2015 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown

[murrayyyyy]

I'm seeing dort+ap versus field with dort-ap being even money right now. Thinking about taking a small bit on it.field is -130

If either drops below 2... forgot to add that

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I'd agree that a late wave on chalk seems likely, I'd agree AP gets bet down to 2, not sure on DORTMUND, he might hold at 4.

Would be interesting if they ran 1-2...loser ships right to Belmont perhaps, but only to run if there's a Preakness upset?

I actually put a cheap exacta on those two just for kicks.

[weegeebored]

Likely going with this part wheel: 2,8,15 / 2,3,6,8,10,15,18 / 2,3,4,6,8,10,15,18 -- $108 for the buck tri

Leaving off Upstart at my own peril, but can't put every horse in. Still might leave AP off this ticket as the Dortmund/AP/whoever payoff will be thin.

Will likely play the late Pick 4 but haven't looked at the other races yet. Good luck to everyone.

[QuikSand]

My main betting:

Keys: 15, 18, 19
Used: 4, 5, 6, 8, 10

My syndicate and I are both vulnerable to any of the bombers (other than the 4) hitting in the top two spots. Cold be a $2K wipeout, which would kinda suck.

[kingfc22]

I guess NBC ignored all the negative feedback from the Super Bowl as the figure skaters are back talking nonsense.

[Lathum]

2-3-6 tri and exacta box

3-8-18 exacta box

3 to win and place

[murrayyyyy]

One day i will remember to exacta box my tri...

[digamma]

That was a great race to watch, from the very amateur observer's gallery.

[QuikSand]

So, I'm a big believer in observing the pace of the race to best understand what's really happening. You see my previous comments in this thread along those lines - will 3 get a clear lead? Will Stevens send the 10? Etc. it matters quite a bit.

It definitely shaped this race a ton. The 3 got pinched out and had no chance (I'm shocked he landed in 6th not 16th), DORTMUND found himself on the default lead early, and Stevens clearly didn't want to run out ahead. PHAROAH sat right behind them as the pace was rather slow. As they came through the backstretch in their slow times with no serious effort, I barked "that's the triple right there," it's hard to catch leaders who haven't worked hard - doubly so when they are the real talent in the field.

Not a knock on the winner, who ran well and deserves his props. He had to beat out two others who had a great shot also, and he did it with authority. But that pace really dictated the race. No idea how different it would have played out with just one tiny change -- MATERIALITY breaks cleanly and runs about three lengths ahead of this crowd after 1 1/2 panels. Might have been really different.

[QuikSand]

As for my bets, I did okay but not great. I didn't use the 10 as widely as others, and I only hit the triple once for a bit more than $100. Not a huge score.

My syndicate more of the same. The very first bet we put together, a "foundation," was a six horse box Superfecta, which ended up hitting for $600 plus. Given that, I feel like we should have done better than we did - we ended upside down on the day. Alas.

[Jon]

I did very well today. Hit on the place and 50 cent trifecta and made a killing on the superfecta. I just wish I had bet what I was originally going to on the super.

[weegeebored]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

So, I'm a big believer in observing the pace of the race to best understand what's really happening. You see my previous comments in this thread along those lines - will 3 get a clear lead? Will Stevens send the 10? Etc. it matters quite a bit.

It definitely shaped this race a ton. The 3 got pinched out and had no chance (I'm shocked he landed in 6th not 16th), DORTMUND found himself on the default lead early, and Stevens clearly didn't want to run out ahead. PHAROAH sat right behind them as the pace was rather slow. As they came through the backstretch in their slow times with no serious effort, I barked "that's the triple right there," it's hard to catch leaders who haven't worked hard - doubly so when they are the real talent in the field.

Not a knock on the winner, who ran well and deserves his props. He had to beat out two others who had a great shot also, and he did it with authority. But that pace really dictated the race. No idea how different it would have played out with just one tiny change -- MATERIALITY breaks cleanly and runs about three lengths ahead of this crowd after 1 1/2 panels. Might have been really different.

Excellent post; could not have said it better. I don't think we'll have a TC winner in AP, but the battle to the wire was exciting to watch. Of course, it's hard to know if track maintenance had something to do with the outcome, but previous dirt races looked pretty speed favoring.

[Dutch]

I dont normally pay attention to horse racing, but one of my good friend's (who I met back in my military days) brother is the jockey for Mr. Z...we were rooting like crazy for them, but they finish 15 lengths off the pace. Still neat to have an indirect vested interest in the outcome.

[QuikSand]

I'm really surprised that DORTMUND is still being pointed toward the Preakness.

Field continues to take shape for Preakness 2015 - Baltimore Sun

If all of the top three remain in the field, I think AP might go off at 2-1 or so. Hard to say.

[QuikSand]

Preakness Field

1. American Pharaoh 4/5
2. Dortmund 7/2
3. Mr. Z 20/1
4. Danzig Moon 15/1
5. Tale of Verve 30/1
6. Bodhisattva 20/1
7. Divining Rod 20/1
8. Firing Line 7/2

[britrock88]

I'm always a little miffed that the Derby runs ~20 and the Preakness runs 40-50% of that number. Anyone know why?

[cartman]

Originally Posted by britrock88

I'm always a little miffed that the Derby runs ~20 and the Preakness runs 40-50% of that number. Anyone know why?

Usually it is because some of the longer shot horses that qualify put all their eggs in the Kentucky Derby basket. If they flame out there, there usually isn't much of an impetus to put the money into further training and prep for the Preakness.

[weegeebored]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

If all of the top three remain in the field, I think AP might go off at 2-1 or so. Hard to say.

Bettors typically go with the the "Horse A beat both Horse B and Horse C" approach so it's nearly certain that AP will be a low-priced favorite especially in a small-ish field. I'm thinking even money or less. This is a no play race for me (unless Dortmund is 7-2), and it wouldn't shock me if AP won. I would actually like to see that as that makes the Belmont more interesting, and makes AP a big "play against" in that race.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by weegeebored

Bettors typically go with the the "Horse A beat both Horse B and Horse C" approach so it's nearly certain that AP will be a low-priced favorite especially in a small-ish field. I'm thinking even money or less. This is a no play race for me (unless Dortmund is 7-2), and it wouldn't shock me if AP won. I would actually like to see that as that makes the Belmont more interesting, and makes AP a big "play against" in that race.

I am on the same line of thought here.

[QuikSand]

Early wagering is not as strong an indicator in the Preakness as the Derby, but in the early money yesterday the bettors put AP at 3-5, FIRING LINE at 5-2, and DORTMUND at 8-1.

So, there could be some value in this race after all.

[weegeebored]

8-1 would be a no-brainer play on Dortmund for me. Won't get that, but maybe the trend indicates that he might be 4-1 come post time.

[murrayyyyy]

4th race in 2 months for AP worries me here with those being all his races this year. I don't know why but I keep thinking the two outside horses end up here going 8-7 exacta box.

[murrayyyyy]

78,78,field,field super. Have to go for it aince it cost only 60

[QuikSand]

Might be more speed here than in the entire 20 horse field two weeks ago. Word/talk is that DWL is gong to send MR Z to the front just to mess up the race, he's a spitefult shit, so the theory works, even if it cooks his guy he might mess up the TC shot.

[QuikSand]

I don't expect to bet heavily, but 8 might be my leave-out guy here.

[QuikSand]

Looks like DORTMUND settling in at 9-2. I'm on the fence, but I think that's solid value.

[MacroGuru]

I am lucking out this weekend. Last night got great seats in the O's game for cheap and today, I will be going to watch the Preakness. Yeah, I will be catching the race and the one after, but I am thinking an Trifecta Box of

Dortmund
AP
Firing Line

[weegeebored]

You might not get your money back on that tri with the top three horses.

[QuikSand]

So, I might get a chance to see my 9th TC failure. Actually, no real quarrel here with AP's breeding, and the running style suits me fine. I expect we'll see healthy field - likely wheeling back FROSTED, MATERIALITY, UPSTART, CARPE DIEM do who know who else from the Derby field, plus a few fresh shooters.

To be honest, I'd really like to actually see this happen, and I like Baffert enough that I'd be okay if this is the guy.

Will, however, be looking at this as a beat-the-fave opportunity which has historically been the right play.

[MacroGuru]

Well, we ended up going and getting there in time. We still managed to hit the rain storm.

They kicked us all back inside when the storm came down due to lightning but still called the horses to post.

When they were getting ready to start they let us all back outside. Everyone stayed under the awning while I hit the fence right off the bat. I was right at the finish line of the Preakness!

It was an amazing race and my first and definitely won't be my last!

[weegeebored]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

To be honest, I'd really like to actually see this happen...

I get what you're saying, but as a long time player and fan I would hate to have to include AP in the same breath as Secretariat, Affirmed, Seattle Slew, etc. AP's running times / speed figs are pedestrian. This is simply a case where the 3yo crop is poor, and AP is the best of a mediocre bunch.

As you mentioned about DWL, there will be trainers who will do what they can to compromise AP's chances. AP is a big play against in the Belmont; I just need to figure out who wins it.

[QuikSand]

Hmm, I think you're in something of a minority calling this crop poor. But maybe with Dortmund's fade, that strengthens that argument.

Anyway - I'm basically with you, and will be looking for value in the Belmont. I haven't read anything about UPSTART, but both he and FROSTED are likely to figure in my Belmont wagering if present. I didn't really back MATERIALITY in the Derby, but he ran well after getting shut out early - a gutty race like that, with five weeks off and a forward style all point toward a good setup. I'll need to digest more about his pedigree, but I could see him kicking some mud in AP's eyes early on.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by weegeebored

I get what you're saying, but as a long time player and fan I would hate to have to include AP in the same breath as Secretariat, Affirmed, Seattle Slew, etc. AP's running times / speed figs are pedestrian. This is simply a case where the 3yo crop is poor, and AP is the best of a mediocre bunch.

But why would you push AP if it wasn't needed? He got him in front, gave him a rest and still won easily on a track that was anything but fast with the amount of rain dropped on it. Slew ran a horrible time in his Belmont on a slop track but no one mentions it because he completed the triple crown. If AP wins running away in New York then he's earned the TC.

[weegeebored]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

But why would you push AP if it wasn't needed?

I didn't say that the jock should. But you're just making my point about a mediocre crop of 3yos.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by weegeebored

I didn't say that the jock should. But you're just making my point about a mediocre crop of 3yos.

He ran a 22.4 in the slop. That pace from the start would spend a lot of good horses energy. He is faster out of the blocks and faster down the finish.

[cartman]

American Pharoah gets the 5 post, and is a 3/5 favorite at this point.

[murrayyyyy]

Is there anything to like besides 5,6,8?

[cartman]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

Is there anything to like besides 5,6,8?

Zito has twice thwarted a Triple Crown with horses that were at least 30-1. Frammento is.. 30-1.

[QuikSand]

For what it's worth, there seems to be remarkably litle buzz around this race, I presume since there's "trying to finish the TC" fatigue" or somesuch. I just got my tickets, and they were far cheaper and more plentiful than last year. And I give AP a much greater shot at winning this than I did CC last year, for whatever that is worth.

We'll see. I will likely be betting FROSTED as my key horse.

[weegeebored]

I think that AP is the most likely winner but will be pounded at the windows. This is a decent betting race if one is of the mind to toss him from the top spot. Or tossing from the place spot as well if making $$ is the object.

[QuikSand]

I think KEEN ICE is the "bomber" play, but likely won't hold 20-1. Curlin looks like he's developing as a quite legitimate distance sire, and this horse might have the best overall distance pedigree in the field if you take that leap of faith.

[murrayyyyy]

Playing favs while killing off the 8. Super 56,56,12347,12347.

The more i look at the 8 the more i think he has no shot.

[weegeebored]

Not a great betting race for me but going to take a shot against AP. TRIs and SUPERs out for me; I can't see AP not finishing at least 4th and very well may blow the field away although 12f is going to be a tough get. Going with some exactas, with one using AP in the place hole as a saver bet. If the track is sloppy then I won't play at all. FWIW, these plays are based on solid pedigree ratings.

6,7,8 / 3,5,6,7,8 -- $12 per unit

I really like Frosted in here. I might make a win bet on him as well.

[EagleFan]

Thinking Materiality for this one.

[EagleFan]

Wow, not what I expected.

[EagleFan]

Gotta love live TV... "holy shit"

[kingfc22]

Thought he might get caught after having to set the pace, but he ended up pulling away to win with ease.

[MacroGuru]

Holy Shit!

That was awesome.

When I was in Vegas a few weeks ago I put money on AP to win the crown.

[murrayyyyy]

Not often i hit a superfecta and have no desire to go get my money. $285...blah, but worth it to stop hearing how impossible a triple crown is.

[PilotMan]

Well, I hope Quick got to see that. I won't deny that it brought a tear to my eye, even though I didn't get to see it live and knew how it ended.