NFL 2021 Regular Season Thread

[spleen1015]

One thing that was weird to me on this was the official that spotted the ball was behind the play. Don't we often see an official right there when the play ends for the player to hand the ball to? Not saying anyone did anything wrong. I think that official was doing exactly what he was supposed to do and it just didn't align with what some think he should have been doing.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I know people are making a big stink about that last play but even if they had spiked it, it would have required them to score from the 23 on a single play. I would guess the percentages of that are not much higher than a hailmary.

Basically, the Cowboys lost for a lot of reasons and that extra play was probably not going to matter.

Except the Chargers did just that last week - 4th and 21 and threw a TD from the 23.

But yeah, the Cowboys get no sympathy. In addition to how they managed the last minutes, perhaps they should have showed up in the 1st half.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Except the Chargers did just that last week - 4th and 21 and threw a TD from the 23.

But yeah, the Cowboys get no sympathy. In addition to how they managed the last minutes, perhaps they should have showed up in the 1st half.

Just saying a TD in that spot would have been highly unlikely. People are acting like they had a 50/50 shot of getting it in when it's probably like 2-3%.

[Solecismic]

Teams were 4-21 this season throwing on 4th down, 16+ yards to go.

[Atocep]

This wraps up a weekend of good games...

[Kodos]

Wow. Sorry Thomkal….

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by Atocep

This wraps up a weekend of good games...

Yeah, just a brutal weekend.

[bronconick]

Thanks for coming out, Cardinals.

[bhlloy]

For a HC who is supposed to be offensive guru the Cards offensive line just looks completely lost out there. He’s being taken behind the woodshed by Morris right now.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Wow. Sorry Thomkal….

Sadly this was the Detroit Lions version of the Cardinals, not the Dallas version.

[RainMaker]

KYLER MURRAY pic.twitter.com/7NTpMhnem7

— i’m him (@_312DARIUS) January 18, 2022

[cuervo72]

I think Murray forgot to take his VR headset off.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I am at a loss to explain Lamar Jackson. His passing numbers do not correlate well with winning games, yet Baltimore wins a lot of games with him (and not with Huntley) and clearly defenses have to put in new looks and packages just to address what he does.

When I retooled my spreadsheet, it was in an attempt to capture the contributions of quarterbacks who run well. And I think it did that for everyone else. It shouldn't be that hard to figure, since a quarterback run, designed or semi-designed when the opportunity opens, generally gains an average of 6-7 yards if the quarterback has good speed. Which is in the neighborhood of a pass attempt. So you're replacing the throw itself with the run.

Jackson runs so much that it may enter another category on its own. Jalen Hurts is entering that territory, and with a good YPAS (6.47 yds), but it doesn't seem to help Philadelphia as much.

I've looked at adding the rushing attempts (call it YPARS) and it doesn't change the correlations because it really doesn't change the yardage per play. There's also a 10% positive correlation between number of sacks and number of rushing attempts.

So I've tried looking at players where there's less difference between YPA and YPARS (which averages 1.0 yds). Jackson is unusually low there (0.71 yds), and #1 is Peyton Manning (0.52 yds). I wonder if there's anything in that stat. It doesn't correlate as well with winning as the other yardage stats, but since it's measuring something very different, any good correlation (31% in this case) is interesting. Some players who have very high differences include Garoppolo (1.28 yds), Russell Wilson (1.20) and Deshaun Watson (1.40).

Another piece to consider is how much responsibility a quarterback shoulders. Garoppolo is on the very low end in average plays per game (runs + sacks + pass attempts) with 29. But most starters who are considered elite are in the high 30s. Jackson is at 40, Watson and Josh Allen 41. Anything that's not in this category is a run play, which has a lower average gain (around 4 yards). But heavier dependence on run plays runs the clock faster, which limits your opponents' opportunities. In other words, Garoppolo's higher numbers have less to do with winning than simply a benefit of a good ball-control offense.

But no matter what I try that's in the realm of reasonable, I can't get Jackson to "pop" without stretching reason.

Some of the more advanced stats incorporate yards to go as a piece of the puzzle. Maybe those illuminate something about Jackson. You also can't discount the extraordinary difference in career length between quarterbacks who run a lot and the rest of the quarterback pool.

I imagine this would be a nightmare to analyse, but is there a way of looking at the average personnel packages that a QB faces?

Does Jackson face 1 or even 2 more DBs per play than most QBs, which mnot directly affect his stats, but increases the effectiveness of the RB which obviously helps the team win.

So rather than being a distance per play stat, it’s a ‘how does the QB affect the D’ stat and how does that compare to winning percentage?

[QuikSand]

We know Greg Roman tends to wear out his welcome, and I don’t hate the Ravens’ decision to change OC… but there’s a nonzero chance that some of Lamar’s inexplicably good outcomes start to round down next season without peak GR scheming.

[spleen1015]

What's with all of the interview announcements this year?

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

My thoughts on the games this weekend

Las Vegas at Cincinnati (-5): Cincinnati is the team I am rooting for to win it all, though I don’t think they will. They should be able to take care of business here, though the Raiders are playing with a bit of house money here and would love to force ownership to keep their coach and QB by winning a game or two. I’m expecting Cincinnati to win and cover, but I’m not totally sold on the idea.

New England at Buffalo (-4): Buffalo is a better team. But I’m not picking against Belichick in the playoffs. I pick New England to win outright.

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (-8.5): That is a heck of a point spread. Tampa lost one of their star WRs to an ACL, and they guy who could have replaced him with a broken soul. Locker room issues? And Philadelphia has been playing well for the second half of the season. But Tampa has the best QB in history who is still playing at an MVP level. If I were betting real money, I’d stay away. But for our purposes here, I’ll say that Philadelphia covers the spread.

San Francisco at Dallas (-3): Dallas is playing really well on both sides of the ball. I think that they win in a mild blowout. We will see how Shanahan does next season with a fully operational Death Star (i.e. a QB without Jimmy G.’s limitations).

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5): There is a sense that KC has been playing almost like a top NBA team for the second half of this season and is just waiting for the playoffs to get really engaged. Tomlin is an amazing coach, and dragging Ben’s corpse to the playoffs should be one of the things they discuss when they vote him into the Hall of Fame. And that line gives me a little pause. But at some point the QB disparity is just too much. Kansas City to win and cover.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-4): Bettors everywhere rejoice at the opportunity they will have over the next few seasons to bet against Matt Stafford in playoff games. Arizona to win outright.

Something about that's how those casinos can afford to build those fountains in the middle of the desert or something . . .

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

What's with all of the interview announcements this year?

My guess is so no one can be accused of not interviewing a wide range of people before they hire the guy they were going to hire before doing any of those interviews.

[molson]

Has one of these interviews ever been documented in detail?

We act like they're absolutely necessary to give fair consideration to people, but then as soon as someone is hired, everyone on the outside knows exactly whether it was the right hire even though they have no idea what happened in the interview.

I feel like with an NFL head coach you know the guy and his experience pretty well already.

[henry296]

ESPN did a general story on the interview process and sounded like a typical job interview focused on leadership and not necessarily Xs and Os.

[NobodyHere]

Are candidates asked if they are gay or if their mothers are prostitutes?

[Atocep]

The Bears once disqualified Russ Grimm as a head coaching candidate because their interviews included a mock press conference and Grimm mispronounced McCaskey during his.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by Atocep

The Bears once disqualified Russ Grimm as a head coaching candidate because their interviews included a mock press conference and Grimm mispronounced McCaskey during his.

The Bears are the best organization.

[flere-imsaho]

How does one mispronounce McCaskey?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

How does one mispronounce McCaskey?

"Clueless dickhead"

[QuikSand]

Not buying that as mis-pronounced, tbh

[QuikSand]

So, at the same time, I want to say two contradictory things:

-I was awfully impressed at the scheme domination by SF that basically let them overcome an arguably by-the-pieces better team in Dallas, and am under their spell a bit as a live longshot seemingly capable of beating anyone.

-I sense a good deal bit of recency bias in the betting line on the SF-at-GB game, where it sounds like the consensus is around GB -5 1/2. That seems pretty disrespectful of the home team, after a week off to rest their toes, who put together an awfully impressive body of work for the season and likely deserves more than a nominal three point advantage over the flavor of the moment.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

"Clueless dickhead"

Heh

[NobodyHere]

Cleveland Browns DT Malik McDowell arrested on charges of battery on police officer, resisting arrest, public exposure

At least he isn't likely to be a Brown anymore.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Atocep

The Bears once disqualified Russ Grimm as a head coaching candidate because their interviews included a mock press conference and Grimm mispronounced McCaskey during his.

They also made Bruce Arians do the mock press conference and passed on him for Marc Trestman. Arians was also not allowed to bring in his own staff, he had to keep some shitty coaches the McCaskeys liked.

[Carman Bulldog]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

What's with all of the interview announcements this year?

I think it's just another way for the NFL to dominate the news cycle. I mean, they have a tracker for interviews on NFL.com.

[albionmoonlight]

I know that just picking chalk in the NFL is dangerous.

But man it feels like a Green Bay-Kansas City Super Bowl this year. Both teams getting healthy and peaking at the right time.

[spleen1015]

The head coach of this staff? Jay Gruden.

[cuervo72]

Gruden was HC in 2014. Kyle left when Mike was canned.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Cleveland Browns DT Malik McDowell arrested on charges of battery on police officer, resisting arrest, public exposure

At least he isn't likely to be a Brown anymore.

...a guy who was already on his second chance, too. Stinks.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Gruden was HC in 2014. Kyle left when Mike was canned.

Twitter lied to me!

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

But man it feels like a Green Bay-Kansas City Super Bowl this year. Both teams getting healthy and peaking at the right time.

Kansas City, yes, although it wouldn't shock me if they didn't get there. But why Green Bay? I don't think they're peaking now, I think they peaked closer to mid-season. I don't think they were impressive the last month ... I'd take them if I had to take a favorite just due to home-field, but *only* for that reason.

I view this year's playoff as being very wide-open, in both conferences. There's no juggernaut. Everybody has significant issues.

[Ksyrup]

All sorts of smoke about Harbaugh to the Raiders if he's offered the job.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Kansas City, yes, although it wouldn't shock me if they didn't get there. But why Green Bay? I don't think they're peaking now, I think they peaked closer to mid-season. I don't think they were impressive the last month ... I'd take them if I had to take a favorite just due to home-field, but *only* for that reason.

I view this year's playoff as being very wide-open, in both conferences. There's no juggernaut. Everybody has significant issues.

Everyone's kindof got the Chiefs-Bills winner in the Super Bowl, right? Like no one's really expecting Tennessee or Cincinnati to be in their way, barring something crazy with COVID or something.

SI

[Carman Bulldog]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Everyone's kindof got the Chiefs-Bills winner in the Super Bowl, right? Like no one's really expecting Tennessee or Cincinnati to be in their way, barring something crazy with COVID or something.

SI

I dunno, I kind of feel that any of the eight teams could make the Super Bowl. I agree that if I had to handicap it, Chiefs and Bills are 1-2 in the AFC. But the Bengals had an impressive win against the Chiefs in Week 17 in a game that KC needed to have to get the bye. The Titans meanwhile have wins against both the Chiefs and Bills this season.

[Brian Swartz]

Agreed. I would say every remaining team in the AFC has, say, a 10% chance of reaching the Super Bowl or better. I think KC has the inside track, but it's not a 'I'll be stunned if they don't make it' situation.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Twitter lied to me!

The funny part was supposed to be that the Redskins hired Jay Gruden instead of one of those three.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

barring something crazy with COVID or something.

SI

Pretty amazing that every NFL player got 100% immunity from COVID as soon as the playoffs started. What a fortunate coincidence for the league!

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Pretty amazing that every NFL player got 100% immunity from COVID as soon as the playoffs started. What a fortunate coincidence for the league!

It's a playoff TV miracle!

SI

[spleen1015]

I'd like to see Bengals vs Bills and 49ers vs Rams in the conference championship games. So, we're going to get Titans vs Chiefs and Packers vs Buccaneers.

We gonna get a Chiefs vs Buccaneers rematch!

[Ksyrup]

It feels like 49ers/Packers is the only obvious mismatch (assuming Garoppolo is further injured), but we'll see. I could see Brady getting crushed by the Rams D, but sometimes they just don't show up or fall apart at key times. I'm hoping Bills/Chiefs is as good as it could be. And I'm not sold on the Titans, so the Bengals should have a great opportunity, but they ARE the Bengals, so....

[Kodos]

I'm good with any of the AFC teams winning the bowl. The Rams would be okay from the NFC side.

[NobodyHere]

The MST3K fan in me will be rooting for the Packers.

[Honolulu_Blue]

I am fine with any of the AFC teams.

I want the Rams to lose just for the Lions' draft pick.

I want the Packers to lose, because I don't like the Packers, and Aaron Rodgers is a dick.

I am ambivalent about the Buccs. On the one hand, I am a bit tired of Tom Brady, on the other hand he's a Michigan man, so I won't root against him.

I am fine with the 49ers winning, since Deebo Samuel was so critical to my fantasy team winning the championship this year.

[JPhillips]

Crappy QB play by TN vs crappy o-line play by Cincy.

[JPhillips]

So far the crap O-line.

Both teams have to feel pretty good going into half thinking they can make adjustments and run away with the game.