Defense Wins Championships

[revrew]

By now it has been established that a dominating offense in FOF can win games, perhaps even championships, without an equal defense to back it up. But what about the other way 'round?

Though I sincerely doubt a dominating defense could win a league championship in MP without at least a solid offense, the SP AI is just stupid enough, it might work. Plus, it's about time a dynasty on this FOF board had something to do with FOF

So, as MP revealed I was better at building defenses than offenses, I set up an experiment to see if I could learn even more about defensive gameplanning. Thus, the following dynasty will build over-heavy on defense and provide little to no chance for me to tweak the offensive side of the ball (except for cohesion, I suppose, which I will naturally attempt to build). In fact, the offense will deliberately suck. The goal: To win an SP championship on defense only.

House rules:

I. Game Setup

A. Equalized finances to eliminate any financial advantage in beginning
B. Start with complete draft of newly generated players, but allow scouts to make all picks - a completely blind, new universe
C. Up injury setting to 150, to better imitate real life
D. Immediately cut all offensive players and sign new offensive squad per rules below

II. Game play/Roster building

A. No offensive player may be:

1. Drafted in any of the first 3 rounds
2. Obtained by trade at any time
3. Signed as an FA at any time if current OR potential rating is greater than 40
4. Resigned or renegotiated if current rating exceeds 40

B. No defensive player may change position to offense
C. No rules govern acquisition of defensive players, kickers or punters

III. Game planning

A. All offensive depth charts and game plans are established simply by hitting the "recommend" feature on all screens, thus allowing AI full control over offense
B. Special teams depth charts, activations and gameplans, however, may be fully tweaked
C. No rules govern defensive depth charts or game plans

Of course, it would be even more offensively crippling, even more demonstrative of "defense wins championships" if I created even harsher rules for the offense, such as cutting the entire squad every year or playing only with rookies on offense, or some such thing. But it might create problems where I can't field a full roster. And more importantly, that would stray so far from IRL, that it would just kill the immersion factor for me. So we'll see if we can instead build a Monsters of the Midway on defense and Bad News Bears on offense and still win a SuperBowl.

Hmm. I think I just found which team I need to play as ...

[nilodor]

Good luck, I'm excited to see how this turns out!

[MacroGuru]

I am very interested as I am taking a defensive approach in my MP leagues I am in from now until the new version is released and they move over to it, reason is, I want to have some fun messing around with things.

[revrew]

Thanks, guys! Doing a dynasty is WAY more fun with readers and occasional feedback.

[revrew]

My strategy

OFFENSE:

Even with the strict rules handicapping offense above, there are a few things I can still do to create an offensive advantage.

1. Cohesion. Find young, strong position leaders early and start building cohesion. As many affinity guys as I can find, as their ratings are going to stink anyway.
2. Seek a QB who avoids turnovers. The least I can do is make sure the defense doesn't have too many short fields.
3. And speaking of field position, I need a killer punter and kicker.
4. And speaking of special teams, I'll be looking for ST aces on offense, so I don't have to waste prime defensive slots with ST studs. Sometimes a great kick/punt returner can be found whose other ratings stink. If that keeps him below the 40-rating cap, that'll be a gem worth signing.
5. Get the best dang coach and OC we can

DEFENSE:

Here's the real meat of the thing. A couple key decisions will guide this experiment:

1. I'll be using a version of the Gandalf defense ("You shall not pass!") I rode to a league championship in the GEFL and modified for my IHOF championship team. I want to keep scores low to protect my anemic offense, so the emphasis will be on forcing opponents to run and taking away the pass. More about the Gandalf defense in my next post.
2. I'll also build my more experimental 4-4 defense, which was borne from lessons learned in MP, but was never really tested in that arena. In the SP experience, however, it's been dominating.

[revrew]

Inside the defensive huddle

In the glory days of the GEFL, when Subby was tearing it up with his high-flying Washington Redskins, my Denver Broncos (especially after the late, great Steve Atwater trade fiasco) turned instead to defense. Through some careful experimentation, the Gandalf defense ("You shall not pass!") was born, and it tore up the league. No one had an answer for it, and even Subby found his 'Skins slowed down by it. Eventually, when paired with the rushing attack of Tiki Barber, the Broncos, Steve Atwater and the Gandalf defense won a champsionship.

In the IHOF, however, the level of competition stepped up. Not nearly as predictable as the owners of the GEFL, the IHOF gang forced the Gandalf into some adjustments that limited its effectiveness. For example, GEFL opponents typically ran the ball or threw short passes on 1st down. The original Gandalf actually carried a run expectancy of 100% on 1st down, which forced opponents into 2nd and long or 3rd and long, where the Gandalf really shined. Ben's IHOF Tucker Tigers, however, liked to throw long on 1st down, which completely messed up this element of the Gandalf. Still, with a hat tip to Kodos, who convinced me to purposely move our best CB to the #2 spot, the Gandalf was refined and helped deliver my Boston Rhinos several division titles and an eventual IHOF championship. Never as effective in the high-flying IHOF as it was in the GEFL, nonetheless, the Rhinos defense was perpetually in the IHOF's top 5, using a modified version of the Gandalf.

The never-before-revealed key philosophies of the Gandalf are below:

A. It runs out of a base 4-3. Less popular than the 3-4 because there's no 20-sack WLB, the Gandalf gets its pass rush instead from the RDE and DTs. Specifically, the RDE doesn't need anything but elite pass rush technique. In the GEFL, Denver's K.C. "the Samurai" Sakurai carried an overall rating of 39, if I remember correctly, but routinely put up 12-18 sacks per year, because of his spike in pass rush technique.

B. The Gandalf requires an SLB that can pass defend the TEs, specifically in zone. WLB is a virtually irrelevant position, in fact, no pass rush is needed from the LBs at all - let the 3-4 teams pay big money for pass-rushing LBs, you don't need them. Your best overall player, however, is probably playing at SLB.

C. Most significantly, however, the Gandalf is all about the secondary. It's based on studies that show M2M defense is generally the least effective and the 3-zone defense is the generally the most effective. My experience with the Gandalf has anecdotally supported this evidence. Therefore:

1. Starting corners need giant ratings in zone and passable ratings in BnR. M2M is irrelevant, except that your top CBs may well have decent M2M ratings because you want top-level players. At least one great INT guy is helpful.
2. Nickel and dime corners are chosen for their high zone ability only, as the Gandalf is exclusively zone in long-yardage situations. They often come cheap, keeping your money invested in your top guys.
3. Safeties aren't just important; they're crucial. I firmly believe most GMs greatly undervalue the safety position. The SS must be dominating on run defense and zone coverage. Zone, zone, zone. The FS must be dominating on zone and INTs.

D. The Gandalf rarely blitzes. Why bother? The LBs never get to the QB in a 4-3 anyway, no matter how good their ratings, and I need them dropping back into zone anyway. MLB has to gobble up run, play diagnose, play some zone. SLB does it all (except pass rush).

E. Sub in pass-rushing DTs in the dime

F. Double-team the top WR 100% of the time, all the time. Then place your best, most INT-grabbing CB on the #2 WR. It forces more targets toward your best picker, who will usually have an advantage over the other guy's #2 WR anyway.

G. Split between BnR and 3-man zone in most running situations, with a higher leaning toward the 3-man and 4-man zone in long passing downs. Never run M2M. Ever. Zone/man mix coverages only sparingly.

More about the experimental 4-4 defense in next post ...

[sjshaw]

Thanks for doing this, rev.

[revrew]

The new 4-4 hybrid: It's not what you think

OK, here's where we start to have some fun, or as Monty Python said, "Now for something completely different ..."

The 4-4 FOF defense was actually inspired by the 2013 IRL NFL rookie draft, as my analysis caused me to drool over drafting 2 players, Kenny Vaccaro (went to Saints) and Alex Ogletree (went to Rams). I coveted building a defense with both of these players and envisioned a defense with 4 down lineman, 2 inside backers, one deep safety, and a pair of Safety/LB hybrids patrolling the outside. As many NFL teams are now moving into a nearly base nickel defense anyway, I dreamed up schemes of how this "heavy nickel" 4-4 could work.

Translating it to FOF, however, was a bit of a challenge. Still, I found a way to approximate it:

1. 4-3 base defense gives me my 4 down linemen.
2. But it plays in in the nickel nearly 100% of the time, except when we swap to Goalline or Dime, thus I have my 2 "inside" linebackers.
3. A dominating SS (ala Kenny Vaccaro) plays as the nickel back, thus giving me the safety/LB hybrid I covet. The other SS is likwise a run-stuffing hybrid. As the Gandalf also requires a solid FS, this is a VERY safety-heavy defense. Since they come cheaper than CBs or LBs, I'm all for it.
4. MLB and DTs need to be able to gobble up runners, because we're playing nickel vs. the run way too often.
5. WLB - Who needs 'em? They're never on the field, except in Goalline. So 1 decent run-stuffer can fill that role.

In experimental SP seasons, this philosophy, coupled with the Gandalf, led to very low-scoring opponents, as the offense never really caught us off-guard with the long pass. We're always in nickel!

But can the 4-4 and Gandalf win a championship virtually by themselves? Time to find out ...

[Autumn]

This is great, Rev, I'm interested in seeing how an all-defense team will do. And your 4-4 is exactly what I've started experimenting with so I'm dying to get some info on how it's gone for you.

[revrew]

Originally Posted by Autumn

This is great, Rev, I'm interested in seeing how an all-defense team will do. And your 4-4 is exactly what I've started experimenting with so I'm dying to get some info on how it's gone for you.

Thanks, Autumn! I've had some success with it in SP, though never tried in MP. Might be curious to try, however, as it uses a safety rather than LB (usually a cheaper move), and seems to be more effective against passing attacks.

We'll see if in this dynasty it can stop run as well ...

[nilodor]

Certainly enjoying your discussions of your strategy so far. It's quite interesting to see where your experience has taken you as far as gameplanning. I look forward to seeing how well it works out. You're not a browns fan are you?

[revrew]

Originally Posted by nilodor

Certainly enjoying your discussions of your strategy so far. It's quite interesting to see where your experience has taken you as far as gameplanning. I look forward to seeing how well it works out. You're not a browns fan are you?

Browns? Aw, heck no.

Though I have a buddy who's a diehard.

Truthfully, the 2nd full NFL game I ever saw was Elway's "The Drive" game against Cleveland. That experience got me hooked on the Broncos, and I've been loyal ever since. So, the Browns of olden days, with Kosar at QB, were a hated enemy.

Thanks for the kudos, y'all. It's good to see some folks still enthusiastic about FOF, MP or no.

[revrew]

Opening Day:

Given my determination to build a "Monsters of the Midway" defense and "Bad News Bears" offense, for better or worse, we take over with the Chicago Bears and immediately cut all offensive players.

Here's what we have left:

WLB Dexter Lucas from Texas Christian. In only his second year, he's rated 59/80, with green bars maxed out in Run Defense and Play Diagnosis. He's a bit low on zone defense (43), but at 6'3" 256, he can transfer to MLB or SLB nicely. This is a young, solid stud, but it will be a tough call which position he plays (sure as heck won't be WLB!).

LDE Ben Erickson from Oregon State. He's a 6-year veteran rated 72/72 overall, 100 in run defense, idolized by fans. He'd be no good as our RDE, but as a LDE he will do very nicely. A solid building block.

RCB Dexter Craig, also from Oregon State. A 6-year veteran rated 55/55, who specializes in zone and kick returning. Yessir, you can be our #2 or #3 CB.

Fan favorite RDT Timothy Emmons, 42/56 is a 4th year player who can be in our rotation, but doesn't have the pass rush ability to be a star. Still, good role player.

SS Charles Talley, 56/56, isn't good enough to captain our safety squad, but as he specializes in zone, BNR and INTs, we may move him back to FS, where his 5'10, 197 frame will be better suited.

A couple of older players still good enough I hope we can get some good trade value next season. But as the trade market is all dried up, we'll keep most of them and trade in the offseason.

And ... our kickers suck.

Summary:
Very excited to have Lucas in the fold, Erickson is a plus, and we have some solid role players. But this is far from the 4-4 Gandalf it needs to be. Rebuilding, here we come. We now have 54 million to start building from the scrap heap ...

Next post: We hire some bums off the street to play offense

[revrew]

Our new offense:

Despite a superior veteran on the roster, coach likes rookie QB Patrick Richardson out of tiny Wayne State (Neb.), who signed just for affinity. Rated 10/28 and behind a hideous O-line, perhaps only his scrambling ability will save him.

At RB, Joel Snyder out of BYU has some breakaway speed and steps into the starting role. If there was anything even remotely looking like an O-line in front of him, he might be able to put up yards.

At WR, our position leader Donnell Ellis is talented after the catch, but he couldn't run a route to save his life, so he won't see many balls tossed his way. Still, someone has to catch the ball when we're playing catchup.

The O-line pickings were bad. Really bad. We'll likely fire everyone and rebuild next year out of necessity.

On defense:

Some leftover veterans, namely CB Barry Westbrook (67/67) and SLB Jon Groh (47/52), will help out this year but be gone next year, as they're growing old in the tooth.

Managing our young stud Dexter Lucas was a question mark, but given the potential of a 100 rating at both Run Defense and Play Diagnosis, I chose to move him to MLB.

We don't have the personnel to play the 4-4 yet, but our defense has some depth.

Anticipation: 3 wins. Tops.

[sterlingice]

I know this might sound silly, but I would think having a good kicker and punter would be really important if you have no offense

SI

[revrew]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I know this might sound silly, but I would think having a good kicker and punter would be really important if you have no offense

SI

Absolutely. In fact, in the strategy post above, I wrote:

3. And speaking of field position, I need a killer punter and kicker.

Alas, the FA options were nonexistent and teams weren't really open to trade. We will get best we can get ASAP, but we're going to suffer this first season.

[sterlingice]

Whoops- totally missed that post. Sometimes I just go to OT so I miss some updates with the "new posts" arrow

SI

[revrew]

PRESEASON 1:

(AT) SAN DIEGO

The 44 Gandalf comes out in our first preseason game like a ball o' fire, as our opponents have their first two drives end in INTs we return to inside their 20. Rookie QB Patrick Richardson turns them both into touchdowns, and within 10 plays total, we're up 14-0.

On defense, most impressive performance comes from starting RDE Jason Tilton, a journeyman FA (5-year vet, 17/26) we picked up in FA as best pass rusher available. 1 sack, 1 blocked pass, 1 knockdown, and 4 hurries.

Defense holds them to under 50% completion, only 152 yards in air, and Bears win, 31-14.

vs. OAKLAND

Offense falls back to earth, the load spread around a bunch of scrubs.

Defensively, however, we're strong again, holding the Raiders to around 50% completion and only 155 yards in the air. No stars in this contest, but forcing punts in the fourth quarter gives us the ball at midfield twice, resulting in a pair of late touchdowns. Bears win, 20-13.

We lose RDE Jason Tilton, however, for 5 weeks. Normally, I'd say no big deal. But he was pretty good in PreWeek1.

vs. ARIZONA

The Cardinals grind us away on the ground with 37 rushing attempts. Bears offense is worse than ever, slowly losing field position, and Arizona wins with field goals, 19-3.

Best game came from star MLB Dexter Lucas, who tallied 10 tackles, a sack and a pass defensed.

at CLEVELAND

Oh, my. Bears offense nets 94 yards. Total. Starting RB Joel Snyder is actually having a decent preseason, but our passing game is so bad, we can rarely afford to give him the ball.

On an even more alarming note, the Browns rush for 286 yards in the game on 48 carries. Until we have the talent base, the 44 Gandalf will be very, very susceptible to the run.

Aging, but solid veteran CB Barry Westbrook plays a solid game with a pair of INTs and 2 more defensed, but he can't make up for the sad performance from the rest of the team. Browns win, 20-10.

RECAP

Eh, what can you really learn from the preseason? We finish 2-2, and the most points scored against us in any one game is 20. That's cause for optimism. The offense ... is even worse than imagined.

We're dead last in preseason ratings. The only glimmer of hope is that the Packers, Vikes and Lions are also ranked in the bottom half of the league.

[revrew]

REGULAR SEASON 1

Despite his excellent first outing, rookie QB Patrick Richardson apparently couldn't hold down the job after a series of miserable performances in preseason weeks 2-4. Chicago coach Rex Sullivan has agreed with me that veteran QB Preston Dean should get the starting nod in week 1. He'll be supported by RB Joel Snyder, a woeful O-line, and a group of receivers led buy undersized FL Percy Adams and even more undersized SE Donnell Ellis. Yeah, that doesn't look good.

On defense, we're without both starting DEs because of injuries, which takes all the teeth out of our pass rush. The secondary is beat up, too, so our success may come down to the play of MLB Dexter Lucas. Shortly, however, DE Ben Erickson will return from injury, and with veteran CB Barry Westbrook patrolling the outfield, we may get some big plays.

Week 1: vs. Detroit

FL Percy Adams is targeted 18 times, but only catches 6 balls. Our offense is awful, and suddenly one game makes an 0-16 record look not only possible, but likely.

On defense, CB Barry Westbrook forces 2 turnovers and the Bears hold the Lions to only 169 yards in the air, but it means little when our QB throws 3 INTs and barely completes a third of his passes.

Detroit wins easy, 31-10.

-----------------

Week 2: Chicago (0-1) at Dallas (1-0)

Every one of our possessions in the 1st half ended in a punt, with no more than 18 yards gained on any one possession. Oh, my, do we need an offensive overhaul. Well, it's coming.

Defensively, we're getting a strong season so far from SLB Jake Brock. He had 8 tackles, a sack and an INT in this contest. Rated 51/53 in his 4th year, Jake is a solid prospect that most teams would like as a role player. But he isn't good enough to play SLB in the 44 Gandalf. At least, I don't think so ...

We held Dallas to 17 points in this one, but our offense couldn't manage more than 10. Another week, another loss.

[revrew]

Week 3: Green Bay (1-1) at Chicago (0-2)

Nothing pretty to see in the offense here, but kudos to the defense!

MLB Dexter Lucas gives us 8 tackles, DE Ben Erickson gave us a sack and a few hurries, FS Charles Talley batted down 3 balls, but player of the game is CB Barry Westbrook didn't allow a single completion, defended a pair of passes and grabbed a game-sealing INT on the Packers' final drive of the day.

This is the only way we're going to win games for a while, keeping the score down. Chicago WINS! Score: 9-6.

----------------

Week 4: Chicago (1-2) at NY Giants (2-1)

Things were looking up in this one, as the Bears were winning with 3 minutes left to play. The defense completely shut things down for the Giants until their final drive, when they went 78 yards for the win.

MLB Dexter Lucas led us in tackles again, but no big plays to speak of from anywhere else. A great defensive effort goes to waste, final score, Giants win 17-12.

QUARTERLY REPORT:
Rushing: #29 in the league
Passing: #30
Scoring: #31

Rush defense: #22
Pass defense: #10
Points against: #13

Turnover margin: #7

[revrew]

Week 5: Chicago (1-3) at Carolina (3-1)

Our QB play got so bad in this one, coach yanked Preston and put in QB Patrick Richardson. Didn't matter, 3 INTs and 2/10 on 3rd downs kill us.

Too bad, too, because the defense held the Panthers to only 106 yards in the air. Of course, the 195 on the ground was enough to do us in. A pattern is clearly emerging, as MLB Dexter Lucas leads us in tackles and Barry Westbrook plays well in the secondary.

Still, a rough loss, 24-9

----------

Week 6: Seattle (4-0) at Chicago (1-4)

Seattle is chewing up the league, so we expect to get blown out. But we open the scoring with a safety, and the Seahawks passing game can't even muster 50% passing against our D, so the game is on!

Unfortunately, the offense is woefully anemic, can't do anything behind that line, and our receivers can't make plays after the catch.

Defense is sounding like a broken record, as MLB Dexter Lucas gobbles up a team-leading 10 tackles and CB Barry Westbrook hauls in another INT. Young RDE Jason Tilton gets a couple of sacks, but in the end, it's just not enough.

We lose one that should have been a blowout but is surprisingly close, 15-12.

[revrew]

Week 7: Washington (2-4) at Chicago (1-5)

This one is all field goals, 7 total between the two teams and no touchdowns scored.

But we manage a whole 8 first downs, complete only 12 passes to our guys, 2 to theirs. Only bright spot is RB Kelly Hayes, who we picked up off the waiver wire after some injuries earlier in the season. He has speed and turned out to be our leading rusher, with 93 yards, and receiver.

Defense - exactly the same: MLB Dexter Lucas gobbles up a team-leading 10 tackles and CB Barry Westbrook hauls in another INT. Westbrook has 5 picks in 7 games, and is second in the NFL.

Alas, 6 of those field goals were theirs, to only 1 of ours, and we lose, 18-3.

-------------

Week 8: Chicago (1-6) at Buffalo (1-6)

CB Dexter Craig returns from injury for this NFL toilet bowl, and RB Kelly Hayes turns in another electrifying performance, but the Bad News Bears literally fumble this one away.

MLB Dexter Lucas racks up 14 tackles, but our pass defense doesn't do it's usual job.

We drop a heartbreaker, but move closer to the #1 overall pick, 20-14.

HALFWAY REPORT
Rushing: #31 in the league
Passing: #25
Scoring: #31

Rush defense: #28
Pass defense: #1 - Yay, Gandalf!
Points against: #14

Turnover margin: #26. Youch.

[revrew]

So, the comments have slowed down a little bit. Looking for some feedback.

Are readers getting bogged down in individual games, want to move faster? Less detail?

Or do you want more narrative flair? Change format?

If you have any advice on what would make this dynasty more readable, let me know, and I'll try to accomodate.

[Coffee Warlord]

Just because I'm not commenting doesn't mean i'm not reading. It do be interesting - format's fine.

[britrock88]

No changes needed here.

[revrew]

Cool, guys. Thanks! Just for the record for everybody, I'm open to suggestions as we move forward.

[sterlingice]

Looks good to me. But the first season or two is just going to be a slog.

It's got the right amount of detail for me- get a few notes about each game so you can start to keep tabs on a few players- and get the gist of how the game went.

SI

[revrew]

Week 9: Minnesota (3-5) at Chicago (1-7)

Well, look who found an offense! QB Preston Dean completes 13 of 18 and the runningback committee gobbles up about 4.5 ypc, fueling some points on the board.

On defense, still very susceptible to the run, but CBs Dexter Craig (back from injury) and Barry Westbrook grab an INT apiece, Westbrook running his back 91 yards for a touchdown.

We play like a much better team across the board and WIN, 26-9.

Week 10: Chicago (2-7) at Miami (4-5)

Again the offense plays a bit better, but Oline surrenders 7 sacks and we lose 3 fumbles with a pick. Can't win like that.

Defense surrenders only 162 yards in air, but nearly same on the ground. MLB Dexter Lucas leads us in tackles again, and CB Dexter Craig - hmm, 2 Dexters, the "Dex connects" - grabs an INT. Nothing we can do in the face of their game-changing plays on defense, however, Bears lose, 23-10.

[MacroGuru]

Question, at the WLB are you slapping in a WLB or a true safety or is it 100% Nickel type formation?

[revrew]

Originally Posted by MacroGuru

Question, at the WLB are you slapping in a WLB or a true safety or is it 100% Nickel type formation?

I'm running almost 100% Nickel, per the 4-4 philosophy outlined earlier. On extreme rushing situations, I do put in a goalline with a legit WLB. And on extreme passing situations, I swap out to dime, but the base defense is a nickel.

Eventually, we'll add a couple of run-gobbling strong safeties, and we'll start to see opponents' rushing attacks brought under control. But right now, with very little talent at DT, the running backs are breaking through, and with no safeties, they're breaking big runs.

This is the big test of the 4-4. Equipped with the Gandalf gameplan, I'm confident the 4-4 will be dominating against the pass. But can it slow down the run, too, or will it just be a gimmick defense to stop the pass?

[MacroGuru]

Originally Posted by revrew

I'm running almost 100% Nickel, per the 4-4 philosophy outlined earlier. On extreme rushing situations, I do put in a goalline with a legit WLB. And on extreme passing situations, I swap out to dime, but the base defense is a nickel.

Eventually, we'll add a couple of run-gobbling strong safeties, and we'll start to see opponents' rushing attacks brought under control. But right now, with very little talent at DT, the running backs are breaking through, and with no safeties, they're breaking big runs.

This is the big test of the 4-4. Equipped with the Gandalf gameplan, I'm confident the 4-4 will be dominating against the pass. But can it slow down the run, too, or will it just be a gimmick defense to stop the pass?

Looking at the dime you could run almost a 4-2-5 type defense and probably focus on stopping the pass.

Another question. Are you seeing fatigue as an issue with your players that are in the Nickel? Are subs happening?

Reason I ask back before the latest update, when I ran a pure nickel defense I noticed I never subbed and my starters were wearing out faster than usual.

[revrew]

Originally Posted by MacroGuru

Looking at the dime you could run almost a 4-2-5 type defense and probably focus on stopping the pass.

If understand your question right, you're inquiring about running a 100% dime. I would think that would make stopping the run completely impossible, though I've never tested it. My hope, with getting the right talent in the "4-4" is to create a defense stacked against the pass that can still be an effective all-around D.

Originally Posted by MacroGuru

Another question. Are you seeing fatigue as an issue with your players that are in the Nickel? Are subs happening?

Reason I ask back before the latest update, when I ran a pure nickel defense I noticed I never subbed and my starters were wearing out faster than usual.

I have definitely seen fatigue hit in previous experiments with this defense. Consequently, that nickel safety requires astronomical endurance. But I also set my playing time for D-linemen, LBs and secondary to 80, 85, 90, 95 %, based on individual players' endurance levels. The AI does seem to respect that and allow subs at those positions, even when they're playing in nickel all game long. But I'm not sure if the actual nickel safety ever gets subbed. After all, he has no "backup" player established in any gameplanning screen. But the other players who do have backups set in the base 4-3 screen do seem to get subbed.

[revrew]

Week 11: Philadelphia (6-4) at Chicago (2-8)

We jump out to a quick 10-0 lead, but 6 missed FGs (3 for each team) mean a bunch of points were left on the field. ANd while our running game was stellar, the passing game reverted to awful

On defense, stars were the "Dex connects," MLB Dexter Lucas leads us in tackles again, and CB Dexter Craig grabs an INT. Lucas looks well on his way to an All-Pro season. Alas, his pass defense was very suspect today, and the team as a whole gave up too many big plays, especially in the 4th quarter, where the Eagles put up 13 unanswered.

With 4 seconds left on the clock, Philly kicks the winning field goal. Chicago loses, 16-13.


Week 12: Chicago (2-9) at Detroit (6-5)

With starting speedster RB Kelly Hayes out with a hammy, RB Joel Snyder (our starter at season's beginning) rips off a 4th quarter, 72-yard touchdown sprint, giving us a late lead. His second TD of the day, giving us a chance.

On defense, CB Barry Westbrook joins the "Dex connects" as ALL 3 grab INTs. CB Dexter Craig's INT with 1:23 left on the clock seals the deal, and Chicago WINS, 20-16.

3/4 SEASON REPORT:

Rushing Offense: #30
Passing Offense: #25
Scoring Offense:#28

Rushing Defense: #31
Passing Defense: #9
Scoring Defense: #14

Turnovers margin: #24, despite our secondary

At 3-9, we're in a 5-way tie for the #2 overall draft pick. St. Louis sits at #1, with a record of 2-10.

[sterlingice]

Suck harder!

Wait- that came out wrong

SI

[Vaevictis_386]

Great read, thank you. I'm eager to see how this defensive idea works out.

[revrew]

Week 13: New England (3-9) at Chicago (3-9)

Despite losing a pair of fumbles, this was just a good ol' fashioned butt-kicking, as the Bears were on their A game, such as I didn't even know we had. RB Joel Snyder ran for 115 and a score, QB Preston Dean tacked on 21 of 27 for 3 scores and a 127.9 rating.

On defense, CB Dexter Craig led the way with a pass defense and an INT, as we held them to 224 yards total offense.

Didn't know we had it in us (or that New England was THAT bad). Bears win, 34-10.

I was going to update each week on the race for the #1 draft pick, but I think this takes us out of it for good.

The even worse news, however, is tha twe lose star DE Ben Erickson and starting FS Charles Talley to injuries. Owie.

Week 14: Chicago (4-9) at Minnesota (6-7)

Our offense comes crashing down to earth. After last week's prodigious output, QB Preston Dean is benched, but the rookie comes in and does even worse. The only positive note is WR Amos Mahoney, a bottom-feeder who had a pair of TD catches last week and caught 10 of 20 this week. 10 passes? 20 targets? Weird.

Defense gave up 3 TDs of 50 or more yards, so we're not too happy with the boys this week. MLB Dexter Lucas was in on 17 tackles and had a sack, but the rest of the crew was woeful.

Chicago loses, 24-3.

[revrew]

Week 15: New York Jets (11-3) at Chicago (4-10)

On offense our passing game is weak again, as Preston Dean completes only 20 of 53 passes. Nothing pretty here.

On defense, however, the Gandalf flexes major muscles, holding the Jets to 95 yards in the air. CB Dexter Craig defends 3 passes to lead the way.

Still, we give up WAY too much on the ground, and with no offense, we lose to the heavily favored Jets in a remarkably close one, 14-12.

Week 16: Chicago (4-11) at Green Bay (6-9)

The offense in this one just can't find a gear, but once again WR Amos Mahoney leads the way with 8 out of 10 catches for 77 yards. Odd, he's playing better than advertised. Still, woeful all around.

On defense, however, the boys found their groove one more time. CB Dexter Craig finds another INT, and this time, it IS enough. Chicago just won't let them score and WINS a tight one, 16-13.

[revrew]

FINAL SUMMARY on 5-11 season

Cincinnati plays Seattle in the SuperBowl, and Seattle wins it all.

Rushing Offense: #27
Passing Offense: #24
Scoring Offense: #27

Rushing Defense: #31
Passing Defense: #3 - (Yay, Gandalf!)
Scoring Defense: #14

Turnover margin: #26

Frankly, I'm surprised the pass defense was as strong as it was. It's not as though we were getting blown out regularly and opponents could just grind it out on the ground. Many of our losses were by slim margins. We have almost no talent at safety, and our CBs are B+ talent at best, though as you'll see below, they had unbelievably good years. Furthermore, we had absolutely NO pass rush. This unexpected success is another piece of evidence pointing to the effectiveness of the Gandalf defensive gameplan.

But until we shore up the run, we haven't really tested anything. When we can force teams into more 3rd and longs, THEN we'll see how good the pass defense is. The 4-4 Gandalf is, of course, designed to stop the pass. But unless we can slow down the run, too, it can't be considered a viable defense, but just a gimmick.

PLAYER SUMMARIES:

QB Preston Dean: Completed 53% of his passes for 2663 yards, 8 TDs, 17 INTs, 58.1 rating, which ranked him 29th in the league.

RB Joel Snyder: 3.88 average, 528 yards, 4 TDs
RB Kelly Hayes: 4.93 average, 404 yards, 1 TD

WR Amos Mahoney was our best WR, despite being rated 15/24. 50 catches, 574 yards, 5 TDs. Led in every catching stat except drops and catch %.

MLB Dexter Lucas 123 tackles, 40 assists, 3 sacks, 1 INT, 17.0 Tackle%
SLB Jake Brock 85 tackles, 39 assists, 2.5 sacks, 1 INT, 10 passed defensed, 14.5 Tackle %

LDE Ben Erickson 36 tackles, 5 sacks, led the team in PassRush%

CB Barry Westbrook 7 INTs, 12 pass defensed, 87.8 PDPct
CB Dexter Craig 6 INTs, 9 passes defensed, 97.2 PDPct over 9 games

Nickleback Mike Wynn also had 9 passed defensed, so he's worth keeping on the roster.

CB Barry Westbrook earns All-League 2nd team honors.
MLB Dexter Lucas gets robbed of any post-season honors. Should have been 1st team, IMO.

LOOKING AHEAD:

Our offense is going to get a total overhaul, starting with a real offensive line and a QB who isn't going to throw so many picks. Our running backs, however, are decent enough.

On defense, we have to be able to stop the run better. Utilizing the 44 Gandalf, run defense is an expected weakness, but this was abysmal.

Looking ahead, I was planning on trading CB Barry Westbrook, as he's older, but I'm having second thoughts. Perhaps he can keep playing for 3-4 years. Keeping him will also enable us the focus elsewhere.

Our top Priorities:

1. Improve run defense - look at big DT and SS pickups
2. Improve our safeties in general
3. Upgrade at Oline
4. Upgrade at QB
5. Look for major upgrades at K/P. We lost several games this year because of multiple missed FGs.
6. Get a real RDE opposite LDE Ben Erickson

It's not as though any of those are optional, though. I'll be looking to accomplish all 6 goals.

We finish in 4-way tie for Draft pick #5, but we're on top with the 1.5 selection.

[Coffee Warlord]

You still will prolly have your pick of top defensive players even at 1.5.

[revrew]

YEAR 2 OFFSEASON:

1. We hire all new staff. All 4 positions. Upgrades everywhere.
2. Aw, heck. We're down $61 million in lost cap room, meaning we don't have nearly the cap to do everything we need.
3. After renegs we have $20 million, but only 18 players signed. This is going to be tough.
4. QBs are at the top of the draft board, so we should have our pick of D-linemen, and there's a pair of DEs worth it. May go there. Also an OLB that looks tempting and a solid DT. Horrid year for safeties, however, so we'll be looking at upgrades in FA.

FA Targets:

Some very solid kickers/punters in FA and nothing on the draft board, so we quickly make offers to:

P Fred Preston, 8yr, 75/75
K Rusty Shafluetzel, 8 yr, 80/80

They both want 5-year deals, so we go for it, despite the cap hit

At DT, there's nothing worth a big investment, but we could get some cheap depth with

NT Roosevelt Taylor, 5yr, 38/48

There's no way we can afford to keep SLB Jake Brock, and I've never been sure he's really worth it anyway, so we pass on him, but find an even better fit in:

SLB Nate Hodges, 5yr, 48/65, Run D rating of 68/93. All-around solid player.

Yikes. Can we afford this guy?

At Safety, there's no superstar, but there are some possibilities. It's just a matter of how much we can afford. We place offers on these 2 for starters:

SS Kelly Macklin, 7yr, 49/49, affinity match with a 75 run defense rating
SS Glen Lofton, 5yr, 56/60, decent bars everywhere and an 88-rated kick returner

At QB, there's slim pickings, and despite my preference to go with a young guy, Minnesota's starter from last year is available, and he had a fairly decent year. He'd be a big upgrade, so we make offer to:

QB Hardy Holleran, 8yr, 33/35

Other offensive players of note:

WR Tyrone Lee, 6yr, 34/39, with a huge position leadership rating and big bars in both RR and BPR, this would be a great pickup for us. We try to sign him to 3yr contract.
C Deon Parrish, 8yr, 39/39, can run block
LG Emmitt Burroughs, 6yr, 39/39, very solid pass block
LT Kyle Farr, 6yr, 31/31, gave up 0 sacks in 8 starts last season

[revrew]

SS Kelly Macklin is the first to sign. He's rated 83 in run defense, 58 in zone and 87 in punishing hitter. While he isn't the superstar needed for our nickel spot (plus he's 5-7, 195), he is a very good fit for our starting SS position. Plus, he's an affinity match.

LT Kyle Farr also signs, hopefully giving us some decent pass protection.

Also, CB Mike Wynn, 47/47, returns to the fold. Our #3 CB, he's a fan favorite and has bars in the right places.

And while I really like SS Glen Lofton, his bars aren't in the right places and will cost too much against the cap. Have to show some restraint here, so with the signing of Macklin, we withdraw our offer to Lofton.

[revrew]

P Fred Preston joins the team. My scout likes him at 77/77, and he had a great season last year for the Eagles. He's ours now.

Both DT Taylor Roosevelt and SLB Nate Hodges sign elsewhere, however, a major disappointment, at least in Hodges' case.

We add SLB Stanley Grier, 5yr, 28/50, to the target list, but he's a sad consolation prize

[revrew]

WR Tyrone Lee signs. Yay! He gives us both RR and BPR, as well as becoming our new position leader. I like this kid, at least as much as you can like a 34/39 WR.

K Rusty Schafleutzel also signs, and our scout thinks he's 85/85. We land both major, major upgrades to the kicking game. We now have one of the best K/P crews in the league.

SLB Stanley Grier also signs, but he's only temporary stopgap measure at his position.

[revrew]

In come the O-linemen!

C Deon Parrish signs, a decent run blocker with exceptional affinity.

LG Emmitt Burroughts signs, an outstanding pass blocker.

The only major FA target left is that QB. C'mon, Hardy. Time to sign.

[revrew]

And QB Hardy Holleran signs!

Last season, he started 10 games for the Vikes, completed 64.3 percent of his passes, 11 TDs, 8 INTs, and an 84.0 QBR. Not the ideal candidate (too many INTs), he's still an upgrade.

And that's it for (meaningful) free agency. Tomorrow, we move on to the DRAFT!

[sterlingice]

Are you getting too good too fast? One really good draft and then, what, 6-10 next year?

SI

[revrew]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Are you getting too good too fast? One really good draft and then, what, 6-10 next year?

SI

Frankly, I have no idea. But with our massive cap penalty for cutting all those players, we didn't really have room to improve that much this offseason.

In FA, our big pickups were a kicker and punter. The other guys are marginal improvements. We lost a solid SLB.

So we're still 2 defensive linemen, an SLB and 2 safeties short of having the team we're trying to build. Offense is still spotty too. And as other teams build offensive cohesion, I expect we'll start to see more formidable offenses. Looking at the stats, opposing QBs were pathetic league wide. That's going to change going forward.

The bigger test to your question is the following year, when we have craploads of money to spend on FA. Then, in our 3rd season, how good will we be? That will either make this a short dynasty, or we'll discover the challenge is tougher and we may be in for a prolonged dogfight.

[revrew]

DRAFT DAY!!!!

At 1.5, there are 2 DEs and a DT we'd consider taking. We definitely need more run stuffing in the middle, and our pass rush is anemic. We just need a couple of QBs to be picked ahead of us, and we'll be set to fill one of our biggest needs.

1.1 New England surprises by taking the DE I really had my eyes on. Well, there's a reason I liked him.
1.2 St. Louis takes a QB as expected. He's gonna be a good 'un, but we can't draft his like, per the rules.
1.3 Dallas trades up to get another QB, and now we know we can get what we're after!
1.4 Cleveland takes an OT, so now we have a decision to make.

RDE Doug Conley is 3 blues and a red, the red being in the all-important dash category. At 6-6, 291, and a pass rush technique bar maxed out, he's more than worth the 1.5.

RDT Sean Spencer (let the "Psych" jokes commence) has 2 reds (dash and Solecismic) and 2 blues. Great-lookng combines. His bar for pass rush strength is oddly low (lower than his bench would suggest), and his run defense isn't the monster 100 we'd want in a 1.5 pick. Right position, right talent, but is he as good as Conley?

What's your thoughts, readers?

[Coffee Warlord]

Conley, depending on the depth at each position in the draft. Could prolly find a decent DT in the 2nd (if you don't go for say, a stud LB or S)

[revrew]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Conley, depending on the depth at each position in the draft. Could prolly find a decent DT in the 2nd (if you don't go for say, a stud LB or S)

Studs on defense are in short supply in this draft; good thing I have the 1.5.

But I'm inclined to agree with you. Conley seems a higher value (could his pass rush really top out at 100?), and with a pass rush in place, we can start forcing teams into longer downs and distance, so they stop running so much.