The Trump Presidency – 2016

[Atocep]

You can always assume that if Trump is accusing someone else of doing it then he's tried to do it himself.

Donald Trump appears to have committed felony voter fraud by registering under the wrong address in Florida.

and I know this initially looks like something that's incredibly nit-picky and no big deal but Florida has actually cracked down hard on others for doing the exact same thing:

Under Florida law, providing false information on a voter registration form is a third-degree felony, punishable by five years in prison and a $5,000 fine. As the Washington Post notes, the state has previously targeted individuals for registering under the wrong address. In 2018, Deltona City Manager Jane Shang faced charges for listing City Hall as her residence to avoid disclosure of her home address. She ultimately avoided prison through a deferred prosecution agreement that included a hefty fine and community service. In 1993, a restaurateur was charged with voter fraud and jailed for registering under the wrong address.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

I doubt any of them will vote for Biden, but I could easily see more conservatives refusing to vote for Trump.

Yeah, while I don't see any situation that causes much if any of Trump's base turning away from him to vote for somebody else I do think it's possible that vocal criticism from conservative corners could cause significant numbers of marginal Trump supporters get exhausted enough to simply not vote.

[Brian Swartz]

A major difference between this cycle and 2016 by the way that doesn't get enough play is the historically very high amount of late-breaking undecided vote last time around. I believe the undecided vote a month before the '16 election was nearly double what is now (less than 8%). The on-the-fence voters breaking for Trump can't save him when there aren't nearly as many of them.

[JPhillips]

And I'm pretty sure that generally undecideds break for the challenger rather than the incumbent.

[JPhillips]

This seems both really good and really bad. Good that Milley states these things, but bad that he felt the need to.

[thesloppy]

Saw that the sportsbooks have actually flipped over to favoring Biden (or any Dem nominee) for the first time FWIW.

[JPhillips]

These letters combined with the Esper remarks this morning really make me wonder what Trump has been saying and why the DoD is so nervous.

[JPhillips]

And this from the Commandant of the Marine Corps.

ARLINGTON, Va. --
Marines and Sailors, last summer, in my planning guidance, I stated there is no place in our Corps for racists – whether their intolerance and prejudice be direct or indirect, intentional or unintentional. As a continuation of that declaration, in April, I addressed the removal of the Confederate battle flag from our bases, and explained my views behind that decision. I wrote, “Anything that divides us, anything that threatens team cohesion, must be addressed head-on.”

Current events are a stark reminder that it is not enough for us to remove symbols that cause division – rather, we also must strive to eliminate division itself. The trust Marines place in one another on a daily basis demands this. Only as a unified force, free from discrimination, racial inequality, and prejudice can we fully demonstrate our core values, and serve as the elite warfighting organization America requires and expects us to be.

To this end, Sergeant Major Black and I encourage commanders and leaders at all levels to have a conversation with their Marines and Sailors, and ask that in doing so, all actively listen. By listening, we learn, by learning, we change. The path to a more just and equal Marine Corps begins with these conversations.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

This seems both really good and really bad. Good that Milley states these things, but bad that he felt the need to.

He has a base as well. That base would want to hear his official position on the military topic of the day.

[Atocep]

We also received emails from the Secretary of the Army and Army Chief of staff today that were along the same lines.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

These letters combined with the Esper remarks this morning really make me wonder what Trump has been saying and why the DoD is so nervous.

Trump reportedly threw out the idea of putting tanks in the streets.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

These letters combined with the Esper remarks this morning really make me wonder what Trump has been saying and why the DoD is so nervous.

Are you saying you think trump is advocating for more force? Shootings? Drone strikes? etc...?

[Atocep]

Tom Cotton is really trying to position himself as the torch bearer for Trump 2024.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Are you saying you think trump is advocating for more force? Shootings? Drone strikes? etc...?

I have no idea, but something provoked the Sec of Defense, the CJSC, the ranking officer of the National Guard, the Commandant of the Marines, and Mattis to all issue unprecedented statements about the President and the armed forces respecting the ideas and laws of the U.S.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I have no idea, but something provoked the Sec of Defense, the CJSC, the ranking officer of the National Guard, the Commandant of the Marines, and Mattis to all issue unprecedented statements about the President and the armed forces respecting the ideas and laws of the U.S.

My neighbor’s comment about Mattis and strategy wasn’t mere spitballing about the guy. He was a senior officer in the Corps, serving under Mattis’s command. After posting that, I walked the dog and ran into him. We talked for 20-30 minutes on the street. At one point I made a comment about how Trump was going to go ballistic. My friend responded with “oh, I’m certain Mattis knew exactly what he was doing with regard to that as well. Trump can’t play 4D chess, but Mattis can. He has a plan.”

[thesloppy]

At some point that Bolton book will also get cleared and added to the chorus....may have shot themselves in the foot by postponing that.

[tarcone]

This has to be Trumps worst nightmare. 2 emergencies to test his leadership. And he is failing miserably. He thinks tweets and photo ops will pull him through. Weak leadership is a bad deal at this point.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

It’s not so much his base as the conservatives on the margin. I was third-party all the way in 2016, but a significant number of my close long-time friends were Trump nose-holders who still can’t stand Trump, but may vote for him. Hearing a respected conservative general publish some of the thoughts that they already had will no doubt move the needle a bit more. I doubt any of them will vote for Biden, but I could easily see more conservatives refusing to vote for Trump.

Just judging by a quick trip through some of the Conservative spots on reddit this really seems to have had a more of an impact that I expected. Not necessarily a tsunami or anything, but it definitely has some conservatives reevaluating Trump.

None seem to be ready to vote for Biden, but they're wishing there was some republican option other than Trump.

[Thomkal]

Anderson Cooper: “Given his bone spurs, it must have been very painful to have been rushed down to his bunker.”

[Atocep]

Trump takes credit for the Mad Dog nickname.

Probably the only thing Barack Obama & I have in common is that we both had the honor of firing Jim Mattis, the world’s most overrated General. I asked for his letter of resignation, & felt great about it. His nickname was “Chaos”, which I didn’t like, & changed to “Mad Dog”...

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 4, 2020

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Trump takes credit for the Mad Dog nickname.

....and Mattis hated it.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I am definitely not counting my chickens yet, but I am hopeful these polls are right. I am hoping for a Godzilla-breathes-fire-down-Trump's-throat type of victory.

Him turning full fascist seems to be the response to internal polls. He has to know he is in deep trouble and we are going to see some scary stuff as he continues to head toward a large defeat.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I believe things like this do chip away at his base. I'd be surprised if it noticeably moved the needle, but every little bit helps and this is just one more thing that makes it more difficult to defend his actions. A tipping point for Trump would potentially be if George W were to endorse Biden. At the very least it'd be interesting to see how the current GOP establishment would try to reconcile it.

I don't think his base is going anywhere. Theh have lifted him up to cult status. They never cared about the military either.

What this may do is motivate independents and people in the suburbs. His base hasn't moved and he is pushing hard right to appease their authoritarian leanings.

[Flasch186]

Timing-wise this all may be happening too early considering how far November is. If the election were Tuesday he would lose in a landslide.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

Timing-wise this all may be happening too early considering how far November is. If the election were Tuesday he would lose in a landslide.

And, in the back of my mind (in a small part but it's still there and also at odds with my thought of how often Trump can/will play a chess vs checkers), I've wondered if this is a dress rehearsal for November

SI

[tarcone]

November is a long ways away. There could be a suspension of the election due to another outbreak of something.

Do not put it past Trump to create something that allows him to stay in power.

[kingfc22]

Bunker boy is now building his wall

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

Timing-wise this all may be happening too early considering how far November is. If the election were Tuesday he would lose in a landslide.

I agree with this and the economy is rebounding so that's always a key factor. And there could always be a Hillary-like Oct surprise.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by tarcone

November is a long ways away. There could be a suspension of the election due to another outbreak of something.

Do not put it past Trump to create something that allows him to stay in power.

It would not shock me at all, but how does the circumvent the law requiring a new President to be in place on January 21st of next year. I don't see any path to getting around that and the absolute chaos it would cause even trying.

I will have to look for the exact specifics, but there is a plan of succession in place to transfer power if there is an issue with having the election.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Edward64

and the economy is rebounding so that's always a key factor.

The stock markets are not the economy. GDP is still shrinking and unemployment numbers are still on the meteoric rise.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by cartman

The stock markets are not the economy. GDP is still shrinking and unemployment numbers are still on the meteoric rise.

You are right.

I do think there is a good chance that economy will be noticeably rebounding as we get closer to Nov but maybe not enough (and maybe a second shock with a second wave).

[Kodos]

The stock market is being propped up by the Fed.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Edward64

You are right.

I do think there is a good chance that economy will be noticeably rebounding as we get closer to Nov but maybe not enough (and maybe a second shock with a second wave).

Sincere question: Based on what?

My thoughts are that we are only doing 'this well' because we just put $3.2-trillion into the economy AND a lot of folks/businesses have not paid their first sets of quarterly taxes in 2020 (more income available to spend now, less later/less collected by governments).

We have close to 20% unemployment, very low consumer confidence, lots of questions about imports/exports (long term supply chain), and the continued unease about the pandemic. I don't see a reason to believe the economy is going to noticeably rebound for quite some time. I feel reallly strongly that we are looking more at years than months before we get back to a decent level of unemployment and consumer confidence.

[JPhillips]

In a month, state and local governments will start making cuts. In two months the enhanced unemployment benefits go away. If things aren't substantially better very quickly, there will be a lot of pain heading into the fall.

[albionmoonlight]

One would also have to think that the escalation of partisan tension related to the protests have made the chances of Congress passing another major relief package less likely.

[JPhillips]

“Perhaps we're getting to the point where we can be more honest with the concerns that we might hold internally, and have the courage of our own convictions to speak up,” Murkowski tells us.

— Andrew Desiderio (@AndrewDesiderio) June 4, 2020

Profiles in Courage, this is not.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

One would also have to think that the escalation of partisan tension related to the protests have made the chances of Congress passing another major relief package less likely.

Yeah, and it doesn't help that most of the legislature isn't in D.C.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Profiles in Courage, this is not.

Murkowski can rightly fuck off. I think we've already had enough of her 'brave leadership' that we can handle.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Bunker boy is now building his wall

I think everyone should call him Bunker Boy. Bunker Boy and Moscow Mitch.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Sincere question: Based on what?

My thoughts are that we are only doing 'this well' because we just put $3.2-trillion into the economy AND a lot of folks/businesses have not paid their first sets of quarterly taxes in 2020 (more income available to spend now, less later/less collected by governments).

We have close to 20% unemployment, very low consumer confidence, lots of questions about imports/exports (long term supply chain), and the continued unease about the pandemic. I don't see a reason to believe the economy is going to noticeably rebound for quite some time. I feel reallly strongly that we are looking more at years than months before we get back to a decent level of unemployment and consumer confidence.

Regarding my comment on "good chance that economy will be noticeably rebounding as we get closer to Nov", the stock market is a leading indicator of the economy.

It's not the only one, may not be the most important one, but it is one. However, arguably it is in an "irrational exuberance" state right now.

With that said, I don't think you can toss away stock market progress as a "valid" leading indicator during these times. I would assume (and hope) the stock market analysts and Fund managers are doing their due diligence in talking with CEOs, talking with companies' supply chain folks, reading the Fed etc. in addition to watching unemployment, consumer confidence, risk of China, risk of second wave etc.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

One would also have to think that the escalation of partisan tension related to the protests have made the chances of Congress passing another major relief package less likely.

It's election year. I got to believe the chance is high there will be one more relief package.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I think everyone should call him Bunker Boy. Bunker Boy and Moscow Mitch.

Much better than President Tweety but IMO not quite right yet.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

It would not shock me at all, but how does the circumvent the law requiring a new President to be in place on January 21st of next year. I don't see any path to getting around that and the absolute chaos it would cause even trying.

I will have to look for the exact specifics, but there is a plan of succession in place to transfer power if there is an issue with having the election.

If the election were suspended, then Pelosi is no longer Speaker because her term ends on January 3rd. However, the President Pro Tempore is Chuck Grassley and he'll only be 2 years into a 6 year term, so he'd be President on January 21.

[Brian Swartz]

Perhaps draw some inspiration from this?

Vote Him Away (The Liar Tweets Tonight) - YouTube

[Flasch186]

I said it before, the Murkowski, Susan Collins ilk are so full of shit its boggling. They feign concern but do nothing rinse and repeat.

Side bar... I've read that the GOP, through calculations will determine whether or not they feel like they'll lose bigly in November within the next few months. If they come to that conclusion they will tack to the fiscal tightening side of their faux-platform and squeeze hard on the economy so that the next Democratic president resides over a terrible recession/depression so that they can then blame them for the economy and hope that it will be a one term president.

Always a con.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Much better than President Tweety but IMO not quite right yet.

No, Bunker Boy is perfect because it highlights Trump's cowardly nature and he will be driven insane because he doesn't want people to know that he is in fact a total coward.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

I said it before, the Murkowski, Susan Collins ilk are so full of shit its boggling. They feign concern but do nothing rinse and repeat.

Side bar... I've read that the GOP, through calculations will determine whether or not they feel like they'll lose bigly in November within the next few months. If they come to that conclusion they will tack to the fiscal tightening side of their faux-platform and squeeze hard on the economy so that the next Democratic president resides over a terrible recession/depression so that they can then blame them for the economy and hope that it will be a one term president.

Always a con.

That seems like a very obvious play.

And the President is so stupid that he won't even realize what they are doing to him.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Murkowski can rightly fuck off. I think we've already had enough of her 'brave leadership' that we can handle.

Kind of felt the same about what Mattis said. I mean it's good he said it but he also gave the President credibility when he was in his role. Same long jackoff motion reading these people speak up now.

Originally Posted by BYU 14

It would not shock me at all, but how does the circumvent the law requiring a new President to be in place on January 21st of next year. I don't see any path to getting around that and the absolute chaos it would cause even trying.

I will have to look for the exact specifics, but there is a plan of succession in place to transfer power if there is an issue with having the election.

Pretty sure if an election was cancelled they aren't going to give a shit about the line of succession.

[albionmoonlight]

I realize that by November, we'll be 6 crises past where we are now so none of this will matter.

But for a President so image obsessed, it is kind of crazy that one of the things that's really hurting him is that fact that he had no idea how people hold books, so that Bible video looks so stupid.

Like, if he had just spent any time in his life reading books, he would have learned how to hold them just through repetition.

[stevew]

I assume they’ll do the absolute minimum relief package(if any) that keeps the Senate in GOP control. And then starve the economy so that they can attempt to destroy the Biden presidency and regain the house.