NFL 2018 Off Season Thread

[EagleFan]

1) Darnold
2) Jackson
3) Allen
4) Rosen
...
Mayfield

[MrBug708]

Rosen
Allen
Darnold
Falk
Mayfield
Jackson

[Galaril]

Rosen
Lauletta
Darnold
Faulk
White
Rudolph
Jackson
Allen






Mayfield.... in the CFL

[Julio Riddols]

Mayfield is my top guy. I think he might be the only guy who can make the Browns work right out the gate.

Darnold slides in at 2 with some Favre style gunslinging.

Lauletta has worked his way into the 3 spot as an underappreciated guy whose skills certainly look like they translate to a higher level in the Senior Bowl. Feels like the Garoppolo of the class.

Rosen at 4 with a very Cutleresque career.

Allen at 5 unless he goes to a team that sits him for a year or two before letting him loose with that arm. In the 70's I think he would have been a total stud. Today not so much.

Jackson at an exciting but frustrating 6. The kind of guy who gets you points and moves the ball and puts butts in seats, but can't stay on the field because his bread and butter is his athleticism. He's gonna get hit and his body looks way too thinly built for him to take NFL punishment.

Woodside is my dark horse long-term creeper.

Falk should be an excellent backup for a long time.

Rudolph is probably the only one I haven't made up my mind on that will be selected in the first couple rounds. He reminds me of bread with nothing on it. I'd eat it if there was nothing else to eat.

[NobodyHere]

To me the QB most likely to fail is the one drafted by the Browns.

As a fellow Toledo alum I have to root for Logan Woodside. Probably won't be anywhere top tier, but I think he'll have a similiar career to Toledoan Bruce Gradkowski.

[Edward64]

Looking forward to the draft tonight and wishing Cleveland the best at #1 & #4 (really wanting them to see some success in the next several years).

I don't know how to really evaluate the top 3 QB's. If I was the Browns, I would go with RB Barkley and then pick the remaining QB at #4. Barkley is the best player in the draft and can/should contribute immediately whereas the QB is a crapshoot IMO.

[Kodos]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-be-a-mistake/

[Kodos]

Heh. More evidence of my slow drift away from the NFL. I knew the draft was coming, but didn't realize it was today. I thought maybe it was this weekend, but had forgotten the whole stupid move it to a weekday in primetime thing.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Looking forward to the draft tonight and wishing Cleveland the best at #1 & #4 (really wanting them to see some success in the next several years).

I don't know how to really evaluate the top 3 QB's. If I was the Browns, I would go with RB Barkley and then pick the remaining QB at #4. Barkley is the best player in the draft and can/should contribute immediately whereas the QB is a crapshoot IMO.

I co-sign this, but am willing to put Chubb in the #1 spot also. Wouldn't be mortified by Barkley though.

[QuikSand]

Rosen
Darnold
Mayfield
Jackson
Lauletta
Allen

[albionmoonlight]

Reposting this so I can have it for easy access:

Rosen
Mayfield
Darnold
Jackson
Rudolph
Allen

I was on the fence with Rosen until Jim Mora Jr. went out of his way to slam him. Anytime a coach that bad feels that strongly about a player, I'm comfortable going the opposite way.

[Atocep]

Mayfield
Darnold
Rosen
Allen
Jackson

[Arles]

For the Packers, my preferred selections would be:
1. Roquan Smith (prob have to trade up)
2. Minkah Fitzpatrick (prob have to trade up)
3. Tremaine Edmunds
4. Jaire Alexander
5. Denzel Ward

I'll also be shocked if Darnold doesn't go #1. I think all this Mayfield stuff is a smoke screen by the Browns to mess with the Jets or Giants. If the Browns can somehow mess with people's heads to have QBs go 1-3 (ie, raise the value of Mayfield and maybe have someone trade to 2), they get their pick of position players at 4.

[CU Tiger]

My thoughts for posterity sake

Rudolph is the safest bet. I see career back up, to possible starter 4 years down the road as his ceiling, but I think that's pretty much a guaranteed floor as well. I could see the Pats taking him in the 2 or 3 range and getting great value.

Mayfield is boom or bust. I think hes a bust but I think there is a 20% chance he catches lightening in a bottle in the right fit and has a nice career.

Jackson - he has a differentiating skill set. I dont think it translates. But if someone committed to using him he could be successful.

Rosen, Darnold - Bust. Neither ever leads a team to a conference championship. Neither is a starting QB in 4 years.

Allen - Total flop. Out of the league in 3 years.


BTW of all of "Parcells QB Rules"
23 wins as a college starter is the highest eliminator of elite QBs. Not to say that all with 23 wins are elite, but of the top 14 rated passers in the NFL 12 hit the 23 win plateau as a college starter.

Josh Allen - 16
Rosen -17 wins
Darnold - 21
Lamar Jackson - 24
Mason Rudolph - 32
Baker Mayfield - 39

[Ryche]

Darnold
Allen
Jackson
Mayfield
Rosen
Lauletta
Falk
White

Darnold and Allen are probably the only 2 I'd want in the first

[miked]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

My thoughts for posterity sake

Rudolph is the safest bet. I see career back up, to possible starter 4 years down the road as his ceiling, but I think that's pretty much a guaranteed floor as well. I could see the Pats taking him in the 2 or 3 range and getting great value.

Mayfield is boom or bust. I think hes a bust but I think there is a 20% chance he catches lightening in a bottle in the right fit and has a nice career.

Jackson - he has a differentiating skill set. I dont think it translates. But if someone committed to using him he could be successful.

Rosen, Darnold - Bust. Neither ever leads a team to a conference championship. Neither is a starting QB in 4 years.

Allen - Total flop. Out of the league in 3 years.


BTW of all of "Parcells QB Rules"
23 wins as a college starter is the highest eliminator of elite QBs. Not to say that all with 23 wins are elite, but of the top 14 rated passers in the NFL 12 hit the 23 win plateau as a college starter.

Josh Allen - 16
Rosen -17 wins
Darnold - 21
Lamar Jackson - 24
Mason Rudolph - 32
Baker Mayfield - 39

Curious, which of these QBs led their team to conference titles (for real, I don't know)?

Brees
Rodgers
Roethlisberger
Brady
Wilson
Rivers
Ryan
Stafford

I'm sure I'm leaving people out, but these seem to be the elite QBs of the NFL and very few seem to fit that criteria.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by miked

Curious, which of these QBs led their team to conference titles (for real, I don't know)?

Brees
Rodgers
Roethlisberger
Brady
Wilson
Rivers
Ryan
Stafford

I'm sure I'm leaving people out, but these seem to be the elite QBs of the NFL and very few seem to fit that criteria.

I think CU was speaking about never doing that for their NFL teams. And then being out in 4 years.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by Logan

I think CU was speaking about never doing that for their NFL teams. And then being out in 4 years.

This. Just stating my projection of their NFL career.
I was going to say "never wins a playoff game" but I mean...Tim Tebow did that. So never a conference champ seems like a good bar.

[Arles]

Brees - 24, Rodgers - 18, Ben - 27, Brady - 20 (some as a backup), Wilson - 30, Ryan - 30, Rivers - 34, Stafford - 30.

But, remember, a lot of these guys played 4 years. Darnold and Allen just played two. In his first two seasons, Darnold had more wins than Rodgers, Brees, Wilson and Ben. I'm not sure how viable a stat that is now days as most highly rated QBs won't start more than 2 seasons before going pro. Your top 3 "winning" college QBs in the modern era are Kellen Moore, Colt McCoy and Andy Dalton. Not exactly a great list...

[miked]

Hah, misreading FTW

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by miked

Curious, which of these QBs led their team to conference titles (for real, I don't know)?

Brees
Rodgers
Roethlisberger
Brady
Wilson
Rivers
Ryan
Stafford

I'm sure I'm leaving people out, but these seem to be the elite QBs of the NFL and very few seem to fit that criteria.

But I think you do kind of illustrate my point.

Brees -24
Rodgers - 18 (2 year starter )
Roethlisberger - 27
Brady - 20 (2 year starter)
Wilson - 31
Rivers - 34
Ryan - 30
Stafford - 30


16 and 17 are huge red flags.
Darnold sort of fits the Rodgers/Brady pattern I just personally dont see it.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by Arles

But, remember, a lot of these guys played 4 years.

Rivers is really your only 4 year starter.

[sabotai]

Even though I really don't know much about these guys, I'll throw out a list for shits and giggles.

Darnold
Mayfield
Rosen
Rudolph
Jackson
Allen

Of course, who ever the Browns take will plummet to the bottom of the list, as is tradition.

[Logan]

According to Twitter, Mayfield is now -500 to go #1 at Sportsbook.ag

Madness.

[Thomkal]

I think seeing all the orders of QB given here and mock drafts, nobody has a clue how things will go tonight.

[Julio Riddols]

Mayfield is the only guy who will have success in Cleveland. He's the only one with the mentality to do it. I think he will take Taylor's job by mid season if they take him.

Rosen seems like a great fit for New England, but I think he goes to the Giants if they don't take Barkley. If the Giants take Barkley, I think that means they will be picking high again next season because their QB situation is not too good. Manning is one of the most overrated QBs in the league, up there with Flacco.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

Rivers is really your only 4 year starter.

Rodgers is the only 2 year starter as well. Most were 3-year starters that played some in year 4 as well. It was a different world. My point was I don't think you can fault Darnold. He redshirted his first year as most QBs do now days and then started nearly all his 2nd and 3rd year. That's about the best you are going to get for elite prospects.

I think the 23 win number is a good one for 3 or 4 year starters. It hurts guys like Rosen, Hackenberg and Paxton Lynch - while others like Watson, Prescott and Derek Carr won more. I just think it is a little unfair for guys like Darnold and Cam Newton (who won a ton, but didn't play 3+ seasons). But if you want to use it as a knock on Rosen, I think that's legit.

[Ryche]

Well, Allen did start most of his year at the junior college and was the starter 3 years at Wyoming (being injured 2 games into his first season) So calling him a 2 year starter is a bit harsh.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Ryche

Well, Allen did start most of his year at the junior college and was the starter 3 years at Wyoming (being injured 2 games into his first season) So calling him a 2 year starter is a bit harsh.

My point was in regards to wins. It's hard to get 23 wins when you only start two seasons. Allen was 8-3 last season and Darnold was 11-2. I think it's a legit knock against Rosen - as he started 30 games and won just 17.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by Arles

Rodgers is the only 2 year starter as well. Most were 3-year starters that played some in year 4 as well. It was a different world. My point was I don't think you can fault Darnold. He redshirted his first year as most QBs do now days and then started nearly all his 2nd and 3rd year. That's about the best you are going to get for elite prospects.

I think the 23 win number is a good one for 3 or 4 year starters. It hurts guys like Rosen, Hackenberg and Paxton Lynch - while others like Watson, Prescott and Derek Carr won more. I just think it is a little unfair for guys like Darnold and Cam Newton (who won a ton, but didn't play 3+ seasons). But if you want to use it as a knock on Rosen, I think that's legit.

Rodgers and Brady were both 2 year starters on your list.
Clearly both are elite QBs, but they are the outlier not the rule. You could also add neither was asked to start day 1.

Back to my first post I dont think 23 wins guarantees success, but not having 23 is a huge red flag for me. Its not a be all end all metric, but you better either have Rodgers/Brady talent or a darn good explanation as to why you dont have the wins.

I disagree strongly with your assertion that "most QBs red shirt these days" its exceedingly rare for a top QB to red shirt.

For me, there is still and "it" factor with QBs. Its one reason I was so adamant that Watson would be a star last year. Despite only starting for 2 full seasons he had won 33 games as a college starter. He won 40 some games as a high school kid at a GA high school that had historically been a door mat.

Winner's win. Winner's elevate those around them.

I hate,hate,hate Baker Mayfield. But the dude wins and his team mates will run through a wall for him. I think there is a high bust potential there. Very high. But I'd take him before any other QB in this draft if I am Cleveland and forced to take a QB at 1-1.

I dont like Darnold, but I can see a scenario where he shines. I dont expect it. But I can see it.

I dont want Allen at Mr. Irrelevant.

To your earlier point about it being hard to get 23 wins in 2 years as a starter, unless there are mitigating circumstances 2 years as a starter is a red flag in itself. If you are a franchise QB you should be starting darn near day 1. If you arent then I want to now why. I hope the QB you couldnt beat out is a starter somewhere in the NFL...because at best I am playing runnr up to that team.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Ryche

Well, Allen did start most of his year at the junior college and was the starter 3 years at Wyoming (being injured 2 games into his first season) So calling him a 2 year starter is a bit harsh.

If the Broncos draft anyone in the first at 5 I am going to be disappointed this team needs a semi rebuild and already got a QB who is at worse serviceable. They need to trade back get two first and another second rounder and or a third from say Buffalo. Fix the line grab a RB a CB and some slime depth. They will be back in the top 12 next year I suspect. They should grab a Lauletta or Falk in the third or fourth round and dump Lynch.

[Arles]

For the QBs, I think three could be good:
1. Darnold
2. Jackson
3. Rosen

I don't see either Mayfield or Allen being a successful starter, but it is always a crapshoot. Darnold is the safest pick for a 10-year starter, but I do think Jackson has a ton of upside. I think Rosen is getting knocked for his personality a lot, and those UCLA teams just weren't very good. He took a beating and kept on going - which is a good trait for the next Jets QB

[MrBug708]

Most of the Rosen personality stuff is just media nonsense. I think the real reason he's not the #1 is because nobody is convinced he can stay healthy and that's risky taking him. If you can't protect him, don't bother drafting him

[Suicane75]

My opinions on the QB's in this draft.

1.1 Mayfield: I don't have a firm opinion either way. He can throw and he can move, but he's also small and may get blown up trying to move in the NFL. I'm not against trying him out, but not at 1.1

1.3 Darnold: He's the guy I think I like most, and even then I don't love him. I could see many average seasons from him. Being in NY will hurt because they'll want him to be better than he is, even if he's adequate. I think his ceiling is Penningtonesque, which before the injuries wasn't all that bad.

1.7 Allen: No. If you can't throw it doesn't matter what else you can do. God save us from Blake Bortles 2.0

1.10 Josh Rosen: I don't care what he can do with his arm, he's a fucking bean and he's gonna get killed in the NFL. If he adds weight and if he has an elite line keeping him healthy I think he could be the best QB in the draft, but between his head and his skinny, skinny, skinny, skinny body, he could be closer to David Carr than anything worthwhile.

1.32 Lamar Jackson: I like him. I'm probably wrong, but I think you can teach the things that need teaching and you can't teach instinct and freak athleticism. And I don't think the things that need teaching are as bad as his detractors will tell you. If he takes a year or two to learn, and he WILL learn, this is a steal of epic proportions.

[Julio Riddols]

I think what is going to make Mayfield good is that there are things about him that you don't have to or can't coach into a person. He's overcome odds his whole career, starting at a major school as a freshman walk on is crazy, especially one that relies so much on passing. Not only did he start, he had tremendous success in doing so. He has a charismatic quality that teammates obviously love, and I don't think his passion for the game is even questionable. The fact that he has succeeded as he has despite being dismissed as an afterthought every step of the way (he wasn't even really on the draft radar as recently as the beginning of the 2017 season) says all that needs to be said about how rock solid his demeanor is, and that is something you need when you're down big and your teammates look to you and ask "what now?". This guy isn't a California pretty boy QB, he's got some dirt on him and embraces hardship more than any other prospect in recent memory. Every question about him has been answered on and off the field at every turn, and that's why he went number 1. I think this pick will make John Dorsey a legend in Cleveland.

All I see is a trait that all the great QB's share, and that is one of making the players around them better. Add his obvious talent and a confidence level that I don't think can be shaken to the equation and I feel like no situation is too bad for him. It sucks that the Browns will be successful soon, but I'm gonna enjoy the hell out of watching him torch the Bengals a couple times a year.

Hard knocks will be a fun watch this year for sure.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

I disagree strongly with your assertion that "most QBs red shirt these days" its exceedingly rare for a top QB to red shirt.

Even when they should (*cough*Shea Patterson *cough*)

*and by "top" I'm referring to college QB prospects, not making any statement about Patterson's NFL potential*

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Suicane75

1.10 Josh Rosen: I don't care what he can do with his arm, he's a fucking bean and he's gonna get killed in the NFL. If he adds weight and if he has an elite line keeping him healthy I think he could be the best QB in the draft, but between his head and his skinny, skinny, skinny, skinny body, he could be closer to David Carr than anything worthwhile.

I'm curious as to what exactly is the definition of skinny? He measured 6'4, 226. That's bigger than most of the QB's in the draft. I get that he doesn't quite have hisman body yet, but skinny seems like an odd word. The average size of an NFL quarter back is 6'3.5 and 225, which Josh hits pretty much on the mark.

[Suicane75]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

I'm curious as to what exactly is the definition of skinny? He measured 6'4, 226. That's bigger than most of the QB's in the draft. I get that he doesn't quite have hisman body yet, but skinny seems like an odd word. The average size of an NFL quarter back is 6'3.5 and 225, which Josh hits pretty much on the mark.

I don't care what the numbers say, all I have to do is look at him. He may be hiding his weight somewhere but when you look at him, in uniform and out, he's skinny. He looks like frail, which would be something I'd be more willing to dismiss if he didn't have a track record of getting hurt.

[cuervo72]

So you're saying he's Sam Bradford.

[CU Tiger]

Rosen actually has a solid and thick lower body.
He has high hips and a thick hamstring glute chain which will serve him well.
He has a narrow upper body, long slope trap arrangement and a long neck. He looks skinnier than he is.

Unfortunately for him, most NFL QB injuries are to the upper body and his build doesnt help him there.

Of all the things to question Rosen on, I think his build is down the list. Except for his arm length. 31" arms at 6'4" is far from ideal for a QB in my unpaid opinion.

Again I think Rosen's problem will be his head not his body.

[MrBug708]

That's probably a good thing for his career then

[Atocep]

According to Peter King, the Pats had interest in Mayfield if he slipped into a range they could trade up to.

The Browns got very little interest in the #4 pick. The only team offering a 2019 1st offered it on the condition Mayfield was there at 4.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

Rosen actually has a solid and thick lower body.
He has high hips and a thick hamstring glute chain which will serve him well.
He has a narrow upper body, long slope trap arrangement and a long neck. He looks skinnier than he is.

Unfortunately for him, most NFL QB injuries are to the upper body and his build doesnt help him there.

Of all the things to question Rosen on, I think his build is down the list. Except for his arm length. 31" arms at 6'4" is far from ideal for a QB in my unpaid opinion.

Again I think Rosen's problem will be his head not his body.

Nice analysis. I agree with everything you said. I think his head is going to be why he fails to live up to his draft status.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

Nice analysis. I agree with everything you said. I think his head is going to be why he fails to live up to his draft status.

Injuries would be my best guess, especially since he probably will be one of those concussion guys who quits before it's too late.

By head, I'm guessing you mean mouth?

[Chief Rum]

I'm with Bug. I think people overrate the effect of his "head." There has been no lack of successful quarterbacks who are egotistical and outspoken.

I think the injury concern, though, is very real. If he fails to reach his potential, that will be the reason.

[MrBug708]

Browns exec on Josh Rosen: “Something about him . . . bothered me” – ProFootballTalk

Browns V.P. of player personnel Alonzo Highsmith had plenty to say on Monday about how the team settled on quarterback Baker Mayfield. Highsmith also shared some insights on why the Browns didn’t settle on quarterback Josh Rosen.

“I was at an airport,” Highsmith said Monday at the Pro Football Hall of Fame Luncheon Club, via the Canton Repository. “UCLA’s volleyball team was in front of me. You heard so much about Rosen. He’s this or that. We all know how people talk.

“So I asked one of the volleyball coaches, ‘What’s Rosen like?’ He said, ‘Aaaa, you should probably ask his girlfriend. She’s one of the players. She’s over there.’

“I’m like, ‘All right coach. That’s good enough.’ . . . I don’t know what all this means, but there was something about him that bothered me.”


Browns gonna Browns

[Kodos]

Sometimes you have to go with your gut. Even if you are the Browns.

[MrBug708]

I just find it funny based on the GM being too awkward to talk to his girlfriend

[Logan]

Who's buying this rumor that the Pats were willing to move all the way up to #2 for Baker Mayfield if he was there?

[jeff061]

I have no clue, doesn't fit their MO, but they on occasion do things completely unexpected. At this point I think it's just as likely that Belichick planted it to piss off Brady.

So sick of Brady. Came to the conclusion years ago that he was a bit of a bitch and only played well when something/someone was pressuring him, but my god. I didn't want him to go out there and prove what a whiny primadonna he is to everyone. Just awful that he's here and Garoppolo isn't. Kraft isn't getting near the amount of shit he deserves for screwing this up.