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Old 04-08-2020, 09:21 AM   #1
QuikSand
lolzcat
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
FOF 8 Drafting - Master Class

Okay, cards on the table. I am a pretty accomplished FOF player, through every version dating back years and years. But among the facets of playing FOF 8 (and the last couple versions, if I'm being honest), the biggest weakness in my FOF game is the rookie draft.

I'll abbreviate a lot of stuff with this: some people clearly have really advanced this process. At various points, it felt like the draft had been "solved" by certain people. Some of those angles have been shared, some not. So there's definitely a division of haves and have-nots. I am a sensible person, very intuitive, but am selectively very lazy. And I have found myself, for lack of a really strong "system" to use when drafting, on the wrong side of the drafting skills rift.

I'm going to run a thread here to try, in the open air, improve my skills in FOF drafting. I have one strategy in mind. But I will start with the big and obvious caveat to the thread title... I am absolutely NOT the master here.

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Old 04-08-2020, 09:25 AM   #2
QuikSand
lolzcat
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
What got me thinking here is one of my leagues, amidst its rookie draft right now. The IHOF is a storied league, one of the first to pop up in an organized way when FOF sprouted multi-player capability, and still going strong. Ben E Lou is the commissioner, his web skills and tools add a great deal of value to the league, and he selflessly puts time and effort into his FOF network. I know his doing so has yielded side benefits for him, but I enthusiastically support his network by using his Amazon link aggressively and sending the occasional direct donation, without any remorse at all.
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Old 04-08-2020, 09:50 AM   #3
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
I'm a Charter Owner at IHOF, and my team, the Chesapeake Chitterlings, has had some success over the years and the various iterations of FOF.

I am especially proud of our overall W/L record, which for years has hovered remarkably close to 2/3. Fossilized FOFC veterans will appreciate the humor here. But more seriously, I am immersed with this team, care a good deal, and do my best to keep the team competitive.
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Old 04-08-2020, 09:54 AM   #4
QuikSand
lolzcat
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
So, why IHOF?

Well... a couple recent posts at the forum there got me thinking:

MAA-HAN - IHOF Forums

MAA-HAN - IHOF Forums

So... Hanalei is accumulating draft picks. Not my team, who cares?

Oh, whose team is it? MalcPow. {dramatic music}

Ok, so I get it. I will again compress a lot here, and just say that he's a guy who has contributed an awful lot to the corpus of advanced drafting here, and who (I believe) still knows how to draft better than anyone. So, if he has for whatever reason decided to wander back into active status for a hot minute, and to wade in to draft a bunch of guys... then it seems to me I get to benefit from this by paying some actual attention to what he's doing.

So, that's the master class here. I'm going to watch over his shoulder, observe the picks he makes in this IHOF draft, and do my best to second-guess what the thinking is behind each one. And, in the process, I want to better educate myself on what I could be doing differently... you know, without actually working hard on it or anything. A man has to have a code, after all.
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Old 04-08-2020, 09:57 AM   #5
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
I will hasten to add here that I am doing this without explicit permission from MalcPow. He is unlikely to find this thread unless pointed here, so fuck him.

Oh, another note. We get along. Like, in person. But to be honest, I figure for the price of one buffet dinner in Vegas, I now for all intents and purposes (along these lines at least) own his mortal soul and undying affection. He's also less of an asshole that you would surely expect. So that's good, too.

Cheers, buddy.
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Old 04-08-2020, 10:34 AM   #6
Chas in Cinti
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Cincinnati, OH
Wow... that's a ton of picks
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Old 04-08-2020, 01:18 PM   #7
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Yeah, and knowing him well, he will crush the draft and manage to grab eight starters here, including with 5th round picks and the like. I envy it, and want to use this platform to learn from it.

Have a busy day, but will likely be able to post starting tonight. Fortunately, the BELCo leagues feature a thread that shows the scouting consensus for players taken, and all their combine data, etc. Should make sharing the selections here pretty workable, I'd think.
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Old 04-11-2020, 03:05 AM   #8
QuikSand
lolzcat
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Okay, insomnia is a cruel mistress. But alas, I now have time to type some of this shit up. Draft also just wrapped up, so I will soon have the early eyes on these players...


So, here we go.


Quote:
Originally Posted by IHOF News Network View Post


Hanalei: MalcPow takes G Christopher Johnston with the 1.4 pick.

Run Blocking71<->100
Pass Blocking71<->100
Blocking Strength71<->100
Endurance71<->100

HT
WT
RAW
ADJ
DASH
SOL
BENCH
AGI
BRJU
POS
%DEV
74
289
7.4
7.0
4.90
39
34
7.48
104
-
41


So, nothing to see here, basically. Guy seems like an obvious immortal. I guess the biggest question might be whether even a 120/100 guard is worth a top-5 pick in any draft. That does seem like a fair question, right?
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Old 04-11-2020, 03:09 AM   #9
QuikSand
lolzcat
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
By the way, here's the roadmap for the Hanalei draft:


Pick Team Team GM Change Team Name Pos School
1 - 4 (4) Hanalei * MalcPow Christopher Johnston G Louisiana - Lafayette
2 - 3 (35) Hanalei * MalcPow Gene Riley ILB Memphis
2 - 8 (40) Hanalei * MalcPow Jason Small ILB Maryland
3 - 4 (68) Hanalei * MalcPow Nicholas Prescott WR Central Florida
3 - 7 (71) Hanalei * MalcPow Bryson Burns C Virginia Tech
4 - 3 (99) Hanalei * MalcPow Eduardo Crane RB Purdue
4 - 9 (105) Hanalei * MalcPow Kirk Fox RB Syracuse
4 - 12 (108) Hanalei * MalcPow Wally Binkow S Florida State
4 - 16 (112) Hanalei * MalcPow Ron Dunlap FB Wisconsin
4 - 18 (114) Hanalei * MalcPow Tito Carr TE Ohio State
5 - 4 (132) Hanalei * MalcPow Silas Parrish S McNeese State
5 - 8 (136) Hanalei * MalcPow Bert Woodson ILB Iowa State
5 - 9 (137) Hanalei * MalcPow Darius Rayburn RB Minnesota - Duluth
6 - 3 (163) Hanalei * MalcPow Willie Chubb T UCLA
7 - 4 (196) Hanalei * MalcPow Jamal Davison CB Louisiana State
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Old 04-11-2020, 03:10 AM   #10
QuikSand
lolzcat
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
...incidentally, NOT A MASTER CLASS PICK HERE:


Quote:
Originally Posted by IHOF News Network View Post


Chesapeake: QuikSand takes G Fred Burnett with the 1.24 pick.

Run Blocking69<->98
Pass Blocking70<->100
Blocking Strength61<->91
Endurance71<->100

HT
WT
RAW
ADJ
DASH
SOL
BENCH
AGI
BRJU
POS
%DEV
71
313
6.2
5.9
5.14
26
29
7.74
95
-
49
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Old 04-11-2020, 03:19 AM   #11
QuikSand
lolzcat
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Quote:
Originally Posted by IHOF News Network View Post


Hanalei: MalcPow takes ILB Gene Riley with the 2.3 pick.

Run Defense37<->68
Pass Rush Technique70<->100
Pass Rush Strength70<->100
Man-to-Man Defense40<->70
Zone Defense2<->32
Bump-and-Run Defense54<->84
Play Diagnosis7<->38
Punishing Hitter65<->95
Endurance39<->69
Special Teams51<->81

HT
WT
RAW
ADJ
DASH
SOL
BENCH
AGI
BRJU
POS
%DEV
76
257
5.4
5.2
4.64
21
29
7.32
114
27
44



Okay, again maybe you question the position choice (I don't) but past that there's not much to bicker with here, right? Combine beast, bar profile makes him look like he'll be a really serious pass rusher (WLB or DE). Note that the static bars are strong here - PR Str MAX, Bump and PHitt both solid.


Quote:
Originally Posted by IHOF News Network View Post


Hanalei: MalcPow takes ILB Jason Small with the 2.8 pick.

Run Defense70<->100
Pass Rush Technique19<->49
Pass Rush Strength70<->100
Man-to-Man Defense39<->69
Zone Defense48<->78
Bump-and-Run Defense22<->53
Play Diagnosis30<->60
Punishing Hitter70<->100
Endurance63<->94
Special Teams37<->68

HT
WT
RAW
ADJ
DASH
SOL
BENCH
AGI
BRJU
POS
%DEV
74
250
5.5
5.3
4.86
25
28
7.44
110
32
40


...and now a more conventional LB. Again, combines all look solid, bars look solid, statics are max-meh-max. So, really nothing much to see here, solid pick but doesn't seem to reveal anything other than a conventional sort. (Admittedly, as a dumb drafter, I'm the guy who looks back at second round linebackers and sometimes notices "hey, my guy's bars look good but that pass rush strength isn't so hot... well, hope he works out anyway...")

Last edited by QuikSand : 04-11-2020 at 03:19 AM.
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Old 04-11-2020, 03:21 AM   #12
QuikSand
lolzcat
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Quote:
Originally Posted by MIJB19 View Post
I hope y'all like the outcome: MalcPow got 8 additional draft picks.
Get your notebooks ready to keep track on what he's doing back in action.


heh... didn't see this before I decided to post this thread, honest...
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Old 04-11-2020, 03:31 AM   #13
QuikSand
lolzcat
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Quote:
Originally Posted by IHOF News Network View Post


Hanalei: MalcPow takes WR Nicholas Prescott with the 3.4 pick.

Avoid Drops71<->100
Getting Downfield58<->87
Route Running5<->34
Third Down Catching16<->45
Big-Play Receiving47<->76
Courage17<->46
Adjust to Ball32<->61
Punt Returning71<->100
Kick Returning46<->75
Endurance40<->69
Special Teams16<->45

HT
WT
RAW
ADJ
DASH
SOL
BENCH
AGI
BRJU
POS
%DEV
69
192
4.8
5.0
4.41
22
11
6.87
126
55
19

Quote:
Originally Posted by tzach View Post
ok hehe


So... I include the jape comment here because I think I understand it. There's been a pretty long-held view that in FOF, whether we like it or not, the "Route Running" bar/rating has always served as a sort of proxy for "low key this is really the guy's overall ability to play the receiver position entirely, so don't fall in love with guys who have ancillary ratings but low RR, they never work out to be as good as you hope." It would be nice to have a shorter nickname for that, by the way... sort of the way FOFC uses Rex and Otto, or (in other circumstances) Dola. I'll stew on that.


Anyway... what I think I see here is a guy who might well develop into that player. Maybe he's Jacoby Jones (from a few years back, has some productive seasons with the Ravens) - seemed to have all the tools, but ended up being a return man miscast when actually called upon to run a route tree. His GD/BPR split is upside down for the Ted Ginn comparison, but that's kinda there too. Probably not useless, but maybe he'll one day be a frustrating guy gathering 60 targets for 36 catches and 400 yards, despite being in the personnel screen fairly liberally as a WR2/WR3 swingman. But, if he posts a couple punt return TDs doing that, then... worth a 3rd still?
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Old 04-11-2020, 03:35 AM   #14
QuikSand
lolzcat
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Quote:
Originally Posted by IHOF News Network View Post


Hanalei: MalcPow takes C Bryson Burns with the 3.7 pick.

Run Blocking71<->100
Pass Blocking59<->88
Blocking Strength71<->100
Endurance29<->58

HT
WT
RAW
ADJ
DASH
SOL
BENCH
AGI
BRJU
POS
%DEV
77
298
5.7
4.9
5.04
14
38
7.74
92
-
6


Okay, here's something of a curveball. I had this guy in my queue too (chem fit for me - but my OL is already super deep in this league, and I just spent my 1st at OG above).


So... the first three bars look great. Combines suggest it's really there, right? Nothing fishy there that I see, one way or the other.


So... 6% developed is a thing, usually. And the fairly low endurance... not a void, but, is that enough to worry about?


Basically, no quarrel here with him going in the 3rd... if he were 26% developed, he's a top-40 pick I think.

Last edited by QuikSand : 04-11-2020 at 03:36 AM.
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Old 04-11-2020, 03:41 AM   #15
QuikSand
lolzcat
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Quote:
Originally Posted by IHOF News Network View Post


Hanalei: MalcPow takes RB Eduardo Crane with the 4.3 pick.

Breakaway Speed8<->38
Power Inside70<->100
Third Down Running17<->47
Hole Recognition51<->81
Elusiveness5<->34
Speed to Outside62<->92
Blitz Pickup38<->67
Avoid Drops35<->64
Getting Downfield21<->50
Route Running40<->70
Third Down Catching21<->51
Punt Returning0<->30
Kick Returning0<->30
Endurance26<->56
Special Teams44<->74

HT
WT
RAW
ADJ
DASH
SOL
BENCH
AGI
BRJU
POS
%DEV
72
233
5.6
5.9
4.48
29
22
7.35
122
35
54


Okay, now it's getting more interesting to me. I nearly picked this guy in the 3rd, brainfarted instead. But why does MP like him?


I don't claim to understand RBs. Those who do seem to really value te ratings in HoleRec, Endurance, and Breakaway. This guy is okay, but no standout there. I don't think MP is really a "this bar" guy, so what does he like overall here?


4 good combines, overall ratings profile looks fine... to me this seems like an unremarkable pick. My team is short at RB, this guy was my top-rated RB left, but I didn't see much difference between him and the next few, and that led me to make my other choice. How badly did I mess up, did I miss out on a serious contributor here?


Candidates for things I missed...MAX Power Inside, near max Speed to Outside? Are those bars tells for him being good under the surface?
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Old 04-11-2020, 03:49 AM   #16
QuikSand
lolzcat
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Quote:
Originally Posted by IHOF News Network View Post


Hanalei: MalcPow takes RB Kirk Fox with the 4.9 pick.

Breakaway Speed23<->52
Power Inside4<->34
Third Down Running7<->37
Hole Recognition70<->100
Elusiveness70<->100
Speed to Outside2<->32
Blitz Pickup49<->78
Avoid Drops0<->30
Getting Downfield34<->64
Route Running61<->91
Third Down Catching0<->30
Punt Returning0<->30
Kick Returning0<->30
Endurance69<->99
Special Teams51<->81

HT
WT
RAW
ADJ
DASH
SOL
BENCH
AGI
BRJU
POS
%DEV
71
218
4.4
4.7
4.74
24
9
7.35
116
19
41


Right back at RB, and this seems like a weird split. MAX bar at HoleRec and very nearly at Endurance. Guessing that alone makes him worth a splash in round 4. Is there more to tell here than that? Combines seem meh, but I'm guessing everything there is at or above some magic "constraint" figures that would otherwise indicate the player was generated from a lower tier recipe in-game (the stuff that MP has shared more liberally with the FOFC community than anyone else).


Quick check... since I'm bothering to write a thread. At RB, the list of constraints I have handy says:


BJump 114 CHECK
Dash 4.65 XXXX

Agility 7.35 ON THE LINE

PosDrill 17 CHECK


So, the guy's breakaway speed bar is bad, and the combine there (dash) actually misses some breakpoint that at one tine was important. Still, is this just a downhill runner type who won't blow anyone away with speed but could still churn out 5ypc the hard way? Is he A.J. Dillon?

Last edited by QuikSand : 04-11-2020 at 05:58 PM.
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Old 04-11-2020, 03:52 AM   #17
QuikSand
lolzcat
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Quote:
Originally Posted by IHOF News Network View Post


Hanalei: MalcPow takes S Wally Binkow with the 4.12 pick.

Run Defense2<->32
Man-to-Man Defense24<->54
Zone Defense42<->71
Bump-and-Run Defense29<->59
Play Diagnosis29<->58
Punishing Hitter55<->85
Interceptions38<->68
Punt Returning0<->30
Kick Returning0<->30
Endurance28<->58
Special Teams21<->51

HT
WT
RAW
ADJ
DASH
SOL
BENCH
AGI
BRJU
POS
%DEV
69
199
4.2
3.9
4.52
34
19
7.30
95
49
30


Okay, my first mystery pick. This guy looks, to me, much like the stiffs I'm used to drafting when I'm out of good options, take a dude like this mainly for chemistry, and watch him dissolve from 22/48 to 23/39 in the first preseason.


So, why is he worth taking here if you're a complete ace drafter?


4 blue combines and a decent PH rating? Is that all there is to it?

Last edited by QuikSand : 04-11-2020 at 03:52 AM.
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Old 04-11-2020, 03:58 AM   #18
QuikSand
lolzcat
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Quote:
Originally Posted by IHOF News Network View Post


Hanalei: MalcPow takes FB Ron Dunlap with the 4.16 pick.

Run Blocking23<->53
Pass Blocking24<->54
Blocking Strength28<->58
Power Inside48<->78
Third Down Running38<->68
Hole Recognition27<->57
Blitz Pickup23<->53
Avoid Drops60<->90
Route Running25<->55
Third Down Catching14<->44
Endurance49<->79
Special Teams20<->50

HT
WT
RAW
ADJ
DASH
SOL
BENCH
AGI
BRJU
POS
%DEV
72
247
4.5
3.6
4.78
24
21
7.43
105
23
48


Okay, why this guy?


I see:
-not a single bad combine
-not a single zero bar/range in ratings


Is that it? Was he just the best FB available, and that was a need?


Okay...we'll put a pin here. If, as happens often, this seeming rando from MP's draft shows up on a list of "diaper dandies" or whatever BELCo calls them, and the he suddenly pops +12 in preseason and looms as a starting-caliber TE in waiting (or somesuch)... I will come back and look closely. I must be missing something, this guy looks really pedestrian to me.
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Old 04-11-2020, 04:01 AM   #19
QuikSand
lolzcat
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Quote:
Originally Posted by IHOF News Network View Post


Hanalei: MalcPow takes TE Tito Carr with the 4.18 pick.

Run Blocking16<->46
Pass Blocking52<->82
Blocking Strength0<->30
Avoid Drops70<->100
Getting Downfield63<->93
Route Running30<->60
Third Down Catching69<->99
Big-Play Receiving34<->64
Courage42<->72
Adjust to Ball36<->66
Endurance16<->45
Special Teams67<->97

HT
WT
RAW
ADJ
DASH
SOL
BENCH
AGI
BRJU
POS
%DEV
75
241
5.1
4.4
4.66
31
16
7.29
115
44
47


Ok, back to all good combines. Decent bar profile, but this guy's no standout in the statics: void in PRStr and medium in BPR.


Is a potential 50 in BPR enough of a tell to make a middling TE worth a mid round pick here? That's the best I've got on my glance.
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Old 04-11-2020, 04:05 AM   #20
QuikSand
lolzcat
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Quote:
Originally Posted by IHOF News Network View Post


Hanalei: MalcPow takes S Silas Parrish with the 5.4 pick.

Run Defense67<->97
Man-to-Man Defense0<->30
Zone Defense18<->47
Bump-and-Run Defense55<->85
Play Diagnosis69<->99
Punishing Hitter70<->100
Interceptions1<->31
Punt Returning0<->30
Kick Returning0<->30
Endurance60<->89
Special Teams16<->46

HT
WT
RAW
ADJ
DASH
SOL
BENCH
AGI
BRJU
POS
%DEV
67
191
5.2
4.9
4.61
29
19
7.13
99
30
45


Okay, this seems more conventional. The pairing of MAX PunHit and strong bump seems to make this guy a good bet to make the active roster and maybe develop into a starter.


My guess? If this guy doesn't have voids, and instead has 20-50 ranges, in a couple spots he maybe is a top 75 pick?
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Old 04-11-2020, 04:07 AM   #21
QuikSand
lolzcat
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Quote:
Originally Posted by IHOF News Network View Post


Hanalei: MalcPow takes ILB Bert Woodson with the 5.8 pick.

Run Defense51<->81
Pass Rush Technique30<->60
Pass Rush Strength45<->74
Man-to-Man Defense0<->30
Zone Defense31<->61
Bump-and-Run Defense0<->30
Play Diagnosis35<->65
Punishing Hitter60<->90
Endurance19<->49
Special Teams44<->73

HT
WT
RAW
ADJ
DASH
SOL
BENCH
AGI
BRJU
POS
%DEV
71
230
4.5
4.4
4.71
21
23
7.60
94
34
49


Hmmm. No bad combines, bar profile with PunHit as the best-looking bar. What is this guy? What am I missing?
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Old 04-11-2020, 04:10 AM   #22
QuikSand
lolzcat
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Quote:
Originally Posted by IHOF News Network View Post


Hanalei: MalcPow takes RB Darius Rayburn with the 5.9 pick.

Breakaway Speed16<->45
Power Inside67<->96
Third Down Running12<->42
Hole Recognition49<->79
Elusiveness55<->85
Speed to Outside70<->100
Blitz Pickup32<->62
Avoid Drops25<->55
Getting Downfield54<->84
Route Running21<->51
Third Down Catching34<->64
Punt Returning4<->34
Kick Returning0<->30
Endurance14<->44
Special Teams23<->53

HT
WT
RAW
ADJ
DASH
SOL
BENCH
AGI
BRJU
POS
%DEV
71
217
4.3
4.6
4.60
18
18
7.14
117
17
24


Third RB in the class for Hanalei. I don't see much. Again, no green ink on the combines there, and his HoleRec rating looks okay.

Again, that combo of Power Inside and Speed to Outside... stuff that has a real world appeal taken at face value, but never really impressed upon me as being important... both good with this dude, like the other RB I didn't much like. Hmmmm.

edit: also worth noting, I guess, that no void bars other than in returns...

Last edited by QuikSand : 04-11-2020 at 04:11 AM.
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Old 04-11-2020, 04:15 AM   #23
QuikSand
lolzcat
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Quote:
Originally Posted by IHOF News Network View Post


Hanalei: MalcPow takes T Willie Chubb with the 6.3 pick.

Run Blocking3<->33
Pass Blocking70<->100
Blocking Strength62<->92
Endurance22<->52

HT
WT
RAW
ADJ
DASH
SOL
BENCH
AGI
BRJU
POS
%DEV
75
306
4.1
4.5
5.45
25
35
7.42
90
-
5


Hmmmm. Okay, Run Bl rating is not exactly a void, but just near-zero. Does that matter?


Anyway, I'd look at the bars and think this guy might click as a low-level OT3 who can only pass block.


Missing something? If this guy pops, what did I miss? He looks like a stiff to me... potential void in key area, super low development, nothing super special any place. Dunno.
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Old 04-11-2020, 04:18 AM   #24
QuikSand
lolzcat
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Quote:
Originally Posted by IHOF News Network View Post


Hanalei: MalcPow takes CB Jamal Davison with the 7.4 pick.

Run Defense22<->51
Man-to-Man Defense32<->62
Zone Defense10<->40
Bump-and-Run Defense66<->95
Play Diagnosis27<->56
Punishing Hitter4<->33
Interceptions6<->35
Punt Returning0<->29
Kick Returning53<->82
Endurance21<->50
Special Teams1<->30

HT
WT
RAW
ADJ
DASH
SOL
BENCH
AGI
BRJU
POS
%DEV
73
207
4.9
5.0
4.46
35
20
6.88
116
33
30


Another guy who looks scrapheap-ready, to me. Solid bars in KR and Bump, maybe that's literally enough right there. Combines do look good. Is is the smoothie of all these little factors that make him semi-attractive? Again, if he pops big, I'm coming back and tearing this apart.
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Old 04-11-2020, 04:19 AM   #25
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Okay, that's the raw material. Going to try to get some sleep, but can reveal my "first looks" on these guys soon.
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Old 04-11-2020, 04:21 AM   #26
tzach
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i'll be watching this thread closely -- i'm sure it will revamp my interest in drafting again

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Old 04-11-2020, 07:46 AM   #27
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heh... didn't see this before I decided to post this thread, honest...
And on my end it was no intention to specifically trigger anybody, but I think this is indeed interesting to see somebody pick it up.
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Old 04-11-2020, 10:53 AM   #28
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While it doesn't exactly belong here, I'll outline my trail of thought as I take my sneak peek at my own rookies from this same draft. It will, if form holds, stand in stark contrast to what I see from the MalcPow draft.

1 - 24 (24) Chesapeake * (10 min) QuikSand (online) Fred Burnett G Texas Southern

No longer looks maxed out, but still very solid. Scout says 48/75, he seems like a sure thing to be a top-shelf starter for a decade. But how much less effective is that than a guy with multiple 100 ratings? Who knows. Anyway, this looks fine, if he ends up 70/90/70/80 over time, he's our LG starter forever. For a "settle for" pick of the best guy at low impact position, he's on target.

2 - 24 (56) Chesapeake * (10 min) QuikSand (online) Eduardo Yap CB Rutgers

I thought this dude's bar profile was suspicious. But now he looks like an odd bird... big 88 in the static PH bar, but little else to suggest anything much more beyond man coverage (not my focus). Scout says 29/53, I say... mysteries abound, but this might turn out to be a wasted pick. The guy picked right after him would have been a better fit, I now think.

4 - 24 (120) Chesapeake * (10 min) QuikSand (online) Avery Shepard RB Samford

I desperately needed RB help, passed on a tier in rounds 2 and 3 because of guys like him (and our 7th rounder). So, what did we get here? Pretty much what I expected. Scout says 40/47 and bars are mostly filled out. He's VERY top-heavy with his ratings (nothing projecting over 50 below the top six, all of which look at least solid). In a football world, he seems like he'd be a useful change-of-pace back who didn't have the legs for 15+ carries. In FOF, no idea what a 30-something endurance RB can project to being worth, these guys seem to show up on the first play already winded.

5 - 24 (152) Chesapeake * (10 min) QuikSand (online) Andre Donaldson DT Pace

So, I draft differently than MP in lots of ways. But one of them is I am very willing to go for players who project to have very narrow value - as in one or two bars being worthwhile, and the rest is relative trash. If this guy turns out to be a special teams ace and a bottom-of-rotation DL, I reckon I could find him enough starts to lock him in for chemistry and hold him forever as a cheap roster filler. No aspiration here that he might be a sneaky creep-up-to-50 type whatsoever. I don't think the draft aces look for guys like this, meaning they are basically my moneyball play out there.

Anyway...this particular guy? The ST bar checks in not at 100, but at 66/79. That alone is likely enough to make him a pre-camp cut. Standard low-round chaff, that's most of most drafts of mine. There WAS a logic to taking him, I don't see how I could have foreseen he'd be the most attractive guy to me in round-something with enough clarity that I'd spend an interview on him. So, instead, I pick semi-blind, and watch that 70-100 ST range disintegrate into relative uselessness. It happens. To me, a lot.

6 - 24 (184) Chesapeake * (10 min) QuikSand (online) Darrell Van Pelt K Princeton

Specialist. Basically trying to get some value for these late round picks beyond dead cap hits after I usually cut them. (For a chemistry nut like me, the value of picks in rounds 5-7 took a massive hit in the latest FOF full update... finding "starts" for marginal defensive players is hard, so getting such guys activated for chemistry is a bitch... meaning with my late picks, I'm often left square pegging a fleet of semi-useless skill players)

How do you pick a kicker? Beats me. Scout says this guy is 14/30, and sneak peek backs it up. Worthless, easy cut. Maybe this was all so I could get my long-awaited revenge on Princeton, the only university that ever declines my application at any level. I'll show them. (Honestly, I can't imagine I drafted a guy with bars like this, it looks like semi-random Volatility Stick of Death, not necessarily a poor drafting approach). "I don't take any responsibility at all."

7 - 24 (216) Chesapeake * (10 min) QuikSand (online) Leonardo Tousha RB Duke

Okay, cue the skill position flotsam, as mentioned above. RB is a need position, so I fluff my last pick at one more lottery ticket - the guy who looked big at endurance. What do we end up with?

Scout says 33/38, that's not awful. Sneak peek shows him with an intriguing combo of bars that sorta stuck out when we looked at MalcPow's draft earlier -- this guy has almost nothing except: 64 Power, 63 Speed, 67 Endurance. Can a RB with Breakway 8 and Hole Rec 26 actually evolve into a useful player? Let's try to find out, we'll keep him aboard at least into preseason, I hope.

- - -

Chemistry-wise, among this group no real standouts. RB Tousha is 79 Ldr/70 Pers, that 70 Pers will keep him in the mix against a couple young hobos I could sign who would at least bring some chemistry bonus. G Burnett is a solid follower at 0/69. RB Shepard is okay at 69/51. DB Yap suffers another strike with a weak 20/41.

Given my style of play, the skull and crossbones shows up when a promising player has a combo like 95/5... I simply can't afford to keep that sort of guy around long enough for him to take over as chemistry leader, and emasculate all my work there. No such booby traps here, at least. DT Donaldson is a 93/40, but he pre-earned his obvious pink slip by also sucking at football, so no harm done there.

Long term assets: G
Unknown: RB, CB

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Old 04-11-2020, 10:57 AM   #29
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Yeah, here's your TL;DR version...

Quote:
Originally Posted by QuikSand View Post
Long term assets: G
Unknown: RB, CB

We'll do something similar after looking through the Hanalei draft. It will be depressing. But I'm doing the thread not to brag (obviously), but to learn. So, we'll try to humbly do that.
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Old 04-11-2020, 05:13 PM   #30
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BELCo ratings make Hanalei the preliminary draft winner, no shock given his extra picks...we'll see how things look when he runs the "Dandies/Duds" list, I honestly don't recall when that shows up, maybe after training camp?
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Old 04-11-2020, 05:15 PM   #31
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...yes, after the training camp phase. We'll await, eagerly.
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Old 04-11-2020, 05:28 PM   #32
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I will do a little sneak peek stroll through the Hanalie rookie class, just to get my own first impressions from the bars-so-far snapshot...

Okay, without time to do a real rundown here, suffice it to say that his players have a far higher ratio of current-to-future ratings than most of my after-draft-regret guys do.

Looking at a guy like FB Dunlap, he does, indeed look like a useful player. Very nicely developed, no really apparent upside, but the initial scout view is 33/46 by my scout, not too bad. If he generates a nice +6 or so in preseason, I reckon that's a decent starter. I don't see the tell in that guy... why is he showing up so well developed? His 48% Dev% is not exceptional. Is there a clue in his player position familiarity, or something else not being imported by the draft conscriptor?

This guy seems like a learning opportunity.
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Old 04-11-2020, 06:09 PM   #33
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edit: leaving this here for my embarrassment, but please just skip past the substance of this post - I got two draftees mixed up, and thought I had found something crazy... not so, just my mistake here

Quote:
Originally Posted by IHOF News Network View Post


Hanalei: MalcPow takes S Silas Parrish with the 5.4 pick.

Run Defense67<->97
Man-to-Man Defense0<->30
Zone Defense18<->47
Bump-and-Run Defense55<->85
Play Diagnosis69<->99
Punishing Hitter70<->100
Interceptions1<->31
Punt Returning0<->30
Kick Returning0<->30
Endurance60<->89
Special Teams16<->46

HT
WT
RAW
ADJ
DASH
SOL
BENCH
AGI
BRJU
POS
%DEV
67
191
5.2
4.9
4.61
29
19
7.13
99
30
45

So...my quick look above, I concluded "I don't get it." I see a big PH bar, good combines. He looks like a one-coverage loser with no nose for the ball, and lousy special teams. Useless.


As of now, from my sneak peek, I'd say "this guy looks like a productive player." He's got nice, well-developed skills including a pairing of 70 PH/65 Int, and he's in the 40s of both Endurance and Special Teams. His coverage bars aren't great, but not awful.


What the hell happened to this guy? In the draft he was one point from being a void in interceptions. Now, my my scout, he's the #6 DB in the whole draft at getting interceptions, with a current rating of 65. WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON? HE IS A TOTALLY DIFFERENT GUY.


This is why I set up this thread.

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Old 04-11-2020, 08:14 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by QuikSand View Post
So...my quick look above, I concluded "I don't get it." I see a big PH bar, good combines. He looks like a one-coverage loser with no nose for the ball, and lousy special teams. Useless.


As of now, from my sneak peek, I'd say "this guy looks like a productive player." He's got nice, well-developed skills including a pairing of 70 PH/65 Int, and he's in the 40s of both Endurance and Special Teams. His coverage bars aren't great, but not awful.


What the hell happened to this guy? In the draft he was one point from being a void in interceptions. Now, my my scout, he's the #6 DB in the whole draft at getting interceptions, with a current rating of 65. WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON? HE IS A TOTALLY DIFFERENT GUY.


This is why I set up this thread.
Fwiw, I'm still seeing Parrish as a void in interceptions.
The 4th round pick Binkow does rank 6th. Did you mix those two up?
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Old 04-11-2020, 09:15 PM   #35
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Fwiw, I'm still seeing Parrish as a void in interceptions.
The 4th round pick Binkow does rank 6th. Did you mix those two up?

Ah, apparently I did. MYSTERY SOLVED. END OF THREAD.

(thanks)
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Old 04-12-2020, 01:50 PM   #36
tzach
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how about this malcpow's draft class
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Old 04-12-2020, 07:53 PM   #37
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I guess I just wait until training camp runs. Then we get BenBot analysis, which is reliably a good indicator of guys about to pop.

I would welcome smarties here sharing insight into what they see (especially where I don't see it)... but right now that big batch looks like a lot of decent players, better than the ones I tend to draft, but not... magical, or anything. My guess is we'll see some sprinking of fairy dust in the stages ahead, and hopefully come away with 3-4 guys where I can try to take a deeper dive, as a sort of a posteriori discussion.
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Old 04-13-2020, 12:20 PM   #38
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1(4) LG Christopher Johnston 57/95
3(7) C Bryson Burns 33/79
2(8) MLB Jason Small 41/63
2(3) MLB Gene Riley 41/59
4(9) RB Kirk Fox 44/54
3(4) FL Nicholas Prescott 30/50
4(3) RB Eduardo Crane 39/50
5(8) MLB Bert Woodson 32/47
5(4) SS Silas Parrish 36/47
6(3) LT Willie Chubb 21/56
5(9) RB Darius Rayburn 34/43
4(12) FS Wally Binkow 27/39
4(18) TE Tito Carr 31/42
4(16) FB Ron Dunlap 38/48
0(0) LDT Levi Logan 22/42
7(4) RCB Jamal Davison 26/45

These should be working links to the Hanalei draft, ranked #1 by BenBot... so you can see actual players pages post-camp. The preseason ratings movements not yet here, but we have some decent ideas who is working out.

First look... this draft looks less spectacular than some I recall seeing from MalcPow.
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Old 04-13-2020, 12:21 PM   #39
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ugh, sorry about the text formatting there... I don't know how to fix without losing an hour of my life. Sorry not sorry.
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Old 04-13-2020, 12:22 PM   #40
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The Dandies/Duds list doesn't suggest there are going to be the usual "OMGWTFBBQ" picks from Hanalei... he may have just executed a solid, decent, but unremarkable deep draft class.

IHOF Forums - View Single Post - 2089 Training Camp Complete

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Old 04-13-2020, 12:25 PM   #41
tzach
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only the man himself can reveal his secrets


i think the DBs will pop to mid 50s at least (davidson and blinkow)
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Old 04-14-2020, 11:41 AM   #42
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I wasn't sure when to hop in. But I think you've got it right. We can walk through some guys once they're "fully revealed". I came out of this one thinking we got four 70+ guys... the monster G at the top, the two 2nd round LBs (with Riley moving to DE and Small an anchor MLB), and the C we got in the 3rd. The rest of the class felt like a solid mix of guys in the 50s or close enough at spots where they'd be helpful.

There's some reality in here too. The clock held for awhile ahead of my run of picks in the 4th round and I fell asleep without really optimizing my list. We got guys I had in there as interesting. No harm no foul, but there's not much separation or ordering in the back half of the draft really.

And we made an active blunder apparently in valuing the WR as much as we did. He's an affinity fit kind of (I swear that was in the value soup), and I saw a great returner and slot receiver guy. Now it looks like the route running will be prohibitively low and we got a return guy. Not the worst thing in the world for a 3rd round pick, but there were some real players on the board in the 3rd in this draft.

Anyway, all told I feel good about any of our first three picks as first rounders for us in any draft. We'll have pulled some starters and good players from a lot of other spots as well. I end up with a lot of non-sexy positional picks and guys whose carrying tool is just the plain ol raw Grade ranking. That and ... really work well together in targeting some upside plays and limiting some downside misses. We still make a lot of logical errors in our constant pull toward winning the draft mini-game of ratings moves and missing out on actual impactful roster strategy.
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Old 04-14-2020, 03:33 PM   #43
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QuikSand was kind enough to send me his draft files, so I will offer some armchair-GM thoughts on this draft as well. One possibility: if others from IHOF are willing to send me their draft_personal.csv files from this class, I would be able to share a somewhat unique look at how scouting variances may have affected the way people saw this draft. Please PM me if willing.
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Old 04-14-2020, 03:53 PM   #44
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Evidently no surprise at #4. My spreadsheet saw the guard as the fourth best overall in the class, one of four players who were at least three full standard deviations above the mean. An overall score of 75 with his bars (81) somewhat rosier than his grade (68) or combine (66).

A few other observations from the first round: DE Bryant Porter (1.20) seems (according to this spreadsheet) to be the second-best prospect in the draft, with an overall (82) and unreal combines (93). Along with the guard and the QB (1.1) and WR (1.2), was one of the aforementioned four players who graded out more than 3 standard deviations above the mean. Seems like a steal to have fallen all the way to 24. Was he a red flag? DE Abraham Hoffman (1.33) (overall 76, stdev 2.8) and CB Eduardo McElreath (1.26 Tucker) (overall 70, stdev 2.7) are two more who seem to have slipped more than 15 spots on the draft board.
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Old 04-14-2020, 04:02 PM   #45
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The two linebackers both have similar profiles and are notable for their maxed static bars. Both also have bars that are substantially better than their grades or their combines. (LB Riley: bars 60, grade 46, combine 46) (LB Small: bars 65, grade 47, combine 35). Given the maxed statics, seems like the bet here was that the bars would hold. Riley will probably come out a little higher than that if moved to defensive end.
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Old 04-14-2020, 04:09 PM   #46
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So one thing my spreadsheet did was try to predict who would boom (beyond their predicted peak overall) or bust (never reach their predicted peak overall), by taking correlations from a large data set between draft characteristics and eventual ratings changes. I was never able to tweak this enough to be reliable because of the noise created by VSOL and VSOD. But LB Small had a noteworthy score by this metric, however unreliable it may have been. Only DT Carter Jamison (2.26) and G Christopher Johnson (ahem) had substantially higher scores. The two defensive ends (Hoffman and Porter) were high on this list too.

The QB picked by the AI at 1.8 fared worst by that metric.

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Old 04-14-2020, 04:18 PM   #47
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C Bryson Burns is interesting. The spreadsheet does *not* see him as a 79 overall. I wonder whether this is an instance of a scouting delta... (kids going sideways on me, will return to this later...)
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Old 04-14-2020, 05:51 PM   #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by QuikSand View Post

I'll abbreviate a lot of stuff with this: some people clearly have really advanced this process. At various points, it felt like the draft had been "solved" by certain people. Some of those angles have been shared, some not. So there's definitely a division of haves and have-nots. I am a sensible person, very intuitive, but am selectively very lazy. And I have found myself, for lack of a really strong "system" to use when drafting, on the wrong side of the drafting skills rift.

I'll hand it to the guys who have done it. The guys have really accomplished a lot to get to that level and they kill it in MP. It was fun for a while, but I never could compete for real despite my single big championship. I was good, but never great. Eventually, I just got tired of it. I always wanted to find that silver bullet, so I'll be watching just to see how it goes.
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Old 04-14-2020, 06:48 PM   #49
corbes
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Looking further at C Burns, I don't think it is a scouting issue. It looks like when I calculated my correlations between the available draft information and PEAKCUR for offensive linemen, the blocking strength bar was by far and away the most important characteristic, while the third most important characteristic was percent developed.* Burns took a substantial hit in the calculation for that reason. If he'd been 50% developed, my spreadsheet would have calculated his bars at about 80, which is where seems to have come out in the initial BELCO reveal.

So: I'm on the wrong side of MP and BELCO on this one. That tells me something about the quality of my math.




*Bench press was the second most important attribute

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Old 04-15-2020, 01:00 AM   #50
tzach
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Quote:
Originally Posted by corbes View Post
QuikSand was kind enough to send me his draft files, so I will offer some armchair-GM thoughts on this draft as well. One possibility: if others from IHOF are willing to send me their draft_personal.csv files from this class, I would be able to share a somewhat unique look at how scouting variances may have affected the way people saw this draft. Please PM me if willing.


nice to see you around -- i sent you my draft_personal file on the belco slack channel
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