NFL 2021 Regular Season Thread

[Ksyrup]

Watt either got racked or he might have a groin injury. Didn't look good coming off the field.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Watt either got racked or he might have a groin injury. Didn't look good coming off the field.

On the replay, you could see he jumped and came down nuts first on the QB's knee.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

On the replay, you could see he jumped and came down nuts first on the QB's knee.

For decades I kept wondering why they called it "sacking the quarterback". Finally I get it.

[spleen1015]

What a disappointing season. I don't know how a team with so many great players can lay turds like today against Jacksonville.

Back to not giving two shits.

[bhlloy]

I know the first overall pick doesn’t have the same cache when there’s not a great QB at the top but man, can’t help thinking if that TD means the Lions miss out on Hutchinson they will look back and regret it

[Ksyrup]

Frickin' Lions.

[Brian Swartz]

So Detroit wins three games. None of them against bad teams, and two of them against playoff teams.

Because of course they do.

[JPhillips]

Are the colts really going to get into the playoffs after that due to a BAL/PIT tie?

[Solecismic]

They're only eliminated with a Pittsburgh win. The tie is their best outcome here - otherwise they need a Miami win as well because of the Baltimore HtH sweep. (All this requires a Las Vegas win tonight).

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Are the colts really going to get into the playoffs after that due to a BAL/PIT tie?

No.
Pittsburgh needs to win to get ahead of Indianapolis, with a tie, they'll end up tied with Indianapolis with a 9-8 (8-7-2 is the same as 9-8) record and in that scenario Indianapolis has the conference record tie-breaker.
Baltimore needs to win, obviously. With a win does jump ahead of Indianapolis on tie-breakers, but that can be turned around if Miami manages to win tonight, or if the Raiders lose to the Chargers.
A tie knocks them both out.

[Solecismic]

A tie does knock both Baltimore and Pittsburgh out (which is why Pittsburgh just went for it - nice play from Roethlisberger).

[cuervo72]

I don't get how you can't beat a team that can't pass the ball further than five yards.

[Solecismic]

Huge run there. Not sure why Pittsburgh was playing so conservative - they wouldn't get the ball back and a tie is as bad as a loss. They were in FG range, but not close enough.

Still wondering... every five yards is critical. What is Tomlin thinking here?

[Swaggs]

Awesome win! Definitely will be watching tonight.

[MIJB#19]

Playoffs Scenarios for week 18
What's still remaining:

Tennessee
win -> #1
Tennessee beats Kansas City on hth

Kansas City
win + Tennessee win -> #2
Tennessee beats Kansas City on hth

Cincinnati
loss + Buffalo loss + New England loss -> #3
loss + Buffalo win/tie -> #4
loss + New England win/tie -> #4
Cincinnati beats Buffalo on conference record
New England beats Cincinnati on common games

Buffalo
win -> #3
tie + New England loss/tie -> #3
tie + New England win -> #5
loss + New England loss -> #4
loss + New England win/tie + LA Chargers vs Las Vegas tie -> #5
loss + New England win/tie + LA Chargers vs Las Vegas has a winner -> #6
Buffalo beats New England on division record
Cincinnati beats Buffalo on conference record
LA Chargers beats Buffalo on conference record
Las Vegas beats Buffalo on conference record

New England
win + Buffalo loss/tie -> #3
win + Buffalo win -> #5
tie + Buffalo loss -> #3
tie + Buffalo win/tie -> #5
loss + Las Vegas loss/tie vs LA Chargers -> #5
loss + Las Vegas win vs LA Chargers -> #6
Buffalo beats New England on division record
New England beats Cincinnati on common games
New England beats LA Chargers on hth
Las Vegas beats New England on common games

Indianapolis
loss + Pittsburgh win -> no playoffs

LA Chargers
win + Buffalo loss + New England win/tie -> #5
win + Buffalo win/tie -> #6
win + New England loss -> #6
tie -> #6
loss -> no playoffs
LA Chargers beats Las Vegas on hth
LA Chargers beats Buffalo on conference record
New England beats LA Chargers on hth in 2way
LA Chargers beats Pittsburgh on hth

Las Vegas
win + Buffalo loss + New England loss -> #5
win + Buffalo win/tie -> #6
win + New England win/tie -> #6
tie -> #7
loss -> no playoffs
LA Chargers beats Las Vegas on hth
Las Vegas beats Buffalo on conference record
Las Vegas beats New England on common games
Las Vegas beats Pittsburgh on hth

Pittsburgh
win + LA Chargers - Las Vegas has a winner -> #7
win + LA Chargers - Las Vegas tie-> no playoffs
LA Chargers beats Pittsburgh on hth
Las Vegas beats Pittsburgh on hth


Green Bay
loss -> #1
Green Bay beats LA Rams on hth in 2way, the 3way with Tampa Bay goes to the same 2way on conference record
Green Bay beats Tampa Bay on conference record

LA Rams
win -> #2
tie + Tampa Bay loss/tie -> #2
tie + Tampa Bay win -> #3
loss + Arizona loss/tie + Tampa Bay loss -> #3
loss + Arizona loss/tie + Tampa Bay win/tie -> #4
loss + Arizona win -> #5
Arizona beats LA Rams on division record
Green Bay beats LA Rams on hth in 2way, the 3way with Tampa Bay goes to the same 2way on conference record
Dallas beats LA Rams on conference record
LA Rams beats Tampa Bay on hth in 2way, LA Rams beats Tampa Bay on conference record in 3way with Green Bay, both lose to Dallas on conference record in 3way

Tampa Bay
win + LA Rams loss/tie -> #2
win + LA Rams win -> #3
tie + LA Rams loss -> #2
tie + LA Rams win/tie -> #3
loss + LA Rams win/tie -> #3
loss + LA Rams loss -> #4
Green Bay beats Tampa Bay on conference record
LA Rams beats Tampa Bay on hth in 2way, LA Rams beats Tampa Bay on conference record in 3way with Green Bay, both lose to Dallas on conference record in 3way
Tampa Bay beats Dallas on hth in 2way, but Dallas beats Tampa Bay on conference record in 3way with LA Rams
Arizona beats Tampa Bay on conference record

Dallas
win + LA Rams loss + Tampa Bay loss + Arizona loss/tie -> #2
win + LA Rams loss + Tampa Bay loss + Arizona win -> #4
win + LA Rams loss + Tampa Bay win/tie + Arizona loss/tie -> #3
win + LA Rams loss + Tampa Bay win/tie + Arizona win -> #4
win + LA Rams win/tie -> #4
Dallas beats LA Rams on conference record
Tampa Bay beats Dallas on hth in 2way, but Dallas beats Tampa Bay on conference record in 3way with LA Rams
Arizona beats Dallas on hth in 2way tie, but Dallas beats Arizona on conference record in 3way with Tampa Bay

Arizona
win + LA Rams loss + Tampa Bay loss -> #2
win + LA Rams loss + Tampa Bay win/tie -> #3
win + LA Rams win/tie -> #5
loss/tie -> #5
Arizona beats LA Rams on division record
Arizona beats Tampa Bay on conference record
Arizona beats Dallas on hth in 2way tie, but Dallas beats Arizona on conference record in 3way with Tampa Bay


San Francisco
win/tie -> #6
loss + New Orleans loss/tie -> #7
loss + New Orleans win -> no playoffs
San Francisco beats Philadelphia on hth in 2way, but Philadelphia beats San Francisco on conference record in 3way with New Orleans
New Orleans beats San Francisco on conference record

Philadelphia
loss + San Francisco loss + New Orleans win -> #6
loss + San Francisco win/tie -> #7
loss + New Orleans loss/tie -> #7
San Francisco beats Philadelphia on hth in 2way, but Philadelphia beats San Francisco on conference record in 3way with New Orleans
Philadelphia beats New Orleans on hth in 2way tie, both beat San Francisco on conference record in 3way

New Orleans
win + San Francisco loss -> #7
any other scenario -> no playoffs
New Orleans beats San Francisco on conference record
Philadelphia beats New Orleans on hth in 2way tie, both beat San Francisco on conference record in 3way

[MIJB#19]

So, the tie scenario for both the Chargers and the Raiders to go into the playoffs is still on. And the loser of the game will give Pittsburgh the last wild card.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Huge run there. Not sure why Pittsburgh was playing so conservative - they wouldn't get the ball back and a tie is as bad as a loss. They were in FG range, but not close enough.

Still wondering... every five yards is critical. What is Tomlin thinking here?

Tomlin isn’t a very good or smart coach. Yeah a 36 yarder is a gimme basically but I think it’s like an XP which is 93%

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I hate the NFL...

...and will probably watch it next week.

This times 100

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by stevew

Tomlin isn’t a very good or smart coach. Yeah a 36 yarder is a gimme basically but I think it’s like an XP which is 93%

Tomlin has a reputation for not doing strategy well at the end of games, but the important part is he knew a tie was as bad as a loss. So he got the important one right.

As for whether he's a good coach... the record speaks for itself. He has won a lot of games - never has a truly bad year like most coaches.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by stevew

Tomlin isn’t a very good or smart coach. Yeah a 36 yarder is a gimme basically but I think it’s like an XP which is 93%

Steelers fans so spoiled. Tomlin is a great head coach. I'd take him over almost anyone in the NFL.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Danny

Steelers fans so spoiled. Tomlin is a great head coach. I'd take him over almost anyone in the NFL.

This times a million.

[AlexB]

The co-comm in the MIA-NE game just said Kendrick Bourne is close to an incentive on his contract… he just needs 8 receptions for 250,000 yards. That could be tough!

[stevew]

I guess all the advanced stats that show Tomlin is a comically bad in game decision maker can be discarded because he's great at firing people up!

[Solecismic]

Just thinking about today's games - so much less seems to be on the line today than usual, even with the teams more packed together in record.

The highlights of week 18:

- a 2-14 team knocks a 9-7 team out of the playoffs.
- an 11-5 team beats a 4-12 team to earn a bye.
- an 8-8 team has a chance for a wild card if it beats a 7-9 team.
- a 9-7 team needs to beat a 12-4 team to secure a wild-card spot, but chances are increased because of the potential for a rematch next week.
- an 8-7-1 team beats an 8-8 team in overtime with a playoff spot on the line.
- the featured game of the week is two 9-7 teams playing for a playoff spot - but if they tie, both teams get in and there might be controversy.

I don't like the 14-team playoffs for two reasons:

- Fewer good teams are playing for byes late in the season.
- eight losses, which is the the spot where you might be in, might be out, feels like a truly mediocre team that I don't need to see in the playoffs.

But I guess the extra wild-card game was worth some money to the league, so...

[bhlloy]

Guess I shouldn't be surprised at Steeler fans coming out and still hating on Tomlin despite him dragging a team with a finished QB who finished tied for Zach Wilson for 30th in the league in YPA to the playoffs.

He can coach any team I support any time.

[Carman Bulldog]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

...And Fangio fired. Good.

Broncos had a good defence. I think those that think they are just a good QB away underestimate the defence regressing under a new head coach. There's a reason Fangio won't be unemployed long and could probably have a DC job tomorrow. That's not to say without question they should have kept him but it's not as simple as plug-and-play a new coach and starting QB.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Just thinking about today's games - so much less seems to be on the line today than usual, even with the teams more packed together in record.

The highlights of week 18:

- a 2-14 team knocks a 9-7 team out of the playoffs.
- an 11-5 team beats a 4-12 team to earn a bye.
- an 8-8 team has a chance for a wild card if it beats a 7-9 team.
- a 9-7 team needs to beat a 12-4 team to secure a wild-card spot, but chances are increased because of the potential for a rematch next week.
- an 8-7-1 team beats an 8-8 team in overtime with a playoff spot on the line.
- the featured game of the week is two 9-7 teams playing for a playoff spot - but if they tie, both teams get in and there might be controversy.

I don't like the 14-team playoffs for two reasons:

- Fewer good teams are playing for byes late in the season.
- eight losses, which is the the spot where you might be in, might be out, feels like a truly mediocre team that I don't need to see in the playoffs.

But I guess the extra wild-card game was worth some money to the league, so...

While I definitely don't disagree with the logic here, it's worth noting we have seen 8-8 and 7-9 division winners making the playoffs before and we also saw a 9-7 team win a Super Bowl and another come very close in the last 10 years.

[sabotai]

Looking at the season standings for the Steelers during Tomlin's tenure, it's pretty rare that the Steelers would have a season where neither the offense nor defense were ranked in the top 10 in points for or given up.

Since the 2007 season

Seasons with a top 10 offense or defense: 12
Seasons with both outside the top 10: 3

15 seasons
Record: 154-85-2
Playoff Appearances: 9
Division Titles: 7
1 SB win and 1 SB lose


15 years as a head coach, I'm sure is easy to compile a set of "lowlights" of his worst decisions, but that would be true for any coach that has been in charge that long. Even Belichick. Like Bill Parcells said, you are what your record says you are, and Mike Tomlin's Steelers win 2 games for every 1 they lose (or tie). Few fanbases wouldn't immediately kick their guy to the curb for 15 years of that.

Edit: 154 wins, pro-football-reference hadn't updated yet

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Guess I shouldn't be surprised at Steeler fans coming out and still hating on Tomlin despite him dragging a team with a finished QB who finished tied for Zach Wilson for 30th in the league in YPA to the playoffs.

He can coach any team I support any time.

They might figure it out when he takes the short trip west in a couple of decades and gets to wear a yellow jacket. In the meantime, 154-85-2 in 15 seasons with a ring...

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

While I definitely don't disagree with the logic here, it's worth noting we have seen 8-8 and 7-9 division winners making the playoffs before and we also saw a 9-7 team win a Super Bowl and another come very close in the last 10 years.

Do we want more 9-7 (now 9-8) teams in the playoffs, then?

The uncomfortable part of this is that upsets in the playoffs are fairly common. That bye is worth playing for. The playoff structure change (reducing the byes) may be the worst part of this.

When you have a short schedule, unlike the other major sports, you get to focus on the regular season. I think that's a big part of why the NFL is the #1 league in the world. And to have that, good teams shouldn't be able to coast to the end, figuring the difference between #2 seed and #7 seed really isn't worth that much.

[AlexB]

The thing I hate is the imbalance that half the league get 9 home games, half only 8. Yes, it reverses the next year, but every year 16 teams have an unfair advantage

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by AlexB

The thing I hate is the imbalance that half the league get 9 home games, half only 8. Yes, it reverses the next year, but every year 16 teams have an unfair advantage

At least they figured out all the extra non-conference games should be at the AFC stadium (NFC next year).

[AlexB]

TBF I didn’t know that - that does actually make sense

[spleen1015]

I wonder what the records are for those uneven games.

I don't care about 9-8 or 10-7 or 8-8-1. We came into the weekend with 18 teams either in or a chance at the playoffs. Makes for a fun weekend of football.

[Carman Bulldog]

Originally Posted by stevew

I guess all the advanced stats that show Tomlin is a comically bad in game decision maker can be discarded because he's great at firing people up!

Absolutely, when you have the third highest winning percentage of active coaches (and McVay has only coached 1/3 as long as Tomlin - so really 2nd in winning percentage behind only Belichick).

While game management may not be his strength, you can't just undermine how he maximizes the performances he gets out of guys. It's not just "firing people up." It's building a culture, personality management and creating an environment were individuals can achieve their maximum level of success.

How many other teams or coaches have gone 15 years without a losing season? When you've been coaching for 15 years, to quote Bill Parcells, "You are what your record says you are." And Tomlin's record says he's a very good coach.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Danny

Steelers fans so spoiled. Tomlin is a great head coach. I'd take him over almost anyone in the NFL.

So true. He’s a historically great coach and not even 50 years old. He’s got the team on the cusp of the playoffs after essentially replacing the entire o-line from last season, losing two of their marquee players to injury this year (JuJu and Tuitt), and having a QB that can barely throw the ball more than 15 yards. He’d have another job in ten seconds if he was ever let go.

Steelers fans don’t seem to recognize that this is the beginning of a rebuilding phase. Every team goes through stuff, but they were pretty set to go on a good run and then AB and Levon Bell both got unhappy with their contracts and left, and Ryan Shazier had his career ending injury. I think, between losing those three prematurely, and the fact that they gave up so many picks to get Devin Bush (traded up to replace Shazier and looks like a miss) and Minkah (has definitely been a hit), their depth has been shot (particularly on the o-line). I’d expect the next two years to be rough on offense while they build back up.

[JPhillips]

I know the Bills have a great defense, but Zach Wilson looks completely lot most of the time.

[Carman Bulldog]

Without Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers are a remarkable 18-15-1 with their BACKUP quarterback starting during Tomlin's tenure. That includes three seasons (1-2) where it was a Week 17 start where they rested the starters, so arguably 17-13-1 in games they were playing to win.

Dennis Dixon (2-1)
Charlie Batch (3-3)
Byron Leftwich (0-1)
Michael Vick [35 yrs old] (2-1)
Landry Jones (3-2)
Mason Rudolph (5-4-1)
Duck Hodges (3-3)

The performance that Tomlin manages to get out of his team when the backup is playing is ridiculous.

He's also getting these performances, both with and without Ben, with a roster built without any top draft picks. The Steelers have averaged the 22nd overall pick during Tomlin's tenure, the only top 10 pick being Devin Bush in 2019 at 10th and the next highest pick during that time coming in at 15th.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

So the maximum pain scenario I see for the Saints is to beat the Falcons and to have the Rams leading the 49ers, but to have the Seahawks destroy the Cards, and when the Rams see that their game is pointless, they let their foot off the gas in the 4th quarter and the 49ers end up coming back and winning.

The only thing worse would be the 49ers pulling the comeback in overtime.

[Danny]

Not to mention he did that playing in the same conference as one of the all time great dynasties

[Danny]

Beckham got a new target strategy. Run a route right near kupp and try and catch his balls

[NobodyHere]

Never have I been so disappointed in the Lions winning. The first pick in the draft was theirs for the taking.

[bhlloy]

Looking at the stat above about Tomlin, the job Sean Payton has done this year with a couple of castoffs, a guy who everyone thought wasn't a QB and a 5th round pick shouldn't be downplayed as well.

Shame they won't make the playoffs. And it's a tragedy they could never put a defense nearly this good around Brees.

[albionmoonlight]

At what point are we going to stop pretending that Sean McVay is a great coach because he ran some play action jet motion a few times three years ago?

[Solecismic]

NFC

1 GB Bye
5 ARI at 4 LAR
6 SF at 3 DAL
7 PHI at 2 TB

AFC

(LV beats LAC)
1 TEN Bye
5 LV at 4 CIN
6 NE at 3 BUF
7 PIT at 2 KC

(LAC beats LV)
1 TEN Bye
5 NE at 4 CIN
6 LAC at 3 BUF
7 PIT at 2 KC

(tiemageddon)
1 TEN Bye
5 NE at 4 CIN
6 LAC at 3 BUF
7 LV at 2 KC

[spleen1015]

Rooting for Tiemageddon!

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

At what point are we going to stop pretending that Sean McVay is a great coach because he ran some play action jet motion a few times three years ago?

If they don't get to at least the Conference Championship this year after giving the keys to Goff then mortgaging the future to get Stafford and other weapons, I think you might see people starting to go down that road - rightly so.

[Solecismic]

One more...

(tiemageddon with special sauce*)
1 TEN Bye
5 NE at 4 CIN
6 PIT at 3 BUF
7 IND at 2 KC

* - in response to the outrage related to the Chargers and Raiders kneeling out overtime, Roger Goodell assigns both teams a loss (or simply eliminates them from playoffs consideration - it works out the same way in each case). So, Colts fans... hope?

[MIJB#19]

Playoffs Scenarios for week 18
One more game to go...

12-5 Tennessee
win -> #1
Tennessee beats Kansas City on hth

12-5 Kansas City
win + Tennessee win -> #2
Tennessee beats Kansas City on hth

11-6 Buffalo
win + Cincinnati loss -> #3

10-7 Cincinnati
loss + Buffalo win -> #4

10-7 New England
loss + Indianapolis loss + Las Vegas loss/tie vs LA Chargers -> #5
loss + Indianapolis loss + Las Vegas win vs LA Chargers -> #6
New England beats LA Chargers on hth
Las Vegas beats New England on common games

9-7 (+1 game) LA Chargers
win + Indianapolis loss -> #6
tie + Indianapolis loss -> #6
loss -> no playoffs
LA Chargers beats Las Vegas on hth
New England beats LA Chargers on hth
LA Chargers beats Pittsburgh on hth

9-7 (+1 game) Las Vegas
win + Indianapolis loss -> #5
tie + Indianapolis loss -> #7
loss -> no playoffs
LA Chargers beats Las Vegas on hth
Las Vegas beats New England on common games
Las Vegas beats Pittsburgh on hth

9-7-1 Pittsburgh
win + Indianapolis loss + LA Chargers - Las Vegas has a winner -> #7
win + Indianapolis loss + LA Chargers - Las Vegas tie -> no playoffs
LA Chargers beats Pittsburgh on hth
Las Vegas beats Pittsburgh on hth

9-8 Indianapolis
loss + Pittsburgh win -> no playoffs

8-9 Baltimore
loss -> no playoffs
(or Miami win -> no playoffs)


13-4 Green Bay
loss -> #1
Green Bay beats Tampa Bay on conference record

13-4 Tampa Bay
win + LA Rams loss -> #2
Green Bay beats Tampa Bay on conference record

12-5 LA Rams
loss + Arizona loss + Tampa Bay win + Dallas win -> #4
Dallas beats LA Rams on conference record

12-5 Dallas
win + LA Rams loss + Tampa Bay win + Arizona loss -> #3
Dallas beats LA Rams on conference record

11-6 Arizona
loss -> #5

10-7 San Francisco
win -> #6

9-8 Philadelphia
loss + New Orleans win -> #7
Philadelphia beats New Orleans on hth

9-8 New Orleans
win + San Francisco win -> no playoffs
Philadelphia beats New Orleans on hth

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

NFC

1 GB Bye
5 ARI at 4 LAR
6 SF at 3 DAL
7 PHI at 2 TB

AFC

(LV beats LAC)
1 TEN Bye
5 LV at 4 CIN
6 NE at 3 BUF
7 PIT at 2 KC

(LAC beats LV)
1 TEN Bye
5 NE at 4 CIN
6 LAC at 3 BUF
7 PIT at 2 KC

(tiemageddon)
1 TEN Bye
5 NE at 4 CIN
6 LAC at 3 BUF
7 LV at 2 KC

That's probably a better way to put it, yes.