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Old 11-11-2009, 01:55 PM   #251
hoopsguy
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Join Date: Oct 2000
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KWhit, for what it is worth I was not wild about you getting a bunch of votes yesterday because that almost always seems to happen with the people that I vote for on Day 1. And most of the time they do end up being villagers.

But on Day 2 I'm coming back around trying to make sense of Day 1. For better or worse (I have no idea at this point) you were in the run-off and represent an opportunity to take meaning from the vote yesterday. There are really two questions I have from Day/Night 1:
1.) Did we have a wolf in our two person runoff?
2.) Why did the wolves kill RendeR N1?

Both of those questions come back around to you. The first because you were the second man in the runoff, and the second because I've come up with a scenario (willing to listen to better ones from anyone else, but have not seen one yet) where I think it suggests you are a wolf.
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Old 11-11-2009, 01:57 PM   #252
KWhit
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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
Anyway, I'm certainly willing to listen to other interpretations of the voting logic from yesterday. KWhit, if you know that you are a villager and it was villager/villager all along then what are your takeaways from yesterday?

I have no idea. It was a day one vote, which is tough to read anyway. And since it was villager vs villager (which I know and you all don't, of course), the wolves weren't under any pressure at all (which was evident since there was virtually NO vote switching at all - even when the vote was in doubt late last night).
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Old 11-11-2009, 02:09 PM   #253
KWhit
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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
KWhit, for what it is worth I was not wild about you getting a bunch of votes yesterday because that almost always seems to happen with the people that I vote for on Day 1. And most of the time they do end up being villagers.

But on Day 2 I'm coming back around trying to make sense of Day 1. For better or worse (I have no idea at this point) you were in the run-off and represent an opportunity to take meaning from the vote yesterday. There are really two questions I have from Day/Night 1:
1.) Did we have a wolf in our two person runoff?
2.) Why did the wolves kill RendeR N1?

Both of those questions come back around to you. The first because you were the second man in the runoff, and the second because I've come up with a scenario (willing to listen to better ones from anyone else, but have not seen one yet) where I think it suggests you are a wolf.

1) A wolf in the runoff would have almost assuredly led to more activity throughout the day. I was near the vote lead all day and was out of the thread for much of the afternoon until about 8:15 last night. It's not like I was around and directing the wolves to hold off on saving me through PMs. If I was a wolf, they would have moved to save me well before I got back into the thread.

2) Your scenario regarding what the wolves may have picked up on from RendeR aren't logical, as I have pointed out. It makes more sense to think that I am NOT a wolf based on your quoted posts. You thought it possible that they thought RendeR was the convert/cultist based on him voting me and saying it was a "good vote." If the wolves thought he was the cultist because he had some inside information on who the wolves were, it would make sense that he were placing his vote on a NON-WOLF which the wolves would know was the case.

To reiterate the crux of my argument - I really doubt that a cultist would be tying the vote up late between a wolf and a villager, and your argument that the wolves thought "He is voting to lynch a wolf late in the day - he must be on our side" doesn't make any sense at all.
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Old 11-11-2009, 02:22 PM   #254
hoopsguy
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If the cultist wants to be converted, they are motivated to try and get the attention of the wolves. Putting a vote on a wolf makes a lot of sense as a mechanism to do this.

I'm having a hard time deciding how vigorously to defend this premise, since it is based on how I think the wolves would have interpreted posts. I'm not privy to their thought process so it is hard for me to 100% assume how they would have viewed posts/actions yesterday.

But I still have not heard anyone with any other ideas on why RendeR might have been the N1 kill. I'm certainly not just asking KWhit to tackle that question. I think this is one of the very few data points we have in the game so it is at least worth consideration by the villagers (wolves know why they did it), even if they are not posting their thoughts in the thread just yet.
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Old 11-11-2009, 02:29 PM   #255
hoopsguy
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Originally Posted by RendeR View Post
Checking in, I think we have a whole lot of lying scheming........really loyal officers of the empire!!


*looks around scathingly at everyone*

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Originally Posted by RendeR View Post
Duh.

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Originally Posted by RendeR View Post
You just missed that part of the rules, its on page one =)

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Originally Posted by RendeR View Post
Bleh.

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Originally Posted by RendeR View Post
Lets see what happens in a tie:

Vote KHWIT

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Originally Posted by RendeR View Post
I feel like someone drugged me after dinner. Sorry I haven't been on but I passed out on the couch for no good reason.

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Originally Posted by RendeR View Post
No the vote is a good one at this point. I want to see shenanigans at deadline. if we have two people tied, something is going to happen.

This is the entirety of RendeR's Day 1 posts. There seemed to be two periods of activity - noon (EST) and twenty minutes before deadline. Posted here to help anyone who is looking for reasons why RendeR was the night kill.
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Old 11-11-2009, 02:42 PM   #256
KWhit
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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
If the cultist wants to be converted, they are motivated to try and get the attention of the wolves. Putting a vote on a wolf makes a lot of sense as a mechanism to do this.

Render voted for me at 8:40pm. His vote tied me with another villager just 20 minutes before deadline. I could have easily been lynched last night, and Render almost helped make that happen. That is not the behavior of a cultist trying to get the attention of someone he knows is a wolf.

In fact, if I were a wolf, he is the person at the top of the list that I would think would NOT be the cultist since he helped put me in serious jeopardy last night - at a point in time that was too late to move the vote without looking like an obvious save attempt.
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Old 11-11-2009, 02:48 PM   #257
J23
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I think you might be reading too much into the "vote is a good one", but then again, that's how all of these WW games seem to go. With the lack of movement day1, it's pretty hard to find much info
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Old 11-11-2009, 02:49 PM   #258
KWhit
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Originally Posted by J23 View Post
I think you might be reading too much into the "vote is a good one", but then again, that's how all of these WW games seem to go. With the lack of movement day1, it's pretty hard to find much info

I assume that statement was to Hoops?
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Old 11-11-2009, 03:08 PM   #259
Danny
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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
not that I needed it but by far further confirmation I am the coolest guy on the werewolf forum...

Me and KWhit, his wife was a model...

My wife is not a model, but she is hot
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Old 11-11-2009, 03:10 PM   #260
Danny
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Originally Posted by JAG View Post
I'm not saying this observation is right or wrong (I'm sure you know better than I), but it seems like every game I see conflicting information as far as what wolves like to do (wolves always put the second vote on a candidate, etc...) It seems like one can make a good argument for wolves doing anything voting-wise ("You voted for a wolf to gain trust!").

It sounds like you are saying voting records should simply be disregarded. Yes, there are exceptions to all probabilities, but I have found that wolves are more likely to do certain things. Obviously multiple days worth of votes gives us a better idea, but since we don't have that I find looking at early voters is a good place to start with based on the limited info we have.
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Old 11-11-2009, 03:11 PM   #261
hoopsguy
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At the risk of repeating an strategy that bombed in Schmidty's game, I would hope that the seer will soon take a look at KWhit so we can determine if there was something to take from the Day 1 votes.
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Old 11-11-2009, 03:14 PM   #262
Danny
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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
I agree with KWhit, Hoops' logic doesn't seem to make much sense.

I agree, I didn't really follow how his logic lead him to Kwhit having to be a wolf.
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Old 11-11-2009, 03:15 PM   #263
Danny
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Originally Posted by KWhit View Post
1) A wolf in the runoff would have almost assuredly led to more activity throughout the day. I was near the vote lead all day and was out of the thread for much of the afternoon until about 8:15 last night. It's not like I was around and directing the wolves to hold off on saving me through PMs. If I was a wolf, they would have moved to save me well before I got back into the thread.

2) Your scenario regarding what the wolves may have picked up on from RendeR aren't logical, as I have pointed out. It makes more sense to think that I am NOT a wolf based on your quoted posts. You thought it possible that they thought RendeR was the convert/cultist based on him voting me and saying it was a "good vote." If the wolves thought he was the cultist because he had some inside information on who the wolves were, it would make sense that he were placing his vote on a NON-WOLF which the wolves would know was the case.

To reiterate the crux of my argument - I really doubt that a cultist would be tying the vote up late between a wolf and a villager, and your argument that the wolves thought "He is voting to lynch a wolf late in the day - he must be on our side" doesn't make any sense at all.

I agree with your reasoning Kwhit and thus will not be voting you today.
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Old 11-11-2009, 03:16 PM   #264
The Jackal
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wow guys i'm so sorry i didn't vote, i thought i was going to be around but had to leave the house unexpectedly and didnt get back till now, my bad

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my vote was gonna be on NTN, as i had indicated, and it would've been no good anyways

quoted for DT
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Old 11-11-2009, 03:19 PM   #265
hoopsguy
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I agree, I didn't really follow how his logic lead him to Kwhit having to be a wolf.

This is not like the Transformers game where I'm gunning for someone I am 99% certain is a wolf. I'm just exploring what I think is the most likely avenue for any meaning from D1/N1.

If we had two villagers in a runoff and the wolf night kill was totally random then I'm chasing windmills here today. I fully acknowledge that. But I do believe there had to be some logic to the wolves taking out RendeR and I've offered up the best theory I can come up with to explain it.
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Old 11-11-2009, 03:23 PM   #266
Danny
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This is not like the Transformers game where I'm gunning for someone I am 99% certain is a wolf. I'm just exploring what I think is the most likely avenue for any meaning from D1/N1.

If we had two villagers in a runoff and the wolf night kill was totally random then I'm chasing windmills here today. I fully acknowledge that. But I do believe there had to be some logic to the wolves taking out RendeR and I've offered up the best theory I can come up with to explain it.

I just don't think they would have surmised that a person putting a crucial vote on a wolf that late would have to be the convert. An early vote before things heat up as a sign sure, but not a vote at that point. As a convert you never know if you're going to be converted, so it would be foolish to put a wolf at that kind of risk just to possibly send a signal. Because of that, if your thinking was right that they thought Render was the convert, I don't think that makes it more likely that Kwhit is a wolf.
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Old 11-11-2009, 03:28 PM   #267
Danny
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Just as a follow up, but if NTN shows up late there after Render's vote I think Kwhit is basically done. That's not a good play from a convert and I'd have a tough time believing the wolves thought the convert would have made a vote on a fellow wolf there.

Now saying all this, it does not mean Kwhit is not a wolf, but I don't think the logic you layed out makes it more likely he is.
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Old 11-11-2009, 03:29 PM   #268
Chief Rum
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Trivia Question coming up shortly.

Remember, the first to send me the correct answer by PM will get today's prize, the Agonizer.
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I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.
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Old 11-11-2009, 03:30 PM   #269
Danny
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Just to get a jump here, Who is James. T. Kirk
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Old 11-11-2009, 03:31 PM   #270
Chief Rum
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TRIVIA QUESTION

In how many of the 11 feature-length movies that have been released in the Star Trek series has Leonard Nimoy appeared as Spock?

First to PM me with the correct answer will receive today's prize.

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I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.
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Old 11-11-2009, 03:35 PM   #271
Danny
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Answer sent, probably wrong.
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Old 11-11-2009, 03:40 PM   #272
Danny
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Right now my vote is on J23, but the three people that have pinged me the most is Jag, Hoops and J23 so far.
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Old 11-11-2009, 03:45 PM   #273
hoopsguy
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Answer sent, probably wrong.

Answer sent, probably right.
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Old 11-11-2009, 03:45 PM   #274
Chief Rum
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TRIVIA ANSWER

The answer is 7.

Nimoy appeared in the first six features (The Motion Picture, Wrath of Khan, Search For Spock, The Voyage Home, The Final Frontier, Undiscovered Country) and also in the msot recent franchise restart earlier this year.

The answer was correctly given, and the Agonizer was awarded. It was then destroyed by the person in question, removing it from the game.

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Old 11-11-2009, 03:47 PM   #275
Danny
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So anyone want to reveal if they were the one who got it and destroyed it? And what it did that made them destroy it? Oh and I said 8
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Old 11-11-2009, 03:50 PM   #276
hoopsguy
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Without knowing what the Agonizer would have done in the WW world, I strongly doubt that I would have destroyed it. A quick look at the Wiki suggested that this was a disciplinary tool used in the mirror universe.

I would think that I would have used it, in the spirit of being an evil character in this game, unless it had a really poor risk/reward aspect for the villagers.

Also, my answer was right and was sent in a few minutes prior to my post on the board, so whoever got this was quick on the draw.
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Old 11-11-2009, 03:51 PM   #277
The Jackal
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I sent mine about two minutes after he posted it and was correct, but someone beat me to it.
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Old 11-11-2009, 04:00 PM   #278
hoopsguy
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Originally Posted by The Jackal View Post
I sent mine about two minutes after he posted it and was correct, but someone beat me to it.

At that speed someone probably would have needed to know the information, rather than do an IMDB search to find all 11 movies and then dig into the cast for each of them like I did. I'm not sure who that rules out, as I have not been recording who are the Star Trek geeks of the bunch.
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Old 11-11-2009, 04:02 PM   #279
Danny
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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
At that speed someone probably would have needed to know the information, rather than do an IMDB search to find all 11 movies and then dig into the cast for each of them like I did. I'm not sure who that rules out, as I have not been recording who are the Star Trek geeks of the bunch.

I didn't do that, and was pretty close in my answer. So I am sure someone could have done the same and been right.
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Old 11-11-2009, 04:12 PM   #280
hoopsguy
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Does anyone have the initial impression that it is a good thing that the Agonizer was destroyed?

I'm now looking at this as a potential third data point for analysis, along with the two I mentioned earlier (D1 votes, N1 kill).
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Old 11-11-2009, 04:18 PM   #281
The Jackal
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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
Does anyone have the initial impression that it is a good thing that the Agonizer was destroyed?

I'm now looking at this as a potential third data point for analysis, along with the two I mentioned earlier (D1 votes, N1 kill).

My initial feeling is that it was good this was destroyed. From the writeup from last night it sounds like it either grants a duke ability or lets you forcibly change a few people's votes. Wouldn't want that in the hands of a wolf.

Still, strange that it was destroyed so suddenly. Perhaps there were powers that were not hinted at, or, perhaps a wolf did get it and it was useful for the village. Hard to say.
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Old 11-11-2009, 04:22 PM   #282
PurdueBrad
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This is subject to change but I'm always surprised at people that wait so long to put their self-defense vote in. I know as a wolf I've done this so that it looks like I was forced into voting a villager. I'll start here and go back through Hoops' posts in a little bit.

vote KWhit
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Old 11-11-2009, 04:25 PM   #283
JAG
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Originally Posted by Danny View Post
It sounds like you are saying voting records should simply be disregarded. Yes, there are exceptions to all probabilities, but I have found that wolves are more likely to do certain things. Obviously multiple days worth of votes gives us a better idea, but since we don't have that I find looking at early voters is a good place to start with based on the limited info we have.

That's not at all what I was saying actually, although since you brought it up...in my limited WW experience I do think people hold them in an overly high regard than they should be. Maybe it's just because I've been a villager in a couple games recently (soccer, Nazi) where voting record did not help in finding the last wolf, or like the Scooby game where I was a villager with the worst voting record towards the end of the game and lynched for it. Wolves know how to be sneaky, especially most of the people here who are extremely experienced and know the same general wisdom everyone else knows.

Anyway, to get back from waxing philosophically, I don't see myself voting for hoops or KWhit because I feel they're both villagers. Despite what I said earlier, seeing that I have little else to go on at this point (believing we were v-v D1), I find myself drifting towards what Danny said regarding wolves wanting to set candidates. That being the case, let's look at the opening voting:

82 - Dubb votes JAG (1-0)
85 - Lathum votes Telle (1-1 JAG/Telle)
87 - PB votes Darth (1-1-1 JAG/Telle/Darth)
88 - Dubb unvotes JAG (1-1 Telle/Darth)
91 - Hoops votes KWhit (1-1-1 Telle/Darth/KWhit)
106 - Darth votes NTN (1-1-1-1 Telle/Darth/KWhit/NTN)
109 - Danny votes J23 (1-1-1-1-1 Telle/Darth/KWhit/NTN/J23)

So Dubb opens voting on me (though he takes it back), Lathum adds another candidate but in my experience it's not unusual for him to vote early either wolf or villager, PB votes Darth, Darth votes ntn, and (ironically) Danny introduces J23. Later we get this:

112 - J23 votes NTN (2-1-1-1-1 NTN over Telle/Darth/KWhit/J23)
117 - Lerri votes KWhit (2-2-1-1-1 NTN/KWhit over Telle/Darth/J23)
125 - Dubb votes NTN (3-2-1-1-1 NTN over KWhit over Telle/Darth/J23)
129 - DT votes KWhit (3-3-1-1-1 NTN/KWhit over Telle/Darth/J23)

Very quickly, we moved away from Darth / J23 / Telle as potential candidates. Maybe that's a coincidence, but if one of them is a wolf, one of the group that voted 2nd / 3rd on KWhit / ntn could be in cohoots with them.

Now that's a broad stroke of people admittedly, but it's better for me than blindly picking someone. Now I have to leave work, but I will probably aim for someone in that group after I give it some more thought.
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Old 11-11-2009, 04:48 PM   #284
Schmidty
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Originally Posted by Darth Vilus View Post
I'm not sure where Hoops is going with this but there's a reason why the wolves don't like him. I'll go with this for now since i'm at aloss and have to leave

VOTE KHWIT

This makes no sense.

Vote Darth
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Old 11-11-2009, 04:51 PM   #285
J23
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Busy w/ work today, so I missed the trivia. I'm guessing a wolf got it and destroyed it since they're the "good guys".
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Old 11-11-2009, 04:53 PM   #286
Danny
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I'm kind of surprised that if J23 was a villager that a wolf wouldn't have jumped on that vote at all either yesterday or today.
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Old 11-11-2009, 04:53 PM   #287
lerriuqs
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Catching up...Anybody have a vote count?
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Old 11-11-2009, 05:03 PM   #288
lerriuqs
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While I have no vote count, it appears it's between hoops and Kwhit...

I think Kwhit's arguments are stronger at this point and I think it's relatively certain we were villager-villager yesterday. So I'm not going to vote Kwhit again...unless something bad comes up against him.

So based on that and not really seeing any better options at this point...

Vote Hoops


I've gotta check out again. Hopefully back before deadline.
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Old 11-11-2009, 05:07 PM   #289
J23
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Originally Posted by Danny View Post
I'm kind of surprised that if J23 was a villager that a wolf wouldn't have jumped on that vote at all either yesterday or today.

I'm more curious why you're on a crusade to get me lynched. I don't know that a wolf would pull that move since you'd look terrible when I come back as a villager. Then again, that could be your alibi of sorts.
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Old 11-11-2009, 05:09 PM   #290
Lathum
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Busy w/ work today, so I missed the trivia. I'm guessing a wolf got it and destroyed it since they're the "good guys".

hmmmmmm

Interesting that you felt the need to point out to us that you missed the trivia...
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Old 11-11-2009, 05:13 PM   #291
Danny
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Originally Posted by J23 View Post
I'm more curious why you're on a crusade to get me lynched. I don't know that a wolf would pull that move since you'd look terrible when I come back as a villager. Then again, that could be your alibi of sorts.

Not a crusade, just an observation.
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Old 11-11-2009, 05:15 PM   #292
J23
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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
hmmmmmm

Interesting that you felt the need to point out to us that you missed the trivia...

I'd rather get as much info out as I can as a villagers. That's what leads to the right calls, and thus a win. Read into it what you will.
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Old 11-11-2009, 05:15 PM   #293
hoopsguy
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If a villager had gotten the item and destroyed it does anyone see a downside with announcing that they did so, as well as their rationale for removing the item from the game?
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Old 11-11-2009, 05:18 PM   #294
hoopsguy
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Just as an FYI for those who seem to want me in a runoff with KWhit, or just want to vote for me for whatever reasons - I'm not going to be around at the deadline. If you actually want to engage me in a discussion about why you think I'm a good vote choice (I usually do respond - go figure) then I would recommend doing so over the next 40 minutes.

I have no sweeping reveals to make, no role to give up - you'll just be down another redshirt. Albeit one who is actually trying to participate in the game rather than letting it become a snooze-fest.
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Old 11-11-2009, 05:41 PM   #295
Lathum
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I'm not a fan of voting Hoopsguy off today, it's like we are doing the wolves work for them.

He will almost certainly b scanned so may as well let him live.

I actually am considering switching to J23, one because I'm not getting anywhere with my DT theory and two I don't tlike the fact he felt the need to point out he wasn't around for trivia.

UNVOTE DT
VOTE J23
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Old 11-11-2009, 05:50 PM   #296
The Jackal
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I haven't been a big fan of his posts of the day, and we're sorta stagnant here. Let's see if this helps drive something.

VOTE J23
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Old 11-11-2009, 05:50 PM   #297
The Jackal
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I meant to say the tone of his posts.
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Old 11-11-2009, 06:03 PM   #298
J23
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Join Date: Jul 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Jackal View Post
I haven't been a big fan of his posts of the day, and we're sorta stagnant here. Let's see if this helps drive something.

Sorry. if my posts are curt. Using my phone for the last hour.
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Old 11-11-2009, 06:09 PM   #299
J23
College Benchwarmer
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
As for the content, I get annoyed when it feels that I'm being railroaded based on the gut of an experienced player, backed up by tenuous conjecture.
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Old 11-11-2009, 06:23 PM   #300
Chief Rum
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives


Although there is a crisis now aboard the ISS Enterprise and crew members suspiciously cast about for the next candidate for the brig, life does indeed go on in the Evil Universe.

And for some, days like these only mean opportunity.

The bridge is going about its business when J23 jumps up from his navigator's seat. He lets out a high pitched, blood-curdling scream, with a primal rage coming through in his thick Russian accent. He takes out a wickedly sharp knife, and leaps at one of his fellow crewmembers,

It's Lathum!

There is a struggle. Lathum tries to keep J23's knife from ending his life as the two grapple ont he bridge floor. The crew watches on, without helping. They know what this is--J23 is looking for a promotion.

Lathum is strong, but J23 is stronger. At long last, J23 has an advantage and with a last thrust, he sticks Lathum through the chest of his red (and getting redder) uniform. Lathum gasps, "At least...I lasted longer...than ntndeacon!"

Indeed, Lathum proved to be just another Evil Ensign Smith--one who lived longer than ntndeacon, but not by much.

J23, seeing that he has chosen wrong, leaps for his knife. But before he can get to it, security grabs him and holds him tight.

"Take him to the brig!" orders Spock. "Chekov's lesson is harsh, but fair. The rest of the crew would do well to remember this if they have similar aspirations to Chekov!"

LATHUM WAS (ANOTHER) EVIL ENSIGN SMITH

J23 WAS EVIL CHEKOV


__________________
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I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.
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