Werewolf CXXV - Vegas, Baby - VILLAGERS WIN - Page 2

Danny · 02-09-2011, 09:41 PM

Wait, this isn't the salem game? I'm going to back out actually.

Autumn · 02-09-2011, 09:41 PM

Small change to the rules. You can vote Danny now, if you'd like.

Autumn · 02-09-2011, 09:43 PM

I actually forgot to include in the PMs your starting money. But that's fine, because I'd like to be transparent and clear that all players start with the same amount of money. You each currently have $1,000. Tomorrow at noon you will be shown the services you can bid on for Day 1.

Danny · 02-09-2011, 09:43 PM

As an initial prognosis, I have to believe each mafia has the same number of wolves, probably three each. Since to win they would need to equal the villagers, that would be 13-3-3. No way it's 9-4-4, though 15-2-2 is possible, it seems that would be too big a hill for a family to climb.

Danny · 02-09-2011, 09:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

Small change to the rules. You can vote Danny now, if you'd like.

This may be allowable in the rules, but it is not a recommended strategy.

Lathum · 02-09-2011, 09:47 PM

Ok, I am going to throw this put there.

I am a vanilla villager. I am offering myself up for a day one vote. The risk is that we don't kill a wolf. The reward is that we don't kill a rolled villager.

The choice is yours.

Danny · 02-09-2011, 09:52 PM

lol, there are no roled villagers

The Jackal · 02-09-2011, 09:55 PM

Whether or not I believe Lathum is one thing, but since there are supposedly a fair amount of vanilla villagers, and likely 6 mafia (I tend to agree with what Danny posted up there), our chances of hitting a wolf on day one are slightly higher than normal. So I probably won't be taking Lathum up on that choice, unless I decide this was an interesting wolf ploy.

I'm vanilla also, but I have bracelets to win and women to purchase, so I'd like to stick around a little bit.

The Jackal · 02-09-2011, 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

lol, there are no roled villagers

Good point, I had to re-read the rules since I was confusing some things with the Salem game, but it does say there may be some hidden roles. Though who knows if those would be very beneficial to the village or not.

Guess the village bids on services too, though the mafia families probably will be winning a lot of them since they can coordinate voting? Actually that's a good question. Do they get to pool their money to bid on things or does each person have to bid separately like the rest of us? (goes to check the rules after posting)

PackerFanatic · 02-09-2011, 09:57 PM

I was thinking 3 - 3 as well

The Jackal · 02-09-2011, 09:58 PM

I see that the mafia are able to pool their bids, so don't worry about answering my question.

PackerFanatic · 02-09-2011, 09:59 PM

They can pool their money if they so choose. So us villagers will just have to be really good at not letting people swing the vote (since the families will likely try to do that to win more of the lynch bets and in turn win more money)

Lathum · 02-09-2011, 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

lol, there are no roled villagers

I admittedly haven't read the rules, but my offer still stands.

mauchow · 02-09-2011, 10:11 PM

It seems like I'm always a villager in this game .. no reason for that to stop now I guess. Lets take down the Mafia we villagers.

Autumn · 02-09-2011, 10:15 PM

My first rules clarification (probably of many).

When you bet on a lynch you don't need to bet any certain amount. The bet is essentially risk free, you either make something if you're right or make nothing.

Zinto · 02-09-2011, 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

My first rules clarification (probably of many).

When you bet on a lynch you don't need to bet any certain amount. The bet is essentially risk free, you either make something if you're right or make nothing.

Awesome I was wondering if someone bet all their money on day one and lost what would happen.

Danny · 02-09-2011, 10:24 PM

Maybe we take Lathum up on his offer and all of us bet him? That way the village as a whole has more money to spend then a mafia group.

Zinto · 02-09-2011, 10:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

Maybe we take Lathum up on his offer and all of us bet him? That way the village as a whole has more money to spend then a mafia group.

The only thing I do not like about that is the mafia is able to pool money they can bet a little more than the amount any villager has to get any role they want. Then I again it is pretty much a wash because with everyone at a 1000 dollars they can do that anyways.

Lathum · 02-09-2011, 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

Maybe we take Lathum up on his offer and all of us bet him? That way the village as a whole has more money to spend then a mafia group.

still haven't read the rules but if that helps the village bring it on.

The Jackal · 02-09-2011, 10:32 PM

I'll have to think this over, though I would caution that this may not work today as not everyone will check in by the time our bets are due. Maybe for day 2, especially if we know after the first lynch what the reward is for a correct guess?

Darth Vilus · 02-10-2011, 01:02 AM

The Darth checking in, let's roll guys.

Danny · 02-10-2011, 02:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zinto

The only thing I do not like about that is the mafia is able to pool money they can bet a little more than the amount any villager has to get any role they want. Then I again it is pretty much a wash because with everyone at a 1000 dollars they can do that anyways.

This is true, but lets say we are 13-3-3 right now. So as of now the village has 13 to play with and each mafia group has 3 (just using these numbers to represent the thousands). If everyone bet, then it would be 26-6-6. Same ratio, but greater overall value for the village. Would it be worth it? I'm not sure at this point.

JAG · 02-10-2011, 03:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

As an initial prognosis, I have to believe each mafia has the same number of wolves, probably three each. Since to win they would need to equal the villagers, that would be 13-3-3. No way it's 9-4-4, though 15-2-2 is possible, it seems that would be too big a hill for a family to climb.

I was thinking 13-3-3 before the game started also, though the rules mention other possibilities:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

ROLES

For the most part the game will consist of vanilla villagers and vanilla mafia, with bidding replacing the typical roles. There may be some hidden roles or hidden victory conditions in the game, however.

I don't know if that means a possible neutral role? So for argument's sake I'll say it's something like 12-3-3-1. If we go forward with Lathum's plan:

Pro: We would make more money than the mafia would today and have more to spend on roles.
Con: We lose a day of voting since it'll be a landslide like none ever seen on day 1. I'm not sure how valuable voting record will be in this game though, since we have groups of wolves that will happily vote for other wolves. We also lose a villager when we have a lot of mafia we have to knock off before we can win.

JAG · 02-10-2011, 04:07 AM

For my con above, I should say "potentially" lose a villager since Lathum could be mafia, though I can't see how offering themselves for sacrifice would be a very good opening move for them.

JAG · 02-10-2011, 04:26 AM

Autumn, some questions:

1. Do we know what happens if we tie when we bid for services?
2. If we bid on but fail to win a service, do we lose the money we had bid?

Autumn · 02-10-2011, 06:42 AM

@JAG

1. You do not know the tie breaker, no.
2. If you do not win your bid you keep your money.

ntndeacon · 02-10-2011, 06:45 AM

I shall not be voting for an agreed upon member of the community. I do not think that the benifits outway the negatives.

hoopsguy · 02-10-2011, 07:53 AM

Having run a few non-conventional WW games, my first suggestion to people would be to remember that each day is about finding wolves. There are certainly going to be some different mechanics in play, but fundamentally we are still trying to get rid of bad guys. I hope that people keep that in mind and don't get too caught up in bidding on services and all the other elements unique to this game.

I'm not saying ignore the extras, just that it is likely a bad idea to compromise core werewolf principles along the way.

tyketime · 02-10-2011, 07:55 AM

Resident checking in...

saldana · 02-10-2011, 07:58 AM

checking in.

not sure what lathum is playing at...first of all why sign up if you are gonna volunteer to get lynched...that is totally unlike him

second of all, calling that out doesnt actually help the village, because the mafia guys can all bet you too and profit from your death the same way the village will.

Chief Rum · 02-10-2011, 08:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Having run a few non-conventional WW games, my first suggestion to people would be to remember that each day is about finding wolves. There are certainly going to be some different mechanics in play, but fundamentally we are still trying to get rid of bad guys. I hope that people keep that in mind and don't get too caught up in bidding on services and all the other elements unique to this game.

I'm not saying ignore the extras, just that it is likely a bad idea to compromise core werewolf principles along the way.

Tsk, tsk, such a spoil sport, hoops.

Checking in. I am cautiously supportive of the vote one guy plan, but it might be a good idea to play out Day One like normal and see what we have and how things work first.

JAG · 02-10-2011, 08:25 AM

@hoops: I think the money making is just an asynchronous way to that purpose, thinking that the extra money the village starts with will be enough to buy some extra services with the goal of catching more wolves.

@Saldana: The point is that all will win, but there are presumably a lot more villagers than mafia so the villagers will make the most profit.

tyketime · 02-10-2011, 08:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

As an initial prognosis, I have to believe each mafia has the same number of wolves, probably three each. Since to win they would need to equal the villagers, that would be 13-3-3. No way it's 9-4-4, though 15-2-2 is possible, it seems that would be too big a hill for a family to climb.

Do you make this assumption because the typical distribution is 75%-25% villagers to wolves?

If that is the case, then I would also agree with JAG's input that we have to allow for an "other role" which would probably make the distribution 12-3-3-1.

The Jackal · 02-10-2011, 08:36 AM

I would guess that even if there is a neutral role, it still counts as a villager in the grand scheme of things. It probably just has different win conditions, such as outlive a certain mafia member or something along those lines. I'll have to mull on it to think of what other crazy things Autumn might've injected.

The Jackal · 02-10-2011, 08:37 AM

And I tend to agree with hoops - in games like this, enjoy the hoopla and the extras, but remember that there are still wolves that need rooting out, and that should always be the main goal.

The Jackal · 02-10-2011, 08:38 AM

Would also not be surprised if someone's win conditions are related to the amount of money they can stockpile.

Passacaglia · 02-10-2011, 08:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana

checking in.

not sure what lathum is playing at...first of all why sign up if you are gonna volunteer to get lynched...that is totally unlike him

second of all, calling that out doesnt actually help the village, because the mafia guys can all bet you too and profit from your death the same way the village will.

I think the idea is that since there are more of us, we'd get more money. Still, I'm with hoops, and I'd rather not waste a vote and lose info.

DaddyTorgo · 02-10-2011, 08:41 AM

checking in

Lathum · 02-10-2011, 08:41 AM

Like I mentioned earlier, I still haven't read the rules so I have no clue about all this betting.

I signed up because I wanted to support Autumn and the WW community. I have to go to Cleveland next week and my time will be limited. I went into this knowing if I was a villager I was going to go this path, after all, someone has to go first.

Autumn · 02-10-2011, 08:53 AM

A reminder that bets need to be sent to me by 12 noon EST. Voting will begin then. A bet only needs to include your guess as to who will be lynched today.

Lathum · 02-10-2011, 08:56 AM

ok, read the rules.

I am a little confused by how things are going to go today.

So we bet by noon on who is going to be lynched. We then get a list of services that will be available to bid on. The winning bidders get to use those services tonight. Is that correct? If so does the winning bidder find out right after the lynch what service they have?

Autumn · 02-10-2011, 09:01 AM

That is all correct Lathum. The winners have until 9 am tomorrow to send in their orders for the services they won.

Lathum · 02-10-2011, 09:03 AM

what if the person who bid the most for a service if lynched?

Does the role default to the next highest bidder?

Autumn · 02-10-2011, 09:06 AM

Yes, the order of operations will be:
Lynch is processed.
Bets are processed.
Bids are processed.

So only those living are considered for the bids. And that also means you can attempt to bid more than you currently have, hoping you make money in the bet.

Passacaglia · 02-10-2011, 09:10 AM

Do we know how big the pool is that can be won by predicting who gets lynched? Also, what happens if no one wins?

Lathum · 02-10-2011, 09:11 AM

can I vote for myself to be lynched?

Autumn · 02-10-2011, 09:14 AM

@Pass No, you don't know those answers.

@Lathum Yes, you can self vote.

tyketime · 02-10-2011, 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Do we know how big the pool is that can be won by predicting who gets lynched?

I don't see anything that indicates how big the prize pool gets, or how it is even calculated...

PackerFanatic · 02-10-2011, 09:17 AM

I assume, too, that we will not find out who people bet on and who profited from the lynch?

JAG · 02-10-2011, 09:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

I assume, too, that we will not find out who people bet on and who profited from the lynch?

I was wondering about that too.

In the end, I think I'm opposed to betting Lathum. I don't see the benefit of such a play for the wolves, and that means I have roughly a pool of 17 players to vote for, of which more than one third are wolves. Also, I didn't factor in losing Lathum's purchasing power (his starting 1K) to total sum of what would be gained by the village.

02-10-2011, 01:02 AM	#71
Darth Vilus College Benchwarmer Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: SoCal	The Darth checking in, let's roll guys. __________________ "Two there should be; no more, no less. One to embody power, the other to crave it." ―Darth Bane "Tell me what you regard as your greatest strength, so I will know how best to undermine you; tell me of your greatest fear, so I will know which I must force you to face; tell me what you cherish most, so I will know what to take from you; and tell me what you crave, so that I might deny you…" ―Darth Plagueis the Wise

02-10-2011, 08:41 AM	#88
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	checking in __________________ If I've ever helped you and you'd like to buy me a coffee, or just to say thanks, I have my Bitcoin and Ethereum addressed listed below :) BTC: bc1qykhsfyn9vw4ntqfgr0svj4n9tjdgufryh2pxn5 ETH: 0x2AcdC5cd88EA537063553F5b240073bE067BaCa9

02-09-2011, 09:41 PM	#52
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Small change to the rules. You can vote Danny now, if you'd like.

02-09-2011, 09:43 PM	#53
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	I actually forgot to include in the PMs your starting money. But that's fine, because I'd like to be transparent and clear that all players start with the same amount of money. You each currently have $1,000. Tomorrow at noon you will be shown the services you can bid on for Day 1.

02-09-2011, 09:43 PM	#54
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	As an initial prognosis, I have to believe each mafia has the same number of wolves, probably three each. Since to win they would need to equal the villagers, that would be 13-3-3. No way it's 9-4-4, though 15-2-2 is possible, it seems that would be too big a hill for a family to climb.

02-09-2011, 09:47 PM	#56
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	Ok, I am going to throw this put there. I am a vanilla villager. I am offering myself up for a day one vote. The risk is that we don't kill a wolf. The reward is that we don't kill a rolled villager. The choice is yours.

02-09-2011, 09:52 PM	#57
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	lol, there are no roled villagers

02-09-2011, 09:55 PM	#58
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Whether or not I believe Lathum is one thing, but since there are supposedly a fair amount of vanilla villagers, and likely 6 mafia (I tend to agree with what Danny posted up there), our chances of hitting a wolf on day one are slightly higher than normal. So I probably won't be taking Lathum up on that choice, unless I decide this was an interesting wolf ploy. I'm vanilla also, but I have bracelets to win and women to purchase, so I'd like to stick around a little bit.

02-09-2011, 09:57 PM	#60
PackerFanatic Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Appleton, WI	I was thinking 3 - 3 as well

02-09-2011, 09:58 PM	#61
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	I see that the mafia are able to pool their bids, so don't worry about answering my question.

02-09-2011, 09:59 PM	#62
PackerFanatic Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Appleton, WI	They can pool their money if they so choose. So us villagers will just have to be really good at not letting people swing the vote (since the families will likely try to do that to win more of the lynch bets and in turn win more money)

02-09-2011, 10:11 PM	#64
mauchow Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Murfreesboro, TN	It seems like I'm always a villager in this game .. no reason for that to stop now I guess. Lets take down the Mafia we villagers.

02-09-2011, 10:15 PM	#65
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	My first rules clarification (probably of many). When you bet on a lynch you don't need to bet any certain amount. The bet is essentially risk free, you either make something if you're right or make nothing.

02-09-2011, 10:24 PM	#67
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Maybe we take Lathum up on his offer and all of us bet him? That way the village as a whole has more money to spend then a mafia group.

02-09-2011, 10:32 PM	#70
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	I'll have to think this over, though I would caution that this may not work today as not everyone will check in by the time our bets are due. Maybe for day 2, especially if we know after the first lynch what the reward is for a correct guess?

02-10-2011, 04:07 AM	#74
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	For my con above, I should say "potentially" lose a villager since Lathum could be mafia, though I can't see how offering themselves for sacrifice would be a very good opening move for them.

02-10-2011, 04:26 AM	#75
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	Autumn, some questions: 1. Do we know what happens if we tie when we bid for services? 2. If we bid on but fail to win a service, do we lose the money we had bid?

02-10-2011, 06:42 AM	#76
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	@JAG 1. You do not know the tie breaker, no. 2. If you do not win your bid you keep your money.

02-10-2011, 06:45 AM	#77
ntndeacon Pro Starter Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Alabama	I shall not be voting for an agreed upon member of the community. I do not think that the benifits outway the negatives.

02-10-2011, 07:53 AM	#78
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Having run a few non-conventional WW games, my first suggestion to people would be to remember that each day is about finding wolves. There are certainly going to be some different mechanics in play, but fundamentally we are still trying to get rid of bad guys. I hope that people keep that in mind and don't get too caught up in bidding on services and all the other elements unique to this game. I'm not saying ignore the extras, just that it is likely a bad idea to compromise core werewolf principles along the way.

02-10-2011, 07:55 AM	#79
tyketime College Benchwarmer Join Date: Nov 2003	Resident checking in...

02-10-2011, 07:58 AM	#80
saldana Pro Starter Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Bethlehem, Pa	checking in. not sure what lathum is playing at...first of all why sign up if you are gonna volunteer to get lynched...that is totally unlike him second of all, calling that out doesnt actually help the village, because the mafia guys can all bet you too and profit from your death the same way the village will.

02-10-2011, 08:25 AM	#82
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	@hoops: I think the money making is just an asynchronous way to that purpose, thinking that the extra money the village starts with will be enough to buy some extra services with the goal of catching more wolves. @Saldana: The point is that all will win, but there are presumably a lot more villagers than mafia so the villagers will make the most profit.

02-10-2011, 08:36 AM	#84
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	I would guess that even if there is a neutral role, it still counts as a villager in the grand scheme of things. It probably just has different win conditions, such as outlive a certain mafia member or something along those lines. I'll have to mull on it to think of what other crazy things Autumn might've injected.

02-10-2011, 08:37 AM	#85
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	And I tend to agree with hoops - in games like this, enjoy the hoopla and the extras, but remember that there are still wolves that need rooting out, and that should always be the main goal.

02-10-2011, 08:38 AM	#86
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Would also not be surprised if someone's win conditions are related to the amount of money they can stockpile.

02-10-2011, 08:53 AM	#90
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	A reminder that bets need to be sent to me by 12 noon EST. Voting will begin then. A bet only needs to include your guess as to who will be lynched today.

02-10-2011, 08:56 AM	#91
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	ok, read the rules. I am a little confused by how things are going to go today. So we bet by noon on who is going to be lynched. We then get a list of services that will be available to bid on. The winning bidders get to use those services tonight. Is that correct? If so does the winning bidder find out right after the lynch what service they have?

02-10-2011, 09:01 AM	#92
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	That is all correct Lathum. The winners have until 9 am tomorrow to send in their orders for the services they won.

02-10-2011, 09:03 AM	#93
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	what if the person who bid the most for a service if lynched? Does the role default to the next highest bidder?

02-10-2011, 09:06 AM	#94
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Yes, the order of operations will be: Lynch is processed. Bets are processed. Bids are processed. So only those living are considered for the bids. And that also means you can attempt to bid more than you currently have, hoping you make money in the bet.

02-10-2011, 09:10 AM	#95
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	Do we know how big the pool is that can be won by predicting who gets lynched? Also, what happens if no one wins?