Matthew

[Ben E Lou]

Good luck Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, and, uh, the whole Southeast Coast.

[cartman]

I'm supposed to fly out of Tampa on Friday. Should be interesting!

[Ben E Lou]

The crazy thing about that track is that we have friends from both Charleston and the Outer Banks on standby to evac, and there's at least a chance that both could end up coming. That'd be an additional four adults, seven kids, and 2 dogs! (Not all would stay at the house. We have an alternate location ready to go on the off chance that both decide to evac.)

[Ben E Lou]

Dola...

Not to mention that we have a house that we're trying to sell in Charleston right now...

[Thomkal]

yeah mother Nature is getting back at me for criticizing the tracks of hurricanes the past few years. Seems like every one has come up the coast this year. No word on evacuations here, but we do live in a zone that would likely be evacuated if it happens.

[CraigSca]

Stay east, Matthew.

[NobodyHere]

So is this a storm of biblical proportions?

[tarcone]

My sister lives in Ft. Lauderdale area. They are on the look out. Hope it turns east

[Abe Sargent]

Yay of being in the Gulf Coast but in Mobile, where no hurricane, tropical storm, or bad flooding has happened for a long time. Knocks on the wood.

[Chief Rum]

Is this where I joke about having the power of a hurricane? Or is this just a tropical storm?

All jokes aside, stay safe folks (presuming it winds its way up to the States).

[Subby]

Matthew forms into skull over Haiti!

https://www.facebook.com/33105925364...type=3&theater

[Ben E Lou]

Madame Guvnah just declared an evacuation of "all coastal communities" in SC starting tomorrow. All schools and government offices closed. Lanes reversed.

[CraigSca]

Latest Euro has landfall around Melbourne (?). On a personal level this would suuuuucccccckkkk.

Will be interesting to see the 5pm update from NHC.

Numerical Model Prediction - Tropical Tidbits

[tarcone]

That shows it affecting my Dad in Ocala. Central part of the state. Looks like a bad time to be in Florida.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Madame Guvnah just declared an evacuation of "all coastal communities" in SC starting tomorrow. All schools and government offices closed. Lanes reversed.

sigh.

[claphamsa]

schools in FT lauderdale closed thursday and friday....might hit DC area sat evening...dont they know we have a baseball game to play?

[Ben E Lou]

Our Charleston friends are coming to stay with us, and apparently there are now no hotels available in Columbia, Atlanta, or Augusta.

[miked]

Had plans to go to Hliton Head for fall break Thurs-Mon. Just got news from the condo place that there is a mandatory evacuation starting tomorrow afternoon and the bridge to the Island may be closed Thursday and Friday. There goes that!

[Marc Vaughan]

We're under some kind of warning of dire consequences here ... but I'm optimistic that it'll shift eastward a bit ..

[sabotai]

(Saw this in the subreddit "/r/dataisbeautiful") Matthew passing over a weather bouy: NDBC - 5-day plot - Wind Gust at 42058

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.p...s=wdpr&uom=E_1

[EagleFan]

Really waiting to see what is going to happen. My oldest daughter turns 16 on Sunday and is having a party/sleepover on Saturday afternoon/evening.

Kind of stuck in middle ground of do we cancel and reschedule or wait and see.

[EagleFan]

dola: and now with a moody teenager after discussing this with her...

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

dola: and now with a moody teenager after discussing this with her...

I would wait until Thurs or Friday-the path of these things can change a million times before then. Right now its actually moved to the east a bit and will go past into the Outer Banks. The European model at one point today, actually had it stalling before it got to Myrtle Beach, then moving SE, which is just crazy.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

I would wait until Thurs or Friday-the path of these things can change a million times before then. Right now its actually moved to the east a bit and will go past into the Outer Banks. The European model at one point today, actually had it stalling before it got to Myrtle Beach, then moving SE, which is just crazy.

Yeah, waiting to make any decision but wanted to discuss it with her tonight so it wasn't a bombshell if we have to change plans. Hopefully that was all for nothing.

[Wolfpack]

Definitely getting our attention here now. Raleigh's a couple of hours inland from Wilmington up I-40, but with the track, everyone's thinking back to Fran and Floyd because those hurricanes hammered eastern North Carolina just after everything had been previously soaked with flooding rains. More flooding rains, soft ground, and high winds--a real bad combination for trees staying upright.

In any event, I won't be personal witness to this as my daughter and I are heading up to western Maryland for a trip this coming weekend. My wife will still be here with our other two daughters so this should be a real interesting time for them. I don't think Raleigh will be heavily affected, but again, the Fran/Floyd comparisons are out there, which is slightly concerning. Hopefully the forecasts continue to keep pulling eastwards as it looks like it has in the 11 PM advisory just issued.

Reading the 11 PM info, it looks like Haiti and Cuba did diminish it, but not as much as would have been liked as it's still a Cat 4 after exiting Cuba. The forecast track is bending it back to the US because a high pressure area north of the storm is expected to begin driving it towards the coast. Unfortunately, this means just about all of the Bahamas are going to get everything Matthew has to offer for the next 48 hours because the path is pretty much right through the middle of the island chain. Forecasters do expect it to diminish somewhat through shearing by the time it nears the US coast, but it still looks like this is going to be ugly for anybody south of Hatteras on the coast because Matthew is right now forecast to just hug the coast all the way up to the Outer Banks. The worst side of the storm will stay out to sea for Florida in this scenario, but from Savannah on north, the coast is going to get hammered relentlessly from about Friday evening through Sunday morning.

[Ben E Lou]

Yesterday's Euro and the overnight GFS have this sucker walking right up to Charleston Harbor and then doing a full freaking loop back to the Bahamas. And it looks like that updated 5am NWS map above is starting to reflect that.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Yesterday's Euro and the overnight GFS have this sucker walking right up to Charleston Harbor and then doing a full freaking loop back to the Bahamas. And it looks like that updated 5am NWS map above is starting to reflect that.

yeah looks like the European model was closer to being right here. Guess we put the storm shutters up today, but now not sure we are going to evacuate. We live on the border of the evac zone-those living on the east side of the highway are supposed to evacuate. We live off the other side. Crazy.

[cuervo72]

Haven't Euro models been a lot more accurate overall? US needs to up its game.

[CraigSca]

We're on the eastern side of Central Florida (about 35 miles from the beach), and now have a hurricane warning. Just spent the day moving all potential projectiles from the pool area into the garage. A lot of chainsaws being heard in the neighborhood as well.

Filled up one car with gas and attempted to fill up the minivan, but the gas stations are now cleaned out.

Hoping this stays out to sea just a little. Apparently when Charley hit here 12 years ago (before we were here) the owners had to get a new roof and power was out for up to 3 weeks. Ugh.

[Ben E Lou]

Reason #258567 why I am an unabashed Nikki Haley fanboy. 300+ school buses heading to Charleston and surrounding areas to aid in evacuation of people without transportation.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Yesterday's Euro and the overnight GFS have this sucker walking right up to Charleston Harbor and then doing a full freaking loop back to the Bahamas. And it looks like that updated 5am NWS map above is starting to reflect that.

The wild card there is Tropical Storm Nicole sitting out there. If Matthew spins off into the ocean rather than traveling up the east coast, Nicole could push it right back.

Could Hurricane Matthew and Tropical Storm Nicole collide? - Story

[Comey]

Originally Posted by molson

The wild card there is Tropical Storm Nicole sitting out there. If Matthew spins off into the ocean rather than traveling up the east coast, Nicole could push it right back.

Could Hurricane Matthew and Tropical Storm Nicole collide? - Story

I wasn't aware that adjacent tropical storms forces a Middle School Dance situation until today. I feel more well-rounded due to the knowledge.

[Thomkal]

It's pretty funny around my family. My youngest brother is named Matthew. He is married to...you guessed it...Nicole. So we are blaming all of this on them even though they are in NY.

We are in a holding pattern here. Evacs for my country have been pushed back to noon tomorrow now. Supposedly there are no hotels with rooms except for the far end of the state-which just seems way too far away from here. We shall see what the morning brings us.

[CraigSca]

Our latest forecast is calling for winds of 75-95mph with gusts to 115.

Have no idea what to expect - never faced anything like this.

[CU Tiger]

As many here know, I've been working exclusively in the emergency power business for the past few years since going back to work.

I.E I design and sell generator systems for critical applications (Healthcare, water treatment and data centers being me core focus)....the small company I work for has a number of key accounts in the Charleston area including the VA.

This afternoon we mobilized (we being me and 3 of my techs) and drove east into Charleston while everyone headed west.

We are in process of checking and exercising every critical system in our network. Then we will shelter in our office and wait.

Gonna be a fun weekend either way.

At least we will have power

[Wolfpack]

A small sign of hope in the new 11 PM advisory, but only later in the forecast period. They're pretty sure about the next 48 hours and that Matthew's going to rake Florida after it's done with the Bahamas starting late tomorrow. Looks like Miami and points south are largely going to get spared, but from West Palm on up to Jacksonville, it will be a rough go between about sunset tomorrow all the way into the wee hours on Saturday depending on where on the coast you are. Really looks bad for places like Melbourne and Daytona as the current track forecast pretty much makes Matthew's closest approach along that stretch of the coastline during the morning and early afternoon hours on Friday before the storm retreats back out to sea by Friday night. Charleston may also be in better shape as the storm seems to be staying offshore by a ways as it passes by, but of course, it's still a weather forecast and many grains of salt have to be taken with it. A bit more of a jog to the left and it'll end up in Charleston. Regardless, the seas will still be quite rough and it'll be a generally sucky Saturday weatherwise no matter where Matthew ends up going.


As for the long term hope, it pretty much rests in the fact that even as the storm wanders around in the Atlantic later in the forecast period, the shear will begin tearing up the storm and weaken it considerably. I also noticed that the endpoint of the five day forecast has shifted a bit to the east and has flattened the "hook" that the storm is expected to make in the Atlantic, which may mean that the storm will not loop back to hit Florida at a later point. In any event, best wishes to you Florida readers and stay safe.

[Thomkal]

Well in the end we decided to stay. Had we been on the east side of the highway, we would have to evacuate (no voluntary evacs in SC anymore). It's looking better and better that the storm will stay far enough out to sea that we "just" get tropical Storm level winds and a lot of rain (8-12 inches on already saturated ground) starting overnight Friday and continuing through Sat. Looks like the storm will quickly deterioriate to a Category 1 storm once it makes the turn into the ocean.

Feel bad for my friends and family staying in Florida and Charleston and of course anyone in those areas on here too.

[Flasch186]

We're staying put too...

[tarcone]

Sis has gas, propane and food. House boarded up. Looks like she will be a little south. But get wind and rain. Nut a big hit.
Dad boarded up house. HE will get it worse than my sis on the coast.

[dawgfan]

Stay safe everyone.

[Easy Mac]

With the caveat that they can't 100% predict where the hurricane will be going in 2-3 days, let alone 10, I did see the 10 day prediction currently has it curling back and crossing Florida, stopping in the gulf, then turning around and crossing Florida back into the Atlantic. That would be the most insane thing I think I can imagine.

Also, I'm going down to Fort Walton next weekend, so I'm hoping it decides to just ride out into the Atlantic instead of spinning in the gulf.

[Dutch]

Much more of a minor predicament in Tampa, but I am trying /hoping to fly in around 9 tonight. As long as my flight doesn't get cancelled...

[tarcone]

Yeah, I saw the looping motion. It will smack right into the Miami area.

I didnt see the loop back over Florida after the Gulf though.

I guess a decade with no storms in being paid back in one storm.

[Dutch]

That loop back is scary, might build back up to a cat 1 or 2?

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Dutch

That loop back is scary, might build back up to a cat 1 or 2?

Right now they're saying it'll cross Florida as a TS. If that happens, I'm curious what happens when it hits those warm Gulf waters.

[tarcone]

And its by my sisters house. Nothing major. Bands of rain. And some rain.

[cartman]

It looks like I have a decent chance to fly out of Tampa tomorrow. Using the United app I can see the places my plane is going to go before arriving in Tampa, and they are all currently ok. So if the plane can land and then take off, I'm good. The current forecast is for rain and a ton of wind tomorrow. If the wind lines up and stays in the general direction of one of the runways, that would be a good thing.

[Ben E Lou]

Foolishness deleted.

[Butter]

Looks like it hasn't been quite as bad as it could've been so far because the eyewall has stayed just offshore. The forecast keeps it there until it loops back to hit the Bahamas a second time. I bet they're thrilled.

[CraigSca]

Storm is mostly past us now (though we're still getting tropical storm gusts). The front yard has small branches and palm fronds all over it, but, knock on wood, we're among the few who still have power. Was pretty scary overnight, but not as bad as it could have been because of a slight tilt to the east.

Also - there's great radar showing how it actually curled around Cape Canaveral, sparing the Space Center.