Possible coup attempt in Turkey

[cartman]

Reports of bridges being closed and military showing up all over Istanbul.

Turkey soldiers launch 'illegal action' - PM Yildirim - BBC News

[bhlloy]

This has the potential to be an absolutely massive story or could be nothing - but tanks on the streets of Istanbul and Ankara doesn't sound like nothing.

Nightmare scenario in the west would be a successful coup followed by a popular uprising pushing the country further to the fundamentalist side. Erdogan is not a good man but he's at least keeping the country reasonably in step with what the west wants/needs

[bulletsponge]

yep, gl getting them into the EU now

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Nightmare scenario in the west would be a successful coup followed by a popular uprising pushing the country further to the fundamentalist side. Erdogan is not a good man but he's at least keeping the country reasonably in step with what the west wants/needs

Well Turkey has a looooong history of the army stepping in when it thinks the leader (Erdogan in this case) is getting too Islamic theocratic. Erdogan has been skating that line for a bit.

[Ben E Lou]

Report: Turkish military releases statement, saying armed forces have 'fully seized control' of the country.

— The Associated Press (@AP) July 15, 2016

[ISiddiqui]

The President apparently says they haven't... so things are a bit confused at the moment.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

The President apparently says they haven't... so things are a bit confused at the moment.

Regardless of who may control what area at this minute, the sheer fact that they have released competing statements is.....not good.

[cartman]

The Guardian has a live update feed going as things are being released.

Turkey coup attempt: military claims takeover of government –Â*live | World news | The Guardian

[ISiddiqui]

Though it seems like Erdogan is out of the country at the moment. This whole coup thing really puts a damper on his attempts to be Putin-lite .

[Ben E Lou]

Latest statement from military was read on Turksih state TV. Sounds like they control that, at least for now.

The Associated Press on Twitter: "BREAKING: Military statement read on Turkish state TV: Armed forces have seized power, citing rising autocratic rule, increased terrorism."

[cartman]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Well Turkey has a looooong history of the army stepping in when it thinks the leader (Erdogan in this case) is getting too Islamic theocratic. Erdogan has been skating that line for a bit.

Sounds like this is being listed as a reason. A statement read on TV mentioned that the 'secular rule of law' was being undermined.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Well Turkey has a looooong history of the army stepping in when it thinks the leader (Erdogan in this case) is getting too Islamic theocratic. Erdogan has been skating that line for a bit.

No doubt - but the guy got over 50% of support in an election just a few years ago and is massively popular in some areas of Turkey. The question is what happens next.

[bhlloy]

DOLA - this is an impressive piece of foresight and I hope it all works out like this. The flip side could well be that the Turks and the Kurds work together and the Turks finally start going after ISIS.

Will There Be a Coup Against Erdogan in Turkey?

[NobodyHere]

So what's better for the US, the coup succeeding or failing?

[Edward64]

I vote better. Erdogan was no friend of the US.

[cartman]

Sounds like things are escalating. Report of tanks firing rounds and police trying to arrest soldiers.

[cartman]

There's a live stream now on the link I posted earlier. Lots of protestors, shots being fired, and people booing the shots.

[whomario]

Erdogan is the scum of the earth and not better than a lot of Dictators the US spent billions of dollars trying to get rid of.

The way he recently, again, reacted to the discourse on the armenian genocide of 1915/1916 (if you never heard about it 1915 AGHET - The Armenian Genocide (In English) - YouTube ) internationally (fuck Obama here, btw) tells you all you need to know about where he stands morally and as a person.

Not that i think that a military coup is a terribly good idea long term, mind you ...

Originally Posted by bhlloy

No doubt - but the guy got over 50% of support in an election just a few years ago and is massively popular in some areas of Turkey. The question is what happens next.

and since then has lost a lot of support from what i could gather, by overstepping his boundaries. Remember that he is not Prime Minister, but President which (contrary to the US) is supposed to be more of a ceremonial/representory office. The fact that 90% of the people in the world that know his name would think otherwise should tell you sth about how he has interpreted it. Basically did a Putin and appointed his guy as PM while essentially working towards unifying both offices. This type of thing should ring a few bells ...

It might also be prudent to call it an "election" in "" because of the massive amount of oppression of the independent Press and of the oppositions campaigns including armed attacks on representatives as well as on the headquarters of newspapers and opposition parties. Basically, it was a 1-party campaign ...
In addition to this there was a pretty massive uptick from even government-initiated polls to the actual election result (and consistently 10+% from independent/opposition polls), which was "fishy" at best. There was also the matter of the terrorist attacks, which in combination with the surround-broadcasting of statewide news agencies and TV quite likely created a massive imbalance in terms of which parties could reach voters with their message.

Quite simply, the election (like many before in Turkey) had a lot of the hallmarks of a dictatorial process with the added difficulty of a rather low level of political education/knowledge among large parts of the population. And IMO a lot of the "ignorant" and/or influence voters for Erdogan and his party are going to be pro-military as well in a "well, if the military steps in, they will have their reasons".

There will likely be massive backlash from his political party/supporters and i see no way this does not end up very, very chaotic for a long time. But there´s nuance, too, when it comes to judging the support for him overall.

But maybe i´m wrong, not really an expert on turkish politics ...

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Well Turkey has a looooong history of the army stepping in when it thinks the leader (Erdogan in this case) is getting too Islamic theocratic. Erdogan has been skating that line for a bit.

This come pretty close, imo.

[JonInMiddleGA]

This is kinda starting to look like it's going south :/

[whomario]

Germany refused Erdogan political asylum ...

[whomario]

The number of soldiers looks pretty small on a lot of these pictures ... Some commanders of troups assigned to Istanbul have ordered their soldiers to return to their quarters as well. And opposition parties have released statements condemning the attempt. Seems pretty much over ...

And anybody who thinks that a then-emboldened Erdogan is good for anybody is in for a rude awakening.

[Groundhog]

Just saw rockets hit a government building? Dont know if it's over just yet.

[whomario]

Military is shutting down independent media outlets like the FOX and CNN Affiliates in the country and also anti-government newspaper offices ... Seems an odd course to me ...

Also explosions at the Airport where Erdogan was reported as "due to land any minute" about 20 minutes ago.

The reddit news-ticker compiling a ton of sources: [live] Turkish military locks down bridges of Bosphorus that connecting European & Asian sides of Istanbul; Possible Coup!

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by whomario

Military is shutting down independent media outlets like the FOX and CNN Affiliates in the country and also anti-government newspaper offices ... Seems an odd course to me ...

Not really, you'd almost certainly want control of as much as possible in the initial stages, no matter who you are / what your eventual aims are.

And, let's face it, Western Media can't really be considered a reliable ally in this situation. You've already got at least one western government (the U.S.) publicly backing Erdogan.

[djsatu]

Prophecy In The Making.: UPDATE...BREAKING NEWS...DECAPITATING ILLUMINATI HEADS IN TURKEY...

[Young Drachma]

So is this manufactured by Erdogan as an excuse to consolidate power? Thinking aloud.

[Groundhog]

Looks like at least one captured soldier has been decapitated post-coup attempt...

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Young Drachma

So is this manufactured by Erdogan as an excuse to consolidate power? Thinking aloud.

as someone who has argued against more conspiracies than i care to remember ... I´ll allow it. In any case, he will make use of it heavily.

Next step would be the "Gleichschaltung" (unification ?) of military and police, a pushback against critic elements (that was already latent, especially at Universities), reintroducing the death penalty. Maybe even formalizing executive powers for the presidents office. Let´s see where we stand in 6 months ...

Erdogan apparently blaming US-based Fethullah Gülen and his "movement" ( Gülen movement - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia ) as he´s done before and asking for him to be extradicted, "or else ...!".

At least a handful involved have escaped to Greece, be interesting what they can tell of the motivation behind this.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

Looks like at least one captured soldier has been decapitated post-coup attempt...

Make that "numerous" killed/lynched/executed instead of being arrested.


also:

[PilotMan]

I was talking with the wife last night about this and said that looking at everything else we've seen in the middle east, the last thing that we need, no matter how shitty Erdogan has been, is another destabilized state in that area.

If the coup had succeeded, or left the country in a state of civil war, we'd have been left with an incredible mess on the doorstep of Europe and in a massive proxy war with Russia. Not to mention a new home for ISIS to recruit or work from.

The end result of this may be a country with limited freedom's and one that politically looks a lot more like Iran with a leader who will be a thorn in the side of the west. But if we've learned anything from the last 15 years, it's that no question, shitty leaders are far superior to failed states and total geographic disruption.

[whomario]

I think you underestimate the amount of damage that can come from an organized and heavily militarized/radicalized Turkey under a "supreme leader" leaning heavily away from secular rule/"the West". For example i think it´ll be pretty doubtfull he´ll even pretend to do anything against ISIS in the near future (hasn´t been "doing" stuff but at least went through the motions so far).

Just now there´s an announcement that about 2750 judges, including from what is the equivalent of the supreme court, have been dismissed.

In that light:

Democracy is like a train. We shall get out when we arrive at the station we want.

Recep Erdogan in 1997


The crazy thing here is that he was actually doing good things for quite a while, both as Mayor of Istanbul and PM of Turkey. At some point he either snapped or that was all an act/him doing what he needed to get more and more power.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Young Drachma

So is this manufactured by Erdogan as an excuse to consolidate power? Thinking aloud.

a dozen tanks, 2 airplanes, maybe a thousand soldiers, doing it at 9.30 in the evening, the air force allegedly involved yet the president able to safely fly cross-country ... I think there´s a lot to think about here, loudly or otherwise.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by whomario

a dozen tanks, 2 airplanes, maybe a thousand soldiers, doing it at 9.30 in the evening, the air force allegedly involved yet the president able to safely fly cross-country ... I think there´s a lot to think about here, loudly or otherwise.

I'm with you in this. This seems awfully fishy.

[bhlloy]

Yeah, I also despise most conspiracy theories but this one has a lot of legs I think. Add to the things also mentioned the speed in which he was able to get massive numbers of his supporters onto the streets in the big cities, areas where typically he doesn't have huge support and are extremely secular. And the convenience that he's vacationing outside the city but in the country, and is able to fly in on his white horse at the time of need.

Completely staged is probably unlikely (as people died on both sides and the coup participants had to know they are basically signing a death warrant for themselves) but I think encouraged and influenced with Erdogan's full knowledge is probably pretty likely at this point.

[whomario]

Could still be he was simply willing to sacrifice a few foot soldiers, literally and figuratively ...

But more realistically I figure it might have been a combination of knowing beforehand and influencing them to act (or rush it by letting leak into the group he was about to act himself), both due to having placed people loyal to him strategically within the coup-group or however you want to call it ...

[JonInMiddleGA]

A quick brush up on Erdogan's history suggests that he's more of a standard 2nd/3rd world dictator type than a sincere "fundamentalist".

His first political appearances were with an anti-communist group, then he shifted to a Muslim extremist outfit, then to a different one of those.

Seems like an opportunist rather than a true believer in much of anything other than his own power.

[Dutch]

He also was the leader of the Islamists when parliament voted wether to allow US ground forces use Tirkish bases to invade Iraq.

His party said yes, the EU party said no. So he only got 66% of the 75% they needed.

Strange but true.

[Critch]

Originally Posted by Young Drachma

So is this manufactured by Erdogan as an excuse to consolidate power? Thinking aloud.

Looks like we might find out soon, WikiLeaks are going to release 300k internal emails from Erdogan's AKP party tomorrow.

[Groundhog]

With some of what's been slowly leaking out, I have very little faith that this coup will end up being anything but heavily engineered by Erdogan himself.

[whomario]

I actually kinda believe the version of the coup-people trying to beat Erdogan and his purge (apparently long planned and due last Saturday anyway) to the punch. Quite possible though that Erdogan leaked the date to provoke them to act.

The terrible thing about this (or rather the jadedness of the world) is that the fact that these people felt that a coup is the only chance tells you a whole damn lot about the way that "justice" is interpreted in Turkey. And it´s going to get a whole lot worse before long now ...

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Turkey fires 21,000 teachers and demands suspension of every university dean in country in post-coup crackdown

[Dutch]

That's not good. Turkey is gonna be fuuuuuucked in the long run for whatever just happened.

[JPhillips]

I'm sure we'll put up with a lot to keep Incirlik open, but what has to happen for NATO membership to be theatened?

[whomario]

This is not a "on paper thing" btw from what is going on in academic circles. There´s literally a purge happening right now ... The Universities have been on high alert for a while now as well and there is close to zero academic diversity in terms of current political science or neuralgic events in turkish history.
This isn´t a spontaneous reaction to the Coup and has nothing to do with any sort of involvement. Basically everybody in Academia without a clear track record of Party-compliance is going to be treated on a "guilty until proven otherwise" basis. Oh, lots of these people will be re-instated after a while i bet, but are going to have a sword of Damokles hanging over their head at all times.

And in 50 years Historians will debate as to how in the World anybody was buying this. And the painting of the Gülen-Movement as a terrorist organization will be viewed with the same bewilderment. Yes, that movement has a few curious characteristics, but it´s not only the lesser evil but actually a very much workable alternative to what seem the only 2 options: Assimilation or Exclusion. They are both inwardly organised and based on faith, but also deeply involved in and working with it´s surroundings, be it in the US or Germany or elsewhere. But hey, they are educating and they are islam, so they must be faking it and really be dangerous.

[whomario]

Democracy was just significantly weakened in Turkey, with Erdogan now gaining vast power previously held by Parliament.

The fact he only gained a shade above 50% (the fact that's all that was needed is insane in itself) despite a massive campaign aimed at supressing opposition (including physical violence) makes this even more terrible in my eyes.

[JPhillips]

And apparently they won't release results in large opposition friendly areas.