WW XCIII - Mine Wars - Battle of Blair Mountain - SYMPATHIZERS WIN!!!

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Right, I get what your point is, but you also said, "I didn't see a darn thing you typed before I left for the day, Pass." That's what I was calling out.

Based on what he said it sounds like he didn't read the posts in between, so you're trying to call him out on something he's not lying about?

As has been said though lets get back on track.


Work on Oratory

seems fitting since I've been running my mouth all morning.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Kind of feeling the same way Poli. Heinz mentioned something about people being hyper-aggressive or whatever, and that was probably aimed at me. I don't know why, but the last two games left me fairly frustrated (one in which I played very well and the other in which I got railroaded early and let it untrack me the rest of the way) and I think I'm carrying that into here. I'm going to try to be a bit more calm but, for some reason, it feels like it's been building.


I miss the teamwork aspect of the dungeon game which, even though it wasn't set up to be a teamwork game, turned into a pretty good one. I may have to take one of the next game off.

Actually, not at all you PB.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Hrm. Lots to digest this morning. Is there an updated work count?

I'll work on that.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by RendeR

In whichever group they chose to fake they only required ONE wolf with a Xsomething multiplier to make us fail entirely. If we had overloaded the food they would have faked something else. EVen if we did so and they faked and we narroed our list down its still a 1 in what? 4-5 people shot at catching someone? I'd rather have our items. its a safer bet at helping us.

No. If we had four extra units on food, they would need two poeple to fake it. Yes, AS I SAID, they could fake on the other two jobs, but that would narrow our targets down to 1/2 in Organizing (since two were specialists and two not), or 1/2 in Patrol. These are the ACTUAL numbers, and the actual facts. You can throw around random estimated things all you want but the truth is, not knowing they could arrest, we could have:

1. Had a 1/2 chance of Ousting a Sympathizer.
2. Or forced the Sympathizers to fake twice in food, including two speicalists, or fake three times, one specialist and two others.

Disagree about what the right call is all you want, but these are the actual numbers.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I'll work on that.

Actually, I thought getting a work count would be a nice break, but if I'm not going to be up in everyone's grill, I should be doing real work. Someone else can do it. :P

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I'll work on that.

Thanks. I'll get in my order when that gets posted.

As for voting, I don't know. I'm tempted to go with RendeR or Poli just by the likelihood that one of us is a wolf, but I don't think that's necessarily true.

Danny's play has struck me a little oddly this game, I'm gonna go back and review what he's been saying.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Actually, not at all you PB.

Must have been me? Anyway, since it's been a while, here's my answer to Autumn's question (which no one else answered, except maybe RendeR):

It certainly wasn't a generally held conclusion on Day 1. Didn't we make sure that we had three extra man-hours in each area then? The problem, in my mind, was that we weren't going to be able to get three extra man-hours in each area Day 2.

[jeheinz72]

Good golly. I'm suddenly reminded of why I took a break from WW. This bickering over minor points is just maddening to read.

The funny part is, I was all set to drop a vote on Pass for his needless interrogation of Poli.

That was until Mr. Poli pulled the "Im takin' my ball and goin' home" bit, which I really really can't stand.

Blargh. One would hope that as reward for having to read that nonsense I'd at least get an easy voting choice.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Must have been me? Anyway, since it's been a while, here's my answer to Autumn's question (which no one else answered, except maybe RendeR):

Yes it was you. And while I know your general tactic is to interrogate someone over and over hoping to catch them in a lie (one you've attempted on me before in past games), I think this was a bit over-the-top there my man.

[Autumn]

Gladhanding: dubbx3, clapx3, jeheinzx3 9/8
Oratory: Purduex3, Daddyx3, Autumn, Render 8/8
Treasury: Barkeepx3, EagleFan, USFL 5/8
Organization: ntndeaconx3, Poli 4/8

[Autumn]

So, I think we have 7 more laborers to commit work still. If Schmidty shows up, that gives us three extra hours to put somewhere.

[jeheinz72]

I really think it's a big case of MMQB to go back and blame all the mission-goers after the fact. In hindsight, was their action ideal? Probably not.

But facts are we missed the camp because they arrested EF, not because we were short people. If we had missed the camp because of faked work, then honestly I wouldn't have been all that sad as we'd at least have a list of candidates to work from for today.

Obviously, given the fact that the wolves likely deemed it more valuable to arrest EF and (possibly) forgo a night kill just to avoid having to fake said work, means we likely had it set up as ideally as possible.

[jeheinz72]

Hence

Vote Autumn

[The Jackal]

I'll work on organization for now, but I can switch if Schmidty shows up and makes it different.

WORK ORGANIZATION

[RendeR]

Oh and as for the length of my break, this is my first game since sometime last fall.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Yes it was you. And while I know your general tactic is to interrogate someone over and over hoping to catch them in a lie (one you've attempted on me before in past games), I think this was a bit over-the-top there my man.

I think I know the game you're talking about. Anyway, if it's any consolation, I used the same tactic with RendeR last night. I don't think either of these 'interrogations' were hoping to catch one of them in a lie, but it was to get a better handle on their motivations. I was pretty sure that neither of them would have actually switched if they had showed up before the mission deadline, so I was just trying to get a handle on why they said that.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I think I know the game you're talking about. Anyway, if it's any consolation, I used the same tactic with RendeR last night. I don't think either of these 'interrogations' were hoping to catch one of them in a lie, but it was to get a better handle on their motivations. I was pretty sure that neither of them would have actually switched if they had showed up before the mission deadline, so I was just trying to get a handle on why they said that.

And I understand that...to an extent.

It just seemed that in doing so you've taken a somewhat minor point in the giant scale of things and made it the talk-of-the-day.

I'd debate that said point didn't deserve to be anywhere near the forefront.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I really think it's a big case of MMQB to go back and blame all the mission-goers after the fact. In hindsight, was their action ideal? Probably not.

But facts are we missed the camp because they arrested EF, not because we were short people. If we had missed the camp because of faked work, then honestly I wouldn't have been all that sad as we'd at least have a list of candidates to work from for today.

Obviously, given the fact that the wolves likely deemed it more valuable to arrest EF and (possibly) forgo a night kill just to avoid having to fake said work, means we likely had it set up as ideally as possible.

I agree. I guess this is the point I was trying to make with my 'interrogations' -- a point which I probably lost somewhere along the line.

[The Jackal]

Let me know if I missed a vote in my page scanning.

PB 1 (EF 914)
Poli 1 (Pass 991)
Pass 1 (Poli 998)
Autumn 1 (heinz 1063)

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I really think it's a big case of MMQB to go back and blame all the mission-goers after the fact. In hindsight, was their action ideal? Probably not.

But facts are we missed the camp because they arrested EF, not because we were short people. If we had missed the camp because of faked work, then honestly I wouldn't have been all that sad as we'd at least have a list of candidates to work from for today.

Obviously, given the fact that the wolves likely deemed it more valuable to arrest EF and (possibly) forgo a night kill just to avoid having to fake said work, means we likely had it set up as ideally as possible.

The reason I'm focusing on the mission people is not because we failed, but because it was in the wolves' best interest to have at least two people go on the mission. It's the only angle I've found so far to work on.

I agree that it may mean nothing. They may have simply waited and taken advantage of the fact that some went on the mission. With the arrest they had some flexibility as they could arrest without the danger of faking.

I've stated often that I'd like to hear other reasons to suspect someone. I haven't really heard anything. What reason do you have to vote for me? Simply because I'm talking a lot?

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Let me know if I missed a vote in my page scanning.

PB 1 (EF 914)
Poli 1 (Pass 991)
Pass 1 (Poli 998)
Autumn 1 (heinz 1063)

That's what I have.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Danny's play has struck me a little oddly this game, I'm gonna go back and review what he's been saying.

Upon further review I don't have anything to go on with him now.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

And I understand that...to an extent.

It just seemed that in doing so you've taken a somewhat minor point in the giant scale of things and made it the talk-of-the-day.

I'd debate that said point didn't deserve to be anywhere near the forefront.

I can understand that -- I'm in the thread more than most, so the stuff I say can get that feel, especially if someone is around to go back-and-forth with me on it. I think a lot of it has to do with who I was talking to in this case -- I asked RendeR the same questions last night, and was satisfied pretty quickly.

So...what should be near the forefront? I don't think it's the camps, because everyone will just put their work in where needed, and we'll be done (unless there's something else you think we can arrange there?). Maybe your vote for Autumn? You said "Hence...vote Autumn" but I don't really see how that follows from what you said in the previous post.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Autumn

The reason I'm focusing on the mission people is not because we failed, but because it was in the wolves' best interest to have at least two people go on the mission. It's the only angle I've found so far to work on.

I agree that it may mean nothing. They may have simply waited and taken advantage of the fact that some went on the mission. With the arrest they had some flexibility as they could arrest without the danger of faking.

I've stated often that I'd like to hear other reasons to suspect someone. I haven't really heard anything. What reason do you have to vote for me? Simply because I'm talking a lot?

Can you give me a quick-and-dirty recap of why you think the bolded is the case?

Because frankly, I could make a pretty plausible case that 0 wolves went on the mission yesterday, given the course of the day's events.



My vote for you is because

A) Yes, you're talking a lot. I've always been of the ilk that there is a vocal wolf in play early in games.

B) You seem pretty intent on focusing the discussion to that set of 5 people while I could certainly see a case where that is a wolf looking to aim people towards a subset of villagers only to come back with the ol "look like we picked the wrong one!" after the fact.

I mean PB goes on the mission, is told not to, obliges, and this is his fault? Ditto Henry.

While I'll stop far short of saying they are for sure villagers of course, it seems to me they were pretty obliging in aiming to do what's best for the village regardless of their potentially erroneous initial read on the plan for the day.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Lets take your points one at a time:

1) I in no way encouraged, cajoled or suggested that anyone ELSE go. My only statement at any time (IIRC) was that the ONLY people that should go are the searcher skill people because we're BETTER at searching than anyone else.

2) How does my post relate in any way to a wolf? This is just gibberish, makes no sense at all.

3) Again this is you putting words in my mouth, I did not encourage any line of thinking, period. You're twisting my words to fit your suspicions, not basing it on any facts or reality here.

4) I assume you're talking about yourself here, you're making a number of misleading statements in this post. First the fact that it was already clear we would have trouble making the camp, it was NOT clear at the time I joined the mission, in fact based on our numbers it seemed very clear TO ME that we'd make it just fine. I couldn't know they could lock up one of our primary workers after the fact any more than you or anyone else.

You keep repeating the "throw suspicion on a villager" line, which is a very easy way to build sympathy and push people away from considering you at all. As of right now you are no more cleared or trusted than anyone, myself included. The more you play this card the more I actually suspect you.

I'm also bothered by your wording about "making it seem unpatriotic to not go on the mission" I never suggested any such thing. I stated, quite simply that IMO we should never ignore the missions completely. I stand by that, but given a real and certain knowledge that we will fail a camp unless we ignore the mission I would certainly pass up the mission to save the camp. Yesterday that was NOT the case, no matter how loudly you trumpet that you knew it would fail and push blame at the mission-goers. Add to this the fact that my mission was in fact successful and has brought us an item that will help us with a future camp and you really seem to be going out of your way to paint me as bad here.

Right now besides PB, you're my #1 target for vote tonight. My reasons being noted above, you're using very flimsy reasoning and twisting the statements made to fit your suspicion.

some Lathuming going on here.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I can understand that -- I'm in the thread more than most, so the stuff I say can get that feel, especially if someone is around to go back-and-forth with me on it. I think a lot of it has to do with who I was talking to in this case -- I asked RendeR the same questions last night, and was satisfied pretty quickly.

So...what should be near the forefront? I don't think it's the camps, because everyone will just put their work in where needed, and we'll be done (unless there's something else you think we can arrange there?). Maybe your vote for Autumn? You said "Hence...vote Autumn" but I don't really see how that follows from what you said in the previous post.

You can thank me for taking your spot under the Pass's bright light later Poli.

Sure, I just posted why I voted for Autumn. It was down to him or you. I chose him over you b/c I'm more familiar with your gameplay and I've seen you do this stuff as a villager before too. Plus he actually posted that he's considering a list of 5 people based on a presumption that I don't necessarily agree with.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Can you give me a quick-and-dirty recap of why you think the bolded is the case?

Because frankly, I could make a pretty plausible case that 0 wolves went on the mission yesterday, given the course of the day's events.

My vote for you is because

A) Yes, you're talking a lot. I've always been of the ilk that there is a vocal wolf in play early in games.

B) You seem pretty intent on focusing the discussion to that set of 5 people while I could certainly see a case where that is a wolf looking to aim people towards a subset of villagers only to come back with the ol "look like we picked the wrong one!" after the fact.

I mean PB goes on the mission, is told not to, obliges, and this is his fault? Ditto Henry.

While I'll stop far short of saying they are for sure villagers of course, it seems to me they were pretty obliging in aiming to do what's best for the village regardless of their potentially erroneous initial read on the plan for the day.

Very quick and dirty: With two people on the mission, we were left vulnerable to one speicalist faking or being arrested in any one of the three fields. The more people on the mission, the easier it was for the wolves to sabotage, or not even have to if we sent too many.

The only reason I'm focusing on the mission people is that several of them seemed reluctant to shift off despite our worries that we would not have the numbers (remember we were not sure if Schmidty was an organizer until very, very late). There was a good chance that we would not even be able to cover the basic jobs right up until mission deadline and yet at one point we had four people on the mission and either not wanting to shift off, or not available. Thst was a very bad situation.

I included PurdueBrad just because someone brought him up this morning as a suspect. I would rank him last out of those five. I've just included everyone for benefit of analysis. I'm trying to offer something for the village to discuss. And of course as usual that makes me a target.

I'll say again I'M VERY HAPPY TO DISCUSS OTHER SUSPECTS IF SOMEONE WANTS TO CONTRIBUTE SOME. If I was a wolf I wouldn't be bothering doing all this discussion, since there is very little other discussion going on anyway. You can vote for me if you want, but I'm going to keep trying to find someone to vote for. I haven't found a target myself. I'm just digging.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I mean PB goes on the mission, is told not to, obliges, and this is his fault? Ditto Henry.

Oh, and I don't know who Henry is. TheNorm?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RendeR

remember also that on day 1 the MISSION guaranteed victory in the camp, part of my belief in the missions is the fact that this can happen again. If one of us had recovered an item that guaranteed victory in the camps AGAIN, we wouldn't be being bitched about, no?

.

I am still catching up but IMO this is the kind of statement a wolf would make to justify going on the mission.

[Autumn]

Oh, also I forgot to say that it seems unlikely the wolves would want to pass up a chance to go get an item. They would presumably have done their best to get at least one wolf on the mission if they could without raising suspicion.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Lathum

some Lathuming going on here.

Since I've been away this reference is lost on me.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I am still catching up but IMO this is the kind of statement a wolf would make to justify going on the mission.

That's an interesting quote, Lathum -- I don't remember that at all. Since when did the mission guarantee victory in the camps? I thought that it was all the work we put in.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I am still catching up but IMO this is the kind of statement a wolf would make to justify going on the mission.

I don't need any justification beyond the fact that I was a searcher by skill which meant I would have better success than others. Which I stated right from the get go.

Trying to throw more suspicion my way? Why?

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

That's an interesting quote, Lathum -- I don't remember that at all. Since when did the mission guarantee victory in the camps? I thought that it was all the work we put in.

From one of Abe's posts after the day 1 mission, the success in the camp had been guarenteed based on the success of the mission earlier in the day. Perhaps I'm misquoting it but thats the gist I got from it.

[RendeR]

And I wasn't saying it was a given that it would happen again, I simply said if it could happen once it COULD happen again, hence we could NOT ignore the mission.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Oh, and I don't know who Henry is. TheNorm?

Yeah, not sure what I was thinkin there.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Very quick and dirty: With two people on the mission, we were left vulnerable to one speicalist faking or being arrested in any one of the three fields. The more people on the mission, the easier it was for the wolves to sabotage, or not even have to if we sent too many.

The only reason I'm focusing on the mission people is that several of them seemed reluctant to shift off despite our worries that we would not have the numbers (remember we were not sure if Schmidty was an organizer until very, very late). There was a good chance that we would not even be able to cover the basic jobs right up until mission deadline and yet at one point we had four people on the mission and either not wanting to shift off, or not available. Thst was a very bad situation.

I included PurdueBrad just because someone brought him up this morning as a suspect. I would rank him last out of those five. I've just included everyone for benefit of analysis. I'm trying to offer something for the village to discuss. And of course as usual that makes me a target.

I'll say again I'M VERY HAPPY TO DISCUSS OTHER SUSPECTS IF SOMEONE WANTS TO CONTRIBUTE SOME. If I was a wolf I wouldn't be bothering doing all this discussion, since there is very little other discussion going on anyway. You can vote for me if you want, but I'm going to keep trying to find someone to vote for. I haven't found a target myself. I'm just digging.

Fair enough. I'm not changing, but may later if I get a better idea.

I'd contend though that the wolf-thought-process you've put forth is accurate, we'll win the game. That would seem like a pretty bad plan on their part frankly.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Not for today, success was automatic and you didn't end up doing the work

Ah, here's the post I think RendeR was talking about. I think when I read this, I was all fist-pumping about how I was right that Peter Urban would become an ally, and I thought that's what Abe was talking about -- "success" in making him an ally. I'm not sure what it changes about how I look at the day yesterday, but I'll have to think on it.

Hmm, though -- is that part of why people have been on me as being too aggressively camp-focused?

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I really think it's a big case of MMQB to go back and blame all the mission-goers after the fact. In hindsight, was their action ideal? Probably not.

But facts are we missed the camp because they arrested EF, not because we were short people. If we had missed the camp because of faked work, then honestly I wouldn't have been all that sad as we'd at least have a list of candidates to work from for today.

Obviously, given the fact that the wolves likely deemed it more valuable to arrest EF and (possibly) forgo a night kill just to avoid having to fake said work, means we likely had it set up as ideally as possible.

I like this reasoning!

[Passacaglia]

Heinz, can you help me out? I have this temptation to ask RendeR why he said he would have switched off the mission, if he felt that "part of my belief in the missions is the fact that this can happen again"

[jeheinz72]

I'm not saying you were aggessive because of your focus on the camp (I'm all-in on knocking out camps as well) but moreso on the Poli exchange

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Heinz, can you help me out? I have this temptation to ask RendeR why he said he would have switched off the mission, if he felt that "part of my belief in the missions is the fact that this can happen again"

How do I help in this case?

You want me to ask him so you don't look interrogative again?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Failing with nothing !> Failing with something

If we knew it was the villagers who had something, I'd say sure. But we don't. I'd rather not have had the extra uncertainty in the game.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

How do I help in this case?

You want me to ask him so you don't look interrogative again?

Heh, I dunno -- I was thinking you would help convince me not to worry about it.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Danny

I just read the mission and daily goal. I have a possibility to throw out today. What if all 20 of us go on the mission? Yeah I know this screws us for the day in converting the camps, but just assuming everyone got an item (Abe only said most will) that would mean anywhere from 14-16 villagers with items and 3-5 wolves with items.

If it is decided this a bad idea, I will be working in food distribution since it is my specialty even though I do want an item!

Here's something to bring to the forefront. This is a post by Danny early yesterday morning. I was hoping to hear from him first, but it's getting late in my work day, so we might as well start discussing it now. If we had taken his advice back then, we'd be in a lot better shape than we are now. Thoughts?

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Here's something to bring to the forefront. This is a post by Danny early yesterday morning. I was hoping to hear from him first, but it's getting late in my work day, so we might as well start discussing it now. If we had taken his advice back then, we'd be in a lot better shape than we are now. Thoughts?

I don't know if anyone was really on board with the idea that we should completely ignore the camp. We don't know how many if any wolves went on the searching mission, if anything having everyone go might've increased the chance for the wolves to get something, plus completely wrecked the camp. With the storylines and things that Abe is including, especially characters like Urban, I don't think abandoning camps is a good idea. It's kind of why I was suspicious of Danny, but I think he was just floating a plan.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Heinz, can you help me out? I have this temptation to ask RendeR why he said he would have switched off the mission, if he felt that "part of my belief in the missions is the fact that this can happen again"

Please realize Pass, 90% of everything I said was based on hindsight. If I knew for a fact that prior to the mission we would need every single person to make the camp succeed I would then have forgone the mission in lieu of the camp.

However as things happened I did not know that or believe it at the time, and in hindsight we have seen that even HAD we all worked on the camp we most likely would have failed anyway. SO I stand by my decision to search yesterday as it turned up something useful so the day wasn't a complete and total write off.

[The Jackal]

dola, i find it very hard to believe everyone would have gotten an item

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Here's something to bring to the forefront. This is a post by Danny early yesterday morning. I was hoping to hear from him first, but it's getting late in my work day, so we might as well start discussing it now. If we had taken his advice back then, we'd be in a lot better shape than we are now. Thoughts?

My thought is, advocating his idea sounds great now that we failed the camp.

Had we won the camp, some people probably would be voting for Danny for such a silly idea as to forgo trying for it at all.

I'm not knocking his idea, but really, it looks a lot better now given yesterday's events which were caused by something we had no idea was even possible.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

My thought is, advocating his idea sounds great now that we failed the camp.

Had we won the camp, some people probably would be voting for Danny for such a silly idea as to forgo trying for it at all.

I'm not knocking his idea, but really, it looks a lot better now given yesterday's events which were caused by something we had no idea was even possible.

I have to agree with this line of thought.