Snakebitten: A Real-Time MP FOF thread

[QuikSand]

Hello, again. Been a while.

Some time ago, I did a recurring write-up on my FOOL Ravens, a team in an unusual FOF league where the whole regular season is simmed in one day. I used the dynasty thread to help organize thoughts and maintain my own interest. That league has folded, but there's now the GML that has much the same setup.

So, I'm going to take another swing at this.

The goal is to write something more or less every day, get readers familiar with the team and what I'm trying to do.

Oh, and to win a title. That's still on our long term "to do" list. More on that later. Hard to call this a "dynasty thread" when we don't win anything.

[QuikSand]

The league: GML

Part of the legendary BELCO network. Praise deserved. Join.

The team: Baltimore Ravens, natch

The setup: This is a fast-moving league, not for everyone. A file every day, a full season every two weeks.

The history: My Ravens have always been good, sometimes elite, but never a champion. Not even a conference champion. I don't know if that's just bad luck, some strange mismatch with my gameplan, or something else. Regardless, it makes for a centerpiece of this whole exercise. Just win, already, guys.

The guy: We might as well mention Leo now. I failed to export, blew a season, won a coin toss, and got pick 1.1, drafted a stud QB. He put together a regular season career better than anyone I've ever had in any MP league, I reckon, and easily the best in this league's history. Laid eggs in every postseason. Uncanny. Not sure what more to say.

[QuikSand]

Lately, the story has been mostly sad. After Leo retired, we basically wandered through the QB-starved desert for a few seasons. Not terrible enough to go 3-13, but not good enough to really compete, despite having a pretty good framework of players otherwise. I put some real dogs out there, stubbornly sticking to my affinity system rather than get a somewhat-credible non-affinity passer. That's me.

We signed FA QB Rob Gunn, fairly cheaply, and he gave us a great season, leading us to a Leo-esque 13-3, #1 seed, and early playoff exit. Then, last season I managed to fail to export in the key stage, my roster got all messed up, and we slipped to 8-8.

We come into this season with a few noteworthy issues:
-Gunn is in his final contract year, and likely will want to extend (unsure whether I do)
-WR Luke Duran is a monster and the guy who we run the pass-happy offense through
-We've built up the OL but are amidst some chemistry woes there
-Defensive front is thin, but in a no-injury league that's manageable
-Seconary is notoriously bad, despite being ok in talent (likely bad gameplanning)

[QuikSand]

In addition to FA stages 2-3, it's also the first round of the draft. So, here's our pick at 1.17... not thrilling, but he looks functional to me. I passed on a big bars RB who looked like my BPA among good-fit players. I'm thin along the DL, so this guy fills a major need, should fit in for us, and looks solid to me.



We don't land anyone of note in the first two stages of free agency. This league is a little weird - we have talked about instituting a "cap crunch" but have not done so. But, we have a number of AI-run teams that make (unwise) decisions to let good free agents walk, so there are often pretty good players, including some 5th year guys. It takes big money to sign them, I have cap space but generally hold out for great fits. I put in a half-hearted offer on a non-affinity OL, but basically sat this stage out.

[QuikSand]

I realize these don't work well, but here's our roster entering the preseason. Will try to do some commentary ahead:

Front Office Football Eight
Baltimore Ravens Roster, Scout Overview
   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct 
Gunn, Rob               102 QB          13   43               43               1 yr.  
Mathews, Irving         109 QB          3    41               49               2 yrs. 
Barton, Quinn           106 QB          8    31               31               ---    
Herndon, Christopher    105 QB          3    12               35               2 yrs. 
Banks, Gabe             224 RB          2    56               56               3 yrs. 
Bryant, Drake           222 RB          6    52               52               1 yr.  
Priar, Tony             235 RB          9    40               40               1 yr.  
Nixon, Charlie          230 RB          4    37               40               ---    
James, Donnell          223 RB          3    29               38               2 yrs. 
Roberts, Joshua         229 RB          3    27               35               2 yrs. 
Van Meter, Ernest       246 RB          2    23               30               ---    
Duncan, Brett           443 TE          12   50               50               1 yr.  
Doss, Alexander         482 TE          3    49               49               2 yrs. 
Houston, Brenden        480 TE          9    32               32               ---    
Randle, Arnie           487 TE          7    32               32               ---    
Henson, Myles           448 TE          2    30               36               3 yrs. 
Duran, Luke             513 FL          6    88               88               3 yrs. 
Edwards, Jace           581 FL          10   38               38               ---    
Reilly, Erick           519 FL          7    35               35               1 yr.  
Grzegorczyk, Levi       585 FL          2    19               27               3 yrs. 
Vukmir, Clayton         584 SE          4    59               59               1 yr.  
Stallings, Johnny       517 SE          2    51               71               3 yrs. 
Crook, Ezra             511 SE          8    44               44               1 yr.  
Tatum, Dusty            510 SE          4    39               39               ---    
Adams, Rob              662 C           9    77               77               3 yrs. 
Hawkins, Andrew         657 C           7    27               27               ---    
Mason, Corwin           761 LG          6    72               72               3 yrs. 
LaPlace, Joshua         766 LG          9    27               27               1 yr.  
Flowers, Billy          764 RG          9    49               49               2 yrs. 
Fletcher, Kevin         863 LT          6    79               79               4 yrs. 
McWilliams, Daquan      868 LT          4    41               41               1 yr.  
Gaylor, Grayson         879 RT          3    35               35               2 yrs. 
Wolfe, Jumbo            904 P           4    84               84               1 yr.  
Hancock, Kody           1003K           6    52               52               2 yrs. 
Harmon, Dillon          1196LDE         9    75               75               1 yr.  
Newton, Tommy           1149LDE         10   37               37               ---    
Bernard, Alex           1195RDE         12   52               52               1 yr.  
Serban, Omar            1297LDT         2    33               41               1 yr.  
Ricks, Julian           1293NT          11   62               62               ---    
Mallard, Chandler       1298NT          9    42               42               1 yr.  
Klecko, Jeremiah        1354SILB        10   43               43               ---    
Matthews, Caden         1355SILB        8    43               43               3 yrs. 
Klinghagen, Korey       1350WILB        11   45               45               1 yr.  
Emerson, Erick          1351WILB        3    38               52               1 yr.  
DiGiacomo, Scott        1340WILB        6    35               35               1 yr.  
Jenkins, Alvin          1447WLB         8    38               38               1 yr.  
Lane, C.J.              1459WLB         2    20               21               3 yrs. 
Upshaw, Brenden         1526LCB         3    52               52               2 yrs. 
Rodgers, John           1521LCB         9    43               43               2 yrs. 
Evans, Raul             1528LCB         2    42               45               3 yrs. 
Maple, Richard          1537LCB         3    41               43               2 yrs. 
Fenimore, Raymond       1525LCB         2    29               47               3 yrs. 
McIntyre, Ron           1534RCB         5    61               61               3 yrs. 
Christakes, Zack        1639SS          3    57               57               2 yrs. 
Howe, Cesar             1638SS          10   44               44               1 yr.  
Brinkley, Sergio        1645FS          12   44               44               1 yr.  
Cooper, Braxton         1620FS          5    40               40               1 yr.  
Patten, Shaquille       1631FS          2    28               38               3 yrs. 
Kampman, Antonio        670 LS          12   21               21               ---    
   
$$ - player is suspended, ## - player is inactive,  
** = player is injured, %% - player is on IR.  
   
Players Under Contract: 47
Inactive: 0
On Active Roster: 47
   
Salary Cap: $400,200,000
Cap Room: $64,840,000
Maximum for New Player: $50,850,000
Cap Room Lost (to old contracts): $15,820,000
   
Cap Room Lost Next Year (to old contracts): $0
Cap Room Required Next Year: $204,330,000 

[QuikSand]

As I type, I am on deck for round two of the rookie draft. We have traded away the two third rounders we had this season (to get our current QB-in-waiting, more on him later I reckon), so this is our last chance to get a guy who maps out as a meaningful impact player.

The top four guys in my draft queue are defensive front guys, so we'll likely just add another log to that fire here. Overall, I'm pretty comfortable with where we are on offense, so this is a good fit. From above, you can see that our current starting DL are in seasons 9,11, and 12. That's fine for now, but we do need some promising players behind them. Thus Broomfield above, and a couple more DL in my queue now. We're similary situated at LB right now, too:

Klecko, Jeremiah        1354SILB        10   43               43               ---    
Matthews, Caden         1355SILB        8    43               43               3 yrs. 
Klinghagen, Korey       1350WILB        11   45               45               1 yr.  
Emerson, Erick          1351WILB        3    38               52               1 yr.  
DiGiacomo, Scott        1340WILB        6    35               35               1 yr.  
Jenkins, Alvin          1447WLB         8    38               38               1 yr.  
Lane, C.J.              1459WLB         2    20               21               3 yrs. 

Klecko is pissed off and won't re-sign, Klinghagen might not make it to opening day, and Lane is a sack of monkey shit. So, we really only have three credible guys -- Matthews is a solid run-stopper inside, DiGiacomo and Jenkins are mixed-bag familiar guys who help with cohesion and chemistry, but really shouldn't be in major roles on a contending team. Emerson hasn't played a down yet, but probably could play for us at WILB this season, and earn a chemistry connection too. So...a ready-to-go LB would be a nice pull in round two of this draft as well. We'll be looking for free agent possibilities too, naturally.

[QuikSand]

As expected, we end up with a LB in round two...I don't think he's a change-the-world guy but he looks like he can play. Will have to get a sense of his development to sort out where he fits best, but SLB and WILB are the two most likely slots I think.

[QuikSand]

So, for more background, here's where we were last season, statistically. I am reluctant to use this, as I failed to submit my file and had a very messed up roster for the regular season, but there are at least some takeaways, I think.

7.5 ypa passing is okay (but not great) for a pass-a-lot team, but the 19/12 ratio is totally unacceptable. Ideally, if we're going to pass the ball 600 times, I want to get at least 8 ypa, and more like 35+ TDs. (The prior season, Gunn put up 505/8.7/48/11 and was among the candidates for OPOY). We had to deal off our WR2 for cap reasons, that may have played a big role, but honestly the point of the offense is mainly to get the ball to Duran (still 9.5 ypt in an off year), and to try to keep things honest otherwise.

Defensively, it's hard to tell from these stats, but I feel we were just not good enough. The in-game summary would be better, but sadly that won't come up without loading old files, etc. So, I'll just say that my overall thinking here is: it's an old team, with some young skill players to build around. We're basically ready to go now, but need to have some quality guys behind our current old starters, that's my main focus.

Main areas I'm trying to target for future contributors: DL, LB, TE, S, C

Thus far in the rookie draft, we have ticked off the top two slots in order. That's not a retrofitted list, that's honestly where I was looking anyway.

From here, I know I'm not good enough of a drafter to be likely to land anything too serious in rounds 4 or beyond, so I will be playing some chemistry fit guys in hopes of finding some rotation-caliber types who can stick around a while based on having one skill, special teams, or whatnot. That's more or less my m.o. in this game. I do have a fair number of day-three draft picks from years gone by still on my team, but I am pretty merciless with guys who don't look like long term fits, especially on defense where it's laborious to manufacture starts for them.

[QuikSand]

In stages 3-4 of free agency, we add (and retain) some defensive beef:

Julian Ricks is long in the tooth, but a solid starter for us, and a big cohesion/chem help

Marty Collins joins up on a cut-friendly deal. He's got a profile that's perfect for us to play almost anywhere, but most likely on the outside. If the rookie doesn't look ready, this is probably our starting LB. Not a long-term solution, but this team seems good enough to be thinking short term.

Mark Rudoff rounds out the acquisitions here, and he's a big one for us. Real money in this deal. 7th year guy, so again not "the future" but I suspect he will be a future 8-sack guy for us. Career PR% under 4, we can get more out of him than that, I'm confident, as he'll rotate inside and out. Big find.

Lying in the background here is a certain reality. These guys were basically the two best fits for us of all the available free agent players, in terms of skill sets but mostly chemistry. Yes, that's how I build my teams, and part of that is overpaying when the right guy comes along. I paid Rudoff $30m oevr 4 years with a fair bit on bonus, his other offers came in at 24 and 26. Not a huge split - I have been on the hook for a good deal worse in my pursuit of "just the right guy" in many leagues. Collins is a different story, my offer there (to such an old guy) was basically only going to get accepted if nobody else was willing to put in a qualifying offer (he was asking for a lot). It worked, he's mine, if I want him. (That $13m price tag might prove costly, but I eat no bonus if we walk away)

Side note: it's a game weakness that this sort of contract is even entertained in this game, in my view

So... sorry for today's posts being sorta out of order, but my defensive front is in much better shape after today's stuff than it was yesterday. Honestly, these were the three main things I wanted to do in free agency this offseason. Still glad to have some youth via the draft, but I'd rather ease them in than force them into critical roles immediately.

[QuikSand]

Update by the numbers:

51 players signed + 6 expected rookie draftees
Legal roster already aboard, except short a long snapper
Leading bidder on 12 free agents

I have a max offer of $19m, but have to leave some space to extend contracts with DE Harmon (6-10m) and possible WR Crook (3-4m).

The big unknown here is QB Gunn. Last year of his $7m/yr deal, and by rights he should demand an extension. I dealt to get Irving Mathews as our likely starter next season, but in theory could go to him right away, especially if Gunn demands to get paid. Gunn only wants $22m, but at the moment his only real edge on Mathews is one excellent season in the books with us.

[QuikSand]

FYI, I'm seeing that LB Collins probably cannot stay on the roster. He'd take over our leadership role if we release Klinghagen, unless I can find a free agent who could resolve that problem. Looking now, but I'm betting we will have to do without.

[QuikSand]

The backfield. Roster Reference

Okay, we have a bit of a mess on our hands here, but it will settle out, easily.

Last year I had three first round picks (in the teens and twenties, natch), couldn't deal out, and ended up burning them on guys who looked good but not great. We drafted RB Gabe Banks among those spots, and got a useful-enough guy who looks like he has some solid skills, and posted 5.6ypc as the nominal RB1 last season with a wronged gameplan and roster. So, he's got a roster spot locked up.

Banks is in the 10-11 group, part of the trio that we rebuilt our chemistry around to fit with WR Duran. He's 77 Leadership, 88 Personality, so he could end up as our long term answer as the group leader. The group leader spot is actually up for grabs here, as we released the 3-4 guy who was in that slot last season - he was angry about playing time, and we would have been unable to re-sign him anyhow. We have no fullback on this team (and no real plans to add one), so this is basically a game about filling in two remaining spots.

On paper, I like the looks of Drake Bryant. He jumped on camp last year to 52/52 by my scout, and has no voids other than returning. So, he seems like the sort who would be a lovely RB2. In Atlanta, he posted nearly 5ypc in that role, then they let him walk. In BAL, in two seasons as a rotation guy, I have only gotten 3.0 and 2.6 ypc out of him - he's dead weight with us. Not a huge sample size, but... He's also in the same chem sign as Banks, which could be good or bad. Right now, he shows up as our chem leader, making Banks a non-affinity. Not wild about that. He's on the bubble as a possible cut.

Veteran Tony Priar is a 9th year guy, who also got his start with ATL and roared to a couple huge seasons as the feature back in Ben's monster offense. In limited duty here, he was great two seasons ago, then sat last year out. Overall ratings of only 40/40, but he has a nice combo of Hole Rec and third down stuff that makes me think he could still give us another season as our third down back. 120 carries for 600 yards and a smattering of catches? I'd be fine with that. He's ideally suited as a chem follower (1/78) in the 5-6 grouping.

So, the rest of these guys on the roster, signed or not, are basically auditioning for a role as RB3/affinity gimp:

Charlie Nixon, 4th yr - 37/40, 3-4 group, 66L 86P - Decent mix of skills in the 40s

Donnell James, 3rd yr - 29/38, 5-6 group, 86L 99P - 70ST, decent 3rd down skills

Joshua Roberts, 2nd yr - 27/35, 3-4 group, 82L 99P - 72 Breakaway, 50/60 HoleRec

Ernest Van Meter, 2nd yr - 23/30, 3-4 group, 82L 96P - 89 Breakaway, 66/74 Elus

Relevant note: 3rd yr QB Mathews is in the 5-6 group with 87 personality

- - - - -

I know, nothing here is electrifying. But these are important guys for my way of team building.

So, the fairly obvious thing to do here is probably:
-cut either Bryant or Priar after Pre-season 2, depending on how badly Priar fades, but neither guy figures in our plans longer term
-keep one of the 3-4 young RBs (Roberts?), get him starts this year to push him in as leader by the end of this season
-see if James can lose weight from 220 to be a credible WR, thinking that a move to become an affinity leader there could be savvy longer term
-figure the plan forward is Banks, [futureguy], and Roberts(?) in that order

Chemistry figures into this, but RB is a strange position anyhow. Partially because I just don't understand what exactly makes guys good (seems like HoleRec is most people's #1, I'm still a sucker for the breakaway speed, and I have mixed experience with elusiveness)...and on top of that I seem to always have this situation I do now, where moderately-interesting marginal guys for a role like RB3/3rdDownRB, seem to be easy to come by.

If we were cap crunched, another possible play here would be to keep two young guys this season, and have the depth chart look like: Banks / James / Roberts. The season would start out with Banks as the leader, but I think Roberts would take it after qualifying, and we'd have a strong triple affinity either way. Can't rule that out, especially with Banks having 76 endurance, and presumably being up for 18 carries a game (with the others getting maybe 6 total).

[QuikSand]

Draft update: In rounds 4 and 5, we stay on the defensive side of the ball. Round 4 is LB Fernando Stephens, a run-stopper guy with a maxed-out punishing hitter rating - that along with his affinity is enough for my flyer here. Round 5 is CB Nathaniel Hakeem, one of those guys rated pretty highly on the in-game big board, but no really attractive bars to speak of. If he merely lives up to his apparent profile, he should be a marginal rotation-caliber DB with multiple skill voids. Not very exciting, admittedly. He'll likely need to give us a plus camp to make the roster this season.

By the way, round 4 v 5 is a big drop for the chemistry-obsessed. LB Stephens gets a free year of affinity effects, even without any starts. He's nearly a lock to make the final 53. Hakeem, not so much, because he'll need to rack up starts to get past "potential affinity" status.

[QuikSand]

Round 6 - another DB, big hitter, ballhwak type but rotten zone coverage. 184 pounds. Tough to know where he would play for us. Coverage skills seem better for a corner. Special teams bar likely determines whether he has any future, it looks good, but the coming reveal will tell the story there.

[QuikSand]

And Round 7, defensive lineman. Another guy fairly far up the default "big board" but still available late, so Ben's AI routines must not like him. He's a modest-bars guy with no apparent voids. That sometimes yields a little preseason bump and some room for optimism - we'll hang out hat on there.

[QuikSand]

Free Agency, Stages 6-7

Nothing thrilling, one thing important to me.

We re-sign DE Tommy Newton, he's a 10th year former 7th round pick, and sets up as our likely D7 affinity leader this year (after a retirement voided that role). He gives us great cohesion, a 90 personality in the right sign group, and some special teams capability. I wish he were a minsal guy, but I had to pay him 2.9+0.6 each year to get him to sign -- but for me, and how I run this team, it's worth it.

Downside with him is his personality is only 60, so to clear the path for him to be our group leader for a few years, I will need to cut LB Klinghagen and Collins, meaning our LB corps will be thinned out considerably. That's our likely direction, though.

Other FA 1:6-7 signings:

$7m/yr (cut-friendly) RB Cooper Mayo who makes our decisions there even trickier
$12m/yr TE Carlton Pearson signed to be a co-starter for us (perfect fit)
minsal WR Larry Woodworth, strong affinity guy, could get 25 targets
minsal OG Abraham Dawson, would need starts to fit, just camp fodder
$5m/yr OG Luis Strong, weak affinity, basically an insurance play here
$3.5m/yr LB Lance Shapiro, solid affinity guy and zone defender, good pickup
minsal 98-rated long snapper Antonio Kampman re-signed

Pretty big stage for us, especially since I just announced we were basically done. TE Pearson and LB Shapiro will play a lot, DE Newton isn't exciting statistically but he's important to the roster structure.

[QuikSand]

Nothing of note today, really. Draft wrapped up, but we still have a FA stage before the big reveal -- most notably whether QB Gunn holds out on us.

I did a few cap-out renegotiations, but my only new signing is minsal veteran TE Brendan Houston, who is just a fallback plan for us (a possible affinity FB if I were to decide to go that way, looking unlikely now).

[QuikSand]

Oops, I take that back. We signed another LB here, run-stopper Amir Roller. Our LB corps is crowded now with mediocre guys, and he fits into that mix nicely. We will suffer in cohesion, but I'm past worrying too much about having rotten talent. We'll be okay at least. (Though I think we are skewing a bit toward run-stopping now)

[QuikSand]

I think this will be the roster we take into late free agency, prior to adding rookies. I cleared out LB Klinghagen and Collins for affinity/cap reasons, and also released RB Bryant (if I'm keeping a veteran at RB2, it will be newly signed Mayo instead).

Front Office Football Eight
Baltimore Ravens Roster, Scout Overview
   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct 
Gunn, Rob               102 QB          13   43               43               1 yr.  
Mathews, Irving         109 QB          3    41               49               2 yrs. 
Barton, Quinn           106 QB          8    31               31               ---    
Banks, Gabe             224 RB          2    56               56               3 yrs. 
Mayo, Cooper            227 RB          8    50               50               3 yrs. 
Priar, Tony             235 RB          9    40               40               1 yr.  
Nixon, Charlie          230 RB          4    37               40               2 yrs. 
James, Donnell          223 RB          3    29               38               2 yrs. 
Roberts, Joshua         229 RB          3    27               35               2 yrs. 
Van Meter, Ernest       246 RB          2    23               30               ---    
Pearson, Carlton        444 TE          6    57               57               3 yrs. 
Duncan, Brett           443 TE          12   50               50               1 yr.  
Doss, Alexander         482 TE          3    49               49               2 yrs. 
Houston, Brenden        480 TE          9    32               32               2 yrs. 
Randle, Arnie           487 TE          7    32               32               ---    
Henson, Myles           448 TE          2    30               36               3 yrs. 
Duran, Luke             513 FL          6    88               88               3 yrs. 
Edwards, Jace           581 FL          10   38               38               ---    
Woodworth, Larry        586 FL          5    37               37               2 yrs. 
Grzegorczyk, Levi       585 FL          2    19               27               3 yrs. 
Vukmir, Clayton         584 SE          4    59               59               4 yrs. 
Stallings, Johnny       517 SE          2    51               71               3 yrs. 
Crook, Ezra             511 SE          8    44               44               1 yr.  
Tatum, Dusty            510 SE          4    39               39               2 yrs. 
Adams, Rob              662 C           9    77               77               3 yrs. 
Hawkins, Andrew         657 C           7    27               27               ---    
Mason, Corwin           761 LG          6    72               72               3 yrs. 
Strong, Luis            775 LG          10   52               52               3 yrs. 
LaPlace, Joshua         766 LG          9    27               27               2 yrs. 
Connell, Malachi        772 LG          4    27               33               2 yrs. 
Flowers, Billy          764 RG          9    49               49               2 yrs. 
Dawson, Abraham         769 RG          4    36               41               2 yrs. 
Fletcher, Kevin         863 LT          6    79               79               4 yrs. 
McWilliams, Daquan      868 LT          4    41               41               1 yr.  
Gaylor, Grayson         879 RT          3    35               35               2 yrs. 
Wolfe, Jumbo            904 P           4    84               84               3 yrs. 
Hancock, Kody           1003K           6    52               52               2 yrs. 
Harmon, Dillon          1196LDE         9    75               75               1 yr.  
Newton, Tommy           1149LDE         10   37               37               3 yrs. 
Bernard, Alex           1195RDE         12   52               52               1 yr.  
Serban, Omar            1297LDT         2    33               41               1 yr.  
Rudoff, Mark            1299RDT         7    52               52               4 yrs. 
Ricks, Julian           1293NT          11   62               62               3 yrs. 
Mallard, Chandler       1298NT          9    42               42               1 yr.  
Klecko, Jeremiah        1354SILB        10   43               43               ---    
Matthews, Caden         1355SILB        8    43               43               3 yrs. 
Emerson, Erick          1351WILB        3    38               52               1 yr.  
DiGiacomo, Scott        1340WILB        6    35               35               1 yr.  
Shapiro, Lance          1352MLB         6    41               41               3 yrs. 
Roller, Amir            1490WLB         6    49               49               3 yrs. 
Jenkins, Alvin          1447WLB         8    38               38               1 yr.  
Lane, C.J.              1459WLB         2    20               21               3 yrs. 
Upshaw, Brenden         1526LCB         3    52               52               2 yrs. 
Rodgers, John           1521LCB         9    43               43               2 yrs. 
Evans, Raul             1528LCB         2    42               45               3 yrs. 
Maple, Richard          1537LCB         3    41               43               2 yrs. 
Fenimore, Raymond       1525LCB         2    29               47               3 yrs. 
McIntyre, Ron           1534RCB         5    61               61               3 yrs. 
Christakes, Zack        1639SS          3    57               57               2 yrs. 
Howe, Cesar             1638SS          10   44               44               2 yrs. 
Brinkley, Sergio        1645FS          12   44               44               1 yr.  
Cooper, Braxton         1620FS          5    40               40               1 yr.  
Patten, Shaquille       1631FS          2    28               38               3 yrs. 
Kampman, Antonio        670 LS          12   21               21               2 yrs. 
   
$$ - player is suspended, ## - player is inactive,  
** = player is injured, %% - player is on IR.  
   
Players Under Contract: 58
Inactive: 0
On Active Roster: 58
   
Salary Cap: $400,200,000
Cap Room: $23,660,000 
Front Office Football Eight
Maximum for New Player: $11,390,000
Cap Room Lost (to old contracts): $17,410,000
   
Cap Room Lost Next Year (to old contracts): $150,000
Cap Room Required Next Year: $282,760,000 

[QuikSand]

To do list for internal roster solving:

-if Gunn holds out, decide whether we can cut him
-figure out who plays where at LB, especially the Sam
-same thing at CB/S, a few guys either need to get starts or get out
-sort out RB situation (detailed above, but Mayo in the picture now)

Crisis level is pretty low. If we go with Mathews at QB, there's a chance that he's just a pick machine, and will kill us. He was 24/21 in his rookie season which is okay, but the 6.6 ypa suggests it might have been a conservative offense, and that's a lot of picks for a dumpoff guy. In our system (which I am not changing) he would be asked to throw a lot, and if he's just pick prone, he could put up an unacceptable stat line of something like 4400-7.5-28/25 and play himself right out of our long term plans.

[QuikSand]

So, why not change the offense? Basically because of this. I signed an unwanted hobo free agent Dave Fox, who had never thrown a TD pass in his short career, and he gave me one season like this -- 5275 yds, 8.5 ypa, 35/14 and the #5 QB in the league. (Side note - he did take 71 sacks and that's why he didn't get a second season, we went 7-9 after all)

My best player is my WR1. We targeted him 233 times and still managed to get 9.3 ypt from him, which is crazy. Average game for him is basically 14 targets, 9 catches, 130 yards and a TD.

So... bottom line: Duran is a monster, this league doesn't let opponents overgameplan around him, and nobody gets hurt. Put it all together, and this is what we are going to do. If it's Gunn back there, I'll be hoping for another season with a passer rating well over 100. If it's Mathews, I'll be less optimistic, but still expect us to be up and down the field by the air.

I like the guys we have in place at RB, and our running game ought to be credible, but make no mistake -- we run just to keep teams honest. We win by throwing the ball to our best player(s).

[QuikSand]

Gunn holds out. Yup. Easy to see coming.

So, let's take stock. I have $19m under the cap, and am going to need around $10m to extend DE Harmon, which I plan to do. DE Bernard is also holding out, and is a cut candidate - that would save us another $10m or so. If I wanted to extend WR Crook, that would cost me another $5m or so.

Gunn wants to go from $7m to $24m, and get another year. He's rated 43/43 now, and in year 13 is a candidate (but not a certainty) to slide down another 5 points or so in overall rating.

We have Mathews on the roster and just re-signed chem backup Barton, so cutting Gunn is firmly on the table here. Not really because we are cap strapped, just because the case for him being leaps and bounds better than Mathews isn't that strong, and Gunn is not the future under any circumstances.

So, this isn't the crisis it seemed like it could be. I'll consider a fat one year deal, but won't sacrifice a major re-signing to do it.

[QuikSand]

Ben's algorithm rates our rookie class #27 out of 32. That's not adjusted for draft position, it's not "value," it's just quality of the picks by a fairly reliable metric that I don't understand. Ben's Falcons finished #1, despite drafting from the #25 slot.

So, that's probably a fair assessment of how we did in adding talent.

From my eye:

DT Broomfield looks fine, but nothing special, i.e. no maxed-out ratings - ought to be a rotation caliber guy for some time, and will be a chem monster (36 leadership, 99 personality) which helps (and is impossible to forecast in the "improved" FOF game)

LB Lincoln looks like he should be pretty good, I think, I like that pick now, though I don't think he's the Sam we were hoping for, but he may be our Will for a long time

My other defensive picks all look... meh. Even if we get a couple of these guys show some signs of life in preseason (that fickle move from 24/36 to 29/41 from a guy like CB Hakeem) it will still be tough to see anyone truly earning starts to get plugged in as a long term asset.

Yeah... bad draft overall, probably. Fairly typical.

[QuikSand]

So, what should I make of a guy like RB Cooper Mayo?

I realize he's an 8th year guy, this is not a build-around player for us. What interests me is his productivity.

Drafted in the late 1st round, after one decent-not-great rookie year he gets traded to STL, a team that's usually a contender (so I don't suspect a dumbass gameplan in this mix). To my eye, Mayo looks pretty good... hardly any bad bars, big breakaway/outside ratings, and no voids. Seems to me like he should have been a solid RB1 for a long time.

Instead, he muddles around, getting three total seasons with 200+ carries, and a few more as a rotation guy. One season, he posts nice numbers - 201-1,041 for 5.18 ypc. He had another season with a weird 14 TD tally. But for his career, he's barely 4 ypc, and in FOF I think you expect more from that if you're investing in the position with either an early pick or a fat contract.

So... is this guy basically no good? I concluded that my recent castoff Drake Bryant was apparently just no good, despite a set of bars that looked decent-to-good to me.

I confess I don't understand running backs in this game. Maybe it's sample size. Maybe it's gameplan. Regardless... I would really like to have a sparkplug RB2 in this offense, and on paper, to me, Mayo looks like he should be that guy... I'd love to see him post 80-450 on the season, as a change-of-pace to our straight-ahead starter Banks getting me 200-1100.

But if Mayo instead delivers 80-350, I'm flushing money down the drain, and should instead just be using one of these young high-personality affinity clowns in that job. Anyone can give us 4 yards a carry behind this line, and in this offense.

So... beats me. I suspect I will just trust the bars that I see, and give him that hundred carries to prove me right or wrong.

[QuikSand]

Late free agency, pretty quiet. Biggest signing is a 4th year CB Chester Williams, who looks like a usable rotation player at CB, and who already has enough starts to earn chemistry effects (meaningful to us). My guess is he makes the roster and maybe sticks around for us for a long time as a CB4/CB5 type, but he's in a weird zone where he's not exactly "good" at much of anything -- decent coverage, decent special teams, some kick returning, and mediocre chemistry strength. Some of these guys get washed out in this league, since it's a no-injury league. In another league he'd be a much more valuable pickup, a guy who could actually step in give you 8 starts if a key starter suffered a big injury.

[QuikSand]

...the guy who Williams (above) might edge out is last year's 2nd round pick (sigh), Raymond Fenimore. Fenimore hasn't earned any starts, and has a bit less going for him in the apparent ratings department, and no special teams. We would have to manufacture starts for him to make a chem connection -- often with a former 2nd rounder I might do that, but here, perhaps not. Despite whatever I thought I saw in Fenimore last season in the draft, he looks like an odd man out for all those reasons.

[QuikSand]

Interesting guy I missed out in during the FA bidding this stage:

WR Skip Springer

Not a perfect fit for us - we throw downfield more than this guy really wants to, but if we were building this team up and looking for role players, have to like this guy's potential for big YAC, right? I'm kinda miffed I didn't push harder to land him, even just for a strong affinity and maybe 40 targets a season.

[QuikSand]

whiny, bitchy voice

Yesterday, I had prepped a file including a handful of things to do - some training camp weight changes, a contract offer to DE Bernard, that sort of stuff. But I failed to send it in from my work computer. Then my remote-in app failed me for some reason, and I DARE NOT send in a file from my home computer, lest my gameplan be rendered a total mess. Alas, no file in a critical stage, once again. It's my mistake, but the game sure doesn't make much of an effort to soften the blow when this sort of thing happens. I know, it's my fault for playing the game in an unconventional manner.

/rant

[QuikSand]

Okay, so the missing file basically means a few fairly small things.

I will put in a reneg offer for DE Bernard, but it's all-or-nothing. I feel I need him this year, to have a credible DE rotation, so I'll give him what he wants - even though that may well leave us with $3m+ in dead cap next year. Even if he fades in preseason (likely) a returning affinity DE with 65 PRTech and PRStr should be worth the money this year. Suck it up, buttercup.

DT Rudoff is probably an equal partner in the DE rotation this season, and will presumably be our DE1 next year. I do not expect to re-up now with DE Dillon Harmon, he wants $45m/yr and I just can't swing that much cap space his way. I will consider a strong offer next offseason, but it won't be $40 plus.

Past that, not a ton to report. We'll see how some of the young'ns look after a couple clicks of preseason. But I'm not really counting on them for a lot here. This year will mostly be about whether this offense is basically idiot-proof because of our skill position players, or whether a shaky QB can mess it up. The defense... well, who the hell knows?

[QuikSand]

Okay, today's a big day. Preseason is over, and we have to set things up for tomorrow's one-shot regular season.

Quick news: my draft has moved up the ratings to 17th in the league...not great, but not near the top, either. My overall assessment is that DT Broomfield (+1 to 44/71) will develop into a solid starter, LB Lincoln will be a longtime starter for us (solid skills but low endurance), 5th rd CB Hakeem may be a rotation guy, and undrafted LB Charlie Knight probably sticks, too.

Trying to sort out the RB situation, and that's proving tricky as presumably my last cut-down. Will post the roster as we head into the regular season later today.

[QuikSand]

Front Office Football Eight
Baltimore Ravens Roster, Scout Overview
   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct 
Mathews, Irving         109 QB    QB    3    44               50               2 yrs. 
Barton, Quinn           106 QB          8    23               23               2 yrs. 
Banks, Gabe             224 RB          2    54               54               3 yrs. 
Mayo, Cooper            227 RB    RB    8    46               46               3 yrs. 
Roberts, Joshua         229 RB          3    28               35               2 yrs. 
Pearson, Carlton        444 TE    TE    6    58               58               3 yrs. 
Doss, Alexander         482 TE    FB    3    48               48               2 yrs. 
##Duncan, Brett         443 TE          12   45               45               1 yr.  
Henson, Myles           448 TE          2    32               38               3 yrs. 
Duran, Luke             513 FL    FL    6    85               85               3 yrs. 
Woodworth, Larry        586 FL          5    31               31               2 yrs. 
Vukmir, Clayton         584 SE          4    59               59               4 yrs. 
Stallings, Johnny       517 SE    SE    2    57               70               3 yrs. 
##Crook, Ezra           511 SE          8    42               42               1 yr.  
Tatum, Dusty            510 SE          4    40               40               2 yrs. 
Adams, Rob              662 C     C     9    78               78               3 yrs. 
Mason, Corwin           761 LG    LG    6    73               73               3 yrs. 
LaPlace, Joshua         766 LG          9    26               26               2 yrs. 
Flowers, Billy          764 RG    RG    9    49               49               2 yrs. 
Fletcher, Kevin         863 LT    LT    6    71               71               4 yrs. 
McWilliams, Daquan      868 LT    RT    4    31               31               1 yr.  
Gaylor, Grayson         879 RT          3    35               35               2 yrs. 
Wolfe, Jumbo            904 P           4    86               86               3 yrs. 
Hancock, Kody           1003K           6    52               52               2 yrs. 
Harmon, Dillon          1196LDE   LDE   9    72               72               1 yr.  
Newton, Tommy           1149LDE         10   31               31               3 yrs. 
Rudoff, Mark            1199RDE   RDE   7    53               53               4 yrs. 
Bernard, Alex           1195RDE         12   48               48               2 yrs. 
Ricks, Julian           1293NT          11   60               60               3 yrs. 
Broomfield, Barry       1294NT    NT    1    44               71               4 yrs. 
Mallard, Chandler       1298NT          9    36               36               1 yr.  
Matthews, Caden         1355SILB  SILB  8    44               44               3 yrs. 
##Knight, Charlie       1354SILB        1    36               43               2 yrs. 
Emerson, Erick          1351WILB  WILB  3    48               53               2 yrs. 
DiGiacomo, Scott        1340WILB        6    31               31               2 yrs. 
Lincoln, Gabriel        1458SLB   SLB   1    42               60               4 yrs. 
Shapiro, Lance          1452SLB         6    38               38               3 yrs. 
Roller, Amir            1450WLB   WLB   6    47               47               3 yrs. 
Jenkins, Alvin          1447WLB         8    38               38               1 yr.  
Upshaw, Brenden         1526LCB   FS    3    49               49               2 yrs. 
Evans, Raul             1528LCB         2    47               47               3 yrs. 
Maple, Richard          1537LCB         3    42               42               2 yrs. 
Rodgers, John           1521LCB   RCB   9    41               41               2 yrs. 
##Hakeem, Nathaniel     1533LCB         1    37               46               4 yrs. 
McIntyre, Ron           1534RCB   LCB   5    61               61               3 yrs. 
Williams, Chester       1541RCB         4    39               39               2 yrs. 
##Brown, Glen           1542RCB         1    23               28               4 yrs. 
Christakes, Zack        1639SS    SS    3    57               57               2 yrs. 
Howe, Cesar             1638SS          10   44               44               2 yrs. 
Brinkley, Sergio        1645FS          12   40               40               1 yr.  
##Cooper, Braxton       1620FS          5    40               40               3 yrs. 
##Patten, Shaquille     1631FS          2    31               37               3 yrs. 
Kampman, Antonio        670 LS          12   21               21               2 yrs. 
   
$$ - player is suspended, ## - player is inactive,  
** = player is injured, %% - player is on IR.  
   
Players Under Contract: 53
Inactive: 7
On Active Roster: 46
   
Salary Cap: $400,200,000
Cap Room: $25,250,000
Maximum for New Player: $26,710,000
Cap Room Lost (to old contracts): $18,800,000
   
Cap Room Lost Next Year (to old contracts): $3,170,000
Cap Room Required Next Year: $304,340,000 

Pretty sure this is it. We are not optimized for chemistry, falling short in a few slots, but we'll be better off there than anyone in the league, even the others who are trying to use this route to build rosters.

For reference:

Baltimore Ravens Roster, Attitude Advisory
   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Noted Playing Time    Chemistry  
Barton, Quinn           106 QB                      1 Affinity with   
Mathews, Irving         109 QB    QB                1 Affinity with   
Mayo, Cooper            227 RB    RB                Backfield Leader  
Roberts, Joshua         229 RB                      Potential Affini  
Banks, Gabe             224 RB                        
##Duncan, Brett         443 TE          MN          Exceptional Affi  
Doss, Alexander         482 TE    FB                Affinity          
Pearson, Carlton        444 TE    TE                Mild Affinity     
Henson, Myles           448 TE                      Potential Affini  
Duran, Luke             513 FL    FL    MN          Strong Affinity   
Woodworth, Larry        586 FL                      Potential Affini  
##Crook, Ezra           511 SE          MN          Receivers Leader  
Vukmir, Clayton         584 SE                      Exceptional Affi  
Tatum, Dusty            510 SE                      Potential Affini  
Stallings, Johnny       517 SE    SE                  
Adams, Rob              662 C     C     MN          Affinity          
LaPlace, Joshua         766 LG                      Offensive Line L  
Mason, Corwin           761 LG    LG                  
Flowers, Billy          764 RG    RG    MN          Mild Affinity     
McWilliams, Daquan      868 LT    RT                Exceptional Affi  
Fletcher, Kevin         863 LT    LT                  
Gaylor, Grayson         879 RT                        
Wolfe, Jumbo            904 P                         
Hancock, Kody           1003K                         
Newton, Tommy           1149LDE                     Defensive Front   
Harmon, Dillon          1196LDE   LDE                 
Rudoff, Mark            1199RDE   RDE               Exceptional Affi  
Bernard, Alex           1195RDE                     Strong Affinity   
Broomfield, Barry       1294NT    NT                Exceptional Affi  
Ricks, Julian           1293NT          MN          Strong Affinity   
Mallard, Chandler       1298NT                      Affinity          
Matthews, Caden         1355SILB  SILB              Exceptional Affi  
##Knight, Charlie       1354SILB                    Potential Affini  
DiGiacomo, Scott        1340WILB                    Exceptional Affi  
Emerson, Erick          1351WILB  WILB              Potential Affini  
Shapiro, Lance          1452SLB                     Exceptional Affi  
Lincoln, Gabriel        1458SLB   SLB               Exceptional Affi  
Jenkins, Alvin          1447WLB                     Strong Affinity   
Roller, Amir            1450WLB   WLB               Strong Affinity   
Rodgers, John           1521LCB   RCB               Affinity          
Upshaw, Brenden         1526LCB   FS                Affinity          
Maple, Richard          1537LCB                     Potential Affini  
Evans, Raul             1528LCB                     Potential Affini  
##Hakeem, Nathaniel     1533LCB                     Potential Affini  
Williams, Chester       1541RCB                     Affinity          
##Brown, Glen           1542RCB                     Potential Affini  
McIntyre, Ron           1534RCB   LCB                 
Howe, Cesar             1638SS                      Secondary Leader  
Christakes, Zack        1639SS    SS                Mild Affinity     
##Cooper, Braxton       1620FS                      Strong Affinity   
Brinkley, Sergio        1645FS                      Affinity          
##Patten, Shaquille     1631FS                      Potential Affini  
Kampman, Antonio        670 LS          MN            

So, a few weaknesses here. RT McWilliams sat out last year on my missed-file mistake, and is pissed off. We lost our good OL group leader, and couldn't find a strong replacement. But if things work out, McWilliams will be happy after starting this year (despite a ratings slip), and will step into that role and bring everyone together in time.

RB should shift midseason, after Roberts gets his starts, and they will be major exceptional affinities. Roberts doesn't look like much, but he projects as RB3 forever for us, now -- he'll anchor our chemistry and connect with both our young QB and RB starters.

We won't be able to get WR Woodworth plugged in this year, just not enough starts to go around. I'm not willing to sacrifice 16 targets to Duran to get that taken care of, so it will wait until next year.

Rest looks fine. One DE and one CB grabbed for skills, ignoring chemistry, everyone else on the whole defense is on board. A couple guys are just steeping until ready later, like S Patten and LB Knight. We'll see if they ever graduate to get starts.

[QuikSand]

Goals for this season:

-offense back into top tier, at least in gross yardage and points
-defense...idano, middle of the pack overall
-QB Mathews not a pick machine, give me 8.5 ypa and better than 2:1 ratio
-12 wins and a bye week

We'll see.

[QuikSand]

In Ben's preseason power ratings, we are 8th.

Cleveland is rated #2, and comes off another outstanding draft, so maybe my hopes of a bye week are a bit ambitious. We should be in the mix for the playoffs, and I'd like to think we are a possible elite team, but if I were simply predicting (rather than hoping) I'd peg us more like a 10-6 #5 seed.

[QuikSand]

So, today is (for us, usually) the BIG reveal day. Since we tend to just lay an egg in the postseason anyway, we basically just live for regular season glory.

Yesterday, I had waffled on predicting 12-4/bye and 10-6/WC... but I had not considered a blended option...

Front Office Football Eight
2067 Summary for Baltimore Ravens
   
Year                2067                                      
Record              12-4                                      
Winning Pct.        .750                                      
All-Time            522-405-1                                 
Winning Pct.        .563                                      
Playoffs            12-31                                     
Playoff Visits      32                                        
Bowl Wins           0                                         
Head Coach          Orlando Morris                            
Record              60-53                                     
Winning Pct.        .530                                      
Off. Coord.         D. Bruce                                  
Def. Coord.         W. Tubbs                                  
Asst. Coach         L. Kacyvenski                             
Stren. Coord.       D. Tisdale                                
   
Baltimore Ravens        Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         22.3      27          
Rushing Yards           95.7      27          
Yards Per Carry         4.29      22          
Pass Attempts           40.3      4           
Completions             27.6      1           
Completion Pct.         68.5      5           
Passing Yards           325.8     1           
Yards Per Attempt       8.08      5           
Yards Per Catch         11.79     8           
Total Yardage Gained    411.1     3           
3rd Down Conversions    36.8      17          
Points Per Game         33.2      1           
Pass Rush Pct.          20.7      5 (T)       
Pass Defense Pct.       50.4      10          
Turnovers               28        28 (T)      
Turnover Margin         +4        9           
   
Opponents               Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         23.6      6           
Rushing Yards           106.4     11          
Yards Per Carry         4.51      17          
Pass Attempts           39.6      30          
Completions             24.4      26          
Completion Pct.         61.5      8           
Passing Yards           253.7     11          
Yards Per Attempt       6.40      4           
Yards Per Catch         10.41     3           
Total Yardage Gained    347.3     9           
3rd Down Conversions    33.9      8 (T)       
Points Per Game         19.8      3           
Pass Rush Pct.          13.6      1           
Pass Defense Pct.       45.8      15          
Turnovers               32        1 (T)       
   
Week  Team  Versus        Oppnt  
1     47    CLE           32      
2     17    at ARI        30      
3     37    at IND        24      
4     26    NJY           13      
5     30    at NED        37      
7     40    BUF           22      
8     40    at CIN        10      
9     28    at CLE        31      
10    16    at MIA        20      
11    28    PIT           14      
12    31    SFO           28      
13    34    SDO           6       
14    44    STL           20      
15    13    at PIT        3       
16    49    at SEA        10      
17    51    CIN           16      
$$WC        at HOU                
   
Passing                 Pos   Att   Comp  Yards Y/Att TD    Int   Rate  
9 I. Mathews            QB    625   431   5113  8.18  47    23    103.4   
**Team                  ---   645   442   5212  8.08  47    23    102.3   
$$Opp                   ---   634   390   4059  6.40  24    20    79.5    
    
Front Office Football Eight
Rushing                 Pos   Att   Yards Y/Att TD    Fum  
24 G. Banks             RB    255   1172  4.60  5     4       
27 C. Mayo              RB    71    232   3.27  3     0       
**Team                  ---   357   1531  4.29  8     11      
$$Opp                   ---   378   1703  4.51  6     18      
   
Receiving               Pos   Targ  Catch Yards Y/Ctc Y/Tar Drop  TD  
13 L. Duran             WR    270   173   2501  14.46 9.26  13    30      
82 A. Doss              TE    83    67    658   9.82  7.93  4     8       
84 C. Vukmir            WR    63    40    444   11.10 7.05  2     3       
44 C. Pearson           TE    56    38    372   9.79  6.64  1     0       
24 G. Banks             RB    51    33    198   6.00  3.88  3     3       
27 C. Mayo              RB    38    30    304   10.13 8.00  1     1       
17 J. Stallings         WR    44    29    302   10.41 6.86  1     2       
86 L. Woodworth         WR    28    22    315   14.32 11.25 0     0       
   
Defense                 Pos   Tack  Asst  Sack  Hurr  Ints  Defn  PDPct  
55 C. Matthews          ILB   123   37    2.0   3     1     6     73.0    
51 E. Emerson           ILB   121   31    0.0   1     0     7     70.4    
39 Z. Christakes        S     78    28    0.0   0     1     4     76.9    
34 R. McIntyre          CB    48    16    0.0   0     5     7     83.6    
45 S. Brinkley          S     47    7     0.0   0     0     7     76.3    
52 L. Shapiro           OLB   45    18    0.0   0     1     4     72.1    
26 B. Upshaw            CB    40    13    0.0   0     7     7     86.6    
96 D. Harmon            DE    37    15    9.0   33    1     0     82.5    
50 A. Roller            OLB   35    16    0.0   0     1     4     81.2    
28 R. Evans             CB    35    11    0.0   0     0     10    77.9    
58 G. Lincoln           OLB   29    14    0.0   0     0     2     74.1    
99 M. Rudoff            DE    28    8     10.5  21    0     0     81.8    
93 J. Ricks             DT    23    4     4.0   13    0     0     81.8     

So, we end up 12-4, but that's only good enough for the wild card, as the Browns lived up to billing and went 12-3-1 for the bye week. Ugh.

[QuikSand]

First things first. Luke Duran. How does this performance NOT merit being named league MVP? 2500 yards on 9.3 ypt and 30 TD?

[QuikSand]

Okay, some grade-carding, quickly:

QB Mathews - he's good enough. Too many picks, but we can take the bottom line numbers (being buoyed by a superstar WR getting an insane 17 targets a game).

WR Duran - monster.

Running game - barely acceptable. Mayo just stinks, as we feared, those bars are just a lie, I guess. Banks only fumbles 4 times and gives us B-grade stats...we'll take it.

Pass rush - fine. 20.7 PR% is top-five, DE Rudoff fit right in. Harmon is still our best guy. Rotation was fine.

Run defense - meh, too hard to gauge. I suspect we're okay there, but we lack a true run-stuffer at SLB, which I prefer.

Pass defense overall - 6.4 ypa allowed, I like it a lot, especially given how young/new we are. Over time, give guys like Upshaw and Evans a few years to become cohesion assets, and we ought to be above average here for a long time.

Anyway... basically pleased with this offseason, and the payoff here. Tough luck to be in the division with a top-tier foe like ... Cleveland? Anyway, we'll hope for the best in the playoffs, anything can happen, but we fully understand that it just doesn't happen for us.

[QuikSand]

Hmm, looking at our TE situation. Without revealing a ton of junk about the gameplan, I had expected to see my top two TEs more or less split the targets this year. I had Doss in as the FB in most of the formations where we had one (have zero on the roster), but also used him in the 1-2-2 and 1-3-1 personnel as the Y. Pearson, the $12m/yr new guy, was supposed to be the nominal starter, and I thought he'd probably get around 80 targets, and Doss maybe 50-60.

Turns out:

Pearson (55/55, GD 40, RR 49, BP 54)
452 pass plays, 56 targets, 68% comp, 9.8 ypc, 6.6 ypt, 107 yac

Doss (48/48, GD 79, RR 50, BP 47)
414 pass plays, 83 targets, 80% comp, 9.8 ypc, 7.9 ypt, 405 yac

Hmmm... I initially found it hard to believe that Doss was actually picking up a lot of FB targets and making that much hay out of them, but I'm leaning toward that theory. The impressive YAC seems to seal the deal for me (and his GD rating backs it up). Might be onto something there... if half of that production came from the FB slot, that's way above replacement, right?

[QuikSand]

Relevant side note. Should have extended QB Mathews. He was asking for $12m/yr I think, and was open to a 4yr deal. Next year is year 4 of his rookie contract, and we will have to pay him. I'm guessing that will costs me twice that, after this 5,100yd/47TD season.

[corbes]

*crowd noise*

IR-VING MATH-EWS
clap, clap, clap-clap-clap

IR-VING MATH-EWS
clap, clap, clap-clap-clap

IR-VING MATH-EWS
clap, clap, clap-clap-clap

*crowd noise*

[johnnyshaka]

Oh boy...Matthews came apart at the seams.

[QuikSand]

So..postseason. About what I might have expected.

2067 Postseason Complete

We get a road win, then lose at Kansas City (chanting corbes, from above, the GM who dispatched us). It's fine, we got what we deserved, more or less.

Good season, and I feel like we have some solid momentum toward next year, an presumably the Irving Mathews era (which is really just a chapter of the continuing Luke Duran era, truth be told).

[QuikSand]

Yup, Mathews is gonna get paid. Asking for 4/118, so my guess that he'd end up with $25/yr sounds just about right. Don't really have another option here, I don't think, after that first season.

[QuikSand]

Setting up for early free agency, and we are surprisingly set already. 45 players signed, and looking quickly, no more than a few who are obvious candidates to replace easily.

Offseason targets, more or less:

-long term help along the DL (Broomfield fine, but have nobody else young)
-right side of offensive line (improve on old RG, faded RT)
-D7 chemistry leadership after retirement loss
-RB2 (I guess this Mayo guy just sucks)
-WR chem leadership

I'm always open to a big move that turns a B into an A somewhere, but as far as serious needs go, the list is pretty short this year. If I can land a long term pass rusher asset in the draft, that would pretty much be all we really need.

But...with $100m in cap space, we have to at least dabble around. So, stay tuned.

[QuikSand]

So, we can neither confirm nor deny the rumors that the Ravens actually talked with another team about trading away QB Irving Mathews. We would aggressively restate that we are committed to him as our build-around passer going forward, and resist any suggestions to the contrary.

Now, it is also true that we will be watching a certain combine-freak QB Kai "The Golden Hurricane" DeVore with some particular interest in the seasons ahead. Just for, you know, academic purposes.

[QuikSand]

I'd also take the wager that over DeVore's likely brilliant career, if we use a simple additive total of passing TDs plus 100yds passing, he will never have a season that tops Mathews' 51+47=98 from last year. So, there's that.

[QuikSand]

First stage of free agency, there are HUGE fish out there, and with all this cap space, I had to drop in my pole. Several solid offers, but only one lands my my target - I overpaid for a top tier CB who should be a great fit, Pedro Sutter. $27m/yr is a lot to pay a guy who has yet to really deliver CB1-caliber stats, but we should get more from him, I think.

We also re-up with DE Dillon Harmon. With those two moves, and an anticipated extension with QB Mathews, we are probably done with big splash moves this offseason, already. I know I said that last offseason, and didn't follow through, but here I think we're just splashing around the rest of the way.

[QuikSand]

In round one, we take a DL, pretty much as I pledged we would. I'll skip the screen shot, but Damian Baker is a 314 lb DT (late in the first round, it's far more likely to get quality at DT than DE) whom we hope will lose a little weight and slide out to play at LDE for us. Maxed-out PRStrength, no void skills, pretty solid combines -- but not the "perfect bar" combination, and his PRTech looks like it might project to something in the 40s or 50s. This isn't a home run swing, much like last year we're just trying to get a base hit with a need-driven pick. I have a devil of a time getting quality D-linemen anywhere past round one, so this is pretty normal for me to draft at this position.

[QuikSand]

QB Irving Mathews signs my first serious contract offer -- presumably meaning I could have screwed him more than I realized. 5/110 is less than he would have made in the open market, I guess. He's not an apparently massive talent -- only rated 50/50 overall by my scout -- but getting a "good enough" guy at QB is pretty essential, just like in that other league. So, he fits the bill, fits in with our chem scheme, and we're done for a while at that position. Yay.

[QuikSand]

No new F signings this stage. We weren't even beat out for anyone. Told you I was mainly done.

We are the high bidder on 5 free agents, none over $5m/yr, so we are still active - just not in the exciting tier. We have competition for DT Chandler Mallard, a nice rotation-caliber DT who is mainly a pass rusher. A 10th year guy, not exactly our future, but he's an affinity and a guy who has played with us for three seasons, so we will have to weight an offer to retain him over Kansas City (snarls at corbes). Not a crisis either way, really, especially after spending a first round pick on the DL already.

For the stages ahead, I really don't have any fires I'm trying to put out. We will likely sign a few more of my style of guys (rotation-caliber skills, affinity, not hotly pursued by anyone else) to cut-friendly deals, just to have some camp stiffs. Every year a couple of these guys stick on something like 2xMinSal and end up staying on the team for 3,6,9 seasons.

In a no-injury league, you can plan more firmly for the long term, and can afford to further marginalize some of the positions on your depth chart at the moment.

[QuikSand]

This spot is always fun. The guy who was #2 on my draft target list when I selected in late round 1 - he's still there at pick 2.19, only 7 pics away from us at 2.26. He's not a super standout, just an affinity fit at a need position who looks like he'd make a nice long term starter for us in this league. Fine for a 2st rounder, bur GREAT for a 2nd rounder -- at least as far as my experience goes.

Recall, my quick self-confession is that I am not a talented drafter... in part this is because I really only look seriously at a sixth of the players out there, but there's no way to fully chicken-and-egg this stuff. Do I play/organize through chemistry and sacrifice great draft picks to do so? Or do I play/organize through chemistry because I'm not good enough to make great draft picks, and this is a workaround for that?

Anyway... in a more nearly perfect world, I'd burn up the phone lines trying to deal up for this pick. But I'm getting ready to check out of a hotel room in Austin, I have my sights set on a bak'n cheezeburger for lunch, and I simply don't have the luxury of attending to much FOF stuff right now. So, if my guy lands in m lap, I'll be delighted -- it's not out of the question, but my usual luck would dictate that he'll fall to one pick before mine, just to maximize the irritation.