ardent was good.

Execute Anxiety. Three times a charm.

I've edited this post but please believe that it has nothing to do with the game. I'd also like to apologise to Ardent.

[Autumn]

OK, so now that the arrest went through --

I arrested Mustangus Sallyus. After Ardent and Anxiety I don't have a lot of strong suspects. Mustang was the best I could come up with. It's mostly just based on his play style - he's hung on this far being mostly under the radar, popping in for some pointed comments and then going. At this point in the game that makes me suspicious. He publicly used the sword guy to kill Antmeister, which is a bold move by a traitor, but still. I was glad to have Antus dead, as I suspected him strongly, but given our track record who knows.

I admit it's not much to go by. My main hope was to get Anxiety in jail, so I"ll be voting for him anyway. Give me arrest ideas for today, as we need to dig up somebody.

VOTE TO EXECUTE ABEUS ANXIETUS

[Narcizo]

Vote Chief Rum to Consul
Vote Ironhead to Consul

[Chief Rum]

I'll go with that for now, too, for seasons Narcizo doesn't even know about. I had him as my service from last night, and had him investigate Ironhead. It just didn't seem like we had truly cleared him, and he had been around in a position of wealth and influence without really being cleared.

My investigation turned up no wrongdoings on the part of Ironhead. I specifically went back to cronin and asked him if that was referring to last night alone or the whole game, and cronin said the whole game. I don't remember if anyone ever asked that question before about lawyer scans. IMO, that moves them into an even higher realm of importance, especially with the body of evidence that would have been gathered at this point.

VOTE IRONHEAD CONSUL
VOTE CHIEF RUM CONSUL

Once again, I will have to submit my votes early if I win this, as I work both jobs on Monday and Tuesday. But Nracizo is ineligible, and I'm not sure who else we trust at this point.

VOTE EXECUTE ANXIETY

Does he have nine lives? I guess we'll see.

I attempted to bid for the sword killer today and lost.

BTW, Narcizo beating ardent in a lawsuit suggests post counts aren't the way lawsuits are determined. ardent is ahead of everybody on that scale by two to one.

[st.cronin]

GM note: I am accepting nightfall votes for this day.

[Narcizo]

Vote Nightfall

[Autumn]

Those seem like good choices, I can go with that.

ELECT IRONUS HEADUS TO CONSUL
ELECT CHIEFUS RUMUS TO CONSUL

VOTE NIGHTFALL

[Autumn]

Chief, thanks for scanning Ironhead. Getting some real info to go by helps. If you guys are both traitors we're done for any way :-) I'm willing to trust it.

[Abe Sargent]

Vote Mustang

And Nightfall


Neither really need any explanation

[Mustang]

Vote Anxiety Execute

Although.. at this point I'm about ready to pull a Thelma and Louise and just jump with Anxiety.

[Mustang]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

BTW, Narcizo beating ardent in a lawsuit suggests post counts aren't the way lawsuits are determined. ardent is ahead of everybody on that scale by two to one.

Overall but, what about on that day?

[path12]

ELECT IRONHEAD AND CHIEF RUM CONSUL

TOSS ANXIETY

NIGHTFALL

This game is like one of those dreams where you just cannot get where you're going.

[Ironhead]

Originally Posted by path12

This game is like one of those dreams where you just cannot get where you're going.

QFT.

VOTE IRONHEAD FOR CONSUL
VOTE CHIEF RUM FOR CONSUL

TOSS ANXIETY OFF THE ROCK

[Ironhead]

dola

NIGHTFALL

[st.cronin]

I can end the game now. The Tarquins have won.

The Original 5:

Antmeister
Barkeep49
Grammaticus
Narcizo
Path12


And the convert:

Autumn

Either Mustang or Anxiety was due to get lynched. The Tarqs had control of the assassin and were planning on targeting Passacaglia. The only possible way the game could have been extended is if Ironhead had guarded Passacaglia - and he guarded himself.

[st.cronin]

Mechanics

The lawsuits were based on posts, in a rotating system. The following metrics were used: Total number of game posts, first post after some post made by me, or ratio of game posts to forum posts. The precise metric varied each day, but it was the same for everybody each day.

There was one fake bodyguard available each day, and one real - I flipped a coin each day to decide which one was which. The same for the messengers - one of them would deliver the message, the other would get lost.

[st.cronin]

Lawyers

The lawyers effect on the treason trials changed as the game went on. I had a formula to change the votes, and one of the elements was the total number of murders. The effect was that, early in the game, ANY player with a lawyer would have been acquitted. Late in the game, ANY player being prosecuted by a lawyer would be convicted.

Murders
Each of the original Tarqs were allowed to make one kill each. After that they would need to hire an assasin, and rely on the lynch.

After they had used all their kills, they were also allowed to pool their resources, for a single bid.

[Ironhead]

Defo had my suspicions of Path and Narcizo. Wouldn't have pegged the others though.

[st.cronin]

Observations: Every single game day, there were players who did not submit bids. Also, every day there were services that NOBODY bid for. Example, on day 2, nobody bid on a single lawyer, even though it was now clear what they did. This game was definitely winnable for the village, had they talked a little bit more about this element of the game. The wolves were also very disorganized, sometimes bidding against each other.

I am interested in hearing everybody's comments - I think this game was maybe a little bit TOO hard for some people.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Mustang

Overall but, what about on that day?

True, I don't know that. Do you think st. cronin is keeping track of that?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

True, I don't know that. Do you think st. cronin is keeping track of that?

lol, okay, ignore that.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I can end the game now. The Tarquins have won.

The Original 5:

Antmeister
Barkeep49
Grammaticus
Narcizo
Path12


And the convert:

Autumn

Either Mustang or Anxiety was due to get lynched. The Tarqs had control of the assassin and were planning on targeting Passacaglia. The only possible way the game could have been extended is if Ironhead had guarded Passacaglia - and he guarded himself.

I'll never trust Narcizo again. Ouch. Every time I tried to talk myself into buying that he was bad or Gramm was bad (yes, had my suspicions there, too), I thought I found someone better. I kept doing the "we can check out Narc another day".

Obviously, Narc was lying about the duke ability. That should have been another indicator to me. He didn't necessasrily do it to save Anxiety. He did it to save path. He probably put in his bid hours before the deadline, knowing that if path got tossed and came up bad, it could be the final first key step we villagers needed.

If I had followed that logic backward, it would have been obvious. But I didn't, and that just brought us down.

I would like to see the bids made every day. Most of the Tarqs were not rich enough through most of the game to nab some of the services I feel they did.

st. cronin, I do think this game was too hard and the lack of information played right into Tarq hands. It was winnable for the village, yes, but I think it was a mistake to not give hard reveals. There was next to no concrete information in this game. I basically we feel we had almost no chance in this game unless we got a lucky break.

I'm not taking anything away from the masterful plays of the Tarqs, particularly Narcizo, but this was bent toward them far too much, IMO.

I enjoyed much of the experience, but I will admit I got very tired of things in the last few days.Thanks for running a game as intriguing as this. I don't know how many more of these games I could take, though.

[Chief Rum]

I particularly want to know what happened on the day the top two were Anxiety and ardent and Anxiety bid for the sword killer and didn't get him, and ardent didn't bid at all. How did the sword killer get past Anxiety? Was that the day the Tarqs pooled their resources?

[hoopsguy]

When was Autumn converted?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Okay, here is the game opening wealth list. I have included notes on who is dead and who hired Day One services:

****

The wealthiest men in Rome are:

Bulletus Spongeus-- DEAD (vouched to be good by AE & Schmidty)-- Won service of legionnaire
Dodgus Erchickus-- won service of Ardent
Imus Thecrewus-- DEAD (vouched to be good by AE)--claimed to not bid on any services

The following Senators are known to be extremely wealthy:

Coffeus Yakus Warlordus-- won service of Swaggs
Ironsus Headus-- won service of priests
Lonestarus Girlus-- not too active
Marcus Vaughnus (replaced by Passacaglia)-- not too active
Schmidtyus Schmidtyus-- DEAD (definitely good)

The following Senators are known to be moderately wealthy:

Abeus Anxietus-- won service of horse owner
Antus Meisterus
Autumnus Leavus
Barkeepus Valerius Fortynineus
Pathus Twelveus
Peregrinus Barbarus
Snus Dvlus-- DEAD (definitely good)
Westvus Fanus (replaced by Mustang)

The following (remaining) Senators are of ordinary wealth for the Senatorial class:

Alanus Teeus-- DEAD (definitely good)-- won service of horse owner
Ardentus Enthusiastus-- Won service if legionnaire
Chiefus Rumus
Daddyus Torgous
Grammus Atticus
Hoopus Guyus
Kayus Whitus
Narcizus Lispus
Neonus Chaosus
Saldanus Lathumus-- DEAD (unknown)
Swaggus Swaggus-- DEAD (definitely good)
Tyrus Ithus

From hoops, services gired below:

Services won for Day One

Day 1:
Gallus Clarus, ex-legionnaire (Ardent)
Titus Ludius, ex-legionnaire (Bullet)
Durus Pimpus, dealer in sexual slaves
Animus Sentus, person rumored to be affiliated with the Priesthood (Ironhead)
Furius Lucius, former warlord of Gaul, enslaved and now freed
Lexus Postus, owner of many horses (Alan)
Blakus Fortunatus, owner of many horses (Anxiety)
Swaggus Swaggus (Coffee)
Ardentus Enthusiastus (Dodgerchick)

*****

Some of this guesswork, but I don't think there is anything above we are assuming too much here. We know where most of the services went. We know wealth is how service hiring is determined. We're fairly certain the ex-warlord is the sword killer, seemingly confirmed now by Coffee Warlord, if we had a doubt. The only dead person we have a real doubt on for allegiance is saldana, and he was too low on the wealth totem pole at the beginning to be likely to win a service anyway.

Someone hired the warlord on Day One, someone who used that warlord to murder Swaggs. A Tarq. It had to be someone with enough wealth to outbid others. It would help us tons if we knew of anyone we can confirm as good as having bid on the warlord and failed on Day One. We can then eliminate everyone below that person as being the Day One sword killer patron (although certainly not as a Tarq).

The top tier is pretty clear. DC said she hired AE. No one has denied this. She hasn't said anything to my knowledge that hasn't checked out.

Bullet and ITC are both almost certainly good, and the only way they aren't is if ardent is bad. I think that's a stretch right now (that ardent is bad), because he would have had to be playing a brilliant game so far to get this far without more suspicion. Plus, Schmidty is guaranteed good (killed by Tarqs), and he confirmed bullet's goodness. Finally, ITC himself stated he didn't bid on any services on Day One (or Day Two or Day Three, way to go). So the sword killer patron is not in the top tier.

In the next tier, Coffee Warlod's hirng of Swaggs was confirmed by st. cronin. Schmidty, as mentioned, is confirmed good. Ironhead has a lot of evidence in his favor for being good, and everything he has said that could be has checked out. That leaves Marc Vaughan and LSG from this tier. LSG posted on Day One and not since. She may have put in an order for the killer and used it and then gone away (for whatever reason), but regardless, she is already under arrest. I think we should throw her off the rock anyway; this possibility she is the sword killer patron is only a further excuse to do it. MV hasn't posted at all, or maybe once, and now he has been replaced by Pass. Pass also stood in for him on Day One. It's possible Pass sent in a bid and kill order for MV. But if MV was a wolf, I believe, he would have been repalced sooner than four days in. My point is, I think LSG and MV are longshots to be the sword kilelr patron (but possible).

That puts us into the next group, and the group I think we need to make our primary focus as being where our sword killer patron is hiding. Anxiety claimed to hire horses and no one denied it. Did he send a message and someone confirmed? I forget. But I believe he hired the horse owner. SnDvls is confirmed good by death at the hands of the Tarqs. And WVU Fan was a consul and didn't do a thing and was replaced. I think it's unlikely he was the sword killer patron from Day One.

That leaves this group: Anthmeister, Autumn, Barkeep, Path12 and Peregrine.

Some of these guys have already been bandied about abit. Barkeep's unfortunate circumstance tonight certainly muddies his waters as well. We have a Tarq in this group, guys, at least one. I almost guarantee it. I think Alan T was extremely fortunate to nab a service in the tier lower than that. He got lucky with that. I doubt greatly the warlord fell past this group.

I have given five (plus Passacaglia if you think he could have put in a kill order for MV on Monday). I would welcome discussion of all five as potential Tarqs. Two of them should be the targets of our arrests. Two others should be the targets of our scans.

Note, this is my post detailing my analysis of who could have hired the Day One sword killer. This is probably the only post int he whole thread that ahd the Tarqs shitting their pants. Three of the five originals are here, and if Autumn was converted, he's here, too.

Of course, I was only thinking there was one. I believe Antmeister was eventually killed because of this post, so I guess I can take a little credit for that.

I am grasping for any victory straws I can pull out.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Obviously, Narc was lying about the duke ability. That should have been another indicator to me. He didn't necessasrily do it to save Anxiety. He did it to save path. He probably put in his bid hours before the deadline, knowing that if path got tossed and came up bad, it could be the final first key step we villagers needed.

If I had followed that logic backward, it would have been obvious. But I didn't, and that just brought us down

Actually Narc did not use his veto. Mustang had purchased the clerical official, and used that to force a veto.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

When was Autumn converted?

He was converted the same time DaddyTorgo was arrested, I believe day VII.

[Chief Rum]

We were hurt also by Narcizo's schedule. His absences were easily explainable in RL, being in Sweden. So he didn't have to explain why his reveals always came after ardent's. Everyone knew he wouldn't check in until late at night.

MVP has to go to Narcizo and Autumn in second. Barcizo for obvious reasons. Autumn was the only one of the six I never seriously suspected (although like Ironhead if I had gotten another lawyer scan, he might have been scanned next).

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Actually Narc did not use his veto. Mustang had purchased the clerical official, and used that to force a veto.

Wait a sec. So the priest doesn't compel a vote, it compels a decision?

So Mustang could have controleld someone else's service usew if he knew what it was and so desired? He could have forced the arrest of someone different?

[Ironhead]

I made a mistake that could have probably changed the course of the game for the village. The night that Anxiety and DaddyTorgo were in jail I had the services of Ardent. I arrested Path12 that night, ordered a scan on him with Ardent and also assigned Ardent to the senate to prosecute DT. St.Cronin PMed and told me I had to chose how I wanted to use Ardent. I decided to use him to prosecute DT because up to then we had no info on how lawyer use really worked. :-(

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I particularly want to know what happened on the day the top two were Anxiety and ardent and Anxiety bid for the sword killer and didn't get him, and ardent didn't bid at all. How did the sword killer get past Anxiety? Was that the day the Tarqs pooled their resources?

If Ardent had bid for the sword he would have won it. The way the "pooling" worked was - take the highest rated Tarq and subtract 3, 1.5, and .5 for each successive contributor. The number would never go lower than 1.5. Anxiety was 2. There was another day when KWhit thought he was 1, but was actually 2 (DC I think was 1).

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Wait a sec. So the priest doesn't compel a vote, it compels a decision?

So Mustang could have controleld someone else's service usew if he knew what it was and so desired? He could have forced the arrest of someone different?

No, the veto was considered a type of VOTE.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

If Ardent had bid for the sword he would have won it. The way the "pooling" worked was - take the highest rated Tarq and subtract 3, 1.5, and .5 for each successive contributor. The number would never go lower than 1.5. Anxiety was 2. There was another day when KWhit thought he was 1, but was actually 2 (DC I think was 1).

Huh? Not sure I follow that. Could you explain the wealth system?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Huh? Not sure I follow that. Could you explain the wealth system?

Oh, and are you saying the Tarqs did pool that day or didn't?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Huh? Not sure I follow that. Could you explain the wealth system?

For example, on the last day, the ranking looked like this:

1 Grammaticus
2 Autumn
3 Ironhead
4 Tyrith
5 Narcizo
6 Anxiety
7 Chief Rum
8 Mustang
9 Path12
10 Passacaglia

So if Ironhead (3) and Tyrith (4) bid for the same item, Ironhead would win (lower #). Its a pretty simple system, but apparently hard to explain, as most of the players asked me to clarify at some point.

So the way the "pooling" might work is that if Narcizo and Path bid for that same item, they would win instead (subtract 3 from 5 (Narcizo's #), and get 2, lower than 3 (Ironhead's #).

[st.cronin]

The Tarqs pooled every day that they could, but the exact way the bonus worked was kept from them. I think they only pooled ALL their resources on one item once, but they pooled in some way every day.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

For example, on the last day, the ranking looked like this:

1 Grammaticus
2 Autumn
3 Ironhead
4 Tyrith
5 Narcizo
6 Anxiety
7 Chief Rum
8 Mustang
9 Path12
10 Passacaglia

So if Ironhead (3) and Tyrith (4) bid for the same item, Ironhead would win (lower #). Its a pretty simple system, but apparently hard to explain, as most of the players asked me to clarify at some point.

So the way the "pooling" might work is that if Narcizo and Path bid for that same item, they would win instead (subtract 3 from 5 (Narcizo's #), and get 2, lower than 3 (Ironhead's #).

But they could only pool once in the game, right? What hapepened if they bid on the same item again? And how much of all this did the Tarqs know to start?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

But they could only pool once in the game, right? What hapepened if they bid on the same item again? And how much of all this did the Tarqs know to start?

No. They could pool every day starting on day VI. There were 5 original Tarqs - each with one kill.

When they had used all their kills they got a notice that they could then start pooling their bids.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

The Tarqs pooled every day that they could, but the exact way the bonus worked was kept from them. I think they only pooled ALL their resources on one item once, but they pooled in some way every day.

They could pool in some form every day? Wow, st. cronin, that is just way too powerful. Not only could they put ina strong bid for a critical service every day, but it simply blows up any attempt to use the public rule set on wealth and service bidding to logically analyse the results.

Perhaps if we knew about the pooling possibility, that might have been better. But without that, there was no chance we could put the bidding information together to make things make sense. It also means all the work I put into getting that plan going and implemented was basically worthless. Ouch.

[Chief Rum]

We're obviously cross posting here, BTW. Sorry if posts put out ehre are coming after you have answered the question as it related to a previous post.